The Price of Truth | tastylive network

The Price of Truth | tastylive network

plus low rates smart Tech with the
analysis tools you need and awardwinning
support so get a broker who’s actually
got your back and up to
$4,000 at tasty trade Make Your Move
genus tasty
[Music]
trade thinker swim will always be my
baby but this one it’s different we
built ours literally from scratch it’s a
much thinner it’s a faster it’s a
Slicker application everything’s on one
page so you’re always looking at the
core page and then bouncing around from
there to get to whatever you want to get
to we’re here to support whatever you’re
looking to do we have the tools that you
need to be a successful
Trader hi I’m Ryan Grace with tasty
crypto and today we’re going to talk
about the Bitcoin
having the having refers to a reduction
in the reward Bitcoin miners receive for
mining Bitcoin when a miner successfully
adds a new block to the blockchain the
minor is rewarded in Bitcoin and today
this reward is 6 and a/4 Bitcoin per
block after the having the mining reward
will be cut in half and miners will only
receive 3 and an eigh Bitcoin per
block this is not the first having the
having is programmed into the Bitcoin
source code and automatically occurs
after every 210,000 block period as new
blocks are added to the chain every 10
minutes Habs occur roughly every four
years and this is all by
Design the having process is a feature
of Bitcoin intended to control inflation
of the cryptocurrency and ensure
long-term security of the network the
having adds a degree of predictability
and stability to the supply of Bitcoin
compared to many Fiat currencies which
are susceptible to abrupt changes in
monetary policy and government
intervention there is no Central
Authority that can manipulate the supply
of Bitcoin it’s pre-programmed over
time this matters to investors is prior
having events have marked the start of
significant price increases for the
cryptocurrency think about it this way
if the rate at which the supply of
Bitcoin is growing gets cut in half and
demand stays the same or increases it
can be quite positive for prices
following prior habings the price of
Bitcoin has risen 5,000% in 2012 1,
1400% in 2016 and 6 15% in 2020 no one
knows what’s going to happen this time
but if it’s anything like the last
having Bitcoin investors could be in for
a bullish
[Music]
ride oh yeah tasty nation good
[Music]
morning need
[Music]
it regulation time may have expired but
the conversation is just getting started
this is overtime the postmarket
scrimmage for Market junkies join Chris
Veo ilas spivac and me Dylan rigan as we
analyze the ex’s and OES for everything
from earnings to politics to macro
events and more nothing’s out of bounds
on overtime we break down the news to
provide you A playbook for your trades
watch overtime Monday through Thursday
only on tasty
live trading is hard enough here’s what
liquidity is you want to be like water
liquidity is in reference to how easily
you can get in and out of a position
from volume to open interest to actual
price at which you can buy or sell your
position it’s important for all Traders
from stock traders to Futures traders to
options Traders or even crypto tight bit
ass spreads at high volume are
characteristics of good
liquidity rock paper
scissors he just play Paper he’ll do it
again no Rock men statistically play
Rock but he played paper and lost and
the mind works in patterns he’s going
scissors he knows I know he’ll go
scissors but knowing I know he
knows Scissors Shoot thought we were
doing Rock Paper Scissors Shoot it’s
always rock paper scissors if you think
like a Trader we’ve got your back tasty
trade join the club genius people are
always asking where can they find my
podcast there it is I’m look at that
option trades today you can listen here
and everybody’s waiting for my podcast
tomorrow option trades today every
Tuesday and Thursday around noon if you
want to learn sir every Tuesdays and
Thursday option trades today you can
find me on YouTube or wherever you find
your podcast option trades today are you
listening to me option trades today
comes out every day around noon every
Tuesday and Thursday you too can stick
with the bat
I know I SW
I how much does it cost you guys to do
simultaneous hair
flips your practi
[Music]
[Music]
yeah
got yeah I got the
bag yeah I got the
[Music]
[Music]
Dear Braden big thanks to you and the
Nerds for the wonderful tech support of
course I back everything up to Cloud
because I’m 69 years old and I know what
a cloud is yours truly
Larry sometimes it feels good to get
smart get even smarter with live trading
insights and some life taunting no your
office is right near the near a
different you’re like closer to
the this is English you should watch him
read from the smart mouths at Tasty
life looking for a better broker and a
bonus sweet we got you right now you can
get a bonus of up to $4,000 when you
open and fund a tasty trade account plus
low rates smart with the analysis tools
you need and awardwinning support so get
a broker who’s actually got your p and
up to
$4,000 at tasty trade Make Your Move
genius tasty trade get a bonus of up to
$4,000 when you open and fund a tasty
trade account make your move genius
tasty trade it feels good to get smart
get even smarter with the the ultimate
how-to guide learn 30
different option strategies cover calls
iron Condors Jade lizards become a
trading Mastermind get the guide at
tasty.com
[Music]
guu oh yeah it is Wednesday April 24th a
little bit after 5:00 pm you know what
that means it’s time for tasty Live’s
all new evening show the price of Truth
little podcast where we’ like to explore
the incentives that govern our world the
ideas to have guests come on great
guests with great minds come on great
ideas today is no different as we’re
going to start to do uh for the month of
May through April is um you know
Wednesdays are going to be Ilia
speedback days Ilia welcome back to the
price of truth how you doing my friend
good uh all is talking about great minds
I’m not sure what I’m doing here but uh
all right I’ll take you’re a gentleman
and a scholar my
friend uh before we get into today’s
