Are we in WWIII? Investing and speculating opportunities. AIA 4.27.24

Are we in WWIII? Investing and speculating opportunities. AIA 4.27.24

hey guys John paulmy here actionable
intelligence today is Saturday April
27th and this is the weekly market
update the disclaimer anything that you
hear or see on this podcast or video is
not to be taken as investment
advice this is for informational
purposes only I am not a registered
financial adviser I cannot give you
individual Financial advice please do
your own due diligence it’s your money
it’s your
responsibility okay let’s get
started okay we got a couple slides here
from Jesse Felder one of the people that
I follow on X puts out a lot of good
stuff um commodity bull market intact uh
commodity prices are moving higher
driven by the following this is
according to this uh article by Apollo
Academy which I’ll put a link to in the
show notes if you want to review it says
uh re accelerating us growth um well I
would say in certain sectors right
around manufacturing is turning around
now after almost two years in recession
geopolitical uncertainty yes uh we’ll
talk about that later in the end of the
near the end of the video when I
reiterate my view that we are in already
World War II uh that’s a provocative
statement but I don’t think people when
you say that they don’t really
understand they they their reference
point is is World War I and World War II
uh this is going to be totally different
um segmentation of global trade which I
think goes back to geopolitical si uh
situations and uh strong AI demand for
energy I would add also to that uh and
we’re going to show a chart later on
about energy growth the Emerging Markets
is where the real growth is everybody
yes AI demand and data center demand in
the US will cause additional growth for
electricity demand but if you look at
the world as a whole you know people in
India getting air conditioners uh that
type of thing is really what’s going to
drive the the energy demand the the as
we’ve talked about many times the
Fertile Crescent the new Fertile
Crescent if you will from Istanbul to
Jakarta those 4 billion people that are
now entering their S curve as they enter
the uh middle
class as GDP in those countries get to
$3,000 per capita you start entering uh
a large jump in commodity and resource
consumption so I haven’t read this
article but I just wanted to throw this
up there I will uh put this in the show
notes for your
perusal so here is a chart from or a
tweet from Bob Elliott us oil and gas
stocks are historically cheap to the
broader market we’ve pointed this out
before we like to show these charts
again we don’t want to get into
confirmation bias but this is one of the
thesis that we have is that the demand
for energy is insatiable it will
continue to be insatiable mostly driven
by the emerging
markets and the investment into new
energy has been lacking for at least a
decade I.E we’re going to uh it’s an
opportunity and when the stocks are
historically cheap relative to the
broader Market this is an opportunity
so it’s good to remind ourselves of
where we are we’re not even anywhere
near the end of the mark bull market
that I think that we’ve been in I mean
the portfolio is doing very
well and I think we’ll continue to do
well and we’re really focused a lot on
energy and other
resources I mean I’m not like a resource
investor where that’s all I do I mean I
will buy things that are cheap I you
know we have other things in there that
and things I talk about but this is
what’s cheap right now this is where the
opportunity is is in resources and at
some point in the future I don’t know
when prices will rise sufficiently to
drive sufficient investment to cause uh
an over Supply this is you know
economics Works unless these governments
get involved and really screw it up
which they can just make the situation
worse never better so um I think we just
want to ride that wave uh as long as we
can with the inevitable ups and downs
that come along with
it but this is uh this is where we’re at
even if we get back to you know just
this area here it’s a tremendous move
right again gold stocks cheapest in 40
years gold equities have really been
this cheap in the past 40 years um this
is an opportunity and uh it it’s being
ignored you know
this period of the last 12 to 14 years
when these stocks have really stunk it
up this is what people have in their
they have this recency bias this well
this is they they’ve been crappy
performers so they’re going to continue
to be but the Dynamics are changing if
you think the gold price is moving
higher and we do I think I do um if the
commod we think all resources moving
higher and that will include gold and
silver this will be the opportunity
we’ve already seen some already some
results come out with some of these
newer uh higher prices in the gold price
already stimulating higher results
better higher and better results in cash
flow and earnings at some of the
producers okay so I think if you pick
your spots there’s opportunities here
that doesn’t mean you just go out and
rush out and buy that 10-cent you know
Saskatchewan junor that moose pasture
XYZ
gold mining I mean we’re talking about
you know starting out with the large and
midcaps and eventually as this bull
market develops which I think it will
then we’ll have the opportunity to
transition into the Juniors at some
point
but I think as the initial Capital comes
back to the market
um you you have this opportunity you
know I had a saw a fascinating video was
like a six or seven minute video this
week and I’m going to put it on the in
the weekly free email that I sent out by
the way the free email is available in
the show notes sign up for that on
substack that’s a weekly email I put out
with uh really interesting articles
videos that I see things that I just
find interesting it’s a little bit more
uh uh meteor than the than this weekly
report it kind of gives you the time to
kind of dive into some things but there
was a video on with George gamon and uh
what’s his name Hugh uh I can’t remember
the guy’s name now anyways he’s uh
really at one time was this big
portfolio manager back in the UK it’s
not Hugh Henry is it it might be and now
he lives in St Barts he’s grown his hair
and you know they were sitting there
having ROM and Co on the beach and you
know talking about poo pooing gold
stocks now I I’ll respect both these
guys but again is that looking back in
the past I’m going to put that video up
because it’s very interesting you know
there was a lot of opinion and a lot of
recency bias coming out but not much
about facts and yes gold mining stocks
stink most of the time they’re not Buy
and Hold Investments for your you know
widowed grandmother that’s living on a
pension and needs dividend income that’s
not what these are these are burning
matches these are trading sardines there
are periods of
time uh about once every five to 10
years when these things outperform and I
feel like we’re probably getting into
one of those times and
so you know you could have made the same
argument about gold equities being cheap
uh the last 40 years um but I think we
have a un you know you could have you
could have made the same argument over
the last 10 or 12 years and been wrong
so but I think we have a unique set of
circumstances that’s going to take the
gold price substantially higher in a
relatively you know in the short to
medium term which will bring the focus
back to these things so that’s my that’s
my view so again they’re not Buy and
Hold they’re more of trading sardines
for short periods of time when they do
have a tendency to outperform
so you know right now in the portfolio I
have some pretty solid I think you know
opportunities there that have
demonstrated they have some unique
characteristics uh but you know it’s not
really time I think to really be diving
deep into the Juniors that that time
will come but I don’t think it’s right
now but I do think that there is an
opportunity here and that’s there’s a
big difference of opinion on this a lot
of people are saying well yes these are
terrible businesses they are notorious
for destroying Capital if you hold them
longterm but if you can catch the wave
and I like I said I think this unique
set of circumstances is coming together
and I’ll explain later in the video why
I think one of those circumstances is
coming together then I think that uh you
you can see some outperformance
here so here’s gold and Yen right and
why is this well Japan is devaluing
their currency they have they’re in a
situation where they have tremendous
amount of indebtedness they’re probably
the most indebted country in the world
um they have their rates basically still
down around zero and they’re printing
money uh left and right they’ve moneti
they monetized their their government
debt and this is what you ha this is
what happens when you do that okay um
when you print more currency units the
it’s not the fact that people are
becoming the gold prices going up in
Japan the fact of the matter is they’re
devaluing the currency against things
that can’t be printed or or or made more
of you know gold as I said before people
have to expend energy going to the
ground uh it’s you can’t just expand at
5 10 20% a year what have you you can’t
monk around with it it’s only only
increases by 1% a year and so it’s so
uniquely uh attuned to protect people
against these devaluations and
currencies and as I’ve said before even
people you know this doesn’t mean it’s
actionable it’s going to happen but all
all currencies eventually Fiat
currencies paper currencies eventually
attain their um intrinsic value which is
zero and this is you know this is the
path that you see over time and now this
thing’s going exponential so we’ll
see this will eventually happen in to
the to the euro and to the dollar it’s
just a matter of time that the
indebtedness the promises that were made
they can’t be paid now that doesn’t mean
it’s going to happen next week that the
problem you got to like when’s you have
when’s it going to happen well no one
knows the future but you can see the
trend so trafigura CEO says copper must
surpass $10,000 to meet demand in order
to fill a potential Supply gap of 8
million tons by 2034 mining companies
need prices that are higher than $10,000
a ton and possibly as high as $112,000 a
ton says trafigura group chief executive
officer Jeremy
Weir and you know this Supply Gap in
Copper is you know been exasperated
exacerbated by uh several mine closures
or what happened in Panama uh what’s
happening in Chile and you know the
political elements now are starting to
exert effects on the supply of this
commodity while it’s in a growth mode
while demand is growing again in the
Emerging Markets it’s not necessarily
going to be driven by fully by the data
centers and AI demand in the US it’s
going to be driven by simple stuff like
air conditioners in
India long story short Copper’s got to
go higher to stimulate the investment to
increase
production so Robert fredin Mr copper
billionaire what’s he say here copper
hit you know $10,000 a ton for the first
time in two years and that may be just
the beginning it is just the beginning
has to go much higher it’s going to go
much higher than people believe uh
that’s what’s going to
happen and so you know we’re seeing the
emergence of copper shortages here’s a
S&P Global article from last week says
South Korea’s LS mnm to cut copper
production on concentrate shortage South
Korea based copper smelter LS metals and
materials is to cut copper production 40
met 40,000 metric tons in 2024 due to a
shortage of copper concentrate Supply
according to Market sources a company
representative was not available to
comment LS M Metals and materials has
680,000 metric tons of copper production
capacity and supplies refined copper to
China and Southeast Asia Supply
disruptions from Cobra Panama and copper
condensate exportation banss from
Indonesia origin shipment starting May
in May increased difficulties to Korean
smelter to meet production needs and
we’ve seen the same announcement out of
some Chinese smelters we’ve seen them
lower concentrate processing fees almost
to zero and they bid to draw more
concentrate in the problem is is they
don’t have enough concentrate to deliver
to these smelters that means shortages
that means prices are moving higher okay
so this is the people that actually
process the raw ore into refined copper
um don’t have enough ore coming it’s not
a it’s not because of demand the
demand’s there it’s because of
supply and like I said this I’ve seen
other articles where Chinese smelters
are in the same
position and so what are we seeing um
anglo-american is or BHP is offered $39
billion to take over anglo-american why
they want to get anglo-americans copper
assets okay um you’re going to start
seeing more of this cons consid
solidation now mining on Wall Street as
we’ve called it before all right because
the timeline to go out and just find
stuff and start from Ground Zero takes
10 to 15 years as we’ve talked about
before and right now anglo-american I
think is undervalued if you strip out
the copper assets away from the South
African assets that are drag on the
company that’s kind of what BHP is
looking to do and so let’s look at the
uh information from the article
anglo-american rejected rival minor BHP
P group’s 31 billion pound takeover
proposal on Friday saying the bids
significantly undervalued the London
listed company and its future prospects
mostly copper Australia’s BHP which was
has until May 22nd to make a binding bid
is expect expected to sweeten its offer
to try and clinch a deal that would
create the world’s biggest minor of
copper a metal Central to the clean
