How the DOLLAR RUNS WITH BITCOIN, Stocks & Gold

How the DOLLAR RUNS WITH BITCOIN, Stocks & Gold

warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only the content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creat only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it [Music] all all right hello and welcome to C Finance I’m your boy camel and welcome to the week welcome to Monday a couple of announcements tomorrow I have a fishing trip planned it looks like it’s going to rain so if it rains I probably won’t go and you can expect normal content from me if however I do decide to go fishing despite the rain tomorrow or by some miracle it does not rain then I will probably have I think I’ve got a video somewhere that has been seen by the members already so I’ll set that to upload tomorrow so you have something to watch at least and the other thing is if you want to go and watch the podcast that was on yesterday on cpm’s channel I will put Link at the end of this video I’ll put a big big clickable link so you can click that and hop over there and see the podcast with me CPM and the mighty Cobra stacker other than that as I said welcome to the week welcome to Monday I think the way we want to kick off this week is with a little bit of Monday morning DMT so this of course is the dollar milkshake Theory and the reason I want to go over this is because a lot of people seem confused I keep saying that the dollar can indeed run higher with risk with gold with Bitcoin Etc and a lot of people are very confused by this a lot of people keep saying to me how how on Earth can you be calling for higher Bitcoin with a dollar running as well and so yeah I completely understand right typically what we do see is an inverse relationship between the dollar and risk between the dollar and gold between the dollar and Bitcoin meaning when the dollar is in a decline we typically expect these other assets to be in an advance and this is simple because people are getting rid of dollars and using them to take on risk they are typically speaking using those dollars to buy gold to buy Bitcoin and also we get this idea that a weakening dollar forces people to look for yield to look for way of preserving their purchasing power by buying things like the stocks like gold like Bitcoin but remember we are currently in the middle of very very wild times and wild times cool for DMT so like I said I’m going to go over this dollar milkshake Theory and then what I’m going to show you is a technical setup that proves the Dixie and risk can run together and in fact the technical setup I’m going to show you I believe is very very similar to what we have today so DMT the dollar milkshake Theory this is an analogy used to describe a milkshake of liquidity with the dollar as the key ingredient the dollar is the world reserve and the foundation of the global economy so a rapidly Rising dollar has huge impacts on the rest of the world people think that just because they keep printing dollars that it can only go down and whil that might be true in the long term the dollar will lose purchasing power over time relative to its purchasing power today in reality the printing of dollars actually forces other countries to print their own currencies in similar amounts to ensure that trade Import and Export costs and servicing their debt doesn’t get out of control so this essentially means the USA can export its inflation to the rest of the world because it has that world Reserve status now in theory if all nations are inflating at similar rates shouldn’t it all even out right well this is entirely wrong and this all comes down to one key difference demand so because the USA has the world Reserve status it also has huge demand underneath the dollar everything is settled in dollars oil Gas Energy gold Commodities they’re all settled in dollars and this keeps a permanent demand underneath the dollar the most important point to note here is that demand is simply not there for the other rapidly inflating currencies some examples here for you is that Asia and Europe settle their soybeans in dollars with Brazil the Saudis settle nearly all of their oil in dollars Europe and Asia do very very little amount of non-dollar trade for oil China and Japan use dollars to settle things like copper with Australia so everybody needs dollars even if they don’t want them and they also of course need these dollars to service their dollar denominated debt held by the corporations and governments outside of the USA so of course this explains why many countries like China and the bricks Etc are trying to move off of the dollar they want to decrease that dollar demand and thus take away some of the power that the USA has to export its inflation to other countries but that does take a lot of time and of course the USA is going to fight tooth and nail to defend that meanwhile of course the USA is more than happy with holding all of the power and control of the currency and global trade now the real risk comes when Global economies slowed down or the USA economic growth outpaces the rest of the world this is because when the economic activity in the the USA is outpacing that of the rest of the world it sucks up dollars decreasing the supply for the rest of the world to use but of course they still need those dollars to settle their trade and their dollar denominated debt the increase in demand and dollar actually forces the price of the dollar higher relative to the other currencies and it makes it much tougher for all the other countries to service their debt and conduct international trade and this is where the milkshake analogy comes in as the dollar moves higher due to relatively higher demand it slurps up all the other currencies which are forced to print even more of their own currency to then convert to dollarss so that it can be used to pay for goods and services and of course service their dollar debt this of course means the dollar just keeps on Rising because many countries will be forced to devalue their own currencies by printing more of them which then causes the dollar to rise again adding to the strain on the global system so what’s worse is this makes the dollar look like an attractive Safe Haven because of course the dollar keeps Rising relative to these other currencies so the USA ends up sucking up all the capital from the rest of the world and the dollar again Rises so if this keeps up soon you’re going to have a global Sovereign Bond and currency crisis and this of course drives even more Capital into the dollar for safety which completely undermines Global markets and like it or not there is literally nowhere else to hide you want the GBP no the Euro the JPY no as all of these are going to be dying against the dollar and so this is dollar milkshake Theory the dollar milkshake Theory says that the dollar will slurp up all of the other currencies in the world it creates this vortex at the base of the straw in which all other Fiat currencies are sucked into as they are forced to wrap rapid L devalue their currency without however that key difference of having the demand and the requirement for their own currencies of course the dollar is the one that has the world Reserve status the dollar is the one that therefore benefits from having a constant bid and a constant demand underneath it and so this whole thing is a bit of a trick of the mind it’s a bit of a smoke and mirror show we watch a Dollar Rising thinking the dollar is getting stronger when actually it is simply the strongest dying cow in a sick herd of dying cows and so I believe this is what we’re seeing I believe the reason we’re getting a dollar bid is not because the dollar is actually strong I believe what we’re seeing is the dollar slurping up all these other Fiat currencies I believe these other Fiat currencies are dying a death of a Thousand Cuts because they do not have the demand internationally underneath them like the dollar does and so if I pull up a chart here I’ve said this over and over and over again this is the dxy remember the dollar in a basket relative to some other currencies what I’ve been saying I would love to see more than anything is the dollar nose dive off a cliff I’ve been saying this over and over again I would love to see that but we can’t even entertain a bearish scenario until we at least lose this upward sloping blue support line and if indeed we do have DMT in play then I don’t see any reason why this continuation to the upside for the dxy can’t occur again I would love to see this but there is significant work to do major breakdowns need to occur first before we can even entertain that as a possibility and as I always say charts of the truth charts do not lie this is a clear breakout leaving behind a 3year cycle low unless something changes very very quickly then it’s only reasonable to expect continuation so I said I would show you a worked example I flipped the Dixie onto a weekly chart and I have here all of the threeyear cycle lows marked as you can see if I scroll all the way back to around the end of the 1990s what you will notice is we put in a three-year cycle low for the Dixie around the end of October in 1998 and the dollar went on this big big run from 92 is to somewhere in the 121 region now you’ll notice in blue here I have a blue vertical line denoting March of 2000 and the reason I have denoted March 2000 on that Dixie chart is because when I pull up a NASDAQ chart look what happened in March of 2000 right here we had the peak of a blowoff top in the NASDAQ for anyone unfamiliar we had our first angle somewhere in this neighborhood we had our second angle somewhere in this neighborhood and then we set that third and final blowoff top angle before ultimately moving into this big deflationary bust again if I hop back into this Dixie chart you can see we made a threeyear cycle low the dollar started to move at the same time as the NASDAQ put in that blowoff top okay and then you know what happened there after the NASDAQ rolls over from its peak and the dollar continues to be massively bid for some time so we now reset this chart and pull it up at today we may well have a three-year cycle low in Play We may well have that first portion of the move whilst of course the NASDAQ is possibly entertaining its first angle already set its second angle possibly already set and if indeed I am right about what happens next then we should be looking for a third and Fin final angle to come in that parabolic blowoff top that ultimately culminates in this deflation reust all against the backdrop of the dollar slowly but surely creeping up we would perhaps expect if this thing is to play out again to see some kind of parabolic blowoff top occur sometime around July and August I’m open to moving that date back or forward a couple months if need be but I largely suspect somewhere in this neighborhood we will get that top come in that third angle as I said here in the NASDAQ break down