Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy: Panel 1, Captive Nations and Captive Regions

Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy: Panel 1, Captive Nations and Captive Regions

okay well my colleagues are taking their
places I want to extend really my
sincere thanks to O mki for putting such
great panels at first I was um I was
taken AP by having so many people on one
panel but then I looked at the bios of
all of the speakers that are speaking
today and I was literally dra away they
incredible people with Incredible
biographies I’m going to introduce them
now uh and and by the way at each panel
but I’m going to introduce my panel
today we are going to start with Paul
gobble who is a senior fellow at the
Jamestown
foundation and he is also a longtime
specialist on ethnic and religious
questions in Eurasia uh Paul has
distinguished Korea working for the
government uh advising the state
department during the breakup of the
Soviet Union and now providing his
insights about what is happening in
Russia and what could happen in Russia
in the future Paul thank you for being
with us
today we have
both now I’ve unmuted okay can you hear
me okay it’s a great pleasure to be here
and it’s a great it’s an even greater
pleasure that such a meeting is taking
place those of us who are old enough to
remember in the years before the end of
the Soviet Union know that there were
not very many similar meetings then uh
because there was much less riness to
admit that the Soviet Union was about to
come apart than there is now that the
Russian Federation is headed to the
Dustbin of history and I think that
represents real progress the problem is
that there’s a lot more progress that
has to be made and I think this is a
very good place for us to start
I’ve I’ve given my paper to Margarita
and so I’m going to be very brief uh
anyone who wants my Fuller thoughts on
this can get a copy from
her we’re going to publish it Paul on
our website right most most people in
the west
today unfortunately still assume that
the coming disintegration of the Russian
Federation will be quick and easy that
it will be something like what happened
in
1991 and that uh we will the the West
will be supportive the Russians will be
supportive and the divisions within the
Russian Russian Nation itself will not
be important none of those things are
true uh and I think we just have to come
to terms with it I’d like to focus on
some part of that I’m absolutely
convinced that what is coming will not
be as quick nor as easy nor as bloodless
as what we saw 30 years ago in fact it’s
much more like it’s likely to be far
more complicated last far longer and
require far more discipline and focus
not only by Western governments but also
by those who were in the immigration and
the need for them to have close contacts
with the peoples of the peoples of their
homelands I fear increasingly that what
we headed into is a period when the
demise of the Russian Federation will
resemble very much too much that of the
Ottoman Empire in the 19th and early
20th centuries for for 100 years the
Ottoman Empire was known as the weak man
of Europe and it had a national
revolution in the form of The Young
Turks but it also remained powerful
enough throughout that entire period not
only to repress its own subjects but to
threaten the world world and I fear we
have to be ready for that too now I
would love to see us take a much more
forward policy but my own experience in
1991 and subsequently suggest to me
that’s not uh not very
likely understanding why the events
looming on the horizon are going to be
so different and worse than those of
1991 is critical not only for the
peoples involved and the strategies they
adopt but also and perhaps as especially
for outside governments who are once
again going to face a greater challenge
than they did three decades ago when all
too many of them wanted to Proclaim
Victory the end of history and assume
that they would get a peace dividend
from all this the fact is that after a
rupture occurs whenever that is the
tasks ahead are going to be larger
rather than less had we recognized that
after 1991 we would not be having Putin
and would not be in the Kremlin and the
war in his war in Ukraine would not be
going out it wasn’t and so we are
suffering as a result as are the people
of the region what I’d like to do very
quickly is to point out some of the
reasons why the coming the coming years
are so much are very much likely to be
different from
1991 first of all in 1991 almost
everyone who did think the Soviet Union
was coming apart agreed on the number of
countries that would emerge and the
number of and the borders they would
have there is absolutely no such
agreement now with range of options and
the number of countries that we hope to
see ranging from one in the case of
Vladimir Putin to over a hundred in the
estimates of some people that very fact
means this is going to be very very
complicated and very very
explosive second in my view at least
ethnicity is not going to be the primary
factor far more important is going to be
regionalism within the Russian Nation
the biggest problem we have in talking
about the future of this part of the
world is that people don’t address the
fact that R the Russian nation is a
itself a myth the tragedy in this part
of the world is that the the Russians
became an imperial State Nation before
they became a state before they became a
nation as a result the the Russians who
live in vladist stock as opposed to the
Russians who live in kingburg are as
different as the Americans and the
Australians and we had better start
figuring that out but instead we tend to
ignore the regions within the Russian
within the Russian nation and it’s going
to be those that will determine outcomes
because if it’s if they do not matter
and that is the working Assumption of an
awful lot of people then we will have a
situation where the overwhelming Russian
majority led by a ranous government will
engage in actions like Ukraine again and
again what is necessary to make the
disintegration of the Russian Federation
work is for the Russians themselves to
come apart and form separate Nations and
separate
countries they talking about ethnic
Russians may not be popular in a group
of non-russians but unless we figure out
what happen happens with the ethnic
Russians we’re not going to get our
we’re not going to achieve our goals and
we’re certainly not going to have
Independence or at least not for long
that’s one of the mistakes that was made
in
1991 and the years afterwards we
shouldn’t make it
again moreover we need to remember that
what’s coming is not going to be even
nominally within the terms of the legal
framework of the Russian Federation
there is no right to secede in the
Russian Federation Constitution there
was one in the con in the Soviet one