energy shift accounting for about 10% of
global output you know they always talk
about clean energy like that’s the only
it’s not that’s not the main driver
that’s a contributing fact the main
driver is the Emerging Markets those
four billion people entering that scurve
that’s what’s driving
this
mostly anyways a condition of bhp’s
proposal is that Anglo first distributes
to shareholders at stake in
anglo-american Platinum and Kumba iron
or both of which operate in South Africa
where BHP has no assets and they don’t
want to deal we don’t need to get into
what’s going on in South Africa they
want that stripped out it’s very easy
you put that together into a new company
and spin it up to current shareholders
of
anglo-american and then you the copper
assets go to BHP so again this price is
probably going higher I think at one
time not too long ago anglo-american was
like at a 50 billion market cap or
something like that uh I took a quick
look at it so this is undervalued and
BHP is trying to get these assets they
know where things are going and it’s
like okay should we just spend the money
and get these assets that anglo-american
really doesn’t have the ability or the
financial back backing to really develop
on their own uh you know BHP is the
world’s largest uh mining company so I
think again I think the takeaway from
this is you can expect more of this
you’ll start seeing people start looking
down the food chain of other copper
producers like Tech is probably in
somebody’s that’s a Canadian big
Canadian minor they’re they’ve really
divested away from coal and other things
and really focusing on their copper
assets so that could be you know one to
look at there’s a whole list of them
then you start getting down into the
midcaps uh these large mining companies
need multi-billion dollar type projects
to really move the needle but you could
see you know I don’t think you couldn’t
see the possibility of you know some of
these midcaps even merg so I think
you’ll see more of
this once these things start they
usually continue for some period of time
and uh well this is kind of letting you
know what’s going on and what’s really
happening you know could we see a bid
from Rio Tinto or glenor Ango and then
this thing really gets bid up I don’t
know I’m not predicting that but uh
anything’s possible right when you start
getting into these things
but something to keep an eye on I mean
copper people are most people are not
paying attention to it they don’t
understand this what’s really going on
on the demand side I think that people
are still asleep about the supply side
and I think you know once we hit maybe I
mean we’re in like the M four and a half
bucks a pound something like that if we
get to five over five dollar a pound I
think that wakes a lot of people
up I will say that the company name I
gave out which was a marago resources
which is a processor of copper tailes in
Chile has moved quite nicely and made an
a new uh 52- we High
recently based on the moveing copper
price it’s really just a pro it’s just a
manufacturing it’s not a mining company
I don’t consider a mining they just
process tailes and extract the remaining
copper out of them and uh as the price
of copper goes up their margins expand
it’s just a turns into a cash flow
machine that buys back shares and pays
dividends so something to look at uh
you’re not it’s not going to be a 10
bagger but it’s you know an easy way to
play The Copper that’s why I gave it out
you know in the in the portfolio we’re
looking for multi-baggers but
occasionally I like to drop a company
you know that’s you know at the current
at the current dividend rate I think
Amaro pays a 7% dividend slightly under
7% so as their cash flows increase they
should increase the dividend or have a
special dividend uh they used to were
they were buying back shares but they
kind of turned that off when copper was
under four bucks we’ll see what
happens so this goes back I got this
from Trader Ferg he puts out something
similar that I do his Ferg’s finds uh
you can go to I sign up for free he puts
it out for free something similar that I
do with my weekly email he sends out
things I missed this but this is a good
chart that kind of talks about what I
was talking about earlier this is the
change in electricity Demand by Reg
2022 to
2026 and as you can see um you see down
here the different colors China India
southeast Asia rest of the world
advanced economies you go out here to
you know where we are now you the
emerging market and developing economies
this is where the growth and electricity
demand is that’s why I put up here it’s
the Emerging Markets stupid advanced
economies yes because of the data center
and AI situation they’re going to
increase their demand for electricity
but the real growth is here and the co
it’s not going to happen without copper
demand okay
electricity demand Supply is All Copper
based yes there’s other metals involved
aluminum steel but if you start you know
looking at all these Transformers and
all this stuff this is all copper
okay this was interesting this from
Malden economics um got this off Twitter
I believe or
X I didn’t realize the outperformance
had been this great so you have the SM
this is since March 2020 energy well
basically oil and gas has has
outperformed Tech
since um March 2020 so you have the S&P
right here it’s up uh since March 2020
up
141% um xlk which I believe is a tech I
didn’t look up the exact name of the uh
ETF but I know the X XLE is the oil and
gas ETF and you see the
outperformance um and I think I would
suggest you it’s going to continue uh
especially as we uh as we’ve talked
about before I don’t need to keep
rehashing the same thing but I think I
found this fascinating that I don’t
think most people realize that yes
you’ve had some outliers with the
Magnificent 7 which have outperformed
the average Energy stock but we talk
about in TOT ity uh this is kind of
shocking and so can this outperformance
continue yes because I believe that
we’re in a
secular uh you know multi-year decade
long situation again energy demand is
going to continue to increase it’s
continues to increase we’re already
exceeded the PO pre- pandemic levels
okay and again it’s not doesn’t matter
what the US and what’s happening in the
US or Australia New Zealand and Europe
it’s all in the Emerging Markets that’s
where the growth is that’s where the
energy demand’s coming for the next
several
decades and a lot of people are missing
this so I thought this was this was kind
of like a upside the head wow I didn’t
realize the outperformance was that
great so this is from bison interest uh
you know a lot of people now are
starting to discuss the point um that we
are entering a stagflationary
environment stagflation being defined
where inflation stays elevated or goes
higher yet economic growth
stagnates okay uh something similar that
I lived through when I was a kid in the
70s um this is when I started first like
reading like the end of the 70s I mean I
was just uh probably 13 or 14 and I 78
79 80 around there talking about 1970s
uh that’s how far back we’re going and I
of course wasn’t some investment Guru or
didn’t know anything then but I had an
inkling what was going on I mean you
would see the reports on the news about
rates being raised inflation I’ve told
the story about you know going over to
my grandparents house who were basically
immigrants that you know barely spoke
English they were undereducated they had
accumulated some wealth through just
hard work and I remember you know my dad
sitting there and trying to explain to
my grandfather about you know get your
money out of these Banks uh that are
paying you nothing and I’ll take you I
mean take you down to the Minneapolis
Federal Reserve Bank and get you into t-
bills back then you couldn’t just go on
online like you can now you can go right
on the treasury website and buy t- bills
within 15 minutes uh back then you had
to go down to the office with a cashier
check uh to the window and fill out a
bunch of paperwork and then they would
sell it to you then they would send you
a postcard uh a couple weeks before the
these things matured and then you would
mark on there if you just wanted to roll
them and you know that’s how you had to
do it back then I rates were like 15 or
16% my grandfather didn’t believe it and
he didn’t understand that when you pay
it was a discount so you got a check
right then you didn’t get your interest
at the end right of the period so say it
was six-month De Bill so he didn’t
understand that and then he was like
shocked and he’s said man this is a
pretty good deal so I just tell that
story because I I think that just in my
lifetime I’ve seen how things have have
changed we you know the whole period
that was like my formative years and it
took me while I of course I
was you know a couple years later you
know when the rean administration came
in and got rid of a lot of regulations
that was a big reason why inflation came
down to it wasn’t just vulker um and I
didn’t understand that change
in what had happened we had the left
inflationary environment of the late 60s
70s that had been put in place with the
money printing for the Vietnam War and
the Great Society and I was my formative
years were based in that inflationary
stagflationary environment of the late
70s and it took me a while to understand
we weren’t in that anymore and as they
cut rates you know that 40-year bull
market if you just would have bought you
know bonds you know when vulker was
raising rates near the top when they
started cutting rates for the first time
and Reagan got elected if that was the
beginning of a 40-year bond bull market
if you would have just bought like you
know um zero coupon bonds you would have
and just held them for for 30 years or
40 years you would have you would have
made a ton of money and of course I
didn’t know that when I was you know 16
years old I was still operating from the
um uh Paradigm that I had been raised in
that I had seen that fact had fit my
life and took while to understand you
know that we were in this market and
then you have to shift your thinking and
the reason I’m talking about this and
bringing this up is because I think that
we’re in another situation I think that
the 40-year bull market in in interest
rates going down is over with okay and
now we’re entering a secular multi-
deade era of elevated inflation elevated
interest rates poor Bond all the things
that worked for the last 40 years
probably aren’t going to work as well
going forward and that’s the point I’m
trying to make and I’m not going to you
know I think from my experience now what
I saw that turning point it was
difficult to recognize or and it was
difficult to call for the financial
markets that had been accustomed to uh
investing you know this is when gold was
very popular you had to stand in line to
buy gold and
silver uh I mean you’d see all the
energy stocks I told the story about
Dome petroleum was one of the big you
know High Flyers back then energy was
doing very well and this is an example
right here this chart that uh Josh
Young’s outfit bison interest put up
inflation adjusted total returns for
select asset classes 1971 to 1981 and
you see over here on the left the best
performing asset class was energy
equities and then um REITs and then you
just see like the S&P 500 corporate
bonds and treasuries underperformed
right and
so this uh
I think that a lot of people are
thinking that we’re re-entering this and
it seems to be that way then you put on
the fact then you add to the equation
the fact that were there possibly a
paradigm shift away from a unipolar
world led by the United States to a
multi-polar world what does that mean
for global trade resource
development uh economic cooperation or
not lack of
coopera trading blocks are changing so
that is possibly
inflationary plus the fact that you know
um I think that we’re in a cold World
War III right now uh with the emerging
multipolar world as the US and its
satellites try to hold on to their
hedgemon and this isn’t a popular view
but I think you’re at one of those
turning points not to mention the fact
that the developed world is massively in
debt has massive demographic problems
has massal massive moral and ethical
issues that and stagnant political uh
apparatus that doesn’t recognize what’s
happening and is trying to hold run the
old Playbook that isn’t going to work
and these things I think are going to
lead to uh more inflation why you’re
already going to see it I mean how how
are all these I I’ve talked about this
so long I wrote an article maybe almost
10 years ago about social security and
Medicare the math doesn’t work there you
know the debts you cannot run these
deficits like this uh with these
interest rates consuming more and more
of the budget I mean you simply won’t be
able to raise taxes to pay for all of
this there’s a limit to how far any
government can raise taxes and so what
they always revert to is monetization of
the debt and so you couple all these
things together that old Paradigm of 40
Years of declining Bond rates and
interest rates and low inflation has to
be over and so what thriv during that
time okay probably isn’t going to do
well going forward that’s the point and
and then the question you have to ask
yourself are we in fact at that turning
point and how many people can actually
see it how many people won’t see it
until three five 10 years down the road
or never see it I mean that’s why you
have this conversation about these gold
bugs there’s that’s why a lot of these
guys are older guys that were saw what
happened in the 60s and 70s
and they never understood that there was
a paradigm shift now it’s finally
shifting again possibly it looks like it
may be to having the wind in their sails
but they’re at the end of their
life
so um we’ll see uh what happens uh I’m
not suggesting that this is in fact
what’s happening or is going to happen
but I just wanted to point this out that
in fact if we are going to this type of
period of
stagflation then based on history you
can see that you don’t want to be in the
things that work the
last 20 30 years you want to be in
things that you know on this side so
we’ll
see this is uh toi Costa threw this up I
think it’s from Bank of America yeah and
so this is basically ranked asset
returns in the 1970s this gives you even
more data so basically this is telling
you the asset classes they kind of do
something on us Global Investors with
commodities
but you can see the best performing
asset class for each year in the second
in the third the fourth and you could
see what happened you know you had uh uh
one two three four five six seven years
out of 10 that gold was the top
performing asset class during the
stagflation of the
70s and then you had Commodities being 1
two 3 four five you know up there also
so um obviously you can see the corre
that happened to I think this is really
illustrative why because even during the
secular bull market that you had in gold
and in Commodities there were times
where two years in a row where gold was
horrible it was down
24.8% okay there were draw Downs same
thing with commodities right they never
really went negative but you know didn’t
have you know good this is what happens
you have Corrections during secular you
can have a cyclical bare Market inside
of a secular bull market market so I
think that’s a thing that people need to
remember they say well you know and this
applies to the resource markets today so
many people start DM that’s why I don’t
like respond a lot to people that much
when they DM me with their you know um
whatever they’re on the fainting couch
because oh I bought this and it’s not
doing what I want it to do in the next
60 days after I bought it well you need
to look at this
chart if you’re in a secular bull market
that’s a decade long there’s going to be
pullbacks and so that’s one thing you
can glean from this the other thing you
can glean is if you believe that we’re
entering a stagflationary environment
which the argument is can be made for
the various reasons I’ve already talked
about then you could see what performed
best last time but again you will see
that you know there were periods where
things pulled back where year for two
years in a row gold underperformed was
negative did people hold through it I
don’t know do people have conviction I
don’t know how do people arrive at their
convictions do they do research do they
understand or they just listening to
some random on the internet you
know just because I say something or a
cuppy says something or who George gam
whoever you’re listening to uh you know
you have to take these things with a
grain of salt and do your own research
and arrive at your
own decisions and conviction
I’m not going to lie I get a lot of
ideas from a lot of people that doesn’t
mean that every idea that I listen to I
I go with I do my own research and I say
well that argument makes sense uh and I
think there’s potential there and I
think that’s what people need to do and
then over time you need to you
know understand you know what you’re
capable what risks you’re willing to
take and things like we’ve talked about
this
before but I think this is a really good
chart that I think people should uh and
and I’ll probably throw this up in the
weekly email too because people should
have this imprinted in their brain that
you
know just as an example of that even if
you’re in a secular bull market
um you know what what that meant I mean
look at the fact how what happened to
the dollar during that time look at Tech
these people that are all the tech Bros
yeah there were two couple years of
outperformance there were years of
decent performance but there were years
where 1 two three four out of the 10
years uh five out of the 10 years they
had negative returns
so something to keep in
mind so I wanted to throw this up here
not that it’s again it’s not going to
change the needle on uranium demand but
you know even Ghana is getting in on
nuclear power now I mean what does that
tell you about the the
demand about nuclear power it is the
solution I don’t I don’t know if this
plant ever gets build I don’t know
what’s going to happen but I just think
that even discussing this this isn’t
even a discussion you would see two or
three years ago and now you’re going to
see more of these discussions we’re
already seeing them and this is part of
the multi-polar world the United States
should be doing this we should we don’t
have a nuclear industry that we can
export and use as a way to uh develop
friendships and and ties with other
countries the Chinese do the Russians do
that’s why they’re getting gaining
ground in the the global east and south
and we’re having to resort to
threatening everybody with financial
Wars and physical Wars that model
doesn’t work nobody wants that model
anymore okay people want cooperation
Mutual benefit now you can make the
argument well China just is going to
exploit people worse than the US is well
you know it is what it
is nobody’s saying hey take this nuclear
power plant or we’re going to bomb you
or you know I it’s a different mentality
I’m not saying that a multi-polar world
would be better than the current world a
lot of people in the US and think tanks
are making the argument it won’t
be it may be a it may be a situation for
many of these countries meet the new
boss same as the old boss but it’s
inevitable that’s we’re going and I
think this is you know uh yes on the
first level
thinking it’s indicative of the growth
of uranium and nuclear power okay that’s
inevitable that’s the energy source of
the future it’s going to continue to
grow we’re going to make we’ve made a
ton of money we’re going to make a lot
more money because there’s just not
enough uranium the price needs to go
substantially higher seeing this is you
know this is what we want to see in
increased plants but on a geopolitical
scale this is what the Chinese and
Russians and others are doing they want
hey we’ll build you this nuclear power
plant they’re probably going to run it
for them they’re probably going to
supply the technicians the fuel the
whole shebang
okay and so what do what do we have to
offer you know are we even you know the
the activities I’ve seen of the US is
we’re getting kicked out of African
countries like
Niger and of course the Russians and the
Chinese will move in because you know
the only reason we would have relations
with China or with Niger is because you
know or France is being kicked out is
because they want the uranium well you
have to make it mutually beneficial for
people it’s not this colonial mindset
that we go in and we take what we want
and you subjugate yourself to us that’s
not going to work
anymore people are not interested in
that they want to know what’s in this
for me these are our resources these are
our assets we are poor you know they’re
exporting uranium and 90% of the people
in Nour I think don’t even have
electricity so you
know that’s why they had the
coup do I think that these African you
know do I think that they’re solid
citizens that want to do the best I year
no they want to get rich too but you
know if you expand the pie you can steal
more that’s I think how a lot of these
new leaders in these countries think
so regardless uh it looks like this
might happen look it says Ghana’s
thermal power generation is fueled
largely by natural gas but occasionally
using light crude and Diesel Ghana
exports power to Togo benon and Burkina
Faso which are also poor countries so
we’ll see if this actually happens um
but we’re seeing more of these
announcements that’s the
point so this came out this week that
basically the German green party
falsified reports that were made on the
shutdown of the nuclear power plants in
Germany basically making the situation
worse than it could be because they were
they just wanted to do whatever it
required to shut those plants down and
I’ll put a link in the weekly email to a
another article that expands on this
it’s beyond the scope of this discussion
but
basically um this is kind of a scandal
now that’s erupted there right and it
says uh in the spring of 2022 it was
clear to experts with the major Russian
attack on Ukraine the nuclear phase out
was history after the failure of Russian
gas supplies the risk of widespread
power outages and skyrocketing
electricity prices seemed too high to
afford a nuclear shutdown but things
turned out differently after a short
period of operation over the winter the
last German nuclear power plants went
off the grid on April 15 2023 about a
year
ago how could this happen Cicero editor
Daniel grber has released documents that
now allow an insight into the decisions
of economic Minister Robert hobik he’s
from the green party the report suggests
that top green officials from the
economics and environment Ministries
deliberately falsified expert reports
they obviously wanted to push through
the nuclear phase out at any price even
necessary against all economic and
scientific reason and so that’s what
they did and so now you’re in a
situation where you’re burning more coal
um then they went ahead and turned the
Blind Eye as the US and the British
probably blew up their gas pipeline to
to Russia and now you know the place
it’s chaos now it’s complete absurdity
it’s complete it’s so ridic ridiculous
it’s unbelievable and so now you’re
starting to see a populist backlash
because I think people are waking up
that you know well you know what uh
these political parties really don’t
have my interests best interest here and
so you know you’re in this terminal
economic
decline in Europe okay it’s not just in
Germany it’s all over it’s sick decrepit
and so you’re importing you know in the
mean I’m not going to get into it I’ve
talked about it before this is the you
want to talk about the dumbest stupidest
most ridiculous not wellth thought out
uh string of events Robert HCK and the
rest of the Funky Bunch I mean they
basically just tanked Germany they
tanked it and they’re going to get wiped
off on the Russians are going to win in
Ukraine they’re winning I don’t care
anybody says watch the reports they’re
advancing all over the place the
Europeans and the US do not have the
indust industrial capacity to support
Ukraine militarily the $61 billion do
that got approved isn’t going to do a
darn thing except for go back into the
defense contractors pockets and then be
given a portion of it given to
politicians as political uh
contributions that’s the game
okay and what did Germany get out of it
it gets to be de-industrialized becomes
poorer unstable and then what and then
the US walks away from the thing and
there you go again the whole thing the
whole point of NATO is what and has been
is to keep Russia out of Europe to keep
Germany down and keep the US in Europe
okay and now you’ve got you know they
don’t know what to do they’re panicking
over there because the Russians are
going to win there’s not going to be a
DMZ there’s not going to be an agreement
because the Russians now know that the
West is you know not capable of making
and keeping agreements and so a they
will continue moving the front they will
continue winning like they are I hate to
tell you that it’s not two years ago
it’s now you know it’s like the bunker
mentality that a lot of people in the
west or a lot of the uh people that
support Ukraine seem to have that they
have the bunker mentality that was
prevalent in April
1945 in Germany reliving the past
successes of the across France well
that’s not where we’re at now guys we
have Russian guns we can hear at the
right chancell okay it’s over and so the
Russians will impose a peace if you know
and so that’s what’s going to happen and
so what does that do geopolitically what
does that do to the EU what does that do
to
Nato what does that mean you know most
of the time geopolitical things don’t
really matter to markets but these this
is this is part of the Whole World War I
this is what’s going on in both Gaza and
in and in Ukraine this is part of the
heiman trying to hold on to its power
and it’s you know it’s
slipping we’ll talk about that and this
is part of it what did Germany should be
aligned with Russia German knowhow
scientific and engineering uh greatness
combined with Russian resources and
markets and a conduit of markets to the
East and the global south and east could
have made the Europe a Powerhouse in the
world oh no because the US doesn’t want
that because the us then is cut out
they’re over here across the pond
they’re out it goes back to the whole
Eurasia you
know whoever controls Eurasia or that
this part of Europe and and controls all
this controls you know that whole area
there of Central Europe Eastern Europe
controls the
world so there you go man I mean that’s
my view but it gets more complicated
obviously but that’s what’s happening
that’s what all this is
about so here’s some more to go on about
this uh the reactors can still be
restarted by the way it says uh experts
nuclear power plants that have been shut
down can be reactivated it is also
noteworthy that when Cicero editor
Daniel Graber sued in court for the
release of the nuclear F files hobik
experts were unable to State whether the
deactivated nuclear power plants could
still be activated now the Cicero
magazine citing expert says that five of
the last six German nuclear power plants
could be reative reactivated with
reasonable effort the dispute over
hobi’s decision to shut down the last