something like this okay big pushup breakdown and that right there that breakdown if I am right about this whole move and if it is to repeat something like we saw in the late 90s early 2000s then we would probably expect the dollar to do something like this and of course all of this is very consistent with that melt-up chart of mine okay it’s been written here the entire time Dixie to 134 to 140 Plus for the people that have been following me for a long time they know nobody wanted this three-year cycle lad to occur later in life nobody wanted to see that breakdown of the dollar more than me okay this would have been way way easier to deal with this would have implied way way less chance of a currency crisis but when the charts speak it’s not about being right or wrong it’s is about listening to the market it is about being able to hold your hands up and say this is probably not going to happen I’m probably going to be wrong about this call to the mid 90s I don’t see how this happens I can’t even entertain this happening until we at least lose this up with soap and blue support and all the while we continue to break out all the while we continue to do this then like I showed you with that late ’90s example into the early 2000s I think what we have is a very similar setup I expect this dollar milkshake Theory to continue to play out I expect this perceived strength in the dollar to actually be a function of all the other currencies dying that death of a Thousand Cuts and if I am right about setting this third and final blowoff top angle then parabas typically break to the downside when they do they typically break down spectacularly and then I guess all of this pink text here is likely to start to come to fruition so as always I am open to being proven wrong okay I am open to being proven wrong but as I always say okay one one day at a time so far so good now if we start to roll over okay if we take out that cycle low that we just set back here I will have to hold my hands up and say something else is at play this is not a parabolic blowoff top but all the while we are holding these angles okay all the while we have set the first angle we have set the second angle all the while we continue to move up and potentially look to set a violent Third near vertical blowoff top angle then like I said it is really difficult for me to get away from this being the base case scenario of course for Bitcoin we are still waiting to see if we can get a little bit more chop a little bit more of this into this cycle low and then if Bitcoin starts to do this as well okay I don’t know how else to interpret that we would have a Dixie continuing to run with a stock market in a blowoff top and Bitcoin looking like it was in a heavily left translated cycle all against the backdrop of people saying things when we get into this neighborhood like super cycle million doll Bitcoin no more recessions fed’s going to just keep printing it’s an election year soft Landing all of these narratives will proliferate at the top and of course that is when euphoria greed will be at its peak and that is why of course we will be looking to see that extended bare Market come in for both Bitcoin and the stock market all against the backdrop of a massively bid dollar as the dollar slurps up the entire rest of the milkshake around the world as always we are coming out of the gate swing in on Monday so welcome again to Monday welcome again to the week and let’s keep going because on Friday as is typical for Fridays Banks only collapse on Fridays of course okay The Regulators have seized Republic First Bank Corp which again points at the fact that there is obviously enough banking reserves in the system it’s an easy fix for JP to just taper QT over time this is dollar liquidity positive and should provide another bullish Catalyst for crypto I wonder if they’re going to step in I wonder if Bitcoin is going to sniff this out I wonder if this ends up being the Catalyst over the next couple of weeks Dino here shared a very interesting and outside the box recession indicator that of course would be consistent with seeing a top coming in in a not too distant future it would of course also be consistent we’ve expecting that Global recession that deflation reust at the Hard rate Edge assuming we can of course put in a parabolic blowoff top first and this outside the box recession indicator is known as the stripper index so take a look at this we are going into a huge recession and here’s how I know we just got our 1099s back show you what a bad year at the Mustang Ranch looks like so there you have it for an outside the box an outside the box recession indicator but I guess when times get hard right you have to stop putting your money in places that are more economically viable than strippers I don’t know but I tell you what I did think was interesting as well okay because this went completely counterintuitive to the way I think I recently came across this that during times of increased cost of living what we see is gambling Behavior massively increase and I couldn’t wrap my head around this at first because in my mind if I was struggling to put food on the table the last thing I would do is be gambling money I didn’t have to try to win a weak shopping but apparently this is not how your average person thinks your average person has a tendency to gamble more and more the poorer they get this article is over a year old but you can see here the UK cost of living crisis is leading people to gambling so this made me pull up a few gambling charts which I’ll flip through with you now of some of the largest gambling companies you can see that at the hard right Edge this one is trending up so is this one over the last six months so is this one over the past year and so is this one particularly since around January of 2023 so these are some Pretty Outside the Box indicators for a recession of course I’m not suggesting that just based on these things we are going to go and see a recession of course if you’re familiar with the work you know that a lot more goes into coming up with this idea than just the stripper index and a couple of gambling company stocks trending up and to the right but I do wonder if we will be able to look back at this in a few months time and say yeah the writing was on the wall in multiple places some inside the box and of course some outside the box in the more short to medium term tomorrow a $230 billion Bitcoin ETF is going to launch in Hong Kong so could this be a driver to see some up upside price relief from Bitcoin and it’s not just China that are looking at raising an ETF because thanks to Jay here who shared this with me it’s also Australia looking to get in on a Bitcoin ETF and kazari also pointed out that we may well have found a catalyst for our cycle low which would be slightly early but legal and qualifying because on May 15th investors with more than $100 million in assets under management have to file reports with the SEC called 13f filings which discloses their publicly traded Holdings those fil are due around 45 days after the end of the calendar quarter whilst they won’t capture everyone they are just a snapshot in time it’s likely that some of those names on the filings will surprise people to the upside so imagine if it comes out that the likes of some Sovereign wealth funds or even some nation states have been adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet via the sport ETFs of course people are going to look at this and interpret it as bullish and it just so happens to be right around that timing window where we should expect to see a cycle low for Bitcoin so I wonder if this could act as a catalyst in the meantime not a great deal has changed okay we are currently something around 20 days away from that perfect 60-day cycle low remember this could be plus or minus 6 days and that would still be perfectly legal and qualifying I do expect to see us find some kind of cycle low and then out of there it will be time to figure out for sure whether we are indeed in a blowoff top a left translated cycle or if we do not come swinging out of here like this fractal suggests okay if we do something more like this something more lackluster more Base building or even a failed cycle that then Trends down then we can breath the relief and say left translated cycle was probably off the table it would be highly unlikely that we do something like this for another 60-day cycle and then move into a left translated cycle so I really think that we’re going to get our answer it’s been a very very long time coming but we’re right around here now right if I’m right about this blowoff top if I’m right about this left translated cycle we should come out of here swinging the same as if I’m right about the blowoff top in the stock market we should be continuing much higher and at a much more accelerated rate all of this of course against a backdrop of likely a stronger dollar or at least a perceived stronger dollar of course we’ll likely be able to look back at this time and say well that kind of made sense that gold is breaking out gold always knows something gold probably knows that a recession is not too far away so what a wild time to be alive again welcome to the week welcome to Monday the countdown I’ll put in the thumbnail for Bitcoin I’m going to say 20 days but if it shows up a few days either side you know cut me some slack other than that like I said probably going to be a big week for the stock market we’re going to find out if we break out okay we’re not out of the woods yet rejected resistance and roll over lose this trend line something else is going on under the hood but get a Breakout on a weekly closing basis this week Above This downward sloping blue resistance line and I think it is party time I think it is go Time same deal for the NASDAQ something like this yellow squiggle suggests and happy days but we are still susceptible to a rejection at resistance and a breakdown and if that happens then that will tell us something else is going on under the hood Dow Jones possibly set it second angle looking to resume higher okay any kind of close up in this neighborhood for the end of the week and we can say with high degree of confidence that that is the second angle set and again it should be party time in the not two distant future so what a wild time to be alive and as promised hopefully somewhere in the middle of this video there should be a big clickable link to creative precious metals Channel you can go there watch the two swigs and Sig podcast and we took it to some strange places but I think you’re going to like it I think you’re certainly going to enjoy some of the more outside the box conversations so other than that have a great week and until next time take care from me all the best cheers bye

How the DOLLAR RUNS WITH BITCOIN, Stocks & Gold
Dollar Milkshake Theory
Setup similar to 99??
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