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Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain with smart contract functionality. Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the platform. Among cryptocurrencies, ether is second only to bitcoin in market capitalization. It is open-source software. Ethereum was conceived in 2013 by programmer Vitalik Buterin.
Ethereum can be used by anyone to create any secured digital technology. It has a token designed to pay for work done supporting the blockchain, but participants can also use it to pay for tangible goods and services if accepted.
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Hey everybody welcome back to another reasonable price prediction the series where we try to figure out where your favorite altcoins could be headed now today we’re looking at the big dog the one and only ethereum now we don’t often look at ethereum on its own on this
Channel we usually put it together in a bit of a Bitcoin video and a whole crypto space type of video doesn’t usually get its own thing and while today we will still be looking at the Bitcoin ethereum chart because I do that with all altcoins that we take a look at
On the reasonable price prediction series we will mainly just be focusing on ethereum and I’ll try my best to not talk about the general crypto space and what the Bitcoin ethereum chart means in terms of other things I’ll mainly try to focus and keep it on ethereum however no
Promises because I love to ramble when I get to that chart because it’s such a cool chart but right now we’re on the ethereum US dollar pair as we can see I’ve tried to keep this as simple as possible in terms of trend lines and
Stuff like this we can see we have our bull market support band turned on and we have our harving dates here is another little important that I want to look at and well it’s not really important now but again it will be important in the future so I’ll leave it
In um it’s just basically that at some point ethereum after the bull run it returns to a low somewhere not too far from where it broke out from after the harving you can see that here it’s a 600% move uh up to this line where it
Eventually retraces back to and if we go to the last cycle we can see that it is also a similar type of move of 300 400 give or take uh so again it’s decreasing again we we always talk about diminishing returns in the crypto space and as cryptocurrencies get bigger we
Can expect less potent moves but we can still see similarities in terms of how the price has performed especially in terms of just pattern I mean this last cycle has played out very similarly to the current cycle we’re in where we have after the harving we move around for a
Little bit have an explosion into the Bull Run have a serious retracement where we return back to this level and then we slowly Trend up for the preh harving year and harving year and then the cycle repeats where we have our extreme move up extreme move down
Retrace to our level that we talked about and then Trend up for the preh harving and harving year and then of course what happens after that well last cycle we saw a strong move up immediately after the harving cycle before that we saw a bit of a a bit of a
Pullback actually before we went up into our Bull Run move so currently we could see either now you could argue that we had this pull back here was equivalent to this pull back here so whatever happens we usually do see some sort of a major pullback whether it’s just after
The harving like we saw here or just before the harving I would probably prescribe to that that we will get some sort of a pullback like we can see that at least after the harving or leading up to the harving or around the harving we
Spend a lot of time on the bull markets under and above the bull market support band in there and abouts what we’ve seen so far well not so far what we saw last cycle a similar thing below above below above below above every few months dipping above and below so far what have
We seen here we’ve seen a very similar thing below above below above you could say that would you a below potentially and that could be in the form of a big move like this or it could be in the form of still a big move but over a
Longer period of time and not as harsh I still think we’ll see something like this personally and even though this first cycle ethereum didn’t really go above and below that much it kind of just went straight up had a bit of a pullback and went straight back to going
Straight up uh we still did see a bit of oscillation above and below the support band of course another thing to point out as well is the time it takes for ethereum to go from from this strong move up to where it retraces back to this resistance that turns to a support
That eventually leads into our preh harving and harving trend line this first cycle it took 85 weeks which is just under there in about a year and 3/4 and here it took about 76 weeks so about a year and a half so again similar time frames in a sense both of them being
Very long periods of time basically but just something to be aware of maybe in the future um I always like to talk talk about much further down the road than what we’re currently experiencing with these cryptos cuz I like to get the seed of thought in your head early because
While a lot of people will be focusing on the bull run and a lot of people will be focusing on their Bull Run strategy which is a good thing to focus on it’s also very good to be aware and have in the back of your mind the potential
Moves that ethereum will make once it’s put in its all-time high once the hype has started to die down or reached its peak and that’s when things start to to kind of Crash really you know once ethereum is putting in lower lows and lower highs I want people to have some
Sort of an idea of when that could be and also what they might want to do and that starts now not when we’re at the top you know or at least that’s what the best investors do they start now not when we’re up here um and kind of trying