remaining nuclear reactors in the worst
energy crisis in decades is likely to be
anything but over and the debate about
how much habc really knew is just
beginning and again I pointed out
there’s polls in Germany that close to
50% of the people are open to having a
discussion about reactivating nuclear in
Germany okay and so you’re going to see
a populist backlash I mean these
governments are not in power for helping
their people and making their people’s
lives easier and more prosperous okay
they’re in it for themselves
and you
know that’s why you see these
absurdities like tearing down
100-year-old black forests trees to put
up a wind farm or tearing down a wind
part of a wind for Farm that’s already
been built so you can get to the liite
coal for the coal that you need to burn
in your power plants because you shut
your nuclear power plants down it’s just
absurd but that’s why these people
shouldn’t be allowed into Power they’re
absurd people they’re Petty people
they’re stupid people and this is what
you know they get into Power what’s
their qualifications they’ve mucked it
up
completely hopefully people will wake up
I’ll tell you one thing um they can
either wake up and change it now or when
the islamists come to power which they
eventually will there will be changes I
can guarantee you there will be
changes so I wanted to point this out uh
World War III update uh Felix zolof
zolof Consulting I think there’s a video
out where he just got interviewed by um
Grant Williams I’ll try to find it this
is one of my go-to guys I really like
I’ve listened to this guy for decades he
used to be on The Baron’s Round Table
very very insightful man and so I just
want to give you this quote that he said
and you know this is exactly what we’re
talking about this sums up everything
right here the US Centric unipolar world
is in the process of ending ing but the
US and its Western allies are trying to
defend it China the rising Challenger
keeps pushing for a multipolar order and
has the support or sympathy of the
global South this geopolitical conflict
transmits Regional conflicts like those
in you Ukraine or the Middle East into
proxy wars that take on a much more
important meaning that’s exactly
right that’s that’s my view exactly and
people will say well the World War III
will not be I mean pppa mgrm said
something similar World War III we’re
already in it it’s not going to be if
your reference point is World War I and
World War II know Chinese tanks aren’t
going to be rolling down Pennsylvania
Avenue you’re going to have cyber
attacks you’re going to have economic
Warfare we’ve already seen that you’re
going to have these proxy wars okay as
these various countries maneuver to get
their proxies to do their dirty work
okay that’s what you’re seeing right now
okay
and the dangerous thing is is that the
US instead of recognizing and coming
Inward and fixing the problems in the US
I mean the other day you had after the
61 billion doll got approved Democrats
and Republicans waving Ukrainian flags
on the house
floor okay while the borders out of
control while we have homeless problems
including homeless vet vets that are
committing suicide while we have
infrastructure problems the American
Society of civil engineers grades our
infrastructure in the USS D minus these
people hate you as the average American
they have no interest in representing
you they don’t represent you they
represent the oligarchy they represent
the donor class they don’t care about
you I’ve pointed this out and most
people just can’t seem to conceive this
because if you do it then you you’re
your whole world gets turned upside down
no neither part party represents you no
you should not participate in the
political system because it’s
corrupt so what’s so you know if you
don’t understand this you know keep
voting harder and see if it
changes you know you’re going to have
that’s why you see populism or you know
as they try to describe it in the media
nationalism fascism whatever they’re
trying to say people are fed up they
don’t know exactly what’s going on
because most people just don’t get it
most people are never going to get but
they can tell when they can’t make their
budgets work when they when you have a
whole generation of people that’s priced
out of housing when you know they can
see all these problems and even the
people that voted for in these blue
cities up north now that are getting
overwhelmed with these migrants and
resources are being taken away from them
already meager resources that they were
relying on and given to these
undocumented illegal
aliens I find it amusing
you know event I think I forget who said
this all everybody eventually sits down
to a banquet of
consequences and that’s what people are
doing now they’re sitting down to the
banquet of their consequences for the
decisions that they made you know and so
that’s the whole point right in your
life you should try to minimize risk but
most people don’t operate like this
people have low time preference I’m not
going to get into psychology but
yeah and so that’s why you’re seeing
rise of populism both on the left and
the right and so you’re going to see
these big huge swings in populism
because neither one of them has the
answer the real answer is you know
decentralization the United States cont
the continent North American continent
should be dozens of countries and people
should vote with their feet they’re
already doing it in the US they’re
already doing it in Europe you know you
have the Biden Administration talking
about you know these people are just
Flatout Neo marxists if they get
reelected they want to put forth
legislation to to raise the capital
gains tax to 46% and tax unrealized
gains in the because certain
demographics in the US don’t have any
wealth and they think that will solve
the
problem okay keep voting
harder in the meantime the
infrastructure is falling
apart you know I’m not going to keep
going but this is this is kind of this
is going to have an effect on so many
things and the reason why prices are
going to stay higher why because in a
regime where you’re having two blocks of
country of
countries with diametrically opposed
views you’re not going to have trade
perfect example the proxies Iranian
proxies in Yemen who support the
Palestinians have closed off the Red Sea
so that’s changed the trade patterns the
ab inability of certain shipping to go
through the Red Sea and so you have a
limited amount of tankers what happens
they have to travel further around
around Africa rates for tankers go up so
what I’m trying to tell you is there’s
always going to be wars and rumors of
wars and these things happening I think
we’re coming to a which is part of that
whole fourth turning but there are going
to be a ton of opportunities so you
should be optimistic if you’re looking
at from that perspective you should
