Bitcoin Halving Kicks Off The Bull Run

Bitcoin Halving Kicks Off The Bull Run

what was it last week or a week and a
half ago we were down around 60,000
you’re getting a nice bump back up
66,000 today chanal 66,000 but still off
those highs let’s take that contrarian
view too taking a look at Bitcoin
climbing following the weekends having
remember the having cuts the number of
Bitcoin produced daily in half we’re
going to discuss that more with pomp
Investments founder Anthony Pompano and
I think you sit here on a Monday Cal him
after the storm and you wonder did it
did it work I mean the having worked but
did it really create that Catalyst for
crypto that everyone expected yeah one
of the things that everyone wants to see
is like the having occurs in a minute
later all of a sudden the price goes up
or down or sideways what’s going to
occur but what we’ve seen historically
is that the having does take some time
to kind of work in um there was great
research that came out of bitwise and
what they showed was in the month before
the having the average return over the
last couple of bull markets has been 19%
in the month after the having it’s been
1.7% so you’d say oh if I look at it as
a 30-day before 30-day after it doesn’t
really matter but if you actually look
at it over a longer time frame let’s say
12 months or 18 months the having has
marked a point where then we go up and
so it’s just classic economics 101 right
if demand stays the same and you take
away half of the incoming Supply the
price has to adjust up or down to
accommodate everyone I think that this
time won’t be any different you have to
wonder how long the having kind of works
as a monetary theory if you will and a
way to control the supply of Bitcoin to
your point if demand stays the same but
at what point do you know that demand
will continue at the same Pace that it
has we’ve already seen a lot of those
flows into the ETF start to moderate
yeah what’s interesting is that Bitcoin
actually the demand in terms of
aggregate dollars is actually going up
and so what you would look at is you say
oh there’s lots of people who already
own Bitcoin who else is going to buy
Bitcoin well the biggest pools of
capital are still left and so if you
look at some of these large Sovereign
wealth funds Etc uh the ETFs introduce a
way for them to actually get price
exposure without taking control of the
Bitcoin so you can imagine there’s
certain countries around the world that
all a sudden they were buying Bitcoin
taking self custody people will be
asking some questions why are you doing
that right why are you taking your
Central Bank Reserves and getting it out
of uh these other assets that the US
likes you to have it in and so I do
think that the ETFs will allow that
price exposure there are sovn wells that
are going to go ahead and allocate to it
the question is just how much higher
will Bitcoin go in this bull market
that’s what everyone’s trying to figure
out there was a lot of talk before we
sort of ended up in this uh this new
bull market there was a lot of talk
about regulation right of course you
know you got whatever the SEC was trying
to do and then you had other Regulators
across the world basically trying to
clamp down on this you don’t really hear
about that much anymore I think they
kind of feel like well we’ve put out our
proposals and you know that’s the best
we can do yeah so I think that Bitcoin
is the first asset that’s kind of gotten
through the regulatory Gauntlet right in
Regulators around the world say hey this
is not a security this thing is kind of
a digital gold and we’re okay with that
and going to treat it that way uh the
other assets very much feel like they’re
still in the gauntlet right and
constantly there are Regulators both in
the United States and elsewhere trying
to figure out how to classify these
things uh the nice thing about the
United States capital markets is that
usually The Regulators figure it out it
may be tumultuous on the way there but
eventually they will reach some
agreement and they’ll all treat it the
same way and that’ll provide Clarity for
people to go and start building in this
industry in a way that I think is
conducive to what we’re trying to
accomplish in America I know some of
that regulatory risk has shifted away to
bitcoin to some of the other digital
assets but there’s also been a lot of
talk about maybe a potential upswing for
some of those assets as well the idea
that they haven’t necessarily
participated in the rally to the same
extent as Bitcoin one of the most
interesting things that people kind of
wake up to coming out of the crypto
world is there might be more Deens on
Wall Street than there are in the crypto
world right if you say to someone hey
you can get 10x leverage if you say that
there’s 100x opportunity there’s a lot
of people in suits and ties are going to
pay attention and so I do think that we
like to have a black and white world and
say oh like all the Risk Takers over
here in crypto all of the smart money is
on Wall Street but naturally there are
just as many Risk Takers if not more on
Wall Street and so what I think is now
going to be a big narrative going over
the next 12 months how do those
investors get access to those assets
right and so you’re going to see altcoin
ETFs you’re going to see them start to
create all kinds of different funds in
the private markets closed end opened
end Etc where they are going to try to
get at these assets they believe are
asymmetric because they want returns and
there’s not that many returns in other
asset classes Anthony I know you invest
kind of across asset here do you think
that at this point you would put more bu
money into Bitcoin versus the big Tech
Giants or do you start to take some
chips off the table in Bitcoin as
somebody who’s been a traditional crypto
investor and invest in normal way
markets I mean which is a better risk
asset to you at this point yeah there’s
a really interesting bifurcation that’s
occurring if you’re optimizing solely
for return I think people will continue
to allocate to bitcoin cryptocurrencies
because they see it as a more asymmetric
asset it’s got a bigger Tailwind more
Capital flowing in there one of the
things that people are not talking about
yet though is people in the crypto
industry who have built wealth up when
they go to a bank and they want to get a
mortgage they want to get some sort of
loan Etc the banks write their crypto
assets to zero and so now all of a
sudden if you show up and let’s say you
have $10 million in crypto and you have
$100,000 in the bank the bank says
you’re worth $100,000 and so what I do
see a lot of uh people in the crypto
world is they’re starting to diversify
slightly not not a ton but slightly
because they’re trying to actually say
look I’m going to get married I’m going
to get you know kids I’m going to try to
buy a house I I got to go kind of live
my life and so I think it’s just going
to be very interesting the wealth
generation crypto starts to seek into
these other asset classes and can they
do that though can they sort of provide
that without actually giving up control
or basically giving up ownership so this
is where now we’re going to have a
competition right obviously the Legacy
folks if you go talk to the banks their
official position is hey we don’t touch
those assets the younger people in the
banks they want these people to be able
to interface with their financial
services Etc but right now you’ve got to
sell the crypto to be able to get Fiat
or kind of traditional assets put into
the bank
what I do think is people in the cpto
who say why don’t we just go offer those
financial services and we’ll the cpto
you won’t have to sell it and I think
that’s where the competition is going to
be will the old incumbents win or will
these new players come out on top all
right Anthony great stuff Anthony bump
leano bump Investments founder

Anthony Pompliano joins Bloomberg to talk bitcoin halving, macro economy, historical bull markets, and overview of crypto industry.

Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/

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