To figure out a plan uh while their asset is crashing anyway kind of enough rambling just be aware that from sort of where we are now if we take it from here say we’re a few a month or two away from the harving we have approximately give
Or take 2 years until we reach our high from this point and if we make a a similar move of 26% sorry yeah 26x move up which I don’t think we will see I don’t think we’ll see as drastic of a move but if we do see something similar
From where we currently are it will probably look it would look something like this bringing ethereum to $6,250 oh no excuse me 62,000 so Bitcoin is alltime high basically which me personally I don’t think is possible now Bitcoin went from what was the previous high like $133,000
To uh $60,000 just above last cycle so maybe ethereum could move from a $4,000 top sorry basically $5,000 top up to like a $25,000 top I don’t think that’s unreasonable I think ethereum will outperform Bitcoin uh this cycle not by much but I I think it will outperform I
Think you like we’ll go into the Bitcoin eth chart soon and you’ll see that a lot of people have already started moving there Bitcoin into ethereum because now is about the time historically when people like to move down the risk curve a little bit more and put their Bitcoin
Into ethereum because you know they speculate that because ethereum is a riskier asset than Bitcoin has a lower market cap has more utility perhaps uh they predict that ethereum will do better than Bitcoin during the good times and then during the bad times Bitcoin is expected to hold up better so
We will start to see that rotation of capital A little interesting thing here if we zoom into where we currently are we’ve had these few weeks where we’ve held above um a support we have Wick down below but we’ve ultimately closed every week above and we are quite a bit
Above now we’re a couple well we’re about $60 above from where this line is this line is at 2,170 us and our current price is $230 if we Zoom back to our first cycle where we didn’t have a covid scare during this time or any sort of Black
Swan event that caused a major crash leading up to the Haring we can see we had a similar play where we moved up and spent a few weeks staying above this similar support line if we check how long this went on for we can see it was
17 weeks and if we come back to here will be a bit longer I think if I remember correctly yeah 21 weeks but still a similar time frame that could potentially play out so we are looking more similar in terms of leading up to the harving to this first cycle and I
Will remind you this is when ethereum was at $7 $8 so um yeah imagine how rich you could have been but that’s uh futile the only thing you’ll do thinking of that is drive yourself mad um I think that about wraps up the US dollar chart if we then move
To our Bitcoin pair again you’re probably thinking what the hell is going on uh there’s stuff everywhere and it’s a complete mess and you would be right thinking that it is a complete mess however for me again I think this chart the Bitcoin ethereum pair is so
Important so important and when I leave this chart I want to make sure that when I come back to it next time I’m able ble to figure out what I deduced or at least uh assumed the last time I looked at it and if you’ve watched our Bitcoin ethereum videos before you’ll notice
This does look a lot different from how it previously did you might laugh but I’ve actually tidied it up a little bit so um if you want to see what it was like before go take a look um at one of those videos um but getting straight into it these white and
Blue lines signify the time we spend at a a price that is below 0.055 BTC or at least this cycle uh this is what it signifies and this white line is the 0.055 BTC uh it’s important because it’s where basically ethereum enters a bare Market on its Bitcoin pair uh we can
Also see that I have this red line here and this is the measuring of the range uh that ethereum and Bitcoin operate within during this cycle and we can see it’s 0.718 of a Bitcoin is the range it operates from and we can see these green
Uh this green line is our resistance and this red line is is our support being our lowest points and then also more or less being our high of that cycle it is slightly above but well I mean this is actually part of the cycle so no it is
The high excuse me um I’m waffling and then if we zoom into what we currently have we will see that it is basically the same thing we have our support we have our resistance we have our line that cuts it 45% in the middle from our low to our
High so even though these have different percentages and they have different amounts they do equate percentage terms to the exact same in terms of low to high so that’s something to keep in mind and make sure you don’t get confused with and that’s how you know what this white line represents the
0.055 Bitcoins level is now this line here they’re the same basically they they’re 45% drops from the top and then of course this is just a range measurement of where we went from our low to our high so the range that ethereum and Bitcoin have operated in uh
One thing to keep in mind um and is very important to point out for ethereum is that when we have our harving these Orange Lines aren’t the harving they’re just the Midway point between where we enter below 0.055 Bitcoins and where when we break above 0.055 Bitcoins so
This isn’t the harving but funly enough it does it’s not really that close to be honest with you uh it’s about 6 months off here and here it’s about you know 6 months off again actually so um there you go bit of an interesting indicator so about 22 months after we enter this
Slow the harving roughly takes place which is interesting what is more interesting though is halfway through bang on we do see a reversal or we did at least see this last time and if we zoom in we can see we have this downward move that ethereum follows a strong
Downward move from basically 2019 to 2020 and we put in our low just before this halfway point and then we also see the trend start to reverse once we put in this low so as soon as we put in this low ethereum begins to Trend upwards
