Bitcoin, is it time to sell? What the data says about May

Bitcoin, is it time to sell? What the data says about May

all right guys we’re back with another
data fi video on bitcoin looking at the
possibility of a sell in may go away
strategy going to review the data on
this particular strategy going
specifically into the monthly the six
monthly and the annually and how that
has played out over the years comparing
that with the bare Market years and the
bull market years in terms of the
Bitcoin cycle and no not the harving
cycle forget that trash
we’re looking at the 4E cycle left and
right so I got plenty to get through
with you today so make sure you do hit
that like And subscribe button hope you
had a fantastic weekend we are back
we’re going to do more out on location
this week but today I need to be in the
office to get through the uh the data
here and check out the charts of course
you’re doing a fantastic job thanks
again we are beating this YouTube
algorithm and YouTube audience who
reviews videos with warnings and
breakings and big titles so smash up the
likes let’s go 4,000 likes today all
right let’s kick it off guys the daily
chart here for
BTC basically 6 days down now we’re
underneath the old or the current
all-time high for the last 46 days we’re
coming into our 46th day uh when you see
this and I don’t expect that to change
soon obviously soon could be a week two
weeks I don’t think we’re going to shoot
to new alltime highs if it was to happen
I don’t think it’ be that sustainable so
this is where we’ve come from these tops
this this is my take on reviewing
history studying the past to forecast
the future I’ve got plenty of receipts
going back to April and March at the
Peaks and you can see a lot of the
comments around that time when we were
at that peak in March
were having a go at my analysis
suggesting that the market had to
continue up in light of the harving and
all that sort of stuff and obvious VI ly
that hasn’t been the case however we
still have not collapsed we’re basically
been churning sideways between 60 and
70k so on the short-term review here uh
before we get into that data essentially
that was the peak there in around
mid-march where almost every single
influencer was looking at 100 Grand
before Haring because of the onchain
analysis because ETFs were buying
because harving was coming up because
you name it it had to keep doing what it
was doing and then
this collapsed well you know the whole
narrative collapsed and then it came
over to this point so I’m moving this
Arrow here and that was the idea
bitcoin’s going to 100 Grand before the
harming you know as it started to rise
again they’re all calling that the low
was in big channels talking about low
was in and the market was going to go
racing up to new highs again because
that’s what it had done and it didn’t
occur that was the lower top the
complacency bounce if you’re familiar
with the Wall Street cheat sheet it fell
again tried to again and they came back
100 Grand before the Haring all this
sort of stuff that was early April but
that was the fake out so we got a fake
out we looked at that $725,000 level
specifically and Bitcoin faked out above
that and then came crashing down from
that point again taking out this next
low and so they basically cemented this
sideways trading range for Bitcoin
throughout the course of March and now
April and so April I mean we got 24
hours to go for the monthly close I
think we probably turn into a red month
I don’t think there’s too many people
that would say otherwise uh again just
looking at this this data here we’re in
a red month we’re down about
12% on the month and uh basically from
from that point we had the fake out
Market collapsed we had the harving
which was in the scheme of things a
non-event for the timing it was a lot of
hype leading into the event and
basically a month before it we got the
top so the 14th was the top and then the
20th so basically 5 weeks before the
harving is where the Peak Interest died
off then we had another 50% rejection
multiple times so that’s what we’re
looking at there and then there that was
a 50% roughly 67k 66 a2k and now we are
down from that rejection yet again just
like it rejected on the 15th of April so
now leads us to present day where we
currently sit on this
$63,000 level as as I talked about in
last week’s videos was going to be a
critical area for Bitcoin because you
saw a lot of action take place in mid
April leading into that harving and now
we find ourselves way back down to that
level again so let’s kick it off from
here before I get into my opinions on uh
my own analysis later in the video first
up what is this selling may go away
strategy it’s a trading strategy which
recommends investors close their
positions in May and walk away from the
market until October and then you have
to specifically buy back the 31st of
October which is your Halloween day for
the us and that is your Halloween effect
which suggests from previous data that
the market runs up into Christmas which
gives you that Christmas rally so you’ve
got Thanksgiving and then you’ve got
Christmas and the market will run up
from that this year it might continue to
do that the data suggest the wood we’ve
got the election coming up and then more
and more money going into the system and
basically
that could happen later in the year but
let’s just keep focusing on what we’ve
got so far where we’ve come from so that
we can try to forecast where we’re going
with this so these were the posts there
if you want to check them out they’re on
X link to that is in the video
description so you can check out all the
receipts the stuff that we’ve been
talking about from those Peaks the call
it nasty comments uh it got very hot and
heated at that Peak markets come down
from that point and things seem like
they have cooled off from there and
we’ve definitely now seen the cooling
off on the Google Trend words don’t come
at me with the old no one’s using Google
to search anymore AI
BS that’s going to take a while to
change and Google is also using AI so
Google Trend words are still very very
helpful if you don’t want to use them in
your own analysis go for God don’t use
them but this has been very very helpful
and look at that Peak Interest came the
week before the alltime high and then
the alltime high week was just under
that top so you had a a lowering of
Interest Google Trends of course people
aren’t searching Bitcoin as much and we
ran into that Peak at the top here so
this was Peak search term for Bitcoin
alltime High came the week after and now
basically the search term is absolutely
died off from here back down to 20 on
the reading here which is takes us back
to previous levels uh that we saw after
the ETF and then all through that grind
of 2023 of that 7mon accumulation range
it’s not all bad news this is not bad
news at all okay it’s fantastic for the
bull market because we are getting rid
of all the nonsense that came through at
the Peaks back in March back in early
March and also all the the nonsense that
came through just a hysteria not
necessarily nonsense of the fundamental
events of the ETFs but the hysteria you
need to get rid of that hysteria the
search term has died off it has gone
back to that same level of those periods
of the grind of 2023 and also some brief
periods through the ETF hype that’s just
a fact that’s not my opinion and you can
see the excitement has died off now the
I said it’s not all bad news because
again just looking specifically at the
price chart we well the Bitcoin price is
still at the levels that it was when it
had extreme hype that was at the peaks
of the search term but the price is
still in that trading range so there’s
still interest there’s still holders out
there of course
but at least that um the major euphoric
interest has died off and I think we
will get that back that’s my now now my
opinion just based on what we’re seeing
with the uh support and resistance
levels coming in on the chart this is
the fear and greed chart it has been
dropping off you can see we had extreme
greed in late March or sorry early March
leading into that Peak and then the
greed died out look at the greed it was
still extreme but it was lower highs on
the extreme greed but higher highs on
the price chart what am I talking about
that there there’s higher highs there’s
lower highs this continued to die off uh
I’ve talked about this before being one
of the least feared bull markets we have
not well the the fear of the market has
not dropped back into extreme fear since
essentially the low of last cycle so we
there’s just been no fear of this bull
market will it come probably but just
taking an objective look at the data the
fear and greed has not hit extreme fear
throughout this entire cycle uh except
for the low so basically the low point
there at the FTX collapse and then on
the channel That time a year and a half
ago whatever that bottom was I suggested
that that was the low because of the
rising um greed you know we leaving the
extreme fear and coming up into just
fear yet the price was going lower so
people were less fearful of the market
around these lows and as it started to
climb out you saw even less fear in the
market and more of a neutral stance as
you can see from the yellow and the
light green in the background here just
leading into that neutral stance as the
price continued to rise if we were to
see price come back down and still
remain at higher lows to all of this
movement then you might see a bit of a
shake out here on the market sentiment
that could drop it back into the the
fearful Zone which could reset the
market sentiment overall now looking at
the weekly here this is a 4 we red
period for Bitcoin this has signaled
rallies in the past and then another
move to the downside doesn’t have to be
severe so the downside for the whole
movement was 20% in that 7mon grinding
another 22% the banking crisis non
crisis was
21% all I’m getting from this is even if
we were to see a rally there might be
another leg down but it might not be
extreme that um many are hoping for some
sort of extreme move below 40K the only
time that we can see that occur in 2023
was the banking crisis so you had an
extreme fearful event lots of people
bought up that low and then it broke out
and took out those tops without any sort
of pullback again so if we were to get
some sort of extreme cataclysmic event
maybe that could be the signal that we
won’t see the market rally and then put
in a new low that could be the low
itself because you’ve got enough selling
pressure to uh clear out the market of
those Sellers and then start to climb
higher just like what happened in the
banking crisis Michael has covered it
pretty well on his channel as well you
can find that in the uh the video
description right here so that’s my
brother doing more analysis on bitcoin
so looking at the swings themselves the
yellow line here the gain swing
indicator link to this top of the video
description you get a 3 sday trial so
after these long swings we’ve seen two
swings down in the case of 2021 we’ve
seen that six weeks down in the swing in
the case of 2019 into 2020 but remember
that was at the earlier stages of the
market that was basically from the low 6
months up and then 6 months down whereas
we are a long way from that low now
we’ve had that 12-month period already
and we’re up at these high prices so if
we look back to the previous Cycles uh
after significant moves out there was
two red months down it was still within
a trading range in in 2016 into 2017 but
you only had that 2 months down before
the market was trying to recover new
fresh highs right in the first move out
you had three months up and then the
pause there roughly five months but in
terms of red well you had one reversed
came back down for the following month
and then green so we’re just looking at
what a churn sideways looks like the
cycle before leading into that peak of
November again several months up then
there was a pause one red month still
within the trading range there so it was
about four months in the trading range
went on the next move into April there’s
your April top and then again two red
months but nothing overly severe for the
time and then stayed within the trading
range and then worked its way out into
that final Peak so in the bull markets
barring this one here which led into
that Co collapse you can see anything
from about 1 to 2 months of red in a row
so this could be the final red and maybe
May you’d see some downside and then a
higher close so that’s also a
possibility but at the time it might
feel like May is just it’s all over and
it’s only going to close red what we’ve
seen in the past one to two months on an
average would be your red periods coming
up so we’ve looked at the swings green
months in a row red months in a row
within a bull market after a swing and
also the turns so we got a so far a
March top and like we’ve covered for
previous years you’ve got Junes March
junees March April June so it seems like
a pretty typical period for uh the
market to turn in and then if we add
that to the correction one to two months
maybe we see the low in April maybe we
see the low in uh in May well it would
be typically doing what it’s done in the
past one to two months down it would
churn sideways for another couple of
months and then start to work its way
higher obviously we don’t have that data
for the next four months just trying to
understand what’s happened in the past
and then continue to watch the signals
as they play out day to day week to week
to see if we do get those higher lows
forming now onto the monthly analysis
here just looking at what’s happened in
the past May using every single month of
ma it’s roughly 54% chance of a green
month if we take out the bearish years
so the bare years 22 184 2014 well then
it gives us a 60% chance of a green
month and if we just look at what’s
happened with April’s if April was red
May has been red and that was in 2015 in
2021 let’s see what happens in 2024 of
course um if April was green well that
doesn’t typically say that may has to
also be green you’ve got two occasions
there in 2023 and 2013 where April was
green and may was red so I think it’s
important just to have to watch what the
chart is doing next I’m not paying as
much attention to the month-to-month as
opposed to say the six-monthly chart
here and also the swings themselves so
so the data for sell in may go away and
then buy back on the 31st of October has
a 69% hit rate for the entire history of
Bitcoin now if you take out the bare
Market years of 2014 2018 and 20122 an
even better hit rate 90% so if you get
out of those years every sort of four
years where the market is basically
straight down that would save you a lot
of heartache and the biggest losses
themselves 24 31 and 45% because the one
in 2011 was only uh 8% now if we look
forward the 12 months of May so may to
April you got a 69% hit rate if you just
to buy on the first and hold it until
the 30th of April next year 7 out of 10
times you’re going to end up green so
it’s probably not the best strategy to
do that for the 12 months especially if
it’s a non bare Market year which I
don’t think we’re in one this year but
again you’re going to have to decide
that for yourself that would lead you to
a 90% hit rate of green so a pretty
decent 12 months ahead from May through
to April of
20125 so it’s saying that the prices
would be higher just looking at this
2021 was the obvious example that it it
wasn’t so from May into April of 2022
the market was 35% lower so pretty big
hit there as for the 4year cycle low to
low not this harving cycle BS as soon as
you can scrap that from your your life I
think you’re going to do a lot better
that’s the stuff that the YouTube
Bitcoin crypto influencers talk about
scrap it from your life so low to low
because this can be used on any Market
you’re looking at Hurst Cycles that’s
what this is the left and the right
translated cycle now previously previous
cycle 2019 a lot thought the 19 was
going to be a left translated cycle
because it ran up so hard paused for a
long time Consolidated and then we went
into a right so we got a peak in the
second half of the four years that is
all that means right it was a strong
bull market Case Closed Market ran down
for 12 months and then here we are again
so again two months ago we saw a lot of
people suggesting that we’re going to
see a left translated cycle this was
going to shoot to 100K 150k it might
have been over in March it might have
been over in ail and that was it but I
still don’t think that that is the case
especially if we get this grinding
effect over the the next month maybe two
or three months from here just looking
at the previous Cycles you can see we
had five months five months five months
four months in a trading range there’s
going to be a lot of emotions up and
down but by the time we break out of
those tops it could be June it could be
July it could be August and that would
then lead to the possibility of the
market running up into this next top
which could happen sometime late quarter
4 or sorry quarter 4 of 2024 or quarter
1 2025 we have to keep going with the
