“The Average Person Has No Idea About What’s Coming” | Raoul Pal

    when you debase the
    currency gives
    you an optical illusion that asset
    prices are
    rising so this chart of the NASDAQ
    versus the total liquidity index shows
    how correlated they are it’s actually 97
    a half%
    correlation now the NASDAQ actually
    outperforms this because it’s a sec
    secular Trend but this debasement
    explains almost all of the movements of
    all assets over time which is why
    everything is so correlated yes some
    things lead some things lag but this is
    the crucial chart to understand the
    answerers of the demographics is more
    debt the demographics is causing a
    slower um
    economy and to get over that they issue
    more liquidity debase the currency to
    pay for it that makes asset prices rise
    this is the everything code and it’s
    really important wait a minute everyone
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    now in today’s video rul pal shares his
    new prediction for Bitcoin in the next
    cycle rul also explains his thought
    process on the crypto and macro big
    picture so without wasting any time
    let’s dive into the
    video you see most people don’t
    understand that this is the global
    liquidity index from all the major
    central banks it’s growing at an 8%
    annualized
    rate now once you add in global
    inflation and let’s call Global
    inflation about
    4% you’ve got a 12% hurdle rate for any
    investment now that’s pretty staggering
    because if you think about the S&P 500
    it does about 12% a year so basically
    you’re not getting ahead by doing it
    your savings aren’t uring future value
    just present
    value this 12% hurdle rate is a huge
    problem for people if you don’t
    understand it you’re basically getting
    poorer if you don’t hit your 12% so if
    you’re just investing in bonds and think
    it’s a good idea to get the 5% interest
    well you actually your future self is
    getting poorer unsustainable budget
    deficits and persistent inflation have
    hashkey Capital analysts predicting a
    $100,000 $200,000 bitcoin price by the
    end of
    2024 Bitcoin pric has surged throughout
    2024 fueled by the launch of several
    spot exchange traded funds ETF and the
    assets fundamental role as a store value
    the interest in Bitcoin is expected to
    persist particularly as the United
    States State’s government’s continued
    High spending and interest rate policy
    discussions Prevail suggested
    grayscale’s research director Zach
    pandel we expect persistent inflation
    and unsustainable budget deficits to
    contribute to continued demand for store
    of value assets like Bitcoin pandel told
    coin Telegraph predicting the future
    value of Bitcoin remains challenging due
    to the multiple underlying variables in
    play yet Jupiter xen partner at hash key
    capitals liquid fund sees significant
    potential for growth suggesting that
    Bitcoin could possibly hit
    $200,000 by the end of the year low
    prediction will be
    $100,000 medium one is
    $140,000 and high prediction is
    $200,000 by the end of 2024 Jane
    explained in an interview with
    cointelegraph the positive impact of ETF
    on the cryptocurrency market has made
    crypto Investments more accessible and
    appealing to a broader audience over the
    long term bitcoin’s price Behavior will
    start to mirror that of traditional
    assets such as equity and gold this
    could potentially lead to more stable
    growth and integration into mainstream
    investment portfolios he added venture
    capitalist Tim Draper has predicted that
    BTC will triple in value in 2024 due to
    the inflows into ETF and the impact of
    the Bitcoin having Draper expressed
    optimism about bitcoin’s trajectory in
    an interview with coint graph at Paris
    blockchain week reflecting on his
    earlier predictions and suggesting a
    possible run rise to
    $250,000 by Year’s End given the
    positive signs he observes in the market
    the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETF in
    the United States has significantly
    revived interest and capital investment
    in Bitcoin the investment products have
    opened up a new Avenue for Bitcoin
    curious investors who might be daunted
    by the prospect of holding BTC in self-
    custody and serve as a hedge against
    devaluing Fiat currencies Draper added
    so when we look
    at Global equities
    versus the total liquidity index we’ve
    seen that since 2008 from the crisis
    when they started printing
    money it collapsed but then it’s been
    sideways ever
    since so they’ve basically offset the
    balance sheet but done no better and if
    we took it from 2007 before the big
    printing started it’s actually lost
    2.54% a year versus the debasement so
    you’ve been poorer for owning equities
    generalized Global equities than um than
    the debasement itself so that’s cost you
    money when we talk about
    crypto I use the chance of Bitcoin here
    because Bitcoin has the longest price
    history it too is stunningly correlated
    with global
    liquidity you see Bitcoin has an 87 and
    a half% correlation not as high as the
    NASDAQ because as you can see it’s the
    periods of
    outperformance that lowers that
    correlation when we start to get you
    know full kind of mania you know Crypt
    Mania cycles that you get in this
    exponential asset because it is a much
    more exponential curve um because it’s
    driven by Tech adoption um and we’ll
    come on to that in a second as well but
    you can see that liida is the driver of
    Bitcoin plus
    technology but when I look at Bitcoin
    versus is global liquidity it’s
    outperforming the debasement by 105% a
    year I mean that’s a staggering
    difference versus global equities which
    are not doing anything at all and are
    probably
    negative that’s a huge huge difference
    in your future purchasing power which is
    why this is such an important asset and
    again I’ll come on some more of this in
    a
    bit but we’ve ascertained that
    technology stocks are in a secular bull
    market they’re 97 half% correlated but
    they’ve been rising very well Over
    time however when you look at NASDAQ
    versus Bitcoin this is a crucial chart
    so NASDAQ is the best performing Equity
    Market in the world essentially but when
    you look at it versus Bitcoin since this
    period of debasement NASDAQ has
    underperformed by 99
    93% just wrap your head around that and
    it doesn’t stop it’s underperforming by
    45% a
    year and as you can see we’re going to
    break to new lows and this chart will
    just continue as Bitcoin and crypto eat
    the world it’s something I call the
    super massive black hole I look at
    Bitcoin charts versus every asset and
    they’re all the same they’re all down 19
    9.9 something
    per. and then I look at relative values
    between Bitcoin and ethereum or Bitcoin
    and salana and that’s where you get to
    choose what you think the fastest horses
    and that’s why I chose salana this cycle
    but basically crypto is the super
    massive black hole the asset that
    appreciates faster than anything else
    and on a risk adjusted basis too while
    historical having events offer some
    insight the current sit situation
    presents a novel scenario with ETF
    introducing more volatility to crypto
    prices due to fluctuating demand
    bitcoin’s recent volatility suggests
    that the market is adjusting to new
    supply and demand Dynamics particularly
    with the global introduction of spot ETF
    that could significantly increase
    bitcoin’s demand in the upcoming months
    potentially driving up its price on the
    flip side these Investments could cost
    more volatility as investors can move in
    and out of funds more easily than they
    can and with self- custody Jen said our
    current model price is
    $90,000 a more bullish scenario is
    $125,000 and a bearish one is
    $50,000 the key factors are the spot BTC
    ETF net inflows as a measure of trafi
    adoption process the FED interest cut
    late this year the 2024 BTC having
    creating more imbalance of demand and
    Supply he added while predicting the
    precise value of BTC by the end of 2024
    is difficult there is consensus among
    experts that its price is likely to see
    an upward trajectory throughout the year
    these predictions are based on the
    expectation of highend flows into the
    Bitcoin ETF the asset quality as a store
    of value and the current macroeconomic
    conditions and do not forget to
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    Journey until next time happy investing

