3 Sectors That Are Showing Strength

3 Sectors That Are Showing Strength

[Music]
hey there everyone and welcome to the
final bar it’s Wednesday April 24th I’m
your host Dave Keller I’m the chief
Market strategist here at
stockcharts.com and a cloudy Redmond
Washington thanks for joining us every
weekday after the close as we break down
the market action using the power of the
stock charts platform our platform was
designed 25 years ago this month to
empower investors to better understand
the markets using the language of
technical analysis many of my
predecessors people like the great Allen
Shaw Ralph aora Louis Yamada Phil Roth
so many others uh did such a great job
of educating those around them on Wall
Street at a time when people were super
unfamiliar with technical analysis the
rise in hedge funds the rise in uh you
know uh retail investing in the uh UHC
era continuing through more recent uh
recent years uh the technical analysis
tool could arguably one of the best
tools or one of the best sets of
information to allow individual
investors to have a chance of competing
with the big firms and I would say if
you have a disciplined process of
analyzing the markets using charts
you’re going to be a step ahead of of
those that do not and hopefully this
show the final bar and our platform
stockcharts.com help you to answer those
questions you’re trying to answer great
guest today Ryan Redfern of uh Shadow
Ridge uh invest asset manager and also
president of name is going to be joining
us here in in a while talking to us
about sentiment but also just a quick
rundown of what’s working and what’s not
what better place to do that than uh
here on the fa ofar with that in mind
let’s get to our Market recap and see
how the markets have evolved here over
the last session before we get to the
charts a poll we had going recently on
our social media platform so make sure
you follow us on all the socials we ask
you which ETF performs best over the
next 3 months Technology Energy
Communications Services utilities I was
surprised to see communication Services
get very little love fear this is uh one
of the sectors it’s actually I mean
arguably alphabet maybe one of the best
charts out there right now uh which is
in that sector but most of us actually
picking energy as the best opportunity
uh technology coming in second I mean
honestly if I had to pick two and they
think about it over the next three
months I think that’s about right I
would agree with the masses here uh
suggesting that one of those two is
probably the best opportunity energy
good because it’s a play on higher
commodity prices and as I’ve talked with
a number of my guests here recently uh
commodity prices certainly resurging um
my discussion with Tyler wood of go no
go charts my discussion of Joe Rabel of
Rael stock research here in the last
couple weeks really focused on the
Resurgence of uh of Commodities and a
number of other guests as well uh the
technology space is interesting because
the question is if we do have more of a
pullback than we’ve seen so far how long
do you really expect that to last and at
some point if those Mega cap growth
names like a Microsoft like an apple
really get beaten down even more at some
point people are going to see them as an
incredible buying opportunity as an
incredible value play on a
wellestablished technology company I
think uh there’s an argument to be made
uh there as well I probably pick energy
but I uh I appreciate you guys so much
answering the poll let’s get going here
with our Market recap uh mixed results
is the way that I would describe uh this
day’s session if you look at the little
preview chart you’ll see the S&P
actually has been consolidating through
the course of the session today lower
highs higher lows after that initial
rally out of the open end of the day the
S&P really ended up revolving around
yesterday’s close that’s 570 and this is
a well documented phenomenon right we
opened and moved higher we then moved
way below yesterday’s close which is
indicated by the uh blue dashed line
here we then a little above a little
below and then we end up right about
almost to the penny right at that point
I mean literally almost unch to the uh
by definition we closed just below 5072
the NASDAQ Composite slightly higher Dow
slightly lower this was a yawner a
snoozer of a session in terms of the
General market movements if you look
underneath the hood a lot of things were
moving and we’ll look at some of the
individual stocks here uh in a bit but
overall the equity averag is not really
uh giving up a lot not really gaining a
lot either and this is after bouncing
off of uh recent lows through the course
of this week this is the first day this
week we have had sort of a not super
bullish day midcap slightly higher small
cap slightly lower the S&P 600 was down
a quar of a percent the vix slightly
higher but still above 15 still below 16
we’re sort of in that no man’s land
between uh low volatility and high
volatility looking at the interest rate
environment uh rates overall moved
higher today the 10year yield finish
today around
465 long bond yield around 478 the short
end of the curve of course is still