market action what you think about Robo
taxis yesterday I had a nice little
conversation with Chris I know you know
you’re not always in the Weeds about
some of the stuff but every once in a
while you’ve been doing some deep study
on things I never would have guessed
what’s your what’s your take on the
whole Tesla to
uh issue from yesterday and their price
action more importantly the future of
Robo
taxes I mean I think kind of broadly
speaking in in in the sort of great
scheme of things uh I get a little bit
of a privileged view on Robo taxis
because I’m in San Francisco and we see
this all the time kind of every day
because we have driverless cars all over
the city at this point um and there was
definitely some back Clash um
around the wayo ones seem to be doing
okay but there was definitely some some
back uh lash where there was there were
accidents they were not seeing
pedestrians they were getting stuck at
Corners that was probably the the most
annoying one where you’d get two move
them at a corner and one Edge is out the
other Edge is out they’re not sure which
one’s going to go and then there’s
there’s deadlock so I think what that
speaks to is the idea
that people are going to need to see
more here before there is a confident
adoption and until there is confident
adoption this isn’t really a thing
that’s going to
be anybody’s Revenue new stream of
substance be it Tesla or anyone else um
this sort of it sort of Echoes crypto to
me in the sense that
like the problem with crypto always from
the Inception was that it was really
volatile and it was really volatile
because it wasn’t liquid and the only
way to get it
liquid was to get more people to believe
but the only way to get people to
believe is to make it less volatile and
so it was this kind of Doom Loop where
to get people to go yes I buy into this
idea you had to get liquid enough to not
be so
jumpy
but you needed people to stomach that
and they didn’t at a mass adoption kind
of level I think you’re going to need
more more confidence building here
before this is something where people
other than you know those of us that
would willingly chip themselves I am not
one of those uh where they would go um
yes I will get into a robo taxi I think
before you scale that to something that
looks like real money on a corporate
balance sheet you’re going to need to do
better and that’s going to be a while
yeah I think I agree with you 100% I
think I heard Jean musk say something
when I was listening to it late last
night of my last night after the show
yesterday where he effectively said even
if you get the car out in a year you
still got to get approvals which means
this isn’t this isn’t any element of
Revenue best case scenario until two
years out and that’s effectively what
you’re playing and if it’s two years out
imps price potentially if it’s three
years out it probably goes for a long
time let’s talk about Market action
today because the market is as you like
to say and many others it’s always what
have you done for me lately they’re
heavy my friend they are heavy a lot a
lot of that has to do with Facebook’s
earnings announcement what was your they
didn’t like
it you know the the the irony and I
reposted this on Twitter formerly
Twitter X now I always get that mixed up
I’m not calling it um Twitter or excuse
me X but yesterday you get Tesla who
completely pukes all over their earnings
expectations they rally 15% from 144 to
160 today you get mad of it blows blows
are numbers away now they’re down 15%
after hours your uh what’s your take
we’ll talk about Facebook here or meta
in just a second but just what was your
take on Market action today broad
speaking equities I thought the market
action made very good sense uh in fact I
was actually talking with Chris about
this on um our show overtime before for
uh today’s session so um talking about
it on um on
Tuesday and I said look I would not be
surprised in fact I think the way that
Wednesday is going to work is we’re g to
open
higher it’s going to be generally
positive in the first half of the day
and in the second half we’re going to
fade and it’s going to get dicey and the
reason it’s going to get dicey is
because the market could care less about
these earnings it’s not about
earnings it’s a it’s a conversation that
is existing and by the way I mean
obviously we’re not saying that that
that individual names don’t care about
earnings I mean obviously look at what
happened with meta stock after they
released like people do care let’s not
let’s not confuse
things but at a macro kind of Market
Market wide NASDAQ level SNP level I
don’t think it’s these earnings that
matter most I think it’s actually a
higher level consideration it’s a it’s
it’s a bigger picture before you want to
decide you know what I’m gonna buy or
not buy Tesla I’m gonna buy or not buy
meta or gold or crude or what
ever you have to decide whether you want
to put money at risk at all on anything
or whether you want to be
defensive
and much of the conversation about
whether markets want to put money at
risk for me going all the way back to
late October early November has been
about the idea that the FED is going to
make money cheaper in the future and so
if you lose money when you put it at
risk you can borrow it back cheaper and
go
again so for me this week the key event
is GDP that’s
tomorrow so my thought was the markets
are going to get through half the day on
Wednesday and say right so we have this
big event risk coming up tomorrow let’s
pump the breaks here let’s back up let’s
get into a kind of defensive Crouch
while we wait for
this data to come out obviously meta
earnings are a big sort of thing and
Chris was hypothesizing on our show
today that it’s the way they guided for
the second quarter that’s the reason for
this for this selloff of course I am no
I am no uh individual stock analyst I I
I don’t profess to be one so I
don’t it sounds right to me that that
that tap
but I think
also when you look at this and you say
here was a big piece of event risk that
the markets needed to get on the other
side of to do what they were going to
do they got on the other side and they
sold off because what they wanted to do
was sell off because what they wanted to
