This Gold/Silver Bull Market Is Different – Here’s Why | Michael Oliver

This Gold/Silver Bull Market Is Different – Here’s Why | Michael Oliver

I think it’s going to be different this time though I think the outcome instead of a top and then a bare Market in Gold I think the world is facing a monetary crisis economic crisis a political crisis all things coming together this is Kaiser Johnson with liberty and finance and these are the miles Franklin weekly specials for April 29th through May 6th 2024 while supplies last first we feature 2023 1o South African silver KW Gand at just $3.10 overs spot next backdated 1o gold Australian kangaroos are only $59 over spot to order our specials or any of the many other options we have available call us at 188881 Liberty that’s 8888152843 [Music] [Music] Johnson with liberty and finance and back with us today is our good friend Michael Oliver from momentum structural analysis Oliver msa.com Michael thank you so much for your time today good to be back well it’s great to have you we’ve seen obviously a very exciting few months in the medals we had you on last month and definitely you know talked about the rise we’ve seen we we’ve continued to see a rise in both gold and silver silver finally catching up now um and we’ve seen a slight you know consolidation not a huge pullback or anything like that in your uh recent report you talked about how a lot of people are expecting a significant pullback in the medals but if you look at uh history and what we saw for example in the 2008 pullback in medals we’ve really already seen that pullback um and now it seems like we might be Off to the Races um from here your perspective on where we are is that was a that was a point I made in the weekend report what I did is I showed a monthly price chart of gold during the last B Market from 2001 to 2011 and it was a laborious 8-year process up through about 2008 where you’d go up nice nice advance and then you’d spend a year or more going sideways with dips and dips you know just bore the heck out of you and finally in that October 2008 selloff in gold which was sympathetic with the stock market crash by crash what I mean something that takes 30% off of a market Market in a matter of two weeks okay that’s what happened in 29 happened in ‘ 87 and in October of 2008 the S&P was already a year off of its high been declining for a full year while gold had been going up by the way during that time and during that basically late August early September and especially October of 2008 there was this crash type event in the S&P and sure enough gold had a sympathetic drop though it had been opposite the S&P for the prior year so but anyway it did have a sympathetic drop and it was one when you look at the price chart of gold back then there had been a range it hit a th000 backed off hit a th these are all-time new highs now and in it was July of 2008 before before that drop you hit a thousand for a second time and then that pullback finally sold off enough to where on a price chart you finally took out a prior prominent low first time in years that gold that had a selloff that actually took out a prior low so in effect it had a cleansing drop soon as it finished that drop boom back to the highs okay meanwhile S&P continued down until 2009 very similar thing happened between 2020 2022 he come up to 2070 price level backed off came back up to 2070 again in March of 2022 so again back up to the high for the second time and it was the pullback from that March 2022 high that finally got out of control in When September October of 2022 and you took out a bunch of Prior lows just like what happened like you said in 2008 soon as you did that boom you’re back to the highs so it was a fake out that was a cleansing drop that was similar to the 2008 debacco was over with so fast if you were on a long vacation you missed it okay everybody seems to think we have to have another one why you just had one okay uh I don’t think the stock market is about to crash by the way I think the stock market if it’s going to crash which I think is possibility in this bare Market doesn’t always occur in bare markets you know stock market does no I have a crash to Bubble never had a crash okay it’s going to take some months of downside arm wrestling in the stock market before you finally get to levels that could generate a sharp rapid selloff between now and then I’m suspecting you got several months of arm wrestling decline now there’s some levels below the market but they’re down there you’re not threatening them right now so I don’t think there’s any near-term Jeopardy the next couple months of anything like a crash in the stock market now you get a little closer to the election yeah maybe so gold I don’t think is threatened by that that phenomenon again um and between now and the next couple months I strongly suspect Gold’s going a lot higher and silver and miners especially a lot higher and as you noted if you go back to the February low of this year look at the gain that silver had from that low to the current price even though there’s been a recent pullback look at the percent gain in the miners from the February low to where they are now and look at the percent gain in gold and you’ll find gold is much less gain on a percent basis than those two those two subcategories so anyway way uh I’m not worried about a sharp sell off in Gold yes you’re going to have week toe drops here and there but I think we’re in the acceleration phase meaning that part of the bull