Bitcoin crash or die out, important 24 hrs ahead for crypto – SP500 bottom?

Bitcoin crash or die out, important 24 hrs ahead for crypto – SP500 bottom?

all right guys we’ve got a big 24 hours
coming up and week ahead of us as we
lead into the end of the month this
could be the first red month that
Bitcoin has seen in eight months big one
coming up monthly updates on the channel
coming up make sure you hit the
Subscribe button and of course like you
guys are crushing likes out there
smashing it to 4,000 as we try to combat
the YouTube algorithm or in essence
really the YouTube audience as they love
to see the old crazy expressions and
ridiculous headings with warnings and
breakings and cryptic candles and watch
this thing right now in 24 hours sort of
stuff you guys are helping get it to
4,000 likes and we’ll keep at the game
of avoiding the nonsense out there huge
feedback about cryptos and the
traditional markets as well so get into
that in today’s video as we look at the
S&P the NASDAQ the Dow Jones bouncing
back and what this means to this stage
of the cycle so plenty to cover here as
Bitcoin breaks
67k don’t go anywhere hit that like
button let’s cover off where we are at
the interest rates nothing much has
changed here I’ll update this in future
videos what we’ve already covered here
if you are just new to the channel thank
you very much is that we weren’t
expecting the interest rates to be cut
every single meeting because asset
prices were skyrocketing you’re not
going to get cuts when asset prices are
skyrocketing if that was to happen it
possibly would Skyrocket the asset
prices even further which means that we
then have to flip and put the interest
rates back to where they were and
potentially increase them as well so
right now we’re about 8 and a half days
away until the next meeting and it seems
like the interest rates are going to be
paused again and again in June and again
in July and so far it is heading towards
another pause in September so we’ll
continue to cover this on the channel
put a post out in J uh January about
this and so far it has been on track
that has led now to the stock market
it’s starting to digest the possibility
of interest rates remaining higher for
longer if you remember that saying from
2022 or 2023 from Jerome pal trying to
keep interest rates where they were
everyone expected them to come down and
they haven’t they just skyrocketed went
to 5 a half% and they’ve stayed there
now it seems like the stock markets are
trying to come to grips with higher
interest rates what we have seen is 7
Days down in a row there is a Green Day
in there but you’ve got lower highs and
lower lows for the S&P 7 Days down you
guys that are trading that know Tia
premium and the Gan signals there would
show that after 7 to 10 days there there
is a high probability chance that you
were about to see a turn in the market
could be temporary it could be
longlasting we have to wait and see but
we did see that yesterday nice Green Day
up for the S&P 500 also for the NASDAQ
you had a green day but it’s essentially
it’s an inside bar Lower highs High
higher lows so not enough of a signal
there for the the NASDAQ but for the Dow
Jones We’ve now seen a big green
reversal higher close here above all of
that previous action and then yesterday
was another up day higher highs higher
lows green bar as well closed higher
than where it opened so positive signs
are starting to come through for the
stock market at least in this case for
the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 the tech
stocks still have a little ways to go it
all seems to be working well with the
seasonality something that we’ve been
covering for many months now thanks to
Almanac Trader just looking at the
seasonality of the year ahead of us with
an election year coming up and if we
were to update this chart here
essentially it would look something like
that we got a top on the 1st of April
remember we were looking for a
correction in the first quarter of 2024
so spare me a day we got to that
correction in on April 1st for the S&P
and to update it we’re somewhere around
the 23rd now of April we’re down 7% so
that would take us roughly here and so
if the channel was to be produced then
the trading channel would be something
like that and that would be similar to
what you’ve seen in the past you can see
you’ve got tops here in the blue line
and the market basically churned
sideways for March April May and then
eventually started to break out in June
so you had that next move on in the year
so potentially we could see things sort
of winding down the sort of die out
phase in the market where it’s things go
quiet so that’s why I’ve got something
in the totle around Bitcoin 30% crash or
dying out and we might see that for
altcoins as well so I want to get to
that uh in this video in summary for the
S&P and for the Dow Jones they are
attempting to put in a low they’ve done
more in time to the downside than any
move previously in this five month run
up and they’ve done more points to the
downside than any of these other
Corrections on the way up so that is