elevated this is part of that inverted
yield curve excuse me that we’ve talked
about many times on the show
inverted yield curve you know usually is
what happens around recessionary periods
or certainly leading into recessionary
periods I mean debatable whether we’ve
actually experienced one of those I
remember my guest um who was that I
think it was Ryan Dietrich talking about
how a sort of a shadow recession and
small caps were the recession but uh the
large cap space didn’t really reflect
that as much maybe he’s right bond price
is moving down today the TLT was down
about 7% dollar pretty much flat from
yesterday’s
close looking at the commodity space
you’ll see generally speaking more red
than green even though copper prices
were slightly higher gold and silver
prices actually finished slightly lower
energy prices particularly natural gas
moved down in a pretty uh decent way
looking at the crypto space a lot of red
uh since the Bitcoin having right which
is sort of coming out of that from last
week you can see Bitcoin T 67,000 here
over the next uh the last 24 hours but
really has rotated lower through the
course of the equity session so
cryptocurrency currencies and stocks a
lot of times have actually moved in a
very similar way you’re actually not
seeing that today you saw stocks sort of
chopping around here but Bitcoin and
ethereum prices almost in more of a
consistent downtrend uh here in the last
6 to8
hours looking at the 11 S&P sectors here
you can see consumer at the top of the
list xly number one up 1% Consumer
Staples number two up 8% utilities
number three up 6% only three of the 11p
S&P sectors that is finished in the red
Industrials down 8% Healthcare down 3%
financials and communication Services
really flat from the day
yesterday you know our Market Trend
Model A little noisy here there’s been a
lot of movement here and we update this
infrequently during the day it’s really
at the end of the day that we sort of
excuse me reassess where these uh this
uh Market Trend model is at the main
Market Trend model that I feature in my
mindful investor live chart list is’s
using the S&P 500 that’s the main one
that I pay attention to but I do run
that model on a bunch of other uh ETFs
and indexes uh We’ve captured eight of
those and have included them as a uh as
a widget on the new uh stock charts
panels so you can add this to your
dashboard it’s a great just visual way
of showing in this case shortterm down
medium-term still up longterm still up
the NASDAQ 100 actually is toying around
that zero level the uh small cap ETF the
iwm toy around that uh that zero level
on the medium-term time frame but our
main Market Chen model still bullish
medium-term and long-term we really only
formally update those at the end of the
week so after Friday’s close maybe worth
paying attention to that to see if
there’s been any change in that market
Trend model finally looking at the
Magnificent Seven in friends and
generally in air quotes here um what was
one I just got actually and thanks again
for all the suggestions of what we
should recall this group oh man I should
have jot jotted this one down this is an
interesting one I think the market
makers was uh was what someone mentioned
in a comment um not bad I actually kind
of like that sort of a double anandra
sort of a play on the market maker of
the role on the floor of the exchange
and on the NASDAQ uh market makers and
they are making the market themselves
those leading names not bad let’s Riff
on that keep the ideas coming if you
have a new way of describing these
leadership Mega cap names because with
Tesla and apple doing what they’ve done
very different I think magnificent 7 is
probably uh needs to be sunset let’s
come up with a better way to uh describe
this group having said that out of these
stocks the two gaining the most today
Tesla and apple Tesla up 12% uh earnings
after the close yesterday ended up being
uh kind of a nice surprise to the upside
Tesla gapped higher ended up being a bit
of a dogey candle today we’ll look at
that chart here in a few moments Apple
up about 1.3% on the downside Netflix
down 4% we highlighted that uh bullish
uh pattern called a Morning Star pattern
didn’t really play out today today
giving back a lot of those gains from
yesterday down to yesterday’s open so
down about 4% Nvidia down 3.3% Amazon
down 1.6% so truly mixed overall looking
at that uh group of leading Mega cap
names let’s go to a daily chart of the
S&P 500 here and uh see how things look
you know overall excuse me we’re playing
around with that 50/50 level this is a
pivot point what I call the Line in the
Sand you know I uh I spoke a lot uh as
we rotated down below the 50-day moving
average 5050 is the level the S&P above
50-50s pretty constructive S&P below
5050 not so much what’s interesting is
we uh this week have bounced back above
5050 look at how today’s low almost to
the penny right down to that uh Pink
horizontal line at that uh at that
number we ended up closing uh you know
above that uh slightly but I would say
through the course of this week my main
question would be do we finish the week
above or below Tesla had pretty solid
