How Long This Bitcoin Cycle Will Last – You’ll Be SHOCKED!

How Long This Bitcoin Cycle Will Last – You’ll Be SHOCKED!

[Music]
so here we are at the end of you could
say another crazy week in Bitcoin two
big pieces of news this week the first
thing is that the GDP numbers were lower
at the same time the inflation numbers
were higher and risk assets didn’t
really like that the next thing is we’ve
had the first week in Bitcoin where
we’ve had two days of no inflows to the
Black Rock ETF and as you can see when
you look at the market the market
doesn’t really like this and so we keep
going into the sideways range and the
big question is whether we’re going to
break up or down I’ve heard some people
say that this could actually be the end
of the bull market but today’s guests
are telling me that this is not the end
of the bull market in fact it’s the
beginning of a 10year Bitcoin bull
market believe it or not 10 years not
four years like we normally get but
actually 10 years so today the show is
all about why we could be at the
beginning of a 10year Bitcoin bull
market you like that well then smash the
like button and let’s [ __ ] go guys
imagine a 10year bull market wouldn’t
that be amazing after all these fouryear
bull markets or threeyear these fouryear
Cycles wouldn’t it be amazing if we just
got a 10-year bull market I I’d love
that I I just don’t know what I’d buy at
the end of the 10-year bull market what
I’d do with all my cash cash let me know
in the chat what you guys would do with
your cash anyway so today it’s all about
the 10year bull market I got a massive
Friday banter for you I got two new
guests here both Bitcoin maximalists but
they’re going to give us like a big big
big view of why they think we’re going
into a 10-year bull market just before
we get into the the the Friday banter I
do want to talk to you about a few
things that are happening and I think
are really really really important for
you guys to understand the first thing
is I don’t know if you guys saw this but
now the SEC is being sued over um
ethereum and they actually being sued by
consensus so the SEC is going into war
with consensus now why why is this so
important well consensus is the company
that manufactur the wallet that’s called
metamask and we all use metamask now the
one thing that could happen when
consensus go to court with metamask is
that in the process called Discovery the
SEC may just ask them for a whole list
of users and specifically users using
wallets in the US with us IP addresses
and I’ve be worried about this for a
long time
I’ve been really worried that in the
spat between crypto and the US
authorities the us is going to start
looking for the US users and the one way
they’re going to start looking for the
US users was actually by looking at IP
addresses and unfortunately metamask
does keep a record of all this in fact
every defi application keeps a record of
it and in the process of discovery
they’re going to have to hand over the
documents so I keep saying this I keep
saying that if you’re in crypto and you
are surfing without a VPN you’re
absolutely crazy because what a VPN does
is it it hides your IP address so you
can see like no I’m not using a VPN
because I’m using a A Company Computer
but you can see that this VPN knows
exactly where I am so if I was in the US
it would say us New York and give the IP
address and then consensus would have to
hand it over I really believe guys that
what you should be doing is that you
should be surfing with a VPN anything
you do in crypto should be done with a
VPN as a minimum make sure that you’re
hiding your IP address and it’s so
simple to use a VPN it really is I want
to just show you how easy it is to use a
VPN all you do is you decide where you
want to surf from and I’ll show to you
over here let me just quickly show that
to you so you can see how easy it is to
use a VPN because a lot of people are
are like intimidated like how do we use
a VPN Etc let’s let’s quickly just find
the VPN you click which country you want
to pretend you’re from click it and
that’s where they think you’re from and
all this you actually get for get this
get this for like $ a month not even I
think it’s I think it’s less than $3 a
month $2.98 a month guys please we’re
getting into the final showdown between
all the authorities and crypto don’t get
caught out in the last 100 meters of the
race protect yourself with a VPN and
once you’ve got a VP and get this thing
called threat protection because this
protects you against those malicious
websites that make you think they other
websites and land up draining their
wallets we’re going to make a lot of
money in the bull market guys you want
to keep your money go to the bottom of
this video click here click here click
here pay the $6 a month support the
channel support our sponsor and make
sure that you don’t get caught out all
right with that in mind I think we need
to get into the action of the day the
10year bull market and I know that this
has been a rough week a bit of a
terrifying week I mean we moved sideways
we got bad economic data for the first
time we got news that black rocks ETF
brought in zero Bitcoin on on a on a
certain day and it does feel like maybe
this is the end of the bull market is
this the end of the bull market let’s
get the guests in let’s get everybody
let’s start talking about this we got
two massive Bitcoin guest we got Fred we
got James with us guys welcome to Banter
um quite quite a tricky week I mean we
had uh we had a couple of data points
this week which the market didn’t like I
think the first data point that the
market didn’t like was we got economic
data and the economic data showed that
the GDP was down which is kind of what
everybody wanted everybody wanted the
GDP down so pal could then loosen
interest rates but then that was paired
with higher pce which means that the the
the the cons the inflation the producer
inflation is starting to go up how what
do you make of this data James I know
you had some views around around the
data that came out yeah so I mean this
is just the Classic um beginnings of
what we would see in in a stagflation
environment right so if we start to see
job losses it will uh it will also U
indicate that we’re heading into
stagflation the problem is that with our
government spending so recklessly and
running up massive deficits at a time
when we are not even in a recession yet
that uh it creates this issue for the
the fed and the treasury that if the FED
If the Fed lowers rates and uh tries to
battle that the inflation uh coming down
you know or it tries to battle uh the uh
GDP coming down and and stimulating the
economy then you could uh he could just
spur on more inflation and so that’s
problematic we saw this in in the 70s
and 80s Fred and I lived it um and for
those people who don’t understand uh you
know it’s it’s they’re in a position
that they just can’t win and so uh back
in the 80s we saw the federal debt go
from like 300 billion to three TR
and
so so this is they’re they’re in a
pickle we we are currently in that
crisis of a debt spiral and the only
thing that that can kind of help it a
little bit along the way is to allow for
high Perpetual inflation but they can’t
let the inflation get out of control and
we’re kind of pressed right up against
that so what does what does the FED do
and because the treasury is just going
