Recession Probability, YEN WEAK, SILVER Cycle, HUI 8X, Oil SHALE, GOLD and SILVER, Value STOCKS

Recession Probability, YEN WEAK, SILVER Cycle, HUI 8X, Oil SHALE, GOLD and SILVER, Value STOCKS

hey everyone hope you’re having a good
day my name’s Andy my channel is finding
value today we’re going to go over
Twitter social media see what people are
sharing I’ll interject my financial
opinions as we go generally related to
wealth building Commodities Andor
Financial topics is what we cover and
what I like to make my opinions on so
let’s dive in there let’s see what’s
going on uh you can follow me at funding
finance and you can join our community
if you’d like at finding value.com
where I dive deeper into these sectors
individual companies and sectors out
there I also share what I’m doing with
my portfolio what I’m adding and
whatnot starting with Isabel net uh
recession the probability of a US
recession in 12 months calculated from
the yield curve stands at
55.1% in
April so we’ve got the probability of
recession calculated based off the yield
curve and there we are and you can see
the probabilities as they go up and down
over time and you can see that some of
these uh cycle up and down over time
based off of the yield curve but where
we are today uh pretty high percent of
probability in relationship to history
we had that also in the early
80s again in the mid 70s and early’
7s in terms of percent probability of
recession off the yield curve coming
down investment wisdom John
Templeton the only way to avoid mistakes
is not to invest which is the biggest
mistake of
all so in order to avoid smaller
mistakes
um not investing at
all which is the biggest mistake fix the
FED hyperinflation happen slowly at
first then all at once Japan has been
begging the US to allow them to
intervene more and sell more United
States treasuries the US is refusing
because it knows the consequences for
our markets one60 is the proverbial Line
in the Sand but it may already be too
late and that’s the Japanese Yen and
that’s why perhaps we’re seeing the
dollar continue to go up is because we
are comparing it against toilet paper
the Japanese yen is one of those
currencies that we are comparing
against so we are comparing it against
weaker currencies much weaker than ours
and that’s one of the reasons that the
dollar remains so
strong here’s the hedgeless forcemen
potential proxy here and what we’re
looking at
is this is let me see if I can shrink
this down a little bit theyve got such a
big chart here it’s a silver company and
we’ve had big move up in 2016
consolidation for about four years big
move up in 2020 we’ve got a
consolidation for about four years and
here we are moving higher again and
maybe this is
a precursor to a much bigger move you
can see he’s got these circles here
but they are are fractals kind of a a
move off the bottom consolidation and
then a big large move higher you can
maybe even run a off the tops here and
maybe we’re going to come way up here
where we we have a trend line going
across here but that’s a possibility for
this is a Silver Company I can’t read
the name of it defiant silver and we
could get a big move there makes sense
from this 40 year cycle that he’s got
there game of Trades this is a very
concerning chart bonds have broken down
from a 40 plus year uptrend while a
balance is very likely based on
technicals and potential Fed rate Cuts
high levels of debt and high inflation
are going to lead to a much deeper
downside this decade so he’s in the
higher for longer
Camp he’s got a potential move higher
where we see a Slowdown in the market uh
people move into bonds
and then we see another inflationary
move where bond prices go lower again
and in and rates go up is what he is
projecting uh what if the Huey is an 8X
from here where we go back up to the top
of this uh trend line here that very
well could and I think that’s probably
highly likely highly likely Tracy says
this may blow some mind
but Norway’s oil demand hasn’t crashed
despite record EV market share the fact
that a record 90% share of all new car
sales in Norway our electric has failed
to make any impact on the country’s oil
demand indicating that hopes of rising
EV uptake making an immediate dent in
global oil demand are
unrealistic Road fuel demand in Norway
has remained relatively stable even with
soaring EV adoption raising questions
about whether EVS really have a material
impact on diesel and gasoline sales rad
energy said last year the lack of a
noticeable dent in oil demand in a
country where EVS are 90% of all new car
sales is a cautionary tail for those
predicting an immediate drop in oil
demand due to Rising EV sales according
to UBS so that’s real interesting there
guys
they have 90% of new car sales and they
cannot make a dent in the country’s oil
demand why are we even mandating these
things if they don’t
actually if they don’t have the intended
outcome is what I’ll
say scrolling down katusa research a
kind of race is going on despite Gold’s
breakout and copper hovering at all-time
highs copper mining stocks are
outperforming gold mining stocks so
copper miners versus gold miners and
copper miners at least in the short term
have been
outperforming since April of
2023 Patrick says we have a macro
Paradigm Shift unfolding before our eyes
something that very few of us have ever
seen before so be ready so this is
personal consumption expenditures up up
up up up
up and then looking down at the rate of
change that he has here he says it’s
been going up uh for since 1959 but its
7-year rate of change is re
accelerating like in like it did in the
1960s and 1970s so the 60s and70s had a
pretty big personal consumption
expenditures of rate of change that rate
of change changed in
1980 came all the way back down to a
bottom in 2020 we re recently broke out
of a downtrend line on rate of change
and we’ve been working our way higher
much like the 1960s and70s
just an
FYI uh the yen is crashing just blew
through 157 against the dollar why in
part because us yields have been
climbing due to reaccelerating
inflation the FED embarked on the
fastest hiking cycle in history and it
hasn’t worked they are now desperate to
somehow just ify cutting rates in a
textbook the boj would simply raise
rates here to protect the collapsing Yen
however Japan can’t really afford to
hike rates meaningfully with a 265 per
debt to GDP ratio if they did decide to
hike anyway it would likely send us
yields even higher Japanese
institutional investors are the largest
foreign holders of us treasuries who
would then be selling to reinvest back
in Japan it’s a terrible spot the bank
of Japan is currently sitting on their
hands and watching the Yen
collapse that’s interesting
there um Moder so this is investment
wisdom Peter Lynch Moder fast Growers 20
to 25% in non-growth Industries are
ideal investments in his
opinion we’ve got Matt Miller here he
says I just look just look at the Shale
production charts like this from time to
time and think this is going to be so
bad and no one outside energy
understands it so what what we’re
looking at here is they continue to
bring on all of these different areas
this is
bye and by quarter um all these
different we’ll call it colors are by
quarter this is the daily oil production
for was this this America or Shale let
me see here Shale just Shale production
I think you can see that that we were
growing kind of slow and you can see
slow decline rates all in the beginning
but look at how fast these decline over
time as we we continue to go up uh
that’s crazy how fast the decline rates
are so this doesn’t look all that great
guys if we have any sort of stumble here
we’re going to see quite a bit lower
production uh in terms of shale oil if
we don’t continue to drill as fast and
as uh viciously I’ll call
it um in in the Shale
area Shanghai Silver versus kic silver
we’re still at 30 bucks over $30 in
China and we’re at 2768 in America the
medals continue to move from the West to
the
east Bill gross says avoid tech stocks
and stick to value stocks says Bon King
Bill gross which is basically what we’re
doing we’re we’re in the value stocks
bill says stick to value stocks avoid
Tech as us yields
SAR um we had on there some data in the
1970s we saw technology stocks which are
very sensitive to interest rates because
their value is dependent on growth the
more you’re dependent on growth in the
future the more you’re impacted by
higher interest rates so in the 1970s
the data Bears out that technology
stocks were some of the worst performing
assets because of yields going up and
inflation so money would rotate from
technology into precious metals
Commodities those are the two biggest
winners in a highly inflationary
environment with increasing yields uh so
bill is completely right value stocks
outperform and Tech generally
underperforms given the market
conditions that he is
describing uh silver Institute survey in
2024 projecting the second largest
worldwide shortage of silver in more
than two decades well that that sounds
pretty pretty solid there for
silver um investment wisdom Warren
Buffett we don’t get paid for activity
just for being right so they get paid
for being right not about all of the
crap that goes into um being right so
it’s not about activity it’s about
actually being
right uh here’s some high value
Financial advice from Morgan howel spend
less save more wait longer lower your
expectations is what
his his opinions
are coming down to Tavi we got now is
now is not the time to stand in the way
of this long- awaited historical
breakout in my view with gold prices at
these levels mining companies are likely
to become true cash flow machines new
Mon’s earnings released today was just a
glimpse of what’s to come and this is
mining stocks to gold ratio and we are
about to break to the upside huge upside
potential in the mining stocks let me
get this there we
go coming on back
down of course I went and hit the wrong
button
there coming back down to where we are
uh Global oil inventories are at their
fiveyear seasonal lows per Morgan stand
so total oil inventories are at the
5year lows here just barely hanging on
in terms of inventory um we’ve had oil
prices much higher than where we’ve been
given where our inventory levels are at
today um it doesn’t mean that it right
now we’re about fairly valued but a lot
of people don’t consider the Strategic
petroleum reserves around the world as
inventory uh so I’m a little confused on
how people view that
but um to me I would view that as
inventory and if the inventory of all
those sprs are drained you know by 50%
or something um I would be very much
worried that um oil prices could easily
head higher uh if commercial inventories
had any
lower uh Jeff Jeff says this is going to
breed resentment picture a 35-year-old
couple second baby just born can’t keep
waiting for interest rates to decline
they’re in a
2,843 per month mortgage payment total
total cost payment will call for the
house next door neighbor also 35 also
two kids same household income house
looks just like theirs in for
$1,400 uh so home buyer housing payments
are up 12.6% year-over-year mortgage
payment on a four-week rolling average
of the median asking price uh of where
we are at today but that also is a
signal of how short we are in the
market in terms of homes if the homes
were flooding the market we would see
prices are lower uh I do know that the
mortgage payments are a huge function of
interest rates I don’t think interest
rates are necessarily going to go down
in the short term uh and be sustained
lower uh we could get a pullback it’s
anything’s possible in the short term
but uh the momentum is to the upside so
I don’t think there’s going to be too
much relief for home buyers in their
mortgage payments uh yet not yet but if
we do get a recession we do get a
Slowdown there is a possibility that
rates could could pull back there is
that
possibility investment wisdom it says
the true the true cont contrarian waits
for things to cool down and buys stocks
that no cares
about that’s exactly what I do and I’ve
just put uh ratios in it so you can
basically use data to objectively say
it’s cheap or not so if something’s
cheap you’re an out of favor market
conditions you buy stocks that nobody
cares about uh that’s basically what you
want to do to become
successful the hard part is people are
going to tell you it’s a bad investment
people are you’re not in the
so you can’t really just blend in you’re
going to stick out like a sore thumb and
you’re kind of putting yourself out
there and probably will get
ridiculed because you’re not in with the
herd the herd doesn’t make nearly as
much money they’re probably all over in
technology stocks right now like Nvidia
and and all those types of companies so
in order to be successful you basically
have to go
against all of the herd
so that’s what I’ve got for today guys
give me a thumb up for the content
subscribe to the channel uh subscribe to
the website if you’d like we do have a
question and answer session going on
right now so Jump On In if you want to
uh join um you can join the there’s a
zoom meeting link uh on the website that
you can click to join the meeting all
right guys that’s all I’ve got for today
uh we’ll catch you later this is finding
value

#gold #silver #platinum #investing #stockmarket #commodities #twitter
#uranium #oil #naturalgas

Recession Probability, YEN WEAK, SILVER Cycle, HUI 8X, Oil SHALE, GOLD and SILVER, Value STOCKS

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