earnings that’s not enough to power the
market higher because it’s really driven
by a lot of those other Mega cap growth
names as well some of which actually got
uh got hurt quite a bit today so seeing
through earnings we’ve got um let’s see
Meta uh today after the close tomorrow
we have Microsoft alphabet Intel these
are Big Mega cap uh names in the
technology communication sectors
certainly have the possibility to propel
the markets higher above the 50-day
moving average also have the opportunity
to move the markets lower I would also
point out that the RSI for the S&P 500
remains below 50 and that’s not a great
look as a market sort of recovers after
an initial selloff you really want to
see the RSI power above 50 ideally power
above 60 that would be sort of an all
clear of sorts telling you that there’s
enough upside momentum to propel the
markets back to retest that previous
high and I did a webcast uh yesterday
morning on Tuesday one of the things I
asked the uh participants which comes
first the S&P breaking to new alltime
highs again or the S&P breaking below
the 200 day moving average kind of we’re
kind of in the middle of that right so
which comes first a breakout to new
highs above 5250 a breakdown below the
200 day at 4700 the responses were dead
even almost exactly about 53 to
47% basically indecision a coin flip
according to the viewers of that webcast
which one comes F first I would
encourage you to think about your own
answer to that question drop a comment
let me know which you feel is more
likely to come first and why what’s
going to get us to that particular level
I’d love to hear what you guys uh what
you guys think you know of course uh one
of the things we can do is look at
multiple time frames as we’ve talked
about many times on the show and I just
want to highlight over the last uh week
so starting last Thursday we have
Thursday Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
you have down days like last Friday you
have clear up days like uh yesterday and
then you have a decidedly sideways day
right I me talk about a day that really
didn’t gain or lose anything lower highs
higher lows through the course of the
trading day this was really sort of a
shorter term coil pattern here on the F
minute chart what you look for on this
kind of pattern is a break at some point
we either break to the upside or we
break to the downside a lot of earnings
uh between today after the close and
tomorrow I think that could be the thing
that propels uh the markets one way or
the other GDP by the way for Q2 comes
out tomorrow before the open as well I
think that’s around 8:30 a.m. eastern so
make sure you check in on that as well
maybe one other chart here from our
mindful investor live Char Liston we’re
going to look at some earnings names
here the mclelan oscillator as of
yesterday’s close this updates once a
day uh well after the close as we crunch
all the data make sure we have the right
uh pricing to reflect that but the mlen
oscillator did break above the zero line
yesterday what I tend to look for is two
days above or below that level a break
before I would change the color coding
so I’ll be looking at that after the
close today to see if we did get indeed
get back above the uh the zero level
that would actually be kind of
encouraging because that would mean the
breadth is improving off of the lows I’m
not sure if we’re going to see that
given what’s happened through the course
of the day today it might be uh sort of
a coin flip based on what seeing but
we’ll uh we’ll check back in on that and
report back on yesterday or tomorrow’s
show looking at Bitcoin I just want to
highlight very quickly Bitcoin is
another one of those charts sort of on
the move here here we
go so if you look at the chart of
Bitcoin here uh for a little while I
mean we’re really range-bound more than
anything and we’ve had the Bitcoin
having which you know tends to be
short-term choppy uh to down long-term
tends to be quite constructive so if you
look 6 to 12 12 months after ever
Bitcoin having in history it’s turned
out being pretty good for uh for Bitcoin
because what it represents is that
Bitcoin has matured as an asset class
for lack of a better way of describing
it uh to the point that you’re having
the value of uh of mining uh Bitcoin uh
and so that actually means that we’ve
expanded right that there’s been enough
of a growth in the uh uh in the uh in
the
cryptocurrency what’s happened though
from a technical perspective is we’ve
settled in between resistance around
74,000 between support around 60,000 at
some point we break out of that range
and for now we appear to be failing at
the 50-day moving average or at the very
least over the last 24 hours pulling
back from that key level of resistance
very keen to see if we can get back
above the 50-day if so I think that
clears the way back to retest those
previous Highs but look to see which way
we break we’re bouncing between all-time
highs and Fibonacci and price support
right about now between 60 and 74k I
think the next direction of momentum
will be driven by which way we break
first all right let’s look at some
individual names here on the Move Tesla