to continue to facilitate all the the
spending out of Congress that’s where we
are okay so hold on before we go to Fred
uh if you were sitting at the FED right
now and you were at the position where
inflation seems to be sticky hasn’t gone
away the debt is climbing like crazy the
GDP is dropping what would be your next
move as as pile what would what would be
your next move and when would you make
it I would do nothing right now I would
leave rates where they are and and uh
and just see where the data comes in
because you you’re damned if you do
you’re Damned you don’t if he lowers
rates inflation could rage right but if
he keeps them where they are and and our
unemployment numbers are where they are
which are they’re they’re not exactly
the way they look I’ll let Fred I’ll te
Fred up for this one uh for the
unemployment and the employment numbers
but um you know that’s the problem is
that if if I if I raise rates I could
crush employment I could crush the
economy Crush GDP if I lower them I
could let inflation run out of control
but if I leave them where they are right
now I can get more data in and see if it
helps the picture Fred what do you think
I mean if you what do you think of this
economic data that came in first of
all we can’t hear Fred uh I Fred’s
muted okay first of all I agree
completely with h James right so I I
think we’re in this kind of is starting
to look like a stagflation uh
environment uh with the one big dis
distinction between the 70s is that
debts of GDP in the 70s was like 30%
right exactly and also the other big
difference is the demographic uh mix was
a lot different right we had a lot
younger population a lot younger
Workforce in 1975 than we do in 2024
right so we we’re an aging
population uh and and so asset inflation
wasn’t so important like houses and such
correct asset inflation was not that
important and the other thing is if you
think about social security right
everybody Social Security was not so so
much a looming problem in 1975 because
you had this sort of younger people who
were just starting to contribute to
Social Security right and now we’re
running into this situation where this
aging population that’s going to be typ
that’s going to be uh you know taking
advantage of these you know uh mandated
entitlements and Social Security so this
is we’ve got a lot of headwinds right
now um that I don’t think we had in the
70s yeah I mean it’s a really important
Point um we are we are in it’s like uh
i’ I’ve heard it described as the the
pin has been pulled the grenade has been
thrown in the room because you’ve got
this aging population right where we
have 34.6 trillion dollar of debt this
is a major issue everybody knows about
we’ve talked about it but another issue
that Fred brings up is really important
here is that this aging population is
going to start drawing from those
benefits massively and so that pin has
been pulled and so the 200 I think it’s
210 plus trillion dollar of unfunded
liabilities they’re coming due that
check is that that that check’s being
cashed those those are coming due and we
have to pay that how are we going to pay
that how are we going to continue to to
perpetuate this by just issuing more
debt print more money money printer you
eventually have to yeah you’ll have to
print more money because you’re going to
have to monetize that debt in in in
periods of stress we’ve seen it
repeatedly over the last uh couple of
decades we saw it we didn’t see much
money printing back in 1998 2000 but we
did see a lot of stimulus and uh
engineered and you know rescues of of
Banks and and hedge funds and so then we
saw money printing in
2008 massive money you could argue that
in 2008 the FED learned that they could
print money or the the treasury learned
that they could print money to bail to
bail out economies what you guys are
saying I mean is what you guys saying
that in the short term we’re in trouble
that in the short term we’re bearish I
mean like the average viewer here is
looking at us and going I think we’re
saying something different rant I think
we’re saying that in the medium to long
term really really bearish right in the
short term things can go on for the next
five years you can you can keep this
thing going for quite a while and uh you
know James probably would say we can go
a little bit longer than I would say I’m
sort of more in the opinion that we you
know we don’t have that much more time
before this thing just spirals out of
control so what happens what happens
until what happens until the thing
spirals out of control so when you both
said saying you know there’s a time
period the music can can carry on for
for a certain time period what happens
in that time period and what happens
when that time period ends so there’s
yeah there’s two kind of directions we
can go here we can have it where the FED
overstays its uh o over overstays it’s
welcome and keeps rates high or even
raises them if they see inflation tick
up and we get into this period where
suddenly they raise rates and they do
overcome that fiscal stimulus that we’re
seeing because of all the fiscal
spending and we wind up wind up driving
ourselves into a recession if that
happens that short-term pain which will
induce it will it will it will um it
will necessitate necessitate the the
money printing we’re talking about where
the fed and the treasury have to team up
and and uh just provide a ton of
liquidity into the market that’s one
thing could happen that would be like a
V recovery we saw it in 2020 and that’s
what that’s what could happen or we
could just go along like we are now keep
spending recklessly allow the the
economy to expand kind of in fake GDP
terms allow for high Perpetual inflation
and eventually have enough investors
demand larger premiums for that for
those rates that are out there in the
treasuries that we wind up spinning out
of control with the debt spiral and
we’ve seen the charts everybody has seen
the charts and even the the CBO puts out
these charts and and the treasury put
out the charts about where they think
the debt to GDP is going and even in the
in with no recessions and with interest
rates staying stable they’re still
Rising exponentially and so that’s what
will happen regardless the question is
how quick does it happen do we have a
period of pain and then V recovery or do
we just go into to this long sustained
inflation period where we wind up
spiring a lot of control eventually and
then we have the pain period that Fred’s
talking
about Fred what do you think so I mean
how do you see uh you know I I think the
FED can do the FED can do nothing as
long as the system holds but we don’t
know and I’m not talking so much about
uh just unemployment here I’m talking
about stocks right
if we have a major correction in the
stock market you know the FED is going
to do exactly what it did in March of
2020 right we we’ve seen this Playbook
right well print and lower rates right
so it’s it’s not just going to be QE it
they will lower rates aggressively right
you know and furthermore I would say you
you really have to factor in the
political situation here right because
it’s not just the fed the Fed is not
just an entity working on its own it’s
the FED plus the treasury right now I
can tell you in a trump Administration
what I
expect is I expect interest rates to go
down very very quickly yes and I expect
a new fed right so I I think it Trump
gets and we’re we’re only six months
away from this election right but Trump
gets
in that we are going to be looking at
you know 2% or less interest rates next
year you know maybe zero you know maybe
zero right it we could completely shift
uh if Trump gets in into a Zer uh
interest rate and you know what why do I
say that because Trump says it Trump
himself has said I want interest rates
at zero or lower okay so I think but
what about inflation what about
inflation I mean we have an inflation
problem so I mean if we do get Trump in
and he gets infl uh interest rates to
zero what about inflation I mean you
have inflation that seems to be back on
the up on on the upep again so how does
Trump or a new Administration reconcile
this inflation problem with getting
interest rates
down yeah I don’t think they I don’t
think he cares about it because he knows
that inflation helps the treasury and
their problem because High inflation
creates higher nominal GDP creates more
tax dollars which creates the ability to
pay down past debt with cheaper dollars
so that’s okay and inflation helps his
buddies who have a lot of assets so why
doesn’t Biden want that so I mean I mean
why doesn’t Biden want the same thing
surely Biden also wants more tax dollars
Biden’s building up a deficit every
single day why do you believe that it’s
that that Biden isn’t in the camp of
saying get the interest rates
down well I think that Biden’s tax or
Biden’s uh constituents are are
completely different than than uh Trump
s right so if you have Hardline farri
Republicans who are super fiscally
conservative then they likely have
assets and they’re going to be okay with
asset inflation whereas the other side
is you’ve got people who are hoping for
there to be enough stimulus that they
don’t have to work you’ve got the uh
what’s the word I’m looking for the the
the minimum wage uh no not the minimum
wage the
um everybody gets stimulus for in
instead of working what’s what’s the
word I’m looking for the yeah I know
what you’re talking about it’s it’s not
the minimum wages the the uh yeah yeah
yeah I know exactly what you’re talking
about um okay so uh let’s we you brought
up politics let’s talk about politics I
think Biden dropped a bit of a bomb this
week uh around uh taxes and specifically
around raising capital gains taxes I
guess that Biden’s thinking I guess
Biden’s thinking around raising taxes
and raising capital gains taxes was take
from the rich distribute to the poor but
they were also talking about uh a
capital gains tax on unrealized losses
which I mean that sounds absolutely
ludicrous any thoughts
about what the hell’s going on
here well my thought is ran is that this
is not going to happen uh they can’t
just Institute this but it may be that
it’s a preparation just to increase
capital gains tax right so they throw
that out there and they say well we
could do a you know a a tax on any
unrealized gains oh you don’t want that
okay well you’ll be okay with a you know
40% cap gains tax uh long term you know
now obviously I think both of these
ideas are just horrific uh for
assets um they’re they’re they’re bad
for all risk assets right so the they’re
not good for for they’re terrible for
stocks but they’re also terrible
probably for Bitcoin because everybody
in their right mind will take their cap
gains before the you know before this
law goes into effect uh so I I think
this does kind of would be a very very
bad thing and it’s it might cost Biden
the election to be honest to me it’s DOA
uh what I was what I was thinking of is
universal basic income that’s the the
ter I was looking for and so you know um
it it’s it’s Thursday it’s been a long
week we my there’s been a lot of
activity so my brain’s kind of fried but
uh I think you know if you look at if
you look at ways to fix the debt problem
right and the deficit problem and that’s
what he’s doing here and he’s trying to
win votes from people who are like yeah
tax the rich you know because that they
deserve to pay more of their fair share
the issue here is you’re talking about
taxing small companies entrepreneurs and
so on unrealized profits also on about
real taxing on unre gains that I mean
that is you want to increase you want to
increase the capital gains tax that’s a
normal narrative that they’ve been
screaming for a long time but to include
into that unrealized taxes I mean I kind
of see where he’s going we’re going
we’re going to tax the rich to to give
to the man in the street but he’s he’s
stifling business growth in the United
States because you’re now penalizing I
get to offset my unrealized losses too
no you know don’t don’t don’t push your
don’t push your luck um here’s here’s
the problem though so here’s the problem
here’s the issue with it is that when
you do that when you raise taxes you
wind up
disincentivizing more productivity
investment into productive productive
lines of business investments into uh
into R&D and research development to new
lines of business hiring you you you
wind up disincentivizing that and so
productivity goes down and so you wind
up having higher tax and lower
productivity the issue is that it’s
you’re you’re in the same place but it’s
actually worse because now your
production is going down it’s declining
so you’re having a higher tax rate on a
declining productivity and so it doesn’t
work and we we’ve seen it in history too
many times to understand that higher
taxes just don’t work so I want to ask
you guys just two quick rapid fire
questions next interest rate move down
or
up
down Fred down or up okay so both of you
agree both of you agree there’s no
interest rate increase coming because
that narrative is starting to creep in a
lot of people are say saying you know
soon the FED will be will be forced to
raise rates next question uh it’s a
nonzero probability but I would say that
I’m my my guess would be down okay uh
next question quick rapid fire question
uh who is in the white house uh next
year or this year in in December just
after elections who’s in the White
House go ahead
FR I’m gonna say Trump yeah I I think
that I think Biden’s working really hard
to to lose this election I’m gonna say
Trump too the but there’s so many
uncertainties and this is part of the
problem is that there’s so many
uncertainties we don’t know if Trump is
going is going to have a legal problem
that he will he will not be able to
actually be elected we that’s that’s out
there but let’s say let’s say set his
par set par let’s just say that right
now as as things stand right now you’re
talking about Trump in the white house
uh Trump in the White House how do you
see the uh the mark markets between now
and the election so how do you see risk
when I say markets I’m talking
specifically around risk assets we’re
now in call it may for for for we’re
just after the Haring we’re in May how
do you see the risk asset uh Market
between now and uh and the
elections well it’s really hard because
you’re what you’re talking about is
you’re leading up to an election that’s
highly charged between two very
polarizing figures right and at the same
time you’ve got geopolitical tension
you’ve got um in creeping increasing
uncertainty around the economy and
around our our in in inflation and so
there’s so many uncertainties between
now and then it’s virtually impossible
to gauge uh you know so that’s that’s
the issue that we’re talking about here
and you’ve got two you you literally
have two people up there that 80% of the
country would rather have somebody else
run than either of these two and so and
at the same time they’re both in their
they’re both in their late 70s and
creepy into the 80s and so I I mean is
Biden even going I mean I’m not being
factious when I ask this is he going to
be physically capable in November I we
we don’t know you know and that’s it’s
so it’s I don’t know if he’s physically
capable not I watch videos of scenario
you could come up yeah why okay that’s
fair and so there are scenarios can come
up with that the the election is is
postponed or there’s you know they they
come up with some sort of new lockdown
who knows like there’s so much
uncertainty between now and then Fred
what do your Fred what’s your view here
so risk asset between I don’t think
listen I don’t have any strong even if I
I sort of think Trump has a little bit
of an edge I don’t think he’s a shoe in
by any means right so I think you know
it’s very close and I think the betting
the BET The Bookies are right here right
it is a very close
election what do you think happens to
markets between now and
then uh that’s what he asking yeah so
what do I think happens to the markets I
think the stock well let’s talk about
the stock market first of all right I
think the stock market is going to is
going to not like this election right is
so I I I feel like the stock market
could trade down ahead of this election
not massively but it might it might
still drift lower and it might actually
have a big problem but again we could
have we probably are going to have at
least one fed cut before the election
right if we get one we get we get three
before two before the election if we get
two fed Cuts I think that’s going to be
pretty good you know and I think Biden
will then paint the picture of we’re
back economy’s booming stock markets
booming we were able to cut rates you
know
uh Perfect Landing you know what ever
right and I think so I think it I think
there’s sort of possibility either way
but in the end I don’t think as a
bitcoiner I don’t think it matters right
because like my time Horizon is not six
months my time Horizon is multiple years
and I really think that over a two-year
Horizon all scenarios are great for
Bitcoin right so you know I okay tell me
tell me why so walk me through the
twoyear the two-year wh ifs and walk me
through why all scenarios are good for
Bitcoin well I mean look it it sort of
goes back to now now we’re talking about
Bitcoin the asset which is very
different I think than any other crypto
right because I think sailor made this
great video uh when he was in in Brazil
recently right and you know he sort of
said listen it’s a it’s Bitcoin is the
it’s it’s the the largest monetary
Network right now right so we’re looking
at a network effect where you know this
asset is growing this is a a a network
it’s growing like the internet grew
right it very much is the internet of
money and um and you know this thing is
growing you know and I’ve I’ve put a lot
of videos there about this power law but
it’s it’s basically growing at this sort
of compound rate of of something like
40% right now right it’s slowing a
little bit but it’s it’s almost
exponential growth that we’re seeing
just like the internet in its early days
and if you have 40% growth and you but
you know plus or minus you
know it it could go down to zero or
negative and it could go up to
200% at the end of the day you’re
compounding at 40% and you wait two
three four years at 40% you’re going to
Triple your money okay over a fouryear
period that that’s just the math right
and you just you wait long enough you
will go and so that I think is the
fundamental bet that all bitcoiners are
going to make they’re so you’re making a
bet you’re making a bet on network
effects that’s the first the first bet
is yeah I mean it’s it’s it is it is a
complete Network effect it is Bitcoin is
the it’s growing at the fastest rate
okay and by the way I just took a look
at this the other day for ethereum I
said okay let’s let’s look at modeling
ethereum as a power law now Bitcoin if
you look at it as a power law it’s
growing roughly at time to the six power
since the uh um since the
uh since the Genesis block right eth is
growing at time to roughly the third
power right so it’s in terms of it
Bitcoin is growing at like the square of
eth in terms of in terms of price okay
so you can actually model out based on
this you can actually model out what eth
to bitcoin does right and that’s that
graph you’re showing there right so you
know yeah yeah so so you’re saying
bitcoin’s growing as a monetary Network
much quicker than eth is growing as a
superc Computing Network that I think
that’s what you’re basically saying
saying the rate the the rate of growth
it started yeah so it started out
because if you’re if you’re looking at a
power law right you get this really big
growth initially and then it slows down
so Bitcoin was growing at 200% a year
back in 2015 right but now it’s only
growing at 40% a year well
was
growing amazingly in 2016 and 2017 it
was way outg growing Bitcoin right but
it’s now falling and it’s falling faster
the growth because it started with a
lower power now I’m I’m throwing a lot
of math at you guys but that’s just
that’s just the the way these power laws
work so if you’re looking at something
like ether salon and you’re like wow
this thing came out it’s growing like a
weed it’s taking over the world it does
look like that for the first year after
four years however you notice that
bitcoin’s winning okay is that because
is that because we as Michael sailor
says we need a distributed independent
uh uh money network but the need for a
supercomputing Network that has the same
uh uh powers or the same uh uh uh
properties isn’t such a isn’t such a
need like Michael s’s AR yeah I think
that’s a pretty good argument look
there’s there’s a lot of different
flavors right so salana is a different
flavor than eth right but neither of
them is really going to take over
Bitcoin it doesn’t matter right these
are smaller things
so okay so scenario one you’re saying
network effects of Bitcoin Network
effects of Bitcoin are are a good
scenario for Bitcoin what are the other
scenarios what are the other things that
are making you super bullish on bitcoin
right now like so the one is you’re
saying it’s got this the highest and
fastest Network effects in the world in
terms of a manitary network we know that
when a manitary or any kind of network
starts growing uh it’s Unstoppable
barring three forces one force uh being
government intervention and I think it’s
too late for the governments to
intervene on on bitcoin they’ve just
legalized an ETF in in what is probably
the biggest ETF Market in the world the
other one is technological breakdown
we’re not getting technological
breakdown on bitcoin it’s been battle
tested for the past 10 years 12 years
nothing’s happened and the third thing
is a 10 times better competitor
but even a 10 times better competitor
only has like a 0.1% chance of actually
penetrating a network and so kind of
like I think your bet here is saying on
a on a network effect point of view
Bitcoin wins in terms of a store of
value effect what else look here’s the
