Gold & Silver Could Spike in Next 12-18 Months

Gold & Silver Could Spike in Next 12-18 Months

[Applause]
you are listening to the Daily gold
podcast covering precious metals the
junior mining sector and Global Capital
markets for intelligent investors now
here is your host Jordan Roy
burn hey everyone welcome back to the
Daily gold podcast thank thank you so
much for joining me today with us today
he’s not a new guest I’ve had him on
before he’s Jeff Christian he is the
founder and managing partner of CPM
group of precious medals
consultancy and you know guys in in our
industry in our business with precious
metals you know there can be a lot of
you know hyperbolic statements going
around and and that type of thing and so
you know when we talk to Jeff we know
that we are getting the Real and True
Facts so I don’t want to irritate any of
my listeners and audience out there
because you know that I’m you know I’m
all about
facts uh but you know there are some
segments and I appreciate these people
but they do get a little Fantastical and
you know hyperbolic at times I get a
little hyperbolic at times but uh Jeff
you know enough of me droning on here
let’s get right to it because I know
you’re very busy uh the first thing is
which I want to hear from you can you
please discuss all of the factors that
you think are driving this move in gold
right
now oh my good
um there are a lot of factors driving
gold right now and one of the things
that is very prominent is that political
issues both International political
issues and domestic political issues in
a number of countries are much
more important in driving investment
demand for gold than they have been for
a long long time decades um you know and
I the the simple question answer to your
question is what’s driving gold is
investment demand you know the and then
you can drill down and say well why are
investors buying gold and is it one big
whale the way some people say no it’s
not what we’re seeing is a very diverse
group of in uh investors you ge
geographically diverse you have
investors buying a lot of gold in China
in the Middle East in India in other
Asian countries in Europe in the United
States and Canada you know you have a
very geographically dispersed demand for
gold you also have a demographically
diverse uh diverse uh demand for gold in
that you’re seeing large
institutions um smaller institutions
specialty funds uh commodity index funds
commodity funds retail investors buying
gold so it it’s a very
widespread demand uh there may you know
central banks have been buying more gold
over the last few years um it’s not
clear the extent to which they’ve been
participating in the March and April
increase in prices because Central Banks
tend to be much more price sensitive uh
than retail investors or institutional
investors investors will chase a price
higher and central banks will tend to
say I’m going to wait until the
investors leave the price comes down and
we’ll buy on the dips now that’s changed
over the last few years and central
banks have been showing increased
willingness to buy gold at higher prices
you know levels at which they would have
assed buying gold four years ago five
years ago so it’s hard to say whether or
not central banks are in there we do
know that if you look at the People’s
Bank of China which in in
2023 net Central Bank demand for gold
was 14 million ounces and the People’s
Bank of China accounted for 7 million
out of that 14 million and the People’s
Bank was basically sing up excess gold
that had come into the Chinese market in
2022
you had a very sharp decline in
investment demand and jewelry demand in
China in 2022 the price went from 2040
down to 1640 in early November of 2022
The People’s Bank which had not bought
any gold from 2019 until November of
2022 uh came back in and said at 1640
we’re buyers and they were consistent
buyers and they stopped up a lot of that
excess metal that had built up in the
Chinese market by the end of
2023 in the first two months of this
year the People’s Bank has continued to
buy gold but at half the monthly rate
that they were buying last year you know
so it’s not clear about central banks
but you know again going back to your
question it’s broad-based investment
demand demographically geographically
the types of investors who are buying
central banks may be in there and then
you say well why are they buying and
that goes back to my first part of the
response politics are very important
International politics
Russia uh’s invasion of Ukraine the
absolutely unethical behavior of the US
Congress and delaying for six months
getting additional arms to Ukraine the
equally unethical US government policy
of prolonging that war unnecessarily by
withholding offensive weapons from the
Ukraine government you know the US
government has a policy they want that
war to continue because the longer it
continues the more destructive it is of
Putin’s regime and Russia as a as a
world power and as an economic power and
and so that’s continuing you have the
Middle Eastern problems coming in you
have ongoing issues related to Taiwan
and China’s attitude toward Taiwan you
have a number of Civil Wars going on
from Sudan to to uh Burma U whatever
it’s called now and um other things
there then you have the domestic
politics you have very much
dysfunctional not only domestic politics
but social uh Norms breaking down in the
United States not in too good of shape
in Canada or Mexico in bad shape in the
UK in worse shape in various European
countries ranging from Italy to Hungary
to Poland uh and Germany and France uh
and then you have Chinese domestic
politics uh which are showing some very
interesting developments as well as
India and other countries so you have
domestic and international political
factors that have become much more
important in investors minds and that’s
been driving some of the demand for gold
you also have economic issues including
interest rates being higher uh you have
a strong stock market you have a lot of
people who made a a lot of money in
stocks and bonds over the last year or
so and they’re very much worried they’re
looking at the economic Outlook they’re
looking at Financial Market outlooks and
they’re saying okay let’s say that the
stock market declines how do I protect
how do I capitalize some of my recent
gains and some of that money is moving
into gold and gold assets uh out of the
stock market and such you know and I
know that you guys you know the other
people you interview always they don’t
talk about a decline in the stock market
the stock market’s going to collapse the
stock market’s dead that’s nonsense I’m
sorry you know with all due respect the
people who have different opions the
idea that the stock market is going to
collapse is just nonsense you know the
stock market collapsed in uh September
October of 1987 by December it was back
up where it had been you know the stock
market declines and then it picks up
again yeah um and people say oh my God
to cut to cut you off I agree with you
by the way because even during the
global financial crisis you know this
collapse and this collaps and if you
look at the definition you’re right
that’s really 1929 1987 e even a 40%
bare Market is not a collapse when you
actually look at the definition of
collapse so yes that that term gets
overused and used incorrectly yeah
NASDAQ collapsed
85% yes that’s a collapse yes and then
it dusted itself off and made new
records yeah you lost five you know not
you but investors lost like five
trillion dollars in the in the Internet
stock bubble burst in in
200201 well I I did I was investing then
so I did lose a little bit but I did get
in early enough that that I I came out I
came out uh much higher so just that’s
that’s a that’s a side story so you’re
not incorrect there I mean I I yeah
anyway you know so the the to to wrap it
up the simple question answer to your
question is there are all sorts of
economic financial and political factors
that are driving investors around the
world to buy more gold and that’s what’s
pushing the price
up to to follow up on
that um educate us on how the factors
may have changed given the move in Gold
let’s say from 2100 to 2400 it is there
a factor or two that is going ahead of
the pack there and driving this Rec
breakout in gold or is it kind of too
early to tell well it’s very interesting
because yeah one of the factors that’s
happened is again the The increased
importance of political developments in
the minds of investors has definitely
increased over the last two years three
years uh it probably should have
increased earlier but you know uh
sometimes we’re all a little bit slow to
wake up
um another factor is that if you go back
to 2021 20 22 people’s concern about
inflation was a factor driving them some
investors into gold and it drove gold
prices to record highs as was a decline
in the stock market in 2020 late 2023
into early 2024 and I guess it’s not
early anymore it’s the you know a third
of the year is over already what you’re
seeing is that there’s still some
residual inflation concern but High
stock prices are driving investment
demand because again people are looking
to capitalize their gains and protect
themselves from an in
in an inevitable decline in the stock
prices even if they only fall 10% why
would you put up with that uh and
another Factor that’s changed is
interest rates uh where there was a
consensus CPM group was sort of off to
the side of the consensus that interest
rates would have to fall and they would
have to fall fast and far in 2022 and in
2023 and by late 2023 the financial
markets were finally coming to
understand perhaps that monetary
authorities were telling them what they
were going to do and then doing it you
know and the fed and and the ECB and
other central banks were very clear and
very explicit that interest rates would
hang up higher longer than the financial
markets seemed willing to accept and the
financial markets were hoping for a
decline in the stock market and that
would help gold in fact what’s happened
is interest rates have held
up and people are saying okay interest
rates are holding up now the
relationship between interest rates and
gold prices is very important to
understand what’s really important is
why are interest rates high or rising or
low or falling right if interest rates
are are
high because the FED is quelling
inflation and inflation goes from 9% to
3.8% uh or 2.8% or
3.8% uh then investors say well okay the
monetary authorities are doing their job
and they’re succeeding and controlling
inflation I don’t need to buy gold if
interest rates are high and the
inflation has plateaued at twice the
level of what the FED says investors can
say wait a second this is an indication
that inflation is perhaps not under
control and it could rise again which
would prompt even higher interest rates
and greater weakness in the overall
economy therefore I should buy gold so
one of the things that you have to do
when you’re looking at interest rates
relationship with gold is you have to
look at why interest rates are there and
and and and what we’ve seen over the
last three to six six months is uh
people are saying wait a second interest
rates are high uh and they’re not
falling because inflation is still an
issue and that’s been a big change you
know another thing is the actual levels
if you look at the relationship between
changes in interest real inflation
adjusted interest rates and gold prices
what you find is like a 16% correlation
um and and what you find is there are
periods when they’re moving you know
higher interest rates of driving gold
prices down there are periods where
higher interest rates and higher gold
prices coexist which is sort of what
we’re seeing right now um and you look
and say well where where is it that
higher interest rates are negative for
gold and it’s a 3% real interest rate
right so a few weeks ago I was saying to
you know look 3% real interest rates 4%
inflation that’s 7% nominal rates I
don’t know anyone who’s predicting 7%
nominal US Treasury rates the next day
Jamie Diamond said hey nominal interest
rates could go to 8% uh so maybe you
know people are starting to think that
but it really takes like 3% or higher
real rates before investors say I can
lock in 3% real rates uh on treasuries
why am I investing in gold so we’ve got
a long way to go because right now
you’ve got
3.8% uh real nominal you have 3.8%
inflation you have 5% five and a quarter
percent interest rates 5% well if you go
out 10 years or five years it’s 4%
you’ve got you know less than half a
percent real interest rates so you’ve
got a long way to go before real
interest rates are a drag on gold prices
the other factor that we keep saying is
look stop hoping for lower interest
rates because the FED will not lower
interest rates because everything’s
going well they you know inflation
slowly coming down and the economy is
doing very well we’re reducing inflation
on a slow basis and we’re not throwing
the economy into a recession the FED
will only lower interest rates when
there are much more concerned about the
economic Outlook so you shouldn’t be
rooting for lower interest rates because
when you see lower interest rates that
means that the monetary authorities who
are much more on top of the econom than
you are as a private investor or even a
stock broker or a gold promoter the fed
you know lower interest rates will tell
you that the fed and monetary
authorities are really worried about the
economic
Outlook and you know you may say well
this is good for gold but it’s bad for
you as an economic agent in the real
world so don’t root for lower interest
rates because they’re going to be a sign
that the you know the collapse of
Western Civilization or something less
than that is
occurring okay Jeff just one followup I
don’t know if it’s a followup I I want
to talk about bonds because if you look
at you know gold divided by TLT or
whatever Bond thing you want to use I
mean that chart has gone parabolic in
the last couple years is you know we’ve
had the huge sell off at Bond since 2021
I mean I personally think we’re in a new
secular bare Market in bonds based on
the data that I’m looking at the data
everything that you’re looking at I mean
what impact are you seeing from let’s
just say Boomers and other Bond
investors just putting some of that
money into gold is that having any
impact in the market is it is it too
early to tell or is it just really not
that significant well I think you have
to look at what bonds you’re looking at
and you know one of the things that
we’ve seen over the course of 2023 and
into 2024 is actually very strong demand
for treasury bonds and treasury notes uh
you know the uh the amount of treasuries
held by offshore entities governments
and investors Rose 10 and a half% last
year to a record eight trillion doll so
there’s no there’s no central banks
dumping
treasuries you know in fact they’re
moving the treasuries and that goes back
to the first first question is like
what’s driving this what you’re seeing
right now is increased concerns on the
part of investors about the political
future the economic future financial
institute stability and we’ve seen this
across financial markets there is a
drisking and us treasuries are the least
risky or among the least risky interest
bearing assets you can have so and that
you need that US dollars to buy them you
need US dollars to buy real estate us
real estate is probably the best real
estate that you can invest in and gold
so you’re seeing very strong demand for
the dollar you’re seeing very strong
demand for treasuries and you’re seeing
strong demand for gold so if you’re
talking about treasuries I don’t
necessarily see weakness if you’re
talking about anything else that has a
higher risk and if there’s a lot of
counterparty risk then you have people
getting away from it so on a macro level
you’ve seen a shift away from corporate
bonds and municipal bonds to treasuries
on a gold level you’ve had this
situation over the last three and a half
years until the middle of March where
investors were buying 24 25 26 million
ounces of physical gold a year out of
concern yeah those that’s a high volume
of gold net investment demand um but
they were selling ETFs you lost about I
think six million ounces of ETF Holdings
over the last three years or maybe it
was more than that no it was six it was
six last year was 20 over the last three
years so you’ve seen investors moving
away from
ETFs that’s a publicly available piece
of data so people say oh well investors
must not be interested in Gold because
ETF Holdings are falling no actually
investors have been stepping up and
buying more gold but they want gold
owned directly they don’t want shares of
offshore companies that have all sorts
of financial Market counterparty risk
between the managers and the
administrators and the depositories they
say no I want to own gold as a risk
aversion asset and I want to own that
gold directly I may not store it myself
but I want to own it directly I don’t
want ETFs so you’re seeing on a micro
level in terms of the gold market you’re
seeing investors saying I want to drisk
and I want to get rid of counterparty
risk and you’re seeing the same thing on
a macro level for example in the bond
market where people are saying I’m still
interested in treasuries because they
are relatively more secure or lower risk
but I want to get rid of some of these
other bonds corporate bonds um municipal
bonds sovereign debt issued by countries
that are not in as good of shape as the
United States so that’s what I see about
that’s what I think about bonds if that
answers your question well let me just
press you a little bit because you say
that people are buying bonds and I I
mean I it’s not an incorrect statement I
mean we have the interest rates are very
high people can make a good income on
that but still like if you just compare
if you’re looking at the total return on
bonds you know I mean I guess most of
the decline was in 2022 but you look at
the total return on bonds history
historically you know since the FED
started hiking they’ve been a
disaster you know and gold divided by
bonds that intermarket relationship gold
has been crushing bonds so um I mean I I
know I think I read that China is
starting to buy a little bit more
they’re going back into buying
treasuries uh but I guess in the last
couple years I mean it a lot of money
has I mean investors have been selling
bonds you know because rates of been
they sold they were selling bonds when
they were quarter percent interest rate
you know so yeah so you’re you’re you’re
say you’re saying it’s kind of
stabilized now and and and you know
there’s more there’s been more buying
2023 and 2024 are not 2021 2022 I mean
it’s it’s night and day in terms of the
bond market in terms of the stock market
in terms of gold market and let’s so so
let yeah let let let me interrupt so you
don’t see people like Boomers in the US
trimming their bonds or selling their
bonds and buying
gold we’re not really seeing a lot of
that and that’s actually one of the
themes that we have at CPM group in
terms of our business plan and
everything is looking at younger
investors who have not necessarily you
know there was a period of time say 209
through
2019 when you did see younger investors
moving into gold and to a lesser extent
silver but once the pandemic hit and the
global lockdown and the global recession
hit and in the in the subsequent four
years now three years uh three plus
years um we have seen we haven’t seen
that con Trend continue and it’s an
issue I think for the gold market the
silver market and the gold and silver
mining companies that they need to do
some Outreach and
education uh for younger investors
because in in the United States and in
Europe I don’t think you’re seeing the
kind of demand for gold and silver that
you would expect otherwise from younger
investors yeah how young are we talking
about here we talking about 20s 30s 20s
and 30s yeah 20s and 30s yeah if you
look at the demographics of gold
investors they’ve actually been
relatively stable since I got into the
business in the 70s in the late 70s
somebody did a demographic study of who
was buying physical gold in the United
States and
um it was like you know 40 to
65 educated 90% of the gold being
purchased in the United States were
college educated professional lot of
whites um males at the time um upper
income 40 to 65 somebody else did that
study again in the late 90s and it was
you know college educated upper income
40 to 65 but females were much more
prominent they were probably equally
divided between male and female so
females had taken over a substantial
portion of household financial decision
making by the late 1990s U it didn’t
feel like that if you were a female
but you know on a on a annual on an
average basis in the surveys you know
you you saw that shift but yeah again
it’s 40 to 65 and that makes sense
because those are the salad years you
know that’s when you have highest income
uh and you probably have the highest
disposable income
too just a quick follow up on that do
you have any data on 20s and 30s people
going into crypto
well I mean not really and I Tred to pay
as little attention to cryptos as
possible me me too me too but I had to
ask it but you know if you look at the
quote market cap of cryptos you know it
went from virtually what nothing like
$500
billion at the end of
2021 to3 trillion dollar at the end of
22 to$ 800 billi million dollars you
billion dollars at the end of 2023 back
to about 2.7 so you know fortunes have
been made and lost in cryptos um and you
do see that I mean there was somebody
who tried to have a silver and crypto
conference last year and it was overrun
by people who were more interested in
cryptos who were younger people who also
wanted to spend more time in the casinos
than in the lecture
Halls yeah not surprising when you’re
thinking about crypto and the people who
are buying crypto but but anyway Jeff
let’s get in okay just a couple more
questions let’s talk about the gold ETFs
because you know they’re they haven’t
been adding gold as we’ve had this great
move so give me some color on what what
you think is driving that and uh if you
have any forecasts on if people will
come back to the gold ETFs well as I
said you know up until the middle of
March you had seen for three and a
quarter years net sales of gold ETFs and
our take on that was that it wasn’t that
these investors were negative on gold in
many cases we think they were selling
their gold ETFs and buying physical gold
replacing it that position or part of
that position with physical gold it was
a matter of counterparty risk where they
wanted to not have
gold that they didn’t have access to you
know they had gold sh they had shares in
a gold ETF which was an offshore company
whatever that means a lot of people
don’t even know uh that was administered
and managed by financial institutions
and it was interesting because in 2021
and 2022 you actually
saw people selling the smaller ETFs and
the larger ETFs were growing during that
period of time in terms of number of
Holdings and what you were seeing there
were people saying I want if I do want
to hold my go through ETFs I want to
hold it in largest most liquid uh funds
ETFs that are managed by systemically
important financial institutions so you
had in 2021 2022 people shifting out of
the smaller ETFs into the bigger ones
after credit swo went bust a year ago
you know uh in March I I think it was
March of 2023 you started seeing the
bigger ones do drop too and so you you
you it’s a it’s a matter of of
counterparty risk there now in the
middle in the second in the last two
weeks of March we saw a lot of people
pour into ETFs and what that was was the
gold price was starting to accelerate
its
increase you know its rise and there
were any number of investors who said I
need to buy gold exposure and the
easiest and quickest way is to click a
button on my screen and buy ETFs so we
wrote something for our clients at the
time and said okay we think that what
you’re looking at is investors saying I
need gold short-term investors many of
whom are not in the gold Market Per Se
saying I want to buy gold exposure the
easiest quickest way to do that is with
an ATF we think that’s a short-term
phenomenon and if the gold price sort of
stabilizes at higher prices or even
Falls yeah we think that you’ll see you
know the ETF investors as a whole going
back to net liquidations um and and
again you know I guess it’s partly a
matter of Education that that industry
should be uh working on trying to
convince investors that the the
counterparty risk is not as great as
they might think it
is okay Jeff uh I I want to get if you
have a forecast or or I want to say
prediction because that so you know
everybody you don’t need any expertise
to make a prediction but let’s think
about a market forecast I did notice the
title of another interview where it said
2025 you know gold is going higher
there’s going to be a recession I don’t
know if you actually said that or if the
publisher took Liberty with the title
because we know how that works uh what
yeah what what are your at least
currently what are you sensing what
could come for the gold market in like
let’s say the next 12 18
months our expectation is that you will
see you might see the gold price sort of
consolidate over the next several months
there’s some seasonality that will kick
in you’ve also got prices already having
risen to a very high level there should
maybe some backing off of the fears but
that by the time we get to August or
September or the fourth quarter economic
and political conditions become more
problematic investors resume their
buying and we see gold prices move to
New highs our expectation had been that
the price would be relatively quiet in
the first half of this year RIS in the
last four months of this year into 2025
we still think that the B that the big
increase comes in the last four months
of this year into 2025 so we’re still
looking for new record highs yet this
year or early next
year the big increase uh second half or
towards the end of the year I mean that
considering we’ve actually had a good
increase already I mean you so you see
you can see an even bigger move I mean
I’m not saying I don’t want to put words
in your mouth but that we could see an
even bigger move second half of the year
you know we project we don’t predict we
project we project annual average prices
and we have annual average we’ve had
annual average prices over the last
three four years and we continue to
expect a new record much Li larger this
year it was
1950 last year was the average price got
up to 2100 or whatever but the average
was 1950 last year we have a much higher
average for this year and for
2025 and then within that average you
have to say well how high can it Spike
and you know we’d say you go back to
1980 gold went from $190 to
$850 over the course of
1979 but the average price in 1980 was
like
$600 silver went from you know $5 to 50
and the average price was something like
$21
so if we’re saying that we’re looking
for an average price of gold and silver
that are close to if not higher than you
know in the case of gold new record in
the case of silver close to the annual
the record annual average price which
was about
3435 an ounce in
201122 that doesn’t say a lot to you
about how high the prices could Spike on
an intraday basis you know so our our
expectations is yeah the prices could
Spike higher so you know I don’t see
gold at
10,000 I I I wouldn’t be surprised to
see Gold Spike sharply higher late this
year early next year uh well that that
that
soon yeah I mean election is the the
first Tuesday after the first Monday of
November yeah um so I think that the
political environment and the econom IC
environment are such that you know late
this year early next year you probably
will see another spike in prices I’m not
sure how high it would go I kind of
doubt that it goes over
$3,000 because there are a lot of people
who would take profits at 2,7
83,000 as they did at 850 in in 1980 and
as they did at uh
$1,900 in 2011
what does that mean for silver so it it
s it sounds like I mean I know you’re I
mean you’re aware of of technicals and
price action and all that I’ve never
heard you talk about it publicly but you
know me and other people are looking at
Silver and looking at that $50
resistance and gee if silver can
ever you know get above $50 Jeff you
know that the silver bugs
are they’re going to be pretty
irritating if that happens um so so do
you think silver could based on what
you’re saying you think silver could
Spike to somewhere close to 50 but then
it would come back down to the 30s yes
exactly you know for all of the silver
bugs who say if it breaks above 50 it’s
gonna go to a 100 or 700 or 3,000 there
are many more people who are sitting on
Silver and have been disappointed that
it hasn’t gotten back to 30 let alone 50
and at $50 the economics of silver
mining of silver scrap refining of using
silver in a whole array of of
manufactured products change and you
know you can see $50 but you can’t
sustain $50 because there’s five and a
half billion ounces of silver in refined
form above the ground mostly hold held
by investors who and some portion of
them will take profits now if you go
back to 1980 it was probably 10% of the
above ground stocks or less that came
into the silver market when the price
went from five to $50 this less than 10%
of the above ground silver inventories
were sold in that rally but it was
enough to take the price down it VAR
sharply from $50 to $16 and there was
some government intervention that helped
out there in silver yeah oh so did
didn’t they they raised the margin re
requirements and and something like that
to the Hunt Brothers they’re trying to
Corner the market the US government has
nothing to do with the the margin
requirements that actually the US
government did step in and that it
supervised the bailout of the Hunts
after the market had collapsed the
exchanges raised the margins and then
ultimately did did they keep a
liquidation only yeah I mean I I need to
yeah read up more on that but didn’t
they ra didn’t they raise them like
multiple times yeah and that’s not
uncommon and it’s not uncommon across
Commodities you know silver people look
at the silver market with silver shaded
glasses and if they looked at commodity
markets in general they’d see that the
margins rise and fall across Commodities
all the time and uh you know one of the
myths of the Hunt Brothers debacle is
that the exchanges changed the rules on
the Hunt Brothers they didn’t they
imposed the rules that were on the books
all along the the you know the comx and
the CBT and the CME all had in their
rule books that the boards that
controlled the exchanges had the p uh
authority to take such steps as were
necessary to maintain this the the
Integrity of the markets and if you go
back then and you know I knew
Nelson uh bunker hunt and I was very
much involved in the markets at that
time if you go back then you know it
wasn’t just the silver market that was
shaking it was other commodity markets
and it was the broader Financial system
but it wasn’t because of the Hunts and
it wasn’t because of margins it was
because Paul wer had taken over the fed
and said you guys have been targeting
interest rates and the inflation rate
has gone to 14% we’re going to Target
going forward inflation
and so we’re taking us treasury bill
rates from 7% to 21% to squeeze the
inflation out of the system and it threw
us into what was then the deepest
recession in the postwar
period and that had implications for
everything from copper to wheat to
Silver and Gold to stocks and bonds to
household inome as you know I mean you
know whatever you believe on all that
you know manipulation suppression you
can look at a price chart and I mean
anything that
goes those were the biggest I mean
probably the biggest parabolic moves
we’ve ever seen in major markets well
I’ll say this I try not to believe
anything and when somebody tells me Well
everybody’s open uh entitled to their
own opinion I say everybody’s entitled
to their own opinion if it’s based on
facts and if someone wants to say well
that’s just your
opinion uh and they’re holding a
position that is based on beliefs and
hearsay and nonsense I mean I hear so
much garbage about what was going on
with the Hunts and I even saw something
from a major purveyor of financial
Market data and they did a thing because
it was I guess 50 years or 40 years uh
since the Hunts and and they had this
guy who was supposedly a silver expert
within house and he gave a talk and I
was listening to I like that’s not at
all what happen yeah but that’s not
uncommon and you see that you know you
see that with the St stock market you
see that with uh somebody else sent me a
thing this morning uh history of Goldman
Sachs and you know I could Mark chalk up
like five or six heirs that they had not
just about Goldman Sachs but about the
financial markets in general um and
timing of things and why things happened
um there’s tremendous amount of
misinformation and
misunderstanding all all markets are
asymmetrical commodity markets are much
more as symmetrical than stock and bond
markets yes well Jeff that’s why I have
you on I mean that’s why I have other
people on as well I only deal in
fact-based analysis but I mean that is
your specialty in an industry where
people can you know they can escape
themselves from the facts and they get
hyperbolic and again that’s why I love
having you on my audience as well thank
you so much for coming on and answering
all my questions and uh you know we’ll
have to have you back later in the year
see if your projection has panned out I
H I happen to personally agree with you
so we’ll see you know let’s let’s talk
uh maybe in the summer or in the fall
and uh we’ll see how things are going
yeah absolutely you know it we issued a
bu recommendation on gold in mid
November 2000 and we said you know for
20 years people have been asking us will
you we see $850 gold again and for 20
years we could end that conversation by
saying you give me an economic and
political environment like we had in
1979 14% inflation 21% interest rates
American hostages in Iran Soviet troops
in Afghanistan a quadrupling of oil
prices the deepest recession in pow
period And I will grant you 850 and in
November of 2000 we said we think that
the economic and political environment
over the next several decades will be
much more hostile than it was in that
oneyear period 1979 and gold blows right
past 850 now that speech which was to
coincide with the launch of what was
then our gold survey not now our gold
yearbook was a week after George W Bush
was
elected wow it’s really impressive I’ll
talk to you in the middle of November
well Jeff before we sign off here um I
last thing for all the listeners out
there who want to learn more about your
work and follow work uh how can they do
so www. cpmr group.com is our website
there’s a lot of free reads and free
videos and free reports reports that
we’ve done as well as reports we’ve done
for white labels for other uh some of
our clients that distribute them to
their clients uh there are gold silver
Platinum yearbooks that you can buy we
will be launching our silver yearbook in
the middle of may you can pre-order it
we launched our gold yearbook uh in the
middle of March you can buy it and
download it as an ebook it’s like 240
pages of the definitive work on gold uh
and then you can send us an email at
info. cpmg group.com and say this is who
I am this is my exposure to Commodities
precious metals can you guys help me how
can you help
me okay great Jeff thanks so much for
coming on and look forward to following
up over the months
ahead glad to have be here call me again
I’m
around thank you for tuning in to the
Daily gold podcast for more interviews
editorials and Analysis log on to the
Daily
gold.com and for premium coverage of
precious metals and the best Junior
mining companies visit the daily
gold.com premium
[Applause]

Jeffrey Christian, Founding and Managing Director of CPM Group, a precious metals consultancy has followed, covered and advised on Gold and Silver for decades. He thinks the second half of 2024 will be stronger than the first for both metals and he says they have potential to spike in the next 12 to 18 months.

0:00 Intro
1:25 All the Factors Driving Gold Strength
10:00 Factors Driving Gold At $2300-$2400
17:15 Impact of Bonds on Gold
22:45 Younger Investors & Gold, Silver
26:50 Gold ETF Demand
30:20 Gold Price Outlook
34:00 Silver Price Outlook
36:00 Silver in 1980 & Hunt Brothers

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