market where most of the bull market gains of the entire Trend at eight nine years in this case we’re eight years old as well uh will be compressed in the final year of the move most of the drama most of the percentage and I think we’re at that we’ve crossed that line now I think we’re entering the acceleration phase can you explain a bit more of the outperformance we’ve seen in silver and miners with respect to Gold I know the gold silver ratio has declined a bit during this slight consolidation here it’s increased but mainly down in the last uh month or so we measure Silver versus gold a different way than other people do we what we do is we divide the price of silver into gold and if you do that silver right now is just below one 1.2% of the price of gold you ever a close a month frankly if you close a week in our opinion uh about 1.21% so not far above where we we’ve been laboring the last several weeks uh you’re going to break that spread out now what I mean by breakout is this if you go back to 2020 High when silver fastly outperformed gold in that surge there’s been a relative performance staircasing downside action on that spread where Silver’s been losing value relative to Gold but you can plot it it’s a beautiful trend line it’s like a fivepoint rally trend line you hit the line you back off and start we’re now pushing to try to get through that line you do the same thing with GDX the minor ETF versus gold you have the same sort of declining pattern since the surge in 2020 when miners beat gold it’s already breaking out with this month’s action so we think that that’s going to be a the final signal that tells us that yes we are in the acceleration phase because you go back and look in that late 2001 to 2011 bull market in gold and silver it was in about 2010 that silver beat the pants off of gold it just suddenly erupted and went to 50 bucks you know from like 20 uh so it it was it was not only acceleration in both metals to the upside but at that point in time in the final year especially and this is true in 1979 to 80 as well which is the tail end of that bull market silver vastly beat gold so while it might have barded you during much of the bull Trend up through 1979 or up through let’s say 2008 where silver was sort of keeping Pace with gold but really wasn’t beating it it was in the last year that silver went electric and we we’re at the threshold of that right now so anyway it’s it’s going to be an exciting year and probably a lot less than a year to to gain most of what I see coming and are there any price levels that you’re looking at right now in general for silver uh to finally make that breakout it’s well it’s achieved its momentum breakouts measuring its price versus certain long-term averages like a 36-month average which like a three-year average uh it’s not the crossing of that average that was so important but when you plot an oscillator where you plot the monthly action of silver in its relationship to let’s say a three-year average or 36-month average you get a different pattern on the chart than you do when you look at the price chart of silver that broke out just above $25 we’re where 2730 or so right now so we’re well above the momentum breakout of silver the level that says you’re re-engaging silver you’re re-engaging to the upside the the three years of boredom is over okay uh the the only lag metric we have now is what we were just talking about the spread relation ship between silver and gold just needs a decimal or so more and that spread will join and say yep Silver’s going to beat gold and that’s basically our final signal um we think there’s other things going on in other markets that are influencing this and uh you know the Bond Market stock market US Stock Market in particular we think it’s likely topped out of this recent teasing new high that it made due to five or six stocks primarily we all know that story uh we think that that we got a sell signal the first trading day of April that said okay that rally is over we’re rejoining the long-term damage that had been done in early 2022 it price is not far below where we are right now in fact so I think that that that teasing rally to a new marginal High and a few select parts of the stock markets over now the process is that way that will no doubt influence data points which will influence the fed and believe me they’re probably eager to start cutting they’re just looking for an excuse uh why uh I’m not going to allege political bias on their part but I’ve heard from various sources on news programs and so forth that the FED Governors definitely don’t want uh a trump Victory uh so they don’t want to do anything that would be uh uh harmful to Biden and uh so you know if the if the economy if the stock market needs some saving because that’s one of the few things that that the current Administration could point to and say look the stock market is doing good uh if all of a sudden that’s not the case in the months prior to the election which we suspect technically will not be the case then that’s going to hurt them uh and Trump has already said he’s goingon to fire Powell so uh now again let’s get off that subject the FED just needs some data points now we saw one last week GDP vastly lower than expected uh all you need is like a a a change in the employment numbers now over the last three or four months if you objectively looked at the data that was issued about employment unemployment job creation etc etc and looked at what components of the job market saw growth