NFA LIVE: NO PIVOT FED = BTC SIDEWAYS FOR LONGER? PORTFOLIO RISK & TOP ALTS.

Not Financial Advice Episode 47: Jerome Hawkish Powell made it clear. Higher for longer and NO PIVOT! What does this mean for 2024 through Q2? Also, how about Bitcoin and the broader crypto market in terms of portfolio allocation and of course….Bitcoin Dominance!

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0:00 – Hellos and Introduction
1:40 – Bitcoin dominance and the Federal Reserve
9:55 – Market predictions for Q1 and Q2 2024
24:10 – Risk Adjustment and Alternative investment options
37:08 – Managing burnout in the crypto industry

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⏰ June 12th, 2022 (11am). Take ALL crypto OFF of Celsius ASAP! – https://youtu.be/4QzIzg1HtDU
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⏰ June 22nd, 2022 – Take ALL crypto OFF of Voyager ASAP! – https://youtu.be/LSxeXd5yCEU
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Everybody Welcome to the weekly NFA live show I am joined as ever guy from coin Bureau guy welcome back to the show for our 46 or 47th episode something like that and of course good to be here yeah right we made it we made it to the bare

Market and of course as as ever Bitcoin dominants Ben for many of the cryptoverse thanks for stopping by guilty is charged Jens Jens we got some I picked some interesting questions for everybody because I the way that that the Market’s going no one really knows of course but

I’d like to just get your insights about what exactly is happening so the first thing I want to talk about is this yesterday and I want to I want to thank you Ben for actually posting all this stuff on on your X account because I follow you and it’s makes things a lot

Easier all the things that Dron pal has said so jome Powell came out yesterday and he sounded pretty darn Haw hawkish now because of that the markets dropped off yesterday I mean we could see a little bit of a of a decline in the crypto Market itself and now that we

Know I mean not for a fact things can change that March as he has said is is not going to bring us any Ray Cuts well the crypto and market and macro markets trade sideways for at least this entire first and second quarter or do you think

Things will be just fine and actually we’ll see a marvelous Bull Run heading into the Bitcoin having which is in roughly 84 days or so so I want to get your opinion on that first of all you know what so Ben I’ll start with you and

Then guy if you give some insight as well and we’ll go from there let me go ahead and share my screen that’s a good idea can you see it I can see it great yeah I just wanted to look at a couple of different things so I mean there’s there’s often sort of

Like a a preh having drop right where you kind of in the first few months of the having year we don’t really do a whole lot and now this having year has been a little different in some regards because we had the spot ETF so there’s a

Lot of hype going into into the having year but then once the having year arrives we often get sort of a dip and a lot of times we don’t really make any substantial moves until a few months into the having year right I mean that’s pretty standard um so I I think it

Certainly could play out um like that there’s other ways to look at it as well um like looking at the ROI this is one of the interesting charts like Roi after cycle Peak and let me just get rid of first cycle like so in the current cycle we’re actually ahead of both prior

Cycles right in the green line right so I mean I I do sort of like last cycle we were we were also ahead at one point and eventually we got sort of the mean reversion I do think eventually we will get some form of mean reversion back

Down to where we should be I mean you can see both prior Cycles were not this elevated from the peak um at this stage but history shows it can you know we can stay elevated for a long time before we we ultimately get that mean reversion

And then you can also look at it you know Roi from from the the lows of 2022 and if you look at it like that and we just look at the last um if we just look at say like the last couple of if you measure it like that we’re sort

Of right in between where those those last two cycles were so I mean it of seems like we are where we normally are um measured from the peak it it sort of seems like we’re ahead slightly ahead and I I did a video recently that looks at um the what was

It the uh value days destroyed multiple so it’s an onchain metric it’s actually created by um txmc he’s got a pretty Twitter account um I would encourage people to follow him if if they don’t but this it shows that we are a bit a bit more heated than we have

Normally been at this stage of the having year right like it normally in early having year uh this metric is a lot more subdued um and you can see all all prior having years it’s a lot more subdued this time we’re we’re actually quite a

Bit further up and I I almost wonder if if one of the reason reasons for that if you go back to that like year-to dat Ro chart of Bitcoin and you look at you look at 2023 2023 was unlike most prehab years where we basically just went up the

Entire year um and and actually yeah I know Rob’s excited about that but actually what what what 2023 looks like more so than a preh having year if you average out all prior election years so having years you can see 2023 looks a lot more similar to

Having year returns than it you say you know taking the average of 2015 and 2019 and those out right you can see the average 2015 and 2019 is way down here in 2023 Bitcoin exceeded what it typically gets in a prehab year so you know there’s some elements that say we

Are a bit you know a bit um heated so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to just see us go through a a a cool off phase um before you know before the having and that that is quite common with that said um I I will remind people that when

Bitcoin gets moving like it has been it’s really hard to predict where the actual local top is so um I’m not going to try to stand in the way of it if it if it wants to go higher I think if it does go higher uh it could just be sort

Of chasing the next narrative which I know a lot of people were sort of flipping to ethereum for the spot the spot ETF narrative for eth that could be coming around in May but the problem with that is that the having narrative comes before May so I I still think that

Um as you mentioned earlier I still think that uh the dominance will flow excellent response so Guy having heard of all that can you uh d a little cold water on Ben’s enthusiasm and bullishness and give us a little bit of a of a slight one of course I’m kidding

Ben Ben’s like I’m not bullish what are you talking about but uh but but what do you think about that because I got to tell you like like the thing that that you said uh Ben was about you know we’re we’re ahead of the curve right now I

Mean as far as like the preh having or the having as based on the having years but guy what do you see how do you feel what’s going to happen as far as like first quarters q1 Q2 of this year well I think uh I think it’s good

To sort of I’ll frame it a bit in in response to in response to what we saw from Jerome yesterday you know Jerome being hawkish and rate Cuts you know no rate Cuts this month which I don’t think anyone realistically expected um so whether or not we see you know whether

Or not we see markets going up or trading sideways for the rest of the quarter I think I mean really depends on on the data that we get that the FED gets between now and then because they’ve always said uh that they’re data dependent above all else that’s what

Jerome that’s one of Jerome’s many talking points isn’t it it’s like they’ll watch they’ll watch the data and make decisions from that so and obviously I think you know what the markets do if they if they pump or or chop sideways depends on the possibility of of rate Cuts being on the

Table um so if that data shows inflation continuing to come down employment starting to weaken I think that’s a crucial element of it um as well as a slowing in GDP growth then rate Cuts could very well be you know back on the table and I think um by remember rightly

The CME seems to be you know factoring them in March I think there’s a fairly low chance but I think May is you know more realistic uh that we’ll see them by then um and of course it ties into it ties into long-term interest rates as well I think there are Rumblings that

You know that the FED is going to stop tapering um which should take pressure off those long-term interest rates um because you know this tapering in you know the the FED is running off tens of billions of dollars in bonds every month um so you know I think if if if the FED

Uh will stop that taper then uh then then the those you know those long-term interest rates should fall um the interesting thing is that you know long-term interest rates still came down you know still down I think after yesterday’s announcement which in theory should be you know should be bullish for

Markets if they if they keep falling um but I think you know again it comes back to the data and I think I think it’s jobs jobs data tomorrow um so yeah you know again as I say if we see if we see a sign of employment starting to weaken

On the back if those jobs numbers are you know are not great um then I think you know then the possibility of rate Cuts becomes more more likely and hence you know a a better chance that we’ll see up and up and to the right we’s see I got to tell you good

Responses I will tell you like I’m hoping I’m hoping for some sideways action because I feel like I never accumulate as much as I should have so I think if there’s sideways action it’ll be boring people will drop off that’s just pretty much how it is but again uh

This is where all the riches are essentially made people can accumulate not during the massive Bull Run blowoff top it’s usually around these times when people start to really uh make all their funds moving forward so excellent response gentlemen I appreciate it how about let’s switch gears and talk about

Great gray scale so apparently we did a show just not too long where we talked about how great this Bitcoin ETF is and everybody was very bullish and it was quite lackluster to put it mildly but that was because of the outflows from FTX and essentially grayscale but now it

Looks like that uh the outflows themselves are actually slowing down so will we see this type of Supply shock that people are all all talking about because as things slow down you know and then uh the other big nine ETF inflows so we can see this is a chart here from

Hey Apollo the trend is looking pretty positive as far as the grayscale Bitcoin outflows look at that I’m not a TA person but I think this looks good guy what do you think here are we gonna see that mythical Supply shock that the pendants keep talking

About so Supply shock you mean you mean Supply hitting the excess Supply hitting the market to to tank the price it could be excess excess Supply or it could be that hey that the these outflows are starting to slow down and maybe these ETFs actually get bought up

By the black rocks and the fidelities and things like that and then there’s only so much that that can actually go around on the OTC desks which would be coinbase and whichever ones are being hold Hing it yeah yeah yeah of course I mean as we I think we talked about this

Last week didn’t we we said um that the the outflows from grayscale you know they were they they were finite um and there I think there there’s always going to be there’s always going to be you know a number number of people who decide for one reason or another um to

To keep their to keep their uh you know keep holding gbtc which doesn’t make a huge amount of sense to me but still obviously some people are going to do that um and yeah in terms of the other ETFs I think again we touched on this idea that it’ll probably be a slow

Accumulation you know it’ll be this slow process of investment advisors talking to their clients mentioning these Bitcoin ETFs you know their clients going away and thinking about it and gradually I think you know I I don’t think it’s going to be a torrent I think

It’s going to be a sort of steady a steady trickle of uh of of money flowing into these ETFs so you know that will that will eat up some of the supply um but of course there other there are other uh sources of of Supply there that

Could hit the market I mean I think uh prices took a dip a few days ago didn’t they when when the US government did its uh did its sort of regular thing of announcing that it was going to sell some um some of its uh Bitcoin Holdings

Obviously you know seized from Silk Road and what have you um and actually interestingly I saw a couple of other headlines kind of in that uh in that vein um just over the last couple of days I think uh German authorities seized something in the region of sort

Of 50k Bitcoin which is you know billions of dollars worth of bitcoin um and actually the UK uh also I think C 69k uh B c as well so um you know there’s if presumably if they look to sell then then that’s a fairly Hefty

Amount of uh of BTC that could hit the market um my my friendly enough my theory on this is that uh because central banks are going to be allowed to hold um Bitcoin on their balance sheets from the 1 of January 25 uh what we’re seeing actually now is is nation states

Uh you know basically seeding their uh seeding their their Bitcoin stashes but that’s that’s pure speculation on my part um and of course you’ve also got things like Mount gox you know I know Mount gox is thing that just won’t go away but I mean I’ve seen reports that

You know those payments are reportedly you know have reportedly starting up started up some creditors have actually got their money back um so there’s that there’s also the Light selling from the liks of Celsius although I think Celsius is mostly selling mostly seems to be unstaking and selling e

Um and of course you mentioned Rob FTX as well they they were the ones offloading a lot of gbtc I presume they have some regular BTC that they’re going to look to offload and of course I think there was an announcement either yesterday or earlier today that they

Expect to to pay back all their creditors and I think that’s something that’s you know they’re talking about happening this year so there are certainly there is certainly some some excess Supply sort of sloshing around out there that could that could hit the market and could suppress the price um

But yeah I mean whether of course you know as I say like German and you know the UK Germany and the US government would be much better off uh hodling but whether they’ll actually do that I mean you know the US government has sold off

