The Altcoin RECKONING Is Here! [What I’m Doing NOW]

The Altcoin RECKONING Is Here! [What I’m Doing NOW]

the market is looking a little bit shaky
right now with many altcoins flirting
with major support levels so in today’s
video I want to do my best to explain
what I think is next for the altcoin
market touch on the current altcoin
Reckoning of sorts that we are currently
seeing with altcoin significantly
underperforming Bitcoin and also let you
know when I think this could potentially
turn around because if you just look at
the charts here and you look at Bitcoin
for example from its local top to the
local bottom it went down 18% comparing
that to Total 3 which is the altcoin
index altcoins went down
27% and many major altcoins are down 30
40 50% which is kind of scary in a way
right because all it takes is a 15 16%
move for Bitcoin to send altcoins down
30 40 50% and we’re not just talking
about rubbish coins here I’m talking
about coins like Rune which are down 44
4% for the month avac a newly launched
coin which was really hyped which was
Wormhole even salana down 25% so the
market right now clearly is volatile I
do believe it’s an extremely difficult
Market to navigate but hopefully in
today’s video I can help you navigate it
and also I have taken some moves with my
crypto portfolio which I want to discuss
at the end of the video I’m probably
alluding to it in the thumbnail of this
video but I’m going to explain exactly
what I mean by that later in the video
video when I talk about my altcoin
positioning so the first thing I want to
do is give a macroeconomic update
because Bitcoin is not operating in
isolation here we’ve seen some very
choppy market conditions from the stock
market off the back of relatively sticky
inflation rates we’ve also seen the
Market’s anticipation of rate Cuts
rapidly change so there is a lot of
macro factors at play right now which
are creating choppy market conditions
and this is evidenced very clearly by
the NASDAQ on the left and Bitcoin on
the right if you look at the price
action of the stock market so tech
stocks on the left and Bitcoin on the
right it’s pretty much almost mirroring
each other we saw Bitcoin put in one
local top then have a Thrust to the
upside before making a lower low we saw
the exact same thing in the stock market
making a local top coming back down
making another top and then we see
stocks making another lower low so
bitcoin’s price action is really similar
to the nasdaq’s price action at the
moment so as much as we love to believe
that you know crypto is completely
decoupled from the macro environment
unfortunately and sometimes fortunately
during Market rallies they are fairly
correlated so if you try to navigate the
murky Waters of crypto you also have to
pay attention to what is happening in
the macro scene so what is happening in
the macro scene will recently which caus
a recent Market reaction over the last
24 hours we saw prediction Market
starting to show a 36% chance of zero
interest rate Cuts in
2024 to put this in perspective says the
kabi letter 4 months ago there was a 3%
chance of no rate Cuts in 2024 the base
case has gone from six rate cuts to One
Rate cut this year there is just a 31%
chance of two or more interest rate Cuts
this year in other words there is a
higher chance of no Cuts than two or
more Cuts in terms of the Market’s
prediction here on Ki so why is this the
case well essentially the recent data
that we did get in terms of both GDP and
inflation alludes to both a slowing
economy at the same time as relatively
sticky inflation the market doesn’t love
this because of course rate Cuts is a
more bullish scenario for equities and
risk assets as a whole now the chances
of rate cuts are obviously diminishing
as you can see in front of you we have
seen the market just spooked a little
bit by this and of of course you do
couple this with a few other factors
like the geopolitical tensions we’ve
recently seen earnings across a variety
of major tech stocks which will continue
to be released over the next few weeks
by the way and it kind of does paint the
picture for why we are currently in a
choppy period and there is of course
this old Trope going around which is
sell in may go away I wanted to provide
a little bit more color to this
statement in today’s video as I’m seeing
a lot of other creators talking about it
so if we do look at bitcoin’s price
performance in May it’s true the last
three Mays have been significantly red
and overall it’s one of the slightly
weaker months in terms of crypto
performance it’s not the worst month the
worst months are definitely August you
can see is quite a weak month you can
also see that September is quite a weak
month May is in the bottom half of
crypto months but one thing interesting
to point out here is that election years
typically for equities have actually
been very strong performing years for
the month of May and I’m not just
talking about May itself here I’m
talking about the period of May to
October because sell in may go away
refers to the time period where stocks
have typically underperformed during the
middle month of the year compared to the
