Bitcoin low coming, don’t trust the narratives – here’s the data

Bitcoin low coming, don’t trust the narratives – here’s the data

the big question where is this bottom coming in for Bitcoin I’ve got a data heavy video for you guys today plus a look at some of the strong altcoins which are putting in higher lows while Bitcoin struggles now we’re got to get through the macro update as well what else would you expect it’s your home of macro cycle analysis covering Bitcoin stocks crypto and this real estate cycle got it all in there thanks again for your support with the noons titles and thumbnails much appreciated smashing up the likes hitting that 4,000 level yet again views are a little down but I suspect that’s because of the market the market being down and as we know many people leave and don’t come back until it gets exciting again nonetheless you know the deal links in the video description I’ll discuss that later let’s kick it off with the macro update here the traditional markets this is the predictions from from the market this is your interest rates at the top here and we’re started to see a shift to the left again so many are anticipating a cut coming up sooner rather than later and I suspect that with how easily it was to shift to the left I don’t think we’ve got these Cuts coming up so that was my theory at the beginning of the year it says the 15th of January here I was not expecting all of these rate Cuts if you can just see in the blue that suggests that there was going to be rate Cuts every single meeting uh that we were going to get down to like 3 and 3/4% no way in hell that’s going to happen with interest uh sorry with um asset prices increasing real estate increasing you name it everything is going up they’re not cutting interest rates they have to increase the interest rates to curb all of that inflation and prices rising plenty to be discussed on that but we’ve talked about it in many many videos which is why I suggest subscribing to the channel so we don’t have to go through it in every single video let’s move on to the stock markets we’ve seen a slight bounce here at the 50% level so there was a rejection on Monday uh this week and now we’ seeing a bounce off the shorter term 50% so overall this still seems like the grind that we’re anticipating for the election year the seasonal pattern here in this sort of what second quarter of the Year where essentially we’re not really putting in any new prices and we’re not really going to uh break down into some sort of collapse which I guess people are still anticipating but it’s essentially a grind we’ve gone up really strong we’ve had a pullback back and now we need to find our feed again just flushing out some of the the fear uh some I guess are taking profits from that huge runup of the last five months which tends to lead to more upside S&P 500 femon winning streak ends and it has to end to get the reading you need to go through the five months up and then the month correction so you can see here in April we had that correction the swing chart has turned it’s been a red month it’s a Down month the five green months has now ended but what does that mean with the data S&P 500 Index closed higher every month from November five-month winning streak tends to be bullish for stocks in the future especially if the femon gain is 25% or more I believe they were looking at uh that being the 25% yeah so low to high 28 possibly measuring it from closes nonetheless it has been a 25% here but with April closing with a monthly loss the latest winning streak is over so what does that look like when it comes to the data these are all the data points going back to the 1920s yes there is an upwards bias for the stock market which is why I think it’s really ridiculous to keep calling and collapse every single year because you’re essentially right one out of 10 years and that’s no way to be trading in the markets it’s it’s absolutely ridiculous anyway looking at all these data points 3 months from now 6 months from now 12 months from now you end up with 70 to 90% hit rate of a higher price for the S&P 500 so that’s all going to be good news for the rest of the markets uh you got the S&P here the the NASDAQ is also doing similar things you got a huge winning streak a pullback potential grind here we’ve looked at the weekly signal as well so I know I’m bringing in just another quick signal here three red uh we look to a rally and then another test to the downside so that’s looking at the I guess medium term when you try and layer it in with the longer term here we’ve got that correction and 3 6 12 months from now probably going to see higher prices than where we are that’s just looking at the data of course we can’t guarantee anything because no one knows what’s going to happen on the black side of the chart we’re just looking at the probabilities and suggesting that well it seems like from history we’re probably going to see higher prices rather than lower prices the US dollar as it has failed again on the daily chart here it’s finally broken down from these lows early days still above the 50% here at 105.2 if it’s able to find support here maybe it goes on one more attempt to the upside to the upside you’ve still got the resistance at 107 and the reason we’re looking at the the US dollar typically when this is weak you’ll see more strength for the assets and of course our main interest here is Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies so US dollar is playing a pivotal role here for Bitcoin and cryptos for now it’s on the the decline for the last couple of days that leads me over to bitcoin and what happened yesterday