A lot of Bitcoin already so I don’t see why they won’t sell off anymore um and of course you know you can add to that I think one of the one of the things that helped sort of take the take the wind out of the uh ETF inflows was the fact

That a lot of Bitcoin Wales uh sold into that you know sold the news um of the ETFs and we could still see that um we could also see I wonder as well possibly selling coming from miners because obviously they’re looking at this uh you know they’ve got the upcoming Haring and

That is going to be that is going to be potentially quite tough on them um some miners I think are really going to get hit hard by that uh so I think that’s something to bear in mind as well you know will they look to sell some some

Bitcoin will they be forced to sell some Bitcoin to you know to cover costs ahead of this ahead of this sort of Supply shock that they’re going to experience you know more uh more pointedly than anyone than anyone else so yeah there’s a few there’s a few sources of excess

BTC out there I suppose man excellent excellent everything there guy I mean you really laid it out pretty well go Ben do you want to try to follow that one with any kind of what else is there to say covered the interesting thing about FTX which is

Kind of a bummer for people is that um I think they’re they’re getting paid out theoretically but only at what the price was back then so like if you were going to be someone if you were gonna be someone that was just going to sell your crypto at the bottom then you’re

Basically getting what you would have gotten but if you’re the person that was gonna you know huddle it um for the next you know year then you’re clearly taking a big haircut on that which you know kind of sucks for those people I mean it’s good news that you’re getting

Something back um but bad news that you’re not really getting back uh what you you know what you would have um yeah there have been some people that have posted some charts recently actually today um of of some sell pressure coming in from the miners um which I think is

Actually pretty standard anytime Bitcoin gets a you know a big run up in price in a short time the miners usually take advantage of that and and sell into it um but you know there there’s been several instances of that already this year and it it sort of slowed the price

Down but it didn’t you know it didn’t just completely send it back down right it sort of slowed the market down for a while um I think I mean you know guy covered you know the the supply side I think the other side is just the demand

Side will there you know will the demand be there um and that’s sort of the bigger question is you know as we get into later and later in the business the cycle right the closer and closer we get to rate Cuts we have to start weighing you know will people be able to

Speculate as much as they want to or are they going to be fighting other macro risks you know that that no one really wants to be fighting so that’s the other side of it so yeah I think guy covered all the supply side stuff important things to consider um the only other

Side is is the demand side and and we’ll see if if that can continue to come through I’d also be curious and I think I mentioned this before if the if the after the outflows from gbtc are sort of over do the inflows into the other ones

Continue at the same Pace or they also fall off um I don’t know I mean I I I think one of you guys mentioned like you know there’s I know there’s rules about like buying and selling too close but I don’t know if it’s considered the same

The same asset if you’re going from like one ETF to another one with different fees I don’t I don’t really know how yeah as as I understand it it is some form of like wash trading if you’re going to take any type of um deductions

Or uh tax benefits from it so if you’re gonna say yes I lost money you can’t go back into it if you say something like well I’m not going to claim anything on there you can get right back in but it’s a little bit a little bit murky but

That’s what I as I understand it again everybody can correct me the comment section which they love to do so uh of course we can go from there I mean like I think the market is a lot bigger than people think it is a lot of times like

If you think about it like think about back in like you know may of 2022 we had sailor announcing all these Bitcoin he was buying we had even even the uh what Luna they were backing yeah a lot of their stuff they had bought a lot of

Bitcoin and I mean everyone was super excited about that and then the market you know still ended up going down so I mean I’m not saying it it it’s going to play out in the same way I think a lot of the uh the crypto specific risks have

Been washed out already but it’s just a reminder that a lot of times the market is bigger than we than we think it is so just because you’re getting a few hundred million of of either inflows or outflows oftentimes the market doesn’t really move a whole lot in response to that

Yeah you know what I I I never thought about that like I mean sailor was really buying everything in in the having year or 20 well you know a little bit late 2020 2021 yeah and then and then we had Luna they they came on and then of

Course we had uh good old Elon Musk coming in and saying you know what we’re going to buy up Bitcoin as well and I think they they they rounded up around 60,000 Bitcoin and all of that you still take a look at the chart that you showed

And we’re like even above what we were before so yeah it is amazing uh just how far along we are so I I personally think at the risk of sounding very bullish this is gonna be a pretty darn good bull run but I could be wrong wrong many

Times and then before I move on the next one of course Rob I mean I think uh one you know you’re talk with talking about sailor and Elon Musk as being the sort of big buyers uh last time around and and Ben mentioning Terror um which is

You know they they yeah they were they bought a huge amount which they obviously then had to Nuke into the market but of course we’ve got a big we’ve got another big buyer this time around tether you know these guys are I mean they they’re allocating a

Proportion of their profits to bitcoin I mean we have to I guess we have to kind of take them up their word on that because they’re you know not the most transparent organization out there but I mean these are guys who made this company did you see that stat the other

Day te made more last quarter than Goldman Sachs absolutely mindblowing isn’t it so you know we’ve got we’ve got this this absolute Beast you know this two billion plus profit Beast um buying Bitcoin as well so I think that’s something to to you know to bear in mind on the on the

Uh on the demand side I mean it’s absolutely crazy and and like I say you you do have to sort of take them at their word for it um but if that’s you know if they really are buying that amount of Bitcoin I mean they’re making

Such insane profits um that is you know that is going to Hoover up a lot of a lot of BTC in the in the in the long term ladies and gentlemen do not adjust your television set we are very bullish today and that is uh not likely but uh

The these are the these are the data that we the data points that we look at and I will just to bring it back just to a little bit of reality as before everybody gets a little bit crazy London says it right uh LOL Mike novag Gratz