What we also see after we put in in this low is ethereum puts in a strong move up now let’s take a look at today’s current climate and this blue line is where we’re starting from so this blue line again equivalent from here where we enter below this range doesn’t quite
Play out the same way here cuz we’re taking it in terms of time base but we do see that we have broken down sometime very close after this range and slowly traded down and now we’ve put in a low but what’s interesting is we put in our
Lowest low so far our local low after the halfway but again during a similar time but afterwards there’s a few there’s a couple of months of a discrepancy there but what have we seen once we put in this low here we see we see an immediate pull up and what
Happens here an immediate pull up what happens after that an immediate pull back down of about 50% just over and what have we had so far about about a 50% pullback basically and it actually lines up give or take with the lows the highs that we were at sorry before we
Reached this very low point and where were we basically now if we zoom in we are more or less at these highs give or take it’s it’s not part and partel but it’s very similar in terms of how it’s moving and the pattern it’s following now if we’re going to
Assume that these are similar times we can assume that ethereum is probably trending upwards from now on on its Bitcoin pair which is a good thing and again it’s about the time when a lot of people start to move their Bitcoin into ethereum or move parts of their Bitcoin
Positions into ethereum again depending on the investor I like to hold Bitcoin throughout the whole cycle and sell during the Bull Run year even though I could probably trade it all in for ethereum and make more money I would much rather just have a bit of Bitcoin
Just in case because I I’m I’m fairly certain that Bitcoin will always perform well however it isn’t always sunshine and rainbows what happened last time is we still had even though we had these pullbacks and these strong moves we did basically come back down to this low
This alltime low and there is a strong chance that we do I mean we’re not too far away we saw a very strong move about about 3 weeks ago but now we’re not too far away at all and I think we will probably come back close to this line
But ultimately I think we are close to the lows of the cycle I don’t think we’ll break too far below this if we do again I can always be wrong but that does seem like the time based capitulation and the percentage we’ve moved from sort of where we were at the
Start of this 4year cycle to where we are now is give or take the same roughly in percentage terms and time based terms so for me that’s quite a strong indicator that I would feel comfortable taking a small risk on and moving Bitcoin into ethereum because I’m sure
Both assets will perform well what can we expect from here on out well etherium does perform well against Bitcoin as we can see and basically as we draw to the end of this 32-month period which is also here we can see ethereum basically breaks back above uh this resistance
This sort of bare Market territory and do I think it’s possible for ethereum to move from current prices up 30% on its Bitcoin payer in the space of over a year uh I do I personally think that because in a year’s time we are at the
Start of a bull run potentially we could already be a few months into the Bull Run there’s talk of Q4 of of being our Bull Run uh this year which again I’m not really sure I have to spend a lot of time thinking about that it could play
Out that way who really knows but I definitely think there’s room for a 30% move I think there’s possibly room for a higher move and we might have to maybe reassess this level here that I’ve put um because things change things don’t always play out the same and it’s worth
Looking into and then of course historically if it is to play out in a similar way we have roughly 61 weeks give or take a year and a third or a year and a quarter excuse me of bullish price action where we are in a high
Range on the Bitcoin pair and that means that as well usually the price is doing very well on its US dollar pair so in terms of a game plan you might want to draw from this now could be the time to move parts of your Bitcoin port P folio
To ethereum and then as even more time goes on you might want to move that ethereum into altcoins but I don’t think it’s the time for that yet I think the time to do that is closer to the harving so maybe March time or April time you
Might want to move your ethereum that you’ve moved from Bitcoin into altcoins but then you’re going well down the risk curve and there’s a good chance that your altcoins might not do anything this cycle again it’s very up in the air very up in the air but I do think it’s very
Interesting if you guys want to look at this chart uh pause the video take a look do your own analysis comment down below what you find if you think I’ve done anything wrong which I probably most likely have or something I haven’t noticed I always try to make notes that
I want to talk about in these videos but I kind of but I often get like so caught up in what I’m talking about and the interesting points that stick out to me that I often forget uh which points I wanted to cover so if there is something
I will uh talk about it in the comments if you guys uh spot it cuz I I probably have uh at least written down about that point or thing anyway thank you very much another thing I will add probably for the next video is these uh cycle lengths
As well if I just clone this quickly and throw that there take uh we can see again lines up and I will also uh just so you can see as well CU it might help you visualize stuff this here just Rough and Ready and I will also throw this
Here so you have a rough idea of of um how it played out last time compared to this time thanks very much for watching guys if you like the video leave a like if you didn’t leave a dislike consider signing up to faires with the link in
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