reporting after the close yesterday the
good news is we gapped higher the bad
news is we really didn’t gain anything
additional after that moment think about
what that means right on a gap higher
it’s all about what happens after that
Gap obviously a good earnings release a
lot of people taking that as a as quite
a positive we ended the day up about 12%
that’s kind of right where we open so we
opened 12% higher it wasn’t like a bunch
of investors came in and thought great I
get to buy Tesla here at 160 I’m going
to push that up to 170 180 didn’t happen
actually buying and selling was
relatively even I can tell that by the
fact that the open and close are almost
at the identical level that’s called a
dogee candle usually is a reversal
candle suggest weakness rather than
strength even after the Gap higher so
keep an eye on that Gap uh through the
remainder of this week and see if that
is uh indeed able to
hold that is City Group which is the
long letter wrong letter that I just fat
fingered I meant V for Visa if you look
at Visa bit of a concerning uh chart and
again just a short-term re but if you
look Visa gapped higher this was uh
yesterday after the close as well we
gapped higher here around 283 by the
close we finished down at 275 and again
think about what that means within the
context of short-term sentiment we’ve
been trading lower after making a new
high at 290 we traded all the way down
to 270 last week we bounced higher this
week on earnings we Gap up did buyers
come in and push the price higher from
that moment on they did not there was
actually just a bunch of selling seems
that people were thrilled to uh be able
to sell off at that moment which you
know overall reflects less optimism for
Visa going forward that’s how I would
interpret uh just that one- day move
that we saw today n phase is another one
uh ended up trading up to the 50 and 200
day moving averages which are kind of
clustered right around 118 to 120 you
can see we traded down and actually back
at the swing low so nphase energy
another earnings name figur finishing
down almost 6% % Steel Dynamics another
one of those that opened higher but
closed lower it’s a bit of a bearish
engulfing pattern it’s a little weird
because it’s happening during a
downtrend however you want to label it I
would say not particularly strong the
fact that we opened up at that point but
investors selling off so very much a
risk off feel to some of these stocks
that had looked pretty good uh Seagate
Technologies STX is a hard drive
manufacturer in the uh in the technology
sector another dogee candle open and
close ended up being at the same we did
trade briefly above the 50-day moving
average earlier today but closed back
below uh keep an eye on Western dig
Western Digital WDC which reports
tomorrow those are two that I tend to
think of the same if you’re looking at
the one I immediately want to look at
the
other couple others reporting before the
open today odfl is an interesting one to
watch we’ve talked about this one before
and I want to say at some point this one
of been might have been one of the top
10 charts Grayson Rose and I talked
about wasn’t this last round that we did
here in April but it was one of those
previous ones I want to say probably
when it broke out of this base but it
really hasn’t materialized look we’ve
remained above an up upward sloping
50-day moving average until the last
week or so we broke down through the
50-day traded up to the 50-day closed
above it yesterday but today on earnings
we’re going back down not just below the
50-day but closing indeed below the 200
day moving average for the first time
really since May of last year down about
11% today General Dynamics GD trading
down to its 50-day moving average bit of
distribution here that defense space is
one we did talk about Grayson Rose and I
I think that was last Friday on our top
10 charts to watch for April see if it’s
able to hold it traded below the 50-day
and closed back above it I would say
overall a chart like this is still
constructive if it can hold that
ascending 50-day moving average look
back here to January and how that played
out the RSI stabilized around 40 do we
get that same sort of level here hold
above an ascending 50-day moving average
we have meta after the close today lamb
research rcx tomorrow uh don’t forget
about Microsoft alphabet Intel a lot of
stocks reporting earnings it’s a heavy
mey time for company specific news don’t
forget about the earnings calendar just
click on charts and tools at the top of
our website to make sure you can track
the names that are reporting in the
coming days and uh weeks couple quick
announcements before we bring on today’s
guest Ryan Redfern first we welcome your
questions we’re going to do an all
mailbag episode on Friday of this week
we’ll do another one hopefully in the
weeks to come we’d love to answer one of
your questions live on the air the final
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low rate I want to welcome on today’s
guest Ryan Redfern Ryan’s the president
and chief investment officer at Shadow
Ridge Asset Management coming to us from
Austin Texas also the president of name
the National Association of active
investment managers Ryan good to have
you back how are you these days I’m
awesome great to be back good to see you
no it’s good to chat with you and the
last time you were on we we dug into the
name exposure index a little more which
is a sentiment indicator I like to
highlight what a pleasure to hear you as
the president of the organization
explaining some of the nuances now we
have kind of a different way of looking
at it using the point and figure
methodology I’m excited to see what this
chart’s telling you here let’s get into
it sure sure and of course to to preface
this is this is the the name uh
Community is pulled weekly every
Wednesday to see that their their status
is how are they allocated at the end of
the day which is on a Wednesday so are
they you know they could be up to
positive 200 to negative 200 and then
that range then we compile that and then
it’s posted on Thursday just so you know
what that is right um a name member uh
and and CMT John Roa pointed this out to
me that looking at the at the name
sentiment index on or exposure index on
point and figure gives some interesting
insights that we don’t normally get um
if you use the X’s O’s and I I know
enough to be dangerous because I’m a CMT
but I’m not a big point and figure guy
but what he was showing me is that when
you start getting the O’s as the sell
signal it tends to be pretty good in
that context right the X’s are are are a
buy and the O’s are or a sell so this
one actually gave a sell signal the
first week of April for that context and
then the last few have given decent
signals to say you know this is time to
be in or this is time to be out based on
how the managers are
managing and then there’s a secondary
look at it um was talking to Rob Hann of
quantifiable edges and he breaks it down
into quintiles right so 20 and below 20
to 40 40 to 60 60 to 80 and then
everything over 80 and then broke those
down into like what typically happens
when the index is in those ranges right
and what he found was typically when
it’s when the market is trending up so
say above the 200 day moving average
just as a as a context uh when it pulls
back into that 40 to 60 range the odds
of the market being up over the next one
week are very good it’s a it has a very
high profit rate uh so it’s an
interesting way to come at it and and
use it for a pullback a reference to see
if this pullback is time to to to buy
buy into it it’s so interesting and no
this is so interesting uh Ryan and
thanks so much for bringing this with
you so the number four here for those
that aren’t familiar with the point and
figure methodology you know there’s no
date you know generally assigned this is
looking at Trends and just uptrends and
downtrends so little number four
basically is the beginning of April and
as you mentioned first week in April you
get that breakdown a column of O’s going
below the previous column of O’s That’s
a classic cell signal and really just
the rotation that you know has gotten us
down to the low 60% and uh interesting
to get down to that quintile between 40
and 60 something we should watch uh you
know relative to all the other pullback
uh signals we’ve gotten talk us through
some of the other charts you’re you’re
looking at here we’re looking at the S&P
we’ve obviously you know first three
months of the uh year incredibly strong
April very different feel and now this
week we’re starting to bounce higher how
are you making sense of this uh of this
uh current situation well I think this
point we have to weigh is this just a a
relief Rally or was that at the bottom
of we need to come around and know last
time we were here the market had just
hit 5,000 and and I at that time I think
you were a little more bullish than I
was I’m thinking you know this has got
to be the top it’s got to be the top but
but we never got any kind of
confirmation to say that you know there
wasn’t momentum stayed enough sectors
stayed positive it’s it’s how I look at
things so I really didn’t fight it but
once we hit into April to kind of build
on that that first week of April Start
things started to break down we started
to see one thing I like to look at is
the adx the the directional momentum
that kind of shifted over to the way I
think of it is the sellers are more in
charge at that point not in a big way
but enough to be like hey we should
think about this and then it broke down
below the 21 Day moving average that’s
that’s something to pay attention of I I
like the 21 because it’s looking at one
month at a time that’s kind of the time
frame I like to work in um so when it
broke down I like oh this this doesn’t
look right so uh it was time to to back
off and maybe hedge a little bit but
then the question is how far down do we
go uh because the 21 right now is at
around 5100 y uh that could be where we
stop in Reverse if you go back a few
over the month I mean that’s that’s
really been a key point where the
Market’s touched and then bounced but
it’s been bouncing back up and now this
that could now be the ceiling before we
pull back further and looking at the the
um oh jeez what are those called the
Fibonacci retracements yeah yeah the
Fibonacci retracements there’s there’s
more downside if it can’t hold these
numbers it’s got a long way to go and
there’s a several key numbers even down
to what is it 4700 could be possible
even further that look like a key a key
number back there as well it’s so I mean
it’s such an interesting chart I’m I’m
so glad you included the 21-day
exponential moving average look on the
way up how many times we kind of tested
that on the way up right now clearly
difference and and and now we’re we’re
trading up and testing it from uh from
below a really important level to watch
to around 500 uh 5100 that is uh using
that chart let’s look at some of the uh
groups and sectors that have been
leading here financials really
resurged in the first quarter now
chopping around with the uh with the
rest of the space the XLF talk us
through a couple of these sector ETFs
and what stands out to you sure well
what’s interesting is the the defensives
are the ones leading and not financials
but certainly xlp xlu they’re above
they’re back above the 21 Day the
directional momentum is back on you know
Greens on top that’s positive but then
you look at the big stuff like well we
could look at um xlp for example XL or
xlu yeah same thing we’re above the 21
xlp same thing above the 21 and it’s
holding for now it actually this morning
was weak but now it’s good again it’s
like the only positive sector this
morning seen usually not a great sign
when Staples are the only positive
sector for the record no it isn’t that
and that’s what gives me pause about the
S&P which can’t seem to well it’s right
up against that 21 is that going to be
the ceiling Because unless I see xlk
which we can look at yeah which is not
there right it’s it’s weak there are a
lot of sectors like that XLV X Y is a
good one yeah X just touching up
there Red’s over green same thing that
that was looking strong this morning but
I don’t think it is anymore this is a
this is an interesting way to show this
where I’m looking and and I really
appreciate what you’re illustrating here
which is having one chart looking at the
two 21-day EMA the uh directional
movement index which includes the adx
line going through those six sectors you
can clearly tell there’s one bucket that
is looking stronger there’s one bucket
that’s not looking stronger I feel like
it’s become a little more clear here
recently is that fair oh absolutely has
has yeah for sure and then it’s and then
I was gon to say it’s fun to look at
these upside down if you want look at
dog is an inverse Dow and this is one
that a trade that we actually did was uh
we broke above the 21 oh that hey that’s
good uh and then the adx the the green
is over red down there first week of
April it might be time to to buy some
inverse as a hedge against the market
since I felt like it was a little bit
copy so this this is kind of cushioning
the fall a little bit but you you play
it just like a regular a regular trade
it’s you know we went crossed above the
21 adx agrees we got some other factors
in there that say yeah we should we
should look into this it all just kind
of comes together I feel like back in
the day Ryan before inverse ETFs the
trick was to invert the chart right just
flip the whole thing literally flip and
I remember printing them out and
literally looking him from behind and
seeing you know is that look like a
strong chart we’re able to do that now
with inverse ETFs like uh dog you can
see sort of this breakout it’s almost
pulling back to that higher low seems
like an interesting setup and the trends
in the bottom using the DMI using the
adx pretty constructive and overall
holding up there pretty well that’s a
really interesting way to think of it uh
thanks for sharing that let’s talk a bit
about breath we talked about breath on
Monday show in a lot of detail um one of
the indicators we talked about was new
highs versus new lows talk us through
what this chart is telling you so mostly
I just sometimes I’ll just play with
charts to make them look completely like
they’re not supposed to it’s just a
weird habit of mine I look looking at at
this as a histogram kind of give some
good insights about when it’s below that
zero line it’s probably worth paying
attention to not necessarily a signal
but it’s context right if if we’re
starting to see that break down you know
more new lows over new highs there might
be something worth you might you want to
be hedging you might want to be reducing
risk you might want to be doing those
things but then when it moves back above
you it’s pretty much gets all clear when
you start getting the adx agree the 21
agrees you start getting agreements uh
it it just helps build that case for
which direction you want to be in the
market whether that’s to play it safe be
hedged be out or if you want to be all
in and you know in with leverage if you
want to be it’s interesting how you know
the this is basically looking at new
highs versus new lows and and which is
stronger at any given time you can see
obviously a lot of new highs relative to
new lows contrast that with September
October of last year we’ve once again
gone below the uh the zero line you know
how I mean when you’re thinking I mean