Luna to the Moon Tattoo so remember that that as we move into this this bull market we’re gonna see some crazy stuff and those will be one of those instances just like like novag Gratz with his nice Luna tattoo for whatever reason if if Paulo Arduino or someone like that comes

Out with a you know some C tattoo then then we’ll know we’re in trouble that’s what they call the top I think so yes that’s so just to just to piggy back on on what Ben was asking about about Minor uh the minors this is uh minor revenue and of course we see

These in in in the four-year time frames uh and yeah as soon as the having goes I mean essentially doing the same amount of work for half amount of of of the of the revenue and of course it just drops off so These Guys these you know these these Bitcoin miners everything starts

To go into a frenzy going going into uh I mean it it doesn’t look like a frenzy over here does it but it doesn’t look like that over on this side so as we get into it of course there’s going to be this is the great thing about the mining

Platform which is that as time goes on and the mining companies are not profitable the other mining companies shut down and because of that the difficulty rate drops and because of that the other miners are able to use their computational power and actually uh become competitive so that’s just how

It goes but remember there one thing it’s called ordinals and there’s a reason why the Bitcoin minor fees went Bonkers not too long ago and it uh Mr teal I forgot the CEO of of Mara came out on one of the uh talk shows or different podcasts and said yeah we’ve

Made more in Bitcoin mining fees for you know ordinals and transcription Services uh than we did for the actual rewards for for Bitcoin so just remember that there is a use case coming over there but a lot of Bitcoin Maxes don’t like it okay okay so that’ll take care of that

Piece anything to add before we move on great no didn’t think so all right next one this one and we got a couple to go but so we’ll speed up a little bit Kathy Wood of Arc Investments she say the optimal risk adjusted portfolio balance was 19.4% in

2023 in 2022 again risk adjusted 6.2% and in 2015 0.5% Ben I know you’re big on risk what do you think the appropriate risk adjusted portfolio should look like for 2024 and of course you we can’t give Financial advice we’re not financial advisors but how would you kind of divvy

This up as far as a risk adjusted portfolio yeah I mean I guess it first depends on like you know is it inter asset class intra asset class if if you’re and I know she’s talking about you know looking at it as a whole not just in crypto if you’re if you first

Look at it to take some you know some leeway with your question and and first talk about it like within crypto and then I’ll answer your other question um within crypto if you’re just looking at say a portfolio consisting of Bitcoin and eth your your sharp ratio so your

Sharp ratio is maximized so your risk adjusted returns are maximized with SE and this is between just Bitcoin and eth 76% Bitcoin and um 24% e if you’re trying to maximize the sortino ratio which does not punish negative volatility which I think makes more sense than the sharp ratio it’s 78%

Bitcoin 23% e and if you’re trying to minimize volatility which is kind of where I my risk super risk ofers self has has more So Gone to um it’s more like 93% Bitcoin um and only 7% e and again like so My Views have been that like you know ether Bitcoin is still

Struggling and and you know if you think about it like a last week it had had a pretty good run up and then this past week it just sort of sold off again um e you know sold off back to bitcoin so I I still think you know within crypto I I

Think being Bitcoin heavy I still think makes the most sense um and but there are some altcoins that that of course outperform so if if you’re looking to take on that risk uh just know that you know there’s there’s certainly a lot more risk in the altcoin market than

There is in Bitcoin um because even if you know even if there were some type of like Black Swan event or um geopolitical event or whatever it might be everything would take a hit but Bitcoin would more likely recover um than any random altcoin so I think within crypto you

Have to you know it makes really a lot of sense to stick mostly with Bitcoin and you could add on you know some other some other altcoins onto this and like calculate it out like you could add a couple of relics um that have been around for a while unfortunately you

Have to have coins that have been around for a while for the tool to work if they’ve only been to run one cycle it doesn’t really work but you can see that when you add in altcoins it it still calls for mostly Bitcoin right um poor

Litecoin still comes in at zero perc uh oh no I think the reason you know I really do think the reason is like the only time that Litecoin tends to durably outperform bitcoin is like the first half of its having year and and not even then like not even not always even then

Does it outperform it um and and so you have to be careful like you have to be careful with with some of the alt coins but again you can add in a lot in here and show that as far as like outside of crypto um what should be it really

Depends on I guess how how confident you are in the future of of of crypto I mean I’m pretty confident so my my ratio um for a while has been has been pretty elevated but I mean I think the I think the numbers that that Kathy put

Out are pretty reasonable like if you if you’re really Pro Bitcoin what did she say 20% yeah 19.6 20% yeah I mean yeah I think that’s I think that’s a you know a reasonable number if you as long as your outlook is sort of a multi-year Outlook

Like as long as you’re as long as you’re not going to be the person that’s going to like you know sell it if we if we drop you know 40% or something um but yeah if you have a longer term Outlook I I I think that’s fine I I don’t think

For for me personally I know there’s some people out there that are just like you know 90 % Bitcoin 100% Bitcoin and nothing else I I think that’s that’s too risky I I think for me um because the problem is is occasionally the market crashes right occasionally the market

Crashes and and if if the markets do crash you know like the S&P doesn’t you know like apple doesn’t crash as much as crypto right so you want some of your net worth I think in other assets that are not as likely to crash like 80% or

70% right I mean I mean we know they can go down 20 or 30% but they’re likely not going to go down 80% um so I think it makes some sense to have you know have have some spread out across you know index funds low expense ratio index

Funds um there’s actually a lot of research showing that the higher the expense ratio the less your performance because even sometimes the manager of the fund can be skilled but they that doesn’t always all it doesn’t typically offset the fees that they’re taking from you um so the lower the expense ratio I

Think the better so that’s what I go with you know Bitcoin I think having some in cash getting earning the risk-free rate uh in case there’s in case there are dips and and the market goes down I think that makes a lot of sense and you could also hedge too with