the months like November December
January February which of course a
really strong performance for crypto
historically but in election years for
the stock market we’ve actually seen the
middle part of the Year performing quite
strongly now due to the limited sample
on this I wouldn’t be so quick to draw
any actionable conclusions from it it’s
just something to keep in mind when you
do see creators talking about sell in
may go away to be aware of that election
years are actually much stronger than
your typical May to October period for
the stock market and yes the stock
market is relevant at the moment as you
can see in front of you just due to the
correlation we’re currently seeing now
let’s talk about what happened in April
for crypto to try and paint a picture
for what could potentially happen next
in the crypto market then I’m going to
get into my Bitcoin chart talk about the
key levels that I’m watching and what
I’m actually doing to currently position
myself in the altcoin market right now
so I love this tweet from Victor which
summarizes some of the narratives in mid
April we had a massive Market dump with
liquidation Cascades for 2 days in a row
with 800 million in Long liquidations
each day seeing Bitcoin go from 71k to6
63k in just a matter of days we saw
significant dispersion and this is what
I’m alluding to here in the title and
the thumbnail of the video between
Bitcoin and altcoin since many of them
had minus 50% draw Downs versus 14% for
BTC I’m going to touch on this in just a
couple minutes because it’s something
you need to be really careful of as an
altcoin investor the last few weeks have
been a reminder just as quickly as
altcoins can pump and outperform they
can also just just quickly underperform
when the script actually flips in terms
of Bitcoin price performance really
important that you watch that segment
later cuz I’m going to show you how you
can avoid this trap we also saw the
second flush on April 13th happen
because of the geopolitical tensions
around half of $2 billion altcoin open
interest was evaporated in 2 days so
these were just some of the events
recently which have led to a slightly
choppy market and I actually did a tweet
which I think is still fairly relevant
about a week ago in the midst of all of
this where I said look for those who
missed the dip on that initial Wick down
to the 60k level it’s a good lesson in
buying fear and taking advantage of fear
but I don’t feel like there’s a rush to
buy now because the next few weeks are
likely to remain choppy they have indeed
remained choppy macro isn’t fully
resolved as I alluded to before there is
still question marks about um the whole
interest rate cuts and the earnings and
a lot of other macroeconomic uh factors
which are currently impacting the market
and finally it will take a moment to
regain retail’s trust after another
brutal ShakeOut this is something I
don’t see a lot of people touching on
but it’s real when you do see these
major shakeouts in the market it does
hit the confidence especially of
retailer who were typically
overleveraged and over risked into these
major flush outs and what happens is
those people get wrecked they
tentatively crawl back to the market in
a matter of you know weeks or months
after the fact when the market starts
pumping but usually there’s this interim
period which I believe we’re currently
in where retail is just a little bit
hesitant because they’ve just been burnt
and they don’t want to go touch the
scorching iron again they they want to
just sit back see what happens and relax
so there’s probably not that urgency
from retail to long now of course if you
want to take the converse argument this
can actually lead to these massive
squeezes to the upside because what
happens is when the market re regains
confidence retail actually piles in and
a lot of people are sideline which leads
to this additional fomo in the market so
there definitely is that counter effect
but in the interim periods you do tend
to see these choppy market conditions
after these major flush outs and that’s
exactly why I said A week ago that there
wasn’t a rush to buy I’ll give you my
current update um on how I’m currently
viewing buying in the altcoin market in
just a minute when we also talk about
the altcoin Reckoning uh Bitcoin
dominance Etc another major factor which
is affecting the market at the moment
are the ETF flows so they have started
to significantly stall we’ve seen a
couple days in a row now tick into the
negative territory of course one of the
strongest narratives propelling
bitcoin’s Rally from the 30k region all
the way up to the 70k region was the
Bitcoin ETF and when flows were more
positive than expected so aka the
Boomers were gravitating towards this
ETF people got really excited about that
and that was one of the strongest
catalysts in the market I do now think
that that catalyst is exhausted The
Narrative is a bit exhausted we’re not
just seeing that in terms of Mind share
and hype around the ETFs but also in
terms of the concrete data that we are
getting in the way of these ETF fund
flows just starting to tick into the red