thing I fundamentally believe that we’re
all competing for one thing World money
right that’s it right we had this money
for years and year for 5,000 years which
was gold right then we went to Fiat now
we’re going to something else okay James
and I believe it’s Bitcoin right now
there’s probably a tenth of a hundredth
of a percent chance that it’s ethereum
you know something like that I think for
many I think for many I think for many
it’s definitely not I think for manyy is
not ethereum I don’t think ethereum is
trying to compete with gold or claims to
compete with gold but I want to ask you
a question so if I’m they are they they
have this whole Narrative of ultrasound
money you know ultrasound yeah I’m not
saying it’s correct you and I know that
it’s not correct but they’re definitely
they’re definitely also trying to win
that narrative the ethereum guy I mean
I’ve I’ve heard I’ve heard that people
in the US identify as goats and then you
know they they’re goat it doesn’t mean
that they’re goat just because they
identify as a goat you know like I’ve
seen people in the US say that like I
was on a flight one day the guy says I
identify as a surfboard you know and I
mean he’s not a surfboard so you know
eth can say that they ultrasound money
they’re not really ultrasound money
Bitcoin is clearly the replacement for
gold I’m watching watch ing gold and
gold here here it is so let me get you
guys back on screen so I’m watching gold
gold is like you can kind of say nearing
all-time highs it’s been it’s it’s been
messing around with its all-time highs
over here a lot of it is because there
seems to be a big demand for gold out of
China and I mean it looks like it looks
like to me and maybe I’m wrong here that
the Chinese investors that used to buy
property are now [ __ ] themselves
because the property Market in China is
absolutely collapsing and they’re trying
to externalize their assets out of out
of China in the in in you know in the in
in the environment of massive exchange
controls and probably the only way they
can do it is by buying gold and as a
result they’ve got this crazy demand for
gold and they’re willing to actually pay
a spot premium for gold I mean first of
all it’s not just them it’s it’s it’s
central banks too I mean we made such a
tactical mistake and tactical error when
we shut off and seized Russia’s assets
the treasuries you have you know people
talk about bricks but really the
important thing here is that you’ve got
you’ve got central banks that are trying
to get under out from under the thumb of
the US Treasury and having to own Us
treasuries in order to have dollars in
order to have crossb currency uh
transactions and so they’re what they’re
trying to do is get away from having to
use a dollar it’s not like they’re
looking for something to replace it gold
is not going to replace it they but they
can store value in Gold against
currencies in order to make those
payments rather than holding treasuries
which they don’t know if they’re going
to have access to you know so that is an
important narrative and then the other
thing is you can’t talk about Bitcoin in
this day and age in this year 2024
without discussing these new spot ETFs
this is a massive development for this
uh for this protocol and the reason it’s
so massive is that prior to this year
there were many institutional investors
who simply did not have access to
Bitcoin in a way that made any sense to
them personally or professionally and so
Fred and I know this because we’ve been
in the industry for a long time there
were ma there were major barriers to
entry for the for for institutional
investors to get into Bitcoin you simply
didn’t have the ability structurally
operationally to buy to settle to hold
Co keys and and to have key phrases like
you just didn’t have that ability to do
that in institutions and now for the
first time they can just go in and buy
it just like it’s any other stock they
may not get margin on it I agree with
they can buy it and settle it I agree
with you really important development I
agree with you and I think the the
institutionalization of Bitcoin and the
removing of all barriers of investment
from Bitcoin is a massive massive
massive step I I’m also going to agree
with you that I think that the launch of
the Bitcoin ETF was the most successful
ETF launch in history uh over 122.4
billion flowing into uh ETFs 4.25% of
bitcoin’s entire circulating Supply is
currently sitting locked up in these
ETFs but this week we actually had a few
days where there well we had negative
outflows we also had a day where Black
Rock so what so just is the hype over
like this is normal though this is
normal because you you’ve had this surge
of of demand from people who are waiting
for it you had you had people who have
IAS that are sitting there waiting for
some way to invest it in Bitcoin without
having to go through hoops to buy uh
Bitcoin through an unregistered broker
now they can buy it right through their
Fidelity uh so why are they not so why
are they not buying it that was that was
that was immediate that’s number one so
that that started happening immediately
you’re barely starting to see the big
institutions dip their toe in now just
barely it takes about three to six
months for them to go to go through this
kind of a quiet period where they watch
the asset and they see how it’s
performing they make sure there are no
settlement or custody issues with
Fidelity with black rock with Morgan
Stanley JP Morgan whatever that they’re
making sure that everything’s working
properly and then they’ll say okay now
we’re going to approve it here’s the
pamphlet this is what you need to say to
to your investors to your clients and
you’ve got to stay by the script because
we have to cover our ass here and and
now they’re starting to just barely come
out but the big the big inflection
points are going to be when you see big
institutions on Bloomberg listed in
their filings as in in the holders of
these ETFs and we’re just now starting
to see that Fred do you the other point
yeah the other point here is is we have
this there’s a sort of narrative right
that fund flows just drive uh you know e
uh bitcoin price right and and sort of
been true to some extent over the first
you know the first quarter right since
January 11th but it’s not it is not
necessarily the fact that there’s also
not a relationship between Bitcoin and
fund flows right so the the Wall Street
is to some extent a momentum player
right they’re they’re like us they’re
like anybody else they like buying when
when when things are going up right so
if things take a dip they won’t
necessarily sell but they’ll slow down
the buying or they’ll stop the buying
and that’s what we’ve seen in the last
month right I fundamentally think that
it was not the fact that it was over on
the fund side and therefore the Bitcoin
price dropped I think it was the
opposite I think the Bitcoin price
dropped and then the funds took a
breather and they were like whoa okay
but hold on hold on hold on I mean I’m
not an I’m not an investment genius I
just run a YouTube channel and I know
that the best time to buy is when the
price dips so not when the price is
going up and these are supposed to be
the smart money institutions managing
all the billions of dollars in the world
I would say they’re no they’re not so I
think how are these people looking at
this thing they’re they’re exactly the
opposite of a value Trader right they
are a momentum Trader they
buy if Bitcoin the current inv the
current the current Wall Street
institutional investors are most mostly
hedge funds and so and IRAs for
long-term investment but the the ones
that Fred’s talking about is momentum
players because and this is this goes to
back all the way back to your question
which was all look gold is here
bitcoin’s doing this like what why are
they not in lock step well part of the
issue here is that Bitcoin is still seen
it’s perceived as a risk on asset that’s
just reality we know I know that it’s
riskof I would rather own Bitcoin than
than long-term bonds and 30-year
treasuries but Wall Street doesn’t
really know that institution investors
don’t know that yet so it’s still
considered a risk on asset so Fred’s
talking about the uh the momentum
players and I and I and I agree with
that there’s there’s definitely some
momentum players in here just whipping
it around and it’s not just it’s not
just Speculator right it’s just what
these guys are doing is they’re going to
look at the track record of how did I
bit they’re not going to look at Bitcoin
they’re just like how did ibit do over
the last 30 days 60 days 90 days two
quarters three quarters Etc right and if
ibit is the best performing you know uh
ETF they’ll buy ibit now if ibit if ibit
has dropped over the last month they’ll
be a little less Keen to buy ibit you
know so it it’s not necessarily it’s
just sort of allocation to this new
asset they have no they really don’t
know anything about they don’t trust
they haven’t read the white paper they
haven’t read the Bitcoin standard they
don’t understand how to self cust things
what they know is this asset’s probably
a good place to put your money but hey
it’s risky right okay so let me ask you
let me ask your question uh let’s look
we we spoke about November December this
year if I were to say to you right now
4.25% of the total Bitcoin Supply is
locked up in Bitcoin ETFs and I would to
say to you forecast for me between now
this we’re now 3 months after the
approval so it was I think the approval
was 10th of Jan uh 10th of Feb 10th of
March 10th of April qu it we were 3 and
a half months after the approval
how do you see the amount of uh Supply
current bitcoin Supply held by ETFs at
the end of the
year I see it I see it much higher but
you know that has to do with what what
Fred’s talking about is they don’t
understand it yet but when you’re when
the real institutions come in the non-
momentum players actually the serious
investors as they’re able to buy this
and they’re and they’re State they start
to dip their toe in what they do do is
they’ll leg in the trade they’ll get a
one to 3% position in their portfolio
typically just one half a percent to 1%
and then they’ll start doing their
research and as they understand it
better it’s my belief that they’re
intelligent enough to know that this is
someplace they want to allocate a
certain portion of their capital and
that will grow and so that’s that’s the
point though is that the understanding
has to grow and that’s when it will
start moving away from just a risk on
asset to something that it’s actually an
actually an allocation that’s long term
in these
portfolios give me a number give me a
number sir four 4.25 we are now give me
a number at the end of the year I look F
first of all that 4.25
includes uh you know gbtc which was
which was a lot ear so really it’s about
you know it’s about 2% you know a little
bit sorry it’s about it’s about two and
a half 3% that is just kind of the new
ETFs right so look if I had to guess I
think we might get to 10% it might right
like might get to 10% um but I think
that I think kind of to James’s point
right I think what we are going to look
at I think Bitcoin is gonna do very well
this year it’s gon to end up it’ll it’ll
be somewhat volatile very unpredictable
but it’s going to end up doubling
between now and the end of the year okay
for sure and and I
think once we have a good year of track
record and we we have a new president
and maybe the same president but we have
a new that that uncertainty is behind us
right and we’re into 2025 that’s really
when the Wall Street advisor allocations
really going to kick in and that’s going
to just take us parabolic so you’re so
you’re saying you’re saying actually
exactly what that we’re we’re going to
repeat the Haring cycle when you say
repeat the Haring cycle generally when
we get a Haring cycle when we har we
then get a period of chop and the period
of chop is usually 100 days maybe 150
days depending on on that period and
then only do we actually go up into the
parabolic stage which in this case is
kind of like a 2020 you know if we were
to follow the Haring cycle of previous
periods then we would get that in 20125
you’re saying you’re forecasting pretty
much exactly that you’re saying look we
have here’s the difference here’s the
difference ran I think first of all
we’ve never had a having cycle where we
start the having cycle at an alltime
line that that’s never happen right and
so I think that the cycle that’s really
important here it’s not the having cycle
it’s the bull market cycle right and I
look at this as there been we are in the
fourth bull market of Bitcoin right so I
think you the real big bull markets you
know you had the the market that ended
in end of November of 2013 right that
with Mount goau you had the the second
bow Market which was 2016 and 2017 right
that’s the second bull market the third
bull market Market was 2019 to
2021 November right that’s the third
bull market and we are now in the fourth
bull market and we’re not at the
beginning of the fourth bow Market we’re
in the third inning of the fourth Bowl
market right and this fourth Bowl Market
we’re already a year and a quarter in
right so I I don’t like to say it just
started yesterday you know with the the
having it didn’t right it started this
Market this bull market started at
Bitcoin 15,000 right that’s when this
how long would it Lup how long would it
lost the fourth bull market so I think I
think well if you look at the other
three bull markets they’ve all lasted
three years three to four years right
really if you look at if you time it
from the the low right if you time it
from the low well let’s just take the
last one right when was the low on
bitcoin right it was in kind of end of
November of 2018 right it was Bitcoin
was at 3,500 you and I both remember
that very well right when when that was
like that so where did it go from 3500
it went to 69,000 you know 69,000 okay
so we went up 20x right we went up 20
almost 20x right but we went up 20x over
all the 2019 all of 2020 and all the
2021 right so yeah 2021 was kind of a
flat year net net but it was a
three-year bll market
right also the the 2017 Market was a
three-year bll Market but really it
started in 2015 it was 2015 2016 all of
2017 so I think we’re in a year and a
quarter into at least a three-year bow
Market maybe longer with these ETFs
right these ETFs that thing has a lot of
juice left to go right oh it’s huge I
mean just think about the institutional
investors Fred when they come in and
they’re not price sensitive and they say
I just just go along V vwap it volume
weighted average price I just need to