With some Commodities like um like you know gold and silver but those things those things move at a at a snail’s pace so don’t don’t look to those for to make you rich overnight what that’s all that’s all we’re here for Ben yeah I know believe I know that’s why people

Are here yeah yeah hey before guy I so I’m gonna same question for you before I go on uh Ben what else do you invest into because it’s it’s Bitcoin equities I know I mean Bitcoin um I I do have a tiny bit of of eth but it’s not it’s not

It’s I haven’t bought any eth um in in a couple in a few years because I just think it’s bleeding back to bitcoin so like I’m just kind of the under the impression if you’re going to buy anything just buy Bitcoin um I have index funds so like FZ Rox so

Low it’s basically a z% expense ratio Index Fund um that that covers the US markets there’s uh f fzilx f or fzx that’s the international market but um the United States Market has been drastically outperforming you know Global markets for a long time you know perhaps you

Could argue that there’s some type of mean reversion in play but that’s not been the case for a long time um so I still think that um and then I think there’s some other you know there’s definitely other companies like I mean like apple I think is you know I

Have of course I have I’ve had a position with them for I don’t I don’t I’m not a huge buyer of individual stocks to be completely honest I mostly just stick with index funds um but there are a few companies that I think like if

If I use their product like I I I can often have a um I often don’t feel bad having a position in that in that company um like apple I mean I have an iPhone I have a I mean like everything is um like everybody else in the planet

Well Le 60% or so right yeah and I and I’m not I’m not I mean I I know that I know that their stock could take a downturn if we have you know if if the economy slows down but I I’m not under the impression that they won’t survive

It right they’re gonna survive um whatever whatever happens so yeah and yeah just some other random um I mean so sometimes I’ll pick up positions in some of the minors um you know but yeah just sort of so essentially a more balanced portfolio guy same and also and

Also some cash I mean I know that’s sort of the joke but yeah and and also earning the the five and a half percent risk rate hey look everybody cash I don’t know about you but if I’m gonna do something uh illicit I’m not going to use the blockchain for everybody to see

It so if you’re cash is King in that situation guy same question two-parter before you you know we talk about that but what else are you investing into besides cryp and then what do you see as far like a balanced portfolio the same question about the Kathy

Wood well um in terms of what else I’m investing into other than crypto not a lot everything’s everything’s everything’s going into crypto at the moment I am keeping I am following Ben’s advice and keeping keeping a fairly large sort of cash pile on hand um

Because yeah I mean I think we could see you know we could very well see a draw down before you know before we go before we go to all time highs in in the bull market so I want to have that on hand my situation was kind of complicated a

Little bit by leaving the UK uh you know a year and a half ago because uh I had to sell I had to sell my stocks um did you I couldn’t yeah which was a real pain um so I’m sort of I’m not quite Allin crypto because I still have

Property in the UK um but other than that it’s sort of most you know it’s mostly crypto and and and a bit of cash um the investing landscape out here in the UAE I’m I’m still sort of slightly coming to terms with that you know

Whether I want to whether I want to kind of use a stock trading platform out here I’m not I’m not 100% convinced I do so yeah it’s I’m my uh my risk tolerance is has has got to be sort of Fairly high at the moment just out of necessity um but

You know I’m I I regard Bitcoin as because I’ve because I’m sort of so in crypto as it were I I’m almost s sort of regarding Bitcoin as a as a safe haven asset um yeah you know in general rather than just in crypto which I think

Is probably not quite the uh the attitude I should be taking so um yeah that’s that that’s kind of that’s where I am with with Investments at the moment it it’s you know fairly simple crypto cash and and a bit of property great so within that portfolio of mostly crypto

Which I got to tell you is a pretty smart position because even more Buffett says invest into things that you are uh expertly familiar with and uh guy I got to tell you nobody else that you know knows a more than you do on these these these topics So within that portfolio

That you have how are you allocating it is it because I know we talked this before it’s mostly Bitcoin but have you done anything else lately yeah yeah I’ve gone I’ve gone in a few different directions um I have well I mean I you know I’m about 42% Bitcoin about 30% eth

Um then there’s sort of dry powder you know dry powder with with usdt um my next biggest position after that is pith which I’ve talked about before you know pith Network right yeah yeah exactly and and and some soul and some uh atom those are my sort of big Holdings and then

I’ve got smaller um smaller allocations things like thorchain um and uh Sentinel which is a sort of decentralized VPN um I aped into that that’s a cosmos project so oh um yeah that’s that’s sort of my alloca crypto allocations as such and then you know smaller amounts of of

Various other things um but yeah I mean because I sort of I you know I hear I hear a lot of very intelligent people saying you know what with what with one thing and another you know we could be we could be headed for a fairly big

Crash in Q2 so which would suggest that you know I should be sort of sitting on my sitting on my hands and doing nothing you know accumulating cash ahead of that the thing is you know what keeps what really sort of keeps me up at night is

Well what if we’re not you know so I am sort of you know I’m trying to kind of hedge my bets in a little way like get into projects that I’m sort of interested in um at this stage but you know I’m I’m sort of hesitating a little

Bit because I think you know there is a decent chance that we could see that we could see a big crash and I want to be I want to be sort of prepared for that if it comes excellent you know and this is this what makes this this this show

Great because Ben is very the careful and plotting along and it’s worked out pretty well if you take if you if you denominate a lot of especially in the last week or so denominate everything in Bitcoin you can see that bitcoin’s been a pretty good winner and you really

Couldn’t go couldn’t go wrong in that situation and for like a lot of people you know who have gotten into different equities and stocks and different positions they’re feeling it right now and even though like you could say well you know bitcoin’s very volatile if you

