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Video Description:
Data-filled update on real estate cycle, stock market performance for 2024, bitcoin investor pump and the crypto bull market cycle timing. Altcoin season update, Bitcoin price prediction update, Stock markets hitting new all-time high prices and what this means for investors.

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โžข Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews

These markets are blowing up faster than I had anticipated I was looking forward to 2024 being relatively bumpy until we get to the end of the year around elections but we are seeing things absolutely blow up this everything bubble is spreading worldwide it’s only a matter of time until it hits BTC

Ethereum and the altcoins again after we’ve already seen them pump up a couple 100% in the case of Bitcoin and eth but this time we’ve seen one of the biggest new all-time highs in history one of the biggest this is even bigger than the Great Depression from 1929 into the

1950s for the US Japan hit a new all-time high 34e high on their stock market now I hear you at the other end there are so many questions this is getting absolutely crazy in terms of what’s going on in the market compared to the economy and what you’re seeing

Day to day what I see day to day homeless people around I would want to say almost everywhere but it is getting a little bit crazy out there especially with the cost of living now we have to remember what we trade here we are at your home of macrocycle analysis we

Trade the markets we’re not trading the economy we’re trading the markets and they continue to go up as this bubble blows up the consequences from this bubble I suspect will be a major major collapse I don’t think it’s coming yet I think there’s still a little more time

As we have covered many times before with our 18.6 year cycle which has over 200 years of History backing it up from the US and around 300 years of history from the UK so there is a lot going on here in these markets is even the S&P

Hit a new Fresh high now I’ve got a lot to get through I’m very very excited plenty of charts data the facts to have a look at today like And subscribe if you are new here on your channel as I said this is your home of macro cycle analysis covering Bitcoin cryptos and

Something that I don’t see many other people do if any the real estate market and of course the stock markets as well not saying that no one does it but this is where we are we’re here at your H macrocycle analysis links in the top of the video description join our premium

Community trading shortterm setting up their long-term plans as well for their long-term Freedom link is in the top of the video description all right guys let’s H it off with the headlines and then we get into the charts Japan’s Nick crosses 39,000 points essentially it’s a new all-time high after 34 years yes

They’ve done printing yes they’ve done everything they can to get the economy going it’s essentially what’s been going on around the world the main thing I continue to focus on is how are you trading these markets how are you making money from it even if the economy is not

Looking good as a comment here from the UK I don’t live in the UK that’s true things are terrible shops are closing but someone else is seeing the opposite the same or very similar things are going on all around the world you let me know in the comments section I’ve heard

It from the UK definitely see it in the US it happens here in Australia Canada you name it things aren’t looking as good in the economy but the markets are going up so this is part of the symptom of the collapse to come so as we move on

To the real estate cycle the big move to the upside it seems like we’re basically basically at the beginning of that and and in some cases had started in 2023 with those lows out of of the market for the S&P 500 we had our October low we

Had our October 2022 low we had the lows for the real estate markets as well here is your ETF your home builders ETF in the US which continues up and I also saw a comment some other people shorting this Market I suspect the shorters are going to get their limbs ripped the F

Off themselves by trying to Short mega mega bull market bubbles that time will come it it’s almost aen to the time that Michael bur was trying to short the market if you remember the big movie The Big Short from the uh 2008 crash you had the markets coming down but he was

Trying to short the market all the way up in this move to the upside it’s very fortunate for him that he was using other people’s money and so he was able to stay in the game and last until this collapse comes most of us aren’t that fortunate where we’re using other

People’s money to keep throwing more and more money in as you’re trying to short this Market to the upside eventually most are going to get squeezed out which typically is part of that symptom for that blowoff move to the upside but the thing is these moves can last a lot

Longer which is why we have the quote that we refer back to irrational markets they can stay rational longer than we can remain solvent and eventually you’ll be right you’ll get that collapse but it doesn’t seem like it’s time yet as we just start to get into these new fresh

Highs starting from around December of 2023 new all-time highs for many markets and of course for Japan just today hitting a new Fresh all-time high so that’s the news on Japan huge huge news 34 years and in terms of the longest one for the US you had the Dow Jones here

Going back to the Great Depression this is on a annual chart one year these each bar is one year there is your peak in 1929 25 years until it got into a new Fresh alltime High going through the Great Depression now you can see how the economy and how people were living

Completely different looking at the markets themselves you had a mega collapse here very very quickly it was impoverished times World War II and the market still reached a new Fresh all-time high in 25 years but you look over at Japan I I would argue that they haven’t lived in the same conditions as

