“Everyone Is SO WRONG About The Bitcoin Halving” Mark Yusko Prediction

“Everyone Is SO WRONG About The Bitcoin Halving” Mark Yusko Prediction

the history tells us that the you know 12 months following the the having are the the hyperbolic move cycle and that that that makes sense right just logically what does the having do well it it cuts the supply of block rewards that pay the miners for securing the network so if the miners costs are relatively fixed and their revenue goes down in theory a whole bunch of them would go away unless the price were to move I think it’s one of the most ingenious parts of the code and there’s a lot of ingenious parts to the code but the fact is in every previous having basically what happens is the fair value of the network doubles now there is one Nuance this time and you know I don’t know if you’ve been following it very closely but you know there’s the whole uh development of ordinals a year plus go and now as of the having there was this uh development of of runes basically meme coins or the the technology to do mem coins on on bitcoin and you know everybody’s talking about it and some people hate it and some people love it the reality is what it does is it generates a lot of transaction fees yep and transaction fees also reward the minor so I think this time instead of the you know fair value today Tim Peterson would tell you somewhere in the low 50s I’ll even round down to be conservative to 50 normally in a in a having that goes to 100 uh but let’s say this time it only goes to 80 because the transaction fee Offset you know that’s just that’s that’s madeup math but but it sounds it sounds right and then in a normal cycle we go to 2.3x fair value because of the fomo and all the momentum and The Leverage but I think Leverage is lower this time so 200 do we get to 150 yeah I think we get fair value is 80 and we uh you know two and a half exit we we get to 200 I think we double this time so so let’s say 150 160 and that would be by April May of [Music] 25 as Mark yuso highlighted the having is a crucial event where the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half fundamentally altering the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market history has shown us that the periods following past havingsex rise in bitcoin’s price despite the having which normally would double the fair value of the network the addition of transaction fees might adjust these expectations slightly instead instead of doubling we might see a more conservative increase in value perhaps up to 80% according to experts like Tim Peterson but even with these changes the fundamentals of supply and demand remain with miners receiving less for their efforts the scarcity of Bitcoin increases which historically has led to a rise in price as demand continues or increases don’t forget to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell for more indepth analysis and expert insights here at unscripted crypto this is going to be the best Thanksgiving ever right no more you’re not welcome because you’re a crypto person in the family people are going to be like oh come on come on come it’s going to be awesome and people are going to celebrate the the crypto people in the family this year and so if that fomo period is like the previous two where from November to December you know yeah go up orders of magnitude I mean remember we went from 10,000 to 20,000 in eight weeks and very quickly to 42 once we eventually broke it the next time yeah right I mean with the with the Elon Musk buying Tesla news I think sent it to 40 that time in that cycle here’s so we have the fouryear cycle it’s been reliable the having has been reliable doesn’t mean it will happen this time there is a few other differences besides the transaction feas you mentioned obviously we’ve preempted the having with an all-time high which we’ve never done before and this time I think the having when you actually look at how much Supply is reduced in dollar terms relative to the amount of volume we’re getting from ETFs and other factors is minimal right I mean you’re talking about a few billion dollars in Supply reduced over the period of a year which now becomes uh you know 10 days of outflows in gbtc right or or like a days buying on ibit it’s a really important point right you know there there are multiple factors in markets and and the biggest one really is supply and demand you know basic econ 101 and we had a a pretty significant demand shift and it hasn’t fully played out in fact it hasn’t even come close to fully playing out the the math that that always amazes me I believe in the next 12 months is so we’re a couple months you know about three months into the ETF and and we’ve gotten about 10% of what I believe is coming into this space from the the registered investment advisers that control all the Boomer cash so the Boomers have 30 odd trillion with these financial advisors not all of them will M UBS still hasn’t said I can buy GB ibit in my in my account right it’s my money my account I can’t buy it because they know it’s good for me Vanguard same thing so there’s going to be 300 billion I believe that’s 1% of 30 trillion that comes in to this space Scott that’s actually more money than has ever converted to Bitcoin in 15 years that’s a pretty amazing thing because what people forget is that multiplier effect of the bid ask right I convert some out into Bitcoin but then I don’t want to sell it so someone’s got to bid a higher price to get me to to sell and so you get that multip now I don’t think the multiplier is whatever Bank of America says 118 yeah when when we were talking pennies or dollars or $10 or $20 the multiplier was really really big today I’m gonna say the multipliers probably more like 20ish you know so 300 billion would add 6 trillion of market cap here’s the crazy thing in people’s 41k they set the allocation on the day they start their job and they choose one overx so if there are seven choices they put one 7th in each and they never change and they never rebalance not ever so people putting this in there 4 when I mean not the 401K in their retirement account their Ira it’s over and it’s your point they’re not going to stare at it they’re not going to look at it and this idea that number go up that’s not the point the point is the utility is going to continue to go up the embracing of the technology is going to continue to go up and at the end of the day it is a finite asset people say well you know that Satoshi could show up and and add more no J Jameson Lop showed us the lines of code that prohibit that it’s like five lines by the way it’s five lines of code prevent that entire narrative but yeah and and the thing is fine could 51% of the participants change that sure but the likelihood of that happening is is really low and the reason behind it why it might happen could be really interesting so it’s kind of like a stock split but all that aside the demand for blockchain technology of which Bitcoin is a blockchain Al I love this whole debate right Bitcoin not blockchain blockin they they’re the same thing right we have the Bitcoin Network that is a blockchain network and the Bitcoin token which secures the network through block rewards I don’t know why we debate this I just makes no sense to me Mark yuso gave us a glimpse into a future where being a crypto person at the family Thanksgiving isn’t just accepted but celebrated this shift in perception is critical as it reflects broader acceptance and integration of crypto into everyday life but what’s more intriguing is how this social change intersects with market dynamics consider the previous Cycles Mark mentioned where rapid price increases followed the having events and major corporate buy-ins like Tesla’s significant investment in Bitcoin these are not just Market movements they’re societal events that draw new participants into the market and as this cycle continues we’re seeing new elements play a role such as the influence of ETFs and institutional money flowing from registered investment advisors controlling Boomer cash this isn’t just about young Tech enthusiasts anymore it’s about serious traditional Financial Capital moving into crypto the potential influx of $300 billion into cryptocurrencies could be transformative increasing the market cap exponentially this influx is driven by both the financial mechanics and the growing utility and acceptance of the technology in essence while the mechanics of supply and demand dictate short-term price movements the long-term value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will likely be shaped by their acceptance into mainstream finance and Society thanks for watching and we’ll see you in the next video

“Everyone Is SO WRONG About The Bitcoin Halving” Mark Yusko Prediction

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In this episode of Unscripted Crypto, we delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s halving cycles with insights from crypto expert Mark Yusko. We explore how the halving impacts Bitcoin’s supply and potentially its price, highlighting the innovative changes in the network, such as the introduction of ordinals and runes, and their effect on transaction fees and miner revenue. Mark discusses the unique circumstances of this cycle and speculates on possible market outcomes. We also examine the broader societal and market dynamics at play, including the influence of institutional investors and the influx of retirement account funds into crypto. Join us as we unpack the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency and its increasing acceptance and utility. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and click the bell for more insightful content!

About Mark Yusko:
Mark Yusko is the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, a role he has held since founding the firm in 2004. He is renowned for his investment strategies, particularly in the areas of endowments, foundations, pensions, and wealthy individual investors. Before Morgan Creek, Yusko was the CIO and founder of UNC Management Company, the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. With a career that spans over three decades, Yusko is a well-respected figure in the investment community, recognized for his forward-looking investment philosophy and his contributions to discussions on cryptocurrencies and the future of finance.

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