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https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-buy-stocks-in-a-presidential-election-year-history-has-a-crazy-stat-for-you
https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/how-presidential-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/all-time-highs-usually-lead-to-more-all-time-highs-in-the-stock-market/
https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm/securities/documents/cwm-documents/Is-it-worth-considering-investing-at-all-time-highs.pdf

Are Republicans or Democrats Better for the Stock Market?

*None of this is meant to be construed as investment advice, it’s for entertainment purposes only. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

All in so that’s about as complicated as I’d ever want my technical analysis to get but also last week the stock market did something incredible it reached a peak of over 5,000 and for reference 5,000 points for the S&P 500 is the highest that it has ever reached in the stock

Market’s history now if by the time you’re watching this video you notice that the stock market has gone down it’s because I bought in you’re welcome but also any time the stock market reaches an all-time high people get super excited even people like Michael burry who’s the guy who predicted the 2008

Global financial crisis apologize for telling people to sell their stocks and as someone who’s been investing in the stock market since 20 2014 and someone who still considers himself to be a complete amateur and I’m still learning and still have a lot to learn I wanted

To find out what happens after the stock market reaches an all-time high based on historic data because right now we have a couple interesting things going on in the market like for example there’s something called The Magnificent 7 the seven tech stocks of the stock market that are usually leading the way and

Making most of the money and right now just four of them Amazon meta Microsoft and Nvidia are responsible for 69% of the stock market’s growth this year that’s kind of insane it’s like having 500 people on a sports team and four of them are doing 70% of the leg work also

One of those stocks Nvidia just reached a market cap that’s bigger than China’s entire stock market also now that it’s election year in 2024 things are about to get pretty spicy and I want to know just for myself what happens next should I pause investing should I invest even more money

What does history tell us should technically happen next that’s what I want to show you so let’s get into it hi my name is Andre J hope you’re doing well come for the finance and stay for the all-time highs and speaking of all-time highs what I found really

Interesting is that when this index the S&P 500 crashes that tends to happen when the stock market reaches an all-time high and that’s kind of weird because I thought stock market crashes could happen at any time and the truth is they can but they tend to happen either during an all-time high or

Somewhere near the peak after the stock market experienced a huge amount of growth now there’s lots of Corrections and smaller crashes throughout history of 10% or more but typically history shows that these crashes tend to happen when the market reaches a new Peak now it doesn’t always happen right away but

If you look at arguably the five most famous stock market crashes the great crash of 1929 1987’s Black Monday 222.000 8 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic all those five the stock market crashed while it was at its all-time high or somewhere near it and we just

Reached a new all-time high the truth is markets don’t just crash because they’ve reached an all-time high it’s a lot more complicated than that but what’s also interesting is that when the market does reach its all-time high it gets going really fast like remember when the stock

Market was super excited to see its first trillion company well in 2018 Apple became the first one to do it actually that’s not true it was Petro China that reached it in 2007 for a brief period of time but for most people they’ll remember apple as being the

First one in 2018 but the point is just 2 years later Apple doubled its market cap to $2 trillion and now we have at least seven companies that are worth one trillion dollar with Microsoft becoming the most valuable company in the world surpassing Apple at 3 trillion dollar

Think about how crazy that is it took us centuries to see the first real trillion doll company and now recently we’re seeing them pop up everywhere and for a lot of people seeing these high numbers and these all-time highs is making them scared to invest their money because it

Makes us feel like we’re investing at an all-time high when stocks are overvalued but here’s what history shows us usually happens next so history shows us that when the stock market reaches an all-time high the next thing that should happen is a series of more all-time highs here’s a really interesting chart

From a wealth of commonsense.com it shows data going back to the 1950s that when there’s a new all-time high it’s usually followed by a cluster of more all-time highs back to back that’s why in January 20124 the stock market set six new all-time highs so there were at

Least six periods in January this year when the stock market went higher and higher to the highest point it’s ever been but the question I ask myself is should I invest more money at an all-time high it doesn’t feel like I should it’s so counterintuitive but this

Next part blew my mind this is data from JP Morgan and their research shows that when investors invested money at an all-time high it made them more money than had they invested their money any other day check this out since 1988 investing on a normal day that’s not an

All-time high a one-year return has averaged 11.7% but if you invested at an all-time high and stayed invested for at least a year the return jumped to 14.6% and if that money stayed invested for 3 years the Gap increased from 39.1 to 50.4% and even at the 5-year Mark it’s

Still higher than any other day the question is why does that happen isn’t the whole idea Buy Low and sell high or in reddit’s case buy high and sell low and the theory behind why these all-time highs clustered together like that is because of human psychology when we see

The stock market go up we tend to put more of our money into it so everybody fomos in and the stock market goes even higher when that happens the media picks up on it people start to make YouTube videos about it and we feel left out so

Not to feel left out we put our money into it causing the stock market to go higher and it’s a feedback loop but eventually the stock market gets disconnected from reality and from fundamentals and that’s when investors sell this is also why volatility and downward movements clustered together

Because when the stock market Falls people start to sell the stocks they bought into the most which in this case happen to be tech stocks and we’ve already seen a huge sell-off with tech and small market cap stocks which is also why they’re making the biggest comeback right now it’s the herd

Mentality of the stock market that makes it work the way it does but 2024 is also an election year and I wanted to know what happens to the stock market next every time there’s an election year it feels like both Democrats and Republicans are like this is the most

Important election of our lifetime if you don’t elect our president the economy will crash but if you elect our president the stock market will go up and what’s interesting is that elections do make a difference to the stock market in the short term but the long term the

Stock market doesn’t care it’ll continue to go up but what’s even more interesting is that there is a magical combination of both Democrats and Republicans coming together to not work together that the stock market really likes but first I also want to show you some of the more recent election

Selections to see which president had the best stock market in the first three years of presidency from best to worst it was President Barack Obama Donald Trump Joe Biden and then George W bush but so far under President Joe Biden the S&P 500 Index increased 30.5% now we

Still have another year for Mr Biden and this year the stock market could go crazy but as as good as 30% is one of the best 4-year stock market periods was actually under President Donald Trump when the stock market went up 67.2% from when he took office to when

He left office now if we ignore all the things that make up the economy like employment interest rates geopolitics and so many other things between the two you could say that Mr Trump is probably better for the stock market because he’s seen as more Pro business but I I think

It’s too early to declare a winner and we have to look at some more data and here’s a chart that shows how well each party’s president did in the year that they were elected now it’s missing 2020 data but the market was up about 16% that year so in line with averages now

From all of this data one thing we could say for sure is that during an election year the stock market tends to go up in fact out of the last 16 election years the stock market has gone down only twice and that was during the year 2000

And 2008 which were just crazy years so assuming that luck is on our side and we don’t have some crazy Black Swan event happen the stock market should technically go up in 2024 which is also an election year now if you look at this data and you compare all the numbers

That are blue against all the numbers that are read you’d probably say that having a republican as president is better for the stock market and you’d actually be kind of wrong but also kind of right and here’s why if you cherry pick the right data you can prove

Anything and this is true of election years as well because if we go back to data farther than the 1960s like I originally showed you like for example back to 1926 we can learn even more interesting things about the stock market since 1926 we’ve had 23 presidential elections now a republican

Was President for 47 years and a Democrat was President for 51 years now the average return for the S&P 500 when a republican was president was 9.3% now the average for the S&P when a Democrat was president was 14.7% so clearly from that data Democrats are better for the stock

Market and you’d be forgiven for thinking that if Democrats represent your beliefs because of confirmation bias but if you keep on digging and you keep on looking you’ll find out that Democrats are not necessarily better when you factor in Congress and who controls it Congress is of course

Divided into the house and the Senate and when it’s divided it just means neither party controls both doesn’t really matter who controls which as long as it’s divided now check this out a unified Republican control of both Congress and the presidency resulted in a return of 14.5% and that is better if

Only slightly better than a unified Democratic control at 14% so in terms of full control of everything Congress and the presidency Republicans are actually slightly better but when magic happens when everything comes together and gives us the best result for the stock market is when power is divided in a very

Specific way if Congress is divided with a Republican president the stock market only made 7.3% but when Congress was divided with a Democratic president the stock market made a huge 16.6% that’s insane that means right now we have the best outcome that we could hope for because the 118th Congress

Which we have right now is divided we have a Democratic Senate majority and a republican House Majority and the president is a Democrat so the first best outcome is what we have right now the second best outcome is when Republicans control everything and the third best outcome is when Democrats

Control everything but I think it’s funny that when we come together and power is divided that’s when the stock market’s like while you guys argue and get nothing done that’s when I’ll make money that means that right now this year in this moment at the stock market

All-time high in an election year is the best we could ever hope for which I guess is reason that’s good enough to continue to invest and a dollar cost average I’ll leave all the sources down below for you to check out and look at it’s really fascinating stuff but in the

Meantime I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day smash the like button subscribe if you haven’t already don’t forget to grab your free stocks links are down below and then go track them automatically with a spreadsheet link Down Below in my patreon love you thank

You so much for watching this video I’d love to see you back here on Monday and Friday sometimes a Wednesday see you soon bye-bye