How France Will Shape the EU Elections

How France Will Shape the EU Elections

This is France – An EU heavyweight. Not only does it boast the 2nd largest population and economy within the EU, but it also stands as one of the most influential countries in the bloc. With a whopping 81 seats out of 720 in the European Parliament, France isn’t just participating: it’s leading the charge, holding more than 11% of the total seats. Only Germany, with its larger population, holds more seats. Therefore, when France goes to the polls for the EU elections on June the 9th, it matters, so if you are French, make sure you participate! So, who can the French vote for? Here’s super quick rundown on the major players, from the largest to the smallest, according to the latest polls: Le Pen’s National Rally, a right-wing populist party, currently leads with 31% support. Historically Eurosceptic, they have shifted from advocating for a "Frexit" and leaving NATO to seeking reforms within the EU and maintaining NATO membership. While Le Pen has publicly condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, her party’s voting record reveals opposition to sanctions and military aid, and she recently abstained from voting on a French security agreement with Ukraine. The party opposes Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO and faces accusations of being pro-Putin, especially given past financial ties to Russia. Domestically, they advocate for strict immigration control and left-leaning economic policies, aiming to represent the "ordinary person." Macron’s centrist liberal Renaissance party holds 18% support. They are very pro-EU, advocating for a European-centred approach to defence, clean energy, and new technologies. The party has recently toughened its stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, suggesting that all support options, including sending European troops, are on the table. Renaissance has long advocated for EU strategic autonomy, especially important with the potential return of a Trump presidency. Additionally, the party has recently adopted stricter migration policies and is pro EU enlargement if all requirements are met. The Centre-Left Socialist Party holds 11% support. Once a dominant French force, it struggled following Hollande’s unpopular presidency. The party is pro-EU, advocating for enhanced military capabilities among member states, increased arms supplies to Ukraine, and the development of a European defence system. They aim to reform agriculture with a new, fair, and sustainable Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and they want to address rising living costs, by capping energy prices for example. When it comes to migration, their approach is a little softer, with focus on regularising workers in irregular situations and human rights. While voting is crucial, another way to influence Europe is by signing EU citizen initiatives like ‘EU Live Bus Stop Info’. Have you ever stood at a bus stop, playing the guessing game of whether your bus missed you or you missed your bus? Imagine a world where a QR code at each bus stop in all 27 EU Member States that gives you real-time bus schedules, routes, delays, and updates right at your fingertips. Imagine not wasting any more time by not knowing whether your bus will actually come to pick you up! Therefore, if you support this initiative, scan the QR code on the screen or click the link in the description below. By signing, you will make your voice heard and can help Europeans getting from A to B. Now back to politics! The Left-Wing Europe Ecology – the Greens hold 8% of support. They are also pro-EU and want to continue to support Ukraine with artillery and air defence. They seek a peaceful, free EU focused on citizens’ prosperity and climate sustainability and aim to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent. In terms of migration they call for more humanitarian aid in crisis areas and want a long-term, fair European asylum policy. In fact, they claim the france is not doing enough to take its fair share in hosting displaced people. The Right-Wing Republicans hold 7% support and are pro-EU, advocating for continued massive support to Ukraine, but oppose EU enlargement. They propose that each EU member state should allocate at least 3% of its GDP to defence annually, thereby strengthening the NATO framework. On migration, the Republicans advocate for significantly strengthening the EU’s external borders, facilitating the expulsion of those in irregular situations, and making the European social model less appealing. They also support processing migration procedures in third countries. The Left Wing populist party France Unbowed, at 7%, is soft eurosceptic, because they perceive the EU as too economically liberal. They are pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine and Gaza, but are historically against raising defence budgets. In terms of migration, they want France to uphold the dignity and human rights of refugees, emphasising solidarity, protection for vulnerable groups, humane border controls and legal sea rescues. The individuals shown are leading candidates from their political parties, but none are likely to become the Commission President, a role Ursula von der Leyen from Germany is most likely to get again. I know this is only a high-level overview; for more detailed analysis, remember to subscribe and hit the notification bell. We’ll dive deeper into each party’s policies as the EU election on June 9th approaches. There are numerous other political parties in France, but it’s important to note that most are polling below 5%. In France, there’s a 5% threshold for parliamentary representation, so parties receiving less than 5% of the vote won’t secure any seats in the EU parliament. Now, you might be wondering: how do these poll numbers actually turn into seats at the European Parliament? Well, we’ve crunched the numbers for you and the National Rally would get the most seats, 29, followed by Renaissance with 17 Seats, and then the Socialists with 10. Bear in mind that there is a small margin of error, as parties in the “Other column” could get 5% and therefore take some seats from the parties on the screen. But the real question is: what happens next on the European stage? Well here’s where it gets interesting: In EU politics, national parties like the National Rally, Renaissance, or the Socialists don’t directly pull the strings. For instance, there isn’t a National Rally party sitting in Ireland. Or a Renaissance party in Romania. Instead, Europe works a bit differently, through political families or groups. France’s National Rally has aligned with similar parties across Europe, such as Germany’s AfD and Italy’s Lega, and many more other national EU parties, to form a coalition known as the Identity and Democracy group, or in short ID. Here’s how French parties connect with European political groups: The National Rally would contribute 29 projected seats to the ID group. Renaissance brings 17 seats to the Renew Europe Group. The Socialist Party adds 11 seats to the S&D group. Europe Ecology takes 7 seats to the European Greens. The Republicans join the EPP. France Unbowed aligns with The Left. Reconquest brings 5 seats to the ECR. The European Parliament has 720 seats, with current projections of the next elections showing the EPP as the largest group, followed by the S&D, ID, Renew Europe, ECR, the Greens, and then the Left. Now if we blend in the current EU parliament seat distribution, you can clearly see the remarkable rise of the ID group to 87 seats, placing them third, ahead of Renew Europe, where Macron’s Renaissance party is a member. The National Rally has shown significant gains, while Macron’s party is underperforming, which is clearly influencing the potential outcome of the EU elections. And here’s something crucial for French voters to understand: casting a vote for your national party like the National Rally isn’t just about local preferences—it’s also an indirect vote for the ID group. This is significant because being part of ID, where Germany’s AfD and Italy’s Lega have substantial influence, might require National Rally to compromise on some of their ideas. And this is where my channel wants to help. We are creating 7 videos, 1 for each political group, to explain in a lot of detail what their vision is for Europe. So for example, do you like the Republicans? Then check out this video on the EPP group to whom they are aligned. Or do you like the Socialist Party? Then check out this video on the S&D group to whom they are aligned. If you like National Rally or Renaissance, then please subscribe to the channel. As in the coming weeks we will release a video explaining both the ID group and Renew Europe group. Thank you so much to our contributor for this video Thank you so much for watching

France is one of the EU’s founding members, and boasts a significant influence with 81 seats othe EU Parliament. This video will delve into the major French parties: LREM, LR, RN, Greens, PS, LFI, etc. We’ll also explore the European Political groups: EPP, S&D, Renew Europe, Greens/EFA, ID, ECR, The Left, and their connections to national parties. We’ll rank them to see who’s in the lead. Additionally, we will examine the roles of figures like Emmanuel Macron and Marin Le Pen and their influence on the EU Commission President race.

Associations of National Parties to EU Political Groups:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/en/breakdown-national-parties-political-group/2019-2024/

EU Live Bus Stop Initiative:
Sign here: https://eci.ec.europa.eu/039/public/#/screen/home

Support the Channel:
💁‍♂️ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/eumadesimple
☕ Buy me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/EUMadeSimple
📷 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/c/EUmadeSIMPLE

Sources:

Le Pen’s Party Downplays ‘Frexit’ in EU Election Campaign Launch

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/03/09/macron-s-coalition-launches-european-election-campaign-focusing-on-ukraine_6600976_5.html
https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20240304-france-s-far-right-rn-to-make-immigration-focus-of-its-eu-election-campaign
https://www.kas.de/documents/252038/29447862/Frankreich+und+die+Europawahlen.pdf/a185b700-baf0-bb6c-84d2-938n/les-decodeurs/article/2024/03/11/2024-european-elections-who-is-running-in-france_6607965_8.html
https://www.parti-socialiste.fr/priorites_et_defis_pour_la_defense_francaise_et_europeenne

Chapitre 8 – Pour la paix : refuser la vassalisation de l’Europe