The Hidden War! Nord Stream: Ukraine, Russia, or the U.S.? | Peter Zeihan

The Hidden War! Nord Stream: Ukraine, Russia, or the U.S.? | Peter Zeihan

uh obviously that would not be great
from a PR point of view but it would
demonstrate a couple of things number
one uh that the ukrainians are perfectly
capable and willing of carrying out extr
territorial attacks we’ve already seen
that in several places in Ukraine of
late so from a military point of view
you got to give them some credit from a
diplomatic point of view the idea that
the ukrainians would have removed from
contention the single largest energy
artery on the planet and one that the
Germans in particular depended
upon something that we know is that the
swedes know who did this but they have
not said so out loud now I’ve always
thought because it’s the swedes that the
reason they did this is because if you
accuse the Russians publicly with proof
of doing the attack then everyone in
Europe has to admit that the Russians
have deliberately destroyed uh European
energy infrastructure and that means you
have to cut off all ties overnight and
the swedes want to make sure Europe has
enough time to disengage itself from
Russia so it doesn’t cause a permanent
depression but let’s say this swedes
know that it was the ukrainians well the
swedes have already told all their
allies what they know it’s it’s known at
the top and we haven’t had to change a
policy out of Europe so if it was the
ukrainians there’s going to be a lot of
uncomfortable conversations to had be
had publicly but all of those
conversations have already been had
privately and it didn’t change the math
of the War uh in the aftermath of things
like IIM and bcha we had a crystall
crystallization in Europe um most
European leaders have visited The
Killing Fields of bcha personally
including the Germans and so the idea
that uh economics can Trump the war at
this point I think we’ve moved past that
uh me personally I still have no idea uh
it doesn’t make sense for the Russians
to have blown up their own pipeline
because that was their single largest
energy link and their single largest um
leverage against the Germans early in
the war and it doesn’t make sense for
the Americans to done it uh not that we
lack the capability and the Germans and
the Russians had that too but if you go
back to September 1st of last year
that’s when the Russians turned
nordstream off and they publicly told
the Germans that you now have to choose
you can either have the energy from us
and still be modern but the cost of that
is you have to stab Ukraine in the
back or we just leave it off and you
de-industrialized which is something
we’re seeing right now and people forget
that the German
chose to side with Ukraine they chose to
risk de-industrialization and the
destruction of their social and economic
model in order to remain Western I don’t
think they get enough credit for that
and so from the American point of view
we were getting ready a really big
hammer because we thought the Germans
were going to go the other Direction
when they didn’t we’re like oh we’ll
just put that down and then two weeks
later the pipeline was blown up so from
an American point of view we got
everything that we wanted without having
to do anything doesn’t make a lot of
sense for us to then blow it up um my
personal Theory I think and it holds up
a little bit better but it’s just a
theory is that Russia’s gas prom did it
now gas prom is Russia’s natural gas
Monopoly the decision to shut off
nordstream was made by the Kremlin it
was a political decision and the way the
contracts read for supply to the Germans
is if the Russians shut off nordstream
for any appreciable amount of time they
have to supply compensation to the
Germans for the natural gas that was not
shipped and they have to do it at spot
market prices which in the aftermath of
September one shut off were seven times
what they were before and so gas prom
was looking down the barrel of a
six-week period that would take every
single cent of their profits for an
entire year so my guess is they blew up
their own pipeline in order to trigger
Force majure but that’s just a theory
okay that was all the second part of
that what was the first part how long
can the Russians maintain the financial
coherence in the light of all the
sanctions is that what it was yes okay
uh Russia sell Cates National privation
so this isn’t Argentina this isn’t even
turkey this is a country that Prides
itself on its ability to suffer so you
have to do a lot of punishment in Russia
before you hit a breaking point and I
don’t think we’re anywhere close to that
right now also I was wrong uh we haven’t
seen disruptions out of the pipeline
system so far um no one has blown up
deliberately the pipelines that cross
Ukraine oh by the way that’s one reason
why I don’t think it was the ukrainians
that did it because they have access to
oil natural gas pipelines that across
their country that are still operational
that they haven’t blown up
um and we haven’t had a problem with
insurance yet uh there hasn’t been a
single attack by any sovereign state on
any Russian tanker even though they’re
flowing by Ukraine and flowing by all
the NATO countries on their way to India
and China and Indian and Chinese
insurance has stepped into the Gap to
ensure the C Ure coverage for the
shipments we haven’t had a single
incident where any of that has been
called into a question yet which
honestly is really really weird because
we normally have several incidents a
year across the world where shipping
insurance has to pay out so all these
replacement insurance systems haven’t
had to yet which is just really strange
so I stand by the forecast that this
stuff is still incredibly fragile but
I’m very surprised and have been wrong
that it hasn’t happened yet uh but let
me layer one more concern into that
Russia is still getting income from its
energy exports but you have to think
about where the stuff is um this is a
picture of central Siberia uh it’s
permafrost now in the South I realize
that this is a completely alien concept
so just bear with me a little bit uh
permafrost is in a territory where it’s
so cold that the subsoil never thaws at
all so you go down somewhere between
five and 30 feet and you hit a frozen
layer and Ice doesn’t drain so in the
summer when things heat up the top layer
melts and you get these Horizon SP
standing bogs if you want to produce
materials in this environment what you
do is you wait for the land to freeze
and you bring out an a large army of
dump trucks with filled with gravel sand
and Aggregate and you build burm roads
out to a production site which are those
roads that you see going off to the
right you then build a drill pad and
drill in The Frozen Ground through the
permafrost uh down to whatever the
deposit is that you’re
after this is the highest production
cost and the highest maintenance cost
for any energy production in the world
it’s higher than it is for most deep
water here’s the problem permafrost
isn’t just difficult to develop and
maintain it the landscape also shifts so
if you get a break a fissure where the
land can drain in those summer months
you get a slip like this or you can get
a situation where it drains down instead
of laterally and you get a sinkhole and
I put some people up there at the top
you could see the scale or you get a
situation where you get a hotter melt
one year and some of the Perma Frost
actually does melt not all the way down
but some of it and in that scenario you
get trapped rotted swamp vegetation that
is very methane rich and the methane
gets released and you get a bubble that
disrupts the landscape now these things
happen in Russia all the time and they
disrupt the BM roads and the pipelines
here’s the problem the Russian
educational system colle csed back in
1986 so the youngest Suite of people who
have the full Suite of technical skills
to do things like pipeline maintenance
they turned 60 this year most of the new
oil and natural gas that has come out of
Russia in the last 15 to 20 years hasn’t
the work hasn’t been done by Russians
it’s done by westerners and they’re not
doing it anymore so even if the
ukrainians don’t blow up infrastructure
even if there’s no shipping or insurance
issue
maintenance question is going to kill
pretty much all Russian permafrost
production anyway that’s two-thirds of
the total it’s just a question of it
happens tomorrow or 10 years from now
and I don’t have a prediction for that
because that’s that’s weather that’s not
just geology that’s surface geology but
we know it’s going to happen sooner or
later and we know the Russians have lack
the capacity to maintain this system
without extensive outside help but that
doesn’t mean it’s going to happen
tomorrow
fore foree
[Music]

The Hidden War! Nord Stream: Ukraine, Russia, or the U.S.? | Peter Zeihan

In this insightful analysis, we delve into the complexities of international relations and energy politics focusing on the Nord Stream pipeline incident and its broader geopolitical implications. The discussion covers the strategic moves by various nations, including Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and Germany, and evaluates their potential motives and impacts on global energy dynamics. The video also explores the resilience of Russian society to sanctions and the technical challenges faced by Russia in maintaining its permafrost energy infrastructure, providing a nuanced perspective on the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic dependencies that shape global politics today.

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Source:
What in the World is Happening? A Fireside Chat with a Geopolitics Expert, Peter Zeihan

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