Q1 GDP and a Massive Mining Takeover | Bloomberg Podcasts

Q1 GDP and a Massive Mining Takeover | Bloomberg Podcasts

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[Music]
news this is the Bloomberg surveillance
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Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg
business app here’s the right guy to
talk about the partial derivatives of
the algebraic function known as American
GDP uh he majors in physics for Mr peek
and the crew at Morgan Stanley portfolio
solutions group CIO Jim Karen joins us
right now which of the alphabets soup of
the function matters the consumption
investment government or
NX thank you Tom um well look I think
all of it matters but right now I think
consumption probably matters the most
70% of GDP right 70% of GDP it it’s
something that what we’re looking at
today is really about the strength of
the consumer the jobs data all of that
stuff is going to matter quite a bit um
that’s been probably the most surprising
element of this period of time is that
we’ve been able to bring employ um the
inflation rates down but um the jobs
data has actually stayed relatively
strong which is kept surprisingly strong
GDP numbers does the yield space pause
on the 2-year 5% yield does the yield
space describe Ellen zenner’s
economics you know I I I think it does
it’s just really a question of like if
we have the 2-year yield flirting with
five % that makes sense in an
environment where we believe the FED may
only cut possibly one time this year and
and that’s really indicative of the
strength and you know we’re going to see
what the first uh quarter GDP numbers
come out uh to look like in in the next
four minutes or so um but what’s also
very important about that though is
really tomorrow’s pce number the
inflation number so good growth like 2
and a half% growth potentially you know
as a potential growth or 2.7% is what’s
expected on the Bloomberg surveys for um
uh for for pce and you know for GDP it’s
2.5% um if that growth number is good
that’s fine as long as inflation’s low
but if inflation turns out to be high
with strong growth then the FED has a
problem the FED has no problem with
strong growth and low inflation full
employment strong growth you know stable
prices that’s what the FED wants so what
are the good Folks at Mortgage stainle
Investment Management doing in terms of
getting position here for a Fed that I
guess we now the markets now come to the
conclusion as you mentioned they’re not
going to be cutting as as much here what
do we do yeah so so so I I think really
you know the key element here is when we
manage multi asset portfolios across
fixed income and Equity one of the
things that we have to think about is um
how do we how do we use bonds to hedge
equities and one of the conclusions that
we’ve come up with is that you may not
want to be as long duration in periods
of you know potential turmoil like the
correction that we’re seeing in the
markets today in equities as much as you
had in the past and the reason is is
that I think that you know the bull
market and bonds in my view has ended
we’re likely to go sideways in a range
in interest rates for a long period of
time um in which case having extra long
duration in your portfolios these days
is probably not the the most OP some
numbers on that I mean I mean Muni Bond
people short duration 20 years CU
they’re all y dogs well give me a give
me a year statistic instead of this
baloney duration okay yeah no good point
and and it’s good Clarity to add so so
the aggregate index uh for the US is
about 6 and a half years of duration so
that’s generally what people think of as
neutral duration what I would say is
that you might want to be somewhat
underweight that and have maybe
somewhere on the order of like five to
five and a half years of duration so
just slightly lower than index duration
I think is a more optimal hedge against
the broad returns in in in your fixed
income and Equity portfolios now that
may be Financial Market heresy to say go
underweight duration and it reduces risk
because typically people think adding
bonds and adding duration is what
reduces risk and that’s historically
been true but that’s been true in a bond
bull market and not Mr Karen on this to
say the Le we’re 90 seconds away from a
hugely anticipated GDP number let’s
review this uh the quarter ends
1231 and they take a month to get it out
so now the quarter ends 3:31 March 31st
and get out your calendar and four five
six weeks along we get the first look at
GDP and I thought Veronica Clark was was
good Victoria Clark it’s City Group y of
saying recently the first look the
second look the third look have been
pretty smooth you know it hasn’t been
adjustable so I think there’s even more
weight here the Atlanta GDP number Paul
2.7% the Bloomberg survey 2.5% yep so I
mean this economy the growth has slowed
but this growth is still there
inflation’s coming down yes it’s still
sticky but you put all that together and
it as Jim was just mentioning it kind of
suggests this fed doesn’t have to and