in job and employment there were government Home Health Care Hospitality these were the sectors that grew in job gain things like you core industrial sectors core sectors of the economy uh-uh also government was a big factor in the growth and this has been true for like three months such that UBS head of I think it was the head of trading at UBS said A week or two ago Powell aren’t you reading the data points you know can’t you see what’s going on here why can’t you identify that the unemployment numbers really haven’t been what they superficially look like they really aren’t good uh and Powell’s coming and say oh it’s looking good you know well what they need the Fed needs an excuse and if they can get one like this week if you know if all of a sudden the job data changes a bit then that’ll be a second piece of data they got a real problem though because they have two mandates one is to fight quote inflation as they narrowly Define it which is like especially commodity price inflation our def our assessment is the Bloomberg commodity index is about to be reborn again that surge in 2020 to 2022 ended we corrected we’re about to go again on the upside so that’s going to continue to put pressure on them to maintain High rates if only they could get some unemployment data and some weakened data points like G GDP then they can go to their other mandate which is the employment issue so they’re really split they’ve got a problem uh and you know I wish them well I mean many people have talked about the FED being trapped for quite a while here and and this might be finally coming to a head here cuz as you mentioned if if there are employment issues but then you’re also trying to fight inflation it doesn’t seem like there’s really anything they can do and win in this case yeah it’s uh they’ll have to cut and they will cut uh and the ECB has already hinted that they’re you know through and so forth and so on so it’s not just what the FED does it’s what the other developed economy uh central banks do and you can bet that if certain asset categories that they don’t want to see go down such as the stock market go down they’ll never admit this but that is a factor for them they will definitely cut uh they also have a bigger problem this time you know we’re used to seeing in these bubble breaks the crisis come to private Banks and we had a wave of selling a year ago you know when the banks crash for like 30% in a week or two and they’ve never got back to their High by the way the bank sector uh that concerned but they dismissed it okay but commercial real estate’s a real problem right now and and it’s not getting better and when you look at the charts of it like rwr ETF and and and so forth uh they are sick they don’t even look like the stock market and so it’s the Government Bond Market that’s really Behaving Badly not so much private debt the t-bonds the 30-year bonds uh they have not stopped they’ve not paused like the FED has done on the short end of the market t-bonds keep choking with higher rates and that’s the end of the market that hurts debtors the most the long-term adjustable rate mortgage etc etc that’s hurting corporations and individuals and so it’s their bond market that is the real threat this time around and uh they don’t control that into the market very well so they’ve got a real crisis at hand and um I think they know it but they can’t admit it now when it comes to also real estate I know that you’re expecting a downturn from here as well um when do you expect that to start and why it’s well again pop up a chart of rwr when you get a chance you’re you’re people watching this and and put it on your screen like put up a monthly bar chart of rwr go back uh five or six years and you’ll see had a big move with the stock market and then it’s come down real hard since 2022 just like the S&P did the S&P turned back up and nipped out its high by about single digigit percentages now it’s starting to give that back look at rwr and it’s laid in the bottom half of the price range since the drop in 2022 and right now it’s nudging toward what’s been a multiple bottom even on the price charts that looks like it’s very anemic it’s it how come it can’t get going now you know Janet Yellen just said A week or two ago she’s not too concerned about commercial real estate it’s quote manageable well we quoted her on the weekend report because Bernan said something almost same in May of 2007 he says h no the mortgage Market’s uh it’s manageable okay uh so we have Assurance from above that no there’s no problem when you look at the chart there’s a problem and if that commercial real estate cracks just a little bit more singled digit percentages it’s going to blow out the bottom of that range which case while the stock market is coming back off of its teasing highs commercial real estate’s about to sink through multi-year lows and believe me that has real world consequences the kind that will definitely cause the fed and the EB and so forth to flip policy back to what they do the best FR a gold knows that and mentioning staying on real estate here um also I I know that I I heard an interesting argument um about so this was I believe last August uh Warren Buffett was investing in home builders now it sounds like um late Fe February here was announced that he has sold them now and you just analyzed a chart of home build home builders index there um how does that maybe differ from Real Estate if at all well it does it it it shot to a new high along with the stock market but it’s again it’s limited to four five six big names that we all know home builders it’s looking like a blowoff that’s collapsing meanwhile the commercial real estate market dropped and went sort of dead anemic sick the home builder shot up to a spike new home above the 2022 high but they’re collapsing back down as if that new high was a fake out which I think it was technically speaking and so it looks different than the commercial real estate but the commercial real estate is quite potent it’s quite heavy it’s quite important to the economy um and and we all know stories you know like there’s some skyscraper in St Louis used to be the biggest skyscraper in the US or whatever and you know they sell you could buy it for a couple million bucks you know Etc so anyway it’s not goodlooking and even the home builders now which had that what we call a blowoff which is to say an exhaustion Spike uh we think they’re headed down too so that end of the market the real estate market but especially commercial real estate is a a very dark cloud and then when it comes to Precious Metals coming full circle here it seems like if these other markets are not going to do well if they’re going to crash or even if they’re just going to see um you know a downturn here that should be good for alternative asset classes yeah and used to be t- Bonds were an alternative to the stock market you know the old 60/40 rule 60% stocks 40% bonds you balanced quote unquote well 2022 proved that was wrong t- bonds went down more at the stock market and right now t- bonds are back in sync with the stock market meaning they’re going down yields going up at the same time stock market starting to turn down uh and it leaves when you look across the Spectrum if you’re a large asset manager and I mean not even a gold bug okay you just you’re managing billions and you’ve been primarily loaded up in the stock market because you had to be even if you’re skeptical why because it’s going up and if you’re not in it you’re not making money and your peers are beating you so you’ve got to you’ve got to compete with your peers uh but there’s a lot of Skeptics out there and some of them have already made the you know St Stanley dren Miller in mid-February is an example made headlines when he he dumped two or three bigname tech stocks uh and they’ve since gone down but he bought numont and bar gold to the Big Blue Chips well I mean I look back at the chart when when that was announced it was like February 20th you looked at numont mining back then it was trading about 32 bucks where is it now 42 10 weeks it’s gained 35% you know uh he he was right on his assumptions and there’s more guys like him that are jumping in there I’m reading about uh so as as the stock market starts to wobble doesn’t even have to crash or anything like that just wobble enough to create doubt on the part of Risk Managers who saying you know I just too heavily weighted in this uh less reward higher risk sector I need to move 05% over somewhere else and you look around what else is performing well suddenly the gold miners are performing very well Thunderbolt type upsides and they’re looking at gold and they’re saying Gees you know I better move into the monetary metal sector or the miners related there too and anybody looks at long-term charts of the miners compare them to the SCP or compare them even to the price of gold they’re vastly undervalued I mean to the point of insanity and that’s why you know numont went up 35% in 10 weeks was it just because duck and Miller bought it because I frankly after he bought it went up a couple bucks but obviously somebody else bought it uh and I think that that that sector is probably going to be the most outperforming sector among stocks for the next year uh vastly so do you expect this bull run to kind of done within about 12 months then or how long do you think this final stage could take yeah I think it’s going to be different this time though I think the outcome instead of a top and then a bare Market in Gold I think the world is facing a monetary crisis and I economic crisis a political crisis all things coming together it’s not just markets okay don’t think don’t think about markets think about political instability turmoil non-optic outcomes to elections uh outcomes that are totally surprising you know like Argentina you two parties have been in power for decades socialism prevailed and all of a sudden this young Economist intellectual Javier Malay who’s an anarcho capitalist comes in there and says that’s it and the kids voted for him he beat both parties knocked him aunder and he’s starting to chop government up and sell it off and suddenly the price of rentals down there which have been off the page for families that couldn’t afford it is collapsing 20% Which means it’s it’s gotten better for the poor so to speak but you know out of the blue that came you nobody expected that uh and in the US the outcome I don’t care how you you pick who which side you’re on no matter who wins this election it will be not copasetic uh you know I’ve mentioned before in interviews the University of Virginia Department of politics did a poll back October and they pull Biden voters and Trump voters and the opinions were fairly weighted on both sides that uh secession wouldn’t be a bad idea if the other side wins uh a large percentage on both sides said if the other side wins violence might be justified I mean you know this is not going to be copasetic no matter who wins so and I don’t think that’s built into the price action of the market yet I don’t think the market understands The Ripping of the tablecloth off this time around it’s not going to be a normal normal election and normal outcome should be I guess interesting to watch definitely as we as we uh head towards the election here it’ll be great to have you back on to continue to track this with you um any last thoughts before we let you go and where can our viewers find you online uh Oliver msa.com explain our methodology there scroll down through our values what we offer you and uh We’ve inserted a film at the bottom of that that we did about eight years ago it’s a comedic little film about 7 minutes long uh this explains our methodology in a in a humorous way that makes it less dry to hear the explanation of methodology and uh by the way I’ve lost weight since I did that anyway which is good anyway uh yeah and the request is sample we happy to send you sample reports but take care of your families is the main thing to do this year don’t don’t worry about the world and right now the best way to take care of your family is get out of certain assets and get into others and uh and and relax a bit because it’s not going to be relaxing year if you’re in the wrong place definitely well Michael once again thank you so much for your time and God bless thank you this is Kaiser Johnson with liberty and finance and these are the miles Franklin weekly specials for April 29th through May 6th 2024 while supplies last first we feature 2023 1o South African silver Krug Gand at just $3.10 over spot next backdated 1 o gold off Australian kangaroos are only $59 over spot to order our specials or any of the many other options we have available call us at 188881 Liberty that’s 8888152843 [Music]

Gold, silver, and miners are likely to outperform the stock market and real estate, says Michael Oliver (https://www.olivermsa.com). Normally during a precious metals bull market there would be a top and then a bear market. But this time may be different he says. “I think the world is facing a monetary crisis, an economic crisis, a political crisis.”

WEEKLY SPECIALS (while supplies last!)
1 oz Silver Krugerrands: $3.10 over spot
1 oz Gold Kangaroos: $59.00 over spot
CALL US: 1-888-81-LIBERTY (1-888-815-4237)
or email your name and phone number to LibertyAndFinance@Protonmail.com

INTERVIEW TIMELINE:
0:00 Intro
1:30 Gold & silver update
6:30 Silver outperformance
9:00 Silver breakout
13:55 Fed rate cut
15:56 Real estate
19:25 Shift into metals
24:06 Momentum Structural Analysis
21:50 Weekly specials
_____________________________
Subscribe for our FREE newsletter – #1 place for gold & silver news & commentary: http://libertyandfinance.com
_____________________________
CANADIANS CAN NOW BUY SILVER & GOLD ONLINE IN $CAD and support this channel! Go to https://mfbullion.ca, and during checkout under the dropdown selection “How did you hear of us (optional),” select: “LibertyAndFinance – Dunagun Kaiser” !

Social Media links
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/LibertyAndFinance
Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/LibertyAndFinance
Google Podcasts: https://bit.ly/3gYtU8Q
Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/LibertyandFinance
Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/dunagun
Odysee: https://odysee.com/@LibertyAndFinance
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LibertyAndFinance/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DunagunKaiser
Gettr: https://gettr.com/user/libertyandfinance
Gab: https://gab.com/LibertyAndFinance
Parler: https://parler.com/libertyfinance
Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/1023449
Amazon podcasts: https://amzn.to/3SLyANx
iHeart Radio: https://iheart.com/podcast/102551300/
Patreon: https://www.Patreon.com/LibertyAndFinance

Donate to Support Our Mission!
https://www.Patreon.com/LibertyAndFinance
or
https://www.paypal.me/ReluctantPreppers
_____________________________
Liberty and Finance LLC receives financial compensation from its sponsors. The compensation is used is to fund both sponsor-specific activities and general report activities, website, and general and administrative costs. Sponsor-specific activities may include aggregating content and publishing that content on the Liberty and Finance website, creating and maintaining company landing pages, interviewing key management, posting a banner/billboard, and/or issuing press releases. The fees also cover the costs for Liberty and Finance to publish sector-specific information on our site, and also to create content by interviewing experts in the sector. Liberty and Finance LLC does accept stock for payment of sponsorship fees. Sponsor pages may be considered advertising for the purposes of 18 U.S.C. 1734.
The Information presented in Liberty and Finance is provided for educational and informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The Information contained in or provided from or through this forum is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The Information on this forum and provided from or through this forum is general in nature and is not specific to you the User or anyone else. YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON THIS FORUM WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A PROFESSIONAL BROKER OR COMPETENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR. You understand that you are using any and all Information available on or through this forum AT YOUR OWN RISK.
All Rights Reserved.