Bitcoin (BTC): Dont Fall For The TRAP!! This Will SURPRISE YOU!! (WATCH ASAP)

Bitcoin (BTC): Dont Fall For The TRAP!! This Will SURPRISE YOU!! (WATCH ASAP)

with the recent ETF news from Hong Kong
and Australia Bitcoin has seen a
short-term rally to
64,000 into today’s video we are going
to be doing a detailed and comprehensive
analysis on both the short-term and the
macro charts let’s go ahead and dive
in okay mwell team welcome back to the
channel thank you for tuning in I hope
everyone’s having a fantastic day today
in today’s video we’re going to be
taking a look look at the shortterm and
the macro price action going into
extensive detail in regards to what has
happened in the last 24 hours how the
price action is developing the upcoming
interest rate data the Hong Kong and
Australia ETFs and so so much more by
the end of today’s video you will have a
detailed and well-rounded understanding
of not only the short-term time frame
price action but the macro price action
as well before we do get into it smash
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via that message let’s dive into a video
guys so as we can see Bitcoin within the
last 24 hours has seen a small little
move toward the upside retesting that
key short-term resistance at
64,000 this was partly due to the fact
that the Hong Kong ETF hype has been
stirring up again coming very very close
to trading and we have just had word of
an Australia ETF Australia is gearing up
to a Bitcoin ETF as a consequence of
gain the US and Hong Kong approvals
looking for an expected approval date by
the end of 2024 so we are starting to
see now more adoption countries more
countries getting evolved as this ETF
phase this hype pushes over now moving
over to the market data we can see
24-hour volume is up 43% sitting at 127
billion over here relatively High
considering the low volume uh
environment we’ve been in for the last
10 or so days 24-hour liquidation
sitting up 60% at 142 million of the 142
million we can see 92 million have come
from long positions and 49 million have
come from short positions moving over to
the broader markets taking a look at the
dxi the dxi is still in a short-term
downtrend we are expecting a
continuation to retest the Confluence
point between the uptrend and the
horizontal yearly level of support again
a correction towards this level would
likely result in a breakdown as we have
seen a respective negative momentum
shift occur on the RSI so we are looking
for a correction an extended correction
as a matter of fact toward this2 to 103
Zone this of course would be relatively
bullish for broader markets and our risk
asset markets if the dxi were to
continue upwards we would only expect a
continuation upwards if our local high
at 105 were able to break if we were to
see a break over this level that is when
we’re expecting a continuation to 107
and maybe even higher at the moment
expecting Corrections broader Market S&P
500 in the same spot as it were
yesterday at
5,140 again provided your remains above
5,000 expecting macro continuations
upwards it was only if 5,000 is lost on
the weekly candle would we expect a
correction towards our 2021 High exactly
the same goes for the Dow Jones sitting
pretty much where it was yesterday we
are expecting macro continuations
upwards if if we do fail to remain above
37,700 on the weekly that is where we
expect a correction lower at the moment
expecting continuations higher with that
being said guys we have a lot to discuss
like we said short-term price action
total market cap altcoin market cap
Bitcoin dominance we’re going to be
taking a look at this chart over here
which goes ahead and tells us how being
overbought on the weekly is not actually
a bad thing in regards to momentum and
we’re going to be taking a look at our
macro price action according to our for
year cycle without further Ado we’ll go
ahead and jump into it but a quick word
from bitette and Bing X before we do I
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listening okay guys let’s go ahead and
get stuck into Bitcoin so the short-term
time frame price action is very similar
to as it has been over the last couple
days and there is something that is
recently developed in the price action I
do want to discuss and there are some
key levels that we do need to pay
attention to moving forward so first and
foremost we are still sitting very much
within our higher time frame range we’re
going to briefly cover the key levels we
need to be paying attention to and what
this range means and then we’ll get into
the Crux of our shortterm updates and
new developments over the last 24 hours
so at the moment again we are still
sitting in our horizontal consolidation
this is a consolidation range as we have
a clearly definable Range High okay and
a clearly definable range low and the
price action is moving sideways but
between this level of resistance and
support perfect the consolidation range
is a massive consolidation range this
has lasted over 2 months in length and
depthwise we’re looking at around 22% so
it is a big consolidation and the bigger
consolidation the bigger the reaction we
generally see Upon A breakout or
breakdown again you think about pressure
building up the more pressure builds up
the bigger the reaction the bigger the
explosion we generally see that same
reaction in markets when it comes of
consolidations now that does mean that
regardless of the directional break we
actually see the reaction is going to be
volatile whether that reaction is a
downward reaction below the range low or
a upward reaction above the Range High
we are expecting a volatile reaction to
occur and whatever that to be would be
quite explosive now at the moment there
is no signs of weakness on this chart
besides again decreasing momentum but
decreasing momentum is not a bad thing
if you have high time frame absor
although exhaustion has been occurring
we are still seeing buyers step in at
support and we have see still seeing
demand actually come in at these key
structural levels which does indicate we
do have buyers actually willing to
purchase at this 60k level and hold the
price above this key trigger point that
does mean again until support is lost we
are expecting continuations up to the
Range High and potentially even through
the Range High as we are in a bullish
consolidation why are we in a bullish
consolidation again number one our range
low is been defended we have bullish
absorption present and we have entered
this consolidation from the bottom side
up indicating the likely directional
continuation is going to be the same
directional continuation we entered into
the consolidation from so there are
slight points to the Bulls on this one
there is not wiping out the probability
of a correction lower but at the moment
again the probabilities lay in favor of
a macro continuation upward still
regardless of what happens on the
short-term time frame the probabilities
are still in favor of that macro
continuation again for that to be
invalidated we would need to see a close
on the uh 4H hour chart underneath our
sell side liquidity a 4-Hour close or
Price sustained underneath our cell side
liquidity would indicate the price has
failed to uh maintain above our key
structural level of significance and the
price will likely continue lower to feel
our low historical resistance range okay
what we would call a gap in the VIP
towards our nearest support at 58k or
52,000 so that is our high time frame
chart analyze really quickly guys if
again we want to simplify even further a
consolidation range is a neutral pattern
therefore you should not be hedged
massively in either direction at the
moment if you are trading shortterm take
your scals okay if we do see a break out
that is when you expect a continuation
upwards if you see a breakdown that is
when you expect continuation downwards
looking at it from that perspective we
can put it 50/50 but if we apply context
and we apply our analysis our technical
analysis based on the data we have the
probability is do slightly shift in
favor of that directional continuation
so let’s move down to the shorter time
frame on the 4-Hour chart there is going
to be two key trend lines we’re watching
the key trend line is going to represent
our downtrend this downtrending
resistance is of course the
representation of the trend of which
Bitcoin has been moving in since the 8th
of April so we have been in now about a
20 22-day downtrend this downtrend is
now also supported by the fact we can
see within that 22-day period momentum
has been falling so we have got
decreasing momentum as the price action
has been falling indicating we have got
a very valid downtrend but more so we
also have clearly identifiable trigger
points in which we could say with
certainty or gain a large degree of
certainty nothing’s 100% certain that if
this level were to break we would see a
shift in strength in comparison to what
recent strength we have seen developed
in the price action okay what does that
mean if the RSI is able to break out of
this downtrend it would indicate for the
first time in 22 days we have seen
momentum flip positive if we have
positive momentum remember momentum is
just one component of strength okay we
are more likely to break resistance than
in the prior attempts where we did not
have positive momentum and that could
result in a continuation through this
resistance so if we were to want to see
a break out of the resistance we first
need to see momentum flip positive until
we see momentum flip positive there is
still a risk we continue back into that
60k region let’s now go down to an even
smaller time frame guys and discuss you
know the last 24 hours of price action
so in the last 24 hours of price action
it has been man it’s been choppy the
last few days have been choppy like we’
said we’re moving into interest rate
data we’ve got the Hong Kong ETFs we’ve
got a lot of these news events and
generally we have these news events
particularly interest rate data we see a
lot of uh volatility and we see a lot of
sporadic price action and that is just a
representation this is just a
representation of General market
indecision right we’re seeing chops up
and down up and down up and down we’re
seeing Market indecision over here but
with this indecision we have retested
and formed a few key levels number one
we have been developing a bullish
Divergence over the last few days again
this is a downtrending price action okay
with a uptrend in momentum this is going
to be a bullish Divergence with bullish
Divergence we did see a rally up to
retest that 64k level and if you do
remember from our yesterday’s video we
said we would need to break above
64,000 to see a continuation up to
retest that downtrend so we have not
actually seen that yet therefore this
could be a local top for the short term
before we see another correction toward
the downside however if we able to break
through this 64k level that is when
you’d be expecting a a continuation to
around 64.9 to 65 ,000 now if we look at
it from a structural perspective we do
also have a potential descending wedge
forming forming over here so we go ahead
and drag this channel upwards we can see
we do have and if I just straighten this
up a little bit better to make it kind
of fit the pattern over here we can see
we do have a potential descending
Channel over here again we have our high
one we have our low two one we have our
low two we have our low three we have
our high two what does that mean we have
two and we have three that is our
fivepoint verification method so we do
have five points of confirmation which
establishes this as a valid pattern now
if we look at the sing Channel
formations we can take measured moves
from our point one to two and apply that
to directional breakouts and our
directional breakout from this pattern
would take us over the downtrend and
would take us into the $67,000
resistance which we know we need to
break to see a continuation upwards into
the 70k region so the descending channel
is at the moment valid that doesn’t mean
we can’t see a swing low again the swing
low is possible as the descending
channel is a downtrend Until It Breaks
so any sort of price action taking us
potential even down or close to the
61,000 would be viable price action and
realistic while the channel remains
intact if we break below the low of this
channel we do expect a correction into
that 60k region enough about that guys
that is the full shortterm let’s jump
over to the higher time frame charts and
before weedo let’s talk about the
interest rate data so again interest
rate data guys is coming out in what
like literally 2 days and it is very
very important we pay attention to this
at the moment the consensus is 5.5 again
the forecast 5.5 and the previous 5.5
from a statistical breakdown is about a
2.5% probability we do see a drop in
interest rates and the rest of it 97.5
probability we see a pause in interest
rates now what the reaction or what the
result of the interest rates don’t
really mean too much if it results in
the pause it’s more what happens during
this press conference that is going to
play a role in developing the the
perceived systematic risk of future
periods in the market and perceived
systematic risk is again the perception
of future risk factors or risk in the
market and people front run future risk
as the market is forseeing or front
seeeing or whatever you hell you want to
use for that kind of terminology so if
we see the Federal Reserve interest rate
conference or press conference and they
come out and Dr pal says you know
everything’s going fine we’re still
moving towards a reduction interest
rates that’s very good if they come out
and say you know what everything’s very
very bad we’re not going to reduce
interest interest rates that’s very bad
and we’re going to see the market
correct but if they come out and say you
know everything’s going okay we would
like it to be going better we’re still
going to reduce interest rates but we
might reduce it at a later date that is
actually still very bullish as long as
there is no indication that they are not
going to reduce interest rates the
perceived systematic risk of a future
period is still going to be reduced and
on the macro scale the price action will
still continue upwards the only impact
that may have would be on the short term
we might see a month or two range period
of more consolidation prior to a
continuation keep that in mind let’s go
over and jump into our next chart so a
lot of people were saying well the top
is in you know we’re overbought um you
know we’re oversold sorry whatever hell
overbought on the RSI momentum’s massive
you know we’re seeing macd crosses blah
blah blah all this stuff and I’d like to
bring this chart to you to show you you
know the data behind what this statement
is and the reality is that 97% or9
96.5 4 and this is the data 96.5 4% of
the time we remained overbought in
regards to RSI momentum on the weekly
chart it has actually marked a
continuation in the uptrend only
3.45% of the Daves remained overbought
on the RSI were actually a downtrend and
three of those Daves Mark the top so
that does tell us well using the
overbought indicator to predict the top
is incredibly unreliable as
statistically it has been incredibly
unreliable to predict the top it is not
a top prediction indicator momentum is
not a top prediction indicator it is
simply a representation of exhaustion
but again if you have exhaustion and the
RSI is dropping provided you have
absorption which we can’t see directly
on a higher time frame of RSI the price
action will continue upwards and
generally when aggressive uptrends we
have absorp absorption that’s is why we
see even though the RSI significantly
pulls back right if we go ahead and and
we see these pullbacks in the RSI we are
seeing at the same time the price
aggressively continues upwards we saw
over here the RSI again in this
overboard ter territory continue upwards
we saw it over here all these periods
over here overboard RSI continuing
upwards again overboard RS price action
sorry continuing upwards so again guys
we have to look at the data and say well
what are the chances you know but that
what it comes down to know really PR the
top and the top is 100% in right now it
all comes back to probabilities what are
the chances based on this technical
reading based on his data that the top
is in and the probabilities are not in
favor for us to say the top is 100% in
right now based on this indicator alone
so a lot of people are saying well this
indicator is saying this and therefore
it must be correct that indicator is a
reflection of what buyers and sellers
are doing an indicator is a derivative
of price action the price candles are a
reflection of the actions of buyers and
sellers if we see consolidation meaning
indecision in buyers and sellers over a
period of time it is natural the
derivative of that price action which
was resulted in consolidation would be
momentum is reducing and we see
exhaustion however that doesn’t
necessarily tell us anything about the
macro expectations or trajectory of the
current Trend it only tells us the red
the the leading data of what is
happening now we can’t always use that
as a future seeing method to predict
what will happen in four or 5 months or
what is happening globally in terms of
macroeconomic drivers that actually push
price action upwards or downwards on a
macro scale so again when we come back
to all this if you didn’t really
understand what I said when you’re
looking at predicting tops and bottoms
you’re not looking at one indicator if
you’re using one indicator again again
you can always cherry pick data from
anywhere you can cherry pick data from
this indicator and that indicator and
this indicator to prove any bias you
have any particular time it is about
collecting a variety of data from a
variety different angles and sources and
applying a contextual analysis and then
looking at well what are the
probabilities that we are at the top
based on all of the data I have
collected not just on one leading
indicator okay moving on guys and
actually you know what I think we’ll
wrap the video up there I think that’s
enough today uh in tomorrow’s video
we’ll get into the macro price action I
hope you had a fantastic time watching
and we’ll catch you guys in tomorrow’s
video cheers

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👉Intro: 0:00-2:03
👉Market data and recent PA: 2:03-3:10
👉DXY, S&P500, DOWJ: 3:10-5:18
👉Exchange promotion: 5:05-6:11
👉2 month consolidation range: 6:11-10:16
👉Short term analysis: 10:16-11:43
👉Recent price action developments: 11:43-14:25
👉Interest rate data: 14:25-16:05
👉Exhaustion is NOT weakness: 16:05-19:52

About me: I am a Full-time Crypto analyst, Day trader and investor from Australia! I specialise in technical analysis and take an unbiased view of the markets, focusing on the data and charts only! So…. come join the Whale family and let’s cover bitcoin and altcoins together