do was get defensive ahead of a GDP
number that might make rate Cuts look
like they’re not coming or at least
might endorse this idea that we’re not
getting three or two we’re getting one
maybe and that this is going to be bad
news for risk-taking as a
whole let me let me like uh let me pick
at this idea because a lot of the
conversations this year have been guided
around Cuts or no Cuts three Cuts seeven
you know six Cuts three cuts two cuts
one cut no cuts a
hike I understand
how help me understand how you’re
thinking about that from an equity
perspective because I can make a case
that stock should do XY or Z in all of
those scenarios they should go up they
should go down in all those scenarios I
give you an example if you’re talking
about hikes into the future you’re
talking about an economy and and you’re
talking about you’re talking about
corporations that were able to are still
able to pass their pricing power on to
Consumers and they’re going to continue
to do that which means increase
corporate
profits
um and I there’s a case where if they’re
cutting good in
theory um for future cost of capital but
it also means that the FED is trying to
get ahead of a Slowdown in the economy
which then means less future revenues so
to me I go all of this cut [ __ ] is noise
I’m not going to pay attention to it
whether it’s a hike they stay or they
end up cutting once or twice to me I got
to throw all that [ __ ] out and just
focus on what I want to do with risk
whether it’s short-term medium-term or
longterm because all of that most of it
is narrative anyway when we came into
the year Ilia you and I I disagree
obviously I I’m I’m I’m gonna open this
up I thought 0% chance this the the
Market is pricing this correctly even
when they got to three I thought 0%
chance I think there’s a chance that
they cut once to open up their range and
see what happens but other than that I
don’t think anybody knows including them
what do you think about what I just said
how to position whether or not people
should care and put so much emphasis on
one or two cuts and whether that’s the
fulcrum for whether they should be
taking risk or not so here’s the problem
with all of that
you can always spin any narrative about
anything and so the way that I look and
so the way that I look at macro is not
from that perspective as a general
consideration I look at the price action
because what I want is for the market to
tell me what it cares
about so for me it’s not
about whether I can rational ize that
rate cuts are good or rate cuts are bad
because I can rationalize both sides
okay it’s how is the market
responding and what it backward looking
is always going to be backward
looking for the market to tell well that
that is the difference between reacting
to price action or thinking okay this is
what the market this is how the market
is responding aren’t you always in a
position where you’re sort of a little
bit behind the curb not at all what
you’re doing is you’re letting the
market reveal to you the lens through
which it looks at
things you’re letting the market tell
you I care about this I don’t care about
that and
so I like to um in a bit of a cheeky way
perhaps uh call this the does does the
market care about Italian elections
indicator because every few years there
is some upheaval in Italy and there’s a
government collapse and sometimes the
markets go oh my God it’s an Italian
government collapse and sometimes they
go it’s an Italian government collapse
this happens off good
enough
and the difference where they care or
where they don’t is do they want to take
risk or do they not care that there is a
risk because they think they can paper
over that risk and even if they lose
money it won’t matter so you can even
have the same exact event
occur and markets can care or not care
this is why looking at the price action
and how different markets especially in
conjunction respond can tell you what
the markets care about and it can be
very different and and they can care or
not care about the same thing depending
on
atmospherics so for me I look at the the
the NASDAQ chart here is
perfect where is the bottom on this
chart and where is the Fed meeting on
November the 1st where they say we are
done raising rates the next move is
going to be a
cut it’s at the bottom of this
rally pretty much exactly at the bottom
of this
rally where is the top in this
rout it’s March the
21st the day after the FED says we’re
still looking at three
Cuts literally the next
day so how how do you then look at this
rally well if you look at the way this
has evolved and this is a chart that um
I’ve been putting up on macro money for
for like four or five months now what
you see is the Fed comes out on November
the 1 and says rate Cuts every everyone
we’re done
hiking Market goes oh
great you start a
rally fed doesn’t quantify how many Cuts
they’re thinking about until late
December which is the next meeting where
they update their official uh summary of
economic projections so the markets go
wild they go out to six
Cuts then there’s a Fed meeting it’s
late Christmas is like two days later by
that point nobody’s paying attention so
we get into the beginning of January
with six cuts which I completely agree
with you sounds
bananas and the economic data starts
coming in and the market go okay um data
is better some of it is surprising on
the upside okay jobs is surprising on
the upside okay inflation is showing up
hotter all right let’s start to chip
away at these at these cuts and we go
from six to five to four to
three but the entire time we are more
Cuts than the FED is saying until we get
to less and the day that we get to less
the day that the outlook for the year as
it is baked into fed funds Futures is 61
basis points and not 62 is the day the
rally
stops what happens at
61 basis points the probability of that
third cut is less than
50% so the markets flip and say the
fed’s wrong
since then we’ve had a wild sell off and
what H and what have the uh expectations
done they’ve gone to 33 basis points
that’s one cut and some optionality
limited on a
second in that time we’ve had the
breakout of two Wars we’ve had every
which different piece that you could