well we finally got a bounce but of course you tend to see bounces after pretty significant moves to the downside so I’m not taking any prizes for that one there the 50% level above oh roughly 62k there it is 61,800 to be exact and my white line is really the area that I’m looking out for for BTC to get back above to essentially consolidate and say to the market there’s going to going to be less time underneath the alltime high than if it was to fail here and then continue down which will then lead me in a moment to the monthly data so I want to have a look at this monthly data and those lows coming in so just for your shortterm pretty significant resistance around 60 to $62,000 if you can get back above that I’d say that invalidates any more downside at least for the short term and if it can hold above those levels then it’s looking much better to be able to break to high prices so for me keeping 62 625,000 on the screen is the important level right now so in terms of the narratives this one here we’ve seen the largest net outflows of uh ETFs in history so the main thing I’m bringing up here of course is always the damn narratives The Narrative at the peak was that we’re probably going to see $100,000 before the harving why well the supply is going to be cut in half what does that matter well there’s so many people buying ETFs there so there’s all black rock and Fidelity and you name it Arc is buying Bitcoin they’ll never let the price go down there the same that we heard in the last cycle where they were saying well the price will never go down because Michael sailor’s average price was $30,000 they’ll never let it go below that it’s just nonsense every time and now a lot of those people who were talking about that at the Peaks which I see in the comments section where are they they disappear every single time they’re here as if they are experts and then as soon as the opposite happens maybe it takes a month in this case it took 6 weeks they disappear and it happens every single time I guarantee as I guaranteed last time this is something I can’t guarantee we will see it again there will be some sort of narrative that tries to disguise the fact that there’s going to be another top same as there is at the bottoms there’s always some narrative like there was November 22 there was the FTX collapse Bitcoin collapsed into this low and it was essentially said that it was not going to come back TX collapsed it it was it was done D5 collapse lunar collapse um and then we had the banking crisis here as well so it’s the same thing at every single major turn which allows you to see a little bit clearer the major turns themselves even though they can take a fair bit of time and yeah that was early March into mid-march where we had this peak it just didn’t feel and seem like when it comes to the data itself and of course there’s the feeling with the market sentiment you can’t get away from that you’re Human After All that um it’s probably not the greatest time to be getting in when everyone else thinks it’s the greatest time to be getting in now we are down 24% from the top these are the sort of things that I’m starting to hear you know it’s over the top could be in maybe it’s a left translated cycle inflation’s Rising which some people see as a bearish narrative and some people see as a bullish narrative you know if inflation Rises and asset price is going to go up or if inflation Rises no one can afford anything so every everyone’s going to have to sell everything stock markets are going to collapse heard that many many times now because this has been the biggest pullback and yeah we’re probably going to hear it even more and the old you know you just wait essentially I guess I’m saying you just wait and it takes time but in terms of a risk reward for a trade it did not seem like a great time in early March even in late February so take it for what you will use it in your analysis don’t use it up to you U essentially we’ve looked at the shortterm this is the the narrative stuff that I just really want to warn people about especially when it’s not so hot at the moment cuz In the Heat of the Moment it’s very easy to forget about what happened last time there’ll be a different narrative you can bet your bottom dollar so the narrative is something that we’ll definitely come back to for now let’s get on with the monthly data now this is the new Tia indicators Suite it is coming out still got a little bit of time we’re still building it in the background um there’s plenty of predictive tables that are also coming out on this but if you do want to be notified when it’s ready I suggest subscribing to the free weekly report link is in the top of the video description and when that’s out we’ll email everyone to let them know about the uh the new Tia indicator Suite now what I’m using this for is the monthly returns and it’s going to look a little this is great to see it in terms of colors and just a quick glance but I like to look at it on the chart as well so we’ve got months in a row here you’ve got we had six green months in a row and then it was broken by that first red month in April which was essentially down 15% for the month we’re in to may now two potentially two red months we’re only two days in so maybe not but I want to see what happens after six red uh sorry six green months or more in a row what typically happens in those coming months in those following months so we got that to look at this was the data we looked at to identify the possibility of this being a peak in March which has now been confirmed March is the peak no more question mark at the end of this that is a turn monthly swing has now turned down and because April was an inside month on some charts and on others it wasn’t uh essentially we’re now two months down because May has broken the low of April even if May closes up as long as it doesn’t CL High close higher than April it would still be a down month because it has a lower high and a lower low sry if it didn’t go higher than April’s High more on that later so that means this data can now change and I’ll have to update this later we have 6 months or more I think that’s in the nine so we’ll change that and then in terms of five months or more um five months in a row or of more per cycle so basically five months swings how many of those do we have per cycle now we definitely have one for this cycle and the Cycle’s still ongoing so I’m going to leave the asteris there so we can continue to update that so that’s these swings here that helped us with this this top coming in because a lot still thought oh we could still go up to 70 uh sorry 100 whatever $1,000 didn’t happen Okay so what I’ve got next is the low here are these monthly turns here May’s June September you can see I’ve just pinpointed basically all of the monthly swing lows using the Tia G swing indicator which is also part of Tia indicator Suite coming up now the point of this is to figure out where the next low might come in so I’ve got my data here and I’ve got my monthly swing bottoms here how many swing bottoms have we seen per month January February March April May June July and as you can see I always like that there’s my name Jason um essentially I don’t know Dad joke the data shows pretty much evenly spread across the board except for May and June which is a bit of a pain in the ass because we’re in May and next month will be June and the pain in the ass to that is when we look at six months or more uh six or more months in a swing which is what we had to the upside here March was the end we have five data points which are the Red Arrows you can see 1 2 3 4 this is our fifth one uh no there’s another one here sorry there’s the five and we’re into our sixth one so we can’t use the sixth one yet because it has not been completed how many months correction has there been not uh green months or red months just how many months in that swing okay so when we look at this this one this one this one and this one there’s been two months down so if I take that away you can see two months even though there are three red months there’s two months in that swing to the downside of lower highs lower lows so now you understand that let’s move on you’ve got six months in this one you’ve got one month here you’ve got two months here and you’ve got another 3 months here even though that one was green there’s two red months and then where does that go 3 months low so you had lower highs lower lows for three months so shorter than one month so how how long is this going to take could it be shorter than one month well not now because we’ve got two months down um but the data had showed that it was only going to be a 20% chance that it was going to be one month or less which means there’s an 80% chance it’s going to be longer than one month okay well there go it’s happened we got May two months down it’s working towards the probabilities yet again it wasn’t going to be one month down it’s now into the two months so what else can we use from this I want to have a look at um red and green months with in those swings you’ve got three red months here three red months there then there was a green month and then from this one well the market ran up from there for that last move so you got three in this um I’ll come back to this in just a sec this move here you just had two red months and then it turned in this one here was just one basically within one so basically a zero because it didn’t even complete a whole month this one you had two and then a green and that was it so maybe this is it maybe this is the last month typically you’ve only really seen two except for this one here that one there was the big move up and then the big pullback oh and this one here but that was almost an equal month at the top and two red down so that hasn’t given us too much to work with either because we are into that second month so I guess you could look at it like well this could be the low although there’s never been a low in May a monthly swing low that is why not start now and then doesn’t happen in June there’s just more probability of it happening in June so maybe May isn’t the final swing we run up we come back down and then June has the final low we don’t know yet we don’t know yet but the main thing that I want to look at is the grind sideways so in these last two uh grinds here these basically trading ranges of 2016 you had five months across but I’m using this as a a potential turning point I did not count it in the data because it doesn’t technically meet the reading of a swing but that was the biggest correction into January and it was a red month and then basically had a smaller trading range and then it it climbed out of that so 5 months underneath the top so that would be 5 months underneath the March top 2 months down and essentially 30 to 40% correction so we’ve almost met all of those uh readings here where we’re almost at that two months down completed we’re at 235% so not far to go to get to the 30% and if it was if that was to be the low and then grind out for the next few months well five months from March is roughly about August where you might get that that move out into a new Fresh High which would be Sometime Late summer for the the nor northern hemisphere what happened in the next one two months down again roughly about 5 months until it broke out to the new all-time high and you know the market ran on from there to to to finish off that particular cycle I’m kind of liking the possibility of anywhere around here May June quarter two potential for that low but I don’t think from just looking at the previous history that we’re just going to shoot up to a new Fresh high things can change strength could come straight back into that market that’s absolutely okay I’m just looking at the data for now and I will change my analysis as more data comes through we have to do that we can’t essentially just sit here and and base it all off this and say well it’s going to be two months down it’s going to go sideway for exactly 5 months and then it’s going to break out remember nothing is exact it just Rhymes so we’re just looking at this to give us the next stage of that rhyme and so far that is telling us quarter two potential for the low and then quarter three potential to break out of this sideways grind so I’m going to come back to this data in future videos but this is essentially the recap the mini lesson of all of the data that we have here so if we talk about it in future videos rather than me go through another 10minute explanation this is what we are referring to all of these points here which now leads me to altcoins that’s another little reminder there thanks to the iMovie here hit that like button 4,000 let’s do it all coins we’ve seen this low talked about in yesterday’s video a reminder here we’re looking at 400 100 billion as that support point for altcoins you can see the nice move up the nice correction took four weeks and another couple of weeks we still haven’t put in a lower low yet maybe we don’t and we continue with the higher low which is putting more strength into some altcoins I’ve got the the crowd favorite here salana many red weeks down and so far has put in just a slightly lower low and pushed a little higher now if you were to see this close above that sort of 138 140 level that’s going to start to put a little bit more strength into this altcoin because it is putting in a higher low provided it doesn’t break down from these lows now you’ve got the 50% at 109 and those lows roughly around uh I don’t know 115 120 that is going to be a pretty strong base if it started to break down from that throw this thing into the neutrals which could potentially fall into the week that would be the weak point underneath 80 uh 80 bucks now if it remained above here that’s going to be into one of the strong old coins which I guess i’ mentioned back in April the look of the higher lows beginning to form if this double bottom is to hold you’d want to see it back above 140 and consolidate above uh 140 bucks that’s going to show that there is some strength in the background here it is throwing up higher lows and if you look at it against its BTC value there is a nice higher low there against BTC it’s a little way off the 50% here at 200 57,000 Satoshi but nonetheless nice higher lows forming across the board for some of these altcoins while Bitcoin continues to struggle so keep that on your charts watch how this these markets um show strength against their BTC values and that’s going to set you up for some pretty good altcoins in this next altcoin season wherever that may be which potentially comes in the second half of 2024 should Bitcoin and cryptos play ball similarly not exactly but similarly to what they had done in the past like subscribe that is the macro look at the monthly swings I think there is a fair bit of uh waiting here for quarter 2 2024 make sure I’m getting that right for some sort of low to come in here for Bitcoin and in terms of the prices we’ve looked at those when it comes to say 56k as a reasonable level and then to the downside those low 50s we’ll go through that in other videos this one is way long enough I tried to do it short there was a lot to cover so apologies but appreciate your support thanks again guys I’ll see you at the next video till then take care and peace out

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PS – A common response to stock markets in ATHs is “This is a sign that a collapse is near”. My response is yes, it is a symptom of a collapse but the timing is the issue. Now is not the time for a worldwide collapse. The Everything Bubble must do its damage first (to the upside) for a major collapse to unfold.

Video Description:

My 20 minutes or less “thoughts on” the markets today.

The masses always arrive too late to the market cycle and stay too long. It happens every single cycle without fail. Avoid doing what the masses do when the buy and sell bitcoin and crypto. In this video, we analyse what is happening in the traditional markets, SP500 and economy right now including interest rate cuts and hikes, along with when is a reasonable time to take profits on Bitcoin and what strategy I am using with my bitcoin profits in the crypto bull market cycle.

Like and Share if you want to inform your friends and family.

Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin, SP500, economic info
05:30 Bitcoin ST
09:40 Bitcoin macro
17:50 Altcoin market analysis

*I reserve the right to adjust my outlook as more information and data come through for Bitcoin.

➢ Disclaimer: This video is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice and is not an endorsement of any provider, product or service. All trading involves risk. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. Swyftx, ByBit, BingX and Bitget are channel sponsors. All decisions you make are your own. #crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews