Market outlook into May: Gold, Stocks, BTC, Energy | 25 Apr 2024

Market outlook into May: Gold, Stocks, BTC, Energy | 25 Apr 2024

hello there it’s been a tough month for
General stock market which is down
6% at around the same time Bitcoin is
mostly sideways gold has shot up
recently but over the last few days it’s
sort of correcting at the moment energy
is uh doing the same thing it’s in a bit
of a correction at the moment so I just
want to take this opportunity to have a
quick review very brief review of a
range of markets and we’re going to
start with Bitcoin I actually haven’t
looked at cryptocurrencies together with
you guys on YouTube for quite a while
and what’s happening here is that the
current cycle in Bitcoin is 35 days long
for now generally historically these
Cycles in Bitcoin last for around a
couple of months so based on the average
duration for these Cycles I still do
expect a bit of a softness in Bitcoin
for perhaps one or two or even three
weeks purely technically we saw some
poking below the bulling bands but the
bulling bands weren’t very wide yet so
the price was rejected from the 50-day
moving average which will probably give
us another low sometime in the next
couple of weeks which will be that cycle
low with a bit of a buying opportunity
closer to that 200 day moving average
looking at Market sentiment for Bitcoin
we see that it’s quite volatile the blue
line at the lower part of the chart so
for that reason I also like to look at
the 10-day moving average of this
Bitcoin Optics which is the solid green
line at the lower part of this chart and
as you see every cycle low for Bitcoin
does come with this 10day moving average
of the Bitcoin Optics somewhere below
the level of 40 over the last couple of
days this green line this 10day moving
average of the Bitcoin Optics has
dropped just below 40 we are now at 36
but as I mentioned I do expect a little
more softness from Bitcoin in the short
term just based on the average duration
of these Bitcoin Cycles next moving on
to the general stock market S&P 500 in
front of you a few days ago we’ve seen
the end of this second daily cycle of
this ongoing intermediate cycle we’ve
seen a bit of a bounce since then over
the last several days in fact at my
finance teacher.org we were expecting a
bit of a bounce into that third daily
cycle which would be only a temporary
relief rally as we’re clearly going to
decline down into the intermediate cycle
low at the end of this third daily cycle
so a likely scenario in the short term
is perhaps another few days higher maybe
a fake poke above the 50-day moving
average rejection from that and a
continuation down into that intermediate
cycle low again much closer to the 200
day moving average after all at the
moment the stock market is quite a bit
stretched above that longer term 200 day
moving average looking at the optics for
the General stock market we see that
mostly not every time but mostly these
intermediate cycle lows which by the way
last for around a half a year do like to
be accompanied by this Optics anywhere
below the level of 50 very often pretty
close to the level of 40 and even
sometimes quite a bit below that
recently Optics bounced from under 50
currently we are at 56 again I do expect
a continuation down relatively soon down
into that slightly severe intermediate
cycle low bring us back down towards the
200 day moving average next let’s look
at iron ore the last time we looked at
iron ore was all the way back in late
March and back then we were expecting
continuation of a correction down for a
while before the bounce into that next
cycle at that time we were expecting one
of these two scenarios either the green
or the red one that turned out to be
pretty close to how the price actually
evolved we’re now back at the 200 day
moving average and while this ongoing
cycle is only 24 days long usually these
Cycles last for nearly 4 months on iron
ore so despite this cycle being
relatively young to be honest I I don’t
really expect RN or to perform extremely
well not with the US Stock Market going
down into its intermediate cycle low and
to be honest the fundamentals in the
Chinese market don’t look extremely
healthy either luckily as I showing the
model portfolio for the members at my
finance teacher.org I was buying a few
of those largest just iron or producers
somewhere on that first low which after
a bit of a further dip turned out to be
a relatively acceptable trade perhaps
although iron or producers haven’t
really performed extremely well versus
iron ore itself here’s the ratio of
producers to ore you see it’s mostly
sideways which by the way also means
that producers aren’t
overvalued next moving on to crude oil a
very interesting news with crude oil
back in late March was that crude oil
was breaking out of this relatively
long-term downtrend that has been
respected all the way since early
2022 more recently we see a bit of a
correction down to retest that breakout
usually purely based on the chart
technicals somewhat less experienced
investors would see a retest a
successful Bounce from that expecting a
continuation of the trend higher we
however as you know do like to look at
the cycles and uh we are getting long
over here and this recent correction
down from 86 down to about $80 doesn’t
look severe enough for a normal crude
oil cycle low so perhaps a bit of a
bounce from this 50-day moving average
as well as from this long-term downtrend
break below that downtrend break below
the 50-day moving average to give us the
regular cycle low Cycles by the way
usually last for over 5 months on crude
oil and that upcoming cycle low perhaps
again in another couple of weeks would
be a buying opportun unity in energy
lastly and perhaps most excitingly let’s
have a quick look at gold looks like
gold has finished the daily cycle the
first of this ongoing intermediate cycle
these daily Cycles usually last for
nearly a couple of months on average
slightly less than that for that cycle
low I would like to place this Arrow
here within the intermediate Cycles
though we do see a few daily Cycles so
in the short term I do expect a bit of a
bounce higher in gold perhaps a poke
above the Bullinger bands before we drop
down into the end of the second daily
cycle so there is a pretty good chance
that gold has already topped for this
ongoing intermediate cycle just within
the rally into the first daily cycle
maybe a bit of a repeated High whether
it’s going to be a higher high or not
remains to be seen before the correction
down into that intermediate cycle low
after all if you look at Market
sentiment for gold Optics is pretty high
it recently reached 73 that’s pretty
close to this red line there is a chance
that the intermediate cycle has topped
although there is also a nearly 50/50
chance of a higher high again before
correction down into that intermediate
cycle low if you’re still holding a bit
too much cash that intermediate cycle
low would be a nice buying opportunity
for scoop up some of those
underperforming miners remember miners
are underperforming lately versus the
gold price Dev itself eventually that
will reverse and you want to position
yourself properly for that eventuality
talking about miners back at myfinance
teacher.org we do regularly look at
fundamental value for a range of
relatively large gold and silver Miners
and more excitingly in the category
Juniors for Metals we also review some
of the most promising explorers and
developers that might provide that
additional torque to your portfolio once
miners are finally overperforming gold
itself recently looked at a pretty
unique developer here with an amazing
potential for unlocking some value
through a spin-off where the developer
owns a large share of another company
and based on the market cap the value of
that share is larger than the market cap
of this given developer how crazy is
that all due to this misalignment
between relatively expensive precious
metals and the share prices of the
miners so for unique un details like
this and for much more make sure to join
us at my finance teacher.org have a
great day bye-bye

Crude oil & recession: https://youtu.be/reoDS-Dd6oA
Silver Report: https://youtu.be/PQ8kwkJjh1w
Long-term Gold vs US$: https://youtu.be/vbTpDZCfy3U
FED rates and gold price: https://youtu.be/So12jLAPVm4
FED inflation target and gold price: https://youtu.be/ARnJ-bJZq08
Money supply and gold price: https://youtu.be/ln4NDBH3pEY
CPI and gold price: https://youtu.be/FFRjKLexazo

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