Peter Schiff Says Bitcoin To $100,000?

Peter Schiff is the Chief Economist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and the Chairman of Schiff Gold. In this conversation, we talk about the current US economy, inflation, soft landing, global liquidity, national debt, credit system, gold, stocks, and why he is mentioning bitcoin and $100,000 in the same sentence.

TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 – Intro
0:17 – Current US economy
8:10 – Inflation
12:53 – Asset prices
15:45 – US consumers
22:47 – Stocks & bitcoin
34:05 – Will Peter admit he is wrong?
36:28 – Central banks
42:23 – Larry Fink: “Flight to quality”
45:35 – Capital allocation
50:19 – Bitcoin to 100k?

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Can Bitcoin rally to a 100 Grand you know or more sure it can but I don’t even think it’s worth betting on it because it’s not even that big a rise do you think that that’s going to happen all right guys bang bang we’ve got Peter here Peter the US economy

Everyone says that things are going well soft Landing is here Jerome Powell he’s the superhero I’m assuming you disagree what is going on in the US economy and where all the dead bodies buried at the moment everybody is wrong I mean they’re more wrong than they were in the summer

Of 2008 when everybody thought it was a Goldilocks economy and we were in the worst recession since the Great Depression remember that depression or that recession started in December of 2007 but the government didn’t acknowledge its existence for a year it wasn’t until December of ’08 that the

Government said you know what we’ve actually been in a recession for an entire year and in fact it’s the worst one since the Great Depression so all the economic data that we’ve been spoon feeding the markets for the past year has been wrong and everybody who thought

We had a good Economy based on that data uh was wrong in fact we were in a severe recession and we had a financial crisis I think the economy is worse now than it was then I think the recession that we’re going to be living through uh and

It’s probably already begun is going to be far worse than the Great Recession so it’s going to be a greater recession and what’s going to compound the problem is going to be inflation which is not dead and buried as the markets believe it’s alive and well and today’s uh numbers

From January CPI uh you know support that that view uh inflation is headed back up in fact if you annualize the core number that came out today it’s 5% uh you know the the headline is running closer to 4% I think it was 3.7 if you annualize it but look at what’s

Happening to oil prices uh they’re moving back up uh bond yields are rising sharply again but I I think the real key is that the fed’s rate hikes did nothing to reduce consumer borrowing or spending consumers continue to spend and borrow even though credit card interest rates

Are at an all-time record high they’re above 20% credit card balances are at an all-time high consumers are not responding to higher interest rates by reducing their borrowing and spending and they’re not saving more which is what they have to do uh savings is still falling and look at the government government budget

Deficits are rising in the face of rising interest rates so the government is not uh cutting back on its spending so the FED has done nothing to put out the inflation fire that it lit so the markets have got this thing totally wrong there is no soft Landing there’s a

Crash landing in fact the markets don’t even think there’s going to be a landing they think we’ve avoided in recession altogether but we’re going to have a severe recession depression if we’re not already there and inflation is going to get worse the entire time which is going

To not only compound the severity of the recession but expose uh the the the the the paper tiger that the FED is because the FED is not going to be able to raise interest rates uh in the face of a resurgent inflation because the economy can’t

Handle it I mean I think that’s the main reason that pal pivoted it’s not because he won the inflation fight it’s because he realized that if he kept fighting uh the economy would be a collateral damage we’d have a financial crisis uh and everything would collapse beneath the

Weight of those rising Rising rates so let’s look at um the fed’s actions over the last two years or so they in November of 2021 said hey things are hot we are going to start tightening up here we’re going to start increasing interest rates we’re going to stop buying Assets

In the market they continued for a little while by March of 2022 they begin to actually put that into uh effect when I look at the fed’s balance sheet it has come down when I look at interest rates they have gone up but at the same time politicians continue to spend money like

Drunken Sailors and so if you look at it on a net basis both the central bank and the fiscal policy that’s been implemented have we actually been tightening the economy or is your argument that we’re actually easing still even though if you look at the fed’s actions it looks like they’re

Tightening yeah know I think we’ve had an easy uh policy inflationary policy the entire time the fed’s been tightening I mean yes the FED has been less loose but I don’t believe that less loose constitutes tight but the entire time the Fed was being less loose the government uh was

Loose I mean because you have uh an expansionary monetary policy even if you look at the Keynesian textbooks which you know are worthless but even according to KES if you have an inflation problem the government needs to raise taxes cut spending it needs to have some type of

Contractionary um fiscal policy the type of fiscal policy that we’ve been running for the entirety of the fed’s inflation fight has been the classic Keynesian stimulative policy that you’re supposed to run when your problem is recession and you’re not concerned about inflation so these have been diametrically opposed

Policies and anytime pal gets asked about it or doesn’t even get asked about it anymore if he’s asked to comment about these you know government spending and budget deficits he says hey I can’t talk about that that’s not in my Lane he says I’m only concerned about monetary

Policy but he can’t be because it the fiscal and monetary policy go hand in glove you can’t be oblivious to the the spending because the reason that you know money supply growth or low interest rates the reason that uh causes prices to rise is because it it fuels demand

And there’s not enough Supply and so prices go up but government spending all also fuels demand and so does credit I mean the entire time that Pal’s been looking at interest rates he’s been oblivious to the credit markets because credit continues to expand and if you go back to the classic definition of

Inflation it’s not just an expansion of the supply of money it’s an expansion of supply of credit because you can buy without money if you have credit credit can also fuel demand and and and so we we’ve been spending and spending the only thing that really brought down the the CPI was

A we had a huge Spike right so nothing goes into straight line but it was the anticipation of the rate hikes that brought the dollar up the dollar gained about 30% against you know Global currencies that brought down import prices that brought down oil prices and that helped bring down headline number

But that’s a transitory effect I think oil prices have already bottomed that are turning back higher um and and bond yields too bond yields came down uh that helped bring mortgage rates down but now they’re going the other way bond yields are rising again uh and and so uh that’s

Going to put more upward pressure on rents because now buying a home becomes that much less affordable uh so all all the factors are now operating in reverse and the markets are completely clueless they’re positioned the wrong way so it we’re in a very dangerous point for equities bonds everything because

Everybody is betting on an outcome that is not going to happen when we see inflation coming from over 9% to close to 3% in year-over-year there is also recently A month-over-month number that came out where it’s 3% so you begin to annualize that out and that’s not a good number

How do you balance year-over-year measure versus month over month which one’s more important to you well I mean you could take all these numbers with a great assault because I don’t think they they completely capture what’s really going on I think there’s a lot more price pressure than is evident

In these numbers you know ironically um uh Biden pointed this out in that little Super Bowl video uh where he started chastising companies for shrinking their product sizes rather than raising prices and kind of blaming the company’s Greed for for this but the reason companies are doing this is to

Avoid having to raise prices they’re trying to figure out ways to raise prices without annoying their customers and so they’re doing it by playing around with the quantity or the quality but ironically this is helping the CPI keep stay low because the CPI doesn’t really capture uh the degreg in quantity

They’re just looking mostly at price and so ironically the companies that are doing this are actually helping Biden uh by obscuring the full extent that his inflation is driving up their cost of living um but I think that what’s important when you’re looking at the CPI is looking at what’s happened over the

Last six months or so if you look at these numbers they’ve stopped improving and to me it looks like we’ve built a bottom like a base like if if the CPI was a stock you’d want to go long you know it’s it’s it’s it’s broken out and now it’s pulled back and

Consolidated and it looks like it’s it’s going higher but again from the fundamental perspective you know that inflation is going to pick up we’re running $2 trillion do a year budget deficits how is that going to be financed and the national debt is actually growing by almost a trillion

Dollar a quarter that’s $4 trillion a year and we’re not even you know officially in recession yet the unemployment rate is still below 4% imagine when it’s above 8% I mean if the deficits are this high now imagine where they’re headed plus you have all this debt that’s maturing that nobody wants

To buy you know so the fed’s going to buy it where’s going to get the money the Social Security trust funds are already broke they are in the market selling treasuries the the funds used to be the big buyers of treasuries other than the FED now they’re selling and you know

Look at the the interview that uh Tucker Carlson had with Putin one of the things at least that Putin mentions was the dollarization and he’s pointing out he says why don’t Americans how how could you guys be so clueless about what’s happening I mean he’s warning us that we

Did something very stupid in weaponizing the dollar and he’s pointing out that look you know global trade lot of this trade that used to take place in dollars ain’t taking place in dollars anymore and that trend is going to continue and so that means less demand for treasuries

From abroad so if the Social Security trust funds are selling if foreigners are selling Who the hell’s going to buy it it’s just the fed and so we are going to get hit with a tsunami of inflation uh in the years ahead I I don’t know what when the markets are going to

Figure this out uh but but so far that have it I mean that’s why the price of gold dropped $25 this morning it’s back below 2,000 for the first time uh this year um but the the markets are saying oh no we’re not going to get the rate

Cuts the gold doesn’t care about those rate Cuts what the markets don’t get is that the FED has lost the inflation fight that inflation is not going away and in fact even though the FED is not going to be uh cutting rates as much or as soon as the markets believe in fact

They may not cut them at all inflation is headed higher and that means real rates are going down even if the FED stays put and that’s what’s going to be bullish for gold and of course it’s inflation that’s going to be bullish for gold uh so the markets don’t get it yet

That’s why gold is sold off uh but you know at some point you know they’re going to figure it out how much of asset price movements that have occurred over the last call it six months or so uh is people positioning for a potential fed pivot in interest rate decisions uh

Versus global liquidity and Global liquidity specifically saying the FED may be tightening but for a while towards the end of last year we saw China pumping tons of liquidity in now China all of a sudden is talking about this massive issue in the stock market and I’ve seen numbers in the trillions

That they may pump into their stock market to kind of uh make sure everything is okay uh kind of take borrowing from the QE Playbook that the US perfected in 2008 and so is it interest rates people are looking at is it Global liquidity situation maybe it’s