Go if you have a long time frame you’re actually doing pretty good so for all of us I can see this is like this is this is what makes the show go around and I appreciate the responses and just to just to back this up and we’re talking

About the things that the crazy stuff that we all do uh I can just show you that here’s my portfolio little crazy but it’s mostly Bitcoin but there’s a lot of different altcoins out there you got ethereum soul near cardano ax and the whole plethora and then underneath

Here it says other 67 plus this is all the dust that I’ve had accumulated from the n cense that I’ve I’ve I’ve paid for over the different cyes since 2017 so take it with a grain of salt but I will say just to get back to to Ben’s point

And to steal stuff from his website which is a good website links in the description check it out if you because I’ve been this is this there’s this thing that’s been haunting me and we talked about this before about the the real estate that we we’ve bought into

And if I just take a look at I mean talking about the different condos that we just sold it doesn’t matter if I take a lump Sun if you took a lump sum in 2020 February 1st going four years back right which would be the having year on the same

Date and just said you know what I’m just gonna put a thousand bucks into Bitcoin just so everybody knows in that time frame you would have been down as time went on when the corona sickness came around you would have lost like 50% and if only if you sold but look at

This if you just would put a th000 in and just waited to hit the first top you would have sixed almost 7x over here six SX somewhere around there and even today if you would have done absolutely nothing it’d still be up four and a half

X so like when people talk about this they’re like well it’s kind of risky it’s whatever else try doing that in any other category I’ve tried it it does not work especially I mean equities and precious metals Peter shiff sorry and uh of course real estate you can’t do that

So I think again we’re in the right place the right time not to sound too overly uh bullish all right right but but it’s important that you only it’s important that there would have been some people that would have panicked during the the pmic and sold so people

Have to be aware that like guys like that volatility it can happen and if it does happen it’s not the death of Bitcoin right it just it’s something that Bitcoin occasionally does and then on the other side of it we just recover from it right so you just have to have

To keep that longer time frame in mind yeah I got it yeah excellent so let’s finish this up uh last one before we get in the Q&A there’s a lot of good questions usually when we get to this this point not even this point but when

Things start to heat up you start to get these like external indicators those indicators are essentially the people that are around you like hey what about that magical Bitcoin nerd money what’s going on with that should I get into that should I get into that and then of

Course everything else that you see around here have you guys seen any of those indicators personally friends close to you anybody can take this one you know I had a um I had a a neighbor at the bus stop but this was back in um this was actually before the Spidey TF

This was like maybe back in November or December that brought it up uh but he’s also he’s also really techsavvy and and so I don’t I don’t it’s sort of like he doesn’t invest in Bitcoin but the fact that he said it made me knew that we were getting somewhat he you know

Um but it’s not like I I I don’t think the average random person out there is really talking about it and actually if you can show the the chart that I’m looking at on here like this show this I mean think about how much Bitcoin has

Gone up over the last what year and a half or so 15 months this is a 30-day simple moving average of YouTube views to a lot of different crypto YouTube channels including R3 coin buau um mine and and digital asset news what’s fascinating is that views keep putting in lower

Highs so like I mean guys but this is the thing it’s like like that it just is what it is right I mean like like there there are definitely people out there that have taken notice of Bitcoin based on the price action and and yeah like

It’s been in the news because of the spot ETF but when you think about like YouTube views and and stuff these YouTube channels they’re still trending down right they’re still trending down and I think it’s because of um like we just haven’t we I I think we need to to

Shift over into into looser monetary policy for for retail to really get interested again right and so like there’s people like us who will just stay no matter what right and and we watch it but sort of the the more Fringe investors that only get interested when when everything is moving

Right and they just immediately leave the minute prices go sideways or down like look at what happens it interest goes up as price goes up but then as as price starts to fade we just keep putting in lower lows on social interest right you can see these lower lows on

Social interest so I I think that yes there are a few people talking about it but we’re nowhere near like we’re nowhere near like sort of the um the hype in terms of social interest that we were at back in back in like 2021 as you can as you can

See ah so close but yet so far guy anybody coming into you go like hey man should I get into this now or should I ape in or not well yeah because I mean that’s been that’s been one of my that’s been something I’ve been keeping my ear

To the ground to to hear when I was back in the UK over Christmas I was sort of like okay you know because we um Katie my wife and I we go back and we see a lot of friends that we don’t you know that we don’t otherwise see very much of

Through throughout the rest of the year and I was thinking I wonder if anyone is going to pull me aside and you know start asking which cryptos they should ape into and no one did no everyone was like oh how are you getting on with your

How are you getting on with your YouTube thing oh great you know um and I said but I did have a conversation with a couple of people who were sort of you know who who sort of kind of know a little bit about it um and I said well

Obviously the big thing at the moment is the spot Bitcoin ETF you know that’s that’s that’s driving a lot of interest and they both looked at me and went what’s an ETF n i okay yeah we’ve got we’ve got a long way to go we are we are

Not near the beginning of that Journey yet um so yeah I mean I haven’t you know I haven’t had I haven’t had people you know in my DMs sort of going what should I buy you know what’s what’s going on my dad occasionally asks me about the price of

Bitcoin um so yeah so those yeah and and when and when you see when you look at the data that that Ben pulled up you know it it correlates with that and and I think that is Ben’s Ben’s 100% right that is tied into to monetary policy

Because I think these these sort of Fringe investors are the sort of people who will invest in crypto if they have a few extra pounds dollars Euros whatever it is in their pocket at the end of the month and at the moment you know interest rates are high interest rates

Of you and mortgage rates in places like the UK are have climbed massively so people are having to you know people are having to service debts you know people have got the cost of living crisis has got worse so I don’t think many people have a few extra pounds dollars or

Whatever left over at the end of the month which would in better times in easier times um have found its way into crypto I don’t think they have that um and until they do have that until interest rates come down until people’s mortgage payments uh stop you know