chart for all we know it could grind out
again and then keep pushing higher till
the end of 2025 so I personally would
not put a label on this to say that it
must be a left or it must be a right
because by the time you get to that
stage if conditions have changed it’s
important to be able to be flexible and
get out of a position or be flexible and
remain with the trend as it continues
higher so that’s a look at the uh the
4-year cycle there this grinding out at
the moment whether it lasts a month 3
months is looking like a very very
healthy thing for Bitcoin to then push
higher for this next leg to the upside
just looking at the breakouts of the 50%
levels here so we got the 50% of the
entire bare Market range once it breaks
out closes above that level in the past
we’ve seen approximately 13 months
whoops to the all-time high 12 months to
the alltime high 10 months to the
all-time high so what does that look
like from the breakout bar which was
February 10 months so using the shortest
period here that would take us out to
about December of 24 so that’s where I’m
getting that end of 24 date from and if
we were to go something like 13 months
from the alltime high uh from that
breakout of the 50% to the all-time high
that’ll take us to about March of 25 so
I’m keeping the options open there of
that period of quarter 4 to quarter 1
coming up um end of 24 or early 25 and
then reassessing to see where the
market’s at if this thing is
ridiculously crazy like it was at the
peak here and everyone’s thinking it’s
going to go to 500k or something
ridiculous then maybe it would be time
for a bit of a a cool off and then you
would see whether the swings start to
break down that would be a very very big
signal that the masses have got it wrong
again and you’re probably going to see
further downside in terms of prices uh
just want to have a quick look here
something fun to to play with looking at
the total range now so I’m not wetted to
this whatsoever we’re looking at the
entire range of the previous bull market
projected off the current cycle low so
the current bare Market low of November
20120 50% was at 482k and we saw some
resistance there on the ETF news as the
market ran up into January there was a
pullback and now we’ve seing it break
through the 50% so this is what we do on
the shortterm basis but on a macro scale
here using yearly uh moves in the market
100% gets us to 81 A5 th000 so we’re not
there yet we have to see how it hits and
what type of reaction there is at 81 or
does it slice through and then onto uh
one sorry 150% would take it out to
about
$114,000 now a doubling of the entire
move projected off this low at 15K would
take the market to about 147 so as a
Rough Guide something like 100 to
150k could be a reasonable price Target
but with a big disclaimer how is it
going to respond to those priced uh
resistance levels in the
$80,000 that is the disclaimer on these
moves to get to 100 to 150 I know it is
way under what a lot of people in in the
Bitcoin space look at but I like to keep
it a little bit more sensible and not go
off the deep end with million dollar
Bitcoin calls that could be many cycles
away I don’t expect the million dollar
Bitcoin to be in this cycle and uh I’m
happy to be proven wrong of course I
think many people would be very happy to
be proven wrong if Bitcoin can get to a
million but that aside I’m interested to
see how it reacts to 80 grand sometime
later this year probably the second half
of the year and then how does it react
in that 100 to
150k and that’s where it could start to
look to get out of more positions so the
end of this has been mostly my uh
thoughts on where the market would go
what I would do and what happens at
those points the the data specific stuff
we’ve covered there looking at the
monthly returns going across month and
uh sorry 6 month and 12 months and I
think I’m going to leave the uh altcoins
to the next video plenty of time to get
through this has has had some 50%
rejections here and of course the the
volume is still dying off but overall I
hope that has helped you for May May
hasn’t given too many great big signals
that it’s going to be the month that
Bitcoin then pushes to a new Fresh
all-time high just based on what we can
see here however it doesn’t seem like
the market is over and that this is a
good 6 months to sell in May and go away
just based on what we have seen in the
years that are not bare Market years and
essentially with the the price where
it’s at with the rejection and the
potential consolidation lasting
potentially to 3 five months from the
peak of March that would suggest that
the period in the second half of the
year is probably going to be higher than
where it currently is right now so if
May opens it 62 or
63,000 what the data has suggested is
that we’re probably going to be higher
than that come October when the rule
says to buy back for the Halloween
effect of course I could be wrong I’m
just running off the data here I’m not
willing to sell it all up and then come
back in
October the call is entirely up to you
even if we were to see a pullback that
to me would be the signal to be buying
up that dip and then running this thing
later into 24 for and potentially
hopefully into 2025 like And subscribe
we are crushing it beating the YouTube
Al algorithm uh and the YouTube
audiences 4,000 likes I’ll see you guys
back for another video potentially out
on location again out at the beach
cheers again guys I’ll see you the next
one take care and peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, ST, market sentiment, f&g
10:00 Bitcoin, Weekly
11:20 Bitcoin, Monthly
18:50 Bitcoin, price projections

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews