Flash Crashes Appear… Should YOU Be Concerned?

Flash Crashes Appear… Should YOU Be Concerned?

well we knew volatility was going to get
wild this week Tesla is up after a bad
result and meta’s down over 14% at the
time of this recording in after hours
trade so Vol is clearly here to stay and
dark pool activity is also starting to
heat up around this zone are they buyers
or are they sellers today we’ll talk
about that along with the CTA
positioning and the updates to those
particular records meanwhile meta looks
to be opening at close to its previous
Gap fell and could this be an
opportunity for everyone out there in
the markets today we talk about what the
bonds Market is telling us what’s in
store for Microsoft and Google in some
massive earnings and one of the world
markets starts to heat up big time that
we’ve been looking at but are there
actually quite a few underneath the hood
that are starting to improve join us as
we cover stocks Commodities and cryptos
because there’s a lot going on in these
markets right
now well welcome back everyone to The
Daily Show my name is Tom today we cover
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it’s really interesting so I’d love to
have you here let’s talk about the
biggest relative strengths right now
because of course as many viewers would
know we’ve been very strong on gold very
strong on energy and very strong on
minerals and metals recently they have
been up there there but it may come as
no surprise to also see some of the
markets improving where we tend to see
those mining stocks Canada and United
Kingdom are coming through in a big way
and it turns out that some of the best
leaders at the moment other than midcaps
in the S&P 500 have actually come from
other countries is this trend to
continue well take a look at the NASDAQ
it was on top of the world late last
year and all the way into the start of
this year now it’s down six places to
number nine and it’s actually only up
what 2% for the year so far pretty much
treasuries one of the worst markets is
actually performing the same for the
year so far now that could be
opportunity for all of us around the
markets but this is a chart that I think
every one of us should have moving
forward the Vanguard Total stop market
versus the Vanguard footsy all World us
ntf notice that it’s been sideways since
2024 and that if this drops through the
bottom what it’s telling you is money is
Flowing throughout the world as everyone
starts to get a little bit more excited
about the recovery or whatever we’ve got
going on right now now remember the US
is the ultimate Market there’s no doubt
that there’s tons of AI tons of amazing
technological improvements here when
you’re talking about Metals minerals and
all those types of things it doesn’t
make up much of the market some of the
areas in Latin America some of the areas
in of course the world are starting to
look really really attractive and this
is starting to show you that flow is
coming through there are some other
reasons as well though I think this
could be occurring have a look here this
is retail positioning on cfds over the
last 24 hours and what you’ll notice is
the us500 everyone’s pretty mixed we’ve
basically got equal numbers of bulls and
bears and that shows confusion in the
markets it’s pretty similar from wall
Street’s perspective the Dow but have a
look here at what we get when we go into
the overall Market the footsie in
particular one of the strongest index
ETFs 79% of retail Traders are short on
that right now and the Dax has been
Improv Ming strongly and 77% of people
are short they were the kind of stats we
were seeing for the us500 and of course
the Dow during that October into
February and March rally so let’s have a
look at the S&P 500 should we be going
yes this thing absolutely back the Bulls
are back it’s all good well after 14% on
meta I think you can clearly see that V
is Big this season and I think meta is
going to give an opportunity but it may
still even drop a little bit more into
that Gap there’s going to be a really
good watch here and we’re going to look
at it pretty much every day along with
Tesla as we’re trying to ascertain who’s
really winning the battle but fear of
strength models this is important and
advanced decline lines are also
incredibly important if we start to see
this tick to the upside and we see more
advances than declines then we’re
clearly in the future of the bull market
if we start to see this continue to tick
down then you need to start thinking
about the 50 we moving average as being
that correction path remember we’re at
one of the most important levels the 20
we moving average at the moment and we
always expect a bounce there but if this
gives way capitulation or a waterfall
effect can certainly appear in that next
level and we’ll look at those on the
charts if you’re new here so you can see
where they are very very soon risk on
risk-off ratios clearly something’s
happening at this point as well we’ve
had a bit of riskof we got a little
Spike over that 20 weekly if this drops
