Long Gold Miners and Silver for the Next Several Quarters says Analyst Michael Oliver

Analyst Michael Oliver believes the recent V-bottom in the gold miners is a near-term bottom. Once gold breaks through $2115/oz on a weekly close “it will launch and leave the earth.” As gold runs over the next several quarters Oliver foresees silver and gold miners outperforming gold on a percentage basis. Michael also believes we are near a bottom in the commodities complex. Also, in Q2 of this year, he anticipates commodities, led by corn, wheat and beans, will begin to run.

Michael Oliver founded Momentum Structural Analysis. He has developed a proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. Michael technically anticipated and caught stock market crash of 1987. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

0:00 Introduction
1:44 Commodity complex upside emergence in Q2
6:10 Corn, wheat and beans to lead commodities bull run in Q2
7:20 Gold, silver, miners
9:25 Gold above $2115 weekly close “will leave the earth” and launch
15:28 Portfolio managers will move into gold miners
17:00 What about all the mistimed gold bull move calls?
22:04 Dr. Copper
23:39 US election year’s effect on market
28:46 Michael’s website & service

https://www.olivermsa.com/

Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39

The content found on MiningStockEducation.com is for informational purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. It is based on opinions, SEC filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and MiningStockEducation.com offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on MiningStockEducation.com or our videos. We may hold equity positions in and/or be compensated by some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. MiningStockEducation.com may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on MiningStockEducation.com is to be used at your own risk. By reading MiningStockEducation.com, you agree to hold MiningStockEducation.com, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred.
#goldprice #goldstocks #silverstocks

You are listening to Mining stock education where you’ll learn from the top leaders in the natural resource sector and uncover quality mining investment opportunities miners on the other hand have continued to bleed in fact a couple weeks ago they they puked you know they they sort of made like a vbottom type

Thing or a potential vbottom which is what we think it is we think that puke out we just saw a week or two ago uh is probably the kind of low you won’t linger around much you you could come out of here in a sharp sharp manner there’s some momentum trigger levels on

The miners fact we ran uh numot and baric couple uh two weeks ago so on a percentage basis if one were to go along gold now or go along silver goong miners I think those who goong silver and miners in the next up turn will make far

More in the the next several quarters than will gold in terms of percentage gain this is MC I’m Bill po thanks for tuning in in today’s show we’re going to be getting an update uh from a gentleman we haven’t spoken to in about a year analyst Michael Oliver of momentum

Structural analysis the website is Oliver msa.com he looks at the markets from a momentum standpoint not just a price standpoint like many technical analysists do in fact I’ll read you something that the Wall Street Journal wrote of his service MSA looks at the market from a somewhat different point

Of view rather than focusing on Price is something that virtually everybody does MSA tracks momentum revealing trends that have been building for a long time and have much more depth to them and staying power that’s from The Wall Street Journal December 25th Christmas Day 2015 Michael welcome back on to the

Program and as those of us that are investing in mining stocks we like to know where the commodity complex is going what’s your breakdown of the momentum you see in the Commodities in general well back in October of 2020 the Bloomberg which Bloomberg commodity index is a very well balanced index by

The way some of them are too heavily weighted the energy but Bloomberg’s pretty well balanced uh you go back and look at 2008 top in Bloomberg it was two I think it was 270 where was up in the 200s then it dropped and then in 2011 when gold

Peaked it was back up to like 170 something and it dropped down under 60 think about that in the year 2020 okay under traded into the 50s something that was 200 plus 100 plus was in the 50s so it was totally decimated it was nuked off the page uh in fact we

We called it theoretical zero and while gold exploded and doubled between 2015 and 20 Bloomberg laid in the mud and it with slightly eeking lower for between 2016 and 20 it then exploded in October we put out a report in October called commodity explosion coming and it blew

From the the we we got bullish at about 70 on the Bloomberg it went up to 140 by early 2022 so it doubled so it said okay I’m alive okay and it was across the board was pretty energy Le but it was also in the grain is sugar you you name

The commodity you could have thrown a dart at it and it went up nicely uh again with energy at the front end on the performance basis um then the war started everybody says oh oil price went up because of the war the food prices went up the grain went

Up because the war you Ukraine couldn’t ship it out all that nonsense they peeed about two weeks after the War Began it’s when commodity PE the war started late February 2022 commodi PE early March 2022 so the the war didn’t cause the upside it was basically an asset

Category that was so underpriced it said I’m out of here in it was an inhale it said I’m I’m alive okay well it’s had a correction we’ve come back down under 100 and by the way all during that time while Commodities exploded gold was plateaued so the correlation between