take a step back for me if you’re
looking at the um uh the S&P 500 I’ll
bring up the uh the chart here again you
know when you’re looking at the S&P sort
of at a high level um you know just take
us back to Now versus maybe August
September October of last year we had
more of a protracted decline when you’re
looking at what’s happened so far with
the breakdown of the 21-day EMA now
we’re kind of testing it from below what
would you need to see to sort of
validate a okay this is the time to get
super defensive you’ve highlighted some
of these themes like is there a line in
the sand or a level or a signal that
would tell you wow I really need to
unwind risk and raise cash in this
environment right right well I’d really
like to look at all the sectors with in
this context the 200 day the the D the
DMI and all that if I see the weak the
uh defensive start breaking down then
I’m like okay we need to be really
hedged and really locked down the the
risk at that point yeah and we did back
in September I mean there was a lot of
reason to I mean I even have a there’s a
stock charts alert feature that I love
that I send have my a daily list of all
the sectors and where they are on the
adx are they positive are they negative
so I I look at that’s my first thing
every day is like how many sectors are
positive how many are negative and that
kind of gives me a good context for the
day of how to be thinking about moving
forward and then I move into the da of
Keller charts and
then well said Ryan no I love that one
and I do a similar thing with some with
some chart list kind of focusing on the
you know just looking at that group
right those sectors and just seeing what
the situation is and then every all the
other things you look at after that kind
of formed by that initial assessment
that’s a great way to think of it just
because we’re in the midst of earning
season Ryan last question we’ve got a
lot of big earnings we had Tesla you
know a number of the sort of former
Magnificent Seven reporting this week
how do you sort of manage during a week
like this I know I would I would imagine
you’re probably not trading around
earnings too much but how do you deal
with the earnings risk in a portfolio
that you would be running you know for
us we largely do indexes and sectors we
don’t really dive too much into this
individ idual names I do pay attention I
mean look like Tesla had a good good
number overnight I don’t know how it’s
done this morning um but that’s
certainly affecting like the xlk or the
the the indexes to some extent yeah but
no you know when when when you’re I
think it more Diversified in in sectors
and and indexes kind of cushions that a
little bit because there’s going to be
something else that’s not going crazy
that day it tends to mute that that
volatility which which is always my goal
is to keep volatility as low as I can
I think that’s well said Ryan I mean
obviously looking at ETFs a larger group
you hopefully diversify away from the
risk from Individual names that’s that’s
very well said Ryan listen it’s great to
see you again thanks for bringing some
interesting charts with you as always
look forward to talking to you again
soon but in the meantime be well and uh
and all the best there in Austin all
right thanks Dave that’s Ryan Redford
Ryan’s the President Chief investment
officer at Shadow Ridge Asset Management
also the president of name we often
highlight the name exposure index part
of our sentiment toolkit really looking
at money managers like Ryan and others
how are they positioned the the fact
that you get to have that sort of
insights into how money managers are
positioning themselves what a great
benefit I mean why not look at that sort
of uh of information I love that chart
at the end about the new highs and new
lows I might I might gently borrow that
and credit Ryan with the uh with the uh
with the win uh thanks so much there to
Ryan Redfern of Shadow Ridge Asset
Management folks we got to wrap the show
and uh thanks so much for joining us
every weekday after the close for the
final bar again special thank you to
Ryan Redfern joining us from Austin for
stock charts in Redan Washington I’m
Dave Keller be well stay safe have a
good night

April 24, Final Bar host David Keller, CMT welcomes Ryan Redfern, ChFC CMT of Shadowridge Asset Management. David highlights companies reporting earnings this week, including TSLA, V, ENPH, STLD, STX, ODLF, and GD. Ryan shares key levels to watch on the S&P 500, along with a breakdown of three sectors showing strength along with three sectors suggesting more weakness ahead.

🧐 Dave’s “Mindful Investor” ChartList: https://schrts.co/TTCbWDpE

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00:00 Welcome to the Show!
01:45 Market Recap
09:12 S&P 500 Index ($SPX), NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO), Bitcoin to US Dollar ($BTCUSD)
14:33 Tesla (TSLA), Visa Inc (V), Enphase Energy (ENPH)
16:32 Steel Dynamics (STLD), Seagate (STX), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
17:54 General Dynamics (GD)
20:02 Interview w/Ryan Redfern, ChFC, CMT of Shadowridge Asset Management

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