Crude Oil Could Hit $100 a barrel and What it Means for You – Mike Mauceli, Dan Kish

Crude Oil Could Hit $100 a barrel and What it Means for You – Mike Mauceli, Dan Kish

the devil’s in the details on all these
things whether it’s Russian oil
sanctions or sanctions on Iran or
sanctions on Venezuela you can say one
thing but do quite another and that’s
exactly what they’ve done my name is
Mike Meli and this is the energy show
with REI energy where we’re energizing
your Investments and maximizing your tax
deductions today we’re going to be
talking about $100 oil and you’re going
to discover how Rising Middle East risk
and increased glob demand for oil is
keeping prices High my guest today is
Dan Kish Dan is the senior vice
president of policy at The Institute of
Energy Research well Dan it’s great to
have you back on the show
again thanks Mike great to be here yeah
you know there’s a lot of information
going on out there and of course you
have a lot of investors and and other
people now looking at this potential
$100 Barrel oil and uh I guess what I
wanted to try to get across today is you
know if we do hit $100 a barrel what is
on the horizon out there that would
bring prices back down and how long do
you think it would
last yeah great question Mike
uh well you know JP Morgan and others
have now said that we could potentially
be looking at a $100 Barrel oil uh I’m a
little afraid of the uh options
available to The Bu administration
because they would do nothing uh for
enhanced domestic production uh which is
essentially uh we’re the world maker at
this point we’re the price we’re the
price maker we’re the we’re the biggest
dog in the hunt and
uh uh he’s
been pressuring on the federal side the
waters and Alaska and other
uh and the only thing available to him
at this point is the spr but
unfortunately he’s drained about half of
the spr out and the the the quality of
the oil in the
spr uh is
more is better suited for uh export to
people whose refineries are tuned to
take that stuff then the heavier cruds
that typically feed our refineries and
that our refineries are permitted for so
uh he may dip back into the spr uh but
he can’t do a run like he did last time
before the last election which was about
a quarter of a billion barrels it just
doesn’t have that accessible and easily
accessible for our refining capacity
yeah and you know that’s been their
policy all along right is they’ve been
they’ve wanted to drive all prices so
high that you know people would
eventually Embrace electric vehicles
well it looks like that’s not happening
now and of course I don’t think they
envisioned that there were going to be
several Wars around the world that you
know was going to was going to cause
price I don’t think this was the the
$100 a barrel he was looking for do you
no I I I don’t and well I don’t think so
I sometimes I can sit around wondering
whether this is all on purpose but uh uh
I won’t go there
um uh there
is the reason I say he he may go to the
spr is because he’s already we’ve heard
tough talk about Venezuela uh
reducing putting sanctions back on
Venezuela because they’ve been breaking
every uh line of the agreement that they
had with the administration
um but honestly don’t expect that uh
because it’s really the devil’s in the
details on all these things whether it’s
Russian oil sanctions or sanctions on
Iran or sanctions on
Venezuela you can say one thing but do
quite another and that’s exactly what
they’ve done I mean uh ran sanctions are
also included in the bill that pass the
Senate yesterday but they’re not going
to be enforced uh yeah essentially China
has been I just saw a chart of imports
of oil from
Malaysia and for the last six
months uh Malaysia’s been exporting more
oil to
China uh double the amount of oil to
China that they actually produce wow so
they’re getting it from somewhere and
you can all take your bets on where that
might be yeah no I agree with that and
you know I mean as far
as just you know their policies overall
and like you said there’s not enough oil
left to really affect the election or to
be able to drive prices down and if they
did Drive prices down I mean it’s only
because there’s an election year that’s
not because they want them to go down
correct correct correct because
ultimately the goal is to make it more
expensive that’s why he’s doing all the
things that he’s done I mean last week
it was 13 million Acres you can’t even
drill in a petroleum Reserve now uh up
in Alaska he he pulled 13 million Acres
out of NP I’ve been there a number of
times and uh it’s perfect place to
produce
oil uh is that that Willow project I’m
sorry said was that that Willow project
that they had approved yeah The Willow
The Willow
project the willow project uh still goes
forward although who knows what judge
might throw a wrench into that at any
point in time but it’s amazing to me to
watch the Press on that one because you
know it’s 180,000 barrels a day at
Peak uh production as planned and uh we
have we have offshore rigs in the Gulf
of Mexico that uh Gathering rigs that uh
uh have more production than that so the
idea that the greens use this is a
argument that he’s got to give us
something else because he gave away the
store in Willow is absurd U it’s not a
humongous project in the scope of things
in uh Alaska terms or in the Gulf of
Mexico
terms uh uh it it it’s not that big of a
deal they just put pressure wherever
they can and then he gives them
something else in return for the
pressure they give you so
well you know I I think a lot of people
don’t realize that we use about 22 to 23
million barrels of crude today here in
the United States and I guess worldwide