Commodities and gold isn’t exactly that great when gold doubled Commodities were going down gold leveled off Commodities exploded we think they’re pretty much back in syn again though think when the Commodities turn up here now Gold’s already turned up as far as we’re concerned it’s just playing with some

Price charts up at the 2100 level you get above that they’re going the lid’s going R but Commodities if if you go back a year and a half almost you can see that most Commodities you could draw a line across and see oh they were

Trading there a year and a half ago and yet the fed’s taking credit for quote cailing inflation or subduing inflation in fact Commodities had already collapsed from their 140 price level in Bloomberg down into the like 110 120 level no excuse me down toward 100 almost before he even started raising

Rates so it’s anyway they’ve leveled off and they built what we think is a momentum base so we think it’s only an issue now and I’m going to guess based on the momentum structures probably in the second quarter meaning what six seven weeks from now you’re going to see

Some upside emergence in the Commodities again I think it’s going to be led This Time by grains wheat corn and beans um I can’t explain why I’m just looking at the momentum structures and they look riper now than does for example crude oil now admittedly natural gas has been beat off

The page recently so it could have a nice percent rebound but going back to $10 natural gas is something you put off off to the side for now Michael if I could interject on that point when you see this setup like on a probability basis in your career is it like 90%

Certain no it’s almost 100% certain the only issue is when and at what price level do you trigger the momentum structure by momentum structure what we mean is simple it’s the same thing price guys do with a price chart they draw downtrend lines they draw horizontal lines they draw floors under the market

So if you break through these things they they consider it to be technically bullish technically bearish well we look at price and sometimes prices will be somewhat in sync with momentum but more often than not prices lagged to momentum so if you’re going to make a bottom and turn up usually

Momentum will turn up before you see the evidence on the price chart so you get a clear heads up you month or two maybe sometimes uh and um right now what I see looks like it won’t take much of an upside or in corn wheat and beans for example as

Of next quarter to start to trigger some bullish structural levels on momentum again if you looked at the momentum charge of the grains they came down hard and then they’d been sort of in a tunnel coming down still but momentum’s gone flat it’s built like a ceiling very

Clear if it were a price chart you’d say oh boy you go through that you’re going okay well that’s what momentum set up and I think it’s going to trigger it and I think it’s probably going to trigger it in the second quarter and price at

That point will then get the message and you’ll start to hear headlines for whatever reason that suddenly oh Corn’s looking wheat’s looking good so I think that’s probably where the best place is going to be within the commodity complex excluding the monetary metals of course does gold have to lead that move or

Could that without I think it already has I mean consider that that Commodities they hit 140 2022 okay Bloomberg it’s now trading under 100 where’s gold at or higher than it was in 2021 2022 okay so it’s it’s doing well gold is is it doesn’t have to lead him

It’s already up there ready to go silver has behaved more like Commodities although it’s in correlation to Gold while gold went sideways silver had this arm wrestling like a tubal decline it bottomed in August of 202 2 silver did down around I think it was $17 or something gold was,

1613 from that low both medals exploded percent wise gold went up well over 2,000 again silver went from 17 something to almost 27 or 26 at least a huge percent move and since then we’ve gone into a range again but well off that low well off that low I think

Silver is trying to emerge now ahead of gold out of this recent pullback that we’ve had over the last let’s say three months especially there’s been an R wrestling pullback especially noticeable in miners where Silver’s gone back down into a range from roughly 22 something to 26 something actually about 22 I’m

Looking at monthly closes have been in about a two $220 range for quite a few months now miners on the other hand have continued to bleed in fact a couple weeks ago they they puked you know they they sort of made like a V bottom type

Thing or a potential B bottom which is what we think it is we think that puke out we just saw a week or two ago uh is probably the kind of low you won’t linger around much you you could come out of here in a sharp sharp manner

There’s some momentum trigger levels on the miners fact we ran uh lumat and baric couple uh two weeks ago do you mean the gold miners more so Mike Michael yeah I’m thinking what what our view is is that the next move up in gold which gold is postured below the

Starting Gate and its Starting Gate basically is the 2100 level I you get above 2100 again you’re gone okay they’ve been fighting at the upper 2000s for the last couple months do you need a monthly close above 21 no no just I’m just getting up there uh in fact we’ve

Got if you close a week outter 2 2115 we’ve got a uh a 100 we momentum oscillator which is like a two-year average OS has a ceiling you would not believe was it’s far clearer than what you on gold uh when you you get up to about 2115 or a weekly close you’re

Going to leave the Earth gold will launch it’ll it’ll go from uh congestive Behavior to Vertical but I think in that time you’re going to see silver vastly outpaced gold and you’ll see the miners come up out of this hole and repic themselves you know back

Up toward the highs of the last couple years pretty rapidly so on a percentage basis if one were to go along gold now or go along silver go along miners I think those who goong silver and miners in the next upt will make far more in the the next several quarters than will

Gold in terms of percentage gain the gold of course is the mama Market but the other markets sometimes will take a lead and I I think we’re at that point now we might see over the next week or two gold inching up whereas the miners go up much sharper percentage in silver

Is already it went from under 22 to above 23 in 3 days last week okay like I’m not going to die I’m back okay uh and I think that was that like a 4% rally four to 5% rally whereas gold only inched up a percent off at slow so that’s the kind of

Dynamics we think we’re facing here and you think about a two-year move on gold you as you I don’t you know it could be I think that the events out there this time are different you’ve got to look back at the prior bull markets in Gold they were

Basically eight-fold moves you go back to the mid 1970s gold was 30 something dollar you know fixed price Unleashed it went up to 200 then ultimately 850 by 1980 so in nine or about seven or eight nine years it it went from the mid-30s to 850 okay you do the math it was

Enormous but a lot of that move occurred literally in the last several quarters of the move was the the bull market was sort of arduous arm wrestling but nice nice upside and suddenly it just Unleashed and that was when if you go back and look for example on a chart of

Gold go back to Early N uh 1979 look where gold was look where it was in early 1980 look at the percent go back and look at a silver chart early 1979 to 1980 it was like you know it beat gold like quadrupled it in terms of

Percent gain so it’s at those points of Dynamics in the trend in Gold not the arduous arm wrestling process but when gold starts to go vertical which we think it’s about to that’s when the minors and silver go ballistic it’s as if investors out there who’ve been denying and denying and not

Participating in it suddenly say I gotta be in okay now I think we’re also seeing evidence of that in fact we put out the report last week was quite funny uh it was like Wednesday last week I think was we prepared numont and baric used the US

Bar shamble GLD we ran some momentum charts saying this is probably the low but the trigger level’s here it was only like a buck or two above where each of them were and the next day we heard the news uh you know the dren Miller had

Dumped some tech stocks and gone in big time in newon Barrack we did not know that but obviously he was sensing something that we saw in the charts what if that happened to more and more asset managers who’ve neglected that sector and we think there’s also a good invoce

Correlation to watch right now between the stock market and gold look what the stock market’s done since December when the FED minutes came out it’s partied yeah Tech Leed but a lot of lot of Market lot of sectors within the market also went up not to new Highs but had a

Nice move fairly dynamic in fact and S and nzc managed to actually nudge out their 2022 price High by single percentages but it was Dynamic look what happened to gold since December look what happened to t-bonds since December they went down down in price in t-bonds up in yield

Down in Gold you know went from above 2100 down toward but we traded 1990 something know last week now back to 2030 they went down while stocks went up now you know stock most gold investors like oh if the stock market goes down Gold’s going no that correlation is

Minuscule correlation you go back in history you don’t even think it’ll go halfway down the drop and then shoot back up like 20 I think directly almost directly weekly inversely correlated now now sometimes on hourlies for example last week we had a Fed report or a market report that would impact the FED

Supposedly it spooked the stock market and spooked gold on the same day that can happen but in terms of week to week month to month we think they’re inverse now and if you stand back and look since December to the present you’ll see in t bonds and gold it’s been a downward

Process and S&P and NASDAQ it’s been an upward process therefore we’re watching the S&P and NASDAQ for downturn particularly NASDAQ 100 because that’s where all the leadership is positioned in the front end of that index we thank when they snap we could see evidence of that this week by the way initial

Evidence we put out specific numbers in our reports we bet you could throw a dart at gold at that point it’ll it’ll be turning up as well inverse to S&P and nasda now this gets back to the issue of the miners a lot of portfolio managers have

In the past been in miners usually the larger name miners they don’t you can’t fiddle with the little Juniors might get sued by your investors you know so what happens if more dren Millers out there suddenly see why I should be in gold or the gold miners what’s the reason the reason

Being one the stock market is not sustainable and the fed’s going to have to ultimately Panic no matter how tough they try to act they’re going to have to panic we’ve got too many problems out there like the commercial real estate market which is a disaster bubble

Waiting to happen a lot of people are aware of that but people are ignoring it too if that starts to unfold we know what they got to do they got to go to monetary excess again and that’s that’s the underpinnings of gold okay and what if large asset managers charted this

Little tiny sector called gold silver Miners and start to move you know a couple billion dollars over to it here and there wow it’s like a wet bar of soap and so that would explain why the technicals are set up now in the minor is such that with this Vortex low we

Just made a week or so ago we started to come up out of it whyatt could explode one it’s sold out two it’s vastly cheap historically relative to gold and Rel of stock market and two suddenly other asset managers want to own it that’s the dynamic I I think that’s pending Michael

Um I was talking to a sophisticated investor recently and he told me about one of his high net worth friends who follows you closely and invests according to a lot of your guidance and so you’re Respect by many on the flip side of that there’s people that say I

Get this on YouTube all the time you talk about gold going to the moon or I think you said leaving the Earth and they’re like man you guys have been saying that forever you got you guys are without shame for those people that take that critique and they’re they’re been

Things that we’ve put out there to where we said we thought it would have happened by now what do you say to the people that are kind of skeptical because they point out well you said that should have occurred already unfortunately a lot of these people came

In late we got bullish on gold at $1,140 in February 2016 based on a massive annual momentum base breakout to the upside gold from 1100 and something to 1350 in R&B says I’m alive okay the bull market started bu markets and gold sometimes last a decade we’re now in the

8th nth year okay starting into the ninth year Well 16 17 18 1921 okay Etc began at early 16 gold only doubled but in those prior bow markets like from the 2000 to 2011 for example gold went from $255 to 19920 much of that occurring in the last

Year uh silver also went back to 50 again much to that occurring in the last year uh so we think that this holding pattern we’ve seen is not a lot of people thought it was like the 2011 Peak where gold made a peak dropped and then went

Into a range for about a year or so and then collapsed this time we went up but we kept coming back up to the high that should have happened gold L Toops with multiple Peaks at the same level it peaks with isolated highs kept coming back kept coming back yes it’s been

Restrained but if you were a long-term investor in gold we’ve had several inry points the first one in 16 we had one in late 2018 as it came up through about uh hit 1300 again zoomed we had a break in that March 2020 break the covid nonsense just above 1,400 we said okay

Buy more but since then it’s not been a good time to buy so a lot of people who bought High especially the miners bought high they didn’t buy early in 20 20 near those lows they bought in the summer of 2020 and they’ve been baked for three years you know they lost

Half their money almost um that’s what miners do but gold hasn’t pulled back if you’re a long-term quote long-term gold investor you’re sitting there saying well you know I’m I’m stalled but I’m not breaking down I’m a 2030 gold you know hanging in here so I

Think it’s to some extent where did they get positioned that yes admittedly the range has been wider than we thought it would be but I still argue that gold will likely resolve in a way that is very dramatic percentage wise one of our metrics in our weekend report we just

Showed was that 100 we momentum chart of gold and we did a you could when you look at the momentum chart it’s a massive head and shoulder bottom when you look at gold you don’t see that just see this range but on momentum it’s like a threeyear

Wide neck learnning and if you take the DI mens of the momentum base and swing it up it suggests you could take the first thrust up to 2550 to 2600 that quickly now you know that’s not that big of a deal it’s 30% rally in Gold but for

Silver you’d probably double or triple well for the miners that would be huge from a margin perspective even if they just went back to their highs is a double and I could easily see that happening so I think it’s an issue for investors to recognize where did I enter was it optimal

Uh and that’s that’s a big issue and yes gold has been stalled for a long time up here but it keeps it keeps coming back to the same level in fact to a higher level now we’re living mostly above the 2020 2022 highs so um I think that’s an issue but

I think the timing of it is getting very close now and again I think it’s probably going to be inverse almost week but week to the stock market so watch the stock market there’s some levels this week on the stock market you cannot have for example this week the nasda

Nasda 100 which is 17700 area right now you better not see 174 17300 on the NASDAQ 100 we’ve got some metrics we break a trend Trend structure going back to a year or so major momentum you don’t see it on the price chart but momentum says you cannot stall if you stall

You’re going to break down and I think at that point that’s when you’re going to see gold start to move again and hence the silver and the minor start to go Vortex what is Dr copper speaking to you Dr copper is fit with the Bloomberg commodity index it has structures above

To trigger they’re not all that far above in terms of price levels we publish those monthly and sometimes we update even more often as to what number on price will break through a momentum structure to Signal upside resumption um and and it those adjust down generally every month especially

Every quarter and so I think copper will fully participate in the next up leg in Commodities but it’s more correlated to the Bloomberg than it is to gold in terms of what it’s doing in price uh and I think it’ll be a full participant no question about it it looks looks like

Pending Dynamics there but uh I don’t think it’s going to be correlated directly to when gold engages it maybe a month later uh but I think in general if the next up leg in Gold will be possibly lagged a bit but generally reflected in the commodity complex much