Both yeah I I think it is both I mean the one thing we know it’s not the fundamentals you know it’s it’s it’s it’s all just inflation it’s anticipation of more cheap money uh of not just rate uh Cuts but I think the market is anticipating a return to

Quantitative easing I mean probably first an end to quantitative tightening or some type of tapering of the quantitative tightening program and then a return to quantitative easing uh the markets are just expecting more of this and I think that’s what’s driving it but of course if you look at the markets uh

You know the Market’s not really going up you have a handful of big stocks that are going up and that is distorting the averages I mean most stocks are not going up um and you know companies are having a lot of problems uh in the current environment uh with you know

Rising rates or rates where they are and you know consumers are are broke I mean they’re they they’ve been able to get to where they are by you know maxing out their credit cards but the cost of servicing that debt is increasingly higher uh student loans now people are

Supposed to be paying those a lot of people just aren’t uh but obviously some people are paying the student loans and they weren’t paying them for a number of years and so that’s draining purchasing power rents have gone up um you know I I

I know look I just got a bill from my uh property tax in Connecticut and all of a sudden they revalued my house by like 30 or 40% now some people might think oh this is great your house is worth more no they’re doing that because they’re

Going to hit me with a huge increase in my property taxes you know so I mean people are getting clobbered with higher taxes higher interest rates Insurance my my homeowners insurance is already more than doubled uh you know so these are huge price increases that are that are draining

Uh families that’s why you have this explosion in Moonlighting that’s why so many people are taking two or three jobs that’s why the jobs numbers look so good because so many people are forced to take on second and third jobs because that’s the only way that they can pay uh these higher

Prices so when we are watching the US economy um headed towards what many people are saying a soft Landing uh could be achieved uh we also see uh people like Barry sterick saying that inflation is actually going to go negative we’re going to have a deflation

Reading on the CPI uh we see things like credit card uh debt hitting all-time highs interest rates on that credit card debt hitting near all-time highs like there’s all these data points that seem like investors are saying one thing but the consumer is acting in a very

Different way and so how do you look at the Investment Portfolio versus the consumer behavior and who’s right like is the consumer able to op escate what they’re actually doing by using credit and other means or do the investors have a better read in terms of looking at

Financial assets and they’re really the ones who are highlighting what is the current state of the US economy well I think one of the best barometers of the state of the US economy is Biden’s popularity or his lack of popularity I mean what else would explain the fact

That he’s the most unpopular president in the history of you know these polls of uh uh you know popularity I mean I mean the only explanation is the economy and in fact if you look at the the questions when they pull voters that’s where Biden scores the lowest it’s on the economy

Now that’s because the people who are responding to these polls they are living in the actual economy they’re not living in the fantasy that’s created by you know government numbers and that’s the fantasy that Biden and all of his you know minions are trying to sell right the media is constantly bombarding

The public with how great the economy is you go to your you know ABC NBC CBS CNN right MSNBC any of these stations with the exception of like fox or like the you know like the Newsmax or the one americ news but you know the mainstream of the media the narrative is the

Economy is great and Biden gets the credit like he’s like he’s he’s a masterful uh economic you know strategy biomics we’ve got this booming economy every time you hear fed chairman pal speak he talks about how strong the economy is how you know resilient it is

How strong the labor market is right so the the public is being bombarded with positive messages about how great the economy is yet they score Biden extremely low when it comes to the economy so it’s because they are living in and they know it’s bad and so I think

That’s a good look but obviously if savings are collapsing that’s a bad sign people would rather have their savings going up if you if you ask the typical American hey would you rather have your savings increase or or or or be depleted most people would rather have more money

To save uh if you look at credit card debt you think people want to be you know this deep in debt is that a good sign that people are so deep in debt I don’t think the public likes the fact that they have to borrow so much money

And a lot lot of this debt is being taken on just to to buy gas to buy food uh you know so you eat the food it’s gone right but the debt is there you know indefinitely until you go bankrupt so the the anecdotal evidence is very strong that we have a weak

Economy you know the only thing you can point to is the low unemployment rate or these GDP numbers but I think the GDP numbers again don’t tell the story because so much of that ending which is not really economic growth is being financed by debt either the government

Is taking on debt and spending money or the consumer is taking on debt and spending money and we’re scoring that spending as economic growth and we’re ignoring all the debt that we’ve accumulated to make it possible uh so we’re actually spending ourselves into bankruptcy is what’s going on uh so the

Real economy is very weak so you got to you know tune out those the GDP numbers and the unemployment numbers I mean they’re going to revise these things I mean I I just don’t think think they’re accurate at all and if you if you compare the the the establishment survey

To the household survey and you see these wild divergences in these numbers you know look at these massive layoffs all the big companies have been laying off workers Who the hell’s hiring them I mean the government obviously assumes that a lot of businesses are being

Established who I doubt it I I bet there are businesses that are shutting down I think the government is is is is um miscalculating this because they’re so optimistic on the economy just assume that new businesses are starting uh but when in reality they’re probably shutting down and that you know so they

Got they they’re they’re making up jobs that don’t exist uh and the unemployment rate you know a lot of people probably don’t qualify anymore for unemployment uh they’re not working or they’re working you know barely you know they’re they they got a job at Uber or

Or something like that uh but um but they’re not really doing much and they’re not counted as unemployed anymore uh so you know those numbers I think uh don’t really reflect um the weakness that’s there in the economy and I think you know that’s going to

Continue to you know uh reveal itself I think as as the year progresses and and things get even weaker than they are now and inflation gets stronger how many of the jobs are government jobs like is the government just hiring tons of tons of people a lot a lot of the jobs are

Government jobs unfortunately whether it’s federal jobs and a lot of them are just Healthcare and you know a lot of the healthcare jobs are in effect government jobs because the government is paying all the bills for healthc care a good portion of the bills but government jobs are generally not only

Not productive they’re counterproductive government workers actually undermine the ability of private sector workers to produce like all these IRS agents that were that were hiring right is that a good thing that the government is hiring IRS agents to go harass more people and and and undermine their productivity uh you know

People that are there to enforce regulations and stuff like that uh you know this is not a good thing but the other problem obviously with the government job is where does the money come from to pay these workers you know because when the private sector hires

Somebody the wages are paid out of the productivity of the worker but the government workers doesn’t have any productivity also the private sector worker his salary is paid by the customers of the business when they buy the goods or services but the government doesn’t have any customers so who pays

The bills the taxpayer and if the government’s not raising our taxes they’re just going to run bigger deficits to pay these salaries which means these even more inflation gets created so we have to pay for all these government workers with higher prices when we see the assets that are

Going up AI stocks seem to be skyrocketing uh the Magnificent seven which is kind of a proxy for AI because everyone thinks that AI is going to be hot uh we see Bitcoin going up Etc does that concern you or do you think that that makesense I mean I don’t

Own I don’t own these stocks um you know that’s a very narrow group The Magnificent 7 although some of those stocks you know seem to have broken down a bit so maybe it’s only four or five of them that are still magnificent but um yeah people are going

To get hurt you know in these names I mean certainly they’re they they’ll benefit from AI but um I think you know a lot of that has been more than priced into these stocks at least you know the short-term benefits and there’s a lot of lot of problems that are that are

Overhanging uh the economy and the markets uh so you know a lot of people rushed into these stocks if they want to get out you know you don’t have the buying there um you know Bitcoin I think is part of the uh you know the the the

The uh the move to speculate and gamble which is obviously what’s going on but Bitcoin kind of had its own narrative with all those ETFs being launched you know now there’s a dozen or so Bitcoin ETFs and so there was a lot of hype there that led to that rally uh

Predictably when the ETFs were launched it was a sell the news event and they all dropped about 20 some OD percent very quickly they’ve recovered and made highs I think on the back of you know uh some renewed speculation I think this uh ETF conference down in Miami that’s

Going on right now there’s probably a lot of hyping and from my experience observing Bitcoin over the last several years you know there are constant you know times where there’s hype where there’s an opportunity uh for people to pump it up and then everybody kind of

Rushes in they buy in they you know they want to capitalize on that they expect there to be some follow through um and so you know I think that this you know now that you know when this conference ends which is Valentine’s Day or you know maybe the hypin before but I would

Expect uh the market to sell off you know Bitcoin got above 50,000 already I I wouldn’t expect you know much more upside I think it has a lot of lot of lot of resistance up in this area um why and letfs are there you know I

Just I I I I I I just don’t see what the next Catalyst for the rise I mean unless the ETFs ignite a whole new group of buyers I just don’t think they’re gonna bite all right I’ll take the bait ready I’m gonna tell you what I think is gonna

Happen over the coming months you tell me what you agree with and what you disagree with uh Bitcoin which really the long-term trend is just the more they print money the more that uh hard assets or kind of finite Supply assets are going to benefit so gold uh I think

Will continue to do decently well although the returns are small compared to bitcoin but Bitcoin and gold will both benefit from the undisciplined monetary policy uh but now that we have the ETFs there is $500 million a day of net inflows into these vehicles we’re a

Month out right so they got approved a month ago it’s not like it got approved yesterday we’re still getting $500 million a day there’s only 900 Bitcoin a day being produced by the network so 12.5x more demand than what the network is creating on a daily basis and then we

Are heading into about 70 days away or so from the Bitcoin having so that 900 Bitcoin is going to get cut to 450 Bitcoin and so if you have only $20 million or $25 million of Bitcoin getting created every day but you have $500 million trying to find Bitcoin the

Price has got to go up to accommodate everyone right well you’re assuming that the only Supply is the new Bitcoin that’s being mined I mean how many Bitcoin is already in circulation right now good question right now there there’s hold on a second right now there’s just over 90% of Bitcoin that’s

In circulation but of all 21 million Bitcoin or I’m sorry of all the uh Bitcoin that’s in circulation 80% it’s like 79.5% of that has not moved in the last six months so that is an IL uh inelastic supply people are holding it they’re not willing to sell it and so really you

Only have 20% or so that is tradable so at a trillion dollar asset you got about $200 billion dollar but the way I think about it is the Bitcoin ETFs if they’ve sucked up $10 billion already in 30 days that’s five% does that include whatever left grayscale that’s that’s all net

Inflows correct if you include grayscale grayscale’s got another 20 billion so now you got $30 billion dollar in these ETFs including grayscale 10 billion without uh grayscale and there’s only 200 billion that is actually tradable like this thing is highly IL liquid and you have all of this flow coming and the

Having on the horizon I might convince you today to buy Bitcoin today’s episode is brought to you by bass Bas is making it their mission to bring a billion people on chain what exactly is BAS it’s a layer two offering a seamless experience for both Builders and users

With near zero gas fees and Rapid transaction speeds Bas is shaping the future of the onchain world Bas is a canvas for everyone with hundreds of apps in the ecosystem whether you’re an emerging Creator a seasoned developer or someone exploring the onchain space for the first time Bas is designed to bring

Your ideas to life so if you’re looking for a platform where the future of onchain is being built daily Bas is your destination join in and make onchain the next online learn more at b.org or follow along on Twitter at build on base again that’s at build on base to see

Cool things to do on chain every single day now when you you make a a couple of assumptions there one is that the Bitcoin that hasn’t moved moved in 6 months won’t um that you know some people whoever owns that Bitcoin can decide they want they want to sell uh

Just because they didn’t sell over the last six months doesn’t mean they’re not going to sell uh over the next six months and also you assume that all the people that bought into these uh Bitcoin ETFs are going to hold long uh you have no idea what their uh time Horizon is

They may have bought for a trade uh they may sell you know just because somebody owns the ETF doesn’t mean they’re hoteling for the rest of their lives these could be a different type of investor who has come in uh and you don’t know how quickly they may they may

Take the other side of this trade um but yeah I mean I can certainly see that there is potential if enough uh in people you know fomo into this thing uh just out of greed I mean look people do a lot of dumb things you know uh and and Wall

Street certainly uh will encourage it that they think they can make money so you’ve got all these firms now that own these Bitcoin ETFs it’s like if I own a casino I’m going to try to get people to come gamble at my Casino even if that

Even if I know that it’s bad for them right I mean they’re going to lose I’m I’m operating the casino I’m going to win and and so the ETF owners right these big firms yeah they want to Hype up their their new casinos that they just spent a lot of money building and

They want to get people in and um yeah I mean so are people dumb enough to buy these ETFs sure you know I mean and just having money doesn’t mean you’re automatically smart there there’s there’s some dumb people that have money but in the end the dumb people are going

To be separated from their money um and and so but can Bitcoin rally to a 100 Grand you know more more sure it can but I don’t even think it’s worth betting on it because it’s not even that big a rise do you think that that’s gonna happen do you think

Think Bitcoin going go to 100K I I it probably won’t but I’m just I mean it could but I just don’t think there’s enough upside anymore in Bitcoin for it to be interesting to anybody I mean there there are plenty of other things that you can buy that have more upside

Than Bitcoin not gold but well I think gold does have more upside than Bitcoin long term but do I think look do I think gold is likely to double in the next year or two probably not I mean it could but gold stocks could they could triple they

Could quadruple they’re super cheap I I I I’d rather do that you know um than than get into Bitcoin um you know it it yeah there was a lot of potential you know and not that I took advantage of it but you know when Bitcoin was you know under a thousand or

Under a 100 wherever even you know when it wasn’t constantly talked about uh when you know people were you know most of the Wall Street Community was bashing Bitcoin back then I wasn’t you know alone everybody was bashing Bitcoin all the big names were saying it was

Ridiculous you know so nobody really was owning it you know there there was no uh El Salvador or micro strategy other stuff was around they didn’t have all the nfts I mean so there you know there was more upside in it if you wanted to gamble on

It you know yeah you know you you know it was like a lottery ticket and it paid off but at this point there’s just not enough upside I mean it’s been going sideways now for three years I mean it hit the high almost hit 70,000 in 2021

Right this is 2024 all the hype uh all the promotions um you know I I think the I think these ETFs this was the last chance to sucker in new buyers and we’ll see if if if it works but it may not I

Mean I just you know I I I I I I don’t think it’s going to be sold so for example I mean I was a broker for 30 years you a licensed stock broker this is the first year that I’m not th anymore but I don’t believe that

Commission Brokers or the firms that employ them are going to allow the solicitation of these these uh ETFs especially in an IRA I I I I don’t believe that there be there’s any brokerage firm that is going to let a broker recommend that these be bought an

IRA I mean it’s just you’re asking for a lawsuit that you’re going to lose if it goes down so I don’t see it I I let me finish I don’t I don’t think any you know fiduciary money managers of which I still am at EUR Pacific Asset Management

I’m a registered investment adviser as a fiduciary I don’t think most fiduciaries are going to take the risk of putting this in the portfolios I just don’t think so so I think that the demand for these ETFs is going to come from unsolicited buying uh of of individuals mainly and I I

Don’t think that’s going to be enough to move the needle uh the way the way you need it to be moved uh given where the market is what do you what is the price in which you will admit you’re wrong is it 100K is it a million dollars

No I mean look obviously too and I it’s funny because I on TW on Twitter or not Twitter on X you know I I made this comment cuz somebody said well Bitcoin is going to go to a million or some some crazy thing like that and I said well

You know if I I if if we have a situation like Yar Republic Germany and we have hyperinflation well then I guess Bitcoin can go to a million but so will everything else I mean if a loaf of bread is is 10 million a loaf does it

Matter if Bitcoin I mean none of that matters right so I kind of said that in Jess the only chance Bitcoin has to go to a million is hyperinflation and now I read you know dozens and dozens of articles from all these Bitcoin Publications Peter Shi predicts million

Dollar Bitcoin but um so yeah I mean there is a scenario where the price of Bitcoin could go to a million or I mean but it’s not going to mean you’re a millionaire if you own a Bitcoin I mean you’re a millionaire I mean yeah on paper but there’s a lot of millionaires

In Zimbabwe there there are a lot of millionaires uh you know in in in countries that have had hyperinflation um V has a lot of millionaires but right but their millions does don’t buy anything so that’s the way that yeah Bitcoin might go up in that in that in that sense but

It’s not going to go up in in a real sense if if Bitcoin is a million you know gold is probably going to be higher than that you think that gold hold on a second back up for that’s an absurd statement you think that if Bitcoin goes to a million doll that’s hyperinflation

If so if if if a ham sandwich cost a million dollars what do you expect an ounce of gold to cost let’s just say that Bitcoin goes to a million dollars I don’t expect an ounce of gold to be a million dollars well no I don’t think Bitcoin is going

To go to a million dollars unless there’s hyperinflation I I don’t think that Bitcoin is going to trade up to a million dollars on on just pure people gambling on it I I just don’t I just don’t see it it’s just it’s too big a move that too much money would have to

Come into it and you know I I just don’t think there’s that much dumb money in the world I mean there’s definitely a dumb money out there I mean don’t get me wrong what do you think what do you think about what do you think about central banks who uh they’ve been

Holding treasuries and they’ve been holding gold as treasury Reserve assets they’ve been doing this for a long time um and the United States they they got uh a little bit more sticky hands these days they you know They confiscated or they frozen assets of other central

Banks um do you think that central banks may look at uh Bitcoin given that it’s decentralized and censorship resistant as a way to insulate themselves from potential sanctions or freezing of their nation state assets well I think central banks look at Bitcoin but I don’t think they’re considering buying it if that’s

What you mean by look at it I mean they look at it but there’s no way they’re going to buy it um you know but they are buying gold and they’re going to continue to buy gold they’re going to buy more gold um you know they many they

Are dollarized they’re trying to get out of the dollar and um they’re not going to get into Bitcoin there’s just no way they would do that um you know they are looking for a conservative store of value to to to to act as a reserve Bitcoin even if you like Bitcoin Bitcoin

Is not a safe haven low volatile store of asset if if if your currency were to come under attack you wouldn’t be able to defend it with Bitcoin I mean because Bitcoin can crash more than your currency I mean Bitcoin is very unpredictable and very volatile so

There’s no way it it would not be able to satisfy the criteria of a central banker they’re not looking at the upside right when you’re a central Banker looking for reserves you’re not thinking hey I want to buy Bitcoin because it can go way up

Even if you think it might go way up you have to concede that there is a risk that it can go way down even if it ultimately goes way up Bitcoin could crash at any moment and so that’s not the type of asset that a central Banker

Is going to have as a reserve asset on his books the only real alternative it has to another fiat currency is gold so if I’m a central Banker I can choose between dollars Euros Yen pounds Swiss Franks gold right that’s those are my choices Bitcoin is not even within the

Realm of possibility even if they thought the price was going to go up they’re still not going to buy it so let’s just say everything you just said is true which it’s not but let’s just say it is um well no it is true what’s not true you’re you’re you’re

Saying Bitcoin is not volatile can’t drop a lot I’m saying that central banks that’s not the only thing they look at is protecting so here examp central banks have reserves do you know what the purpose of reserves are do you think that Venezuela when when Venezuela was begging for

Their gold back do you think that they started to think maybe we should try to find an asset that no one can take from us no know what they probably thought we should store our own gold we shouldn’t leave it at the FED that I mean that’s

What more countries are going to do they’re going to store their gold themselves that way they don’t have to worry about getting it back from anybody because they’ll still have it no but answer my question about what do you think the purpose of reserves are that a

Central bank has why do they have them I I think that uh most countries the reserves that they have uh historically have been for two things one they want to protect the uh wealth of the country and then two is uh I think that there are certain assets that they own not

Gold but let’s say treasuries Etc where they essentially are trying to participate in the Global Financial system but well no the the the reason they have reserves because the currency isn’t back by anything it’s a piece of paper but they have reserves so that they can move into the market if their

Currency starts to fall for whatever reason it’s the reserves of the central bank that enables the central bank to go into the market and intervene and buy back some of those currency units and they pay for it with their reserves to support the price to to to maintain

Confidence in that currency if you didn’t have any reserves you you have no way to protect your currency there’s not there’s nothing behind it so you need to have an asset that you know at any moment if you need to at any moment in time you can use that asset you can sell

That asset to buy back your currency and and support the price you can’t do that with Bitcoin because you got no idea where the hell Bitcoin is going to be and the bit bit coin Market isn’t liquid enough if you need to dump a whole bunch

Of Bitcoin on the market and in fact if a central bank was actually dumb enough to hold its reserves in Bitcoin and its currency started to fall and the market sensed oh my God this Central Bank is going to have to dump Bitcoin to protect its currency they would dump the Bitcoin

First they would start selling Bitcoin it’s like they’d put the Central Bank in a box it would make you very vulnerable you need a big liquid uh market like another like the dollar or like gold gold is liquid enough if some Central Bank has gold reserves and that central

Bank is in trouble the gold Market’s not going to crash you’re not going to be able to crash that market it’s too big uh the Bitcoin Market is is easy to manipulate and crash and if you get a bunch of selling so it just would it

Would never work all of this is a pipe fantasy central banks are not going to buy gold if if that’s why you’re buying Bitcoin then stop buying it you know I agree with you other individuals might buy gold there may even be some hedge funds you know or some private Equity or

Some some pension fund that might be dumb enough to buy it I don’t think there’ll be a lot of those but yeah I mean that could happen but there’s no way the central banks that’s not even within the realm of possibility do you think Larry fin is

Dumb no okay well Larry think he thinks that this is a flight to Quality buying Bitcoin and he thinks that Bitcoin is an asset that uh has unique properties that make it incredibly attractive for every investor in the world to hold well I don’t think that’s the case I don’t

Think Bitcoin has unique properties because I think there are plenty of other cryptocurrencies that have similar properties I don’t think it’s a flight to Quality uh in Bitcoin I think it’s uh it’s it’s it’s a trade I think it’s a it’s it’s a it’s a gamble uh now in some

People’s mind I have no doubt that you think it’s quality in your mind when you’re buying Bitcoin you know you’re buying what you believe to be quality um you think it’s a hard asset I mean I don’t think there’s anything hard about it but but you believe that and there

Are a number of people who also believe that I don’t I don’t deny that but just because people believe a lie doesn’t mean it’s true it just means that you believe it uh but the question is how much longer will you maintain this belief you know because eventually

People are going to stop belie right um you know all little kids believe they are no Claus they believe in the tooth fairy they believe in the Easter Bunny but they don’t believe in these things forever are you worried this is a great Point you’re you’re a

Very smart man this is a great Point are you worried about the younger generation having stopped believing in gold and they’re buying Bitcoin instead and they’re diverting what would have been Capital flows into gold now going into Bitcoin no not really I mean it’s gold doesn’t need people to believe in it

Gold is gold you know whether you believe in it or not um the young people who are buying um Bitcoin I think that the vast majority of them if there was no Bitcoin they would not be buying gold I mean on the margin some of them like the Libertarians or the anarco

Capitalists but I don’t think those are the majority of the Bitcoin buyers in the you know the 20s somethings or the teens whoever’s buying it I think that people who are buying Bitcoin are buying Bitcoin instead of you know some other tech stocks that they might have bought

Or maybe they’re using money that they would have spent on uh gambling on sports or lottery tickets or maybe they’re just um you know putting money in there that they would have spent they you know they they maybe they would have bought a nicer car or rented a nicer

Apartment but instead they’re you know they’re they’re putting some money in Bitcoin because they think they’re going to get rich I don’t think it’s taking that much of the demand away from gold because I think most of the demand for gold outside of industry and jewelry is

Is coming from um central banks and you know more sophisticated larger investors um and I think that the older people I mean if you look at the customers of shift gold um you know our customers are older by and large and it’s the older people you know 40s 50s

60s 70 year olds uh that have most of the money you know I mean you know now I’ve heard the argument that well when their the kids finally inherit this money they’re going to put it into BS Bitcoin uh well you know by the time uh they they inherit it we’ll see because

They they a they may grow out of their infatuation with Bitcoin or they may have lost so much money in Bitcoin that they that they no longer uh care about it when you think of the future give me how you’re thinking Capital allocation for your own portfolio are

You a lot in Gold are you in Gold stocks what else do you own how do you think of the percentages in the portfolio yeah I mean I mean unfortunately for myself I’ve been very overinvestment in Gold stocks for a long time I’ve had about half my portfolio in Gold stocks

And um at times you know that it’s done well but overall I mean the other half of my portfolio has done better which is not in Gold stocks at all um and but I do eventually think that gold stocks are going to be the best performers I just

You know I’ve been waiting for that for a while but as as far as what I advise that my you know clients do I don’t advise that people go as heavy as I did I mean you can if you want to um but for most people it’s more of a 10 15 20

Percentage you know allocation to these type of stocks gold stocks uh and the rest I invest in you know good quality dividend paying companies that are not dependent on the price of you know a commodity like gold it’s people that we’re selling goods and services uh that we know people are

Going to use they’re going to buy regardless of price they may buy less but they have to buy the products they need the services and I like to buy value I don’t like to overpay for the stocks I like to get a good dividend I

Want income uh when I own a business I want to share in the profits I want I want checks I want I want to I want to see my my my piece of the action and I you know I’ve been investing abroad because I’ve been anticipating this situation that is

Going to unfold here uh for a long time I mean it’s a long time coming it’s going to be where the game finally ends where the market Stop Believing the fantasy that everything is great because at some point inflation is going to run out of control and the fed’s not going

To be able to do anything about it I mean the FED could bark and bark and bark but they can’t bite I mean they tried and and every time they’ve tried they have to back off uh because we have too much debt and the reason we have too

Much debt is because of how easy they’ve been in the past and that’s made it impossible to tighten in the future because it’s like once you get everybody addicted to drugs you can’t take the drugs away you know that’s what the FED tries to do they they they they they get the economy

Hooked on 0% interest rates for a decade and all this quantitative easing and we build this whole phony Economy based on all this debt and then they say oh let’s we’re just going to take it away the whole thing comes crashing down every major bank would be insolvent today if

The FED actually raised rates to an appropriate level um the government would have to default on the national debt I mean it it would be a financial crisis you know on an order of magnitude many times greater than 2008 with no bailouts so the FED can’t do anything but when the markets

Figure this out that you know it’s it’s high inflation as far as the eye can see uh and with the potential of maybe hyperinflation who the hell knows you know how it’s going to end but the one thing we know is we’re not going back to

2% those days are over that was Transit you know it’s high inflation is a permanent part of the American way of life you know for the foreseeable future the markets just haven’t come to terms with that yet when it does the price of gold is going to go way up I think and

These gold stocks are going to go up even more and you know then I’ll end up uh you know with a big gain on on this portfolio but to the extent that I don’t get a big gain I’m fine the other half of my portfolio is plenty I I could lose

Half my portfolio and I’m still fine right so that’s part of it you have to be able to lose money when you invest in gold stocks so but if you’re willing to lose money um you know then you should because I think the opportunity to make

Money is is is phenomenal and you know people you know don’t do it yourself hire you know I hired Adrien day he runs my gold fund he runs our separately managed Accounts at um Europe Pacific Asset Management so if you want to try to uh you know really hit the Home Run

And go to the Moon you know rather than gamble on on bitcoin I would buy these mining stocks if you want just a safe haven store value uh to you know to preserve wealth well then Bitcoin doesn’t qualify for that real gold does you know so now gold is back below

$2,000 an ounce I think anything below 2,000 is a great buy and there you just want to go to shift gold and buy yourself some gold there uh but so again you know if if you want to store value gold is better than Bitcoin and if you

Want to gamble and you want to try to hit a home run I think the gold mining stocks are better than Bitcoin all right we’re at the end of the episode nobody’s made it this far no nobody made it all the way to the end so you can tell me

You think bitcoin’s going to no do you think bitcoin’s going to 100K that’s what you think isn’t it you keep using that number that’s what you think is you think’s really well that’s the laser that’s the laser beam number right that’s what everybody put the laser beams on their eyes still have your

Laser beams but what do what do you think do you still have laser beams on your eyes no I don’t have them on no I don’t have them on do do you have that’s what everybody was that’s that’s what they were for it was for Bitcoin 100,000

So you’re convinced too you you think it’s gonna hit 100K I don’t think so I mean as I said oh that’s a tell sign when you when you go like this when you when you put your hand on your face after you say something that means that that you’re lying you definitely think

It’s going to 100K oh that’s my tell yeah you definitely think it’s going to 100K don’t you you really think that no I got my I don’t know why my eyes I got something in my eyes and it’s like like dust or something I’m proud of you I’m glad that

You finally are coming around you’re you’re seeing even if you’re not going to buy it you at least see that Bitcoin likely is going to do well in the in the future environment no I don’t think it’s going to do well I mean I don’t think it

Has any value that’s that’s the that’s the problem with it now I I conceded that look investors have surprised me in the past by doing dumb things and and how you know how big a bubble can get before it pops right somebody said you no one ever went broke underestimating the

Intelligence of the American public and it probably appli lies to the American investor too you know uh so um you know but but I I think I’ve overestimated their intelligence for quite some time so uh which is a lot easier to do all right but where can we people to

Find you on the internet it’s easy to find me on the internet yeah you find me at uh you know shiff radio uh and the Peter shiff show that’s my podcast I’m going to be doing my my own podcast later today so people should tune in uh

You know later this evening after the markets have closed I’ll be uh doing a podcast and you can also listen to it on YouTube uh my YouTube channel shift report but um you know if you’re interested in having me manage your money either in Gold stocks or conservative deting paying foreign

Stocks you can visit the website that’s above my shoulder at europa.eu of just Fool’s Gold uh go to shift gold and you know talk to my guys we have real live people uh that are there to talk talk to you uh to help you uh pick out the right coins the right

Bars and and we make sure you don’t overpay and we don’t try to you know bait and switch anybody into these uh semi numismatic collectible type coins we just try to get you as much gold and silver as possible for the money at the lowest possible uh

Cost all right my friend we’ll do it again soon all right Anthony