Bitcoin crash on track – time to pick these crypto leaders

Bitcoin crash on track – time to pick these crypto leaders

all right guys we are back with another
update Bitcoin has continued the crash
back down to
$56,000 getting very close to our 50%
level here so good things look like they
are coming but I want to get through
some of the risks of buying now trading
uh this crash and potentially buying the
exact low I’ve also got some strong
altcoins to look at and how you can spot
these for yourself a little bit on xrp
too and of course the interest rate
announcements we just saw in the last 24
hours what does this mean to the market
and are we going to see further pauses
are we going to see cuts which the
probabilities of swung to or some hikes
so plenty to get through in today’s
video it’s your home of macro cycle
analysis thanks again for supporting the
non nonsense titles and thumbnails none
of this big warning stuff I still need
your help Smash Up the likes 4,000 in
today’s video and hopefully this
continues on in the journey that we’re
going towards but 400 th000 subscribers
but first uh the interest rate
announcements come out they’re on pause
I don’t think that comes as a surprise
today however what does come as a
surprise is how quickly the masses and
uh th this tool in particular has swung
back to Cuts in some of the upcoming
meetings so what we know from reviewing
this over the last several months and
the theory of mine has been that we
would see rates remain on pause
meanwhile for 2023 everyone thought it
was going to be Cuts so we’re looking at
the blue circle here and these are your
interest rates at the top uh if we’re
reflect back to the beginning of the
year it was like this they thought they
were going to be at roughly 4.75 to 5%
by this stage and of course we’re still
at 5 a half% and it looked like it was
going to be Cuts throughout the entirety
of 2024 now from this pause we’ve seen
interest rates now swing back to look at
a cut in November whereas to ago it was
going to be a pause in November so one
thing we’ve learned is that the further
out you look the more incorrect this
probability chart is we’ve remained with
the idea it’s going to be paused which
could then lead to higher prices in the
stock markets yes higher interest rates
and higher prices because of where we
sit in the cycle this has been the view
for many many many months now you don’t
need the interest rates to be cut to get
those high prices and I think the stock
Market has adjusted to that that’s
essentially what this thing was written
up here in January that’s what I was
looking at months and months ago now
it’s not that difficult to get this
right you just have to avoid the
mainstream media and avoid I don’t know
99% of the junk that’s on YouTube and
Twitter I’m no smarter than you it’s
just about removing that noise removing
that distraction and seeing how these
things play out time and time again it’s
the same old jargon someone calling for
a massive collapse over and over again
the fed’s going to break something etc
etc it’s the same BS every single time
so in terms of the interest rates I
still think we’ve got a couple of pauses
left here the only chance that I think
we would get a cut is if we started to
see the masses swing to the right which
would mean a rise and you’d start to see
some extra columns brought in here and
you’d see interest rate hikes so I think
when the market believes that is the
case then maybe we see another pause or
two or we actually start to see some
Cuts so that going to be what we
continue to follow up with that’s what’s
happened with the interest rates now
these are some of the notes that we’ve
been going through for coming up to two
months now the 3-day down signal has
been a big one for Bitcoin and that
crash which I’ll get to in just a moment
but there was another uh rule that we
could add to this over the last couple
of weeks we saw three weeks down for the
S&P and for the NASDAQ and I think it
was on bitcoin too but essentially three
red weeks I should say not just three
weeks down but three red weeks red red
red all this implies is that there is a
higher chance not a guarantee but a high
chance that we would see a rally and
then another test to the downside so
this correction might not be over yet
but typically you’d see at least another
check so a check of this low maybe go a
little bit lower and by that stage we
start to climb out of the correction and
start to work our way higher which also
Lin Ls up with the election year
seasonal pattern so if we drag this
thing forward probably somewhere down
the vicinity of here this is April uh
and may has obviously bounced back a
little bit so that’s what it would look
like right now essentially just looking
at the grind that the stock market in
this case S&P 500 sees during an
election year and then once you get to
about June you start to grind out of it
so may typically shows a you can see on
the red line here and the blue line and
the black line you’d see some sort of
bottom forming which is potentially next
week or the week after so sort of that
first half of May and then starts to to
climb out of that low not a new Fresh
high but it climbs out of that low so we
might not see those new fresh highs till
uh quarter 3 of 2024 and then of course
that leads into the election which also
has another period of Correction so
that’s what we’re seeing with the with
the stock markets which is going to also
affect Bitcoin and that downside that
we’ve currently seen so if we continue
to see further downside here that might
put more pressure on BTC to also
continue down you can see we’ve had that
rejection dead on the 50% level it’s why
it’s so important to master this 50%
level and understand how to uh use it to
your advantage shortterm long-term it
just happens time and time again
rejected off that 50% level and uh you
know now we’re coming bring back to test
the next 50% to the downside I wouldn’t
be getting too worried about this
correction unless it started to break
down and close below 4700 points for the
S&P 500 seen a couple of calls for this
thing to um to to boom and collapse this
year it’s still not looking likely at
this stage the same deal for the NASDAQ
just needs a bit more time to cool off
here probably going to go through the
similar sort of pattern to the S&P we’ve
seen the three red weeks the rally from
those three red weeks and now we’re
coming back to test those uh lower
prices yet again you can see the signal
back here three red weeks a rally came
back down I’ve gone through this several
times before we’ve got another three red
weeks a rally come back and test didn’t
get that low and then it continued on
three red weeks rally and a test so it’s
not a guarantee it’s just looking at the
probabilities that’s typically uh
typical to what the market will do after
such a significant move to the downside
one quick note about any sort of
recessions or collapses in
2024 uh the U UK Market has hit another
new alltime high yesterday had a down
day but the day before new alltime high
day before that new alltime high another
new alltime high alltime high alltime
high alltime high remember the UK was
also in a technical recession so just as
a reminder if you’re new into the
financial space or you know you’ve been
around for 12 months 24 months and
you’ve never really seen a recession
these sort of technical recessions
don’t really matter to the market I know
some people get a little bit triggered
about that but what you are trading is
the chart you’re not trading the
recession or some crazy guy that’s been
in the market for 50 years telling you
the Market’s going to
collapse just follow the chart follow
the chart and you’ll be okay so moving
on to bitcoin and crypto that’s my
little rant for the day hopefully it’s
it’s helped you out if you do see some
sort of recessions just follow the chart
looking at the fear and greed index now
for Bitcoin and cryptos we want to get
on to some of those strong cryptos as
well today’s bar of roughly $4,000
testing
$56,000 for the first time since well
late February is dead on that 50% level
now this might be the call that get gets
the fear and GD index back into the
fearful Zone not sure about the extreme
fear Zone but POS probably I think
somewhere in the fearful Zone you’re
going to know this we might even know it
by the end of this video if it takes me
too long to record it but essentially
something like that after going from
greed to neutral might in fact get it
back into fear I have heard the calls
that some people are questioning the
fear and greed index now because it’s
been greedy for so long while Bitcoin
had basically been trading sideways
let’s give it a little more time to see
whether there is a problem with the
reading itself like with how the data is
collected and this result produced uh
until before we basically throw the baby
out with the bath water I should know
that one going to have my second baby
next week week obviously my wife is
going to have the second baby next week
moving on these are the huge signals
that came up in mid-march three red days
here three red triangles which mean
there was less chance that Bitcoin was
going to run up to a new all-time high
sooner rather than later based on
probabilities of the entire history of
Bitcoin and the entire history that this
rule has been tested on on other markets
that’s the beauty about this particular
rule so far we find ourselves down from
the top 48 days we’re going to be 49
Days by the time this ticks over and I
dare say it’s going to at least get past
the 60 days before we reach a new
all-time high so this is on par with
some of the other previous Corrections
and we have seen the largest correction
to the downside now
23.4% so in the intro I talked about
this trading this crash risks of buying
now and buying the exact low let’s
squash this one straight up no one I
hope is trying to buy the exact low if
you have a target of $50,000 and that is
the lowest price you think it’s going to
go set your orders at 52 or 53 maybe set
a little bit at 56 the idea is to have a
pyramid style entry where you would put
the most in at these low prices a little
bit in here or sort of a medium amount
and then a little less
and a little less again that I think is
one of the easiest strategies to
implement for anyone whether you’re new
or existing to crypto or even investing
in general and you have no idea how to
enter these markets personally it’s not
about waiting for that low tick that
exact low tick trying to buy that exact
low tick and then going all in at that
low tick I know it always sounds like
that on on X or Twitter or YouTube
everyone thinks they’re buying the
lowest tick possible in reality it never
works out like that so have a strategy
for a drop here at
23% maybe a strategy if it gets to 30%
maybe another strategy if it gets to 40%
down there’s all the possibilities here
because no one knows exactly what’s
going to happen on this black side of
the chart so keep it in mind as we
continue forward so far Bitcoin has done
pretty well what what we have been
anticipating in terms of time and price
we weren’t expecting major High prices I
did look at the possibility of a78 or
$80,000 push if this was going to have a
final push but it never got there and it
failed which means well that was
invalidated and now to the downside
we’re looking at the 50% level which
essentially it’s only a couple hundred
bucks off now 565k and the 50% was at 56
nearly 200 so that’s hit the 50%
probably not a bad area for risk reward
for entering the market even if it goes
lower and if it does go lower
we can have a look at the percentages
here from that low price to the next
resistance level of roughly
53,000 that I had put in one of these
titles a few weeks back you guys might
have remembered that 30% crash 53k crash
after harving that would take us about
6% down from that low personally I’m not
trying to catch the exact low price in
any move I’m just looking out for areas
that the market could come back and test
and if it doesn’t well at at least I’ve
got my plan in place to get in a little
bit higher even if it’s not the exact
price that I wanted so buying the exact
low let’s get rid of that the risks of
buying now well we’ve kind of covered
that here where the risk to the downside
is possible 6% to the next support level
the next one after that roughly around
that 48 49k which was the peak for the
ETF announcement when everyone else was
hyped up like this thing was going to go
bananas and also the monthly swing top
back in March of 2022 this was the
lowest top the complacency bounce before
the collapse that is your level there
that’s about a 14% move away and for the
for good measure let’s do the entire
range of this current bull market it’s
50% through the middle which is $
44,600 that’s about a 20% move away from
that low from the current price maybe
you’re watching this now 23% so roughly
around 20% from the low down to that 44
I’m not saying it’s going to get there I
don’t think it’s going to get get there
but what do I know I’m just looking at
what’s happening or what the
possibilities are for the black side of
the chart and then layering accordingly
if I think there is even a 1% chance
that it’s going to get to 44 then how
about I set up my pyramid like this and
say if it gets down there if it gets
below
50k then I’m just going to throw
everything I’ve got into the market if
it only gets to say you know 51 to 5
3K well then I’ll throw I don’t know 60%
of what I’ve got in if this is the low
here and it only ranges between sort of
um 56 and 59 then maybe I’ll just throw
sort of 30 40 50% in that I have and if
we don’t go back under those levels
again the market comes back and just
trades between 60 and 70k now for the
next couple of months well then I’ll
just chip in the the the remainder of my
stash on the side through this period
and I’ve talked about the length of
these periods with how long I think it’s
going to be underneath the old alltime
high we’re coming up to 2 months well
it’s 50 days so about another 10 more
days we’ll be at two months underneath
this old all-time high I suspect to be
underneath the current alltime high of
74,000 it’s going to be at least I don’t
know three months thereabouts we be two
months down if it takes a month to get
out of it I think that’ll be a pretty
quick going but you know that’s the the
quickest case I think somewhere around
that 2 to 3 months and then probably
looking more like a 4 to 6 months based
on what we have seen in the past when we
had these uh these signals here of the
three days down the Haring was there
super big hype six green months up it
was just bananas going up here so I
think that needs to cool off and it
might take maybe sort of half that time
to to I don’t know 100% of that time you
got six months up so let’s give it
around 3 to 6 months until we get back
to those tops that’s Bitcoin the risks
there trading the crash buying the exact
low that leads us on to a couple of um
quick reviews of the usdt dominance
we’ve seen the market bounce up which of
course means Bitcoin and cryptos have
gone down we’re looking for some sort of
resistance some rejection here of the
usdt dominance which could lead to more
money coming back into Bitcoin and
cryptos so far it’s come to the first
point here roughly 5 1 half% we can look
all the way up to roughly around 6 and a
half% the total cryptocurrency market
cap has also continued down but hasn’t
put in a new low yet which is what we’ve
seen in the past you see that low bounce
and then the high low start to form
continue following up here i’ would be
concerned with this if it broke under
$400
billion uh meaning that altcoins could
spend a lot longer grinding out sideways
which is very important to note when
you’re looking for the strong crypto
currencies because that could just mean
you got to wait in these things a lot
longer or they could fail and start to
break underneath previous resistance uh
support sorry which was resistance which
would then become resistance yet again
so I’ve shown this before fet or
fetch.ai strong chart pattern this has
broken above the previous resistance
throughout 2020 and 2021 2022 2023 and
this is on the Bitcoin chart so it’s got
to do a lot more work to break
higher on the Bitcoin chart than the USD
chart so that’s why I like to look at
these as opposed to only the USD charts
and this looks like a relatively strong
pattern still while it remains above
roughly around sort of two yeah 2,000
Satoshi to about 25 2600 Satoshi so
anything down to about this level still
relatively good for the bull market
still relatively strong if you see your
altcoins breaking down from those lows
that it had formed you can see a lot of
nice higher lows here that is going to
be a weak altcoin so fet at the moment
is still in a strong position yeah I
said it like a I know salana
still in a relatively strong position
yesterday had a pretty decent move up
against its BT oh so this is USD chart
it also had a decent move up uh on its
BTC chart you can see here it’s bounced
back 134 still underneath the major 50%
at
138 but Soul BTC also had a pretty good
move there and overall for this move
it’s still above the 50% and it moved
against BTC so it went High higher
against it BTC value when BTC was
falling put in a higher low and I’ve
talked about that before some strong old
coins are finding higher lows at the
moment this is what I want to see so
that’s
salana before I get to another one here
we got render also sitting above the
higher lows here the 50% levels doesn’t
mean it can’t break down and if it did
I’d be watching for somewhere around
sort of 800 Satoshi you can see that’s
where it had some resistance before so
keep watching out for that again this is
on the Bitcoin chart so you’re looking
for even stronger alt coins than the
garbage that you just see in
USD that’s three of them so far and
here’s one for you xrp no way am I
saying to buy any of these whatsoever
I’m not giving any Financial advice I’m
just looking at charts every time I’ve
hated on xrp basically you know keeps
going down down down down down those
that are in the xrp movement they sort
of see one bar up and they’re all
excited and then basically just keeps
going down but when you zoom out it’s an
absolute piece of garbage however this
has probably been one of the first times
that xrp has shown any sort of sign of
strength anything whatsoever crash down
higher lows higher lows and then the
breakout okay it’s broken past the crash
that it had in April and take xrp off
the chart doesn’t matter forget this
crap forget the price forget the name
just look at the chart pattern that is
much better now the last times I’ve been
haing on it was all of this
all of this stuff here this is all
garbage that that chart pattern looks
like like whether it was my
favorite altcoin or Bitcoin whatever
that chart pattern looks like crap and I
wouldn’t want to be getting into it this
very very very short term looks
relatively good compared to anything
that it has done in like the last
several years I mean all this is just
basically faded out anyway so I don’t
have high hopes for it may be a
short-term thing here I’ve spent a lot
of time on xap because at the end of the
day it’s a chart pattern I don’t care
about the the crypto it’s so hyped up
out there it’s ridiculous and it just
sucks a lot of newbies in so in no way
shap form am I telling anyone to go out
and buy this thing I’m just looking at
the chart pattern and giving um what is
it Jews where where Jews are Jew I don’t
know anyway you get the idea just
looking at chart patents use that
knowledge take it across put it into any
other charts you think looks strong go
back to any of the others there that
we’ve looked at over the course of our
time here on YouTube together and with
that said stay tuned like let’s go for
4,000 for the non nonsense No Nonsense
what titles and thumbnails and I’ll see
you guys back here at the next video if
for some reason the baby comes early and
I’m not online that would be the reason
why so make sure you are subscribed to
my ex that’s going to be in the link uh
in the description down below and join
us at Tia premium link to that is also
in the video description and you can
find um that in the link up here too t
crypto.com I’ll see you guys at the next
video Until then take take care and
peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, ST, market sentiment
06:50 Bitcoin, macro recession
08:00 Bitcoin, crash, trading it, risks
15:50 Altcoin trading during ‘the death’

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews