2024 Stock Correction – At What Price Do You Buy – Data is the New Gold

2024 Stock Correction – At What Price Do You Buy – Data is the New Gold

I don’t want to leave you in suspense so
I’m going to tell you up front I want to
buy Nvidia at
691 and 25 cents to be exact and I like
to be exact but then the question comes
how did you come up with that number
Carrie well I want to show you what I do
is spend my time researching stocks and
looking at their past history and their
future projections and try to come up
with numbers the number that I can buy
Nvidia at and the number that I can sell
Nvidia at in in 2020 6 and 2027 so
that’s what I spend my time doing
research rather than watching YouTube
videos so let me take you first of all
to my trading views chart and explain to
you how I came up with that number
$691 125 for my purchase price of Nvidia
because I don’t own it right now okay
here is my chart and what I’m showing
you again is trading views if you want
access to trading views you’ll find a
discount uh in in the description where
you can sign up and I get a paid a
little commission okay what I’ve did was
I went on this chart and I went back to
uh March of 2020 and I traced the the
movement of Nvidia until today and then
I used what is called a Fibonacci
retracement if you go up here and click
on that it gives you the ability to open
Fibonacci retracement and what what it
does is you put a a line here on its low
when you want to start and its low was
at the the trough of the pandemic and
then you put it at its high in history
says that a stock that gets a good runup
will normally get between a 50 and a
78.6% retracement and as you can see
from this movement to this movement it
did in fact retrace and come to here and
as you can say it ended somewhere around
a 70% retracement then it turned around
on uh January of 2023 and had another
runup and the retracement then came and
said it would come down to uh 211 well
it didn’t okay so I then come and I move
it across and I get as we’re moving from
roughly um July of 23 through
um January of 24 we get uh about one two
three more Peaks and then valleys and
then we come to the one that we’re in
right now which was on uh started in
January of 2024 and hit its high in
March of 2024 has started to correct and
is now showing its retracement again the
Fibonacci says that it’s at it will go
to 7 23 or possibly as low as
577 it’s right now at 762 so it’s very
close to the first level this is its
50-day moving average it broke the
50-day so that gives us an indication
it’s probably going to go lower this is
the 200 day and as you can see the 200
day almost perfectly matches up with the
78.6 retrace level so I’ve gathered that
data now what do I do with it I bring it
over here to a spreadsheet and I analyze
it so here is the first movement that
started with the pandemic and as you can
see it had an increase from $50 to 316
or 532 per. this is the Fibonacci uh 50%
this is the F Fibonacci uh
78.6% it actually corrected to 114 so it
had a
64% then as you can see the others did
not have the DraStic movements that uh
they did from the pandemic and we have
Corrections ranging from 3 13 16 and 8
and now we’re involved in the current
correction which as I said started in
January has brought us to date uh it was
an 84% runup and you can see how that uh
equates to some of the others and uh it
has now started its correction what I
then did was said what’s the average of
these and the average turns out to be a
21% correction so I said okay what is
the
21% on the
875 and it’s
$691 125 and that’s how I came up with
that number now how do I substantiate
that I even want to get into Nvidia well
I do research I look at the history
other history of Nvidia and try to come
to some conclusions the first thing I’ve
learned that very that the way you
determine what a future stock price is
going to be is find out how successful
they are at making money okay so the
first thing I track is their earnings
per share and I go back to 2009 and come
all the way up to their projections in
2006 and then you as you can see they
had started with a negative earnings per
share they kind of they became
profitable in 2011 and and moved forward
as we go here we see an actual jump of
uh
137% 89% and here you can see Nvidia is
starting to wake up or should I say the
world is starting to wake up to Nvidia
had a a dip in the pandemic but then
came on strong now these are the real
important numbers that you need need to
be aware of Nvidia basically told us
they were going to increase their
earnings from
$33.30 34 to
$12.96 that’s a
288 per increase in earnings then they
came into and and the price of the stock
which is right here reflected that we
saw the price of the stock go up
126% in uh 2024 and this is a reflection
of the increase in their ear earnings
per share now what’s important to me is
what are they telling me their earnings
per share are going to be in 2025
they’re telling me it’s going to be
$24.88 or a
92% increase from last year and then in
2026 a 22% increase so what I do now is
I take an average and what I want to
find out for every 37 % that the
earnings per share increase over history
we have gotten a
64% increase in the price of the stock
huh now I can look and say okay if we’re
going to get a 92% increase in
2025 what does that equate to the price
that we have currently uh at
$762 multiplied times a multiple of 172
and that’s what this number and this
number is and that tells me that if
history holds true that Nvidia will be
worth a year from uh now and in
2026 at the start of 2026
$1,969 so does that make it attractive
to me to buy it at
$691
today after it goes through this
retracement yes it really does then I
see that it’s going to have a a 22%
increase in earnings in
2026 and that’s going to give me another
100 uh 38% so at the end of 2020 at the
start of
2027 nvidia’s price will be
$2,778 if I’m
wrong by 20% I really don’t care it’s
giving me a direction to buy now how can
I reinforce that commitment to such
outlandish in increases in price I do
more research I look at what is the
revenues what are the revenues increase
these are in billions 4.6 went up 7% 38%
as you can see Nvidia is raising their
