Where Are Gold, Oil, and AUD/USD prices headed? (Technical analysis)

Where Are Gold, Oil, and AUD/USD prices headed? (Technical analysis)

hello everyone I’m Carlo and welcome
back to seamly markets Trend tracker
Series today I’ll be analyzing gold
allil prices and the Aussie dollar so
let’s get straight into the charts first
off we have the gold price this is the
daily chart here in front of us and uh
two key reasons for gold being uh higher
throughout 2024 have been one
geopolitical tensions throughout the
Middle East and two Central Bank demand
focus on Central Bank buying why has
that been the case well obviously
central banks globally manage their
reserves traditionally in a whole range
of currencies the Japanese Yen has been
extremely weak over the last two years
and gold has picked up the slack so
we’ve seen an increase uh amongst
numerous central banks globally into
gold uh so in addition here you can see
the very strong uptrend uh throughout
2024 as I mentioned
uh ge political tensions in the Middle
East uh have been very sensitive uh for
gold Traders uh most recently Iran
downplayed Israel’s drone strikes in
what appeared to be a move aimed at
averting Regional
escalation so that’s why we’ve seen a
drop of a few percent in Gold back to
that 20day EMA which has been very good
support since uh early March as you can
see on the chart so a little bit of a
pull back there however the tensions in
the Middle East are still there and that
is why the gold price remains very
elevated throughout 2024 technically as
I mentioned gold prices pulled back to
that support line in yellow the 20-day
EMA the uptrend does remain in place and
that’s supported by 20 above the 50 EMA
but it is losing momentum the stastics
oscillator down below has turned South
therefore where to from here well you’ve
got support initially at
2,313 us an ounce and then
2,220 on the daily chart and lastly 2150
they’ll be acting as decent supports
going forward in terms of resistance and
where to from here well it’ll depend on
escalation or deescalation in the Middle
East but that most recent high of
2,431 is your uh immediate uh upside
Target as we move ahead in Gold next
let’s take a look at oil prices and here
you can see about a daily chart on the
WTI now the WTI has pulled back from
recent highs around $87 us a barrel
after Iran most recently said that they
will not escalate conflict with Israel
now it is clear when trading oil that
all prices remain sensitive to an
escalation or deescalation of tensions
in the Middle East now the Middle East
situation if it de-escalates further
further and markets most likely will
shift their focus back to supply and
demand fundamentals for example this
week we’ve got um another measure of US
inflation the fed’s preferred measure
which is US core pce price index uh
technically on the daily chart the
mention here price that pull back to
that key support line in blue the 50 day
EMA which has held prices
since middle of February on the chart uh
and in particular last four trading
sessions where the oil pric has come off
it bounc off that line uh numerous times
so that continues to support the
underlying Trend which is up you can see
there clearly 20 EMA by the 50 EMA uh
however momentum has clearly dissipated
with a stastics oscillator falling from
an overboard position a few weeks ago to
now into oversold territory uh in 2
weeks so as I mentioned that signals a
loss of momentum and a potential into
the uptrend so for Traders uh going
forward just be aware of support at 8170
50 EMA if that does crack you’ve got
that $79 umll a barrel Mark which uh
potentially can be a target for shorts
on the upside uh around that 876 60 Mark
that we saw in early April their recent
highs so they’re the kind of uh levels
or range that uh West Texas crude oil
may stay within over the next few weeks
and finally we have the Australian
dollar chart now I’ve thrown in the
Aussie us chart here because it was a US
dollar move last week uh there’s a few
things going on U most importantly
markets Traders investors are now
repricing uh potential fed Reserves rate
Cuts this year uh to more of a scenario
of rates are staying high for longer and
the possibility of rate cuts are being
delayed uh and that was uh further
supported by comments from Federal
Reserve uh gouby gby said progress on US
inflation has stalled also said makees
sense to wait and get more clarity
before moving on rates so the US dollar
really gained last week on those
comments as well as safe haven demand uh
following Iran’s missile and drone
strikes on Israel and subsequent Israeli
retaliation uh so uh very much US dollar
story now this week we do have tomorrow
we’ve got Australian CPI data which is
key and later this week uh us uh
inflation data uh through the measure of
core PC price
index uh technically on this daily chart
here you can see the Australian dollar
isn’t a downtrend it broke previous key
support around 6 450 an accelerated
lower last week Jam Trends in place the
20 EMA below the 50 EMA and
diverging keep an eye on the sarcastics
uh they’ moved into uh they were in
oversold territory and they just pop
back higher again there’s a few
headwinds uh coming up in terms of
technical resistance lines the 20 EMA
around 6490 and the 50 EMA around
6525 um should be front of mine for all
Traders uh if the CPI is much lower than
expected tomorrow in Australia then uh
would likely see renewed weakness in the
auss US currency pair with the next
support coming in around
6285 that concludes my analysis for
today’s Trend tracker series I’ll see
you in the next video

This video was recorded on 23/4/2024. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Drawing from more than 25 years of industry expertise, Carlo Pruscino is your seasoned Forex trading mentor. Presently, Carlo offers premium clients his insights on executing trades, and conducting technical and fundamental analyses. Before joining CMC, he lent his talents to esteemed institutions such as CBA and Macquarie, where he advised Global Hedge Funds, Central Banks, and Australian Corporations on FX and Interest Rate hedging strategies.

Welcome to CMC’s Trend Tracker, a video series for traders seeking in-depth technical analysis and valuable charting insights. Join us as we unravel the factors shaping the trajectory of key instruments. In this analysis, we explore key trends and price levels across key instruments. Our focus today extends to the charts of Gold, WTI Crude and AUD/USD.

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Chapters:

0:00 Gold
2:23 Oil
4:43 AUD/USD

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