Bitcoin [BTC]: FINAL MOVE Before Multi-Year Bear Market in Crypto.

Bitcoin [BTC]: FINAL MOVE Before Multi-Year Bear Market in Crypto.

[Music]
there’s a chance the Bitcoin will not
trade under $60,000 again but with the
lack of volume and interest on this
recent rally the jury is still out
short-term Trends do look very very good
and we are still fishing for this Fifth
and final leg in the bull market so in
this video we will be covering the
short-term the macro some traditional
Finance but before we get into all of
that please remember that I’m not a
financial adviser so always do your own
diligence in research and past results
are not indicative of future performance
all right before we get to bitcoin on
the short term and the macro looking at
the big picture this recent rally if we
are going to be seeing new all-time high
prices soon or not I do want to touch on
some important data that I do track for
you guys just so we can get a bit of a
view of what’s going on in the
traditional space and then also how
things are looking in the bigger picture
as well so this chart here which is not
popping up for me this here is just
looking at the major announcements in
the traditional space and how we can
typically see a large amount of
volatility on these dates and times now
the kicker is this week we don’t have a
whole lot which shakes crypto up too
much typically these announcements here
will do a little bit more for the
traditional Finance space but it’s still
worth paying attention to these dates
and times because we can see increase
volatility around these periods this is
forexfactory.com calendar and you can
set it to whatever time zone you are in
now for a quick look at liquidations
they’re still relatively low we are
seeing a decline in 24-hour volume down
around 10% but more importantly what we
want to be looking at is this daily
exchange volume this average the 7-Day
moving average and we are hitting fresh
lows again now the reason this is
important for me is because I like to
see new lows on Exchange volume which
also coincides with lows in the market
as well so we are looking for a macro
high low or at least I am and I do want
to see exchange volume drop off to give
us the signal that it’s more likely
coming about sooner rather than later
and we are seeing a massive drop off in
exchange volume so that’s really really
good to see now finally we want to have
a quick look at the spot ETF lows you
can see the interest is really dwindling
out significantly no surprises there not
a lot of interest from retail so again
this is something we will keep up to
date with so we can really track what’s
going on in the traditional space when
there’s fear and greed and how that does
coincide with the ETF flows so all right
now before we get into cryptocurrency
we’ll take a quick look at the US dollar
the US dollar is doing its thing hitting
some resistance as anticipated around
that 106 level but interestingly we are
starting to see some of our Trends flip
our one day one bar and our one day two
bar Trends have turned down and right on
our resistance area which is nice to see
now the big picture view is that we are
in a distribution pattern right now a
macro distribution and the US dollar
will be breaking down from here putting
in a major move lower and if we do see
that take place that will also line up
with a rise in other asset prices stock
markets and of course cryptocurrency as
well but when the macro lower top comes
in if in fact that’s what’s going to be
taking place that’s really what I’m
looking out for here now we did have a
lead on the market that our Trends were
turning up in the US dollar and we’re
looking out for some pressure in stock
markets in crypto and that’s exactly
what we’ve seen over the last few weeks
so now it is a matter of just following
those Trends to see if we do get more
resistance and those Trends flip to let
us know that maybe we have seen a top
and we’re going to be heading down from
this point forward but of course we
don’t want to be getting too far ahead
of ourselves we’ve only seen a
short-term change in Trend so we’ll see
if this can now translate onto our
weekly time frames and if in fact we do
see some macro high lows form in stock
markets and also cryptocurrency all
right that’s it for the US dollar we’ll
jump over now to the 1H hour chart which
is this one here now what we have on the
chart are our yellow lines being our
pivot Points areas where we’re EXP
buying and selling pressure to pick up
when we hit one of the lines from the
underside I’m anticipating selling
pressure to increase and when they hit
from the overside I’m anticipating
buying pressure to increase so just to
give you a bit of a view on that you can
see we hit this yellow line from the
overside buying pressure did increase
then we came up to hit it from the
underside and selling pressure did start
to increase now doesn’t mean we’re going
to be seeing the exact prices met and
then we must see reversals it’s about
looking for a bit of a guide in the
market and just some higher probability
areas to be expecting buying and selling
pressure to take up or to take place
rather and you can see it has been
holding the market down at least so far
so selling pressure has been coming in
at around
$67,000 now the other important line on
this chart for our lower term time
frames is our trend line coming from
this high low up to that next high low
off that fear selling from the whole War
scare which was going on at the time and
you can see how we are still holding on
top of this very very important trend
line for our lower term time frames now
the reason this is important for me is
because I treat the markets as
relatively strong when they’re trading
in the top half of their tools and weak
in the bottom half of their tools so
technically speaking we are strong on
our 1hour time frame above this trend
line but if we do happen to see a
breakdown take place which could well
have happened by the time you’re
watching this video it would technically
flip weak which then gives us a lead
that maybe the higher term time frames
are also going to change direction now I
have added an orange dotted line on your
screen coming in at around $65,500 if we
do break this level here on our lower
term time frames then I am anticipating
we’re going to be seeing a larger
correction take place so do keep that
level on your chart it will both be weak
on our trend line and also weak on our
short-term 50% level and also back
beneath this resistance area or what was
resistance which should act as support
you can see old highs become new lows
old tops becoming new bottoms you can
see that taking place over the last few
retests but if we see a change of
behavior and we drop back beneath that
zone then that’s an early lead that
we’re going to be heading down for maybe
a couple of days or longer so keep that
655 on your chart as for our 4-Hour
analysis here you can see that right
this is our weekly chart for our 4-Hour
chart which is this one here fix them up
for you you can see that we are holding
the line 50% that comes from the all
High down to that flash crash low all
the way from the 5th of March we’re not
really strong or weak we’re just
basically at our balancing point right
on that halfway zone so again just like
I was talking about with my pivot Points
when we hit lines from the underside I
expect selling pressure to pick up but
when we get back on top and we hit it
from the overside I expect buying
pressure to pick up and as of right now
we’re just basically sitting dead on
this line without any Confluence you can
also see our trend line on our 4-Hour
time frame is keeping the market down or
at least we’re hugging that trend line
as well we’re trying to work into a
stronger position on multiple indicators
is here but we just yet to get that
confirmation because the price action
and volatility is just extremely low
right now so for an early lead that we
are going to be heading lower on our
highter time frames as well we had that
on our 1 hour chart but we’ll of course
see that on our 4-Hour time frame as
well if we do get back beneath our trend
line at 50% on these higher turn time
frames we have a little bit of a double
top in play but again we don’t have any
confirmation yet we’re just hitting that
resistance at
$67,000 but you can see that our Trends
are up in our 1 day one bar rather our
4H hour one bar and our 4our two bar so
let’s see if we can get some translation
on our daily chart but we will need to
see a correction take place first before
we can start to turn up on the daily
time frame if that’s what we’re going to
be seeing now support levels on the
underside of the market if we do correct
from here a very healthy correction
would be down to around
$64,000 and if we do see buying pressure
pick up around that point then there’s a
potential for an intermediate low to
take place if we drop back beneath
$64,000 then look out on the weekly time
frame because we’re likely going to be
coming back to that low $60,000 range
overhead resistance areas we clearly
have that $68 and $69,000 just for round
numbers so do mark them up on your chart
for your overhead levels for daily time
frame you can see another 50% level in
play it’s very very similar to that
flash crash that I showed you on the 4H
hour chart that was coming to this level
here our 50% level is coming down to the
end of the current correction so far of
course you can adjust it back to that
level it’s very very close but for all
accounts and purposes we’re really at a
balancing point in the market now not
too much more to add on our daily time
frame here because it’s just very
similar in terms of price action over
the last couple of days hitting that
same resistance area at $66,500 or just
67k for round numbers up to our high
term time frames you can see that we’ve
come back down to retest 60 Grand
basically dead on we had this Pivot
Point on our chart ahead of time and
like I keep saying we expect buying
pressure to come into the market when we
hit these levels from the overside and
you can see it’s happened yet again so
we always have to respect support So
support will always remain support until
it breaks down and we see a change of
behavior and we haven’t seen any change
of behavior yet beneath 60k but if we do
happen to break this Zone then we can be
looking out to that mid to low $50,000
range is that next support Zone but of
course while we’re trading above there
there’s no point getting too caught up
in what those lower term targets are
rather what those lower price targets
are because of course we are still
trending up on our 4-Hour time frame and
we still haven’t broken our two we 1 by
two we or our one month one bar chart so
of course our Trends do remain up and
these have remained up throughout this
entire correction so far so of course
that 60k is just an extremely important
point to be watching on the bigger
picture I’ve been tracking the Elliot
wave cycle for you guys where we’re
looking at the macro Market structure
nothing has changed here at all I am
fishing for a major high low in the
market to take place which will give us
the end of a wave four which then means
we’re likely moving into to the fifth
and final leg of the bull market where
things really really go crazy now
something else I’ve shared with you guys
is that in commodity Cycles we typically
see that last leg go completely over the
top bigger than anything else previously
in the cycle if we are treating Bitcoin
as you know a digital commodity digital
gold or whatever you want to call it
then that would tip the odds in favor of
a huge Fifth and final move which will
also send altcoins over the top as well
now we don’t have any confirmation that
happened yet that’s just a bit of
speculation but like I’ve been talking
about for quite a while now looking for
the end of a way 3 which I believe we’ve
got based on Drake posting at the peak
of the market a lot of retail coming
into the space which isn’t just my
opinion it also took place on our
exchange volume as I can show you very
objectively on this chart here you can
see this little bar down here in March
2024 a huge pickup in volume which is
driven by retail it was very clearly
driven by retail for a number of reasons
and just a very simple one to be looking
at was the comments on YouTube were just
absolutely insane there was so much just
you could tell new people were entering
the space just purely based on the
comments of videos and essentially
they’ve obviously felt a little bit of
pain with markets falling 10 20 up to
60% depending which altcoins you were
looking at which is what is leading me
to believe that was the end of a wave
three and we’re now in a correction or
wave four I think things are going to
get really really spicy once we do break
this previous top if in fact that’s what
the market is going to do because any
retail who has held on throughout this
entire correction is going to feel like
a genius and then they’re really going
to be going in hard towards the end of
the cycle and unfortunately most new
people who come in at the end of a wave
three will end up losing all of gains
and more when the market does turn down
for good and put in a larger bare Market
but again this is all purely speculation
I don’t want to get too far ahead of
myself the main thing I am tracking for
still is the confirmation of an end of a
wave 4 which will then set the market up
to put in new highs and start this Fifth
and final move so with the US dollar
turning down on some lower term time
frames some good short-term Trends still
holding up for now I’m still not
convinced because we’ve had really
really low volume out of this recent
move up so of course time will tell if
this next move lower is nothing more
than a short-term correction or if in
fact we are going to be testing some
lower prices before the market really
sets up a new base that’s all I’ve got
for you in today’s market update if you
want more from us in Tia crypto hit that
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else we have going on over there that’s
it from me wishing you more health
wealth and happiness and until next time
I’ll catch you then
[Music]

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⏰ Timestamps
00:00 Looking Good?
00:50 Data Review
02:18 US Dollar
03:25 Bitcoin 1-Hour
05:26 BTC 4-Hour
07:00 Bitcoin Daily
08:17 Macro Analysis

#cryptonews #bitcoin #crypto

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