New Weapons Emerging in Multiple Wars (Global Connections)

New Weapons Emerging in Multiple Wars (Global Connections)

[Music]
welcome back to think Tech I’m J Fel
this is Global Connections today we’re
going to talk about new weapons new
weapons emerging in multiple Wars
there’s nothing like a war to develop
new weapons that’s where they get
perfected and for this discussion we
have Carl Baker the senior advisor of
the Pacific Forum uh to help us
understand what weapons have emerged and
what weapons are likely to emerge as we
go forward uh both in Israel and in
Ukraine welcome to the show Carl good be
back Jay it’s a a topic that I don’t
spend a lot of time thinking about but
it’s it’s an important topic because we
certainly are in the midst of Wars these
days and it doesn’t look like that’s
going to stop anytime
soon yeah well you know back back in
October 7th we were really surprised to
see mean I was I think a lot of people
were gliders gliders when when’s the
last time we saw gliders in the war um
and we saw these techniques with the
motorcycles that the kind of technique
War by motorcycle war by hostage taking
uh War by atrocity
War by tunnels this is all kind of new
um but but since that time we’ve seen a
lot more weapons that have been I don’t
want to say
underground that have emerged overground
and and these wars both of these wars
have demonstrated at least to a
substantial degree um that there’s
weapons development going on in the
world not just in the in the in the
Waring factions but elsewhere uh who
sell weapons uh or sometimes give them
away um to the Waring faction so what we
have here is a a crucible of new weapons
and I suggest it’s important for us to
look at that because a these wars aren’t
finished there may be more weapons come
out maybe more in the pipeline and B new
weapons especially sophisticated
high-tech weapons change the
possibilities for future Wars um so uh
this will you know inform us as to what
will happen in the future of future Wars
so what are you what are your thoughts
what are the most remarkable weapons
that you have
them well I mean all the Ultimate Weapon
of course is the nuclear the the
hydrogen bomb you know I mean that’s
that’s the one that has sort of changed
the definition of of warfare in some
ways that it’s the ultimate Ultimate
Weapon that we have the capacity to
eliminate civilization as we know it and
you know and that has has spawned a
whole a whole several Generations now of
of weapons that are are much less
powerful yet they’re more sophisticated
in the sense that they go faster they’re
more lethal they’re they’re more more
autonomous and you you have you have all
these weapons for example you know the
the introduction of drones has changed
Warfare and the not not everything is
high-tech you know a drone isn’t isn’t
all that sophisticated and I mean I
think the the remarkable thing that I
saw just in the last two weeks is the
attack from Iran you know in in in two
ways one is the fact that Iran was able
to to launch sophisticated missiles
drones and all kinds of stuff at Israel
and Israel managed to eliminate all of
that with some help from friends but for
the most part it was it was the Israeli
uh Iron Dome system a defensive system
that actually stop all these all these
projectiles from entering Israel so you
know so I think that’s what’s happening
I think with with which you think about
the the nature of warfare and the nature
of these weapons is yes you still have
the the Ultimate Weapon nuclear weapon
as the most powerful and the one that’s
still in limited dis limited Supply to a
few major actors in the world and that’s
why we are still concerned about nuclear
proliferation when when you see a
country like North Korea developing
nuclear weapons the potential for Iran
developing nuclear weapons you know we
we we really are concerned about that
because that that raises the risk of the
end of civilization you know the worst
kind of War you can have but then what
you also have is you have War Warfare on
a much smaller scale where you you can
have somebody like the houthi rebels uh
knocking out or capturing ships of
threatening threatening commercial ships
uh moving through that that area of the
world you know so so you have a wide
range of weapons and a lot W wide range
of applications of those weapons that
that make it really difficult to figure
out what do you focus on you know if you
look at the Americans the Americans are
are stuck with a bunch of Legacy systems
like old submarines that are becoming
more and more vulnerable to to sensors
that can that can figure out where they
are in the ocean they’re still stuck
with a bunch of old bomber aircraft that
are are seemingly less useful than they
were 50 years ago 60 years ago when they
were originally built you know and and
the army of course still has tanks for
you know unclear reasons sometimes of uh
what are they going to do with these
when they’re really trying to fight a
much more mobile Force than than they
were back in the days of the fold the
capap and and the potential Soviet
invasion of of Europe
I get some reactions from what you’ve
said um one of them is that um these
weapons we we talk about we worry about
roots on the ground we worry about
sending our soldiers into Harvest way um
as troopers on the ground oldfashioned
World War II style um but in fact um you
know it’s changing because the weapons
are long distance weapons and the
targets are different targets the
targets are largely civilian you want to
demoralize your enemy by hitting
civilian Target you know that’s what in
large part that’s what Vladimir Putin is
doing and the other the other point that
comes to my mind anyway is you talk
about nuclear weapons and Putin has
threatened to use you know arms and for
that matter tactical nuclear weapons but
that kind of uh you know that’s not the
kind of deterrence that really works
anymore because everybody recognizes
what you have to say namely that it
would ruin the world for years for
centuries or ruin civilization if you
got into a real Donny Brook about that
um what what it means is that no do not
have moral justification for using
nuclear weapons like ever um
but every Everything short of a nuclear
weapon is okay even Perhaps Perhaps a
tactical nuclear weapon but in any event
these very sophisticated Hightech and
very lethal rockets and missiles and
what have you uh that that are set off
on civilian targets that’s under the The
Cloud of the nuclear
possibility that seems to be okay you
know I mean so so the deterrence feature
has changed and if you can figure out a
very dangerous Lethal Weapon it’s okay
because it’s not it’s not nuclear
necessarily the other thing is uh you
know least this has surprised Us in both
the leers of War um I don’t know if we
can still say that Ukraine is um it’s
got a lot of sophisticated weapons but
it still has some um and it will
probably have more and it stands for the
proposition that even a a country that
doesn’t have all that much technology
can build weapons and and I mean I I I I
distinguish Ukraine say from the hotis
because the hotis are getting their
weapons and the from elsewhere from Iran
for example maybe North Korea um but the
Ukraine is really not getting them
outside Ukraine is actually building
some itself uh which you have to give
them credit but that is an element it’s
a feature so things have changed you
know civilian targets and longdistance
weapons A Thousand Miles for Iran that’s
different and and the war has changed
because you know you you don’t have a
boundary
where some guys are on one side of the
trench and some guys are on the other in
fact you could shoot at them from a
thousand miles away with all kinds of
weapons so you know I suggest to you
that this means um that we can have wars
where they’re not even close anymore
they just take a pot shot over a
thousand miles and um do it by remote
it’s different now and and this is all
new is well it’s it’s new but it’s not
new I mean you say we don’t have trench
work anymore but fact is is that in
Ukraine we we have that also you know if
you if you look at what’s happening on
the ground in the dbas today it it is it
is trench working you know so so you
have that but you also have all these
other compounding kinds of of weapons up
there also so it it you know where do
you where do you put your energy where
do you put your emphasis when you have
that sort of that sort of threat
environment that you have everything
from hence hand combat to to the the
Hypersonic missile that you know arrives
3,800 miles an hour you know so so you
know so I mean you it really becomes
complicated and it becomes a matter of
allocation resources of where do you
want to put your money where do you want
what is most important to and and what’s
most important today may not be that
important five years from now and that’s
the that’s the challenge because these
systems don’t get developed overnight
they get developed over over spans of
decades you know so so you’re talking
about you know the fifth generation
fighter aircraft or the sixth generation
fighter aircraft those things are are
they take 20 30 years to develop you
know so so it really becomes complicated
and you know then again as I was talking
about these old Legacy systems you know
once you’ve got one you really kind of
hate to let it go you know you might
need it for something you know that you
don’t foresee so you know so you’ve got
you know I mean the classic example is
B52 bomber built in the 50s you know and
we’re still thinking about how we’re
going to put new engines on it and make
it a make it a platform into 2050 you
know so a 100y old airplane that’s still
flying around trying to trying to
fulfill some military
purp well you know the cost feature is
always in there and something it takes
decades to perfect is very costly costly
to design and test and manufacture and
so forth but some of these weapons
including weapons that have been shown