through then of course again it it
enables that kind of waterfall effect so
most things are showing that we’re
finding some form of equilibrium in the
markets meta certainly may be shaking
that up but if Google and Microsoft
report okay but not in line with the
market expectations get ready for a sell
off through that 20weekly and of course
a decent selloff in general a nice 10%
correction would be fantastic right now
for overall a healthy market and
shedding a bit of the hundreds of
billions off the Fang stocks or in this
I called the Fang stocks off the mag s
stocks they would be also pretty good
I’m starting to show my age there guys
when you start saying Fang stocks Bond
bonds versus Commodities and stocks in
general what are they telling us well
usually bonds uh kind of give us a
precursor of markets now it’s been
interest rates up and overall bonds down
in recent times and that’s actually
fairly normal if bonds start to freak
out at a rate that’s higher than the
interest rates up that’s when you need
to start freaking out I do have a little
bit of an indicator I can show you later
on that tells you what really is going
on the bonds market and it might
surprise you also for the Bulls should
you be still looking at this saying yeah
no things are still really good well
frankly probably yes since 1940 to 2024
when we have the first quarter and the
second quarter both positive which just
basically means we have two 10%
back-to-back quarters that is really
good for Ford 60 month returns now this
is wild
92.6% average and 100% strike record
holy moly so that is really huge and if
it holds up which it may uh this is
going to be a wild couple of years but I
do caution people to be thinking about
this as if we do end up getting
breakouts and things get wild you will
be tempted by the song of the siren and
that is to take massive leverage in
markets I’m pretty sure leverage in
markets which is remains quite Low by
the way is going to imp increase over
the years by money flow and if that does
start to really get into those topping
levels whether it’s one year away or two
years away yeah we all know it doesn’t
end well and I’ve got another chart
that’s showing you there are similar
signs here that are showing signs of
late cycle investing and that’s when
markets go the most crazy both ways but
at the same time people get absolutely
euphoric and we’re already starting to
see the signs of that in the market you
might think Euphoria is there now but
remember back in 2021 and remember back
if you ever remember looking at China
back in
201516 that was euphoric they went
absolutely wild now let’s go over to
what what’s happening are we in a
bullish overall trend at the moment yes
we’re not seeing the fear that you would
usually see from 10year treasury notes
we’ve had strong bond auctions most of
the time that’s usually a good sign and
of course the world seems to be
expanding at this point even though you
go well how’s that even possible
obviously there’s a bit more juice in
the back end than we ever thought when
we have a look here at breakdowns and
breakouts based on bonds recently we
used a similar chart to this to actually
show us that volatility was on the rise
that has still been on the rise but I
can tell you over the last 24 hours it’s
dropping off a bit so clearly the fear
of the unknown which is what really
freaks the market out the most is
starting to drop off and now it comes to
the earnings and with meta starting to
show you know signs of cracking just due
to mostly overspend and maybe some
metaphor stuff that the market doesn’t
like all of these things are starting to
lean on that 20weekly moving average so
if that gets taken you’ll need to be
paying attention what about underneath
the hood well I’ve got some of the
market sectors here and utilities
Staples and of course energy and Health
Care are all at the top of the list over
the last 5 days now I’ve Loved utilities
recently and I must admit I generally
get rid of it in the middle of April and
maybe this year was not so good to get
rid of in the middle of April because
it’s kept going well but uh this could
tell us again about late cycle investing
I think the most important factor is
though that when you look at Regional
Banks and banks in general they are
still leading and what that means is
that banks are incredibly sensitive to
changes in the economy and obviously
when things go bad especially
financially Banks get absolutely hit so
because they’re going up that is a
decent sign again for the Bulls and
especially if we keep correcting here
and only the tech stocks I think that is
a very good uh correction because that’s
exactly what you want to be seeing but
financials holding up will be important
last 24 hours mostly the sell-offs were
in meta after hours we’ll see how that
ends up affecting the market and of
course Nvidia so just before we jump
into the charts we take a look at all
the key levels and the big zones you
need to be watching I want to say a big
thank you to the sponsor of today’s
