Very Bad Signs For US Economy | Newmont Gold Price Just SURGED

Very Bad Signs For US Economy | Newmont Gold Price Just SURGED

hey everybody smart silver stacker here
hope you’re doing well welcome to
another live stream we’ve got a lot to
cover today because we’ve got some new
data that’s been released which shows
really just
how uh poorly the US economy is
performing as the FED
maintains restrictive monetary policy in
a massively
overleveraged debt addicted system uh we
might as well just start off with the
medals today so silver and gold uh
basically flat I mean Silver’s Down 2
cents Gold’s up 0.15% essentially flat
on the day that is significant though
when you look at the broad indexes
you’ve got all the major stock indexes
in the red
following what can only be considered a
disastrous news today really relating to
US GDP and inflation for the first
quarter we’re going to get into that in
just a moment but I think one of the
really big stories today is Newmont
gold uh this is the world’s largest gold
miner and if you notice their share
price today is up almost
11% uh that’s a pretty big move for the
world’s biggest gold
miner
and I think that this gives us an
indication of you know what it might
take to get the miners moving right now
the the miners still considerably
undervalued relative to the price of
gold and silver
themselves uh you know gold has been
taking out new all-time highs yeah gold
and silver have had a little bit of a
correction I think that that’s probably
done now uh and we’re going to resume
the move higher here
shortly uh but this is up 11% today now
what’s driving that well it’s the fact
that they had a blowout earnings uh
reported today here’s the headline
Newmont up 4.3% in pre-market trade of
course they’re continuing to Surge
higher here as the day moves on as
quarter 1 adjusted profit almost doubles
topping estimates so you know if you’ve
been wondering what is it going to take
for these gold and silver miners to
begin moving uh we’ve already seen gold
again taking out new all-time highs
moving up massively uh touching $22,400
recently and yet the miners have been
kind of languishing well I think what
it’s going to take is that the earnings
from the higher metal prices begin to be
uh reflective you know in the earnings
reports from the companies of course
these companies
are based uh valued based on their
earnings not on the price of the metals
and as Metals now are beginning to move
higher and uh stay there for a while I
think we’re going to see more and more
of these mining companies that are going
to be breaking out like newon I mean
look at the 5-day chart here that’s a
pretty big uh move higher
and still you know Newmont was over 80
bucks back in 2022 with gold prices
below where they’re at now so there’s
still a lot of room to run in these
mining stocks and these paper uh
positions you know I love physical metal
of course as a stacker uh but I do like
the paper derivatives as well I think
that’s where there’s really going to be
a lot of wealth growth if you just want
to preserve wealth of course there’s
nothing wrong with getting the physical
metal that should be your core position
not Financial advice just kind of my
thoughts of course you can head over to
SD bullion where I buy my golden silver
and my Platinum uh yesterday I pulled
the trigger on some junk silver and a
platinum coin I think maybe I kind of
pick near the bottom there because the
medals are all in the green today again
or you know flat and I think they’re
going to be heading much higher but
gold uh double eagles they’ve got a sale
on these interestingly I don’t own a lot
of pre-1933 gold but I was talking to
Lynette Zang recently in an interview if
you haven’t seen that go check that
video out that’s a good one and she was
telling us about how
premiums on pre-1933 gold on certain uh
issues are beginning to rise and that
may well be uh you know the case moving
forward of course this stuff’s kind of
like junk silver in that they haven’t
made it in a long time normally you got
to pay kind of a steep premium to get
these but this is not bad over at St BL
they got a nice sale on these $2 double
eagal gold coins so maybe consider
adding some of that to your stack uh but
let’s get into the data here which I
think you know it really
reveals just how much uh pressure is on
the US economy as we continue to see the
FED delaying rate Cuts because inflation
is on the rise so this is the headline
from axios US economy grew at
1.6% annualized rate in the first
quarter now this is the chart of
previous quarters you can see in quarter
4 of
2023 it was growing at an annualized
rate of 3.4% according to the official
numbers now look I mean
these numbers are likely cooked anyway
uh for one thing you know they are
inflation adjusted but I think the
inflation data that they use to adjust
these things understates the real level
of inflation so I mean that among other
factors are used to kind of doctor these
numbers but no amount of uh cooking the
books seems to be able to save this most
recent quarters
numbers analysts were expecting
something like 2.4% so this is a big
miss this is a big miss this is a big
problem and it’s really a big problem if
you think about it in light of the size
of the deficits we’re running so this is
from the recent uh monthly treasury
statement for March you can see in March
alone there was a
$236 billion deficit for fiscal year
2024 thus far we’re halfway through it
as of
March uh the deficit over a trillion
dollars so we’re on track to hit about
2.1 trillion slightly over that in
annual deficit spending and yet we’re
barely eeking out any GDP growth so that
should be pretty alarming because you
know the way this works is the
government will borrow this money from
the future spend it into the now kind of
goose GDP Goose the economic uh figures
make everything look a lot better than
it is and create this artificial
Prosperity but you reach this point
where you get kind of this entropy on
that spending where
you know at first maybe you borrow a
dollar and spend it into the economy you
get a dollar of
GDP you do that for a while the debt
levels get so high now you borrow a
dollar you get 50 cents of GDP
eventually you know you borrow a dollar
you get 1 cent of GDP and it looks like
we may be approaching that uh realm of
diminishing
returns and yet inflation continues to
run high so here’s a headline from Yahoo
finance about this uh economic data that
we got want to go over this real quick
so yeah the economy grew at 1.6 oh
they’re saying 2.5% was what Bloomberg
was expecting
now the reading again came in a lot
lower than last quarter GDP so we’re
seeing a slowing in economic growth and
then this is really the kicker here the
core personal consumption expenditure
index uh that’s excluding food and
energy grew by 3.7% in the first quarter
the estimates were 3 .4% so it’s growing
faster than estimated and in the last
quarter Q4 2023 it was only up 2% so and
that’s an annualized rate I believe but
you know you’re seeing economic growth
diminishing inflation
Rising now
previously in the you know past several
years when you get these hot inflation
numbers you see the metals come under
pressure it’s not really happening today
it’s definitely not happening with the
derivatives like uh the miners you know
uh numont up 10% and yet most of the
major stock indexes out there in the red
so this kind of gives you an idea that
things are starting to shift here and I
think investors may be beginning to
realize that higher
inflation regardless of what the FED
does with monetary policy is baked into
the cake right now because the bottom
line is I mean really to control this
Rising inflation the Federal Reserve
would not only need to delay rate hikes
they would need to rate
rates but they can’t do that I mean that
is uh an
impossibility the markets are already
pricing in rate
Cuts so think about what it means If the
Fed surprise hikes rates I mean it crash
everything bring the whole thing
crashing down I mean if you think 1.6%
GDP growth is bad fedar tiken rates
you’re going to see declining GDP
numbers you’re going to see a massive
recession ushered in and do you really
think they’re going to do that in an
election year I mean there’s no way if
there’s going to be any right hes right
hikes it will have to be after the
election but I don’t even think that
that is in the cards here U you know one
reason is look at what we’re seeing in
the 10-year yield today up to 4.7% I
mean that’s a big move today the the
gain in the yield on the 10-year yield
up
1.24% that’s a huge move in US Treasury
yields we can zoom this out and we can
see that now we’re approaching the highs
that we were getting there in uh October
of 2023 you know the FED started running
its mouth about uh rate Cuts kind of
artificially brought this down now think
people are realizing that inflation is
not what they’ve been led to believe
yields are beginning to creep back up
you know as yields rise or rather as
inflation continues to rise yields also
have to rise but you think about it if
you’re getting uh the underlying
currency debased at a higher rate you
need a higher yield or a higher return
on your loans in order to uh you know
not just be losing purchasing power
because you know we don’t need to look
at nominal rates we need to look at real
rates right which is the rate minus the
rate of inflation that’s not what you’re
actually getting so as inflation
continues to move up you’re going to
continue to see these yields Rising
until the Federal Reserve intervenes now
we’ve got a major banking crisis in this
country you know the regional banks are
all levered up they’re all holding all
of these us treasuries low yielding
treasuries on their balance sheet every
time this number moves up we get closer
to a banking crisis a major banking
crisis the likes of which we saw in
March of 20123 and you remember what
happened to gold and silver back then
prices were absolutely soaring premiums
were soaring everybody was freaking out
well you know as this number continues
to rise we’re getting closer and closer
to a similar
event and the Fed is going to have to
bring out the big guns now another
reason the Federal Reserve ultimately is
going to have to cut and again you’re
starting to see this reflected in the
price of the metals because before you’d
get the hot inflation print Metals would
drop right because people think well now
the FED can’t print I think people are
beginning to understand as you see the
economy Contracting or growing at a
slower rate inflation continuing to rise
the FED is likely to air on the side of
higher inflation it’s typically what
central banks do right their main tool
is inflating so you know as this moves
up keep in mind that the
average yield or the average interest
rate on us interest bearing debt will
continue to rise as well we got the
latest number here from Statia from
March
3.22% this is going to continue to move
higher unless yields on us treasuries
decline right because more and more debt
gets rolled over to the new higher
interest rate and as long as the yield
on us treasuries is above this average
rate the average rate will continue to
rise as more and more Deb gets rolled
over and we get closer to the current
yields now that’s a big problem