to be very effective are cheap um you
know for example you know you can have a
missile um that costs a million dollars
a pot and the Taurus missile we talking
before about Germany is in a
collaboration with Sweden and they
developed this Forest missile which is a
missile that a plane will have to carry
and drop as an air to ground missile it
cost 1.1 to 1.6 million per copy um and
and and and a small um in a small
country like a David colas match uh
doesn’t have the funds um to afford a
whole lot of those nor doesn’t have the
funds to afford you know the the
airplane platform for that on the other
hand these Glide bombs that Iran has
developed and the rockets that are being
used and the drawings are cheap they’re
not anywhere near Millions they’re you
know they’re Maybe tens of thousands and
they’re very effective and very
frightening uh and they will be better
as time goes on you know there I think
so the idea is cost is important and
cleverness is important and deployment
is important and you can you can
actually have a David Goliath kind of
you know situation uh where the little
guy has clever high-tech um built- at
home weapons and that are a match uh or
at least a deterrent for some of the
heavyduty expensive weapons from a you
know a big war
power yeah well sure and and to go
further you you don’t even need to have
military weapons anymore you know you
have so much dual use equipment out
there that you can use in Warfare in
hybrid Warfare you have information
systems you know it’s about connectivity
and it’s about being able to to to fix
figure out what the other guy is doing
faster than he can you know and and it
all becomes uh driven by by the by the
Precision by the speed and and by the
connectivity of of those weapons and so
yeah so it it it just makes it more and
more complicated so you can’t you can’t
just build an Arsenal and say I’m done
you have to continue to figure out how
your component is going to use defensive
weapons to counter your offensively and
and you know the and defense has found
ways to do zone defense and and
penetration uh actions are are defeated
by by building but as you say the Iron
Dome in Israel is a perfect example of
how these these weapons are effective
but they’re not effective if you can if
you could build a system that actually
protects you like like the iron dull and
you know and that’s where the the the
small country Israel can actually build
that system you can’t build that system
in United States I mean we’ve tried you
know with with the intercontinental
ballistic missile defense systems but
it’s really complicated when you’ve got
thousands and thousands of miles of of
of border that you cannot
protect Yeah you mentioned connectivity
and I think it’s important to just take
a moment on that a lot of these weapons
long distance weapons um are more
effective if they rely on the internet
uh on satellite connectivity and uh
early on in the in the uh Ukraine war
Elon Musk turned off his uh his his
satellite system for Ukraine which was
an outrage because he made a decision
that he really would rather support
Russia than Ukraine and he turned it off
and Ukraine was left high and dry
without the benefit of the uh satellite
navigation um and so that becomes
another feature and a controlling
feature in some cases and I I don’t know
if there’s a replacement for that or an
alternative for that because if you’re
talking long distance you and uh you
know neral guidance or some kind of
Internet guidance you you really do have
to have a connectivity so that that is a
factor going forward don’t you think oh
sure absolutely and and and that’s why
you know one of the latest areas of of
uh development is space you know is is
coloring coloring satellites in space
you know remember what is it’s about
what maybe almost 20 years ago now that
that Russia tested its anti-satellite
you know and it it knocked out a
satellite and spewed debris all over uh
lower space you know and everybody was
outrage but don’t think that that
development has stopped you know you you
have to know that everybody is busy
thinking about how do you how do you
eliminate all those satellites that are
flying low earth orbit uh observing
what’s happening on the battlefield and
and guiding weapons and all these
autonomous uh vehicles that are being
being developed so yeah it’s
connectivity is important and and the
ability to destroy the other the the
opponents connectivity is is a critical
component of of defensive Wars yeah and
you know the United States spends
something over 900 billion dollars per
anom on on defense I think a substantial
amount of that goes to research and
development of weapons as it should um
and some of those weapons have been
rolled out and some have not a couple I
have noticed that just to mention to you
uh and it started in Israel Israel was
had the publicity at first over a laser
beams a laser weapon um which could
actually be a defensive weapon against
missiles um but it could be an offensive
weapon too and it required a certain
amount of energy but it was actually
much cheaper to to send a laser beam out
and to send a a big missile out um and
and this is like a a year ago maybe a
little less um and you know it was
impressive that they had gotten to the
point where it was very nearly a weapon
well a month ago I I saw something to
the same effect um on the part of the
United States that we were also doing
laser beams uh and that it was
potentially a weapon but it wasn’t
really ready for prime time um I think
it’s probably gone far enough now that
it’s had this publicity that it will be
ready for prime time and when it gets
ready for Prime Time a it’s going to
change the calculus on cost and B you
know it we don’t know how powerful it
could be we don’t know exactly the
circumstances in which it would be
deployed um so that you know that’s
really Hightech the other thing I
noticed that was Hightech and I’ll stop
in a minute here is these assault
weapons you know back in the day with
the M14 it was pretty primitive compared
to what they have now they have all
these scopes on them electronic Scopes
and the last thing I saw was they have
bullets that are smart and the bullets
you know you aim the bullet at something
and if the bullet goes off course it
corrects itself uh that is really
something so your target is had the cake
had the cookie um if you aim properly to
begin with uh that’s quite remarkable so
in street fighting I don’t know if the
Israelis have this I don’t think so but
the US is working on it and would be you
know helpful with the troops on the
ground is um so in terms of you know the
advanced weapons and they are probably
more you know remember we have we have
heard about um Sinister attacks on
American diplomats and Military uh
officials using
microwave and disconcerting them and
disorienting them and making them ill
and all that um you got it’s been
covered by 60 Minutes a couple three
times already um and the defense
department is um you know not denying it
so I think it’s out
there and um we don’t have it yet
doesn’t seem like but somebody else does
and query whether that’s going to be
another kind of weapon to discon dis
disc
disconcert your adversary I’m sure it’s
in the pipeline somewhere don’t you
think well there’s something there’s
something you’re talking about the Havis
right yes yes yeah yeah I I in fact I
saw a news article just the other day
that said that there was
a something happened when Kamala Harris
made her visit to East Asia recently
that there was some people who were with
her that were suffering from The Havana
syndrome so whatever whatever it is uh
it it hasn’t been clear and and they’ve
done several in the government itself
has done several investigations Beyond
60 Minutes you know the government self
has has tried to figure out what it is
because and the reason it’s called
syndrome is because it was first noticed
in Cuba and so you know that sort of
suggests who may be developing this
thing I suppose uh you know but there’s
something something out there whether
it’s microwave they they really haven’t
figured out what it is or at least if
they have they haven’t told the rest of
and so you know there’s always that
possibility too is that there there is
probably good understanding of what it
is but it is something that they really
don’t want to have
everybody understand so these kinds of
things happen all the time I the general
comment that I’ll make about microwaves
and directed energy and all that stuff
you know all this new
technology one of the things people do
when there’s a new emerging technology
is they
say how can what military application
does this technology have and and some
of it works out well some of it does you
know when you look at lasers I remember
in the 1990s when we were looking at
putting lasers on a 747 aircraft to
shoot down missiles you know that that
program eventually withered away it
didn’t it just they couldn’t make it
work you know the missile defense system
you know that we’ve been working on for
for years and years that they every once
in a while you’ll see that they’re
launching missiles out of or or you
missiles out of fudul or out of out of
kaai and and fraudulent for that matter
you know that that they’re still working
on this stuff and and it’s you know
years and years that they they try to
develop it and at some point they they
say this just isn’t going to work so
it’s always difficult to tell what
technology is going to emerge as the new
successful weapon I think I think today
you know the the big ones are are any
kind of autonomous you know the sort of
dystopian view of the future where where
robots are attacking each other and
turning on its Masters and all that sort
of stuff that we’ve seen in the movies
for well I think they get it from the
movies don’t they that’s that’s probably
where the concept comes
from yeah and and then the other one of
course is is the Hypersonic you know the
I think there’s you know there’s a fear
that Hypersonic weapons are going to you
know make so much defense so many defens
systems irrelevant that there is a very
big concern about about the the capacity
of hypersonics to to change the nature
of warfare you know but these things
they end up it it ends up always being
slower than what you think you know the
the whole the whole idea of autonomy
like me say it’s been around since the
50s you know and and it’s it’s maybe
closer today than it was in 1950 when we
had the the stoic movies of of the
robots roaming the Earth and and that
you know but but it’s still it takes a
long time for this this technology to
develop and in the meantime people are
developing defense systems to defeat it
so you know so now you’ve got you’ve got
all these drones that are moving from
Iran into Israel and long behold they
all get shot on in the
air yeah well I me know defense is part
of of War also and just as we talk about
weapons we we should you know consider
the advances in defense and they are in
do and other there more it’s more than
the iron doll as we saw last weekend
they have the Israelis have other
systems too that are defensive against
missiles but you know there’s one thing
that strikes me from what’s Happening
Here and that is you know essential
creativity cleverness you know I
mentioned the gliders it’s pretty clever
uh you think about it you know nobody
ever thought of that before and the
helicopter in the Red Sea with the with
the hotis coming down uh with a
helicopter and taking over a huge big
ship um hey that’s that’s quite
impressive and all it was was an
ordinary helicopter and a bunch of guys
with automatic rifles um that was
impressive and then you have you have U
you know other smart clever things that
that have happened that um you know that
that are of great concern and and what I
think what I what I Come Away with is
that it’s not only the weapons it’s the
use of the weapons it’s the clever
deployment of the weapons uh that that
is a concern and there’s plenty of room
for that you know there’s always room
for for cleverness I would say and we
are seeing
that yeah I mean you got you’ve got you
know you’ve got the hardware you’ve got
the software and then you’ve got the
user interface with those two systems
and and there’s a lot of room for for
creativity when it comes to how do you
want to how do you want to kill people
you know unfortunately that that that is
very much a a industry that seems to
thrive uh over the century and it it
never seems to run out of new
ideas yeah let’s look at the tunnels the
tunnels in you know Hamas land um you
know hundreds of kilometers and tunnels
and I don’t think the Israelis took that
seriously enough they knew it was there
they didn’t know the extent of it they
didn’t know what could be done and the
things that could happen the training uh
that you know that that’s just clever
because it cost a lot of money and then
and let me say that this is kind of a
weapon because you talk about asymmetric
Wars and all that propaganda uh is a
weapon of course we know um and um you
know social media the way propaganda is
a weapon and trying to trying to use
proxies that’s a weapon of course and
try to you know um ruin your ad AR’s
public relations by lying about what
your adversary is doing you know that’s
a weapon um and so you know I mean I
think there’s there’s all kinds of new
stuff that’s coming around and one of
them uh and I’ll treat it as a sort of a
system rather than a weapon is taking
hostages in large
numbers that is going to happen again
brl yeah well I mean but hostage taking
certainly isn’t new I mean it’s it’s
been around for for a long time and you
know and and so yeah I mean prisoners of
war in some sense are are hostens you
know and so it it it is it’s something
that that has gotten a lot of attention
in the in the media but yeah I I mean
what what you’re describing you know
this hybrid Warfare idea is the Chinese
call it informationized Warfare you know
and and and and it is you you have the
full spectrum and you know and that’s
what’s making it more and more difficult
I think to control the technology you
know back in the back in the Cold War it
was simple we denied we tried to deny so
the Soviet Union technology because
technology was the basis for developing
weapons now so much of the technology is
dual use multi-use Omni use whatever you
want to call it you know that that you
can’t simply control all the information
system you know so now you’re worried
about about you know kill switches and
back doors into into systems and all
this and once you start doing that in in
the era of connectivity of information
based Warfare it becomes almost
impossible to control that technology so
we still have control you know trade
control regimes out there but they’ve
become somewhat irrelevant because you
can’t control all the technology and you
can’t control what technology is going
to be useful going back to your idea of
people being creative and how to use
things that probably weren’t intended to
kill people in killing people you know
so I think that that yeah that’s part of
the part of
the vagueness that’s that’s intruding on
war planet is is how do you stop all
this all this all these systems from
being used against you in in in a
Warfare situation yeah and and and don’t
forget the um you know the intelligence
and Espionage aspect of this I keep
thinking of that those balloons over the
United States they Carl I’m here to tell
you they weren’t
weather they were not weather balles and
and they’ll be more of them and there’ll
be more countries using and they’re
clearly they’re trying to you know get
data on us just as China is trying to
get data in so many other ways and that
data is useful on a strategic
basis um you can say oh they’re just
they’re collecting everything about you
would need where we were born we went to
school who knows what but when you take
that data in you know in sort of a large
language model uh for millions of people
that becomes a a tremendous asset if
you’re going to go to war likewise if
you’re able to uh you know get get into
a utility plant
plant somewhere in the country and bring
it down on a given day that’s a a
tremendous weapon uh using the similar
systems so I think the internet is a
it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s of interest on
a number of levels but it has to be
considered in both the making offensive
and defensive moves and both sides all
sides have to be working on
that but I I’ll I’ll I’ll agree with you
on your second Point your first point
I’m going to say that you’re you’re a
victim of of of a paranoia that I think
is
overrun in other words I think you know
I think the the the fear of the large
language model stealing my personal data
is is somewhat somewhat overwrought in
in American we will uh I do think though
certainly certainly I I agree with you
that there is a huge threat to
infrastructure with information War I I
I I I fully agree with you that that I
think that’s a that’s a threat that has
really been overlooked and when you
think about you know what would what
would happen today if Honolulu suddenly
didn’t have electricity you
know or or didn’t have a water system or
or the water system got polluted or
something or it didn’t have
telecommunication yeah or or didn’t have
didn’t have the internet yeah yeah I
mean it’s it’s hard to it’s hard to
imagine that 30 30 years ago yeah 30
years ago we really didn’t think much
about the
internet no but we were totally
dependent on it now and and so you know
to me and this is what I would like to
get to here at the end of our time um
but you know things have changed and yes
there are still trenches yes there is
still bullets and soldiers shooting at
their AB Aries from short distances um
yes there is still artillery is still
relevant um bombs are still relevant
however the nature of War has changed
and if you look at what’s going on in
these two Wars these two active kinetic
Wars actually I shouldn’t say kinetic
because they’re asymmetric is what they
are they’re hybrid Wars in every way and
if we make a list of all the aggressive
Maneuvers and weapons and you know
procedures and techniques that we seen
used and developed we say to ourselves
you know it’s really different now um
you know World War II would be different
World War I would be very different
Korean War would be different um because
of these different weapons it would be
at distance uh it might involve germ
warfare uh it might involve um you know
this kind of bring down the utility
Warfare um so and and it might might be
smaller Wars smaller Wars more focused
Wars wars focused on civilians Wars
focused on morale wors focused on
forcing people to give up or give up
land um the world is never going to be
without Wars I’m sorry part of the human
condition look at look at history
everywhere you know people say oh I want
peace well the fact is that human beings
get into Wars they have since the day of
the stal the Stone Age uh that’s going
to that’s not going to stop but the
nature of the wars is changing rapidly
because of these new weapons and
techniques don’t you agree sure I do I
mean I I I think that uh that they
they’ve changed and they haven’t changed
that’s you know that’s the that’s the
big conundra is is going back to where
we started this conversation you know
there’s still nuclear weapons up and
they still have the couple countries in
this world still have the ability to
Simply eliminate civilization and and
that that be that should be frightening
but then you look at the other end of
that Spectrum where you have minor local
Wars you know local war is a big war if
you’re local it doesn’t matter it
doesn’t matter how many other people are
die the fact is is that you are and so
you know you know so so you you how do
you how do you
really plan for this kind of situation
where you where you have to be prepared
for localized War
hybrid informationalized kind of war and
