Ethereum ETF – Is it time to rotate into ETH? // $4,000 this year

Ethereum ETF: The deadline for a decision on a spot Ethereum ETF has been set for May 23rd this year.

So let’s take a look at how likely it is to be approved, key levels to watch for and just how far this narrative can take price in 2024.

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⏱ Timestamps

00:00 – Intro
00:55 – Crypto liquidity since spot ETF approvals
01:27 – A $4,000 USD target for ETH this year?
01:54 – ETF deadline dates
02:53 – The probability of an ETF being approved in May
04:18 – ETH/BTC analysis
05:45 – BTC vs ETH pre-spot ETF approvals

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It’s been pretty clear that Bitcoin has been the driver of the crypto Market’s rally over the past 12 months or so but what if this ethereum spot ETF in May is going to be the next narrative that pushes the market into overdrive that’s what I’m going to talk about in this

Video and we’re going to look at some technical levels for eth BTC and decide whether or not it’s the time to rotate into ethereum of course last Friday we saw $430 million us flow into the BTC spot ETFs in a single day and the start to the BTC spot ETFs that were approved

In January have been the best start to any ETF products in the history of ETFs so I think there’s quite a great incentive for asset managers and issuers of these ETFs to have their products approved that deadline for approval now Falls to may but we’ll talk about that

In a moment what I want to look at is how BTC has impacted the interest overall in in the crypto market so here we’re looking at the overall liquidity that’s coming into the market in the form of stable coins and that’s come out of a bare market and recently turned

Green we’re looking at week- on we change here and that’s positive that’s not going to only just affect Bitcoin but it’s going to affect the wider crypto market so that’s the power of this Narrative of the spot atfs and if ethereum can have one approved in May

That’s going to I think shift this Market into overdrive standard charted is saying that the C are likely to approve ethereum ETFs on May 23rd and they predict a potential $4,000 Target for eth if it mimix btc’s pre-approval performance of course BTC The Narrative that was the spot ETF approval

Throughout 2023 pushed it to its highs and is still pushing it to to its highs given the success it’s had during its early days having a look at the wider time frames for all of the filers the applicants for these eth ETFs we’re looking at vanak and also Arc to be

First in line so you’ve got the 23rd over on the right here the 23rd of May the 24th of May and then the 30th of May but you know if we get one of these approved it’s very likely that the rest of them get approved as well and I don’t

Think it’s these dates that matter so much it’s the lead up to these dates that’s going to move the market as we saw with Bitcoin most of that move was priced in ahead of time so if ethereum is going to move leading into this may headline on speculation that this can be

Approved and we could see a similar price action to what we saw with Bitcoin people are going to to latch onto that narrative and eth is going to quickly take over the dominant flows in the crypto market and that’s going to be I think a narrative to watch definitely

Over the coming months or even start to think about right now but we’ll go through some technical levels to watch in a moment what are the odds of this ETF being approved for ethereum so James and Eric have been quite on the ball with the Bitcoin ETF and they basically

Nailed it 12 months out um Eric balunis says that there’s a 70% chance that a spot at ETF will be approved in May and he is the senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg so someone that deals with this and is getting the upto-date information when it’s Avail first

Available so Mark yuso who is CEO at Morgan Creek capital he’s he’s a bit of a Bitcoin Maxi though um so maybe he has a bit of a bias here he gives less than 50% odds that a spot other ETF will be approved in the US by 2024 he argued

That the sa of course Gary gansler is still hostile towards crypto given his message even on the day that they approved Bitcoin if you listen to the ETF analysts they’re pretty optimistic if you listen to the Bitcoin Maxis maybe they’re a little bit more pessimistic but um you read between the lines there

And I think I’d go with the ETF analysts and they’re giving it a 70% chance that it is approved so to me that’s a pretty good punt that if you’re buying into this narrative similar to what happened to BTC if ether is going to be approved

Or the market thinks it’s going to be approved bit um ethereum is going to see a pretty drastic markup in price in uh just a few months getting back to the Chart now so I guess this information is great but how do we put it into action

And come up with some ideas on where eth versus Bitcoin where eth versus the rest of the market is looking good and I think that you know we’ve got this trend line that’s been down only since September 2022 which I think was around the merge um so we had the merge

Narrative which took eth from the lows up to the highs just in a matter of a few months which you know could play out this time around but with an ATF and then it fell off lacking any specific narrative going forward Bitcoin of course had a powerful narrative in its

Spot ATF and against bet say ethereum has been trending lower given that fact for the best part of the last two years so where do I see this Market head if ethereum can start to gain some traction I think this level here at 55 is a very important level if we can

Start to flip that and accept it on the daily time frame this is the weekly time frame we’re looking at here I think that would be the moment that I think it would be go time um eth versus BTC if we see something like this that chart the

Chart as it is now starts to look a lot better you know then we risk breaking this trend line to the upside and all of a sudden the chart looks pretty damn good again I think so while we’re at this level it’s a little bit like catching a falling knife and investing

Or trading you should never catch a falling knife now going back over to the ethereum US dollar chart and of course if we’re looking at bitcoin’s action pre ETF and then comparing that to ethereum um I’ve overlaid the candle pattern from what Bitcoin did in 2023 onto this chart

If we take a look at that so something like this not saying it’s going to exactly play out like that but um Bitcoin is trading up around its 2022 highs now at this level so if ethereum is going to follow suit we can expect that level those 2022 highs to be you

Know a logical Target if we go and look at Bitcoin what it has done and it’s trading exactly there so the 2022 highs that is where Bitcoin is trading now so Standard Charter $4,000 Target like they say here um matches up with those 2022 highs so analysts can throw targets it’s like

Throwing a Target um a dart at a dart board with these targets but that to me also makes sense if we’re going to see some traction from this ETF narrative and eventually have an e e e ETF approved so that is you know not off the

Cards in in my opinion if we see speculation around this narrative kickoff which I do think is highly likely given how the market is positioned we’ve got a lot of new interest coming into the market the Bitcoin harving and altcoin Mania yet to kick off on this leg higher if you

Enjoyed the content please leave a like on the video subscribe and let me know what you think is ethereum going to see a leg higher is ethereum dead is it going to start outperforming Bitcoin today tomorrow next week let me know I’ll check out the comments and hope to

See you on the next video