Eating up all their spare cash um I don’t think we’re going to see the the the bull market that we’re all waiting for yep rates have to come down and then the magical money printer has to be turned on it’s it’s an election year so they’re probably goingon to cut rates at some

Point um true and the funny thing is if you think about like when all the major you know when all these major Peaks have previously occurred it was in the post having years right it wasn’t even in the having years could this time be different I I don’t know I know some

People have have speculated about like a a like a left translated cycle um which that could happen but this this shows the um the you know the hotle waves the hotal waves the this is shortterm so basically anyone who’s holding Bitcoin for six months or less you can see that

You know at at at Peaks where everyone and their grandmother is talking about Bitcoin you can see that that’s where all the short-term holders come in right at these right you can see that there’s still not that much interest right now right like I mean there’s been there’s

Interest among People Like Us right who have been here the whole time but there still isn’t a lot of interest from outside and and I don’t think we’re going to see that outside Interest really pour in until until you know Powell finally caves and and Pal’s probably probably not going to Cave

Until you know May at the earliest I guess I yeah I will guess so all right excellent responses everybody so that will take care of the news portion and the the the the questions now we’re going to get into a little bit more of the Q&A got about 10 minutes or so and

We’ll go over the people uh their questions that they have but again if you are not subscribed which I’m find that hard to believe to guy or to Ben to their respective channels their links are in the description you can check them out so jents let’s go over this and

Do a little Q&A and get out of here so first things first I have to apologize to everybody because of the Fantastic thumbnail that uh my assistant created uh unfortunately jpow was not the special guest I’m sorry did look that way even Ben had to ask me that before

We started and he had a good point boy if we could just get jpow on the show how great would that be oh I think he’s calling me oh he said he says they’ll cut rates when dominance is at 60% yeah exactly that’s what that’s what we saying Ben’s like you know wouldn’t

It be great if he came out and just said you know what if Bitcoin dominance does this then of course you know we’ll cut the rates that’s what everybody’s waiting for actually I’m waiting for the two-hour Bitcoin dominance video that apparently never gets made but uh just

I’m still asking for it but here we are all right questions ah Luis Luis Jose Lopez says besides Bitcoin and soul what should we be accumulating at this time now not Financial advice we can’t give this to you but uh what do you guys think here as far as like accumulation

Because we’re in the accumulation Zone I mean we just talked about it and we’re doing pretty well but what should you guys look into I know Ben’s answer but Ben go I I I’ve always said like after Bitcoin comes ethereum I think um like if you want to take on more risk risk

Than Bitcoin I I think ethereum is the next obvious play I the reason I haven’t taken on ethereum is just because I you know it to me it just seems like it’s bleeding back to bitcoin right now but yeah I think if you if you want to go

Back out of of Bitcoin I think I mean I personally think eth comes before um salana I that might be a little controversial but that’s that’s my I think ethereum I mean it’s been around longer I think it’s proven itself more um and actually if you were

To if I can pull this up um I think you have to be you have to be careful can I share my screen one last time no yes of course just put put it in there I’ll throw it in there yeah so a lot of altcoins a lot of all ether

Valuations are oscillators at best and so this is the sole ether valuation and so like it you know it hit these highs over here and it just hit them again and it could come back up and hit it again but the point is is like I think ethereum would probably be would

Probably be a little you know I I would say eth would come before salana at this point um maybe if maybe if the sole ether valuation were you know further down it would make but I mean again you have to remember that that salana just went on a massive move so it is

Certainly certainly more risky got you know I I will say uh before before guy you chime in I will say that there’s really there there’s two things every time the Market says you know what we’re going to go this way it’s Salon or nothing you know in this situation it’s

Salon or nothing it’s really dominating the altcoins the meme coins and everybody’s using it every time we hear the same narrative the Market’s like just fooled you and they do something else and the second thing I will say is this and this is from the the contacts

I’ve made down here in Puerto Rico they pretty much tell me like Rob never count ethereum out and the reason why is because there’s so much money rolled into that you think those people are going to let that money slide you got another thing coming so uh expect a push

Coming into twoo on that one but guy what do you think about this yeah I think I mean yeah eth has been eth has been bleeding against BTC for for months on end now um and I think but there are two I think big catalysts

For for e in the future one is you know these ETFs that keep getting talked about um you know standard charted came out yesterday or the day before saying oh you know we reckon uh 23rd of May we’ll get them and they were you know they were predicting a 4K eth around

That time I mean standard charted I think you know love making price predictions so you have to take them with a pinch of salt like any price pred um but you know eth I think is yeah don’t write e don’t write ethereum off um the other big thing of course is the

Denune upgrade I think you know they theyve they’ve gone through two test Nets now I think the final test net is next week um and then it will go live on mainnet uh I fairly soon I think within the next few weeks now that is M that’s mainly going to be beneficial for

Ethereum’s layer twos it’s going to make them uh we we looked at a report from coin shares uh just recently we’ve been putting together a video on that and they were saying um the denune upgrade will make these ethereum layer twos 10 to 100 times cheaper and 45 to 100 times

Faster um which I mean if that’s true big if true as they say big true so I think you know I think that’s something to bear in you know that’s something to bear in mind it’s kind of up for debate how much denune is going to affect ethereum itself because the layer twos

Are going to benefit so that is arguably going to take away um you know move move more transactions onto the layer twos away from the ethereum main chain uh so that will mean less activity less eth being burned for fees so you know obviously it won’t it won’t be as

Deflation as it has been in the past but of course denune is all part of a much bigger cycle of upgrades moving towards you know moving towards dank sharding moving towards you know this this world where transacting on ethereum becomes way way cheaper in the future than it

Does now so and of course yeah e as you said Rob there’s so much money tied up in the etherium ecosystem um and there’s so much development there they’ve got more active developers than any other any other project out there so I think yeah I think ethereum eth could be could

Be a good one a good one to watch and it’s layer twos I’m I’m kind of bullish on its layer twos at the moment um I picked up a little bit of uh ARB and a little bit of IMX recently um because I think you know they could I think

They’re set to benefit from the from the denune upgrade so I think yeah etherum and its layer 2 is are definitely worth looking at um and of course I’ve been I’m bullish on on projects in the cosmos ecosystem as well I think there are some really exciting ones coming there too

Excellent hey did you did you ever do a video on uh the the upgrade the ethereum upgrade you were talking about denune uh we’re putting one together now so I’m hoping it will come out we did we did an ethereum update in general a few weeks ago um but uh we’re gonna we’re

Doing one on Denon and that’ll be NE next week I think Tuesday I think with any luck this is why I watch your channel thanks guys so I I to before we go to the next one I will just say this uh when we were talking about Solana what what Luis is

Talking about I did I have the second Channel Dan Deen it’s a it’s a channel essentially we go outside the top 300 essentially you’re gonna lose all your money or you might you make some pretty good profits one of those two things will happen and on this channel I was

Actually did a giveaway of the Myro meme Salon meme coin and I did it live and we gave away we this is like the last two nights the first night we gave around around $1,000 worth and the second night we gave around $1,200 worth and we did

This live everybody they just filled out a form they gave me their salana address and it was just so quick and easy and fast and everybody was you know it worked out pretty well I was kind of a little bit nervous the first night because I’m like you know Sal works

Pretty well but this just shows you like how fast cheap and easy it can actually be when you know things actually work out right now people are going to say ah well it’s not decentralized and it goes down and da d d that’s true I mean

That’s true for like the last 334 days or something like that but if we’re just looking at how things work faster cheap or easier Sal is pretty good but just like guy said and you know then also don’t discount eth and we go from there

All right but I mean isn’t um isn’t the Phantom wallet it’s a joy to use isn’t it it they the Phantom wallet interface is just so simple and I think when you when you compare that with something like metamask it’s like wow you know there is you know salana is doing a lot

Right you know it’s fast it’s cheap but it’s all you know the UI and I always bang on about the UI in in crypto because I think it’s so important I think it’s you know bad UI shuts shuts out new people yeah I mean salana is doing a lot

Right in that regard yeah and like I said like when we were doing this and we were doing this like again and again 20 transactions I and every time I did a transaction I counted it and it was between three seconds to 10 seconds every single time and then people in the

Chats were saying thanks I got it thanks I got it thanks I got it yeah so again works out pretty well and we’re going to do one tomorrow night so uh follow me on X and I’ll show you to you all right so let’s see this a good one and then we

This will probably be it guys but it’s a good and and segue how do you guys handle burnout because let’s be honest we’ve been in this this game for quite some time what’s your have to stay fresh and not get crushed by information overload especially you know Ben and all

The kids and the different things they do and then guy all the moving the traveling how do you guys do this I mean I think you just have to have a plan right I think it’s kind of all comes back to just have a plan and stick

To it and kind of tune everything tune a lot of the stuff out and just say all right I’m gonna I’m just gonna keep my head down and and focus on the projects that I I think have a future and I will deal with the volatility that that comes

If it comes but I think that’s what you have to do because there’s always going to be something to worry about right and and there’s always going to be occasional reasons for a crash and then occasionally there will be a crash right but yeah I I think you just have

To have a plan and you just stick to it no matter what and that usually works out over the Long Haul if you if you if you do something and like you you know you start buying and then you if you watch Bitcoin drop 40% if you’re gonna

Like Panic sell into that then that’s not really a great plan right you know you you you don’t selling it you if you’re if you’re going to sell you should sell into strength not into weakness um because if you’re selling into a crash then there’s a good chance

It just bounces and and leaves you behind um so yeah i’ say just have a plan stick to it and and I think it’s okay to sort of tune in and see what’s going on but I wouldn’t I wouldn’t base all your investment decisions based on

You know what you know what the latest data is coming out or any of that stuff yeah well said have a plan stick to it because that’s the only that’s GNA save you guy same thing i’ I’ve found I’ve been a lot her about routine lately that was one of my

Sort of New Year’s resolutions so I get I’ve always been quite good at getting up in the morning and I get up in the morning I get up early because I’m a morning person but I have a rule that I read a book for you know a physical book

For an hour before I and drink coffee and and you know just generally sort of chill before I turn on any device before I turn because once my phone and laptop are on that’s it you know I’m I’m I’m I’m in I’m checking prices I’m checking

The news Etc and I’m and I’m following it so but to have that hour at the beginning of the day and also at the end of the day so my I I’ve started turning my phone onto airplane mode at8 o’clock um and that really helps you know

Because you’re sort of like I’m done with this what let what what will happen will happen and I’ll deal with it in the morning um and uh yeah and my Casey and I we don’t we don’t talk about work at home anymore we used to do that a bit I

Used to come home and you know just talk work and complain about stuff or whatever um but now I just just just I just don’t do it so it’s I think it’s just about and that you know having that as a as a set routine works really well

And I think just having some time away from it you know it’ll it’s always there again in the morning without fail so I think that’s I think that’s really important you know read and just do I think the more I think the more non- interet stuff you can do the better

Excellent responses I got to do that especially with the uh nonsense that’s going on with X all right everybody so that’s we’re com up an hour that is it shout out to uh head e gifted five digital ass news memberships I appreciate that and to the five people

That got the memberships to the channel thank you so much but everybody follow guy and Ben links are in the description that’s it for this week next week I believe we’re on guy’s Channel yes and we go from there so everybody thanks so much like And subscribe see you on the next

One see you see