video which is Tiger Brokers and they’re
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check them out all right let’s move over
now to the S&P 500 and take a look at
who was winning over the last 24 hours
so one of the big things was of course
we moved back up to the Daily 50 moving
average which sits right here then we
also had an anchored vwap and we had a
huge coal wall which we’ll look at in
just a moment stopping this market and
actually acted like a massive resistance
Point throughout the session let’s go
down to the smaller time frame you’ll
notice it kind of sold off that 5090
sold down rallied back up and I would
say that no one really was in control of
the market for most of the session as it
was kind of neutralizing around the
board if I was to guess though and this
is one of the things I mentioned to our
Market Masters Club as well when I saw a
structure like this this would have been
a pretty good sell now you would have
got lucky because of course in
ultimately meta is the one that ended up
taking it down but that’s actually a
pretty replicable sale level so let’s
move over to the futures and take a look
at how it looks here so you’ll notice
again it was market movement Market down
market up and then of course meta came
through leading into the cell Zone where
do we have the options now moving
forward well we still have the vwap call
positive gamma level sitting at 5100 so
that’s still the big resistance where
the Bulls absolutely win if the Bulls
push it through I think 5200 could be
the next Zone and we also have the
5025 bare level now we still are in what
we call negative gamma so because
negative gamma if 5025 is taken due to
maybe bad Google results or bad
Microsoft results that could start a
Cascade effect of Futures needing to be
hedged off and of course getting through
the 20weekly moving average we’re in a
very Dynamic Market which is great for
Traders for people that entered into
shorts up here I think there could still
be more left for you because of course
at the moment the market sentiment could
be turning a little bit negative due to
meta but uh for buyers if you’re wanting
to get into this Market you’re saying
you know what I’m very happy with how
I’ve seen things improve again that
505,000 to 5025 is going to be the
defended zone of the Bulls so this is
the area for the Bulls to look at
underneath here is where the Bears take
control and negative gamma starts to
take over let’s have a look at the
overall negative gamma situation so as I
mentioned the 5025 the 5,000 have a look
that’s where all the puts are at the
moment the 5100 here on the 26 that’s
where all the calls are so we clearly
trapped within this Zone waiting for all
these earnings results to come out to
make that next big decision a lot of
people are saying oh that’s really
wishy-washy could be up could be down
absolutely it could be because you’re
trapped within two gamma positions
generally in trading and investing well
investing is a little bit different you
look for key levels such as the 20weekly
moving average such as the 50 weekly
moving average to do your investments in
the stocks that you love but from a
Traders perspective you’ve got to figure
out when the market is moving to the
next level of equilibrium so let’s say
you go from 5100 and you break that zone
then it become statistically more likely
you’re going towards the next level when
you have that statistical Advantage you
understand the options move that’s when
it’s really important so if you want to
find out more about those things of
course you could check out our courses
but also watching The Daily Show I got
some really heartwarming messages from
you guys this week I won’t mention names
but one member um absolutely amazing I’m
going to reply to you after this video
and basically they went from being you
know pretty bad in the whole I’ll
disclose that they were down probably
around $100,000 and by effectively
looking at a abundance mindset by
looking at the market by being generally
very optimistic about their overall
results and what they were looking for
they were able to claw back that money
in a safer way than usual now that’s an
incredible result and that person should
be very proud of what they’ve done
because they’ve managed to do it in a
more methodical process and I think
that’s very important if you don’t do it
in methodical process and just YOLO all
over the place really you’re gambling we
all know how that ends up not very good
for most people let’s look at the NASDAQ
CTA positioning now little bit of an
uptick they obviously like the weekly 20
moving average a little bit as well it’s
not enough to write home about it’s very
normal for them to do this we’ve seen it
before weekly 20 moving average was just
here actually last time they bought it
up a little bit so little bit of an
uptick not enough to write home about
Advanced decline line CTA is coming back
in the positive side that’ll really tell
you the Bulls are in control plus
positive gamma SPX same thing a little
bit of a pickup and gold continues to
get dropped here by ctas it was very
heavily positioned so again little bit
of a sleep for gold could be on the The
Horizon and I would be all in for that
because I think even though I’m very
bullish on gold it does need to have
correction period so it doesn’t do
blow-offs let’s look forward now into
earnings so one of the things a lot of
people have been discussing is Russell
2000 is it still cheap well it’s moving
into the not so cheap lines it’s
basically now on pretty much the average
but the Ford PE here is sitting at 15.75
which suggests that we should be looking
at a 9% annual return for the Russell
2000 over the next 10 years now that’s
still a pretty damn good return so the
Russell 2000 still looking pretty
interesting into this earning season but
here’s the chart that I want to talk to
you guys about before real estate agents
and Brokers employed in the LT chart now
I I know that we’ve got quite a few
people in the in the uh real estate
business out there and I’m sure there is
clearly increased competition out there
because you know if you were a real
estate agent back in 2014 it might have
been tough out there but there weren’t
so many of you now have a look o there’s
a lot and what this usually brings is
speculation so clearly if there’s a lot
of real estate agents there’s a lot of
spec going on and last time we saw a
spec like this we were in this area now
we all know how that ended so this could
be a chart we may need to watch as well
because if real estate agents start to
drop off heavily that kind of shows you
the land boom is over if the land booms
over then we need to look at the debt
and then we need to see what’s going on
there but for now good times keep
rolling and it looks like the real
estate and in general pretty much
anything to do with that market is still
going gang busters in particular home
builders absolutely out of control right
now in the US so election year draw
Downs can we expect upwards of 10% yes
is 5 to 6% still pretty damn good yes so
5 to 6% which is what we just did is
still a very decent pullback in overall
election years -10 if we take out the
outliers being these two is kind of like
the average um that we usually expect so
can happen in in these types of times
and if we were tracking exactly what
tends to happen in election years then
we would expect that little bit of an
uptick we just saw and then maybe into
may we might finally get what they call
the sell in may now sell in May is
actually not that statistically likely
over the last decade and I think you’ll
see a ton of videos coming out saying
Salam May doesn’t exist well that’s true
but in election years where we’ve seen
such strength at the start salame did
exist and it wasn’t a huge sell it was
mostly just kind of a sideways action so
I don’t think investors should be
terrified but this is backed up by every
metric we’ve seen so far in terms of
correlation matrixes in terms of
anything to do with the overall election
years which we’re tracking basically 12
I’m sure you guys are sick of this but
12 in 1976 the most closely and both of
those had exceptionally good overall
returns after uh but they did have kind
of like a 3 month struggle and of course
we’re 1 month into that it may be
different we never can say these things
are 100% but so far in the price action
we’ve gone 20 we’ve bounced we’ve come
down now we make the decision whether
the Bulls want to push a new high if
they do that could be all we get if they
don’t and the 20weekly gets taken I’m
thinking 50 weekly is is a real
possibility here let’s jump over to the
earnings coming up So Meta was there and
mostly the story from that was as I
understand it they’re obviously going
plowing ahead with the metaverse which
the market doesn’t like they’re also
plowing ahead with a pretty decent spend
I think it’s 5 billion more I’m not
concerned about that obviously the spend
is there but really meta is still a cash
cow Microsoft and alphabet are up next
and those expected moves are in the
vicinity of plus – 6 for Google and plus
– 5 for Microsoft historically High
moves so this earning season is bigger
than ever before and meta we will look
at it in chart just a moment also I want
to mention that there was a huge dark
poool transaction that came out of
nowhere just before the meta
announcement so as we were rallying up
in the market a monster came out and
this is the bull 3x shares fun fun is it
a close I don’t know but it is a massive
trade so a huge one right just before
the meta announcement came through let’s
now take a look at the charts we’ve got
the vix sitting at around 16 which is
still at overall kind of bears and a
little bit of control of this Market
underneath 15 is historically a very big
turning point for markets generally so
vix at above 15 is pretty big deal as we
mentioned our bonds kind of indicators
are showing us here that while highi has
dropped off and it’s bounced back up in
general the usual corporate Market when
you take yields out of it when you take
all those things out of it it’s kind of
just like hovering around the zone so if
this then Fells through then you can
start to be a little bit more terrified
about the markets but I think bonds are
relatively stable yeah all things
considered let’s move over to the S&P
and liquidity so this is Central Bank
liquidity just m majorly hovering around
remember if this starts to drop off
further it suggests that the chance of a
sell is high
but this drop as we’ve already
demonstrated is something that normally
happens at around this time in the year
due to some of the fed’s control tools
in the markets what about us yields
still very high 4.65 for the 10 and
4.93 for the two so we’re still just
looking at basically one to two rate
Cuts that’s it over the next 1 to two
years Dow Jones Transportation average
really took a dive here in the last 24
hours again that’s a warning sign uh you
hit this resistance which we spoke about
it then sells big time in comparison to
the market so that’s a big deal and
therefore we need to look at xhb which
is home builders when these types of
markets start to dive a little bit you
can again start to say well is there
something a little bit more murky Under
The Horizon just keep an eye on them um
they are certainly both still I would
say a little bit down for Down Jones and
I would say neutral for the home
builders to up dollar Index still
covering it but it’s just FL around I do
expect over the next kind of 2 years
like one to two years that the dollar
will end up being lower I really do feel
that’s probably possible but for now
we’re open to both terms we’re at a res
there’s no doubt if we break to a new
high get ready for the dollar to go
super bullish if we end up starting to
fall down and we get through 104 I think
that’s probably the topping of yields
potentially and of course the dollar may
also weaken off that particular Point
copper still very strong at a resistance
point but still looking at that with
positive eyes moving forward now let’s
move over to gold and the 15-minute
chart so we mentioned the possibility of
gold coming down to a few areas so we’re
at the most traded on the way up we’ve
taken a bit of a change here this is
where the Bulls have to recommit because
I’m a little cautious on gold I think a
bull would be very excited if that was
done so as it moves through 2322 I would
say we’re moving up at this point is
certainly where I expect Bulls to try to
defend this Market but if it does take a
new low we’ve got to reset everything
and look towards you know another
falloff and with CTA starting to dump
their gold positions that’s also
something you would want to take into
consideration also take a look here at
the daily big rejection week after that
big strength week kind of neutralizes
itself and suggests that Gold’s still a
little bit weak some things or some
things that you could look at would be
Fibonacci retracements to the 618
retracement or of course this very
strong bull level that I’ve marked at
2172 that would be freaking gold TR is
out but I think more than healthy in the
market us oil still in the good bull
Zone still selling off the 83 area I
like the great bull Zone I don’t know
who’s winning this battle right now I
guess the overall Trends up the
short-term time frame trend is down so
Bears on the small time frames and Bulls
on the big time frames for oil bit
trapped now let’s move over to the Tesla
trade and I’ll just grab that FIB back
out again so you’ll notice it came back
up to the 618 Fib so the golden pocket
got hit and then it retraced and it
ended up as a longle dogee right on
where we have support support becoming
resistance I do think this is a pretty
pivotal point for Tesla and it could be
a turning point because it held a 12%
plus that’s pretty strong it got big
volume that’s pretty strong I expect
volume to maintain for quite a few days
and we wanted to do that so what I would
love to see it do is something like
this and then if it did that I would say
the Bottom’s in for Tesla so as it goes
through that previously most traded Zone
that would be the bottom in for Tesla
now if Tesla does
bounce you’d have to wait for that so
there’s a quite a few alteres here but
yes things are starting to definitely
look a little bit better and you might
say well it’s just words but do remember
words are powerful and it can create
hype and remember the word AI is the
most powerful so at this stage yeah they
haven’t really fronted it but Tesla’s
done in the past in terms of fronting a
product and I think humanoids in
particular is going to be storyline you
see in about a year’s time 6 months time
which everyone’s going to start
rabbiting on about so don’t be surprised
if Tesla might have just found its
temporary low what do you think though
in the comments down below you’ve got to
be open to both ends AAPL a little bit
of strength back at those that zone of
support becomes resistance too early to
tell on this stock semiconductors still
showing a little bit of weakness still
at their overall bounce level the first
bounce level being the 20weekly you can
see here smci in particular coping it a
little bit in the last 24 hours and
Nvidia also selling off pretty
aggressively in fact from the open to
the selloff that was about
5.62 now for NVIDIA traders that really
want to be in is this a zone for you
well you’ll notice that again it’s at
around that 618 so some people that
would be looking for the bounce they
would say you know what that’s good
enough for me for my first entry if
you’re thinking meta maybe Google maybe
Microsoft one of those don’t perform
then 68 is the ultimate level for this
particular stock that’s the level of you
know filling a lot of Gap and getting
into quite a lot of excitement so for
now is a dead cap bounce it came off the
support support resistance if you want
to be more sure about things then you
generally would want to break out of
this Supply and then that begins the
next rally advance Advanced decline
lines will also be coming with you at
those points Aussie 200 yeah just hit
the 20 coming down a little bit still
quite strong obviously waiting for the
US lead and this Market oh wow uh China
Market absolutely on fire everyone is
starting to probably look at it now I
would think inverse Head and Shoulders
active as of today’s close um in general
very strong market we’ve been talking
about this 10cent leading the pack ai ai
ai that’s the kind of storyline I guess
that’s going on and negative sentiment
is out of control people are so negative
on this I’ve seen so many articles about
how it’s the end of the world in there
um remember the stocks are down 80 to
90% so this is this is pretty strong
very strong momentum pick off exact the
type of path I like to see and I’d like
to see this thing going to 18,000 so
very impressive and it just shows you
having that abundance mindset going
throughout you know we’re seeing this
through so many markets if you look at
the UK 100 it’s not just that particular
Market if you look at the UK 100 it’s
also broken through and been up in
recent weeks since we announced that
Weekly closure so yeah just lots of
different markets out there for
opportunity even the German 40 doing
better than the US market it’s because
this isn’t a broad sell off what it is
is a sell off through Tech and all of
those mag 7 stocks have been sold and
that’s a good sign because again it’s
part of a healthy Market it’s not to say
it’s all bearish but it’s the type of
thing that you do want to see unless
you’re of course you’re leveraged to the
wrong side us 2K still finding a little
bit of Bounce actually holding pretty
well so when you look at the Russell
it’s holding up pretty well and when you
scroll down you’ll notice it actually
did break out our 1980 level which
suggest that maybe even pullbacks could
be met by bull demand I think 1950 could
be a good area for Bulls from a
technical Zone to regain control of the
Russell 2K broke the downward trend line
broke quite a thing few things and I’ll
just see here if there’s a trend line
through the top here uh there is but
it’s nowhere near so we’ll find out us
100 now comes up hits the resistance
which we mentioned our red box sells off
meta did that of course a new low watch
reaction here we remain very strong at
16, 325 which should be that 10%
correction and if you actually look at
the NASDAQ you might not think this but
from the top to low here you’re getting
an 8% discount you’re still getting a 6%
discount which takes you all the way
back to January um and in fact down in
those lows it took you back to December
of last year so it yeah there’s not as
much gain as you might think in the
market when you take a look at it from
that perspective let’s have a look now
at uh the old Bitcoin and the Bulls
could not take control it got pushed
down
again uh oh it’s tough guys it’s a
really tough one I mean the trend is up
the sideways action is here and why say
it’s tough is because we know that this
Supply continues to act as Supply or
resistance and the market has been
pulling back yes in here is where the
buyers would need to recommit but it
kind of gives you those you know I I’m
just wondering whether we can get that
30% average uh to the downside look you
take control of this you’re pushing
positive and no doubt there’s a lot of
positivity I’m going to have a look on
the weekly to see whether we’ve got some
commitment of Traders coming in if they
start to look at the buy end as well
similar to ctas that could be a very
good sign commercial hedging so we’ll
we’ll check it out but Bitcoin murky at
the moment in terms of news we have
Friday’s news being the call PC price
index that we need to watch and as
always if you want to keep on top of all
of the biggest things going on right now
remember to subscribe hit that Bell icon
thanks so much for watching guys follow
us also in the links in the description
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Brokers especially if you’re from
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platforms thanks so much guys bye for
now

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