that allowed the West to move as far
toward supporting them the this process
as it did and we didn’t move very far
one should not forget that the United
States was 37th to recognize the
recovery of independence by the by the
three Baltic countries and the so the
United States Department State kept the
flag of the Soviet Union up 6 days after
Boris yelson took it down over the
Kremlin and over the Soviet Embassy in
Washington DC the idea that the West is
going to come and support and create a
tabalo razza that other people can then
write on is simply not going to happen
and in 1991 we had a Russian leader in
the person of Boris yelson who was
prepared to give up the per periphery in
order to get get rid of the Soviet
leadership of
gorbachov mostly on the assumption that
yelson believed and so did the people
around him that the periphery would come
back because it had nowhere to go
there’s not anyone now who thinks that
Putin has that view or would would adopt
that kind of strategy and that Ally that
the non-russians had in the person of
Boris yelson simply isn’t available in
Moscow today and that that’s that that’s
going to make this process far difficult
my own View and it’s one I’ve written
about many times over the last 20 years
is that what’s coming is going to be
that Russia is indeed a failed or
failing state but what is coming is
going to be far more like what happened
in
1918 when this when the state dissolved
and then was reassembled by a newly
mobilized uh Central regime that got
that was able to achieve what it
did because the West provided just
enough
support for Moscow for the Kremlin to
Target the regions on the periphery as
being handmaidens of outside Powers but
not enough to allow them to win there is
an enormous danger that’s what Putin is
trying to do there is an enormous danger
that that will be repeated again and
again especially if those seeking
Independence in the future Place their
hopes in the west above all it’s going
to be have to be in your hands and in
the hands of your peoples and it’s going
to require that they adopt a much more
long-term strategic approach than most
of them have up to
now I think the danger that we will see
a process of growth of contraction and
then reexpansion and then contraction
again in the Russian case in the coming
decades just as we saw the uh efforts of
the Ottomans to do the same in the
absence of outside
force and it was a war it took a War
World War I to to destroy the Ottoman
Empire completely and even then it
didn’t go all the way because I would
remind you that the largest Nation on
Earth that doesn’t have its own state
are the
Kurds and they’re not a state because of
turkey’s
position this is going to mean that the
that we are what we will see will be
much more much more
problematic now those who want to help
the non-russians and the ethnic Russian
regions to achieve independence freedom
and democracy have got to remember I’ve
got to do three to five things first the
West needs to to recognize that it made
a terrible mistake in
1991 when it ju proclaimed just about
everyone a Democrat and assumed that
privatization of the economy would solve
everything I’ve often said that the
greatest tragedy for the former Soviet
space was the Triumph of the University
of Chicago economics Department in
Western thinking the idea that economics
would determine everything economics has
done nothing to keep Putin from invading
Ukraine and that’s something which
unfortunately Western governments and
Western analysts still don’t
understand
second for all the problems that the
disintegration of the Russian Federation
will involve and those problems will be
highlighted by all kinds of people in
all kinds of Western governments that
will argue we must do nothing because it
would get worse need to recognize that
the only way forward to a peaceful world
where democ and freedom are possible for
large numbers of people will be to
dismantle the Russian Federation the
Russian State and that means
transforming the Russian the ethnic
Russian myth into a variety of peoples
into a multitude of Nations themselves
if we’re not willing to do the things
that will make that possible then the
future for many people is not going to
be very good
third the west and this goes to others
as well but must recognize that there’s
going to be some kind of Russian State
at the end of all
this there are too many people who are
happy today to put up maps that don’t
show any Russian State
remaining there’s going to be one it’s
probably going to be centered on Moscow
and it’s going to be large enough and
well-armed enough to create real
problems for all or most of the others
that simply has to be understood that is
not an argument for not doing something
it is an argument for recognizing it and
thinking about what is necessary to
constrain that state so that it will be
less likely to invade its neighbors it
will be less likely to repress its own
people much of the discussion about
what’s happening now in in the Russian
Federation ignores that reality and
somehow Acts as if well if we can just
have somebody better than Putin or we
can have just have the non-russians who
are a third of the population go away
that will be enough I promise you it
won’t we should have learned that lesson
in the last 30 years regrettably we
have’t fourth and this is going to be
the hardest thing for people in the west
and especially the United States to
recognize the obligations and the
challenges and the burdens that we are
going to have to assume to make these
kinds of things happen are going to be
greater after this process starts than
they are
now that means we have to view them as a
long-term investment in a stabled
peaceful and Democratic world if we’re
not prepared to do that then I fear we
will probably cause more trouble uh and
help and help fewer people and finally
and this is something which I know a lot
of non-russians don’t want to
hear it’s absolutely essential that
cooperation be promoted between various
groups of Russians and the non-russians
both in the areas where they live and
more generally the two the two silences
between them are extremely dangerous if
there isn’t that kind of cooperation if
there isn’t a recognition that there are
multiple russas and there are many
non-russian uh Nations that should
become States then it isn’t going to be
a good future for either of them now as
many of you know I have long been and
remain absolutely committed to the
freedom and Independence of all the
peoples of what is now in the Russian
Federation I’ve said things that a lot
of people don’t
like 1994 when I was asking lvia whether
lvia should be a member of NATO my
response was no the real question is
whether Brion oist next to Moscow should
be a member of NATO I’m in favor of a
very much more forward policy than we’ve
ever