because we’ve now got 3
3468 almost 34.7 trillion in debt uh
we’re not even halfway through 2024 yet
and we’re almost at 35 really I mean it
just going to take one or two big
spending packages which seem to just
always uh you know be getting a one
every week or so it’s a couple billion
here you know couple tens of billion for
uh military
aid uh emergency spending bills to keep
the doors of the government open you
know emergency uh debt ceiling increases
because we need to borrow more to pay
the interest on the debt and that’s what
I want to talk about here is the
interest on the national debt so you got
$34.68 3 trillion in debt average
interest rate 3.2% let’s pull up our
calculator here and you can see let’s
just call it
34.6 ion you multiply that by uh
3.22% you can see that now the annual
interest on the US national debt
exceeding 1.1 trillion and this number
is just going to keep getting higher and
higher because the interest rate is
moving up and the absolute debt itself
is increasing right we’re running huge
deficits huge interest payments I mean
this is a recipe for an exponential
surge in debt and interest rates and and
the only way the Federal Reserve really
can control this I mean forget rate Cuts
that’s not going to be enough they’re
going to have to get into the market
reverse quantitative tightening which
they’ve already been slowing down by the
way I mean you know Powell says is
trying to slow down the pace of QT to
avoid a crisis like what happened in
2019 when the Fed was forced to uh you
know uh cut rates and they had a crisis
in the overnight lending mechanism well
he wants to avoid that so he’s slowing
down the pace of QT but pretty soon he’s
going to have to not only stop QT but go
back to quantitative easing and
expanding the FED balance sheet because
the only way that the Federal Reserve
can get this number down the yield on US
debt is to buy up us treasuries to drive
rates down you see that’s how it works
with bonds buying pressure comes in
yields go down if people are selling and
they don’t want the bonds yields go up
because that’s what they have to do to
draw new buyers in so
uh as we see the yields continuing to
rise in light of elevated inflation only
way the FED can help to bolster this
debt addicted economy is to get into the
markets inject liquidity print money
monetize debt and uh that’s what we’re
on the verge of here folks uh that’s why
gold and silver despite the fact that
you’ve got a high inflation printer
basically just flat today while all of
the rest of the markets are deeply in
the red and I think it’s also why you’re
seeing things like uh Newmont mining
beginning to Surge you know their
earnings are beginning to reflect the
higher Metals prices and you got to
understand that when you see the miners
lagging as the metals go up that’s an
indication that investors believe that
the metals prices will not remain
elevated they think that it’s temporary
they’re peaking they’re going to come
down because otherwise you would want to
be buying the miners right a a prolonged
period of elevated Metals prices will
lead to better profits for the minor so
when investors are discounting the
miners they don’t think gold and silver
are going to continue to mooving up well
that’s beginning to change and I think
that investors are beginning just
beginning now to come to their senses
but there’s still an opportunity here
for us I mean we’re lucky that gold and
silver haven’t surged back to the record
highs they
were uh headed towards the bull Trend
the upward trajectory I don’t have the
charts pulled up do another technical
analysis uh live stream soon but they’re
both intact right uh gold hasn’t
breached critical support silver hasn’t
breached critical support given the kind
of data that’s coming out it doesn’t
look like they are going to anytime soon
and all it’s going to take is some
Catalyst whether it be uh a crisis in
the banking sector a geopolitical
incident um you know some Advanced type
of dollarization I don’t know what it’s
going to be but something is is going to
trigger a move higher in the metal soon
and they will resume taking out new
all-time highs and when that happens I
think that some of these derivatives the
miners and such the paper gold and
silver assets these things are really
going to move rapidly and you know they
haven’t really even begun their Ascent
yet I mean numont having a pretty good
day today but a lot of the miners still
just kind of
languishing they’re going to move fast
when gold and silver start to move so uh
you know that’s just kind of sharing
with you what I’m doing I’m getting
exposure to these assets um I’m
continuing to stack physical and I’m
being very circumspect about the data
that comes out you know when you see
1.6% GDP growth and Rising
inflation from the government numbers
themselves you know those numbers are
cooked so the real situation is likely a
lot worse than we are being told and
time is running out to get prepared but
we’re lucky we still do have some time
and I’m going to keep stacking let me
know what you think in the comments down
below stay safe and happy stacking
everybody smart silver stacker out

GDP & Inflation data released today reveals the extent to which the US economy is crumbling under it’s massive debt load in an elevated interest rate environment. Meanwhile, Newmont mining, the world’s largest gold miner saw a massive increase in it’s share price today following blowout earnings. This is giving us a clue about where we are in the Gold & Silver markets, and where miners as well the metals are headed from here.

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