prepare you should understand things for
how they are not how you want them to be
most people don’t do that okay okay and
then you say okay well this is the way
it is I can’t control it but how what
opportunities come out of this and how
can I take advantage of that because
your obligation is to your family first
okay and those people your kin and your
kind if you will so uh I think that’s
how you have to really approach this I
wouldn’t get too upset about it um but I
move from high tax blue states to uh low
tax red States or out of the country but
that’s a whole another discussion a lot
of people aren’t set up to do that but
this is going to manifest itself and
affect so many things economically
geopolitically and like I said it’s
going to cause distortions and
distortions are the uh feed stock for
speculators and here’s a perfect example
people say oh no John we’re not in World
War III so you have this blankin
who represents this moronic absurd ridic
ridiculous
Administration uh first they had Janet
Yellen fly over to China good cop you
know we’re going to do this we could to
do that and they took her around and oh
like treat her like a you know visiting
grandmother and the Chinese you know are
very polite they’re not going to you
know do anything and so then this
flies over there and this is what he
says US Secretary of State Anthony
blankin will warn China that the US will
take punitive steps unless it stops
sending weapons related technology to
Russia as Washington considers putting
sanctions on Chinese financial
institutions during a visit to China
next week he already went by the way
blinkin will tell his counterparts that
the US and its allies are becoming
increasingly impatient with beijing’s
refusal to stop providing Moscow with
everything from chips to cruise missile
engines to help rebuild its industrial
base so the Chinese received him they
listened to him when he left the airport
there were no Chinese to leave the
country there were no Chinese officials
there the Ambassador the US ambassador
shook his hand and put him on a plane um
the Chinese and Russians and the global
east and south are not going to get
dragged into a shooting war with the
United States United States is trying to
get a war going they this this is their
La you know this is their last throw of
the dice and so they already played
their
card they already played this financial
Terror card with Russia by you know
impounding their assets so they’re going
to do this is why even though Chinese
companies are really cheap and I
considered investing them I already got
burned When They confiscated my uh
United States put the sanctions on and
chief Russian assets were
uninvestable okay and I lost a lot of
money so you know they already tried
this with Russia it didn’t work now
they’re going to try it with China and
so you know there’s so many things that
the bricks can do the the you know most
of the resources on the planet are
controlled by the Bricks now or will be
as it expands it’s going to slowly but
surely continue selling treasuries not
buy more continue buying gold continue
to disassociate themselves away from the
Western Financial system they can kick
China out of Swift China already has a
an alternative system up and
running it’s not going to work that that
that card was played it didn’t work you
didn’t destroy Russia you’re certainly
not going to destroy
China and you know
we don’t have it’s like Mo green when he
was telling you know it didn’t really
work out that way but it’s kind of like
you know you guys don’t have that kind
of power anymore you know they were
mistaken of course but you know this is
where the conflict comes from you know
and we keep raising the anti why don’t
we just understand that we’re not this
isn’t you
know post World War II United States and
that we have to get along with people
and we have to have mutual agree you
know this is the whole thing with Ron
Paul nobody wanted to vote for that they
had their
opportunity but you know we are
controlled by an oligarchy that benefits
from these conflicts and so you know
this is this is going to continue until
you know this this is going to resolve
itself one of two ways a shooting War
which I believe the US wants I believe
these people actually want a shooting
War because this solves a lot of
problems for them that are coming down
the pipeline and secondly uh or could
solve itself just politically over time
as the US continues to have to recede
and pull back because they’re just
overstretching the economics won’t allow
for it the debts won’t allow for it uh
the problems that we’re going to run
into uh financially trying to maintain
this Empire simply aren’t going to allow
us to do it and so I think the Chinese
are patient the Russians are patient
they know all they have to do is wait
the United States is self- ulating
itself um and with its debts and its
problems internally um again not only
are we in World War III we’re also in a
cold Civil War here we’re not United
nobody’s voting for this nobody wants to
deal with this I mean the United States
I have predicted before will not
probably exists as an intact political
entity in 25 years it can’t there’s
irreconcilable differences between 50%
of the population with the other
50% and a lot of people say I’m wrong or
they that’s my opinion I’m willing to
have that discussion and show you what
I’m talking
about you know you you have an
Administration that has weaponized the
justice department against it against
its uh enemies I’m fully for if it flips
now what’s go good for the goose is good
for the
gander and so you know if it flips on
this next election if it did and you get
populists in there and Mr Trump gets
back in there uh there you know if they
go for payback I’m all for it because
you can wipe your butt with the
Constitution doesn’t mean anything
anymore okay it it doesn’t you just see
what’s going on in this country and the
abuses of government and even at the
federal state level you see it all the
time and if you don’t see it you’re just
choosing to ignore it or you’re on the
side that’s benefiting from it so
anyway I think this is going to have
unknown and profound
effects like I said economically
socially politically that are going to
create opport opportunities for
speculation and
investment okay guys that’s it for this
week appreciate the following Channel
continues to grow we thank you
appreciate it and we’ll talk to you next
week

I believe we are already in a cold WWIII based on the continuing collapse of the post-WWII rules-based order dominated by Pax Americana.

As a new multi-polar world emerges, dominated by the global east and south, we will likely see economic, political, and social upheaval. This will create investing and speculating opportunities for those who understand the changing landscape.

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