Bitcoin is about to Enter a Dangerous Period (here’s why and what to expect)

Bitcoin is about to enter a dangerous period (here’s why and what to expect). Most people are ignoring 3 key charts of bitcoin relating to seasonality in March, fear and greed and a technical throw-over. What could they mean for bitcoin as we head into the month of March? What does bitcoin seasonality and sentiment imply about the crypto? We look at the charts. #bitcoin #btc #alessiorastani

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H do L hope you’re well in this video I’m going to take a quick look at the chart of Bitcoin especially after we’ve now broken Above This Channel trend line that you see there uh on the chart so beautiful breakout as you can see there above the trend line and also in this

Video with this particular chart of fear and greed index is saying to us about Bitcoin plus also in this video I’m talk about Bitcoin seasonality so the seasonality charts and what this particular data you’re seeing on this chart could be telling us about Bitcoin in the months ahead especially in the

Month of March so I’m going to talk about specific the seasonality in the month of March as we go to the end of February all right guys join me all right guys welcome back now before we begin this video I think it’s worth just pointing out that in the

Context the bigger picture if we just zoom out a little bit on the chart of Bitcoin notice that Bitcoin has managed so far to retrace 61.8% of its prior decline so that’s the prior decline from the highs of 2021 to the lows of 2022 so if we were to do so

That’s the decline that’s the drop there and if we were to do the 61.8% Golden Ratio retracement you can see that we’re just above that uh just above that level by the way that’s the level and Target that I expected Bitcoin would come to last year in 2023 I was calling for

Bitcoin to eventually Reach This level of resistance near 50k or 48,500 approximately there now you will see that Bitcoin has managed now uh as we can see there’s a nice channel on this logarithmic chart of Bitcoin and it’s now broken above the upper part of that channel broken that trend line and

That’s typically called the throwover by the way so in technical terminology this is often called a throwover when price breaks above the upper part of a channel the trend line there and interestingly Bitcoin managed to just recently hit my first Target our first Target at 53k was

Reached just I it was yesterday so there it is I was waiting for this level to get hit at 53k let me play for you what I said on Bitcoin in the member videos as Bitcoin was forming this pattern you’re seeing here so let me play for

You a very short clip of what I said in the member videos back in late January or early February and we’ll come back here’s the bounce the bounce as explained has being made up of five waves 1 two three four five we got a five wve bounce very good so this could

Be a smaller degree wave one of the larger degree way five rally to higher levels so that is at the moment my higher probability scenario for Bitcoin I think the likely bottom is in for Bitcoin given the strong bounce an impulsive Bounce from the support as long as the next pullback stays above

This region I’m looking for this bounce and R to continue to higher levels in the 50k to 53 to 57k levels we had a macd crossover on the daily chart very recently and that when it occurs from below zero that’s typically a very bullish sign uh for the market actually

Any Market but Bitcoin or indeed the stock markets all right guys welcome back so as you heard in the member videos when Bitcoin bounced off the support level at the 100 EMA and then formed this impulsive rally so and by the way we did this also with a macd

Crossover you may recall my video back in uh it was late January when I actually mentioned this U macd crossover from below zero and I said we should wait for a 3-day time period just to confirm that this is not a false signal all right guys so and we can see it was

Not a false signal we managed to stay above support support was 40K and we rallied nicely as I expected again because this initial move because this initial bounce was impulsive a five wve bounce that increased the probability we’re likely bottoming here and with the help of the macd increasing the

Likelihood of a move to our next Target at 53k which we reached by the way very recently but by the I want to mention that when I use the word bottom I don’t necessarily mean that Bitcoin has bottomed forever you know for the long term no it’s possible POS that at some

Point this year maybe by the end of this year or next year perhaps Bitcoin will come back and uh retest that low so when I use these words like bottom or top I don’t necessarily mean that it’s forever for the long term we’re always using these words in the context of a certain

Time period now what is interesting is as Bitcoin hit that level at 53k Bitcoin has managed to get rejected from that first level and by the way notice that macd appears to be almost about to cross over again so we had a bullish crossover here from below zero there it is that

Happened back in late late January but now it looks like that macd could be potentially about to cross over in the negative direction we shall see but that’s an interesting uh situation there but let me also now point this out so some people said that uh Bitcoin has not

Reached Euphoria stage I find that very strange for example when I published my recent video on the stock market about how we reached overwhelming levels of greed some people were saying to me well that has not happened on bitcoin that is not true at all you will see that

According to this data from alternative.me I took the screenshot yesterday and we can see that even though we reached levels of greed last week we were in levels of extreme greed okay so we have I think in my view reached a reasonable level of euphoria

Uh extreme greed as you can see here on this chart but also if we look at this data courtesy of Jason Gard of sentiment Trader this also shows again crypto fear and greed index and we can see that that is also the case on this chart notice that Bitcoin recently reached levels of

Greed not seen you can see just near that 80 level okay just near that 80 level on the fear and greed index high levels of greed and we can see the last time these levels of greed were reached were really back in the later part of

2021 as you can see there as Bitcoin was forming um this kind of topping pattern uh right there so you can see this month we reached levels of greed in sentiment not seen since 2021 and same thing happened uh I believe yeah in the Autumn of 2021 after that it had a pullback

Okay now by the way I’m not trying to say from this chart just because we’ve reached high levels of greed that Bitcoin is going to crash like this okay so that’s not what I’m saying at all but what I’m saying is that sentiment readings are showing we’re reaching high

Levels of greed and over optimism over bullishness where perhaps we could see some kind of a pullback or maybe temporary weakness in the chart and that’s why we’re going to take a look at this chart over here of seasonality Bitcoin seasonality now let me just say this that seasonality is just one factor

That we look at in analysis it is not the only Factor we should look at all right guys but it’s an important factor because it can give us some ideas of what may happen to bitcoin or indeed the price in different months or periods of the year so even though it’s an

Important factor it is not the only thing we rely on in our analysis we also must combine technical analysis okay the charts this seasonality chart gives us an idea of what happens to the price of Bitcoin what has happened to the price of Bitcoin in the past and we can see we

We’re tracking different uh years the black line by the way is tracking where we’re at right now so the black line happens to be the current year okay and these different colored lines are previous years okay so really what I’m looking for is I want to see what the

Kind of General trend is in the month of March or specifically towards the end of February going into March okay so I’m looking this time window as you can see this is February and that’s March okay and I want to see what generally seems to happen towards the end of February as

We go into March this kind of time window here and we can see that generally the trend over the last several years has been down or weak in other words as we head towards the end of February going into March there seems to be a period of weakness in the price

Now of course that’s by no means a guarantee it’s going to happen this time round but it’s a factor we need to look at so General Trend as we head towards the February end of February and into March is negative and actually this chart shows it even better so this chart

Is courtesy of stockcharts.com and again we can see in The Last 5 Years so I’m going to track first The Last 5 Years here going back to 2020 and we the average average actually this this chart does not show a big drop in the month of March that’s February this is March not

A big drop so what I’m going to do I’m going to go back a few further five years let’s go back a bit okay okay there it is that’s better so I’m now tracking the period from 2018 to 2022 and we can see from February to March

The seasonal pattern shows a drop in the price uh from 80 to 60 as we can see here so there seems to be a period of weakness shown to us in within this average of this period uh from February to March and actually as a matter of

Fact let me show you some more of this let’s go back a bit more so okay we can see a more pronounced drop from February to March and in fact let’s go to the month yeah so this is the period from 2016 to 2020 and you can see a much more

Pronounced drop here within this period again so statistically the past performance of Bitcoin within this time window from the February month to the March month it’s a big drop you can see here so significant drops in that time window and in fact let me just drag it

Back a bit more let’s go back a bit more okay there it is so this is from 2014 to 2018 and we can see even a bigger drop in that time window that period so this seasonal window shows from yeah big drop here all the way down to negative in

That time window so generally from this chart we can see a general seasonal pattern of weakness from February to March now of course this does not mean that this pattern of weakness has to repeat itself uh this year all right guys so maybe this year could be

Different again one of the factors we look at is seasonality and the reason why it’s important is because it can give us some Clues it is another bow in your arrow if you want to call it that from which we can analyze the charts so

I think in a nutshell and I want to conclude this video Simply by saying this that we can see Bitcoin has managed to take out that upper trend line as we can see there off this channel now as I mentioned before this what’s called a throwover and typically throwovers

Especially as we hit resistance and especially when we get seasonal patterns and again high levels of greed they can become often very unstable and usually result in Failure we shall have to wait and see whether Bitcoin succeeds so the big question right now is is Bitcoin

Going to be able to stay above this trend line support this uh upper trend line support that you see there because if it cannot and if it fails to stay above this trend line and if the throwover gets confirmed then it may produce some weakness now some of you

Been asking me well what about the stock market because in my recent video my last video I talked about the stock market and how we could see a pullback in the stock market in the next several weeks as we head into March and some of you are asking me well could the

Weakness in the stock market translate to weakness in Bitcoin I think that’s quite probable because Bitcoin and the stock market often move in tandem often they’re highly correlated so yeah I think should we see some kind of weakness in the stock market in the next several weeks which I think is quite

Likely as we head into month of March that as we’ve seen from the seasonal patterns just looked at in this video from this chart and also this important chart and how there’s a pattern of weakness from February to March and also the fear and greed index that we looked

At here as well then I think the OD are increasing for some kind of a short-term temporary weakness as we head into the month of March now I’m not saying that’s going to happen immediately we shall have to wait and see if Bitcoin can hold

On to this trend line support or not at the moment is hugging as you can see as I’m making this video is hugging that trend line support quite nicely so at the present moment as I’m making this video bulls have some degree of control all right guys and we may potentially

Push a bit higher to the next Target and we’ll talk about the Targets in the next member video but the bottom line is that the key question we have to ask is is Bitcoin going to be able to hold on to this support at this trend line and near

50k the psychological support my personal gut feeling is that as we’re heading into the end of February or into March we’re probably going to see that seasonal pattern of weakness come into play so I think weakness some kind of a decline or pullback I think some kind of

Pullback is actually quite probable and very likely as we head into the month of March again from the period of the end of February to the March period so that is what I’m expecting some kind of pullback to the averages or some Q support levels uh as we head into the

Month of March doesn’t have to happen immediately but we could see that in the next few weeks all right guys make sure you go ahead and watch the next members video on Sunday because we’re going into much more detail about Bitcoin stock markets and Gold Plus also the likely

Wave counts on bitcoin and the stock markets as well as the next potential Targets on these charts as well all right guys if this video has helped please give it a like And subscribe I look forward to see in the next video update bye for now