Raoul Pal’s Bold Prediction: ETH Triumphs Over Bitcoin

Raoul Pal’s Bold Prediction: ETH Triumphs Over Bitcoin

I managed to capture that entire
Trend and it’s very normal for crypto
summer um spring for Bitcoin to
outperform and then as we come into
crypto summer that we’re transitioning
into now e starts to outperform bitcoin
this is a terribly unpopular thing to
say because people say well eth is dead
it’s a dead chain it’s not working blah
blah blah blah just wait have patience
you will see will it outperform salana I
very much doubt it Solana’s earlier in
the adoption curve so it means the
percentage changes are larger so that’s
how I see it with that you can see the
start of crypto spring which was the
breakout of this pattern and the slight
acceleration that’s as we’re getting to
warmer days of spring as it
were but really summer happens when you
break the previous all-time high in
market cap and things go utterly bananas
so this is X ethereum so this is the
rest of the space really starting to
accelerate and sometime in
2024 we will hit all-time high market
cap of altcoins and this chart will go
truly into the banana Zone which I know
is a very fun time people lose their
minds in this period and I’m
urging you to remember my rules about
don’t use
leverage keep top three top five market
cap
tokens if you are going to go out the
risk curve do it for 10% of your capital
or less just be careful out there don’t
this up this is a gift but you can
screw it up by getting greedy getting
fomo and doing stupid you shouldn’t
do just don’t do that if you want to
have some fun catch a old sign coin
season do it with your 10% who knows you
might make a 10x on it chances are
you’ll end up with a bunch of
embarrassing stuff in your wallet that
goes to zero over time that’s the way it
works but your eth salana Bitcoin I’ll
do just
fine okay let’s talk about Krypto summer
just in a very simplistic terms here’s
the chart of the
seasons so spring is green we had a
great spring this
year summer is when a lot of the gains
start to
happen four was tricky last time around
we got a stunted cycle
if you remember that kind of double
toppy style thing was highly unusual
2017 2013 were more typical obviously of
the full
season and so we don’t know how this
one’s going to play out I think it plays
out more like 2013
2017 but it’s all assessing the odds as
we go but right now this is the easy
year the summer so we should just be to
set it forget it and let the games
accumulate
and then very
soon very soon like in the next month
next month and a half we will start to
hit the banana Zone and this is what
happens when you hit the banana Zone
things get absolutely
wild which is the really magical part of
why this is the greatest macro trade of
all time is this part and it’s
coming will it look the same as others
who knows some have been Absolut
absolutely crazy others were more
difficult like the last cycle but that’s
usually what happens when we hit altcoin
season from Summer and then into fall
things get really really exciting now at
exponential age Asset Management I won’t
talk much about that is we actually
build a whole portfolio allocation of
where we want to be on the risk curve
using lots of factors that Julian Bell
has put together from the everything
code valuation percentiles volatility uh
where we are in Old season different
measurements of all of this these nine
different things and then give it a
total score right now we’re at 9.2 out
of 10 so almost at Max risk-taking but
we’re not there yet because we haven’t
got um we’re not fully Into Summer but
that that day will come and we allocate
to managers accordingly this kind of
risk scoring is just the summary of what
I’ve been talking about is right now
this is the time to take risk don’t use
leverage be careful what you own have
fun out there and do it right so
hopefully what I’ve done here is try and
teach you why this matters why you
should in this Festival of learning
listen to other people and learn some
skills how not to this up which is
crucially important because you’re being
given a
gift why it’s such a big gift how
ridiculous the returns have been over
time and are likely to be going forwards
obviously there’s no guarantee but I
don’t see anything changing
how the everything code plays into this
how the the refinancing of debts every
four years creates a four-year cycle
that happens to correspond with the
Bitcoin harving cycle and the US
presidential election cycle how that
breaks down into different seasons how
liquidity plays into this and how
demographics play into it and how
liquidity is being used to debase your
currency making your future self poorer
and then I’ve shown you how crypto fits
into your portfolio to offset not only
the
debasement it’s a life R for your asset
but also happens to be an asset that
goes up more than any other asset of all
and this is not funny internet money
it’s actually driven by macro it’s
driven by the business cycle like all
other assets are it’s driven by the
liquidity cycle which happens to be we
think
pretty
forecastable yes it gives them crazy
numbers for
performance and again they’re not my
targets I don’t really care where it
gets to in price because the next cycle
it’s going to be higher and the cycle
after that higher even if the returns
lower over time maybe they don’t there’s
a big thesis out there that that we will
get tapering returns and the log channel
of Bitcoin is the wrong way to look at
it I don’t see any evidence of that in
the NASDAQ that’s been a powerful
channel for a very long time now I don’t
see any reason why you need to get lower
returns but maybe we do I’ll worry about
that when we get to 4 billion users so
in a nutshell this space is going from
2.7 trillion in market cap it’ll get to
something like 10 12 trillion in this
cycle it’ll then have an inevitable bare
Market whether it’s as big as the
previous bare markets or not we can’t
tell we’ve now got new participants put
in their 401K money every two weeks
maybe they all Panic out nobody
knows but it doesn’t matter because
those sell-offs are the opportunity if
you can take some lifestyle chips off
protect yourself in the great crazy days
uh later this year and then you’re fine
then you can run it if you want to you
don’t have to I
will and then you can add into the bare
Market when everybody’s scared cuz you
got a
plan this is the plan this is the
framework that you need to have
confidence just keep
going
anyway as I always say good luck out
there the biggest macr trend of all
time let’s see if we can be part of this
generation this generating of wealth the
let’s say 90 something trillion of
wealth that’s going to come because that
will truly change your life and your
family’s life all right take
care okay well I hope I got across to
you all the things I was trying to
explain in the video how big this is how
not to it up how important this is
and again I’m going to reiterate the
don’t this up don’t use
leverage because it’s a way people to
take your coins store your coins
carefully don’t let anybody else have
them I think most of the big exchanges
are safe
but to be extra safe I don’t really
leave stuff in exchanges it’s all in
Cold Storage yeah it’s a pain to set up
but once you do it you feel
safer then don’t fomo into stupid
because your friends are making money or
you’re seeing some bloke making money in
a mean coin if you want to do stuff
outside of the three or four big crypto
um
cryptocurrencies then do it with 10% of
your money there you can have fun there
you can be a gambling filthy
Degen but don’t don’t do that with the
bulk of your assets because you think
you’re never going to get a chance how
you going to grow your two grand it will
compound over time just trust me on this
and then you can play for the 100 X’s
whatever you do you will probably lose
money in that uh in that 90% bucket when
I look at my own allocation my own
allocation is probably
1% um memes and like that most of
it’s just straightforward and I don’t
use leverage and even though I’ve used
leverage over years I don’t want to use
leverage in a market that is this
volatile
anyway remember this is just part of the
education go to realvision I beg you
realvision decom and just smarten
yourself up get turn the information
that you see into a world of knowledge
and wisdom and the Festival of learning
will help you do it and if you’re
watching this after the Festival of
learnings taken place well you can watch
the the the reruns of it there plus all
of the education we’ve got on real
Vision you can talk to the AI ask it for
questions of how to understand you know
the terms that people use how to
understand what liquidity is how to
understand all of this it’s all there
for you we built it for you anyway enjoy
yourselves get some education and let’s
take advantage of the biggest macro
opportunity of all time

Watch the full episode https://youtu.be/xT_WlcO_HKI

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