there is a silver lining however in the
midst of the red outflows in the midst
of some dubious macroeconomic data we
have seen Bitcoin actually still hold
majorly Above This 60k level and the
response around 60k has been super
strong so I’ll actually chart this and
give you my opinion on this setup in
just a minute and one of the things that
I’m going to point out is of course the
really strong reaction around the 60k
level which is obviously good
considering we now have had one of the
biggest catalysts in crypto become in at
least in the short term what some would
considered to be a headwind so what do I
think of the current market and what am
I doing firstly let’s chart Bitcoin
because a lot of the answer does lie in
Bitcoin right now Bitcoin is one of the
most important things to keep your eye
on because it really is the driver of
the market we are seeing these altcoins
operate in terms of their price action
on an extended risk beta versus bitcoin
price action which they always have but
we have seen periods of our performance
right now I think ult are really just
waiting for a decisive move from Bitcoin
so the the way I think about Bitcoin
right now from a PA perspective is
really simple you have this range low on
the 4H hourly and also the daily
starting to form at the 60k level you
have your Range High at the 72k level
which was of course the local top and
then you have your mid-range level at
the 67k Zone which is acting as an
intermediate range support/resistance
Zone which we actually bounced off
multiple times and that this has
resulted in the lower high actually
setting in for Bitcoin here at the 67k
region so pretty pretty much the major
levels are range extremities these are
the levels that are most interested in
trading off from a trading perspective
so anytime Bitcoin gets down to 60k
until proven wrong this is a decent in
my opinion risk reward zone to
accumulate BTC alt if their pairs look
strong versus Bitcoin which we’ll touch
on in just a second and any thrust up to
the 72k region until proven wrong this
would probably be a tp/ short zone I’m
not a big fan of shorting during a
crypto bull market which I believe we
are in a macro crypto bull market but in
terms of positioning taking profits in
this zone is never a bad idea until the
range obviously is invalidated
eventually it will be but until then I’m
trading Within These mental constraints
until some of the macro side of things
uh is resolved either to the positive or
the negative side and of course you do
have this mid-range level at 67 which
you have to be aware of a Thrust up here
now and another rejection I think would
be quite bearish Bitcoin really does
need to reclaim the 67k level to have a
chance of pushing up to 70 obviously
because I’m net long I would prefer this
move but I’m also a realist and I accept
that the price action right now is
actually starting to look a little bit
exhausted and for that reason I do think
from a pure probabilistic perspective
going back down to this area here is
likely in my opinion I also want to
reference this chart that doc posted by
the way Doc’s an amazing Trader who also
contributes to my private Discord he’s
had some amazing uh setups and calls
over the past few weeks and months but
he posted this chart which I find really
interesting and really summarizes how
I’m viewing the market right now you
know I’ve said in recent times that I
think we’re going to get a choppy few
weeks right well doc says here 60k is
consensus support this is what CT thinks
will happen if it’s a lost so a lot of
people are saying look if we lose 60
we’re going straight down to 53 a close
below is pretty much lights out for
Bitcoin
and then versus what’s much more likely
if we lose 60 and this is a sideways
chop we break below 60 downward momentum
eventually gets lost without the bids
getting filled at the 53k zone and then
we squeeze back to the upside this is
price action that is much more common in
the market where the market never really
gives you what you want if we break 60
it’s unlikely that people’s bids are
going to be filled at that next support
level at 53 it’s more likely that it
tries to wreck both bulls and bears
because shorters end up getting squeezed
and Bulls end up never getting their
preferred entry and the bids end up
going unfilled and then of course the
dip never comes or the dip doesn’t go
deep enough and everyone that’s
sidelined ends up foing fooing in higher
and then Bitcoin goes to 70 75k I don’t
know if this will exactly happen it is
just one scenario but it pretty much
does line up with my thinking of the
market right now that we could see this
sideways chop it’s going to freak people
out when we start to break down if we
start to break down below 60 but
eventually we’re going to see that
squeeze to the upside and that will end
up in hindsight being a buying
opportunity so I’m going to ask you a
question and I really want you to answer
this question in your head if Bitcoin
pulls back to 59k now now keep in mind
we’re sitting around 64k at the time of
this video and ults let’s say go down 20
to 30% are you going to be panicking
just put yourself in that scenario you
wake up in the morning Bitcoin is now
59k ts are down 20 to 30% because TS
have been on a higher risk beta to
bitcoin we’ve seen this in recent times
I pointed it out before ult have been
drawing down a lot more when Bitcoin
crashes and pumping a lot more when
Bitcoin pumps if you are really scared
in that scenario and if you genuinely
think you would be worried in that
situation you’re probably Overexposed to
the market now I actually asked myself
this question a couple weeks ago and
I’ve been tweeting about it you can see
this tweets on April
10th I ran through this scenario in my
head and I came to the conclusion that I
would be a bit worried with a 30% draw
down in altcoins and when I came to that
conclusion I realized I was actually a
little bit
Overexposed so because of that I have
been taking some profits off the table
on these major pumps I had a feeling we
would get that draw down I did warn you
about that a couple weeks ago before we
ended up actually wicking down and
testing 59 so it was pretty spot on with
my thinking but once we actually saw
that thrust back to 66 I took profits
again went back down to 63 today we
pumped back to 65 I took some profits
again I’m just trying to be a little bit
cautious here to hedge against that
scenario now I don’t know if Bitcoin is
going to go down to 58 I don’t know if
it’ll go to 55 I don’t know if altcoins
Will necessarily crash it could do the
opposite it could pump but I’m just
trying to be prepared for that scenario
because the worst thing is going into
the market unprepared for an eventuality
which isn’t unlikely it’s not unlikely
that Bitcoin goes down and test 60 again
in fact it’s a logical stepping point if
you do look at the charts here and we
can clearly identify that is the range
low region so if you are worried at the
thought of this dip what I would do is I
would make sure you’re not Overexposed
to the market and if you are exposed I
would make sure your portfolio is
constructed in such a way that you’re in
the strength you’re in the right coins
and you’re not in trash
now is not the time to be sitting in
trash it’s actually quite a difficult
period to navigate from a shorter term
perspective longer term it does become
simpler my strategy is to buy quality
alt coins from strong narratives that I
believe in and where I have a strong
thesis developed on Extreme red days
generally speaking I can do that and
sleep at night but in terms of
navigating portfolio Management in the
short term it does become a slightly
difficult period to navigate I’m going
to give you a little bit of alpha that I
shared in my Discord this is my private
Community where I give quick updates to
everyone that’s in there I said remember
there’s no need to force a trade if
there isn’t an obvious one this is the
easiest way to get wrecked in the market
a weak thesis with low conviction is
unlikely to hold up in a choppy market
in terms of your psychological ability
to hold that Point’s really important by
the way so let’s say Bitcoin does go to
59 some altcoins go down 20 30%
if you don’t have a strong underlying
thesis conviction in why you’re holding
that altcoin it’s probably going to be
pretty hard for you to Diamond hand that
through a time of adversity if you don’t
even really understand it so that’s why
I said before just make sure you’re in
the Queens you actually understand and
have a strong thesis behind its
narrative otherwise it’s going to be
really hard for you to not only hold
through times of adversity but actually
accumulate more which is theoretically
what you should be doing of course this
is not Financial advice during these
Major Market Corrections so right now my
focuses are on scalping coins that are
obeying Market structure in the Discord
we took a short position on H bar which
made us 150% also a long on ton which
made us 90% which was great so these are
the kind of scalps that I’m executing at
the moment when the Market’s boring just
for a bit of adrenaline but also just to
keep some stable coins rotating
accumulating strong coins on High time
frame support these opportunities are
sparing in I’ll get into a couple in
just a second here but they do present
and the other thing I’m doing which is
super important is researching and
digging into new ecosystems so this is
actually a time where let’s say we do
see toppic conditions for the next few
weeks this is actually great it’s a gift
in the peak of the bull run it becomes
very hard to stay focused in the market
because of the Euphoria because of the
dopamine because of the fomo in lulls in
more boring periods and chubby periods
this gives you an opportunity to catch
up on stuff and sharpen your tools so
I’ve been researching the ton ecosystem
I didn’t really understand runes in atha
properly but they are Major Market Trend
so I was understanding them a little bit
better come to some conclusions there
and the other thing I was doing is
getting into nfts and learning more
about nfts one thing I actually talked
about in my Discord was how I was buying
apes and Pudgies um this was on the 24th
of April just 2 days ago and if you look
at the price of a some Pudgies today
apes are actually up 50% this week 26%
today they went from 11 e to 17 e so I
made a think of five E profit on one of
my Apes but I didn’t have time to
accumulate enough um I really wanted to
accumulate more and if they do end up
going back down again I am going to buy
a few more and I’ll do a video on why
I’m actually doing that same as pudgy
same as some of these other ethereum
major collections that is a story for
another day but this is just another
example of you know something that I
called in the Discord and I had success
trading that obviously with nfts there
is a barrier to entry though so
depending on you know the capital that
you’re trading with you might have to go
down the risk curve a little bit so
basically the tldr there is that boring
sideways periods in the market are the
best time to hone your skills in the
market so the reason I did end up taking
some profits to summarize this tangent
here is essentially I felt like I was
Overexposed because I accepted that if
the market does go down to 59 I’d be a
little annoyed about that and you really
shouldn’t have any emotion in this
market if you do it’s probably because
your risk management isn’t slightly
tweaked so I do enjoy playing these
thought experiments to help myself
handle my risk parameters a little bit
better so when the market does come down
when we do get these major dips and even
now right what should you be doing
should you be buying should you be
selling here’s the
thing when I talk about protecting
positions
I’m talking about the short term if
you’re Overexposed that’s something you
definitely have to take into
consideration if you have adequate
stable coin waiting set
aside the lower we go the better risk
reward entries you’re going to get for
the rest of this bull run and for that
reason I don’t think scaling into
quality alts even now if you want
exposure to them and maybe they’ll drop
a little bit it’s not a terrible idea as
long as you’re measured with how you DCA
into the market but right now I believe
it’s not the time to just DCA into any
random old crap you really have to be
selective right now and there are a few
outliers if you look at the strength
which is showing signs that they’re
stronger than the rest of the market
finnally a lot of these strong coins are
actually the meme coins I did a video
yesterday I’ll link it in the
description below about why I think meme
coins are here to stay this cycle and
some of my top picks for meme coins
right now and my strategy for
accumulating them but I recommend
watching that I put this video out and
afterwards a lot of the memes actually
outperformed if you look over the last
24 hours a lot of coins are down 5 10
15% but mem coins are actually up with
had a nice rally Etc so narrative wise
that video was spot on another thing you
can do yourself is going to V people do
ask me miles how do I access V for your
convenience I’ll leave a link in the
description below to Vell data if you
don’t use it it’s one of the best
websites in crypto if you go into the
top gainers section or if you saw it by
large mid or small cap so you can see
what the strongest all coins are so you
can see Bon’s performing well ATA is
performing well high is performing well
if you go on large cap so to cut out
some of those outliers you can see harar
you don’t have to look into it though
because the reason har bar pumped is
because of this fake news and then we
actually shorted in the Discord and it
went down again Nea protocol performing
very well obviously it has ties to AI
shib B&B STX link is rwa um
related stx’s Bitcoin coin beta related
around the harving so there are reasons
why some of these are outperforming and
that’s definitely a tip for you to look
into the coins with the relative
strength other narratives which I think
could be strong performers in the midst
of what’s a choppy Market over the
coming weeks are potentially narratives
like AI I think rwa is here to stay AI
as well though because you’ve got the
Nvidia earnings you’ve got chat gbt 5
being released soon it has this real
life news flow and Catalyst in the
market which trigger sector our
performance and that’s what you’re
looking for at the moment now I did say
earlier in the video stick around for
something and what I was alluding to is
this strategy that I’m using in terms of
looking at altcoin versus BTC so on the
thumbnail SL tile of this video I’m I’m
alluding to altcoin underperformance
versus
Bitcoin you should only be buying
altcoins right now or even considering
buying all coins right now which are in
uptrends or major support levels versus
bit coin I’m going to Fally show you
example of altcoins which are weak and
setups you should be avoiding filecoin
versus Bitcoin looking extremely weak
making lower lows on The Daily versus
Bitcoin kadano looking very weak versus
Bitcoin when you see these setups where
coins are making lower lows these are
generally coins to avoid what you want
to look for is a confirmed reversal so
on kadano here you want to look for this
Sr flip
a Thrust of this major level in this
case the8 Zone and then a push to the
upside and it’s on this retest here that
you can look to
position your goal as an investor in the
market is to beat Bitcoin you’re not
just trading to make dollars you’re also
trading to out to make more Bitcoin but
outperform Bitcoin because if you’re not
outperforming Bitcoin what are you doing
in the altcoin market you shouldn’t be
in alts at all otherwise you could just
buy a Bitcoin huddle and get some sleep
at night and not have to worry about any
of this stuff right so whenever I
approach a trade I always want to make
sure I’m actually going to beat Bitcoin
so would I buy Ada right now no would I
buy filecoin right now no because they
look trash versus Bitcoin conversely and
I’m just giving random examples here
there are more Phantom is in an uptrend
versus
Bitcoin the other thing I mentioned
before is buying support link
interestingly is at support versus
Bitcoin and it has shown a bounce at
this level so it’s these kind of setups
and you can go through every alt what I
recommend on trading view is make a
watch list of altcoin pairs versus
Bitcoin and go through and work out what
coins are actually looking good versus
Bitcoin or at least use it as a
reference point if you are going to buy
a coin compare it to bitcoin right
because as I said before a lot of alter
getting smashed when Bitcoin moves
they’re operating on this higher risk
frequency so you really got to make sure
you’re getting into an Al with relative
strength dot looks weak versus Bitcoin
Gala it looks okay it has had a rebound
um it actually isn’t an uptrend it made
a higher low near I think it’s looking
good versus Bitcoin very good this is
this is a perfect example of a very
bullish Trend so you see this trend here
it has a pump it consolidates it has a
pump it consolidates it has a pump and
it keeps making higher highs and higher
lows structure like this this step
ladder type Market structure is
generally really positive when we’re
looking at not only USD price
performance but also the Bitcoin
comparison as well so just to summarize
my advice here if you’re
Overexposed make sure you’re
prepared and make sure you have enough
stable coins on the side and that’s why
on pumps I always recommend taking some
profits so you can actually capitalize
if we do end up going back down to that
60k region because it is on the cards
and I’m not just going to lie to you and
say oh no no it’s going to be up only
Market always doesn’t give you exactly
what you want similarly if you do want
that major correction to 53 it’s
probably not going to give you that
either it tends to give the market what
it doesn’t want and it’ll do its best to
shake you out if you are adequately
exposed to stable coins and you’re
comfortable in your risk waiting you can
start averaging into the market but only
do it with coins that are showing
strength against Bitcoin and also
strength in the market versus other o
coin sectors so make sure it’s from a
strong narrative with strong Catalyst
make sure you believe and understand the
thesis behind it and make sure it’s
showing relative strength so the thesis
is actually reflected in the price
action but most importantly make sure
you have conviction in those coins right
and that’s pretty much all I would like
to summarize in terms of the altcoin
market today hopefully there was some
value in here which can help you
navigate the next few weeks I’m not
Ultra bearish I’m just cautious I mean
I’m bullish from a more macro
perspective I just don’t want people
getting rinsed before the fund even
begins cuz this is the thing the market
will try and do its best to chop you out
you’ve really got to survive these
periods of uncertainty of lulls of
apathy because these other periods that
actually Harden you and can often times
be the periods where you set yourself up
for the biggest gains in the market so
don’t just treat it as a period to
dismiss the market treat it as a period
of growth as well I’ll see you in the
next one have a lovely rest of your day
peace out

In this video, I discuss what happens next with the altcoin market, touch on the altcoin reckoning that we are currently seeing, and when the crypto market could potentially rebound – with Bitcoin currently chopping sideways.

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Topics discussed:
-Bitcoin
-Bitcoin price
-Bitcoin update
-Bitcoin ETF inflows
-Crypto market update
-Macroeconomic data + inflation
-Altcoins to buy now
-Meme coins outperforming
-ALT/BTC Pairs + seeking reversals

Disclaimer: The “Miles Deutscher” YouTube channel is a social podcast for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed by the host should not be construed as financial advice! Listeners are encouraged to do their own research.

#crypto #altcoins #bitcoin
___________________________________________________________________________
0:00 – Intro
0:29 – Bitcoin & Crypto Market Update
2:51 – Macro Update
5:56 – April In Review + Bitcoin ETF Inflows
11:03 – Bitcoin Technical Analysis + 60K Level
15:09 – Being Overexposed To The Market
21:55 – Scaling Into Altcoins
24:39 – ALT/BTC Pairs + Seeking Reversals
27:26 – Summary + Outro