you know get over it skis to I’m glad we
got the GDP price index 1.6% was a prior
and it explodes up to a 3% number here
we’re going to see in 15 seconds there’s
also cor C pce price index but then
don’t confuse that with the inflation
data that we see tomorrow gets a little
confusing Jim Karen will explain that if
he stays please around here it’s
Bloomberg surveillance here is the data
coming out we get trade data first it’s
pretty much a little bit larger deficit
but I’m not going to go wholesale
inventories I don’t understand claims is
a terrible number are you kidding me
207,000 and now we get the GDP
statistics and this will be Market
moving 2.5 5% the survey it comes in
diminished Jim Karen
1.6% personal consumption lighter GDP
price index 3% is
3.1% and core pce price index I guess
I’m going to say explodes maybe that’s
too large
3.4 up to a
3.7% statistic and the vix launches here
the 2-year yield uh 4.9 2% I I think
there’s enough wow here just in the
headline numbers where there’s almost
confusion in the market I think there is
confusion in the market I’m see we’re
seeing the S&P futures weaken a little
bit here down about 1% on the S&P and
just looking at the short term of the
yield curve uh two-year treasur is up
one basis point
4.94% but again the GDP annualized
quarter on quarter kind of the headline
number 1.6% growth there in the first
quarter consensus was 2.5% as Thomas
mentioned and I’ll also highlight prior
period was 3.4% so if you’re looking for
a deceleration uh in the economy this
data certainly kind of bears it Chris
ansy driving our coverage for uh top
live and he says simply 1.6% growth rate
is lower than any of the 59 estimates of
the Bloomberg service of course except
Jim Karen he nailed it uh but what we’ve
got is a detering market nasc off
Facebook
1.3% uh as well I’m watching the 2-year
yield 4 94 yes it’s gone green we have a
higher yield there uh
4.95% yeah really starting to move like
there was almost a 30 second delay there
when the data came out uh Paul people
are just trying to grasp it here but
again as uh as Bloomberg live were just
folling the reporting uh Bloomberg live
you know really talking about a
significant underperformance there in
the US economy finally starting to to
slow and he think about the long and
variable legs of the higher rates maybe
we’re seeing it in the fascinating to
we’ll get to Jim Karen here in a moment
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commonwealth.com to learn more Jim Karan
the numbers I think had enough shock
factor and you know I’ve been doing this
a few years the markets didn’t move for
30 seconds like stunned well uh you know
this is a big Miss um and like you said
you know many economists no nobody
really had this number I mean this is um
look one of the big positives of the
first quarter was that there was a
narrative that we were just growing very
very strong and this is unwinding a lot
of that narrative so now this is
actually a very friendly number for the
FED yeah because what the FED has been
saying is that we’re going to get this
economic Cooling and we don’t have to
worry about potentially these inflation
numbers that have been coming out hotter
than you know hotter than expected that
it’s all going to correct itself this is
a major step in the right direction it
starts to put June back on the table
think so potentially it puts June back
on the table now now we’re not seeing
that right now in terms of the price
action of um of treasuries now of course
everything’s going to depend on is there
aevision to this was there some type of
an anomaly we’ve got to go through the
numbers we have to go through the math
of this whole thing but um but but
effectively a slowing like this is going
to bring down some of the inflation
angst that’s been in the markets yeah I
mean I think it’s really interesting I
looking at the WIP function to see how
that’s going to start reflecting any
changes in the Market’s expectations for
the fed and you’re right it it seemed
like the market we started the year with
six Cuts potentially we got down to boy
two or even fewer than than two just as
recently as yesterday and maybe this
will cause the FED to maybe think about
um being a little more dobish and and
there’s one other thing that I I really
want bring I think this is very very
important is that earnings expectations
are highly linked to GDP growth so I
know we’re talking about the bond market
a lot let’s talk about the equity Market
just for a second here if earnings
growth is slower in the first quarter
that’s going to change a lot of people’s
full year earnings estimates for
2024 and potentially even going forward
so the equity markets are actually
responding more strongly on this because
it’s basically making many analysts take
down some of their robust earnings
Jim I got eight ways to go here but let
me go to what I learned in school you
know the textbooks you have physics Envy
which is why Karen’s here and the answer
is you got to hang your head on one
thing and to me it’s a 10-year inflation
adjusted yield and forget about the math
and let’s not impress people with a log
on a semi- log basis I’m getting out to
a real stress point at
2.26% yeah the real yields are are
certainly moving higher and into the
point where this has historic demarked a
a bit of a slowing of economic activity
but none of this is happening in
synchronicity to the extent that one of
the things that we’re also seeing is the
prices paid components and the pricing
components of of the internals of the
GDP number are actually um causing the
the bond market a little bit of angst
here so on one hand we have a weak
headline print on the other hand we have
some inflation and pricing pressures So
in theory inflation is a lagging
indicator so inflation should fall on
these things but if unless there’s
something that’s just going well what’s
Ellen say stop I mean you got a team of
14 people Karen’s there with two interns
they’re from Bowden but Ellen Zentner’s
got like 25 people what do they say
about the disinflation vector in Morgan
Stanley yeah so so so look I mean it’s
as as Ellen likes to put it it’s going
to be a slow bumpy path lower so you
know inflation is likely to come down
it’s just a question of does it come
down in a linear fashion where people
are comfortable with the pay and but the
trajectory nobody’s really disagreeing
with the direction of inflation
everybody is most people agree that it’s
coming down it’s just a question of is
it coming down fast enough for the FED
to start their rate cutting cycle and
that’s the debate so what Ellen pushed
out in terms of her uh fed forecast was
from June to July that the First Rate
cut would start to come in July and I I
don’t think that this number might not
change that in in in many ways okay is
there an iner Force here right now are
we getting to where there’s enough
yields or on a truly on a physics basis
I make jokes about it but seriously are
we getting a weight towards an inertial
force of higher yields yeah so so so I I
think as you were saying earlier you
know many people came into this year
overweight fixed income long duration
and and this has been correcting now the
positives around this is that at this
backup and yield if you’re looking at a
multi asset portfolio right you can
start to think about owning us
treasuries you can think about owning
bonds high quality bonds now as a
reasonable hedge against your equity and
you can actually potentially get some
return from these levels Sweeney’s going
to get his 5% twoyear yield cup of
coffee out on YouTube live Chad James
with a real smart Insight stag flation
Jamie Diamond Nails it yep I mean that’s
really what we’re talking about I mean
you know you mentioned David Weston he’s
going to be with Professor Summers and
Larry’s going to pick it up and go here
we are but I mean that’s what the the
research papers Paul are going to look
like Jim Karen one more question we’re
going to go to Dr Wong and we’re going
to bring Jim Karen back after Dr Wong
hey Jim I’m looking at the two-year just
today up six basis points as Tom said
were
4.99% and you’ve mentioned fixed inome
as a hedge for equities that did not
work in 2022 that 60/40 portfolio did
not work for anybody is that still
something you guys think about is that
still something we should keep in our
toolbox yeah you know I mean we have to
think about how we use bonds to hedge
and and and the and the idea was that
you could passively buy fixed income and
it would just represent a great hedge
and this is one of the reasons why I
think you should hold hold less fixed
income exposure in terms of duration to
hedge against your uh to hedge against
your Equity portfolio so to have
slightly less like you know I was saying
six and a half years of duration is the
is the index average that’s that you
know that’s what’s considered neutral
I’m saying you should have maybe five or
five and a half years of of of duration
so I do think we need to think
differently about this um we have to
remember that for 40 years from 1981 to
2021 Bonds were in a bull market today I
think they’re largely going to move
sideways so your expected returns will
the coupon out of fix Jim let’s finish
up with you so you can go back and
publish what part of the yield Curve
will be most affected by sub 2%
GDP so you know look in theory what it
should be is is the 10-year yield so so
in theory the curve should start to
flatten down because if you have a
weaker growth economy and it shows that
you’re going into a slow period and a
slow patch longer duration actually will
be a reasonable hedge in that particular
environment so the front end right now
and I think the the the bond market is
looking at one thing that’s a consumer
side that’s the prices side the equity
Market is looking at the whole picture
and it’s looking at that 1.6 versus the
2.5 and I think that is the um I think
that’s the mismatch right now in in the
market so right now we have bonds Bond
returns and Equity returns highly
correlated that’s dangerous High
correlation is dangerous so there’s no
place to hide right so if you bought
bonds to hedge this number you lost at
least right now at this point but like
Anna was saying I I do think that some
of this bond sell off will start to get
reversed once it gets digest yes it’s
you know Imports are very important
components I got to make some news here
today I mean there’s no course we got to
make some news Ian lingan and we’re
sorry we can’t get Ian lingan in from
bimo he’s got to go into a Bank of
Montreal conference call but Ian Lincoln
has said at some point the tenure goes
price up yield down is this the moment
where we finally get a catalyst for a
lower 10-year yield that just as one
example brings mortgage relief Across
America so in my opinion the answer is
yes I I do think that you know 475 in
the 10-year yield I know we’re kind of
close to that right now so let’s call us
let’s let’s say that let say that we’re
just about there I think that’s a
reasonable Line in the Sand to draw and
it’s it’s a place where I would start to
take some Bond risk Paul round it up
four digits I know you want to jump in
round it up Paul four digits 5% in the
2-year yield exactly right hey Jim as
you go back to your offices at Morgan
Stanley Investment Management you sit
down with your PMS this morning are you
guys going to change anything in your
portfolios change your outlook change
your
allocations think about it maybe a world
that maybe stag flation is something we
have to think about well I I don’t know
I mean I I think it’s a little early to
call for stack flation but you know so
we’ve moved more towards a neutral
posture at this point um so we’ve taken
our Equity from overweight to
underweight end of the first quarter um
but I think in bonds we are going to
start to take our duration up a little
bit higher because these yields are
appetizing so that that’s likely the
next move for
us go ahead Paul one more question to
Karen we Jersey’s having a tantrum it’s
take your daughter to work did you bring
any a kids in no my kids are too old my
kids are too old I go to afterthought
today I go you want to come in to work
with Dad she’s looking at me like you
know is it that or go to Eli’s on
Madison Avenue and chat on $25 at
cheeseburgers exactly you know I mean
what you you know what you GNA do
Elena’s waiting Paul get a question J
real quick what do you think this the
fed’s going to do looking at this data
today so I I I still think it’s Po’s
remarks from from a week ago still hold
I think he’s still waiting to see more
confidence we still have to see those
inflation numbers come out softer
consistently yeah this has been great I
really look forward to talk about
triangulation I’m going to blame Steve
roach for this maybe there’s somebody
else they fight like cats and dogs at
Morgan Stanley they’ve got my greatest
respect the next meeting of Karen zetner
and Mike Wilson that’s going to be it’s
going to be we should a remote broadcast
we should we should do a live broadcast
just like the NFL draft we’ll have to
see Jim Karen thank you so much
particularly for coming in today greatly
appreciate that
[Music]
perfect person perfect time constant
Hunter joins us working with Julia
cornado at micro policy uh perspectives
conston I want to go to the eye I want
to go to the business Spirit given sub
2% GDP with an inflation impulse I have
a 10-year real yield back to 2009 levels
where it pretty much sustained 2004 to
the crisis and then 200 n does a higher
inflation adjusted yield does that begin
to impinge now on American
Business well that’s the that is the
question Tom and I think it has been
impinging on American Business right
when we look at Financial conditions for
those who can access the capital markets
Financial conditions look fairly
accommodative right we have higher
Equity markets people are going to the
to the bond market and issuing debt when
you look at Financial conditions for
households when you look at Financial
conditions for small and medium-sized
businesses they are tighter however with
that said we are still seeing record new
business formation so there is something
happening under the hood of this economy
that is different than previous cycles
and as we know history Rhymes it doesn’t
repeat very good um constant obviously
the market was looking for if you look
at consensus was looking for a Slowdown
in GDP uh in this quarter but not this
slow does that change your thoughts
about I don’t know what the FED will do
what investors should do what you guys
uh should do uh their macr policy
perspectives yeah well as you can
imagine our Bloomberg chat has been very
active this morning with amongst
ourselves and with our clients right so
uh the view of course is this makes it a
more difficult calculus for the fed and
certainly that higher inflation number
gives cause I will say though if you
think about so there’s two things and
they’re not necessarily congruent things
because we’re at a time when we’re in an
inflection point and inflection points
data gets very funky right and we’ve
been pointing that out with some of the
contradictions that we see within the
labor market data both the official data
and some of the web scraping that we’re
doing with regard to company intentions
to high a and fire right and so what we
have here is we have stronger Services
consumption which quite honestly I think
economists have been waiting for that
outside Services consumption for several
quarters and goods consumption just
persisted in being strong finally we
have the decline in Goods consumption
that means that in all likelihood this
low to negative pricing we’re seeing in
Goods will continue that will give some
relief to overall CPI const I I want to
talk constant about the bigger picture
the male and Paul gets all the love you
know Lisa gets the love notes constant I
get a hate mail and the hate mail I get
is simple
you guys are nuts most of us feel like
it’s a recession and we’re getting
crushed by inflation if we have a run
rate sub 2% GDP and the the fancy people
are living large what portion of America
now is in re in recession with an
elevated inflation rate it’s got to be
what half the
country well that’s an excellent
question and I have to delve into the
numbers to give an exact give an exact
figure but but you bring up a very good
point and as you know every time we get
the CPI numbers I do a a table that
shows the annualized pace of individual
components since February 2020 and while
yes the month-over-month pace seems to
be doing better and the year-over-year
piece pace is doing better than the
height what people are anchoring to with
is that cumulative increase that they
have to pay and they can’t get out of
paying things like for example like
vehicle insurance it’s not easy to
substitute homeowner Insurance not easy
to substitute and and these really do
take a bite now with that said on
vehicle insurance it looks like that was
a oneoff three state Regulators um
California New York and New Jersey
allowed insurers to increase the vehicle
insurance Price Right so that looks like
it was a oneoff but still the the mood
is that they that it’s hard to control
where price increases are coming from
and they’re continue to be rolling
surprises blue brick surveillance we
always go to anecdotal evidence joining
us now Paul Sweeny with a hate mail from
New Jersey how bad is the insurance
story it’s it is I mean it’s uh it’s
crazy here but that’s just you know one
of the many costs of living in these are
fixed costs these are not like variable
costs I mean it’s like Hamburg very
quickly or a data check markets
deteriorate SPX a negative 1.3% NASDAQ
negative 1.7% vix is actually pretty
quiescent still under 17
16.86 and that 10-year real yield sum it
all up up six massive basis points
2.29% that takes us back to 2009 and
even back to 2006 and Tom a red headline
across the Bloomberg terminal Traders
push back timing a First Rate Fed rate
cut to December Constance do you even
maybe take it a little bit further and
think about is this a Fed even
contemplating a rate hike is that
something is possible I don’t think
we’re ready for a rate hike because one
you know concominant with this weaker
growth is going to be weaker jobs data
uh so we push back the First Rate cut to
September but I really think there’s a
case for we get up to 5% on the 10 year
before this is all over interesting all
right constant thank you so much for
joining us constant Hunter senior
advisor macro policy
[Music]
perspectives John stus of opco John how
do I stay in markets on days like this
well well thanks for having me the on
the show uh Tom I’ve got to say this I
think the question you know that Traders
ask right away this is that should I go
or should I stay you know like the the
old hit song uh and there’s a p passing
fancy potential here capricious nature
of the fast reaction but for investors
uh who are investing for anywhere from 2
three 5 seven years forward you know out
uh it’s a a quick moment to pause and
Ponder check out the babies that are
getting chucked out with the bath water
whether it’s it’s uh in in technology
Industrials consumer discretionary and a
host of of of other uh cyclical stocks
in particular we’d have to think is
worth uh checking the opportunity that’s
available because the trend we believe
is our friend and the trend is led by
the FED which has acted incredibly
responsible this fed funds hike cycle
reflecting what we call the U the Ben
Bank
uh uh Legacy yeah John comes on the
Market’s -600 and he lifts it down to
580 he’s a force exactly hey John John
what do you think um you know some of
the reporting coming out and some of the
words coming off of Wall Street this
morning is maybe calling to question
whether the FED will cut at all in 24
how do you think the fed’s going to look
at some of this data and then of course
the important pce data tomorrow I think
we’ll have to see what what happens with
that data tomorrow I think when Mike
mcke was talking he really had some some
important spots to consider there but
what I would say is this is is
effectively you know we came into this
year uh when a lot of people were
expecting I think it went from it was it
was H five to seven up to 11 Cuts people
thought the economy was falling apart
apparently we looked at it we thought
the Fed was going to cut likely two
