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Video Description:
Data-filled update on real estate cycle, stock market performance for 2024, bitcoin investor sell-off and the crypto bull market cycle timing.

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Since bitcoin’s crash of 21% after the ETF announcement Bitcoin has gone into a holding pattern this has caused some cryptos to begin to pull back but as we know this is the opportunity for the market as we lead into 2024 and of course 20125 as we’ve covered here on

The channel which is why you should hit that like And subscribe looking at the Cycles themselves for crypto Bitcoin and the stock markets we can see that there is a lot of potential for later this year but we probably have to get through some slow less volatile periods in the

Meantime before we get the masses back for the excitement of the harving so what happens next should we be worried in the meantime there is still a couple of months to go before that harving today’s video let’s have a look at some of the macro data and of course the

Facts on the charts to help us identify what goes on on the black side of the chart you’ve reached your home of macro cycle analysis studying the past to forecast the future looking at crypto Bitcoin the stock markets and of course real estate the big one the real estate

Cycle now if you haven’t already we are giving out the free crypto and economic report so hit the link in the top of the video description that will subscribe you to the email list and that is going out in less than 12 hours so if you missed today’s don’t worry you’ll get

Next week’s but today’s one is a big one as we go through a few altcoins as well we’re getting a little bit degenerate out there link is starting to push through to Fresh highs we’re also going to cover eth today at some of the salana gains and of course get into the macro

Charts themselves as we’ve seen very very strong gains on the stock markets all right guys let’s kick it off with this Fantastic look at the markets the market psychology before we get into those charts this is the important part do not skip this part essentially this

Is how most of us view the markets which is why looking forward is so much more difficult than looking back looking back everything was already happening and typically what we do is expect the exact same thing to happen or we look back to the past and say well the market has

Been here before we would expect the market has to come back and test those prices test those previous tops test those bottoms and that’s where I’m going to get in again in hindsight it seems pretty easy but as you may know as we continue forward it’s not that simple

And if we can get an idea of how we can view the uh the past and the future that’ll help us set ourselves up in our risk management so this is a fantastic look at that I think this chart lays it all out perfectly well how we view the

Past verse the future your job is isn’t to predict the future but to take risks and manage cash wisely if you can’t get to understand this it’s not going to matter how many intellectuals you surround yourself with so doesn’t matter how many times you watch my videos or

Anyone else online it’s not going to matter you have to learn how to manage the risk and what we try to do here on the channel is understand what risk lies ahead could this Market go down a lot or a little and then decide if we see those

Things happen how much do we load up because of the expectation or the probabilities of the market only going so far as opposed to what some of the the masses might think the market might go even further you may have lived through this already when the banking

Crisis happened in 2023 we were prepared for this because we are expecting a higher low to form in the market but you might remember 12 months ago the masses were screaming for lower and lower prices uh some of the big names out there which are starting to die off

Because people are seeing how full of poop they are when it comes to forward expectations at the time 2023 which is essentially a straight up year they were looking for lower and lower prices so rather than managing the risk there by loading up because you’re at lower

Prices already they waited around to see even lower prices so now they have to chase their tail on the way up and start to load up heavier rather than load up heavier at the bottom so if you can understand that that’s how you can stay safe in the market by recognizing where

The lows might be protecting yourself in case there is further downside but then getting in when those lows are confirmed which is exactly what we were doing here on the channel at that time as a Savvy investor or Trader uh knowing the risks is inherent to investing you’re better

Advised to know yourself as an investor Trader than attempt to manage risk you don’t or can’t even take so if you can’t take the risk this is not the game for you now there are two sides to that maybe you just don’t want to do super shortterm trading the longer term stuff

Might suit you better so that’s where you have to look at the time frames and then your risk management on the time frames let’s take a look forward to the S&P 500 so what we’ve seen in 2023 which is what this white box is is a pretty

Well a straight up Market with two significant Corrections although 2023 did feel like it was the end of the world the market did go basically straight up it was an up year within that we had a very strong move from March into July and all I’ve done here

With this white line is copy that exact strength of the move so it’s the exact time so how many weeks there and then of course the exact price how much in terms of the point move and just applying that to this stage of the run so as you can

See this run has actually outpaced the previous run now in on the one hand that’s strong on the other hand it will probably need a significant correction to either come back to this line or go under it and then come back to test that