construct a narrative around the AI boom
this or that the the markets have
Shrugged off everything until there is a
change in the cost of
money because what that defines is
whether you want to take risk at all of
any kind on
anything so I look at the price action
and I say well clearly they
care fast forward to this
week on Tuesday we get a weak
us uh PMI number really weak much weaker
than expected four-month
low the instant that data comes out that
second the FED Outlook shifts to a more
doish setting by just four basis
points stocks rally across the board the
dollar gets smashed and that carries
through until basically midday uh in
today’s session Tesla happened in the
interim of other earnings came out in
the nobody
cares the second that weak number came
out and gave them four more basis points
and cuts just
four they responded
instantaneously so I look at the price
action and I say well I don’t need to
spin
narratives I can just look at what the
market is doing the Market’s going to
tell me what it cares
about that’s all
there’s some part of me that still wants
to challenge not because I disagree with
what you’re saying but because I like
this thread we’re pulling up let me give
you challenge challenge I love it let me
say Okay so let’s say this bro this
rally was highly concentrated you and I
both know this and I’m I’m not disputing
that
obviously I agree entirely I’m not I’m
not disputing that there was a change in
in the FED narrative but man the older I
get the more I the more I believe those
guys are just you know there just just a
bunch of people have no idea what’s
going on that are trying to to to spin a
narrative like they’re like they’re
running [ __ ] but they’re not that the
older I get that’s the impression I get
about everything it’s the impression I
get about our government the Federal
Reserve all these people act like they
have some sense of control or some sense
of ultimate knowledge about the future
about where we are and they don’t know
anything so let me let me let me give
you another part not only did you have a
supportive liquidity environment as
you’re mentioning but let’s also
say
uh uh Nvidia was adding 200 billion
dollars in in um market cap and on a
one- day basis and they were doing that
sure was there a supportive liquidity
environment absolutely but were they
also adding billions in in current and
future expected revenues to their
forecast absolutely did you have the
same thing with meta did they also at
the same time while giving
uh supportive current and future
guidance until now were they also adding
were they also adding
um do they also make their stock very
attractive for institutional investors
by creating that dividend absolutely did
they also start speaking to the street
about cost cutting and get off this
stupid metaverse thing with they
incinerating money absolutely what I’m
what I’m basically saying to you is in
the last six months-ish
um you’ve had a supportive liquidity
environment but I could also make the
case for you GDP has been well above
Trend I can make the case to you that
we’ve gone from up you know six s%
inflation all the way down to the 3% now
we’re getting sticky in terms of
inflation so there’s I would say that
the FED narrative has overlaid to a
portion of the economy that also
outperformed low lower expectations
you’ve had uh disinflation during that
entire period I can make the case to you
what what I’m basically saying is I can
give you a fundamental case for why this
was a good risk-taking window that had
nothing to do with what the Federal
Reserve was doing what how do you
respond to that oh emphatically that’s
how I respond to it um so the idea that
that the FED thinks themselves preent or
all powerful I think is fundamentally
not anything they would ever say not
anything they would ever claim not
anything they have suggested certainly
not in any iteration of the FED let’s
call it from Ben banki onward because
that’s where I’ve been listening to them
personally uh and directly um greenpan
is a little bit before my time and he
was famously cryptic and before
Greenspan I make no claims uh but as at
least since Bernan the FED would never
even begin to
suggest any kind of prience or power or
anything
ever that’s one thing but that’s neither
here nor
there what even if they did I don’t care
what the FED thinks about themselves I
care about what drives asset markets
because I’m trying to make money Trading
whether the FED thinks themselves
powerful and they are or they’re not or
they don’t think themselves powerful and
they are or are not is entirely
Irrelevant for
me what’s relevant for me is do the
markets look at the FED as powerful do
they pay attention to what they’re doing
is it
shaping the way that markets respond to
news to the price action and what can I
infer from that to see okay if they get
news X they might reply
with response
y that’s it I don’t care what the FED
thinks about themselves or whether they
are powerful or aren’t powerful how they
see
themselves doesn’t
matter so
now to the fundamental
structure has the disinflation
changed no
inflation hasn’t gone anywhere in
months it’s been basically static why
did Market why did markets
turn did GDP slow down in a untour below
Trend
way
no why did markets
turn did we see anything about the AI
narrative that has become
less hopium that we
believe
no just we were willing to believe the
hopium before we’re not willing
apparently to believe it
now of course it was concentrated
because it was concentrated in the names
where what the market was betting on was
the great and bright potential future
we have no idea actually when this stuff
is going to make money when it can be
scaled globally when these hypothetical
efficiency gains are going to maybe
happen we have no
idea but what we were willing to do as
markets was to
believe why were we willing to
believe because taking a role of the
dice made sense if a loss could be
borrowed back
cheaper and we no longer are willing to
do that Zuckerberg was out there saying
H just so you guys know um it might be
like to 2050 until we actually see any
economic benefits to the scalability of
AGI just in the past 24 hours I’ve been
saying it longer because even if we have
the technology
let’s say we have the great we’ve we’ve
invented
Skynet let’s
say okay before before Skynet is
scalable we need to figure out how we’re
going to get enough Cobalt for one how
we’re going to get enough inputs for all
of this we don’t know how we’re going to
do that no idea we have no idea even if
we’ invented it and we haven’t
so the the essence of all of this was
always hope and excitement at the
prospect at the possibility and people
were willing to do that other things be
damned
why because the liquidity environment
was shaping up such that it made sense
to take a
flyer and it doesn’t anymore
if all of these things about GDP and
disinflation and blah blah blah blah
blah blah blah if all of that was the
thing we wouldn’t have such a
concentrated rally we’d have a broad
rally because what we would have is the
tide that lifts all boats a real upswell
in fundamental strength in the economy
did we have that
no we had a concentrated rally in those
names where you had to be amongst the
faithful and extrapolate in your mind’s
eye that we’re going to get to benign
Skynet
tomorrow that’s a liquidity
environment as a catalyst let me let me
pull this right from a different
direction I said my friend let me pull
it from a different
direction I started I’m 38 years old
right now I started you and I are very
close yeah I started when I was 20 20
years old January of
2007 perfect timing yeah
yeah
so
um I’ve never really
seen this cost of capital I’ve never
really TR meaningfully traded through it
I might have like in the early days I
might have been throwing some money down
on some call Sprints here and there but
like I’ve never really meaningfully
traded through this cost of capital and
I’m being humble about that oh me too
not only have I never traded through
that environment I’ve never traded
through inflation above 3% and and you
know I think macro Al has put out a lot
of good stuff and this was in a
conversation we had with jeim Caron a
really long time ago that when you get
higher levels inflation your stock Bond
correlations completely flip they go
positive and we’ve seen that stocks go
up Yi go up and people are sort
scratching their head because remember
in
2022 when yields go up and it demolishes
stocks well you’ve got a different
environment now I’m being super humble
about the fact that I’m now trading an
environment I’ve never actually seen
I’ve only seen it in my data mining and
uh my research and in textbooks so sure
so let me ask the question a little bit
differently what is it how is it that
you are approaching markets today that
is different than IL and Victor having a
conversation in 2021 or in 2011 or in
you know how is it how are you
approaching markets differently how are
you adjusting to signals in the market
or are you not at all well so this is
really the essence of the way that I
think about macro which is what we were
just talking about
is I am not trying to
predict what I’m trying to do is let the
markets tell me what they care
about and the price action lens becomes
absolutely critically
important because what I need to
understand
isn’t if the macro does this you know if
inflation does this then I’m looking for
that if uh the cost of capital shifts if
if if credit spreads do this and and the
the liquidity environment looks this way
versus that how I need to respond I
don’t need in my view to predict those
things nor is it
possible because if you look
historically there’s been all kinds of
different periods I mean if you if you
read Doo’s great um book on um the
history of economics crisis if you look
at um Howard Marx’s great book which one
the Deb debt cycles that we talking
about yeah yeah yeah if you look at
Howard Marx’s great book mastering the
market cycle which I think is actually
Superior because it’s a little bit more
concise more clear less kind of
wanding um in the way it’s written um I
like both I’ve I’ve read D’s other book
as well U principles um so I like doio
um I like his stuff um I think Howard
Marx in sort of this conversation did a
more effective job in my opinion for me
as as as like a Hands-On thing I’m
reading a book now from the great Ron
Cherno the guy that wrote um Hamilton
the guy that wrote The Great biography
on ulyses as Grant about the history of
the House of Morgan JP Morgan and all of
the
incredible tomal in US Financial
history through that
lens is that the two volume book or is
Nile Ferguson Neil Ferguson’s the two I
think n Ferguson is the is the two Neil
this one Neil Nile I don’t know uh I
don’t know Engish is my second language
I I profess no no uh no no great
knowledge
um as uh as as the Great Sea price
famously said I work so hard to be this
stupid uh
so
so the
uh the market inter relationships change
all the
time they wax they Wayne things
change different things Echo into to
each other so for me the price Act
has to be where you jump off from and so
what I do is I look at the
incoming flow of information macro data
geopolitical developments big picture
stuff and then I look at okay what are
stocks doing what’s gold doing what’s
crude oil doing what are bonds and rates
doing what are the major G5 G10
currencies doing
and then I look
for
themes but the themes have to come from
the price action I’m not attempting to S
sit there and go well if this happens
then this is going to happen this is
going to happen instead I say when this
happened stocks did this and bonds did
this and rates did this and currencies
did this and commodities did that what
world would we have to be living in
where that would
occur and what does then that lay out
say about if we then got this piece of
news here or that piece of news there if
this is the architecture if this is the
lens how would markets take the
input inserted into this framework what
would probably come out
so for me the price action itself is a
kind of dynamic recalibrating of the
macro lens all the
time I’m gonna ask you one more followup
we’re 45 minutes in and I haven’t gone
simple by simple but this is sometimes
you and I we get into these sort of I
would call philosophical discussions
which I enjoy hopefully the audience is
enjoying as well but I promise all of
you want to see us go symbol by symbol I
will do that with the last 10 minutes of
the show or so sure um when I hear you
talk about risk generally speaking it’s
always sort of this I can I can always
tell you the time frame you know it’s
always sort of like dayby byday week to
week type of time frame whereas I I
never I’ve never heard you say um
generally speaking I think risk is heavy
this week or I’m going to take with
short-term capital I’m G to bet against
the market or I’m going go long dollars
or I’m going to bet against the NASDAQ
however stock XYZ
or commodity XYZ is so bombed out at
this level I think there’s good risk
reward over a longer term what I’m
saying is me I’m
managing for me and my family different
time frames of capital and that can be
confusing for an audience for me to say
hey I’ve got these miners or I’ve got
FCX or I’ve got these uh drone stocks or
uranium stocks because I think about
these long-term potentials over a 20
year investing Horizon 5 10 20 years and
these things are cheap I don’t know what
they’re going to do in the next two
weeks but they’re cheap enough for me to
start nibbling also this is what I’m
doing on my portfolio over the top in
terms of short-term risk that’s how I
think that’s how I talk it can be
confusing I think for the audience but I
think most people have gotten how I’ve
how I do it by now I don’t hear you talk
in multiple time frames why is that is
that for to make it simple content to
consume or is that because you were just
generally you’re trading all your
capital in one in one way I’m definitely
not I have a I have a diverse city of
ways that I do it um and it’s very
similar to what you’re talking about so
I have what I would bucket out as
essentially three buckets one is a
passive bucket where I’m not
Hands-On I have Capital there it’s
basically a version of
optimized beta and that’s sort of of the
30-year Buy and Hold positive drift
idea I have a second bucket that is what
you’re talking about things that I think
are kind of generational opportunities
cyclical opportunities kind of big swing
ideas over five 10
years but that’s not active
trading so what I usually talk about in
this
context is tactical active participation
in
markets and there my time Horizon can be
months if I get the right idea in fact
because I have a maccro kind of view on
things my
ideal position like the the trades where
I tend to make my money they tend to run
four weeks 6
weeks where as the trades where um I
lose money I try to cut off on
average one and a half weeks two weeks
maybe and and I’m not cutting him off
because they’ve elapsed that time that’s
just how it tends to look once I look
back at the numbers I go well my losers
have an average holding period of one to
two weeks my winners have an average
holding period of four to six
weeks so that’s the way I approach the
sort of more tactical Hands-On like I
want to be a Trader of the Euro or the
dollar or NASDAQ or SN S&P now that’s
sort of the the Hands-On part of it but
I absolutely do the same thing there’s
just not much to say let’s say about um
cannabis I’ve owned cannabis ETFs
forever they’ve done nothing but syn
anytime I see anything that looks like
an opportunity to add some I add
some I have they think except an
election year you ever notice that in
election and Midterm years uh for the
last four years you know surprisingly
there’s like always some rumors about
you know well well the Biden
Administration seems to actually be
trying to do something and but I think
trying bro there’s not the political
Capital 70% of Americans
I think there is but there’s but that’s
me I I’m not in the room but they’re
getting they’re getting closer than
anybody I’ve heard until now but but of
course Marco Pap pitch um wrote a book
on this called geopolitical Alpha and he
talks about this this idea called the
median voter and says that politics
reflects the opinion of the median voter
even in
non-democratic societies because you can
only prevent the pitchforks from so long
so you still have to respond to the
median voter the median voter on the
Cannabis issue has obviously moved
tremendously in the past let’s call it
10 20 years so here’s an idea where I’m
going to accumulate and accumulate and
accumulate and accumulate and one day
it’s going to look like Amazon
stock but and until that day
I have it it’s unleveraged it’s sitting
there it’s a thematic idea am I actively
going in and out of MJ or msos good Lord
no uh all right man let’s go simple by
by the way I’m in a country right now
where um the penalty for for uh
smuggling in marijuana or Distributing
marijuana is death it’s automatic death
smelling the fumes from across the
street might catch you uh into some
trouble by hanging by the way like it’s
no peaceful like lethal injection either
no old school with it they want you to
know it’s funny when I first arrived in
in Bali which was obviously not in sing
in the airport that says it’s death
penalty for anybody that brings drugs
into Bali and so I take a picture of the
poster and then then notice the next
poster right under it is no
[Laughter]
pictures my favorite sign here my
favorite sign here is the no trespassing
sign what’s I don’t I forget what the no
trespassing sign is in the States but
here like two stick figures right the
first stick figure’s got his hands up
like this and the second figure is an
authority is like an authority figure
behind the person who’s got his hands up
with like an automatic rifle bullets
coming out of
it like you trespass we shoot you it’s
hilarious for so many reasons because
it’s so aggressive but it’s also like
whoever that was had already surrendered
and still they’re being shot in the all
right let’s keep going man uh let’s talk
bonds for just a second we talked last
week about them we’ve only got a we’ve
only got a couple minutes so actually
we’re going to do this rapid fire let’s
go give me your give me your thoughts on
two the twos and the 10 uh do any of the
levels there or the price action look
interesting to you they’ve been they’ve
been basically flat man they haven’t
gone a anywhere in the last week and a
half yeah in a word no I mean I there’s
nothing that’s going on here that gets
me excited so I thought that maybe um
last week there were some signs of
bottoming we’ve not overturned the those
signs but we’ve also not actually start
at the bottom and so this is basically a
flatline nothing’s going on get me north
of 108 on
ZN maybe to like 10820 something like
that I get more interested because at
least again the price action is telling
me markets want to actually do something
but
here who knows there’s nothing here that
to me says there is an active
directional thing that’s occurring with
follow through potential either
way I am just for the record you’re more
than welcome everybody listening or
watching on demand I’m along the 10
years which I it’s totally non-consensus
right now I think a lot of people think
that the 10 years is going to continue
to drift lower meaning rates are going
to go higher and that 5% you know we’ve
got a date of Destiny to that 5% level
in the 10 year we’re currently at like
4.6% in fairness though for people I do
have I’ve had this position on for the
last two weeks and what I do is I buy
the weekly like um kind of at the money
or slightly on the money puts as a head
to the position which lets me sleep at
night to hold the long Futures here and
a lot of people would say well that’s
just a synthetic long call why don’t you
just get long calls and I would say stay
out of my
business um no I’m with you actually I
think I think there’s there’s a greater
chance we bounce than than crack lower
but I’m not willing to put my money
where my mouth is here until the price
action actually shows me something yeah
my my my my idea behind that is it if
they are positively correlated then I’ve
got a long stock portfolio and if the
tenure goes lower what has been the
typical correlation is stocks kind of
have drifted higher even though that’s
sort of counterintuitive but that has
what has happened lately to me my friend
about currencies uh we’ve gone you know
this is like obviously it’s your
specialty especially when compared to to
myself so help me understand how you’re
thinking about dollars here well so last
week obviously the dollar had a big run
um I was in it it it it was great
because stocks were falling and we had
this kind of liquidation and the money
as as ever went to cash and what’s the
cash of
in a liquidation it’s the most liquid
form of cash it’s dollars so I’m looking
at this and going well if I think that
stock markets are now biased lower then
I think the dollar is biased higher and
the reason I think it’s biased higher
and stocks are biased lower is the same
reason the FED is going to out Hawk all
the other central banks here that’s not
good for risk appetite and bad for
stocks it is however good for the US
dollar I’m out of it now um again at the
start of the week I cleared out of
almost ev Everything I took a little bit
of a flyer being long the Canadian
dollar as a little counter Trend um
thing um I took a little bit of money
out of it um I got out today
anticipating GDP tomorrow uh and so I’m
looking at this here and thinking I want
to be short 6E want to be short 6B the
British bound I probably want to be
short
6C the Canadian dollar I just need for
the price action to actually show me
that it’s go
time so at this point for example if I’m
looking at um 6E it’s right at
critical resistance here it’s testing
the underside of the the range that it
had since December it cracked it last
week it’s retesting it now right around
like 10715 10720 or so I see it turn
back from this and get let’s say back
under 10680 or something like that I’m
short I look at 6B and it’s a similar
story I had a great run being short this
from about
12630 I see it now coming back in into
retest 125
12530 I see it
lose here and get back under let’s say
124 and change having tested 125 and
come back I’m short so I want to be long
dollars I just want the market to tell
me
when uh what does that mean there’s an
implicit view of what that means uh for
commodity
M but uh I want to ask I want to ask the
question explicitly do you have risk
deployed on the downside for any of
these dollar based Commodities or you
you rather deploy your risk in dollars
but not necessarily have a position
let’s say in the downside of crude oil
downside of gold the downside of silver
downside of copper like how are you
playing all those Commodities silver and
copper are a little bit too volatile for
me most of the time for the kind of
approach that I take they’re a little
too jumpy so I usually stay away unless
something really kind of Screams and I
haven’t touched that yet
um I’ve G out I’ve gone out with you
you’re an absolute animal you mean to
tell me high beta silver too much risk
for you absolutely not I’ve seen you
knock them back with the best of them
and you’re a rapper in your spare time
you mean to tell me you can’t handle the
the beta of silver give me a break
silver so my trading hack
and my Scotch consumption hat are
different
hats uh they’re different hats um so I
look at this and I say okay um as a
manager of my
portfolio silver is usually a little
extra for me um although I am getting a
little curious here uh on on gold we
talked about this that’s if I was going
to take a bet on the medals it would be
there
um long or
short I want to be long a
pullback rather than short
here I I think that there is a pullback
here maybe back down to 2100 or
something like this as we get into the
gravitational pool of next week’s fed
meeting and then into the June fed
meeting I think the longer term story
here is is is China accumulating a
ridiculous amount of gold reserves and
by my back of the envelope math that’s
not a thing that goes away until maybe
early next year so I think and because
the way Gold’s behaving has nothing to
to do with all of its normal catalysts
at all in fact it’s decoupled from uh
the trend in GLD ETF Holdings for the
first time in like over a decade so
something something’s different is going
on and the only thing that that I can
find mind is China is absolutely plowing
reserves into gold so I mean the pace is
nuts 11% year on year is the growth rate
in Chinese gold reserves it’s I mean
they’re buying as much as they can so I
think you get a pullback here as they
kind of take their their foot off the
gas a little recently and it or at least
that’s what looks like looking at the
price
action it’s very difficult for gold to
ignore a hawkish Fed even episodically
for a week or two so you get slammed
back down and that’s where I want to be
a buyer I’m getting interested and
tempted to maybe sell some here but I’m
trying to talk myself out of it and
trying to say you know what just buy
dollars don’t fight the
PB um and on crew rude crude is this
weird animal here where I can’t find you
a good reason why it should be up here
for any of the geopolitical reasons or
the supply demand reasons all of it is
kind of hypothetical fear of fear itself
like yeah there’s two draw in
inventories today yeah but that’s a
weekly number I mean like we’ve been
rallying in crude since the beginning of
the year and the country is a wash
inly the spread between WTI and the
European Benchmark Brent crude is pinned
around the $ five level where it’s been
since
2013 what
disruption there is no disruption Supply
to Europe is fine the Red Sea thing is
not doing anything the uh Ukraine thing
isn’t doing anything
Europe has oil so why is it up here is
it up here because the global economy is
accelerating no so why is it up
here it seems to be up here because of
well at least the only thing I can come
up with is the hypothetical idea that
with these two Wars in critical choke
points for crude something could happen
so we’re going to put some
a premium
on
if
something and
so it’s just a weird macro story that
doesn’t lend itself in my mind to kind
of to being assessed in a reasonable way
so I’m keeping my hands off this now if
I want General exposure I’ll buy some
dollars um I’ll short some Canadian uh
dollars uh and and sort of keep it like
that until gold gives me something to do
uh on the long
side provide I can talk my I can
continue to talk myself out of selling
some which I hope I can yeah I am I
happen to get lucky on that gold turn uh
you know I’d probably been short gold
the commodity not the miners probably
that weak week early so I caught the
turn the day when medals were weak
silver specifically I think we were down
maybe three4 of a percent maybe half
percent I tried to get something out of
the money puts and silver and you know
they always say do you want the do you
want the penny or do you want the
position right I [ __ ]
around later that day Silver’s down 4%
and has not come back I was just like
kicking myself I’m making money on the
gold thing or at least hedging the minor
risk but it’s just like ah that would
have been ah I’d be buying you steak
right now if I if I you know went for
the position instead of the penny OT
it’s always fun my friend uh you know
last week we had a lot of fun and we
decided the format like to go back and
forth like this is uh it’s interesting
especially in these types of markets
where the market kind of was in a Range
until after the close where meta came
out there’s not much new you know news
flow to really talk about or not much
changing Dynamics in macro on a
day-to-day basis so was a bit of a fun
discussion if people want more from you
OT tell them where they can go as ever
uh macro money is a show that I do where
I nerd out on this stuff every Monday
through Thursday right before that is
overtime with myself Chris and Dylan
rigan where we look at the Wall Street
close and try to figure out what it
might mean and why we got to where we
got um I’m obviously here now on
Wednesdays which I love I love having
these big philosophical
conversations um I think it’s great um
I’m on with Chris for futures power hour
on Fridays um it’s usually a good time
to look at um us uh data that might have
come out that morning especially NFP um
I’m on uh we’re both on uh with
um with Tom and Pete and the the gang
for first call on Sundays we looking at
the apack open my favorite time of the
week where I think all of my big ideas
for the week um I’m writing for tasty
live.com news and insights section I’m
opining sporadically on the former
Twitter machine at ilas
BAC my man it’s always a pleasure these
conversations are always fun and
enlightening for my perspective I
appreciate both your time as well as you
sharing your knowledge I look forward to
next week for everybody out there do us
a favor before you get out of here hit
the like button subscribe to the channel
if youve not already leave us a comment
on your way out of the door on the video
tell us what you think the rest of the
earning season or how it’s going to
shape up whether you’re long or short
bullish or bearish and over what time
frame I promise you we do read them and
we appreciate all the comments till next
time I’ve been Victor Jones I’m beac
another episode of the price of true
till next time
peace e

tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.
Earn up to $4,000* when you open and fund a tastytrade account. https://info.tastytrade.com/tasty-offer?utm_source=115&utm_medium=organic_video&utm_campaign=tiered_2023

Guest: Ilya Spivak(@IlyaSpivak)

======== tastylive.com ========

tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we’ll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran.

Subscribe to our Second Channel: @tastylivetrending
Check out more options and trading videos at www.tastylive.com!

Follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/tastyliveshow
Check out our Instagram: instagram.com/tastyliveshow

*Cash bonus amount varies by deposit amount which must be maintained in your account for 12 months. The $4,000 bonus offer is available with a $500,000 to $999,999 deposit. Offer not valid for existing clients who have funded or previously funded an account. Must be 18+ and a U.S. resident. Offer expires 03/31/2024. Click here or visit info.tasytrade.com/tasty-offer for full terms, conditions, and restrictions. tastytrade, Inc. is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC.

tastytrade has entered into a Marketing Agreement with tastylive (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade. tastytrade and Marketing Agent are separate entities with their own products and services. tastylive is the parent company of tastytrade.