net re revenues until we get to the
pandemic and they go down this in 2021
one was when Jensen Wong learned about
artificial intelligence and this is when
their revenues started shooting up
because he started spreading the word
and you can see that their revenues
increased
dramatically uh as we went forward what
drove those revenues this number R&D
research and development when did
research and development start to grow
in Nvidia
right there that’s when Jensen Wong
learned about artificial intelligence
and how his GPU chip was going to be the
prominent chip
98% in data centers in order to process
the data that was going to be needed to
meet the needs of AI That’s when it took
off and there you can see it now then I
ask myself all right what’s the other
metric I need to be aware of and that’s
gross profits did gross profits increase
as revenues increased and the number I
want you to look at is their gross
margins here and as you can see back in
16 they were 56 look what they are now
63 65 57 and last year
73% this is a company that is has more
demand than they have Supply so what do
do you do when you have more demand than
you have Supply you raise your prices
and your gross margins go up as your
gross margins go up your earnings per
share goes up as your earnings per share
goes up your price goes up so this makes
me feel confident that I will have a
$2,000 stock at the end of
2025 and I will have a
$2700 stock at the end of
2026 okay so now what I need to do is
convey this message to my tribe members
and I do that on my cheat sheet this is
my cheat sheet this is all the stocks
that I follow in the bus 12 and bus 13
portfolio the bus 12 are those people
who offer the hardware and and the
semiconductors and and the the building
out of what going to need in the future
I have blotted out everything but uh
Nvidia why is that I spend a lot of time
doing this and I spend a lot of money
doing this and I’m not giving it away
I’ll give away my uh information on
Nvidia but what I’m showing here is that
if I can buy it at 600 uh
$691 125 there it is now and it’s
currently selling
at7 um
$62 and if I then determine the future
price based on my projection based on
wall Street’s projection based on the
technical analysis and then the fair
value based on uh free cash flow I come
up with a price that is not exactly the
uh price here but an average of these
numbers if I hit my price right and you
buy the stock at
$762 you’re going to make 50% on it in
the next year if in fact I hit my Buy
price of
$691 I’ll make 11% more than you okay so
that’s how I share my research with my
tribe and I do it for 37 stocks okay and
do this same kind of analysis so that I
can justify the the price that the stock
is going to be at the end of 2026 and at
the end of or 2025 and at the end of
2026 and with those kind of Rises I
don’t have to be exact and if I can
support it with data and then use that
data to make projections into the future
I’m going to do do just fine okay now
are all of these stocks buys no no some
of them don’t have this kind of
information and do I do this kind of
analysis on every one of the stocks I I
I look at you bet I do there they are
every one of them I do this indepth
analysis to determine at what price do I
want to buy the stock and at what price
do I want to sell it
I’m Carrie grm I’m a retired financial
adviser I have learned that if I can
analyze these stocks if I can use past
history from the data that is now
available to me when I was a financial
adviser this data was not available
because we didn’t have the internet and
we didn’t have the sources where I could
go and create formulas and put a ticker
symbol right here and all these numbers
fill in and give me a projection and
then those numbers transfer to my chat
sheet and I share it with my people if
you want to be a part of this tribe if
you want to have access to the
information up until two years ago was
only available to Goldman Sachs the big
hedge funds the big Banks who had
46,00 employees and man needs $2
trillion if you want access to that kind
of information information and you don’t
want to pay 2% of your assets under
management and 20% of any profits you
make then get on the bus how many times
do I have to say that it’s going to cost
you $60 a month to get on the bus and
get access to this if you can’t
make
$6,000 a month over the next three years
then don’t spend your money with me take
your money and pay your 2 and 20 with a
hedge fund all right I’m Carrie grink
marmer retired financial adviser I’m
having the time of my life because I
figured this out and I recognize that
there is a very small group of people
who understand and know what I’m doing
and can do it as well and the problem
they have is they have
46,00 employees they have to pay and
they have $2 trillion dollar under
management so when so it takes time to
take a position I can take a position
like that because I don’t have $2
trillion and I suspect you don’t either
so let’s take advantage of our advantage
and that is we now have access to the
same data they have we just need to know
where to go to get it and then how to
analyze it and produce it and interpret
it I just showed you the future based on
the past of Nvidia if you want access to
any other stock because eventually as I
said you will come to my website you
will enter a ticker there and that’ll
all fill in and you’ll
know what your stock is actually worth I
did a video the other day uh you you
you’ll see it it has man Jim Kramer on
it and Jim was touting proor gamble go
look at that video find out what Proctor
gamble is worth and what it’s going to
be worth in the future find out how can
a company whose revenues are growing
less than inflation can stay in
business think about that you own a
business you got employees to pay you
got PR supplies to buy and your revenues
are growing less than
inflation how do you stay in business
I’m Carrie grar I’m a retired financial
adviser I paint Picasso paintings I do
photographs and I create
videos I wish I’d learned at a younger
age that I’m not a Salesman I’m a
Creator and I just created your ticket
to wealth get on on the bus
[Music]

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