all the way up to a to a a global
cration that uh that simply destroys
the yeah and it could happen I mean on
our watch right here right now I mean
for example you have Iran try to run all
these proxy terrorist groups um that’s a
new kind of War we haven’t seen that
we’ve seen proxies all agree but um we
haven’t seen proxies to the extent that
we’re seeing them now where you have one
country a a state a nation state
presumably with some responsibility for
taking care of its citizens and then you
have terror groups uh that are
completely free and independent and
murderous uh and have one controlling
the other this is like the
breakdown of of Na of Nations uh that’s
different and war is being done through
practices those things are different and
and you you spoke of nuclear and yes and
nuclear is always with us now now but
here is a rogue nation which is
essentially a terrorist State okay and I
mean I’d like to talk to some Iranians
about that but they’re not available to
me right now um and and and they will
soon have a bomb and they hate Israel
and they want to destroy Israel and
whatever you know all the whole country
from the river it to the sea with the
bomb you have a whole different kettle
of fish when it’s a rogue terrrace State
it’s not that everybody who has the bomb
is responsible or understands the
meaning of deterrence some countries
like Iran do not this is another level
of risk isn’t
it well sure I mean but any any state
that has nuclear weapons can be can be
portrayed as a risk to the rest of
civilization simply because there are
nuclear weapons that that can be
launched and I I understand that that
there’s a sense that Iran is a riskier
state I would say that uh North Korea
probably falls into that category uh
when you look at at Pakistan uh you know
how how stable is that government I mean
the real concern is is the stability of
the government and the and the
commitment to the nonpol eration treaty
that you know that that says we won’t do
that uh you know it really we’re basing
this on a on a treaty that people
somewhat adhere to others say you don’t
adhere to it because you’re not actually
dismantling your weapons you know so so
yeah I I understand that it’s not it’s
not pleasant to talk about the nuclear
aspect and certainly you know as as Iran
develops its its nuclear capabilities we
have to be concerned about it but is
Israel a responsible nuclear weapon
state well we’ve we’ve thought we
thought so but U right now we question
Netanyahu I suppose yeah on the other
hand he he is responsible to his War
cabinet I don’t I don’t think he can go
off half dark but let me let me ask you
one last question here it seems to me
that what we’ve been talking about with
all these weapons and wars and you know
that the kind of attitude that countries
have uh both aggressive countries and
defensive countries what they have right
now public statements they make the
threats they
make um you know it seems to me and
you’re in much better position that to
speak on this that I am we are in an
arms race we are in a global arms race
um that has come about perhaps access
accelerated by these two Wars uh but in
any event we are uh people are
developing arms they’re learning more
about arms they’re manufacturing arms we
take Germany for example it’s it’s
revived it’s ammunition manufacturing
it’s weapons manufacturing and I think
there are a number of other countries
France is another example of that um so
you know when you start taking off all
the countries that are building
designing using exporting selling what
have you um to so many places in the
world it doesn’t make the world a
quieter place it makes the world in
general a more dangerous place and it is
an arms race
is I I you I mean there’s a specific
definition for arms race and so I I’m
not sure I want to say there is an arms
race there’s always been an arms race in
the sense that everyone has has
consistently tried to develop a better
weapon a faster weapon a more efficient
weapon a a a clever weapon a clever use
of a weapon you know all the things we
just talked about I think that that that
is that is the case so if that’s what we
want to call an arms race then yeah I
think there is an arms race uh you know
but it also it also goes back to to your
sort of
U well I’ll say your statement that well
there’s always been Wars so we have to
prepare for war you know oh no I only
said there’s always been War I didn’t
say we have to prepare for
well but but if you if there’s always
been War then then I think it logically
follows that you need to prepare for
them too okay okay so you know I mean so
so I mean that that is the mindset that
that is a deeply ingrained mindset and
it’s deeply ingrained in the idea of
National Security you know so if you
want to look at at how do we how do we
escape this system you know ultimately
you have to start looking at what is the
source of this conflict and of course
the source is the socioeconomic entity
called the state because everything is
done everything that’s done in preparing
for war is done in the name of National
Security and National Security is by
definition security of my
state and yeah you know and so you know
so so yeah there’s ways to think about
how to go beyond that but certainly as
long as we’re satisfied that the state
is the most
efficient social entity to prevent chaos
that we’re going to be stuck with this
notion of National Security centered on
state survivability State
sustain yeah I’m really interesting um
you know point that uh this the state at
least has some responsibility to its
citizens um but chaos there’s no
responsibility take a you know the
panoply of the Second Amendment that’s
chaos and it’s not the same as the state
controlling things but that’s another
another show another time I want to I
want to ask you one more thing this came
up I I I meant to mention it and that is
a couple of weeks ago there was a very
chilling segment on 60 Minutes about
mines in Ukraine the Russians have been
dropping mines uh planting mines against
tanks and dropping mines from airplanes
um by the millions okay it’s going to
take a long time to get rid of all those
mines but one of the kinds of Mines that
they Dro and and this was this is fellow
who’s heading his garden in front of his
house it’s a perfectly Eastern European
kind of thing and he’s got all his
flowers growing okay one day the the
Russian plane flies over and drops these
little little grein mines they’re 5 in
long they’re painted green you can’t see
them in foliage you can’t see them um
and if you step on them you lose your
leg um okay and by the medat all over
now some of them will fail some of them
will get old and rust but a lot of them
will be there forever and and what
happened is the guy went out into his
garden um going to do his roses that day
and he he saw the mines come down and he
pulled out 12 of them from his front
garden but he didn’t see the 13
and lost his leg now these mines are
going to be in eastern Ukraine for a
long long time it’ll you know to to to
take out one significant mind takes a
Ukrainian like a full day of of working
ever so carefully to remove it um this
is going to affect the future of that
country mines have a life and after L um
it’s a special kind of weapon it’s
completely irresponsible if you if you
scatter them among civilian populations
that way your
thoughts yeah mine well I mean that’s
why there there was uh success what back
in the 90s uh I guess with the with the
anti-mine movement that they actually
managed to ban anti-personnel mines
unfortunately uh it wasn’t all
completely successful because they’re
still out there you know and and they’re
they’re in Korea too you know if you
ever if you ever have a ification on the
Korean Peninsula there’s going to be
people poking around in the DMZ for a
long time trying to find all those
anti-personnel mines on you know so so
yeah I mean it’s it’s it’s it’s sad and
it’s horrible that people are still
using that kind of a weapon but the fact
is is they’re still out there and uh
again you know it’s a it’s a fact of
it’s a fact of life that that those
those weapons are still sitting there
they’re still going to kill people and
uh it take decades to get rid of it as
you
say well thanks for this discussion Carl
pry
sure I’m not I’m not sure that it helps
me feel better about
anything but but that’s the reality and
and we like to talk about the reality
really appreciate it coming down and
discussing these these very unhappy
unhappy developments in the in the the
human race yeah it really it really is a
not a not a pleasant topic you know and
and the reality is is that they’re there
and and we have got gotten a long way to
go before we stop talking about it when
we have countries around the world in as
you say increasing their defense budget
for the in the name of of National
Security yeah and then we have a
terrible horrible disastrous war and
people make a agreements that it would
never happen again uh no more poison gas
no more uh you know uh biological
warfare and all that stuff no more
nuclear proliferation and next time you
look we forgot all that and we’re back
to square
one well thank you Carl Carl Baker
senior advisor at the Pacific for white
always enjoy these discussions and I
learned so much thank you than you and
[Music]
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[Music]

How will They Change Wars in the Future. The host for this show is Jay Fidell. The guest is Carl Baker.

Carl Baker, senior advisor to Pacific Forum, helps us understand the new weapons and battlefield techniques that have been used or developed in the Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas war, and now the war between Israel and Iran, including missiles, drones, glide bombs, gliders, land mines, laser beams, smart assault weapons, helicopter boardings, among other things, and how they are likely to change wars in the future.

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