What happened in the US and around the world in the 1930s it has hasn’t been anywhere near as bad but their stock market has been down and only just hit a new all time high after 34 years so you can start to see how things are different you’re better off trading the

Charts if you’re trying to make money as opposed to trying to trade uh shops closing down in the street and people living in tents if you could short that as it’s a bad thing for the economy go right ahead you’d be very very rich but unfortunately what I suspect you’re here

Doing is trying to trade the markets so that’s Japan I’ve also mentioned here on Twitter alltime highs S&P 500 hit a new alltime high the nasdaq’s very very close again Dow Jones I’ve got more to get onto that with the S&P as we talked about in yesterday’s video the market

Grinding higher with a bit of that rotation going on between growth stocks and defensive sectors and then you see this Market pump up just talked about that in yesterday’s video before we got that all-time high Germany again yesterday in a technical recession hitting new all-time highs France new

All-time highs Australia in the midst of another new alltime high just hit one recently in the last few weeks India new alltime high some of the biggest economies in the world are hitting alltime highs and yes things that are going on in the streets are different so

Onto the stock markets and of course then cryptos Bitcoin ethereum hitting fresh highs again against its Bitcoin value we’re looking at the stock market here lots and lots of green all over the shop and of course the big one is NVIDIA hitting another fresh all-time high brings itself up to the fourth largest

Company by market cap in the world just behind Microsoft Apple and Saudi aramco to anyone out there including myself this does not look sustainable but again we got to remember we’re in a macro bull market we’re in a bubble which is a symptom of a collapse so these can go on

Longer again to remember can the markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent and those folks who have tried to continue shorting this Market on the way up are basically getting their asses handed to them and I suspect as part of the move to the upside many

Of of us might be familiar with a short squeeze so you’ve got people trying to short the market be that hero to say that I sold the top and then they get absolutely blown out of the water their their accounts would be decimated trying to short this because of the market

Being closed and then on the earnings report you can see it jump up here and open that’s what this side is here on the left open at a new all-time high and so that gap between where the market closed and where it opened was roughly 11 % so depending on where their stops

Were placed to hopefully prevent major losses the majority of say shorter term Traders if they in fact short-term Traders would be destroyed on an open like that so we’ve looked at a lot of charts now let’s look at something to do with charts and the economy Real gross domestic income another misinterpreted

Economic indicator so a great one here by sentiment Trader yet again so the Real gross domestic income you can see the chart here is going up but it is a lagging indicator uh the main thing that we want to pull from this is that we’re looking at the 12-month percentage rate

Of change is going down and typically what you’ll see on social media which we’re all a part of here is that people will copy and paste this particular chart and then tell you that the market is collapsing everything is going down because Real gross domestic income is

Going down now when you take a look at the data going back through history all the way back to the uh late 1940s it’s not necessarily the case that the market has to collapse from this point and you definitely get a recession even though what they’ve done what

You’ll see say on X or on YouTube just trying to clear up the misinformation out there is that when this Market does go down into that negative territory you almost always get a recession but it’s about the timing and we’ve talked about this for years and years on the channel

Now we’re looking at the bottoms here in June of 2022 October 2022 Looking Back Now you can go back on the videos on the channel as I said if I have an editor I’ll tell you tell them to go and put this into the video but nonetheless this

Is what it is here we’re looking at these being uh the bottoms out of the co low looking for a market rise from that point now everyone’s talking about the economy crashing but we’re talking about the timing of things the timing of when this should happen and we’re looking at

This being the timing here roughly the peak around there and then the roll over it doesn’t just peak in 2026 and then collapse like that it could but we’re not saying that that’s what has to happen we’re looking for some sort of signs that the Market’s getting weaker

And then starts to roll over like what’s happened in the past you see a peak and then another test of the top maybe it grinds around quick drop to the downside comes back tests the underside of the previous support which then becomes resistance and then as the fear

Increases this could be 6 months 12 months time of how long this is taken to play out then you start to get the accelerated move to the downside so it’s it’s about timing uh in these markets when you’re seeing these tops come in and then of course using those

Indicators to identify when the uh the breakdown points are as I’ve also shown you guys when it came to Solana as an example in the previous altcoin bull market and subsequent bare market so onto the data here hitting that like button uh we’re looking at the data from this particular Real gross domestic

Income so not to bore you with too many numbers looking at the amount of signals that have popped up uh the time where you can see a red is when the signal came up 12 months later there was a negative negative reading on the stock market now you can see from the

Particular data it’s been positive more often than red and there have been very significant periods in this case 2002 2008 that were R after this indicator came through and so what a lot of them do is they just refer back to 2002 and 2008 when they post this particular type

Of data this economic data here saying that it happened in 2008 it happened in 2002 it’s going to happen again this year they forget that 2009 it didn’t happen the market was recovering 20120 the market recovered very very quickly and this time around it seems like it

Might be on the way up again before we do get a collapse uh as we’ve been looking at from the 18.6 year cycle so I can get through this again in a future video but I think we talked about that long enough to understand that sometimes there is misinformation out there

Surrounding economic data in this case looking at real G Real gross domestic income the S&P 500 new fresh all-time high up roughly 6% from the previous old alltime high so that’s how far it’s gone above the old alltime high we’re about 23% higher than the October low this was

A very very fearful uh part of the market as it collapsed from July I mean it was a healthy correction down from July into that October low it’s been about 120 days or 79 trading days to this peak so far and as we said in yesterday’s video the corrections may

Only be short-lived as we grind up in this bull market while many are still trying to short the living hell out of the market and it keeps going up they just keep getting exited from their positions or they keep trying to add to the position which then causes even more

Upside pressure when they get stopped out so basically like a big short squeeze that could take long long time we’ve seen that through of the Cycles so I think now isn’t the time to be getting fearful about the markets in alltime high territory with a recession just

Around the corner as we’ve covered many times before the UK and Germany have seen recessions in the last couple of years technical recessions that is yet the markets have hit new fresh all-time highs so that’s the S&P 500 continuing to grind up after those small rotations

Here a few percent and then pushing to Fresh prices again the NASDAQ similar sort of thing here 4% correction it’s a couple of points away now from another all-time high the Dow Jones also pressed to a new Fresh alltime high it’s up 6% from its old all-time high and I suspect

This is going to continue to fuel the fire of this everything bubble for BTC for eth for the altcoins you’re seeing a lot more uh risk coming into these markets as they continue to grind higher with shallower and shallower retracements now the home builders ETF

As I I showed ear in the video is up 16% essentially we’re looking at uh home builders or a lot of home builders in this case with the ETF in the US and is the market showing positive signs they’re still expecting more profits to come we’ll be waiting to see when this

Rolls over or starts to show some signs of getting a little bit weaker but for now things are still up and I suspect people who are shorting this Market as well are going to get wrecked I mean it’s just part of the game here trying

To short a bull mark Market is a very risky game to play you might get a few little wins along the way but the macro overall trend is up and as I say the trend is your friend until it bends at the end I hope you like that one the

Japan market up 34-year high and just to quickly cover the the Dex so this is in Germany new all-time high look at that blow up to another fresh alltime high it’s roughly 5% up from its previous old alltime high fr up 4% from its previous old alltime high

Back in April of 2023 just broke through its macro one of I would say macro 50% levels looking at this entire range projected from the recent low in October getting through that level and suspect we probably going to go somewhere around that 8,700 is points and on to India our

Big Emerging Market again fresh all-time highs just pipped it by couple of points there so we’re still hitting Fresh Tops at that point and quick one for the Aussies here xjo is pushing again it’s in fresh High territory not a new all-time high yet but it was a new

Alltime high if we look back to uh 2022 at these Peaks here so to pull ourselves away from the everything bubble going on in traditional markets in real estate let’s dive into Bitcoin eth and some of these cryptos which are all bubbling up so I’ve got something

Big to talk about when it comes to these old coins as well looking at their market caps going from 1 to 100 and then to the very small micro caps we can drop it all the way back to 1,000 here so let’s kick it off with BTC it’s a

Percent down nothing much has been going on the last eight days we have just been grinding at these prices but I want to mention a quick post here from my good friend Eric Crown looking at this particular cycle Bitcoin at its closest level to closest to its alltime prior

All-time highs preh harving than ever before by a decent margin essentially the price of where Bitcoin is going back to the all-time high is roughly about 29% and in previous Cycles it has been a lot further away from its all-time high does that mean we’re going to have a

Bigger cycle this time potentially we don’t know I don’t know I’m not trying to say that I do know what I think and what I’ve said before is I don’t think we’ll get the same sort of repeat in that Bitcoin cycle where we saw Bitcoin

Go from 3K to roughly 70k so over a 20 or 20 2x if that was to happen Bitcoin would have to hit roughly $342,000 in this cycle but could it go close could we get the 100 the 150k this time I mean at this pace at this speed

Sure but there will be Corrections along the way what we’ probably want to see if this gets to an all-time high sooner than in previous Cycles is at least for it to chill out above that high and consolidate like what’s happened with the stock markets as well now the reason

For that is we have had some pretty significant moves to the upside from October at 25k now at 51 so basically just over 100% move in that period but not to forget this entire period if you go back to 2023 jumping into this range of 25 to 32k we were there from March

Until breaking out in October so about a 7mon reaccumulation level above the previous accumulation bottom we were looking at the lows here for June suspecting that that the price wasn’t going to go much further as you can review from the videos back in 2022 it

Go a little bit further down to 15 half at the time I mean you get told that you’re an absolute idiot you missed the bottom that’s you know the Bottom’s coming at 10K but really the difference between 17 and a half and 15 a half doesn’t really matter right now everyone

Wishes they would have got more back at these prices underneath 20K so we did have quite a period of time here June until March roughly nine months of accumulation and then about seven months of reaccumulation so I guess having a nice big move to the upside after these accumulation levels is warranted after

Those um yeah after those reaccumulation levels of course but to keep going we’ll probably need some other reaccumulation even the previous cycle after it boomed for several months very significant pullback and then this was two months of it just grinding and grinding and obviously the uh buyers investors were

Buying up here roughly 29 to 30ish th000 we had one final pump to the upside before everything came crumbling down so just to be real with you there is no signal yet for BTC if you had to pick a side for a longer move you’d have to say to the upside

Because well the trend is up on the weekly chart we haven’t seen any sort of significant breakdown of key levels the key levels for a significant breakdown would be past the 50% level now that’s at about 38 $39,000 so the market would have to go below that on the macro sense

We also need to see breakdowns underneath the previous levels of support and resistance going back into the 40,000 region so for now Market has been grinding around let’s move on to ethereum which has been climbing and climbing and climbing 10 days up now against the Bitcoin value and I’ve heard

Some of your comments saying that you don’t know about Satoshi values Satoshi values are basically just a denomination of bitcoin’s value so if ethereum is $3,000 and Bitcoin was $330,000 then ethereum would be 1110th meaning it would be 0.1 in this case ethereum is roughly 0.06 so it’s roughly 6% of bitcoin’s

Value that’s as simple as I guess I can explain it right now but we look at the Satoshi value to give us an understanding of this the relative strength of the altcoin or if you don’t consider ethereum and altcoin ethereum against bitcoin’s value and is it in a

More stronger position than Bitcoin is in and right now it seems to be because it’s going up against bitcoin’s value which is is showing up on the USD chart as well it’s had a very significant rise up about 98% since the bottom in October so nice big strong move up here to you

Know 29 73,000 the good news for eth is that it’s holding above the 50% level and this is the bare Market 50% level going from the top at 49 to the bottom at $880 holding out above this line is a good sign that hopefully we’re consolidating at higher prices or at

Least for ethereum etherum holders who have packed their bags entirely and the idea from here is that consolidation happens another stair stepping stone is placed and then we start to test higher prices up around 35 to $3600 so here’s a little hot tip on altcoins we’re just looking at the

Bubbles here the greens and the Reds I want to keep it really nice and simple just looking at the risk in trading the top 100 versus the bottom 100 that’s that’s recorded here so the 900 to 1,000 market cap altcoins I’ve got it on the

Month here but we can change it to the year in a moment the main thing I want to look at here are the returns that are possible in the top 100 you can see here you’re getting numbers at least in this month that we’ve seen prices go up and

Of course there’s always changes we’ve got couple 100% is being some of the bigger stuff here render a nice little 100% there ax 180 wild 276 let’s drop it down to the bottom 100 so down near the th000 900 to 1,000 you’ve got numbers like 100% 100% 200% it’s pretty similar

But you got a lot more Reds so a lot more risk but you’re not getting the same return you want to get better and bigger return you got bigger declines as well 75% just in the month now let’s have a look at the 100 to 200 you starting to see slightly bigger returns

Here 200% a few more 200% really and then if we move over to 2 to 300% we’ve got to see some that are a lot bigger 700 200 so there are a couple more that are bigger here now the top 300 to 400 lots of greens bubbling all over the

Place again still around the 100 and 200 but you’ve got a few more going on here so what I’m saying is I think the risk reward starts to wear out the lower down you go there’s usually like a sweet spot there and you may have found your own

Sweet Spot it’s going to be different for everyone just depending on what you choose to look at but essentially the further down you go the bigger pumps and dumps there’s not necessarily going to be the bigger uh upside potential cuz you can see here we’re down at 800 to

900 and they’re still getting the same sort of returns that the top 100 to 200 were getting and so I think taking that extra risk might not be for everyone and if you are looking for those altcoins that are going to give you those explosive gains then maybe stick with a

Plan that is going to be suitable to you are you used to using centralized exchanges or decentralized exchanges are you able to get onto these airdrops quicker are you able to get onto the idos quicker can you can you do all these sorts of things or do you not have

The time to do that and you prefer to stick with altcoins that are on centralized exchanges or you have a little bit going on with decentralized exchanges or wallets that you can trade with because there are still opportunities in the top 200 100 I know

Many want to go for the stuff that is way down on the list getting you the micro caps but there’s not always that uh reward there and you’ve got a lot more risk because you got a lot more crap down at those lower uh lower market

Caps so maybe you got to throw out 10 different orders to maybe pick up one or two as opposed to the top maybe you know 100 200 you don’t always get the the big big pumps but more of them are going to move to the upside than what you’ll see

Lower down on those market caps now there’s always a flip side to that I’ve got 100 to 200 Top alt coins here we’re on an annual review here as well so it’s just about the time frame as well you can see here you got massive returns NOS

22 1,000% Pendle 1600% let’s go down to the bottom 100 1800% 200% 200% I mean they probably moved up from that point as well so we go to 5 to 600 you can see 1,200 the big ones that that are now potentially in that 1 to 20000 area of

The market caps may have come from those lower ones so if that’s the case then it’s about holding on so I’ve given you a couple of ideas there it’s not always that simple of just tell us what it is and it’s going to go up because you got

A lot more risk at the bottom end and then it’s about how long can you hold for and how big of a draw down can you take until the market goes back up in your favor so a lot of these could be up hundreds of a percent crash 80% then

Start to work their way higher again and give you that big nice 20,000% return so there’s a lot more that goes on behind the scenes and I know it seems so easy online which just get these altcoins go get your 35x returns but there is a more

That goes on behind the scenes hopefully that’s at least help you start to set up that plan if you want to understand more there’s always Tia premium there’s a link in the top of the video description for that but of course there’s always a lot of learning to do and you can always

Start for free on YouTube as well thanks again guys hit that like button subscribe to the channel if you haven’t already and I’ll see you at the next video Until then take care and peace out

41 Comments

  1. The money is still out there, just less people have it and people have less moneyโ€ฆ
    Essentially more poor people, so the economy is sufferingโ€ฆ

    The rich and richer are still playing in the market

  2. Speaking of โ€œhomeless pplโ€ idk if itโ€™s the same in other countries, but the USA ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ doesnโ€™t have a homeless crises, we have a DRUG ADDICTION crises that everyone wants to label as a homeless epidemic. Many of our so called homeless ppl, have a home they could go back to, but that requires them to sober up. Theyโ€™re CHOOSING to stay on the streets so they can continue to use. Itโ€™s a CHOICE!!!!

  3. Thanks for video Jason. You're the goat analyst imo.

    Can you cover "future cycle tops for total crypto market and even include BTC".
    If you don't mind, help us novice seek an estimated future date "exit" based on previous cycle tops.

    That would be most epic, thank youโค

  4. It's not really a bubble. It's the fact that there was so much money printed in the world that everything feels expensive, but it's not because the money is 40% more worthless. All this money is just going into places and it looks like everything is going up but nothing is actually going up. The money is just less valuable

  5. I caution everyone – please don't focus on speculation, focus on the charts. I got royally screwed listening to the 'Bitcoin is going to 100k' narrative last cycle. My fault completely – not blaming anyone but myself for listening. I made some very bad decisions as a result. I am not making the mistake again. So please – focus on the charts!

  6. Jason, your analysis has been great to ingest for the past year. Its provided great insight. You have stressed the incoming bubble for some time now and it sounds like according to your analysis we have till circa 2026. What is the hedge at that point? USD, BTC, GOLD, Data miners, TSLA, OIL or something else?

  7. No jobs but plenty of $$$. Man, the prices of goods are going to skyrocket. This is a sign that the real economy has become uninvestible due to government interference (Elon and Trump are visible examples but its rampant) so money is piling into sterile paper where nobody can get offended and sue you. Anyone trying to actually build something is harassed and torn up. Plenty of money for the killing industries though. This country is due for a major reckoning I feel.

  8. 90 years since the last implosion. The Grand Cycle. We'll go from hyperinflation, banks imploding, deflation, nobody will have cash because electronic money will be vaporized when the banks go under. Who uses actual cash anymore? I do! ๐Ÿ˜…

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