adopted but at the same time the basis
of having been in this business for now
five decades I am also convinced that
those of us who are
involved must recognize just how
difficult this is all going to be rather
than assuming that we are in a situation
where by saying the right thing
convincing a few people to respond
positively everything is going to fall
into our laps without difficulty if we
aren’t willing to admit that and make
the commitment required to make a
difference then there is a very great
danger that we and those who we uh uh
that we and the peoples we want to Hope
may be dragged down into the dpin of
History along with the Russian
Federation
which I am quite convinced is headed
there if not in this decade then
certainly in the coming months thank
you thank you very
much thank you uh we allocated a little
bit more time for Paul to uh to talk to
you today because of his vast experience
and his insights uh and kind of to set
the frame for this discussion today now
we’re going to have a few more a few
last minutes for all of our uh next
participants so let’s stick to six seven
minutes at the most so that we can
finish on time and allow the next panel
to start on time our next speaker is
asset Abdula she is a vice Minister
Foreign Affairs of the Chan Republic of
each career uh founder of the Union of
churan Youth in quebe in Quebec Canada
thank you and thank you for coming here
today from from Canada thank you uh good
morning ladies and gentlemen I would
like to thank the organizers of this
conference uh it’s a great honor for me
to be here in Washington and thank you
for inviting me here in 2002 when I was
11 years old my mother who is the the
people’s artist of the churching
Republic of itara was invited to Moscow
for an interview she took me with her
when we arrived the Russian journalist
met
us and she looked at me and said to my
mom don’t take the subway with your
daughter my mother was very surprised
she said why and the journalist replied
you are blond you look like Russian but
your daughter has the features of a
person of the Caucasian of Caucasian
nationality you might have problems with
local militia it
means and my mother was shocked years
later when I started to reflect upon the
incident uh and the reaction of this
journalist I understood that her
reaction was caused by phenomenon of
cusop phobia present among ethnic
Russians and spread by Putin’s policy of
demonizing the chin so I find it’s
important to understand the roots of the
chaan and Russian conflict historically
the relationship between Chans and
Russians has been characterized by the
by the Russian willingness to use the
overwhelming might to suppress the
Chan’s will for
self-determination in
fact uh uh during the Great Caucasian
War uh the Chans were were were
represented by the image of a wicked
chin who who wets his dger kin as it is
written by one of the greatest Russian
poet lont in his famous kak
LBI during Soviet times Stalin accused
the entire nation uh for alleged support
for Nazi Invaders and deported the
entire all the population to Kazakhstan
in Siberia and label the chin people as
Enemy of the State although it is a
historic fact that Nazis Germans never
reached chachia so 50% of the population
perished on route to
Kazakhstan uh in 1994 when yelon
launched a fullscale air and a land
attack on chat yelon labeled the chin
resistance Bandits the regime as
criminal and the head of Chan government
johar to as mad uh later Putin portrayed
Chans as uniquely a criminal criminal
nation and Islamic terrorists in fact a
upon coming to power he right away
struck a cord with the Russian public by
promising to waste all the terrorists in
the ouse so the chan people are victims
of Russian propaganda and are being used
as a scarecrow to scare everyone away
from the chin State and the truth is
that Russian imperialists including
Russian liberals until this very moment
support this narrative and deny the
existence of the Chan indep dependent
state it is a fact that the Chan
independent state is a legitimate State
as state as was USSR the Declaration of
State sovereignty adopted on 27 November
1990 was in full Conformity with the USS
legislation uh it is also a fact that in
May
19992 the government of joar DV signed
an agreement on the apportioning of
weapons and military equipment uh with
the minister of defense of the russan
Russian Federation pav grov if joar had
really come to power after an eared
Rebellion as it is claimed by all
Russian imperialists including liberals
there would have been absolutely no
question of transferring arms and
military equipment to the government he
headed after the defeat in the first
Russo Chan War Russia recognized the
sovereignty of the Chan Republic of
ichara the jury and de facto concluding
a peace treaty with Chia in May 1997
where both states were designated as
subjects of the international law
Russian imperialists refused to admit
that Russia committed war crimes in
chcha there is a lot of documented
evidence about the fact that Russia’s
tactics in Chia were not in keeping with
the Geneva Convention and its
commitments to the organization for
security and cooperation in Europe
vacuum bombs deliberate attacks on
civilian populations ethnic cleansing
torure sweeps everything has been used
in Chia which resulted in the death of
300,000 Chan civilians including my
father 42,000 children and the death of
democracy in Russia in fact Putin’s rule
has been synonymous with eradication of
political opponents anti-democratic
reforms uh suppression of Free Press and
demonization of church and people puting
turned Russia into into a unitary state
and established a autocracy with the
russion sh
imperialist ideology at the heart of his
rule which transformed into a form of
fascism one furer one Russia and for
Russians only and this chauvinist
imperialist ideology until this very
moment is deeply admired by all Russian
so-called
liberals by adopting the policy of
appeasement by tolerating Putin’s
narrative and accepting the block black
hole of lawlessness on Russian side side
in chachia the world the West has
unfortunately raised a monster which is
today threatening the entire world with
a nuclear button so what’s next how do
we deal with this crisis in Eastern
Europe the West must realize that that
to achieve a long-term substantial peace
in the region it can’t just sweep Chia
under the carpet as it has done for the
past 30 years yes the Soviet Union
collapsed but the evil empire did not
fall apart precisely because the West
convinced Ukraine to sign the 1994
memorandum and did not recognize the
independence declared by Chia and
tatarstan it’s time for the
west and in fact the West going to
commit the same mistake if it continue
to listen to Russian Li liberals who
want to save the great Russian Empire
it’s time for the West to change its
policy towards the occupied Church in
Republic ofar and Caucasus it’s time to
follow the example of Ukraine and
recognize the sovereignty of Chan
Republic of itara as Ukraine has done it
on 18th October 2022 the Chan government
in Exile is closely working with
Ukrainian authorities and is willing to
cooperate with the United States of
America and the European union we need
diplomatic and political support and
financial support our capacities are
very limited because we lack funds uh we
can’t mobilize all our forces because we
don’t have financial means for that I
can assure you that the moment will
receive support from the West it won’t
find any better Ally than the Chan
Republic of itar even tolto said that
Chans are true friends and worst
enemies uh uh and we stand with United
States of America we stand with Ukraine
we we we value Freedom as much as
Americans do because we have been
fighting for it desperately since 18th
century and I find it’s amazing that
today I can sit here in Washington and
represent my country without being
afraid that I I will be killed or
kidnapped as it happens in Russia when
anyone dares to speak about the
independent CH and Republic of Iaria the
United States of America values freedom
and democracy and that is why we’re
looking forward to us cooperation and
finally let’s not forget that the defeat
of Ukraine will be a disaster for the
entire civilized World it will be indeed
the end of history but not in fuk way it
will be the end of History where Goliath
defeated David the first president of
chch Republic of H Jo warned the entire
world about the disastrous consequences
that the Russian Empire would bring if
not stopped in Chia today we can see
that Russian Federation is igniting the
Sparks of Terror all around the globe
and that’s exactly what joar said 30
years ago the United States of America
abandoned Chia and the only wish I have
today now may this never never happen
again thank you so
much thank you very much I will move
quickly to our next speaker shamilov who
has a a PowerPoint presentation he is a
vice Minister Foreign Affairs of the
church and Republic I’m sorry he is a
vice chair of the committee for North
cuses Nations and he’s also honorary Cil
of the ch Republic of each carea in
France um so he is going to be
presenting on on the his
organization thank you the Powerpoint
already the PowerPoint
please thank you for the
presentation I proud that there is an
important delegation uh of our committee
here uh I said uh myself I you are
chashan in USA and our chairman uh
Captain Adel bashka who is also chashan
and the vice chairman of our committee
and many guests here representing the
chashan diaspora in USA and the churchan
diaspora uh your presence here is a
testament that we didn’t surrender and
that we will continue our struggle for
the independence
I will limit my speech explaining seven
points of our
strategy so the first point is the
necessity to support Ukraine the
government of the Chan Republic of
ichara leaded by Ahmed Zak and our
committee started from the first day of
the Russian aggression to support
Ukraine in all the Spheres defense
politically in the media by every means
that we have so we are
appealing here to the Congress of USA to
continue to support the Ukraine because
it’s vitally NE necessary to continue to
help the Ukrainian resist the Russian
aggression it is needed for Ukraine for
the north Caucasus and for all the
Civilized world the second point is the
defense of the north
Caucasus it consist in the creation of
the north Caucasian Army in
Ukraine while Russia is becoming more
uncont uncontrollable genocides and Wars
against the population of the north
Caucasus are possible
again persecutions and murdering of
hundreds of
activists are going on in North Caucasus
now in Ukraine the prime minister of the
Chan Republic of ichara Ahmed zakay
managed to form the army of the Chan
Republic of ichara and we must do all we
can to obtain necessary support to
advance that process this Army has
double function helping ukrainians to
resist Russian aggression and prepare to
the liberation of the nor asan
territories every day the Chan Army
becomes a real modern Army legal
internationally recognized trained
respecting all the conventions
respecting the convention of
genev coordinating its actions with the
Ukrainian Army and all our political
partners and when the time comes that
Army those combatants will be ready to
protect the population of the north
Caucasus from Russian aggression and
will assure stability and peace in the
region the F the third point is the
necessity of creation of an
international media platform for
information for all the north Caucasus
Nations news discussions analyes culture
broadcasts about the different languages
of the north Caucasus and other content
is necessary the Russian opposition has
many effective media platforms while we
have very little media
they don’t accept our struggle for
Freedom they just want us to stay in the
Russia of the in the in the Russia of
their
dreams they don’t accept our struggle
for Independence but we we don’t want
the false Russian Federation and its FSB
methods nether the so-call new beautiful
Russia of their dreams so we have two
propaganda sources working against us
the Russian propaganda and the
propaganda of the Russian
opposition so we are very concerned by
this point and we need support to have a
media efficient media to work in that
direction this is we are more than able
to establish independent states and form
in the future a confederation of North
Caucasian Nations like the European
Union
that is the mission of Our Generation
now and of the generation of our
children and the media is the most
important tool to help achieve
it the fourth
point is establishing political
alliances we are working on establishing
political alliances between Western
countries and the government of the Chan
Republic of ichara in Exile and our
North Caucasus Nations committee this
work started in Ukraine and we need
other countries to join this that
process it is in the interest of our
people and in the interest of Ukraine as
well as Europe and USA that the north
Caucasus becames free and able to form a
civilized region of prosperity and
development built on the principles of
democracy it will open many
possibilities for the world economy
Investments resources transport
facilities trade military
alliances the fifth point of our
strategy we demand we we ask and we
demand the recognition of the
genocides and the condemnation of the
continuing systematic crimes committed
by Russia against Chans engush chians
and and the other people of the north
Caucasus and that was committed all
those crimes were committed throughout
the history of Russia throughout the
three periods of Russian history the
chist period the Soviet period and the
so-called Russian Federation period the
Ukraine has already recognized and
condemned the genocide of Chans and
English the resolution of recognition
and condemning the genocide of chians is
in
preparation and we want the other
countries to join this
process in 2018 the government of the
churchan Republic of isaria
sent a document listing all the crime of
aggression the war crimes and the crimes
of Against Humanity through the
international Court of uh the heg
Criminal Court of the hag but
the absence of political will and the
fear of
Russia caused a total ignoring of this
document by the international court and
that must
change the sixth
point we are working on the preparation
of economical scenarios of development
of our region and it’s it’s important
for us to have experts and experienced
politicians to join Us in that
work finally the seven point we would
like to alert everyone Russia threaten
the world with nuclear arms then with
the energies gas and oil then blocking
the export of Ukrainian cials and now
they are using again extremism and
terrorism to threaten the world trying
to stop the support for
Ukraine we are working every day on the
social networks and with our
aspas alerting our people not to follow
the manipulations of Russian proxies
using religion Islam has its place in
our society and it is a religion of
peace and
progress and we are successfully
providing our people with the peaceful
true and civilized knowledge of our
religion the three the free North
Caucasus will not represent any threat
to the
world to the contrary it will be a
region of stability and modernization
and the model of multiethnic and
multifaith States respecting different
religions different Traditions
respecting the human rights and doing
all in favor of development and
prosperity we are sure that in all these
points we have common interest and we
ask you to work with us and so the
independence freedom and the development
of the north Caucasus will be achieved
many thanks to the organizers of this
conference to the J Jamestown foundation
and the Forum of post Russia uh of the
fre people of post
Russia uh for the possibility to address
directly here in USA in Washington DC
all our partners and friends and to
present our struggle for the
independence to the American society
thank you very
much thank you very much um I will turn
now to b b mang B man who is Chairman of
the Congress of O cik people and also
member of the free Nations lead thank
you good
morning I am glad to Welcome to the
participants of our
conference we are at the entrance to a
new
geopolitical uh ER the reasons uh for
this include not only corporate
strategies new scientific
discoveries and Technologies artificial
intelligence and climate change but uh
also the unreasonable Ambitions of the
leader and uh uh the people supporting
him in a country that has become a banal
victim of mass anger Self
Indulgence uh
resentment uh and the desire of Revenge
my name is B bang I am the chairman of
the uh representative body of my
nation’s Nation uh the Congress of oat
kalmuk people and uh I’m a member of uh
free Nations uh
league for the last uh 35 uh years I
have been professionally in judged in
politics as well as in public investment
human rights party activities uh
business teaching historical
education
Etc uh as it turned out uh in the
conditions of Russia
practically everything I was in judging
except politics was politics pure
underground or uh official and uh today
I will talk about what I have been in
judged uh in politics for this 35
years dreams that the oric people could
become uh the owners of their own
independent States state was born in the
early uh
1990s but after Putin’s arrival people’s
uh consciousness uh became infected with
thoughts uh of a great Russia not
kikia gradually people began uh to
realize that is it is impossible to
preserve their culture Traditions
language uh their ethnicity or simply to
develop uh in this uh criminal Russian
state it is a very self uh uh
deception uh and
Utopia uh either uh our people and other
peoples will sooner or later uh be eaten
up by purpos purposeful uh assimilation
or they will be killed by obedient
service to the Moscow Homeland this is
uh exactly what is uh happening in the
case uh of Russia’s war against Ukraine
tens of thousands of people from among
non-russian peoples are sent in the
interests of Putin and uh the Russian
Empire to commit war crimes and death
the alternative and uh the only
guarantee of liquidation of a treat not
only to the peoples living with in
Russian state but also to all man
mankind is a termination of existence of
Russia and Creations creation of
independent states on this post Russian
territory I must say my people have had
uh several independent states in the
past now I just want to list what an
independent or at K kikia would be and
what uh benefits uh it would bring to
United States Europe Ukraine and the
whole world or at kukia has a favorable
favorable uh position in many
respects uh and is uh part of several
historical natural geopolitical cultural
economic
uh areas and mcro regions at the same
time territory of the Republic Kia
is part of the Black Sea caspan mcro uh
region and the northern Caspian Sea it
has a long coastline of the cpic sea
Caspian Sea with the a shallow shelf
located within the Caspian oil and yes
Province
estimated uh
hydrocarbon uh reserves are about uh 20
billion tons of fuel
equivalent it occupies occupies and
Transit position on the north south
Russia trans
caucasia uh Iran and East West uh
Central Asia Ukraine trade routs and may
become part of the bridge between Europe
and Central
Asia it’s located on the path of the
shortest uh air routs between Europe and
East uh and Southeast Asia this is a
territory through which a significant
part uh of the caspan oil pipeline
Consortium passes which annually pumps
about 70 million tons of oil from
Kazakhstan and Southern Russia to
terminals in the Black
Sea it could be used as a route for new
oil pipelines from the caspan sea to
Ukraine and further to
Europe can be used for fiber uh optic
routs and uh the information traffic
from Europe to
may be of interest for the
Diplomatic economic and Military
presence of the United States European
Union Union uh nato in the Caspian Basin
area this is a small part of what uh I
would like to say I’m ready to talk
about uh it in more details as I have a
lot more to discuss on the topic welcome
to uh our independent to at Kia to all
our friends thank
you thank you but it’s so important to
stress the economic opportunities and
potential of those regions and how they
can sustain themselves um if uh when
they become independent um I would like
to invite now vaselina orlova with her
online presentation online talk uh
vaselina is Anthropologist she is at the
University of Texas here in the United
States she studies Siberia post Soviet
ruins immobility and potency and
toxicity of Soviet um uh of Soviet
effect thank you vaselina for being with
us today
is she here she’s there
right can you hear us
vaselina I don’t think um I don’t think
we have her all right um then we have
Yuri HOV who is uh at Fletcher school
he’s a visiting SCH scho at the Fletcher
school at TS University right now
otherwise he’s a political analyst and
media manager he’s also going to speak
to us
online y yeah uh yeah uh good afternoon
good morning in Washington DC thank you
for inviting
me uh to speak at your conference I’m
sorry for not being in DC uh these days
so
uh I don’t claim to represent any
particular region or Nation here right
right now but I want to share with you
my recent research on the crisis of Russ
Russian nation building Russian Nation
hood that I did during my uh stay at the
Fletcher School recently and hopefully
uh it’s going to be published uh in full
soon uh when we hear uh Putin’s
assertion that Russian bordies do not
end are we compelled to ask is it merely
rethoric or reflection of a deeper truth
in light of Russia’s aggression against
Ukraine questions about the essence of
Russia’s identity surface us to
scrutinize its social and political
landscape more
closely this examination challenges the
conventional notion of Russia as a
unified political entity and here I
totally agree with uh Mr go uh therefore
it becomes imperative for us to reassess
conventional perspectives on Russian
identity and explore alternative
Pathways Pathways
forward through this exploration we aim
not only to grab the tapestry of
Russia’s reality but also to pave the
way towards a sustainable
peace let’s embark on the brief
exploration of nationhood and the
process of nation building considering
whether Russia’s experience aligns with
established theoretical paradigms
Benedict Anderson’s seminal work
imagined communities provides a valuable
framework for understanding Nations as
imagined political communities
understand uh insights underscore the
pivotal role of collective imagination
in fostering a sense of belonging among
divers populations challenging the
notion of Nations as fixed entities and
highlighting their construed nature
however the conventional dichotomy
between Civic and ethnic nationalism put
forward by the scholars like Michael
gnaf fell short of encapsulating the
complexities of national identities
gites advocacy for example for good
Civic nationalism over bad ethnic
nationalism oversimplifies the ingate
processes of identity formation
particularly within culturally diverse
contexts like Russia here the there in
Russia govern the
government has often utilized such
distinctions to qu descent with the
within uh break breakway regions like
chna and to just justify aggressive
actions against neighboring
states uh instead Scholars like will
kimer or Gregory yanis advocate for for
a more holistic approach that integrates
cultural dimensions and political
representation into the fabric of nation
building
Endeavors the historical trajectory of
nation building in Russia reveals a
complex interplay of Imperial
aspirations and autocratic rule as noted
by uh British historian jofrey hosking
uh the omnipresence of monarchy
inhibited the emergence of cohesive
nation state perpetuating a political
landscape marked by autocracy and
stagnation uh attempts by uh the emperor
for example Nicholas I first to cope the
concept of nationality as a metaphysical
bond between the ruler and the people
further impeded the development of
Representative governance essential for
more and for modern
nationhood furthermore Russia’s
expansive territorial conquests and
militaristic culture have profoundly
influenced its historical development
research by Russian historian Alexander
Atkin sheds light on how the Russian
Empire’s expansion contributed to the
colonization of various ethnic groups
and the assimilation of ethnic Russians
in in their in its core shaping Russia’s
relationships with its subject the term
Russian itself has undergone significant
Evolution reflecting shifts in rist
vision and political
context as we navigate through these
historical and theoretical insights it
becomes in my view evident that Russia’s
identity is far from as far from
monolithic uh it’s complex tapestry of
cultures histories and political
Dynamics necessitate a nuanced
understanding and reevaluation of
traditional
paradigms by embracing this complexity
we can chart a course toward a more
inclusive and peaceful future not just
only for post Russia but for the broader
International
Community and as we deep and as we um
delve deeper into the complexities of
russan identity and nation building we
confront contemporary challenges of
imperialist of imperialist Legacy and
the rise of putinism the confusion of
nationalist favor and Imperial Nostalgia
underscores the task of navigating
Divergent ideologies in today’s Russia
while putinism stronghold rests on
Notions of national greatness and post
Soviet resentment it faces opposition
from uh the ethnic minorities and
Alternative forms of Russian nationalism
that challenge the states honic
narrative
uh uh the uh the task of of of
redefining Russian identity M historical
uh this baggage and present day hurdles
represent a formidable yet imperative
task unlike the trajectories of many
European nations Russia’s journey toward
a unified national identity
has been marked by
deviations under Putin’s regime a
paradigm of uh paradig this Paradigm
rooted in statist
imperialism uh has supplanted the notion
of modern political Nation limiting
Russian identity to adherence to the
state agenda rather than individual
self-identification roots or cultural
affiliations it begs the Urgent question
can Russian nation building pivot toward
alternative nonauthoritarian found
there thereby fundamentally reshaping
the
continent Alexander Atkins recent book
uh Russia against modernity casts light
on Russia’s struggle against progress
highlighting its Reliance on fossil
fuels and ex exacerbation of social
inequality Atkin uh Atkin foresees
potential scenarios for decolonization
or as he said calls it def
deeder uh suggesting that Russia May
face fragmentation but potentially
giving rights to
self-sufficient and uh probably
successful
entities however the realization of such
scenarios are hinges on the cultivation
of a coherent narrative and New National
identities without this these potential
Transformations May remain elusive or
worth exacerbate existing grievances to
avert further resentment after the
breakup of the Russian Federation it is
imperative to empower communities
seeking the Empire less future and the
establishment of their respective
National Homes including those for
ethnic Russians one Avenue for defining
the identity of ethnic Russians lies in
for example IL zaro’s vision of a
Russian nation state viia or Zia such a
state would Encompass some regions in
the Russian ATN ATN cultural core in
European Russia this approach aims to
provide ethnic Russians or whatever uh
they choose to call themselves with a
home finded by clear boundaries and
historical cultural foundations
countering the
expansionist rethoric prevalent in
mosco’s discourse while following a Euro
authentic path the unique experiences of
regions like my own uh Northern Homeland
pomor may serve as examplars for the
redefinition of nationhood on new
grounds by prioritizing local and
regional identities and nurturing a
sense of rooted cosmopolitanism
democracy Society groups can
counterbalance the K homogenizing
narrative fostering a modern national
identity rooted in the rich diversity of
their respective cultures the
empowerment of Grassroots resistance the
preservation and celebration of local
Heritage and advocacy for decolonization
to present in my view promising avenues
for reimagining post Russian identity
Beyond authoritarian and Imperial
legacies though this path may be bumpy I
know this but there was charting a new
course abound this and it falls upon us
to take the first
step thank you you once
again thank you very much Yuri and now
we have our last speaker for this panel
Nas Zina who is an anti-war activist a
researcher of Central Asia uh in
information Warfare in post Soviet
states she was also NGO representative
at the United Nations economic and
social Council in the past she she lives
in New York thank you very much n for
being with us today thank you Margarita
and good morning dear colleagues uh I
was born and raised in Western Siberia
in tomsk and uh today I want to raise
awareness about several things related
to Western Cura uh this include of
course the Region’s natural resources uh
scientific and cultural heritage and the
impact of propaganda on the younger
generation in Siberia through different
tools first of all through universities
and specific youth forums in addition I
want to draw attention to students from
post Soviet States if you follow uh
specific news about higher education in
Russia um Russia issued theas
significant number of higher education
quarters uh this year for foreign
students not only uh from post Soviet
territories but from other countries as
well but however we all have to
understand that actual motive behind the
the kremlin’s offer is not to promote
scientific cooperation between states
and um regions but to re-educate or
educate young Specialists with current
Russian political standards they aim to
make young students uh first of all
ideologically but also financially and
socially dependent on premin narratives
and Kremlin controlled institutions and
Thoms has become a popular destination
uh for intern National students who are
often recruited for PR Kremlin projects
under the appearance of Education
initiatives this is part of a larger
strategy by the government Security
Services to create a network of groups
that are loyal or can be loyal in the
near future to the Kremlin University
Administration are often involved in
such collaborations which aim to engage
young Professionals for political
objectives in Russia so dictatorships
often manipulate Young people at forums
and conferences to secure their future
power the kremin uses students and
researchers as tools for current and
future propaganda
efforts also tomsk possesses uh a
cultural and sent um thank you and
scientific Heritage of global value
including its wooden historical
architecture a unfortunately we cannot
restore many wooden buildings in tomsk
because um our architecture is not an
economic uh priority for for the Kremlin
and for the local authorities as well in
the near future we can lose this
Heritage so the history of scientific
centers in Siberia is shadowed by pain
due to political repressions from the
past and the practice of exiling Highly
Educated individuals to Siberian
previous centuries just some
um historical facts so how we know
thousands of people were imprisoned
murdered and tortured in Lamor camps in
Siberia especially until
1953 in the past Soviet authorities
masked places where where thousands of
people were
murdered as an example kalpas skar this
is a big grave with people who were shot
and hidden by their own authorities
however the truth was hidden only until
1979 when part of the bank of the op
River collapsed exposing the brutal
reality of the past four people but even
after this discovery the authorities
tried to hide this event again a large
number of individuals living in siira
don’t know about such essential stories
about our region because such stories
are never included in our school
programs the significant State Control
in Russia has led to the Banning of
nonprofit organizations such as n
memorial for example which advocates for
the rights of
victims of Russ repression
the kremin has been uh has been using
the manipulation of people’s memories as
one of its most effective tools it’s a
fact that most people are not aware of
the dark side of the Soviet history and
about uh the current situation in Russia
in other words we don’t know who we are
the gradual influence of thisinformation
on the younger generation can lead to
specific
consequences first uh first of all this
is aggression toward some Nations mainly
European and North American countries it
can also lead um to an inclination
towards conspiracy theorist and a
tendency to constantly perceive the
United States in a negative light after
being educated in Russian institutions
Russia’s leadership seem seems
exclusively focused on its own interest
while exploiting other regions to
satisfy its own desires people in
Siberia fail to recognize the
significance of local Heritage and the
richness of Siberian land as a result we
are missing out on huge opportunities
for success in tourism many Americans
ask me when we can go to Siberia when we
can travel to Siberia to see the real
Siberian winter to fill the real
Siberian VI Vibe but my answer is always
I don’t know because I’m afraid to go
home and I think you’re afraid to go to
Russia too because of
politics moscow’s leadership has
developed a long-term plan to exploit
the resources but also population of
Siberia Moscow heavily relies on natural
resources from Siberia such as wood coal
gas oil diamonds using this money the
Kremlin has brutally continuing
attacking Ukraine for more than two
years
already Western Siberia is a hostage of
kremlin’s desire to increase its wealth
and power when we free ourselves from
moscow’s control we can gain a deeper
understanding first of all of our
history unlock our full potential of the
region invest invest in the growth of
our region and have the freedom to be
ourselves so and I just want to conclude
my speech with a citation from Financial
Times which is what happens in Siberia
matters to the rest of the world very
short and very true thank you thank
you thank you
and we will continue with the topic
about Siberia we have six more minutes
left vaselina thank you for joining us
today thank you so much I appreciate
it uh the topic of our panel is captive
Nations and captive regions uh just
yesterday the news went viral of the
Dwellers of Oren Bor obas in Russia who
cooperated to block the water from
Raising and flooding their
FS earlier at them in orenburg broke the
people came together to create a dam
that prevented the Ural River from
inflicting further damage in addition to
the damage that the flood already caused
in orsk and
orenburg the people build a new dam by
themselves without the help from the
government doing things by themselves
without the help of structures that were
supposed to be there becomes the only
form of self-government in Russia that
can protect the people from the natural
disasters
the government abandoned the people as
whatever means and resources the
government has the government directs to
the Russian unlawful war of colonial
aggression and genocidal land grab in
Ukraine the notion of captive Nations
and captive regions represents the
orenburg OAS in Russia even if not
everybody there might agree the Russian
government has been touting the vertical
of power a notion invented by veslav
as a way to justify the Uber
centralization along with such Notions
as Sovereign democracy and
stability everyone can see now that
stability was not as stable as it
appeared if anything the stability of
extraction impoverishment and
depopulation is the stability that
Moscow regime is offering to the Nations
and regions that are currently Loosely
United by the name of the Russian
Federation and a broader notion of the
Russian World the vertical of power is
extremely rigid and the central
government habitually adopted an
extremely extractivist approach to the
regions during my anthropological Field
Works in eastern Siberia I often heard
that people
complained they related the feelings of
Abandonment the feeling of Abandonment
by the central power the feeling of
extractivist approach of moscow’s
government those were prominent these
feelings were betraying the expectations
of a paternalistic government which
comes as no surprise to anyone who
observed the video messages recorded by
Russians of the content Putin help us
one of such videos was even recorded in
oror goess during the recent flood as a
result of the broken Dam looking at such
expressions of expectations from the
government and a demonstrated loyalty to
the government one could ask if our
hopes for
self-directedness and local governments
are
futile however the voices of the local
intelligence Regional intelligence the
elites of the national republics which
we hear at the forums the forums of the
three nations of post Russia are not to
be
dismissed his voices must be heard and
appreciated and one of the reasons why
we hear them outside of Russia more
often than coming from Russia is because
such speakers are being labeled
extremists and terrorists in Russia they
are silenced and
imprisoned these people are doing
everything that depends on them to build
connections with the Allies in the west
and the East and in Africa they expand
our understanding of colonialism to
include Russia as one of the colonial
Powers this the tasks of the Russians or
at least the way I see it is not to
publish Memoirs titled patreon not as
the Widow of naali announced naval’s
Memoir is going to be
titled but in supporting Ukraine and the
national liberations
movements the work in Russian by an
ethnic Russian that could be worthy of
attention will be titled National
traitor Russia needs to be decentralized
and the Moscow regime needs to lose the
ability to GA vehicles and Manpower
throughout Eurasia for its Colonial
Pursuits inspired by the vengful desire
to reattribute Kev as the capital of the
Kian R and the credle of the Russian
civilization to the current Russian
Federation the Recollections of ruric
and other myths of the Russian State
hoods can happen in interviews but they
cannot be the ground of such wild
revisionism as Russia is currently
attempting I hope the world may come
together once again together with China
and the global South to denounce the
violent unilateral revision of sovereign
borders in support of Ukraine’s heroic
fight and in support of Liberation and
decentralization movements in Russia
thank you so much for your attention
thank
you thank you vaselina thank you
everyone on this wonderful panel
unfortunately we don’t have time for
questions but we are going to be here
all day and you are going to be able to
ask our panelists questions in the
meantime and also during other panels
please um direct your questions um to
these panelists as well don’t limit to
to one panel only thank you we are
switching now to the next panel another
eight participants here with uh their
take on their own aspirations for
Independence or or more freedom uh and
our moderator is going to be Tas

About the Event

The imperialist Russian polity under Vladimir Putin is a source of conflict worldwide, from Eastern Europe and the Caucasus to the Middle East and Western Balkans. The Russian “Federation” is a federation in name only and, at its heart, is a colonial empire. Moscow is a key partner of the People’s Republic of China, a vital enabler of Iran and its terrorist proxies, and a long-standing partner of North Korea. The Kremlin is encouraging a new “Axis of Disruption” (Moscow–Beijing–Tehran–Pyongyang) of authoritarian and totalitarian dictatorships with the shared vision to undermine the global order, discredit international law, weaken the effectiveness of institutions in independent states, and destroy Western unity in defending freedom and human rights.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has exacerbated the deep-rooted problems of the Russian state and society. As the war rages on, the potential for Russia’s political, economic, and social collapse continues to grow and cannot be discounted. The impact of Russia’s rupture would reverberate globally, as did the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia’s decolonization and de-imperialization could be gradual or rapid, similar to how other empires have collapsed in the past. With informed foresight, the process of disintegration can be managed to stabilize commodity markets, mitigate the human consequences of political or state collapse, limit the possibility of violence, and initiate denuclearization.

The conference “Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy,” jointly organized by The Jamestown Foundation and the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum (FNPF), examined the possibility of Russia’s rupture and gather educated perspectives on what scenarios might arise.