I mean we use over a 100 million barrels
a day and I think last week I read I
guess we’re producing somewhere close to
13 million barrels a day that still
means we’re importing about 37% of our
crude from from these overseas and I
guess you know since these wars have now
started going on that’s been been one of
the major drivers so if I’m an investor
and I’m trying to figure out okay well
you know price oil goes up I mean you
know as I said you know what is what is
really out there that’s going to be able
to turn it around because here in the US
I mean you know we can say drill baby
drill and all that which I’m for that
100% obviously I’m in the oil business
but you know we’re already producing at
record rate so I don’t you know if
prices go there I don’t really see
there’s a lot out there in the next
couple of years if is going to be able
to turn that ship
around uh I I think you’re absolutely
right Mike and that’s why that’s why
we’re getting these predictions of
increasing oil prices we’re looking at
demand U just reading
about Vietnam and how they’re increasing
they’re demanding more coal production
because they’re worried about
hydroelectric as and all of Asia is
worried about hydroelectric this year
uh which means they’re going to have to
burn more coal well if you’re going to
burn more coal it also means you’re
going to end up burning more oil and
natural gas to fire electric generation
which means China’s in the game which
means uh all of these things and yet you
know with with with Biden’s ban on
exports of lngg from uh the us or or a
stop to the pause
to giving licenses is going forward the
building that should be taking place
right now in order to uh meet that
demand is not taking place and of course
the people who actually produce are not
drilling the wells that they would yeah
in order to prepare the stuff for the
future this isn’t rocket science this is
just uh planning which the government
doesn’t seem to do at
all and I just want to point out that by
knowing how many barrels of oil the
world in the United States can assumes
per year as you just
demonstrated uh you ought to be the next
Secretary of
Energy I’d be making a lot more money in
the stock market
right like yeah good point I had thought
of that seems like that’s what they do
they get in there and they start trading
stocks right and they all become very
wealthy just amazing just
amazing but uh anyway yeah there’s a
there’s a lot going on around the world
right now and and a lot of stuff that
that I read in some of your articles
that that I’ve looked at I mean you talk
about the Red Sea you don’t really hear
a lot about that but I mean you know
that’s where all of the exports are
coming from right so and it seemed like
Biden and them aren’t doing a lot to
protect that are they no and and what’s
what’s most amazing about it and of
course we’ve got all this tension in the
Middle East uh going on right now that
you I try to explain to
people if you take a ship that typically
takes uh I don’t know let’s say 10 days
11 days to get to Market and now the
route it takes takes 22 days to get to
Market uh it means you have had the
ships available to move because they’re
just burning up
fuel uh you know
cruising and and that has also had a
significant impact
uh that puts upward pressure because the
the supply lines it’s like having a
pipeline uh that whose throughput is cut
in half um you’re going to get half the
oil and and these things are slowly
building up as this instability
continues uh with no end in sight so far
as I can
see so you know always have a lot of
people ask and you know what what how do
you predict what prices are going to do
or what you think prices are going to do
and you know always turn kind of to OPEC
or OPEC plus and say you know well they
may you know we we produce more oil
right now but when it comes down to it
they still control the prices I mean as
far as you know how much oil they can
deliver and and whether they’re going to
cut back on oil and so when you when you
look at some country like op I mean like
OPEC I mean where would they like to
have the price of oil at you think
I about
99.99 a barrel I think that’s roughly
their sweet spot um uh obviously you
know these these countries that live
primarily off the price of
oil um we’d like to have a sustained
they don’t want the prices too high
because that that’ll eventually hurt
demand and the economies of all the
countries that you
it
um so I think right around $100 a barrel
I think I agree with you I think that
you know when you break that $100 Barrel
Mark then people start really you know
thinking about it you know because
obviously they hear about it every day
on the news I mean as long as it stays
between that 80 and $100 a barrel I mean
you know people they don’t like it but
they can live with it right so it’s just
kind of a a point when it hits a $10000
a barrel
right right it’s a psychological point
and uh a pretty significant one so we
we we’ll see where this heads but right
now things just you know last year the
US had a a a baffo year we had we did uh
uh more increase in production to our
output um that isn’t going to happen
this year you know people have
especially on the gas side if you look
at what the
LNG prospects have done to the price of
natural gas it’s uh what is it
about I think I use
a yeah I use a reference point I mean in
terms of energy it’s about six to one
used to you used to be that uh used to
be if price of oil was $60 and and a lot
of this these gas prices were pegged to
that as well that’s been broken largely
because of the tremendous output of the
US but but if if gas is $2 the
equivalent price of oil would be $112
for the energy in for the
uh energy equivalency so you know you’re
going to use as much natural gas as you
can when the price is where it is now
and and
um and people will stop drilling it some
point you just kind of stop drilling if
it’s if it’s Associated gas that goes
with oil that’s one thing but if it’s a
strictly gas it puts downward pressure
on it that’s what they’ve done with the
LNG
PA do you think we’re going to lose
market share to some of these other
countries with LG since they can oh yeah
I
mean they’ve
already gutter has already announced uh
increases in in um investment in in more
export facilities you’ve got uh the UAE
is talking about it everybody’s looking
to fill the Gap left by indecision here
in the United States yeah it’s just
amazing how
that you know how incompetent some of
these people are we have in government
but like you said it’s it’s probably all
planned I mean I’m sure they’re not that
stupid it’s just that that’s the
policies they have
right well and you know ultimately their
goal remains the same as the president
stated four years ago when he was
running which is to end the use of
fossil fuels and you know sometimes you
have to believe what they
say
uh I agree with other times you could
take it or leave it but you know well
you know we were talking about the s spr
and uh you know Biden recently came out
and says he’s not going to refill it now
because prices are too
high so I mean is that uh is I mean is
that all planned or is basically you
know he doesn’t want to ra cause prices
to go higher
right yeah well he’s in a he’s in a box
uh uh the prices have been lifting
because of these
geopolitical things that have been
happening and uh they had plans to buy 3
million here and 5 million there and the
like but they’ve had to put a halt to it
because the pric is crept up above their
acceptable price
but you know back when the price of oil
actually went negative we were at 20
bucks a barrel for a while uh during
covid uh we had an opportunity to fill
that sppr which would have helped our
domestic producers by by giving them a
market to yeah produce that oil and we
would have gotten it on the cheap now
now it’s four times as expensive as we
were talking about buying it at the time
so I think Trump filled it up during
covid right when prices were down to 20
or $30 a barrel he tried to uh he tried
to uh Senator Schumer in from New York
uh stopped him from doing so oh wow uh
saying that it was a give away to
Industry so um actually it was a
giveaway to the American public now in
hindsight but hindsight’s 2020 and uh
there’s a lot of hindsight that goes on
in Washington
yeah you know I agree with that and uh
so when you look at kind of where we are
today right I mean as far as that where
prices are and um you know where the
administration is going of course we’re
in an election year so I mean obviously
they’re all pro oil now as far as trying
to get prices down but once if they do
get reelected I mean you know we’re
going to see some pretty hard times in
the US regarding energy going forward
aren’t
we oh I don’t think huh I think people
will be absolutely would be absolutely
shocked the at
the
um at the plans they have in place I
mean there was of talk this week U and
last week about possible Declaration of
climate emergency which would give them
the sorts of powers that they had during
covid right um which could literally for
example I mean it could include such
things as uh shutting down exports of uh
oil from the United States and and as
you know
Mike it’s kind of hard to
explain on a bar stool or something but
uh uh when people are talking about this
but the truth of the matter is we get
increased deficiencies by exporting
grades of oil that we that aren’t
suitable for our refineries right the
sort of stuff that we’ve actually got in
our right now and and importing from
Canada and from uh uh from other places
uh oil that’s more suited to ours and
the same for them everybody benefits
that’s that’s
how that’s how the system is supposed to
work when you trade things uh people are
supposed to benefit based on the value
of the various things so a lot of people
don’t realize our our refineries are set
up to process heavy crude right or
heavier crude and then of course when we
get crude like from the bach in up in
North Dakota which is a very high
gravity crude or very light crude you
know you have to mix that with these
heavier sulfur enrich cruds to you know
obviously to refiner to refine it
correct exactly and all that costs money
and reduces efficiencies and all the
rest so so ideally you get sources of
oil that uh that meet your meet and and
of course the next logical question is
well why don’t you just change the
refineries well given the way the EPA
looks at these things today you can
imagine what it would be like trying to
get a permit to change your Refinery to
take this other oil despite the fact
that over the long run they’ basically
treated as a totally new unit under
something called
uh
uh the uh what’s it called NPS I think
or
NPR
uh they treated as though it were a new
Refinery even though you were just
simply adjusting the way the refinery
works and that of course would uh entail
years and years of uncertainty about
whether or not you can make the changes
anyway and billions of dollars while
you’re waiting so yeah’s who’s going to
want to commit 10 billion dollars to you
know when they don’t even know who’s
going to be in charge and what their
policies are going to be I mean it’s
it’s it’s kind of ludicrous for a
company to go out there and try to
invest that type of money or make that
type of commitment cuz like you’re
saying it may be 10 years down the road
before they even get a per
right right and and and that’s been the
Dilemma the the head of Chevron earlier
this year said that he didn’t see any
new refineries being built in the United
States um because nobody’s going to lay
out the money in the exposure when
you’ve got such political uncertainty I
mean you you’ve got basically people
trying to put you out of business and
you go to them and ask for a permit what
do you think the chances are
yeah well I think in the long run I
think that uh you know prices are going
to stay high I I don’t see anything like
you I’m like you out there on the
horizon that that believes that they’re
going to go down uh you know even if we
started drilling tomorrow is as you were
saying a little bit earlier I mean it
takes planning if you’re going to try to
implement you know a lot of lot more
Rigs and and and produce a lot more o
now there is new technology coming about
you know in the I think I was reading
where Exxon they’re saying they
developed a new fracking Tech technology
where uh they’re able to go in and
refract some of these older Wells for
you know a couple of million dollars
where compared to a a new well you know
it’s obviously $9 million but they claim
they can get as much oil out of an older
well as they could a new and I know you
know us being up in the baching I mean
you know we participated in a lot of
Wells up there and there’s companies up
there that are doing two to 300 refracts
this year so you know that technology is
is starting to to move forward so I
think that from that standpoint of it I
think we can see you know more oil
coming into the market but again with us
only producing 13 million barrels a day
we’re certainly not going to change the
prices right even if we can produce more
here in the United States right I’m I
you know I don’t know I’ve shared this
before but we looked at the uh
production increases
uh the United states by itself between
2010 and
2019
increased the the marginal increase in
oil production in the world we were 81%
of it wow and when you and when you add
when you add Canada to that another 9%
it’s 90% so North
America supplied 90% of the marginal
World oil inc can you imagine what the
price of oil would be in the absence of
that fracing technology and the The
Blood Sweat and Tears uh and a lot of
work that went into it by Americans on
the
ground um and and this all comes from a
country in which we’ve drilled more
Welles in the United States
yeah than the entire rest of the world
combined since the first well in
Titusville back in
1857 and so you would think that you
know this thing has been plugged so
much that uh we would have gotten every
last drop out of it that’s the theory
from people who know little about
geology and the rest but in reality we
just keep finding more and uh we’re
about to release fairly
soon an the inventory of what those
numbers look like how many years of oil
based on the government’s own estimates
of how much is there and how much is
producible uh be produced and they are
stunning
stunning um we’re not we’re not running
out of oil we we’re running out of
political will to allow Americans
benefit from it well you said it right
there I mean you know we we seem to be
technology continues to improve and you
know America is always at the Forefront
of pushing that technology forward for
the rest of the world and yet we’ve got
politicians that you know obviously I
you know whatever the fact is whether
they’re getting paid off or or they just
you know or believe all this climate
stuff that they’re talking about I mean
it’s it’s it’s just ridiculous well Dan
I it’s great having you on the show
today can you tell our listeners how to
follow you sure uh the the best way is
institutefor energy
research.org all right well I’d love to
have you back again in the future when
you release that report thank you thanks
this podcast is a presentation of Rich
Dad media Network
[Music]

In this episode of the Energy Show with REI Energy, host Mike Mauceli discusses the complexities and geopolitics affecting oil prices, particularly the potential of hitting $100 per barrel oil. Guest Dan Kish, Senior Vice President of Policy at the Institute of Energy Research, explores factors driving high oil prices including Middle East risk, global demand, and U.S. energy policies.

Mauceli and Kish scrutinize sanctions on countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) status, domestic production challenges, and the Biden administration’s stance on energy. The discussion also touches on the impact of electric vehicle policies, the reality of oil exports and imports, and the role of emerging technologies in fracking. Kish predicts sustained high oil prices and critiques U.S. government strategies around energy production and refinery capabilities, providing a comprehensive insight into the current and future state of energy policies and market trends.

00:00 Introduction
00:22 Exploring the Impact of $100 Oil
02:03 The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Dilemma
07:31 Investment Insights and the Future of Oil Prices
22:21 Technological Advances in Oil Production
25:01 Concluding Thoughts and Future Predictions

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or engage in any financial activity.

The content presented here is based on the speaker’s personal opinions and research, which may not always be accurate or up-to-date. Financial markets and investments carry inherent risks, and individuals should conduct their own research and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.