RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER, Bitcoin Price On-Chain and Altcoin Market Similarity to Prior Blow-Off Run

RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER, Bitcoin Price On-Chain and Altcoin Market Similarity to Prior Blow-Off Run

[Music]
hey what’s going on everybody this is
the blockchain backer bringing you the
latest cryptocurrency news and Analysis
today we are going to be talking about
the Bitcoin price chart along with the
altcoin market while having a bigger
perspective View on where Bitcoin in the
cryptocurrency market is right now with
Bitcoin up here teetering near its
previous all-time highs most narratives
throughout there take a look at this and
say hey what happened the last time we
were at the previous all-time high what
happened to bitcoin after we got there
worked out the Zone well it kept on
going what happened in 2016 and 17 had
to work out the previous all-time high
then boom it just kept on going there’s
been no doubt I’ve expressed a different
opinion on the state of Bitcoin rather
than just being previous fouryear Cycles
block reward having and that it’s really
just one big giant liquidity trade with
the United States stock market and
Bitcoin heck you can even see the
correlation between copper you know the
metal copper and Bitcoin in regards to
bull market stall crash consolidation
rallying it’s really just one giant
liquidity game and I know there’s a lot
of narratives out there for the having
is going to melt faces or we can go on
Tim taes based on previous previous
Bitcoin cycles and whatnot but one thing
that’s been interesting over the last
several years has been the data that has
come out regarding onchain with Bitcoin
and I’ve talked about it a lot that the
altcoin market and Bitcoin are all
acting as if it’s much further along in
the cycle than Bitcoin just being back
at its previous all-time high like it
was back in 2020 but much more that
what’s going on in here is actually like
being in here we’ve talked about that
with the price action of Bitcoin that
it’s actually acting exactly like here
we are in January and February of 2021
which is right here January of 2021 but
that the altcoin market is acting the
same too that right here in January on
January 10th of 2021 the altcoin market
hit its retraces levels right here in
2024 the altcoin market hits its retrace
levels so not only do we have the
altcoin market getting to the same
location at the same time same
phenomenon price action the same but I
wanted to show you this over here
because I’ve seen people post about on
Twitter I’ve seen txmc post about this
on Twitter and this is called the
Bitcoin value days destroyed multiple
this chart is from glass node and we
could see that the value days destroyed
multiple Compares near-term spending
Behavior to the yearly average as a
means of detecting overheated and
undervalued markets its Effectiveness is
due to the nature of how Market tops are
formed via the increasing spending of
older coins that eventually overpower
demand meaning coins that come alive
that have been sitting dormant to be
sold when all this new demand comes in
Bitcoin ETFs we’re at the having but yet
somehow Supply makes its way to the
market ending euphoric bull runs
conversely as older coins remain dormant
and accumulation begins this metric will
Decline and bottom during capitulation
events in periods of accumulation so as
we could see on this chart as we got
near the Peaks there in 2012 and 2013 we
can see coins come out value days
destroyed older coins come and hit to
the market and we could see at the
bottom of bears no older coins are
coming out to be spent we get back into
a heated Market the coins come out to be
spent and we go into a bare and much
lower go back to the highs Boom Out Come
the coins to get spent and then no new
coins are coming back into the market
but what we see here is an extreme value
is above 2.9 which historically prints
at or just before cycle Peaks when
Market activity is at its highest and
many coins are changing hands if it’s
above a 1.4 it denotes that the market
is heating up and if it’s below 75 it
means usually in a bare market and when
accumulation is actually happening so
again going back to this and talking
about hey look the allcoin market hits
the retrace levels the allcoin market
hits the retrace levels price behavior
is acting very similar to as if we’re
not at the previous all-time Highs but
if we’re actually in here it’s the same
kind of Correction going on in here that
we’re showing here but this is the
interesting thing to look at too is to
look at what is happening with the older
coins are they coming out to be spent
and as we can see this metric has
flashed the extreme highs that we have
seen throughout all of bitcoin’s history
notice when we got back to the all-time
high here back in 2016 and 17 it was not
flashing notice when we got back to the
all-time high over here in
2020 it had not flashed yet but once we
made that next leg we got into January
it started flashing notice in 2016 and
17 once we got to the next legs it
started flashing but then really that
next one that’s where it started
printing this high of a level and so
let’s talk about what it meant the last
several times right in
2013 it actually was triggering once the
top of Bitcoin had already come in so it
got up to the peak it was flashing red
but its actual true Peak came in once
that crash had already taken place then
over here in
2013 it flashed right up near the peak
and then that was the that was the end
of it right so in 2012 and 2013 this was
the actual topping signal that happened
however we got a little bit of a
different signal over here in 2017 and
in
2021 it actually marked the moment
before the last run and the moment
before the last run back in 2017 and in
2020 so we’ll zoom in on that really
quick let’s first talk about 20120 right
in here so I’ll just grab that and you
can see how much it flashed right in
here after the break of of the all-time
high getting into January of 2021 which
is what we keep talking about in here
notice right now we’re flashing that
here in this same rally like we did back
in 2021 again this does not flash this
high with this much value days destroyed
when you’re just getting back to the
all-time high or when you’re just
getting back into the all-time high but
it happens when you’re way further along
either you’re at the top at the top or
at the last correction before the
blowoff or the last correction before
the blowoff in which this was really the
last correction before the blowoff here
in 2021 if you recall this is the moment
where Tesla announces that they’ve added
Bitcoin to the balance sheet we shoot
off and then that’s really the end of
the market at that point and one could
technically argue if you look back in
here this is all still just kind of one
cycle happening in here right this is
April of
2013 and then it’s November and December
that it goes on and does this so it kind
of flashes it in the last correction
before the blowoff and so really in 2013
it was the signal of the last correction
before the blowoff in 2017 the last
correction before the blowoff and in
20121 the last correction before the
blowoff so again looking back to 2021 we
can see that price behavior in here back
in January very similar to what we have
seen so far but one of the also
interesting things that I’ve noticed as
well is if we actually go back to
2017 because if we actually zoom out and
look at all of this combined we can see
hey we’ve only flashed this high of a
signal over here with old coins coming
out four times prior to this to reach
this metric level if we look at
2017 it’s actually interesting because
we hit that level here right zooming out
again that’s right here to get this high
right here we are here in 2024 there’s
2021 there’s 2017 and here’s the two
times in 2013 this one right here in
August of
2017 just we’ll just grab that little
one you can see that’s what we’re doing
we’ll zoom out we’ll zoom out that one
you can see that old coins came out
overpowering demand which we were in an
epic rally but zooming in on that a
little bit more this look familiar does
this look familiar to what we’ve
actually been talking about here on the
YouTube channel for a little a while now
this particular correction happening
right here and let me go grab bitcoin’s
chart because that correction is right
here which you could see right here that
big correction that happens before the
final rally takes place that one that
one even closer that one and we’ll go
even closer cuz I mean that one does
that look familiar to something we’ve
been talking about on the channel That
what we’ve been talking about happening
with the market with the altcoin market
the aggressive ABC correction that has
happened in here this exact correction
exact price Behavior has all happened
here in the market with the exact same
correction when we have the value days
destroyed happening in the market here
in 2024 just as we did there in
2017 before the final rally happened and
as we’re having the value days destroyed
right there in that rally just as we did
in 2021 before the final rally and than
Bitcoin doing the same price Behavior as
it did so you have you have Bitcoin
mirroring that same behavior from 2021
and then you have the altcoin market
mirroring that same behavior from 2017
as it was before the final rally now
this isn’t a prediction to say there is
some big giant final rally but it’s
again to kind of show all those things
of being like we’re much further along
than people think we are the market is
not like we are back at the all-time
high or the all-time high as we sit here
right now but it’s acting as if it’s
already done a monster epic rally
already of euphoria where retail goes
wild and this doesn’t flash at the
all-time high this flashes much further
so we talk a lot about this stuff with
the United States stock market the Dow
and the NASDAQ have hit these 4.236
extensions when you look at the breadth
of the actual Market in here of what has
taken place here in this final rally
there’s been a lack of participation
throughout the broader Market is
incredibly Consolidated throughout the
market with the top market caps sucking
in all of the capital and all midcaps
and low caps just getting absolutely
decimated in here with the Russell 2000
not even above its 50% retracement
whereas you have things like the Dow
Jones Industrial Average sitting way up
here I’ve gone through that many times
I’ve shown expansions that have happened
throughout the market for 2013 2017 and
2021s bull runs all those elements are
completely missing and for all of
bitcoin’s big runs they’ve happened
during periods where the FED funds rate
is at zero credit conditions are super
loose the only time through bitcoin’s
history we have anything remotely like
this where the FED funds rates up and
we’re sitting here waiting for a cutting
cycle to happen it happens right here so
at the same time it’s having to be
incredibly cautious that we’re know
we’re not making the same type of
structure here in Bitcoin as we did in
that retracement currently right now
along with the fact that Bitcoin is
literally at it’s 4.236
extension from
2017 to 2018 it’s right there and so
when we look at this and we look at the
signal being flashed by the value days
destroyed in mind you this is the only
one we’re looking at there’s lots of
different onchain signals that are
similar to this exact time point but
when this signal has flashed
historically it is meant one of two
things one the top of Bitcoin is in or
two there’s one rally left or one rally
left and this one back here the very
first time it ever flashed you could say
it was a mix of both it mix it meant the
top was in and then the price crashed
85% but then later that year then went
on to go four times the height and then
it actually marked the true top 7 months
later or you could say it marked the
rally prior right so this thing flashing
has only meant one of two things ever to
get to this height it meant either the
top was in or we were in the last
correction before the final rally
happened this signal has not flashed and
then said hey we still have a year and a
half left because we just did the block
report having when it happened here in
January of 2021 it signaled we had 3
months remaining when it happened here
in August and September of 2017 it meant
we had 3 months remaining now in both
circumstances it actually meant there
was four months remaining for the
altcoin market and if you’ve been
curious of why I’ve been like it doesn’t
really matter to me for Bitcoin because
here’s that moment in August and
September of 2017 versus the altcoin
market and here’s that moment in January
of 2021 for Bitcoin versus the altcoin
market in 2017 Bitcoin got an earlier
lead over the altcoin market in 2021
Bitcoin did not we could see price
action happening very similar to 2021
here for Bitcoin and then we see price
action happening very similar to 2017
for the altcoin market everyone is
welcome to place their bets and make
their own decisions is this the top is
this the rally prior to the top up to
you but I think the point of it is to
really show all the price action
Behavior and the onchain behavior
signals were much further along and I
don’t think that is the general
narrative when it comes to crypto
Twitter or when it comes to YouTube I’m
not here to predict the future by
showing you this but I’m here to show
you here is what the past did these are
the data points that we have to look at
and then everybody is welcome to explain
it away with whatever narrative they
want you know Bitcoin ETFs Grace moving
Bitcoin you know whatever we need
similar to Tesla adding to their balance
sheet at the top how could you be Bears
Tesla’s adding all these companies are
adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet it
was the top right it didn’t really
matter but I find it fascinating and I
wanted to show it to you the last two
times we have flashed something of this
magnitude it did signal we were in the
final correction before the final push
happened for the market and neither
circumstance did it give us a number
that Bitcoin went to afterwards so I’m
not here to say hey it’s going to go to
80 K or it’s going to go to 100 or that
it’s not just going to go like just
barely touch 75 right but anytime this
is flashed it marked the absolute Peak
or the rally prior to the absolute Peak
and for that I think we’re much further
than most people think not to mention
that the altcoin market also hit its
retracement levels at the same place as
it did in 2021 when that happened right
there and one other thing that does
corroborate it and I talked about this
when I actually gave a presentation in
Australia
and I actually recorded that YouTube
video a couple of weeks ago that was
like 45 minutes long where I essentially
gave 70% of the presentation here in a
YouTube video showing the length of the
Cycles in crypto and that the reality is
this is the cycle in crypto yes you get
a little new high in here but it’s just
like what’s happening over there in the
United States stock market where it’s
very isolated it’s very condensed and
the breadth is terrible 90% of the
cryptocurrency market topped right here
only a select basket of assets go on and
set new
there in November as the breadth went to
Absolute trash and that it’s not really
fouryear Cycles in here but if you
actually look how much time has elapsed
in here we’re even showing the same
thing over in here like we just said
four months for the altcoin market right
3 months for Bitcoin it’s about 4 and A2
months there to match the exact amount
of time that the last cycle took and
that the confluences are the same so
food for thought but as for me I find it
incredibly amazing to see all these
confluences happening of bitcoin price
Behavior so far the altcoin market
hitting the same levels yes the signal
has flashed however over the last decade
that did Flash the final correction
before the last rally and to have
similar price Behavior here and then to
see that similar price Behavior showing
up in the altcoin market leaves me with
some intriguing optimism for the months
to come because if it does play out like
2017 if it does play out like 2021 then
the next 3 to four months could be
incredibly exciting we’re still waiting
for that evidence to show up the first
thing of course we’d want to see is to
see the altcoin market find some
supports in here and then work its way
up in here if so we’re right on track
and man 2024 let’s go so I hope you like
that I hope I gave you a little bit of a
picture and the way I’m viewing the
market so when you tune in here you get
an idea of where my thoughts are at it’s
not blind hopium it’s not blind
bearishness I’m always trying to look at
data I’m always trying to take in data
points and then show those to you and
hopefully this gave you something to
kind of think about and Ponder and of
course shout out to the man who was able
to create this for glass node txmc and
on that note we’ll go ahead and start
wrapping this thing up speaking of txmc
we’ve been writing a joint newsletter
that will be released tomorrow I’m
really excited about this one we all
know that developer activity and user
activity has been a function of better
performance in past Cycles but one other
thing that typically happens in Cycles
outside of user activity levels
development levels is sometimes there’s
narratives and sectors that do well so
we’ve gone through all of the hot
sectors of the crypto Market compared
them to see how they’ve been performing
and what assets are actually in those
different sectors and that one will be
released tomorrow so if you’re not
subscribed to the newsletter over here
check out blockchain back. substack
docomo recent one was going in depth
over there on base and all the activity
levels that are picking up there when it
comes to development trading nfts Define
and Etc there’s a clear Trend emerging
over there if you subscribe to the
newsletter of course you get access to
all the past ones along with all the
audio recordings that come with them all
and then of course tomorrow we’ll have
the sector comparisons come out and what
assets are in those sectors so check
this one out over here on blockchain
back. substack do.com of course if you’d
like videos you could check out bcb
backer.com for over 40 videos and 11
hours of content deep diving into the
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docomo be off Wednesday Thursday and
Friday but otherwise I’ll catch you
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