“The Average Person Has No Idea About What’s Coming” | Raoul Pal
when you debase the
currency gives
you an optical illusion that asset
prices are
rising so this chart of the NASDAQ
versus the total liquidity index shows
how correlated they are it’s actually 97
a half%
correlation now the NASDAQ actually
outperforms this because it’s a sec
secular Trend but this debasement
explains almost all of the movements of
all assets over time which is why
everything is so correlated yes some
things lead some things lag but this is
the crucial chart to understand the
answerers of the demographics is more
debt the demographics is causing a
slower um
economy and to get over that they issue
more liquidity debase the currency to
pay for it that makes asset prices rise
this is the everything code and it’s
really important wait a minute everyone
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now in today’s video rul pal shares his
new prediction for Bitcoin in the next
cycle rul also explains his thought
process on the crypto and macro big
picture so without wasting any time
let’s dive into the
video you see most people don’t
understand that this is the global
liquidity index from all the major
central banks it’s growing at an 8%
annualized
rate now once you add in global
inflation and let’s call Global
inflation about
4% you’ve got a 12% hurdle rate for any
investment now that’s pretty staggering
because if you think about the S&P 500
it does about 12% a year so basically
you’re not getting ahead by doing it
your savings aren’t uring future value
just present
value this 12% hurdle rate is a huge
problem for people if you don’t
understand it you’re basically getting
poorer if you don’t hit your 12% so if
you’re just investing in bonds and think
it’s a good idea to get the 5% interest
well you actually your future self is
getting poorer unsustainable budget
deficits and persistent inflation have
hashkey Capital analysts predicting a
$100,000 $200,000 bitcoin price by the
end of
2024 Bitcoin pric has surged throughout
2024 fueled by the launch of several
spot exchange traded funds ETF and the
assets fundamental role as a store value
the interest in Bitcoin is expected to
persist particularly as the United
States State’s government’s continued
High spending and interest rate policy
discussions Prevail suggested
grayscale’s research director Zach
pandel we expect persistent inflation
and unsustainable budget deficits to
contribute to continued demand for store
of value assets like Bitcoin pandel told
coin Telegraph predicting the future
value of Bitcoin remains challenging due
to the multiple underlying variables in
play yet Jupiter xen partner at hash key
capitals liquid fund sees significant
potential for growth suggesting that
Bitcoin could possibly hit
$200,000 by the end of the year low
prediction will be
$100,000 medium one is
$140,000 and high prediction is
$200,000 by the end of 2024 Jane
explained in an interview with
cointelegraph the positive impact of ETF
on the cryptocurrency market has made
crypto Investments more accessible and
appealing to a broader audience over the
long term bitcoin’s price Behavior will
start to mirror that of traditional
assets such as equity and gold this
could potentially lead to more stable
growth and integration into mainstream
investment portfolios he added venture
capitalist Tim Draper has predicted that
BTC will triple in value in 2024 due to
the inflows into ETF and the impact of
the Bitcoin having Draper expressed
optimism about bitcoin’s trajectory in
an interview with coint graph at Paris
blockchain week reflecting on his
earlier predictions and suggesting a
possible run rise to
$250,000 by Year’s End given the
positive signs he observes in the market
the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETF in
the United States has significantly
revived interest and capital investment
in Bitcoin the investment products have
opened up a new Avenue for Bitcoin
curious investors who might be daunted
by the prospect of holding BTC in self-
custody and serve as a hedge against
devaluing Fiat currencies Draper added
so when we look
at Global equities
versus the total liquidity index we’ve
seen that since 2008 from the crisis
when they started printing
money it collapsed but then it’s been
sideways ever
since so they’ve basically offset the
balance sheet but done no better and if
we took it from 2007 before the big
printing started it’s actually lost
2.54% a year versus the debasement so
you’ve been poorer for owning equities
generalized Global equities than um than
the debasement itself so that’s cost you
money when we talk about
crypto I use the chance of Bitcoin here
because Bitcoin has the longest price
history it too is stunningly correlated
with global
liquidity you see Bitcoin has an 87 and
a half% correlation not as high as the
NASDAQ because as you can see it’s the
periods of
outperformance that lowers that
correlation when we start to get you
know full kind of mania you know Crypt
Mania cycles that you get in this
exponential asset because it is a much
more exponential curve um because it’s
driven by Tech adoption um and we’ll
come on to that in a second as well but
you can see that liida is the driver of
Bitcoin plus
technology but when I look at Bitcoin
versus is global liquidity it’s
outperforming the debasement by 105% a
year I mean that’s a staggering
difference versus global equities which
are not doing anything at all and are
probably
negative that’s a huge huge difference
in your future purchasing power which is
why this is such an important asset and
again I’ll come on some more of this in
a
bit but we’ve ascertained that
technology stocks are in a secular bull
market they’re 97 half% correlated but
they’ve been rising very well Over
time however when you look at NASDAQ
versus Bitcoin this is a crucial chart
so NASDAQ is the best performing Equity
Market in the world essentially but when
you look at it versus Bitcoin since this
period of debasement NASDAQ has
underperformed by 99
93% just wrap your head around that and
it doesn’t stop it’s underperforming by
45% a
year and as you can see we’re going to
break to new lows and this chart will
just continue as Bitcoin and crypto eat
the world it’s something I call the
super massive black hole I look at
Bitcoin charts versus every asset and
they’re all the same they’re all down 19
9.9 something
per. and then I look at relative values
between Bitcoin and ethereum or Bitcoin
and salana and that’s where you get to
choose what you think the fastest horses
and that’s why I chose salana this cycle
but basically crypto is the super
massive black hole the asset that
appreciates faster than anything else
and on a risk adjusted basis too while
historical having events offer some
insight the current sit situation
presents a novel scenario with ETF
introducing more volatility to crypto
prices due to fluctuating demand
bitcoin’s recent volatility suggests
that the market is adjusting to new
supply and demand Dynamics particularly
with the global introduction of spot ETF
that could significantly increase
bitcoin’s demand in the upcoming months
potentially driving up its price on the
flip side these Investments could cost
more volatility as investors can move in
and out of funds more easily than they
can and with self- custody Jen said our
current model price is
$90,000 a more bullish scenario is
$125,000 and a bearish one is
$50,000 the key factors are the spot BTC
ETF net inflows as a measure of trafi
adoption process the FED interest cut
late this year the 2024 BTC having
creating more imbalance of demand and
Supply he added while predicting the
precise value of BTC by the end of 2024
is difficult there is consensus among
experts that its price is likely to see
an upward trajectory throughout the year
these predictions are based on the
expectation of highend flows into the
Bitcoin ETF the asset quality as a store
of value and the current macroeconomic
conditions and do not forget to
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Journey until next time happy investing
“The Average Person Has No Idea About What’s Coming” | Raoul Pal
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In today’s video, Raoul Pal dives deep into the Future adoption of the Bitcoin network, the U.S. dollar inflation, & what is fueling the Bitcoin bull market, Raoul Also Shared his prediction for Bitcoin in 2024, and what he thinks about the Bitcoin halving. So without wasting any time let’s dive into the video.
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Credit: Raoul Pal The Journey Man
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26 Comments
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Raoul is fake
Bitcoin is no longer in a cycle. Wake up
Stop with the clickbait titles, amateur hour
I've been saying for years now that people can't wrap their minds around how high Bitcoin can go. Everyone is preaching caution right now which is interesting. The reality is that the demand is just getting started. Only a fraction of the asset managers have been buying. Plus Hong Kong still is awaiting the approval of their ETF. Then there will be retail. Things could get really serious. Those of us who were still buying the week after the FTX crash are about to be rewarded. Central to this transformative shift is Tobias Hawke, whose profound comprehension of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has played a crucial role. His comprehensive investment strategy and dedication to staying informed about market trends position him as an invaluable ally in navigating this new era of cryptocurrency investment…managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months.
I Hit 113k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject.
Can you ask Mr. Raul about XRP. As a macro economist he knows more about banking and XRP.
Hbar ❤❤❤
I’m convinced (someone) will shut down the electric system in the near future. All the major governments are at least in a financial, monetary and cyber warfare mode currently. When the banks crash turning off the lights would stop social rebellion, even better if there is a question on who did it.
ah the same old doomsday news 🙂
Scamer !!!