Line again to see if it can keep up with the pace that it has been putting in when is this correction coming we want to understand what happens first we want to continue to uncover some of the data moving forward to see whether there is the possibility of it correcting in the

Short term but also continuing up in the longer term remember the market doesn’t go up in a straight line we just want to see whether it does some of these pullbacks and give us another buying opportunity turning to some data on the large caps and the small and midcaps we

Can see that the market is not overvalued but it can seem overvalued in some of the stocks the red line is showing where the over valuation might lie and the blue and the green is essentially the mid and small caps which are still undervalued compared to the larger caps now the larger caps

Obviously have more of the market share so when they move the market essentially moves along with them and the smaller midcaps don’t necessarily move the Indy which is the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ or Dow Jones they don’t necessarily move the market as much as the large caps do

But you can still see that they are relatively undervalued so they still have some room to move to the upside as they have done in the history that we can see here of nearly 20 years there going back to the GFC so in the short term we may get corrections but in the

Long term the market could seem expensive because we’re at all-time Highs but that’s not for all stocks and it’s not for most of the stocks most of the stocks are small and midcaps they’re not large caps so these can still run up higher the flip side to that well it’s

Kind of on the same side is that even though they can seem expensive even though the market can seem ridiculously overpriced and how the hell can these things continue up with their valuations remember the old quote from John ke markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent and that

Goes in both directions up and down these markets have been going up since 2009 with a few significant Corrections 2015 you got another one in 18 obviously 2020 which was very very Qui quick we had 2022 which is prettyy much the longest one since the 2009 low and a

Couple of minor ones here in 20110 and 2011 which at the time felt probably way more significant than the majority of these moves uh Corrections that we’ve seen in the last 10 or so years because this was straight out of the global financial crisis which lasted about 18

Months so looking at the past it’s obvious and full of missed opportunities looking to the Future future it’s unpredictable full of risk if we listen to the media the market should be collapsing every single day because of the amount of fear that they present to

Us and I guess data and reason why the market should be collapsing but as we can see over the long term the markets typically go up and as we looked at in yesterday’s video which is another reason to hit that subscribe button I’ll leave a link to that at the end of this

Video uh another reason for the markets continue out B based on the data is well essentially over the course of almost 100 years 74% % of the time the markets are up at the end of the year so 3 out of four years the markets are up as for

The short term it definitely looks like we are getting a little bit overheated compared to the previous moves to the upside eventually I think we’ll have to come back and test the uh the strength to the upside now I’ve got a a little more data on that coming up as to what

Happens in the short term looking at those Cycles across 2024 which of course will help us for Bitcoin and the altcoins uh to see what goes on there as well if we’re starting to see that risk come into the markets now once these markets do break out into all-time highs it doesn’t necessarily

Have to be Mega Corrections look at what happened in 2020 into 2021 these Corrections weren’t anything overly severe and they barely broke down on the weekly chart some of them obviously did break down on the weekly chart here looking at the swing indicator here is your tia G swing indicator fantastic

Tool for trading and investing setting profit targets putting in stop loss es there’s a 7-Day free trial along with a uh educational content on the daily to help you use that particular tool so as we can see here the move to the upside does not necessarily have to have significant Corrections probably the

Biggest one through 2021 was 6.36% and baring the covid collapse you had a couple here in September and October ranging down to 10.8 now we’ve seen one of those 10.8 Corrections going back in 2023 uh there it is 10.75 basically dead on to the correction

There so are we going to see more double digits or possibly more single digits we’ll wait and see what the market says the evidence leans towards the single digits as you can see here for this entire move up basically had one double digit correction with the rest of them

Being single digits until we got to that Peak this typically happens when the market runs into a new all-time high see 2013 continued up continued up continued up we had the corrections of 2015 continued up correction 2018 2020 as we went through before so Corrections natural shorter term stuff when the

Market starts to run away from this speed that it’s once done typically you’ll see it come back to those areas how far well as we just looked at the majority of the time it is those single digits but it can be a double digit typically not too much considering

You’ve already seen multiple double digits along the way in 2022 seen one of them in 2023 so the probability of more of those happening in the year is less likely not unlikely and remember going back to managing the risk that’s what we’re trying to do here decide and

Figure out what happens in this shortterm and long term for 2024 speaking of 2024 it seems like it is pretty well on track with the road map here just looking at the S&P cycle composite which includes data going all the way back back to 1928 so essentially 95 years of data now

They’re putting an equal waiting on each of the cycles that they’ve overlaid here for the S&P essentially taking all the years and seeing how the market reacts throughout the year what it does in February and March and April Etc overlaying that with the one-year seasonal cycle so that’s every single

Year which I would put less waiting on I’d put more waiting on the 4year and then even more waiting on the 10year so that’s the difference that I would look at here and it’s something that we specifically do in Tia premium so if you want to get involved in that make sure

You are on the free crypto and economic report you’ll get a discount there to then join us as Tia premium member so this is really interesting as we can see that we’re on a similar track here and what happens in the short term it’s essentially what we’re looking at here

As I alluded to in the intro what can we expect uh you probably see some corrections along the way leading into May or June and then again at the the end of the year before we get to the election so I think that’s quite interesting that we’re um treading the

Same sort of path right now it’s early days and if we start to see some of these Corrections it won’t be out of the ordinary for the last 95 years see some corrections in February March uh and typically again sort of around that May June period Market runs up get another

One here July comes back down into that September October seasonal period like we saw in uh 23 and of course 2022 where we got the low in October and then from that Point Market seems to want to run up for November December uh because well for one we’ve got the presidential

Election happening at that time and as we’ve covered many times before around that period you typically see the market sell off and then run up into November December now the presidential years 2020 we’ve gone through it again 2016 you had the Trump election there and so on and

So forth so what does that mean for Bitcoin and cryptos in the short term I think we all know what it means in the long term eventually we’ll have a pullback and then a pump to the upside and so I guess I just gave it away there

In the short term I think we still see a little more downside and I want to cover Bitcoin eth link salana for you guys right now as for BTC I posted recently that I think we’re in a rock and a hard place the right here is

42200 which is the bare Market 50% level top to bottom at 50% let’s take off log so you can see the 50% there and to the upside you’ve got a shortterm 50% level that is 43,800 it still has not been able to break above that it’s hit it a couple of

Times and seems like it is still trying to decide whether there is a little bit more selling left or it wants to break out and close above those levels so for now while we remain in this level there is nothing else I can do here there’s nothing there’s no other analysis I can

Add to this until I see a break down or I see a breakout to the upside now being prepared looking at the risk of the market if Bitcoin is to break to the downside well I think all of us can agree that the majority not all but the

Majority of altcoins are also going to see some downside we’re going to see downside on the USD pairings for altcoins so basically altcoin USD and you’ll probably likely see the altcoin against its Bitcoin pairing also fall while Bitcoin is going down that is obviously going to bring more dominance

Back to bitcoin even though the Bitcoin price could be falling which could be a prime opportunity to be loading up on your favorite altcoins I’ve got a couple here to get through as for ethereum we’ve been following this cycle now for well going on years but just looking at

Where it sits in relation to the previous cycle it seems like we’re roughly at about this level before that final breakdown to that final low of eth against its Bitcoin pairing so essentially the cheapest price that eth will be against Bitcoin not against USD but against Bitcoin so typically this is

Where you would sell your Bitcoin into eth because from that point you could potentially no guarantees remember but you could potentially see ethereum outperform Bitcoin that’s what happened throughout this period from 2019 to 2021 ethereum did 447 per more than BTC through that period just based on the

Chart alone so call it roughly times more if ethereum was th000 bucks going to 5,000 Bitcoin wouldn’t have done as much in that period that’s what we’re anticipating over the next few months ethereum bottoming around here going through a bit of consolidation then a break back above and then on with the

Show into the altcoin season so with that in mind let’s take a look at link which has been going on its own altcoin run while the rest of the market has been holding up well basically going nowhere ethereum basically going nowhere Bitcoin basically going nowhere as well

Over the last week and a half but if you wanted to add in since December it’s been in a pretty well trading range between 41 and 45,000 by the ETF excitement and the quick dip to the ETF correction at 38 a half so essentially range Bound for two months with all of

That hype all of that hysteria about the ETF all of your favorite Moon boys and moon girls like Kathy Wood and I don’t know Max Kaiser and the rest of the morons calling for $ 500k million Bitcoin well price is gone nowhere and I can see what I’ve just drawn the chart

There so let’s erase that and follow on with link Now link has been pushing to higher prices and this is against its BTC value which would mean while Bitcoin remains relatively stable you would see the link USD price continuing up so that’s what you want to see in an

Altcoin that you are accumulating you want to see it going up against Bitcoin when Bitcoin is potentially pausing or struggling strling going down because that shows you the strength in the altcoin so that is the basis of how to pick your altcoins for the altcoin season find those strong ones that are

Essentially bucking the trend bucking what Bitcoin is doing they’ve gone through a huge accumulation and are attempting to break out to higher prices in the case of link from May 22 which essentially was the defi collapse the bottom there through to when it broke out in October 23 it’s done a roughly 75

74 week accumulation period and the strength to link is that it broke higher Consolidated again and so far is breaking higher again so that’s a good sign to see in any altcoin that you have been accumulating or a buying on the breakouts which is essentially confirmation you’re just paying a

Premium for it which is your insurance insurance that it actually breaks out so there’s no harm in buying an altcoin as it breaks out just keep your stops in play at significant levels which is why we specifically look at the Gan swing indicator that tells us where some of

Those specific stop prices are a nice quick indicator that you can turn on and off and obviously adjust to your own time frames now from one strength to something that may not be in as much strength now not having to go at any salana players you guys would have been

Buying up low and selling hopefully selling up higher have been making the gains now salana could go further so maybe you don’t want to sell now I don’t care I don’t want to hear about it in the comments but if you do leave comments about it it just helps the

Algorithm so there’s your chance to help out with the algorithm like And subscribe right now we got plenty more coming up especially with the macro cycle as we lead into these next stages of the market I’ve got some bigger stuff I wanted to share with you as well

Continue to follow up on this this is incredible and the bigger uh seasonal 10year Cycles as well but going back to salana before I get too carried away with the macro uh salana pushing up this on a smaller term time frame which is okay seems to be very similar to what

Happened at the alltime high what happened after the alltime high collapse what happens now I’m saying maybe there is still a pullback but I don’t think there’s going to be a mega collapse like this if there is you will see it check the the lows on the market check the

Next lows if it continues to break down from this low and this low and this low so they are the significant lows here on your weekly swing indicator then you would have to assume that salana is going to be weak in the next bull market

That’s all I can say about this before I start to trigger some who think L has got the the next biggest thing in the e killer it can be and how will that happen well it’ll pull back to somewhere in this Zone here around 170,000 or 160ish th000 to about 200,000

Satoshi consolidate again and then start to break higher absolutely okay you probably want to see that if you are a massive salana bull you want to see all of the late people that got in here get washed out because they’re not going to be the strong hands they’re not going to

Be your your diamond hands that hold this thing into the next cycle they were all the late people who were just trying to Buck uh get on a trend and essentially you want to see them washed out you want to fade them hopefully it holds up above these levels as I just

Pointed out consolidates and then starts to move higher as a mega bull that what you want to see happen to salana get rid of the weak the strong start to consolidate and accumulate again unfortunately at higher prices but that’s the price we pay for a strong

Altcoin now the reason I think this is possibly a complacency is let’s bring up the chart our Wall Street cheat sheet you can see that we get the complacency the anxiety denial panic but as I said in this case it might not be as deep as what happened in the bare Market because

Well as we’ve covered before it doesn’t seem like we are in the midst of a bare Market it seems like we’re in the early stages of a bull where the market essentially has done this you had the anger you’ve had the uh move down into depression this low right here September

2023 the news for salana and FTX was that FTX was going to dump their 80% of the soul that they had and that was going to dump salt and it didn’t the that marked the exact bottom of salana and then of course it it pumped from that point so here is your massive

Disbelief pump but all pumps need a correction so if we get that correction that’s going to be a good thing then we start to head up into the Hope optimism Etc and you get your nice big solid bull market that you’d all been hoping for so for Bitcoin in the immediate term you

Want to be watching 42,2 which was that 50% level the low for the last two days has come in almost dead on that number so if we start to see that breakdown you probably see it come back to test the next low and then it could could be a

Quick run into this zone right here which for prices are roughly 415,000 down to about $40,000 that could send altcoins bleeding that’s what we want to see that is the correction the entry point over this period of time where we want to get in for those 25 50 100x due to the

Altcoin gains coming later in 2024 and 2025 but unfortunately we got to hopefully well in this case it’s unfortunate but hopeful we get the early pain to get in and then wait for that next stage I’ve had fun presenting you with the data for the macro cycles and

Of course Bitcoin and cryptos channel sponsors down below use those links and you can get access to our free trading workshops coming up absolutely free using those specific links guys I’ll see you at the next video share like subscribe until then take care and peace out