Bitcoin: They’re WRONG About The ETF! (believing this will keep you poor!)

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Video Description:
Data-filled update on real estate cycle, stock market performance for 2024, bitcoin investor pump and the crypto bull market cycle timing. Altcoin season update, Bitcoin price prediction update, Stock markets hitting new all-time high prices and what this means for investors.

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➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews

Those who don’t read the news are uninformed and those that do read the news are misinformed there is a lot of lies that go around in the media for cryptocurrencies for the stock markets for real estate for recessions today’s video I want to unpack these with you

Because these massive and I mean massive massive lies and misinformation are keeping everyone poor now we’re going to cover Bitcoin we are covering ethereum as it continues to rise we have cryptocurrencies to look at the stock markets continue to grind away understanding how and why this is

Happening with our data and of course the big one the real estate cycle we are seeing recessions across the board yet markets keep going up how the hell does this happen let’s explain it here on the channel it’s your home of macro cycle analysis covering Bitcoin cryptocurrencies the stock markets and

Of course real estate a holistic view of the investment landscape so you can get an informed understanding of how these markets are work working all right guys I hope You’ hit that like And subscribe button thank you once again to all of your comments coming through I’ve got a

Few of these to cover in today’s video as I see them come up very very often let’s kick it off with the misunderstanding of recession UK tips into recession in a Blow to their prime minister GDP fell by. 3% in 3 months to December after collapse in retail etc

Etc so the UK economy fell into recession what is recession recession as we’ve heard of it before has been a contraction in two quarters some will say a negative GDP for two quarters others in this case here is said if you get a contraction in the GDP so gross

Domestic product for two quarters that’s a recession but it’s pretty lame to think that your economy can’t at least contract for a period of time which would essentially just be the same as a market going up and then taking a breather either so I think in this case

What the US has done to redefine a recession makes sense because just a a contraction is ridiculous UK GDP declined for two consecutive quarters in the second half of 2023 therefore technically a recession but what has happened in the market it reminds me of what happened in Germany last year

Germany is also likely in a recession at the moment uh we saw it last year as well here is the article again from the guardian Germany on track for 2year recession okay so what happened in these markets you tell me alltime high prices now if I had an editor editing these

Videos I would tell them to go back and check those videos so you can see that video pop up of me explaining even if these markets go into a recession it’s likely they’re going to go into new all-time highs because of where we are in the real estate cycle so this is all

Part of the game also for BTC and cryptocurrencies because if we’re seeing an overall uptrend and we are in the late stages of this 18year cycle well then we’re going to see a lot of a lot more money getting thrown into the markets and more risk on so I’ve I’ve

Covered this many many times before somewhere around here 2023 2024 before we head up into this winter curse we might even be at the start of the winners curse phase and that is defined by this last stage of the market which we’re expecting sometime to Peak around

2026 there’s no dead point for the peak like you would see on a stock market remember this is real estate and the economic cycle and no one rings a bell at the top and says the tops in guys get out because the markets are collapsing it happens over a longer period of time

In this case four years you’ll see it slowly at first and then very quickly the same sort of thing at the bottom after you get this collapse down then it sort of grinds around and starts to work its way out that’s for the real estate and the economic cycle as opposed to the

Stock markets where you can clearly see tops and bottoms get formed in the market because you’re trading on a chart here so to cover up to wrap up on the recession the stuff that keeps everyone poor they’re all waiting for these sorts of recession calls Germany was in a

Recession it’s at new all-time highs the UK Market it is 4% away from a new all-time high unless you just put in a new all-time high in February of last year so 12 months ago it hit a new all-time high and now it’s grinding around alltime high prices but what

You’re seeing from the majority of the market is they’re waiting on the sidelines to to enter on a collapse and we haven’t seen a collapse since the co bottom and all we’ve seen from that point is high lows and high lows continue to form so I

Think this is part of how this last stage of the bubble plays out we get this huge pump to the upside because well everyone has been waiting on the sidelines at least for part of their portfolio because they’re expecting hoping for a a crash a correction and it

Just doesn’t come and we’re seeing that grind up also on the S&P 500 which I want to cover with you guys in just a moment even the UK home price index is up let’s have a look at it here JB hp1 it has been rising since September I

Know a lot of folks in the UK are saying how is this possible in my area it is down I’m following the charts here which give you a broad view of the overall increases it’s been it’s been going up for several months now getting back very close to the previous old all-time highs

On this index so we’re looking broadly here and looking at the markets probably more like your London’s Manchester the biggest cities in the UK home prices continue to climb in the US as well it’s not great for us trying to get into the markets trying to buy a property because

Of course it gets harder and harder the prices are going up faster than what we can actually save for but unfortunately this is just that stage of the cycle the markets continue to increase but what comes after this would be that collapse so not reading the news keeps you

Uninformed and reading the news keeps you miss misinformed I think the same thing happens when we look at the US dollar and how much it has inflated as opposed to devalued it has actually gone up 6% against the rest of the world currencies looking at the dxy this

Period compared to 2020 it’s up 6% yes devalued it has gone down in inflation but you’re just losing out against the holding power of the US dollar so you have two options your options that are Hold Us dollars and continue to lose purchasing power or you buy assets that

You think are going to increase so that you can maintain your purchasing power and eventually sell those assets for a profit so if you’re sort of sitting on the sideline waiting for this Market to collapse because it’s only going up because of inflation well essentially you’re just losing out to

Inflation and you’ve got two options wait on the sidelines and watch everything go or you get into assets as we look at assets here of course we look at things like BTC and if you want to get a little bit more degenerate then we get into the altcoins so these ideas

About US dollar Dev valuing recessions coming through that are going to collapse the markets and what we’ve seen recently as I put in the videos of late is a reverse crash God help us the markets continue to go up so I’ve got a couple of pieces here this one is a

Month old the thing I like about this is that we can now see what has happened since that reading or since that signal occurred so looking at the breadth of the market here we’re looking at all country breadth percentage above their 200 day averages so you got your 200 day

Average line how many of these countries are above that line so I showed you at least for now I’ve showed you the UK was at near all-time highs Germany is hitting new alltime highs India at new all-time highs it’s a big Emerging Market out there Japan nearly at

All-time highs maybe it’s hit it today Australia all-time highs you know it’s the third 13th largest in the world of course the us all their markets are at all-time highs so we’re getting a very very big breath here of a lot of countries above their 200 day moving

Average now in terms of the short term when this has signaled which it signaled on the 16th of January a week later was a negative 2 weeks later 1% increase 1 month later median return was basically flat the average return was about 7 so it didn’t really have a good record over

The course of one week to one month there wasn’t really enough here to say that this is a reliable signal to say the markets were going to continue up but 3 six and 12 months later it’s almost almost a guarantee I hate to use that word but you can see from the

Statistics here that 90% of the time 89 to 94% of the time over these three periods the market has been higher now I want to bring us back to this one month period because this is now uh months and a few days old you can see that the average return

Was7 if we take a look at the S&P 500 this was where the signal occurred on the 16th of January this is where we currently are today uh at a roughly point Sorry 4.8 but if we look at a month in which was 30 days at 5.2% you’re roughly an 8X return 7x

Return on the gains that were anticipated back in this report a s but what actually happened was a 5.2% return So within a month of that signal the market got 5% now this is the traditional markets they are showing a lot of strength on top of that strength

We’re looking at the stair stepping effect here as it to to break to the upside and pause break and pause and we’re seeing that rotation through different sectors within the S&P 500 which leads me to this article uh just a day ago looking at the material sectors and essentially some of the defense

Sectors so what’s happening is it seems like corporate insiders or essentially the smart money here are rotating between sectors and this is potentially or could potentially explain the grind you get a pump up and then a grind so if they’re rotating through sectors as their portfolios increase going from

Growth sectors then rotating into defensive sectors to hold onto those profits and then back again into growth once they see the the growth sectors bottom bottom out and then back into defensive you get the idea here you go through enough rotations over a period

Of time and then a push up to the upside rotation again push to the upside rotation again maybe we see a push to the upside and the reason I talk about another push to the upside we’re just looking at the corrections here and the idea that we’ve presented over the the

Last several weeks when it comes to the corrections now that we’ve pushed pretty heavily into a new all-time high is that we we’re likely to see single digigit Corrections so we’re at about 2.5% correction so far if we got back to the old all-time high it’s roughly about 5%

Correction and then 50% from this top to the current low which was the October low for that range is about a 9% so there’s still single- digit Corrections all the way down to the the 50% level and if we do see a a greater correction

I would say that we’ll go on this grind again it just take a little bit more time and then we go in this stair stepping effect all the way to the upside like you could see back in 2020 and 2021 just as one example we’ve gone through many many years before where

It’s the same sort of thing significant correction grinds up another correction grinds up another little correction and then just this long long grind which sucks everyone into the market so it’s Bitcoin on this similar path it seems like we’ve gone through that since September now there is one analyst that

I want to point a very very heavy finger at here who was saying this time is different to call this time is different is absolutely uncalled for and you should go to their website go to their YouTube and tell them this precisely now I found the culprit here it is none

Other than Michael poso calling this bull market will be different I’ve left a link to his channel in the video description go over there and tell him what you think of someone saying that this time is going to be different and don’t go easy on him just because he is

My brother now of course he didn’t say those words it’s an article you see how news Works let’s move on bitcoin looking like we’ve got a potential flag forming at these levels here so I’ve just got the flags up for you guys the penants in

An uptrend bullish you got a a bull flag which basically Falls you got lower highs lower lows and then eventually breaks out to the upside looks like we could potentially be more like a pennant flag here but essentially we’ve got no indication of whether Bitcoin wants to

Go up or down because we have been grinding now since the 14th since Valentine’s Day and we’re now into our eighth day of this grind around 50 to $53,000 what I am looking at are the corrections to the downside anything abnormal I would probably reject at this

Point based on the strength that the market is showing we’re at a 4 and a half% correction probably one of the most smallest correction that bitcoin’s ever done to the downside to the 50% level of just the range now to the upside from the breakout in February about 10% to the tops at

$445,000 about 15% to this next level here at about 43 half which cuts through the middle of where you could see the support and resistance forming of the previous move about 18% and then all the way back to the 50% level should that top at 53,000 hold gives us about a

26% correction so that would still put us in a bullish stance a healthy correction if you will and we can see from the previous Corrections uh each of these occasions had been quite fearful our crypto SEC drama uh there was a binance event through this period we obviously had the banking crisis Market

Could barely do 22% so I think most people are pretty aware of that 20% correction so I’ve still got something here that could go a little further one around those sort of worst case scenarios back near the previous Zone that the market was grinding out of but

As I’ve put in previous videos I think 32k is basically off the card so if you’re waiting on anything around the 40% type correction I don’t think this is going to be the place that that plays out that’s a short term for Bitcoin over to the longer term here we’re looking at

The monthly chart up for 5 months I’ve got it on candles here to see that nice fat bar playing out 5 months up we’ve got about 8 days left in this month and then of course the next month of March to get us through into the of the

Quarter now I’ve got our Ford returns table here it’s a new feature of the Tia indicator Suite which will be launched very soon so jump on to our free crypto and economic report if you want to be notified when that is getting released this thing helps us identify the trends

In the market I love to use the six months and the 12 month forward returns to understand any sort of movement over this coming 6 to 12 months and what the likelihood is of Bitcoin putting in a positive 6 months negative 6 months or or for the 12 months as well but we’re

Just looking at the the monthly here February it’s been a pretty well green month for its history if we take out the bearish years you’ve got 2018 2022 it doesn’t really make much difference because they were both Green in those bearish years as well there’s also 2014 which was a pretty decent

Bearish year we have 11 data points with those three removed nine of them were wins two of them were losses about an 82% chance that February remains green 2023 was pretty well flat but nonetheless it’s still up there with a pretty high percentage hit rate of

Giving us a a green month March however is only 5050 using these same metrics which isn’t such a great return there which could also play into a possible negative or flattish quarter remember we still have a month and8 days to go anything can happen to BTC in these

Times especially as we uh are grinding out here so there was another piece I wanted to add to this when it came to ETFs just looking at the the misinformation the misunderstandings and when it comes to the ETFs all I’m seeing in the comments from a lot of folks and

Not just on my videos but everywhere is that people believe the ETF is here to stay and always pump the price now we’re seeing a lot of comments suggesting that this time is different unprecedented catalysts and they think this time is different now because of the spot ETFs

As I’ve pointed out before it seems crazy to think that many believe these markets cannot correct but if you get a small change in what’s going on right now we know from the spot ETFs ETF companies are basically buying up 10x worth of bitcoin every single day if

That changes to half that amount that is going to send shock waves I guarantee you that will make news headlines which will probably be perceived as bearish even though they’re still buying more than it’s out there on the market which could then flip the price down from

Where we currently are it’s just a thought and I want to keep those always floating around because the amount of certainty around how this time is different actually scares me a little bit so although the price of Bitcoin can keep going up from this point as I pointed out looking at the possibility

Of a flag here and we could grind higher I’m always keeping an open mind to the possibility of a correction which is why the swing chart helps a lot it just helps follow the trend without all the emotion of or listening to the misinformed news and the headlines of

This time is different the ETFs are here to stay and they’re pushing up prices and it’s just going to go on and on and on it might not be that way forever now Theory might not be down forever either down against its BTC value it’s still attempting to close higher from this

Double bottom back in June so it’s a more macro double bottom looking at June 2022 to the low here in January of 20124 so basically like an 18mon double bottom on the daily chart you can see we have been rising just yesterday we had a a

Red day but still higher high and a higher low in terms of the number of days now with higher highs and higher lows we go all the way up to yesterday which was nine straight days So eventually we do need to get a pullback in this sort of trend it is above the

50% level and as you can see from the dotted lines this is essentially a rough Target of where I want the eth BTC price to hit by this time so there is my price Target there is my time Target I want to see it close above around 6 million

Satoshi by here’s my date here by about midm March at I’d probably say around the latest based on what we’ve seen in the past looking at the weekly moves to the upside so all I’m doing here is going back and measuring the weekly moves that eth has run from some of

These low points there’s five weeks onto the next one take it from this low to the top you got three weeks taking it from where that low triggered that little double bottom here to the top you got six weeks from the next move at this low on the breakout you’ve got about

Seven weeks and then each of these moves in between are roughly about 3 to four weeks so you could look at where we sit now measuring from this current bottom that’s about two weeks up so if we went two weeks that’s it there all the way

Over to about 5 weeks that’s about March 18th the week beginning take it out to seven weeks that’ll take you to roughly around early April which leads us into the harving which happening around mid April I think if that occurs and mounts another attack at the 6.8 million

Satoshi level that would be confirmation that the eth BTC bottom is in a break above that 50% level 6.8 providing this low remains intact that would be confirmation that the if BTC low is in and that strength will build AC uh build in ethereum you’ll get better gains from

Ethereum across the rest of this bull market with however much is left speaking of better gains than BTC we’ve got soul Tia and Pendle to have a look at Soul pumped reaching its peak on Christmas day of last year and we’ve been following this just looking at the

Failure or the breakdown against its BTC value it’s hit that level just yesterday it’s back to the low here roughly two 200,000 Satoshi I suspect as I’ve mentioned if it breaks this level that’s the failure there and we’re going back to test somewhere around the 180,000

Satoshi level so what you be looking for is a bottoming pattern for forming and then breaking back to the upside hopefully breaking breaking back above the previous swing bottoms here that the bottom is in and that you’re starting to see more strength come back into Salen against BTC which would then provide you

With better gains better returns against its USD value so that’s where you start to see those big skyrocketing moves to the upside every time the price goes ballistic that’s the sort of thing you want to see against its BTC value but as you see this the USD value is basically

Holding flat or slowly trending up or down basically Bally holding flat because well in this case Bitcoin has been rocketing up and then it’s basically been pausing as well which leads me to Tia this your Celestia it has been on a downtrend it got back close to the top which basically puts in

Your lower swing top which is a weak pattern many days in a row so several days in a row here to the downside tiny little swing back up to test the underside so support becoming resistance rejected again to the downside so how do you use this well you look for the

Reverse you look for a bottoming pattern look for an area of support coming in and I’m telling you this in advance so that you can keep track of it as opposed to I guess what many want to hear is they just want to hear when it’s going

Up I would rather know and prepare in advance for something that I could get into as opposed to just hearing these things when they’re only going up towards the end of the peak so keeping an eye on this setting my alerts roughly around the 50% level a nice round number here about

280,000 Satoshi and see what we get from that point same sort of deal with Pendle it’s been coming down and if it’s not able to hold the level here at roughly 4700 Satoshi well then guess what you’re probably going to expect a breakdown that’s how important these 50% levels

Are so keep an eye on that there’s probably some uh fresh ground to run down to 4200 then to the next low at 3,800 if it goes any lower you’re probably looking somewhere around 32 3,300 Satoshi so we’re going to keep watching that as well so keep an eye on

The channel or join us at Tia premium to learn how to trade and invest cryptos the stock markets and of course real estate as well link is in the top of the video description like And subscribe I’ll see you guys back here at the next video and don’t forget to go give

Michael a hard time on his channel he’s got some fantastic videos that he has just posted as well see you the next one cheers