    “The Average Person Has No Idea About What’s Coming” | Raoul Pal
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    In today’s video, Raoul Pal dives deep into the Future adoption of the Bitcoin network, the U.S. dollar inflation, & what is fueling the Bitcoin bull market, Raoul Also Shared his prediction for Bitcoin in 2024, and what he thinks about the Bitcoin halving. So without wasting any time let’s dive into the video.
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    Credit: Raoul Pal The Journey Man

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    26 Comments

    1. I've been saying for years now that people can't wrap their minds around how high Bitcoin can go. Everyone is preaching caution right now which is interesting. The reality is that the demand is just getting started. Only a fraction of the asset managers have been buying. Plus Hong Kong still is awaiting the approval of their ETF. Then there will be retail. Things could get really serious. Those of us who were still buying the week after the FTX crash are about to be rewarded. Central to this transformative shift is Tobias Hawke, whose profound comprehension of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has played a crucial role. His comprehensive investment strategy and dedication to staying informed about market trends position him as an invaluable ally in navigating this new era of cryptocurrency investment…managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months.

    2. I Hit 113k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject.

    3. I’m convinced (someone) will shut down the electric system in the near future. All the major governments are at least in a financial, monetary and cyber warfare mode currently. When the banks crash turning off the lights would stop social rebellion, even better if there is a question on who did it.

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