Like for example back in the late 70s a gold made a low in 76 summer 76 uh gone from 200 to 103 okay 75 to 76 it turned up and it wasn’t until mid 77 that the crb index then started to wake up and join gold but it did fully

Join gold in those final years of the stagflation period world was in a recession depression yet Commodities exploded along with gold um I think this time Commodities will be generally correlated to Gold Michael you wrote your Master’s thesis if I recall correctly on a political perspective what what’s your commentary that’s one

Thing the markets might not be factoring in we’re in an election year here in the states as we conclude uh what what is your commentary about what’s going on in the world and how it affects markets well that Master St is not that that

Might book is out there you can see it I published it in 2013 but wrote it in 70 1972 I knew Murray rothbart at the time uh he was the the intellectual founder of what we call the modern libertarian movement now he passed away in 1996 or 93 um and

U i labeled the thesis anarcho capitalism I didn’t think anybody else had used that word at that point I found out a year later that he rothbart had actually written a paper and used that phrase in the paper but I was second to use that phas and now we have a

President in Argentina who declares he’s what not a Libertarian not free market anarcho capitalist I found that quite interesting uh anyway I think what’s being neglected by investors especially in the stock market is they they look at all these data points and you know this that and the other nonsense stuff as far

As I’m concerned try to interpret the mysticism of the FED they’re not looking at politics politics is normally an orderly process in the US it has been all pretty much during my lifetime you know where all the Democrats went they control maintain power for a couple

Terms and the Republicans do it and so forth and so on they alternate but there’s no real chaos in the the process it’s ordinary it’s copacetic uh and they yeah they compete with each other and they use loud words but that’s about it it’s not going to be

That way this time and I’m not going to take sides I’m just looking as an outside Observer University of Virginia Department of politics put out a paper I think it was in October or August after they pulled many Democrats and many Republicans and asked them some surgical type questions that

Sometimes overlapped their intent to try to find out something and one of the questions was uh you know to the Democrats if if the Republicans win uh and same to the Republicans if the other side wins uh is that justifying anything and yeah violence look like 30% on both

Sides said violence if the other side wins this time not that are mad violence okay then this a similar term came up in the questionnaire about the same percentage ratio on both sides the other side win secession you know you haven’t heard that since you were in high school you

Know studying American history okay that term is now coming back uh in fact in Texas there’s a movement now the Texas secessionist movement which I understand is gaining in popul and I think there’s something on the ballot this this fall uh the next election ballot about the

The question of secession so this term has been used and so don’t be shocked whichever side wins the other side’s not going to like it uh we know if the if Trump loses there’s talk of secession there’s already States talking about creating their own currencies gold back currencies Arizona is talking about of

Texas Alaska just legalized silver and gold is leg tender okay in effect that’s a secession away from the US dollar if more than more of this happens the Federal Reserve in effect is having in the ground cut out from under it so people start using Bitcoin or start

Using gold and silver equivalents and not using dollars then their power over the money unit diminishes and diminishes so it’s almost a revolution on that side of the monetary issue but there’s also the political issue and I think no matter which side wins you’re going to see stuff like he didn’t

Imagine now turn to the sort of the left side of the spectrum CNN CNBC Trump is called Almost repeatedly a dictator or authoritarian it’s common term to apply to him uh they fully accept the notion if he’s elected we have an author we ended democracy okay well if you believe

That and you’ve never been in the streets before but you believe that Trump is Hitler and he gets elected what do you do you you sit back and say well I’ll wait for four years and vote in the next election are you so mad because he Hitler Hitler right and that’s how he’s

Been defined what do you do do you do something unusual I wouldn’t be surprised in other words we’re sitting at a point now where no matter which side wins it’s not going to be copasetic and yet that is not a discussion in the markets about what does it mean for

Various markets so what’s the edge gold you land gold and farmland yeah especially Farmland not not not city land not skyscrapers you can buy those for a million bucks now I understand there’s one for sale in St Louis that used to be the largest skyscraper in the city

That’s now for sale but nobody wants it for a couple million bucks whoa Farmland yeah Farmland your website’s Oliver msa.com I mentioned a little bit about your website at the beginning but Michael as we sign off uh remind listeners what they can find there please well we cover all four

Asset categories uh in our 360 report uh that’s the bond markets stock markets including Global markets Commodities emphasis gold and foreign exchange uh so you get a full vist of you know what are these icebergs doing bumping into each other and so forth uh and I think that’s

An important way to see the markets so you know go on the site and request some samples we’d happy to send it excellent well really a great check uh check it in with you again and we’ll talk to you soon again thank you Bill oh