which rubbed up against the the fed’s
three uh sort of intimated cut that they
were talking about early on and I think
they’re still they they still had that
who knows what where we’re headed in
terms of the near-term commentary but we
we’ve got to say we think the economy
you know as was mentioned earlier the
the consumer is good business remarkably
resilient you know we’re still early in
the ear season but some some things have
good okay I’m going to make the
observation that money market funds are
going to become more comfortable here
Sweeney’s on the
5.02% 2-year yield that’s going to be
comfortable here and you’re going to
tell me yeah but share BuyBacks are
going to click in are share BuyBacks to
the rescue of the market I I don’t think
it’s just share BuyBacks I would I would
think it really has to do with with the
fact that earnings and revenue
particularly earnings growth has been
significantly resilient and revenue
growth hasn’t really uh you know on an
idiosyncratic basis that can surely
disappoint but overall it shows a
resilience that is maintained which
likely tells us corporations are better
and naturally so after 15 years of
successive crises at navigating tougher
environments and with with AI just where
AI is today not where it’s going to be
in the future this is this is likely
what’s going on EI eio Paul stus is
crater in the market Nega – 620 on the
doubt st’s fault John I know you guys
took your your year end price Target up
to I guess 5,500 on the S&P what’s kind
of the the the driver is that an
earnings driven Market or is that a Fed
driven Market how do you what are the
drivers there combination of the two
It’s a combination of the FED it’s
earnings driven it it has to do with
Innovation and it’s uh as we saw the the
rally from the uh late October of last
year broadening to the other sectors
expectations that that innovation will
feed into other sectors other than
technology and consumer discretionary
and Industrials and within that that
kind of a of a feature the nice thing is
you have several things playing it’s not
uh it it’s it’s a fundamentally a better
story towards a
normalization where where Bond issuers
pay for the privilege of borrowing money
Bond buyers get something in return it
hurts the it hurts the fast fast crowd
you know because like to be highly
leveraged and they will protest the
fed’s reluctance to cut rates
drastically and I think I think po does
not want it he certainly doesn’t want to
be Arthur Burns and he doesn’t want to
have to become Paul vuler again you know
I’ve been doing this I came in during
the period where where vuler was
beginning his second term and so I’ve
lived with the FED through 15 years of
greenpan and Greenspan was almost a
science therapy hour
he was he was Liv with with with
inflation that was sticky we’re almost
at negative 700 in the doubt go away
John suus with us from opco we really
look forward to his research re report
from Oppenheimer and Company he has been
in this market he has enjoyed a
multi-year uh bull market
[Music]
you’re Jay look at the front pages and
because children are in the building
they’re appropriate stories today Lisa
what do you got all right yes we’re
keeping a PG for the kids today Okay so
we’ve heard a lot about um a lot of
workers being afraid that AI is going to
take over their jobs that’s that’s a big
thing uh but we had one it company who’s
telling the financial times that
technology could do away with call
centers you have a lot of the call
centers this is the head of Tata
consultancy Services said AI is going to
result in yeah they they definitely know
especially over in India um quote
minimal need for call centers as soon as
this year as soon as a year and so it’s
going to show that it’s going to have a
vast across Asia and Beyond but you know
how they shove you to chat you know you
need chat and there’s no person on the
other end it’s just a computer algorithm
it doesn’t work that’s my sophisticated
analysis it’s frustrating you’re sitting
there you’re like representative like I
just just want to talk to a person why
is this going to work well they’re
saying that um what’s going to happen is
that theck chat Bots are going to be
able to analyze the customer’s
transaction history and do much of the
work that are done by those call center
agents they’re saying they’re not going
to read them I need I need some new Tang
zero right now I love sending a message
into our control room telling Michael
the lazy puke sleeping right now cuz
it’s take your children to work with go
get me a coffee and a Ting zero you it’s
about time we put these kids to work
what that’s next so we’re talking about
kids we’re talking about girls I love
this it’s a girl power story sorry here
we go okay the Queens Park ladies it’s
an Under 12 soccer team in England they
are undefeated they’re playing in a boy
soccer Le okay so they’re kicking butt
they’re hoping to inspire younger girls
to get into the sport they’ve won all 22
matches um and at first the boys were
laughing you know when they saw these
girls come out and and who’s got the
last you know who’s behind this you know
who’s behind this who Muhammad L Aran oh
I have told we were out having a
beverage in London me and John pharoh
and Dr L AR
and we’re you know the two of us we’re
trying to get him to pick up the tab and
we’re saying doctor he did pretty well
in the investment business folks and we
said Muhammad would you just buy
QPR and he’s he’s trying he’s trying to
decide should he bu QPR which is in the
Champions League or should he go big
yeah like the Le you know by Arsenal or
whatever but the QPR ladies are getting
it done they are under 12 very yeah but
really yeah yeah and the reason they did
is because when they first started years
ago there weren’t there wasn’t a girls
League um so they didn’t have the
competition so that’s why they joined
the boys they didn’t have a girls League
keeping up it was about six years ago
when the club started yeah and they
didn’t have a girls League back then so
well girls Sports here I mean you know
your daughter huge girl Sports here are
really big I know when I was younger I
was um an athlete I played with the boys
on the basketball team they didn’t have
Middle School no stop stop stop stop how
many D1 schools are going to recruit
your daughter Z she’s like huge no she’s
like she’ll go D2
D3 okay D1 is tough D1 is tough but um
and and it’s a big workload with the
school and the D1 schedule she hit a
ball the other night which landed in
Staten Island I mean she did another
homewor she did okay I’m telling you
girl power love it power um so since
we’re talking about kids a new report
says us birth rates actually fell last
year to the lowest level in more than 40
years so this is from the US national
Center of health statistics it fell 2%
3.59 million um not just the US birth
rates and other countries worldwide and
we all know why the experts are saying
you know P Paid Family Le Sky rcking
Healthcare child care costs it’s all the
same um but Peak bir rates shifted to
women in their 30s and 40s those rates
declined in 2023 from the year earlier
so my four four Offspring that’s an un
rare Cas R okay it’s just it’s just
being IR four children anymore I think
it’s the one thing the one thing I
learned in the pandemic other than
listen to the medical Pros thank you all
the people that saved us at madna and
fizer as as well the number one thing I
learned is we lived all the evidence
that our child care system is broken
yeah we we all lived it did everyone
yeah the child care is crazy I mean Matt
Miller during this time came back from
Germany where they have paid child care
and it just and his wife was just
shocked that that we don’t have that
here in the US she said wait this is
United States you guys don’t have paid
Healthcare so women can go to work and
do all that kind of stuff and then
during the pandemic of
course that much more huge deal huge
deal are you done or there one more no
this one’s for you now I know you like
your Doc Martin Tom but this is a new
thing you may have to switch to okay it
is a snower or a sneer I saw this okay
it is a cross between a sneaker and a
loafer all right so new balance is
coming out with it it’s in August it’s
kind of looks like a snck it has a great
out mesh um but it has no laces so
they’re hoping that this is different
from you know the slip-on shoes
different from that this is more highend
so they’re hoping ex you’re not going
toar here here’s here’s where I got
really disappointed one of my alltime
favorite people who I look up to David
Weston David always dressed to the nines
he is now with his wonderfully T tailor
suits coming in I mean he’s a player he
is he is wearing these kind of sneak
things with
and if David Weston can go casual M the
world’s coming to Michael mcke again
another one I’m just not you know in the
at the in the hallway at the front door
where Mrs Keane says shut up and throw
this out she has my last pair of decent
Bower skates like they’re not they’re
just below like what the NHL people wear
and I think they’re going I’m I’m not
putting those on again oh I don’t think
so but are you going to get me in old
fart sneakers without laces we SN I you
know I may have to hire somebody to
Michael rain do you want to come over
and tie my shoelaces it’ll be it’ll be
great that’s true you don’t have to tie
the laces just slip them on this is the
Bloomberg surveillance podcast bringing
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[Music]

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF (http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyApril 25th, 2024
Featuring:

Jim Caron, Co-CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on duration and hedging an equity selloff as well as the GDP release
Constance Hunter, Senior Advisor at MacroPolicy Perspectives, on US GDP, tomorrow’s PCE data, and sustainable economic growth in the US
John Stolzfus, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer, on market reactions and path for interest rate cuts by the Fed
Bloomberg’s Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines

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