what overbalance in time and price means
just means that there are more sellers
than buyers in the market which would
then suggest that the recovery is going
to take longer than any of these other
previous recoveries do not leave the
markets at these times as I’ll show you
with Bitcoin and cryptos essentially
through these times that’s where the old
DCA occurs markets break out and the
masses run uh they chase their taals as
the market starts to break out trying to
get into everything left right and
Center because they’ve missed the old
boring grinding times the die out stage
where the volumes drop off don’t be part
of the herd don’t be part of the masses
just keep following dayto day and I’ll
do my best to keep these videos succinct
for you guys so this is the Commodities
recap of uh the video that I showed on
the channel about 10 days ago looking at
Gold putting in a top this is the update
here we had the reversal candle on
Friday then the World War III yet again
everyone losing their minds about
another possibility of World War III
Monday came gold ran up and it continued
to climb but we just saw Monday
yesterday huge reversal day and it’s
basically closed at or below some of the
previous lows of the last month so it
doesn’t seem like this Old World War II
narrative was really long lived we had a
few days up from here and then
essentially gold turned down essentially
people look at gold as that safe Haven
if bad things happen in the world it’s
as simple as I can put it hope it’s not
offending too many of the uh of the
Karin out there but we didn’t get the
Old World War III huge hype from the
media which is what they were you know
hoping for or at least explaining to why
things should happen in the markets same
thing happened for oil if you remember
this from the chart on Friday 12th of
April I probably put the video out on
the 13th on the Saturday again that was
that called the top Friday before Iran
Israel conflict Market came down okay so
essentially for us it is a lesson about
the news that’s just a quick update
hopefully that’s helped you guys I saw a
few comments saying you’d rather hear
about understanding how the market works
and news and how this all comes together
as opposed to the the same old BS that a
lot of people talk about and it’s just
fear fear fear and essentially the
market goes the opposite direction to
what they are they’re suggesting so
again those signals played out and we
saw the prices fall from here you would
think that oil would go up when like
gold when you see some International
conflicts of World War III again right
so that moves this on to the S&P 500 a
few bits of data points here for the
possibility of a low and potentially
going into that grinding phase here the
mlen oscillator versus the broader stock
market essentially to keep it nice and
succinct for you as we look at the data
here when this oscillator shows a signal
it’s typically around the lows you can
see here on these red dots and 6 to 12
months later even 2 to 12 months later
you’ve got a pretty good win rate 12
months later has 100% so far on the 1 2
3 4 5 data points that it shows so maybe
we’ll get a loss here who knows right
but that’s a pretty good win rate uh
four out of five times for the 2 to six
month periods that you would see higher
prices in roughly sort of 6 months time
from where we are which would
potentially go in line with the grinding
effect here before you start to climb
out of that so that’s the mlen
oscillator firing off now suggesting
that you’re going to see median returns
of about
19% uh 12 months later and then an
average return of about 25 1.5% 12
months later all we’re saying here is
looking forward to the next 6 to 12
months it seems like the market should
be higher but this next period could be
that period that we see the grinding
effect for the stock markets so that’s
the 18.6 year cycle again if this one is
new to you make sure you subscribe to X
and the channel it seems like we still
are in the winners curse phase which is
this movement here going into the peaks
of roughly 2025
2026 more on that in future videos we’ve
covered that multiple times I want to
get on to BTC now and where we are
sitting here at
$67,000 yesterday’s video this was the
key area that Bitcoin had to close above
so that it could start its attack to
consolidate above the 50% which is 66,6
and those previous tops here at 6 again
669 so essentially that round number of
roughly
$67,000 that is going to be the key area
for Bitcoin now to mount its attack to
69 and then 71 so overall things are
looking well to the upside however what
we have seen is a lowering in the volume
it’s not uncommon to see that if you are
in a trading range so let’s keep that in
mind the thing we need to see uh moving
forward is when it does break through
you start to see an increase in the
volume so that there are more buyers
coming into the market when it does
break out so right now it’s it is a
break but it’s not a very convincing
break similar to what we have back here
so this happened 8th of April we had
that breakout it take it took out the