buy you know $100 million worth get me
done over the next five days you know
and they’ll they’ll all go along with
each other and that yeah and it’s just
so I totally agree James and I think
Rand the thing I think let’s just forget
about the happenings because your first
question was what about the happenings
like happenings don’t matter anymore
right they really don’t like we’re down
to like point you know 6% of the supply
per year it’s it’s it’s this is not not
what’s driving bitcoin price at this
point right even the guy who invented a
stock to Flo came out with a tweet and
said guess what Flo no longer matters
it’s only stock at this point right it’s
only demand so what’s really what what’s
going to determine bitcoin price right
now is how much demand is there for
Bitcoin right which is and really over
the next three year four years what that
is is how much demand is there for the
Bitcoin ETF I mean I hate to be blunt
but that’s that’s really it right now
it’s like are these financial
institutions who control you know
trillions of dollars trillions of
dollars that can be allocated to this
right are they going to put in over the
next cycle are they going to put in $200
billion $500 billion you know what’s the
number that they’re going to put into
this market right and what kind of
multiplier are we going to get but it’s
look it’s it’s a it’s a huge number and
so I don’t think that we’re talking
about
in terms of hings anymore I think we’re
just talking in terms of bull markets
and you know look equities bull markets
can last a very long time as we’ve seen
right they you know the bull markets can
rage for a long time the Japanese bull
market uh the Nick the biggest bull
market I’ve witnessed in my life right
and I caught the tail end of it right
which was that market started in
1950 and ended in 1990 it was a 40-year
non stop bull market in Japanese stocks
it was the greatest stock bull market of
all times and the Nick went up 400 times
from 1950 to
1990 wow and so and look and guess what
happened at the end of that bull market
we we it it took us 30 years to get back
to the Nick price of 1990 so you know Ma
massive housing pop yeah yeah so look I
think with Bitcoin what I would expect
is number one we’re at the beginning of
this bull market we’re at a very
beginning of a bull market we have we’re
at the beginning of a secular change in
the investor base of Bitcoin fundamental
change everybody who is investing before
is very different from the investors now
you know we are starting to see retail
America you know Joe sixpack putting his
401k or IRA or whatever it is right into
Bitcoin okay or or or just a percentage
of his the stock market uh portfolio so
I think this portends a very long bull
market in Bitcoin and it could last a
decade it could last a decade this bull
market you know it it’ll come in it’ll
come in waves I don’t think it’s just
GNA be one big tsunami wall of capital
coming in it’s just going to come in
waves but but you think sorry but
absolutely normal but you think that so
so you think that the ETF basically
invalidates this fouryear Bitcoin cycle
you know this narrative you’re saying
that maybe now because we got the ETF
and it’s no I think I think it I think
it I think it makes it it it validates
it it’s going to continue and it gives
it a little bit extra you know juice and
maybe a longer period what I think ran
is that the the four-year cycle really
it it’s not mathematically precise it’s
like we’ve had we’ve had four bull
markets right so Far We’ve also had four
happenings but the bull markets did not
actually correspond to the happenings
right because the last one started a
year before the havening so yes it’s you
know I really just think this causality
of hings cause bull markets you know
needs to be reconsidered because I just
don’t think hings matter that much going
forward I think to some extent I think
the causality that everybody sees is
Just an Illusion right and and again
look look at 16 remember the 2016 bu uh
happening ran you remember how much of a
non-event that was I remember it very
well what we didn’t talk about it nobody
what it was it was a non-event it was a
non-event it was a non-event everybody
was like okay that happenings don’t
matter whatsoever right and then what
happened in 2017 Market took off like a
bat out of hell why why did it take off
so much it wasn’t even the cause wasn’t
even Bitcoin it was ethereum right like
the entire narrative in 2017 was eth iOS
okay you know and and look you know and
you know I remember it very well because
our mutual friend Brock Pierce you know
was doing kind of he started the you
know EOS Ico right4 billion doll daily
raise Ico and mean yeah you know so but
look it was it you know every nobody was
talking about Bitcoin in 2017 I mean
honestly it was it was like an
afterthought the only thing people were
talking about it was wait a second this
is going to get replaced by Bitcoin cash
or like I remember that you know the
block size War right so Bitcoin was not
nobody was focused on it everybody was
focused on ethereum and it had nothing
to do with the Bitcoin happening and
really that bull market had nothing to
do it just it was coincidental that this
thing bull market happened right around
the half but this Market but this bull
market you could say is very much a b
coin bull market because of the
institution it is a it is but it also
does nothing to do with the happening
okay it has everything to do with
Bitcoin ETFs if that ETF is not approved
where do you think Bitcoin would be
right now yeah I think it would be back
at $30,000 guys listen we are we are
completely out of time I mean it’s it’s
I’d love to carry this on before we
started talking you guys said to me this
is going to be a 4-Hour conversation I
probably should have known about that I
think we leave here I mean we just
started exactly I think we leave here
after like a a rough week on the market
but I think we leave here a long-term
positive got some great predictions from
you guys so guys thank you much love to
both of you thank you for first time on
banter for both of you so thank you very
very much uh Thanks James thanks Fred
and yeah to the bant fam uh sending you
guys much love I’ll see you guys again
on Sunday remember we got a meme Coin
Show on bant plus very different from
this show we’re going to have panels but
they’re not going to be talking Bitcoin
they’re going to be talking meme coins
remember to keep farming your gumy you
know how to farm your Gumi you can um
you can sign up to well school and get
the best trading School in the world
there’s a link below you can sign up to
blof you can sign up to bit you can sign
up to Evo and of course you you can Farm
the points on ban to Bubbles uh also
yeah I’ll see you guys again on Sunday
until then trade well my friends
[Applause]
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🔊 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 $𝗚𝗨𝗠𝗠𝗬 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀!
👉 𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 $𝗚𝗨𝗠𝗠𝗬 𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝘄𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: https://twitter.com/gummyonsolana
👉 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝘂𝘁 $𝗚𝗨𝗠𝗠𝗬 𝗪𝗲𝗯𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲: https://gummyonsol.com/

🔥 𝗚𝗨𝗠𝗠𝗬 𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗢𝗡 𝗠𝗘𝗫𝗖 𝗡𝗢𝗪!! 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡 𝗨𝗣 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗘
👉 https://www.mexc.com/register?inviteCode=mexc-Banter

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🗞️ 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝘂𝗽 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲!
📬 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗹𝗲 – https://dailycandle.substack.com/
📬 𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 – https://goodmorningcrypto.substack.com/

📣 𝗛𝗼𝘀𝘁:
Crypto Man Ran
Twitter – https://twitter.com/cryptomanran

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🌎 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗚𝗟𝗢𝗕𝗔𝗟 𝗕𝗔𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗥 𝗙𝗔𝗠!
– All official social accounts can be found here:
👉 https://www.cryptobanter.com/community/

👁️‍🗨️ 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁:
– https://www.cryptobanter.com/our-ethics/

⚠️ 𝗕𝗘𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗢𝗙 𝗦𝗖𝗔𝗠𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗜𝗡 𝗢𝗨𝗥 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗠𝗨𝗡𝗜𝗧𝗬 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗟𝗦

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𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼:

🎵 DJ Asher Swissa
– Track: https://bit.ly/336wtix
– Channel: https://bit.ly/31soP1j

🎵 Marc Rebillet
– Track: https://bit.ly/3pXQW21
– Channel: https://bit.ly/332zhx9

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𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗿:
Crypto Banter is a social podcast for entertainment purposes only!
All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests and callers should not be construed as financial advice! Views expressed by guests and hosts do not reflect the views of the station. Listeners are encouraged to do their own research.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #Altcoins

⏱𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗺𝗽𝘀:
00:00 Markets Going Sideways – 10-Year Bitcoin Bull Market
01:50 Metamask News – SEC Being Sued by Ethereum
05:07 Fred Krueger & James Lavish Join the Banter
05:47 Economic Data – Stagflation & Inflation Debt Spiral
11:08 Money Printing, Stimulus & Banking Rescues – What’s Next?
15:00 Stock Market Correction & Lowering Interest Rates
18:15 US Capital Gains Tax Proposal – Fixing the Tax Problem
21:45 Next Interest Rate Move? & Who Wins the US Election?
25:10 What Will Happen to Markets Before the Election?
26:30 Why All Scenarios Are Good for Bitcoin – BTC vs ETH
30:55 What Could Break Bitcoin? Competing for World Money
33:03 Increasing Gold Demand in China & Bitcoin Spot ETFs
38:55 When is the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin? Track Records
41:10 Bitcoin Locked Up in ETFs Today & BTC ETF Outlook
43:50 Bitcoin Bull Market Cycles Compared – What’s Different?
48:40 How Long Can Bull Markets Last? Bitcoin ETF Influence
50:47 4-Year Halving Cycles vs Bull Market Cycles
52:02 2016 Bull Market Ethereum ICO Narrative

🎬𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

🔎𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀:
Bitcoin – Bitcoin Price – Bitcoin Analysis – Bitcoin News – Crypto Market – Crypto Market Update – Crypto Experts – Crypto Investors – Friday Banter – Banter – Banter Crypto – Crypto Banter – Crypto Banter Today – Crypto Banter YouTube – Cryptoman Ran – Ran Neuner – NordVPN – Bitcoin Bull Market – Fred Krueger – James Lavish – Stagflation – BTC vs ETH – World Money – Buy Bitcoin – Bitcoin ET – Bull Market Cycles