$725,000 level which was our gotta bar
basically where the late Mass has got in
and then the market tanked from there so
it took out the top of that bar but
closed lower so it closed underneath the
previous swing top here at
71,7 190 right the close there was
71,200 so just a 150 odd bucks lower
than that top which then signaled a
reversal and a test of the underside
lower swing top formed and then you had
another collapse from there so basically
will collapse from 71k to 61k okay so
I’m on the lookout here just because we
had that lower close
668 and the top here was 669 50 60 bucks
difference so just keep in mind there if
we are to see another couple of days
this would be strong closes above that
level the weakness now would be closes
under that level basically closes under
the
$67,000 level that’s going to be an
important one as I said in the intro
throughout the next 24 hours and week
because that would mean we have a close
at the end of next week for the weekly
bar and for the monthly bar okay so that
is the deciding factor here to either I
think
potentially spell that crash or we just
basically die out sideways for the
coming weeks where the market would
consolidate yet again to try and break
back to that high now this is our
leftand right hand translated cycle
chart on top of this we’ve seen within
Cycles monthly turns around March or
April so they put in a top like you can
see back here in 2013 you get a
correction you get a grind out uh price
ranges contract Market bu builds again
puts in that solid basee to then go on
into that last stage of the cycle giving
us our right translated cycle where the
market Peaks at uh roughly sort of two
to three year mark and then would
decline after that point we’ve seen it
many times throughout each cycle where
you do get a roughly you know quarter
one quarter two peak correction
consolidation and then pump yet again
previous cycle there was the June Peak
and the April Peak you had a correction
of a few months after after the April
Peak 2 months actually and then after
the June peak of 2019 you had about 6
months down another 6 months grind
higher low form for a couple of months
and then it took off again previous
cycle you can see from history here same
sort of deal happened you had a peak in
June there was a grind for about four to
five months Market took off etc etc you
know I’ve gone through this multiple
times on the channel now and that was
part of why I was thinking we would see
that turn roughly in in March based on
how many months up we’d been green
months and mon in a swing okay and that
was at a time when everyone was really
really bullish on the market looking for
100ks and you know preh Haring blowoff
to 80 grand or 100 Grand so we just need
to weigh that up in terms of where we
currently sit this would be the best
thing to happen for Bitcoin and
cryptocurrencies because we’d get a base
forming and then we could Skyrocket to
new fresh prices new fresh all-time
highs so it’ll give us a strong
Foundation to build from so hopefully
you’ve you understood that we’ve got
that we can move forward from that point
now let’s go down to the daily chart
here what would that look like just as a
a bit of a a guessing game here we can
use the uh schematic here from the
previous cycle this goes back to
2020 looking at the Haring of May so
right back here that’s just a copy paste
of that well you can see that similar
sort of things have happened before it’s
not really out of the ordinary to see uh
markets continue to Trend in a trading
range everyone gets super excited for a
few percent move to the upside and they
get super scared for a few perent move
to the downside uh I’ve pointed out the
prices already so we’ll keep looking at
the 67k what happens from that point to
me that’s a big Tipping Point for this
whole trading range if we can get above
that to consolidate then test the next
prices other than that there’s not much
that can really be said because there
aren’t any more signals breaking key
support and resistance the 60k at the
bottom the 74k at the top they’re going
to be the key levels moving forward so
in terms of the left and the right
translated cycle essentially determining
whether it’s a weak move to the upside
and then a long drawn out Market or a
longer bull market and then a quicker
bare Market is still uh much hope and
much possibility that we do head into a
right translated cycle it would only be
I think if we just shot up from this
point and went pretty hard then yeah we
would probably be down for quite some
time so the longer this has drawn out
the better it is for the overall cycle
and the better it is for
cryptocurrencies so that brings me to
the altcoin market cap looking at where
we sit here uh trying to test that 520
billion the same sort of analysis
applies to the altcoin market cap as it
did for Bitcoin because of where the
market sits in terms of its 50% level of
this entire range the difference here
well slight difference uh and similarity
to what the altcoin market has done
before to try and figure out is now the
best time to buy should I wait that sort
of thing you can see from the previous
moves it’s done a pretty significant
move down quickly so 1 2 3 4 5 weeks got
to that low here so you can see it’s in
this red arrow and then it was just
grinding around for 2 4 68 8 to n weeks
and then it started to take off I’m not
saying this exact thing is going to
happen again however it might be
something similar we had four weeks
straight down very harsh move to the
bottom and then maybe we just go on a
bit of a grind here for the next month
or two it wouldn’t be out of the
ordinary for the altcoins to do that
especially after such a significant move
to the upside rejected at 50% and
potentially if it does start to fade out
again that would be a fantastic
opportunity to be getting into those
cryptocurrencies but but to get there it
typically has to suck the most amount of
people in who are still in the market
which doesn’t mean it goes to new fresh
highs and then collapses but there could
be still uh a lot of bullishness just in
the you know the backseat drivers here
hoping for bigger prices now that’s
where you get those complacency moves
and then it starts to fade remember this
was a 9 we move so even half of that
even if it’s four weeks four and a half
weeks that still is a lifetime in crypto
this could be this week we head up and
then the following week we start to head
down and so they get excited they get
fearful and that sort of movement
happens again the way you would know
that that is not going to happen it’s
not going to come back down is if it
starts to consolidate above key
resistance levels which would then
become support and right now that major
50% at 580 billion is the key level to
be watching for the old coin market cap
to get above and consolidate for now
these could still be uh little pumps to
the upside nice little alert going on
here for render we’re seeing some strong
altcoins coming through speaking of
which salana hasn’t been too bad keep in
mind what I just talked about here this
little pump up and then potential Fade
Out salana has been reasonably good it
doesn’t mean it’s going to be a failure
if it fades out it just means it needs
more time and I did mention earlier
about the volume profile here so that
could just mean that we’re going to see
a bit of a grind between key support and
resistance levels until that volume
dries up and then you see those higher
volume breakouts what am I talking about
go back to 2023 you can see you had a
big volume breakout and then it just
faded out and the volume dried up then
it started to break out yet again look
at the volume increase it broke out and
it faded out to the downside right here
and put in a higher low and then it
broke out again on higher volume and the
retracements were getting shorter and
shorter until it got into this final
Peak here at 180,000 Satoshi on huge
volume so that’s the sort of profile
that I’ll be looking out for in this
next stage maybe we start to run up here
you’ll see maybe some increased volume
but then it fades out which is
absolutely okay it’s just showing you’ve
got higher lows forming on the macro
scale here so that’s what I’m looking
out for when it comes to altcoins
looking for those stronger alts e
another good example here of alt coins
that are basically lagging where some of
the stronger stuff is however we are
getting towards the end of some of these
moves or potential end based on the
previous cycle you can see eth has
broken down from its support before and
it’s broken down from its USD low
there’s a USD low there’s a support it’s
broken down from that before Bitcoin hit
a new all-time high it’s put in a higher
low at that point and then started to
move so in terms of the timing I’m still
looking towards this uh quarter 2 to see
whether we’re going to get this bottom
form for some of the stronger r coins
which could then set things off for the
second half of
2024 heaps more coming up on the channel
hit that like And subscribe I hope this
has helped you out in the short term for
those altcoins and that potential of a
30% correction on bitcoin it’s really
going to come down to what happens over
this next week do we start to fail at 67
and 69k or do we get consolidation above
$71,000 as for old coins they are still
in their trading range as well against
their Bitcoin values if you start to see
them break down from these lows that
were formed over this quarter 4 of 23
and quarter 1 of 2024 that would
potentially mean that they are going to
be weaker altcoins but if they manage to
hold those levels and just grind out
over the next month three months
something like that then as we as the
market starts to turn again into the
macro bll that could be a signal that
they’re going to be strong and start to
pump first thanks again guys see you at
the next video till then take care and
peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, SP500, bottom signs?
05:30 Gold and Oil crash, calling the tops
07:40 SP500 data, 6 & 12m predictions
08:50 Bitcoin analysis, crash or die
14:50 Altcoin analysis, crash or die

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews