Critical Charts on Gold, Silver, Uranium, and Energy

Critical Charts on Gold, Silver, Uranium, and Energy

hello everybody and welcome to the Vancouver resource investment conference Channel my name is Jesse day we are bringing the VC to you as usual each and every week with our series of expert online panels we have another great one lined up for you today it’s Patrick Kim and Kevin wodsworth of Northstar bad charts.com we’re going to be getting their view on the commodity space through the perspective and lens of technical analysis and chart something I think is not discussed enough so very excited to dive into that gentlemen thank you for coming on the show thanks for having us Jesse it’s great to be here yes thanks Jesse yes great to have you both on so I’m going to kind of throw the ball in your court for this interview because I know you guys have a lot of cool charts you spend a lot of time working on this so let’s start off we’ll go through some different asset categories before we dive into Commodities I wanted to talk about the broad market and the economy are there any charts you could show us that you think are fascinating that invest should be paying attention to Jesse do you want to go first part or you want to show well yeah I’ll show you one chart to to set like really the macro landscape of like where which assets macro assets are fighting and out duking it out which will carve out the charts that everybody all your investors they like how come my uranium’s not going up or my miners whatever this chart is going to set the stage for that and I I think after that Kevin’s going to show you some actual macro economic charts and uh adding more more color to all this so I’ll share my screen right now Jesse so I I I refreshed this chart recently essentially what you’re looking at guys it’s 140 years and that’s the beauty of trading view there they’re that the data feed goes forever 140 years of US Stocks so essentially the the SPX priced in Gold because we have to remove this Fiat illusion right that’s step number one because everything because if you have a depreciating uh Fiat practically everything of course there’s going to be a cyclical Cycles within it but everything’s going to nominally go up right I think your viewers they’re they’re attuned to that right they’re aware that you know like the SPX is not 100 anymore you know it’s like we’re in the thousands it’s because it is there is growth but there’s also Fiat purchasing power destruction so when you’re pricing in in real terms in Gold it’s a gold it just reflects purchasing power fluctuations you get the real you get in real terms right you often hear people say that so here it is there’s macro Cycles so when you zoom out I know it’s a lot 140 years guys but you got to be aware because if you could time it or if you understand where you are in this macro cycle it changes everything right it’s going to make the difference between your your miners going anywhere and like you know sucking wind or them just like rocking upwards and then you could buy the dips in a more safe manner here I have the 19 like 29 dot not the do com bubble but the the I don’t is there a name for that that that blowoff top we had in 1930s the stock market crash that came immediately afterwards yeah yeah everybody knows crush the Great Depression everybody knows the Great Depression but there was a a runup here’s I know gold was Peg guys but gold was pegged but unpegged people like they think gold was pegged and never moved right So eventually they had to account for purchasing power destruction even when it was pegged officially they there was too much pressure they were printing maybe too much money to finance Wars and stuff like that they actually had to unpeg Gold back in I think in the mid-30s for for the war coming up but here you have the stop stock market crashes price in gold and after that here below here I have the seven-year rate of change so essentially seven-year rate of change is telling you as of today seven years ago how much did the the instrument fluctuate and as that unwinds the rate of change unwinds you’re heading into what it’s called like a bare bare Market territory like the rate of change is not able to increase you’re decreasing and if you combine that with a top and a trend line break you’re you’re increasing the odds that gold will outperform SPX so you had one here in 1931 you had one in 1970 here you see how this the stock markets outperforming gold guys but the rate of change is not able to outpace so that’s step one right create that possible bearish Divergence but as soon as you have a a topping pattern a horizontal line breakdown a rising trend line that broke down and there the rate of change starts dumping into negative territory man that’s that’s a new bull era for uh for precious metals right because Kevin or is going to show you a chart later that gold uranium silver oil all all these instruments they track they love this right they love when the SPX breaks on versus gold until this bottoms of course it doesn’t go up forever there’s a bottom here and after that there’s a reflation in SPX and look we had here here’s a com one a top Rising trend line break down but look at the momentum here it was it kept going up up up after that as the stock market can do new highs it falters rate of plummets cycle repeats over and over I’m thinking a deep breath because look where we are today here the momentum went just crazy up to 2020 but now the momentum the seven-year rate of change is it has it cannot outpace it cannot create higher rate of change and the price is very close here to uh it’s hogging this angled Rising trend line it’s close it’s testing it here a bigger pattern less steep more horizontal looking line which going to create a more important single later on but uh we’re we’re there again the setup’s there Jesse for a macro landscape change it’s not quite confirmed yet this is critical this has to be confirmed for uh to really uh like you know to go uh to say load up on everything but if there ever was a CH a chance to have a change in the you know in the Kings like of the cap the macro assets it’s h it’s right it’s right happening right now well that’s why I love your guys work you always take a unique approach but a very practical one and US Stocks priced in gold is is not a chart you see very often but one that as you pointed out has a lot of insights that people can be looking towards um Kevin what chart did you want to show us in regards to to the broad market and and the economy just to pick up from where left off there and the fact that we’re close to seeing that breakdown for um the stock market versus gold and what that might imply for precious metals there are lots of other pieces of evidence across similar ratio analysis charts that are actually some way ahead of what is happening with SPX versus gold and this is one of them um along with actually gold versus the US dollar Index this is the US M2 money supply to gold ratio and when precious metals are in a bull era and um when precious metals are in a bull era versus the stock market as well what happens you can see this very long downtrend on the chart here when it’s when the chart’s moving to the downside what it means is that M2 money supply is underperforming gold or the other way around gold is outperforming M2 money supply now over the past um 10 plus years 10 12 13 years we’ve seen a pause in this huge downtrend and that pause has formed what um chart technicians refer to as a a rising wedge pattern now these Rising wedge patterns if and they break to the downside are a bearish indication they suggest that a new trend is developing that will lead to a prolonged period of downside action on the on the price chart and back here in uh 2022 when it started to break down I started posting on uh social media that it was um and on our website of course that this is a breakdown on the chart which is indicating good things for for gold now since I put that information out gold has risen $800 so far the thesis was of course that this chart breaking down was a strong piece of evidence to suggest that um gold was entering the very early stages of a of a new bull market of course we were way way below 20 at the time probably somewhere around about $1600 $650 $1700 and of course we’ve moved up to the area near $2,400 so a big move just as this ratio has dropped to where it is now but um over time eventually I expect this to to move significantly further now this is all in with a backdrop of um something that’s very very important and I think your listeners will be well aware of this now perhaps I should point out to this point here is probably a good good time to mention that technical analysis isn’t some kind of voodoo with um kind of Geeks sitting in front of the computer screen just drawing pretty lines and making stuff up I mean my my background is in um military meteorology and we analyze um the at the Earth’s atmosphere in much the the same way and what you’ll what I’ve noticed as a as an next military meteorologist is that um the market movements price charts for whatever happens to be whatever instrument it is and in this case it’s the the 10year yield has a cyclical um nature to it and that cyclical nature um really comes back down to human behavior and investment cycles and the economy itself operates on um a series of cycles and those Cycles are driven by Capital flows Capital rotation and all that kind of stuff which is great but you identify that using these um these charts okay I’m just going to put the uh the moving average on here because it was missing it needs to be the 12E which is 48 period on this quarterly chart so I’ll just do that for you whilst I’m thinking about it okay so this chart here what it does identifies shifts in capital rotation fundamental shifts in um this case government bond yields now what you’ll notice quite quickly is back in the N late 1950s and 1960s the 10year yield broke out above a very important resistance l line began to move upwards and at the same time 12E moving average having been moving down for decades started to move to the upside so what that’s telling you is there’s a a trend change taking place during that period in the late 1950s into the 1960s we all know that during the 1970s inflation was roaring through the economy bond yields were Rising interest rates were rising and I think people sometimes forget that gold had its biggest bull run ever during this period where gold doubled then it doubled again then it doubled again then it doubled again then it went up some more okay now you can imagine with a starting point of 1,500 $2,000 if gold doubles then doubles again then doubles again then doubles again then you you know you don’t have to um a genius to do the mathematics on that and work out where the gold price might be but the important point to notice here and you know you just have to learn from history I think here it’s as simple as that patent recognition and learning from history without delving too deeply into the mechanics of it the 12E moving average has turned up but only well I was going to say only the second first time since the 1950s so you’re talking about what 70 years it’s the first time the 12 moving average has turned up so something fundamental is happening here and the chart pattern that we found ourselves in was a descending expanding wedge now okay that sounds all very geeky and so on but we saw this break down during early 2020 where the bond yields the 10year yields fell very close to to zero that was a false breakdown it was instantly identifiable on that CH pattern as being a false breakdown um it it was unsustainable and the fact that it was such a deep false breakdown on such a massive chart over 40 years meant that the probabilities were very very highly in favor of a violent upside reaction and a breakout of the entire pattern so back in uh early 2020 uh I went on to um you know social media channels and all the rest of it sort of shouting to anybody that would listen was that there was very very strong evidence uh that bond yields were going to move up to at least 5% that was the initial Target area met with a lot of skepticism at the time of course but you know with the benefit of hindsight now we can see that’s exactly what’s happened and we moved through this pain line that’s important because this line here was there for a reason if you think about government debt and debt to GDP that resistance line that red line that goes all the way down the top there every time the 10year yield hit it it was rejected hit it rejected hit it rejected and and there’s a reason for that Ma matically there’s a reason for that don’t really need to think too much about the fundamentals this is all about mathematics and debt sustainability because debt to GDP was rising from 31% up here to roughly 130% down here so debt to G GDP Rising oh outright debt Rising so to service that debt the uh the yields the interest rates on that debt need to be contained more and more and more in other words the the interest rate has to fall and fall and keep falling to kind of keep keep control of the economic situation now we’ve broken out above that pain line as I nicknamed it and we’re up in new CH new territory here we have broken the over the last 40 plus years and we’re now in an a region of this chart that is problematic problematic mathematically for long-term debt sustainability unless unless uh the part one part of this equation can be managed and the part of the equation I’m talking about is um that debt to GDP issue and it’s a it’s a mathematical problem unless GDP can rise rapidly now I don’t know if everybody realizes this but GDP is actually money supply mped by money velocity if you overlay the chart for money supply times money velocity onto um on onto the um onto the GDP chart it’s exactly the same chart they they are identical so what I’m saying I suppose from this chart is that the only way out is for GDP to rise rapidly which means money supply multiplied by money velocity to rise rapidly um and I probably don’t need to explain in too much detail what that might mean in terms of inflation in terms of commodity prices in terms of um gold prices in terms of PPI CPI all of these things so the the the conclusion from this chart for me as a mathematician and sort of scientist point of view is that we’ve got serious issues with debt sustainability the answer to that is to increase GDP increasing GDP is going to put upwards in pressure on inflation commodity prices precious metals and this all fees into the um thesis that there’s a there’s a rotation taking place at the moment in very early stages of rotation away from stock markets and towards Commodities and precious metals what’s up guys quick break my name is Jay Martin I’m the CEO of Cambridge house and the host of The Vancouver resource investment conference I wanted to quickly Point your attention to a link right beneath this video where you can subscribe to our new Weekly Newsletter if you want to better understand the minds of the best investors in the resource space subscribe to this newsletter I author it personally every Sunday and I love writing it hit that link below to subscribe all right back to the interview very fascinating breakdown I’d like to touch on Silver for a moment here are there are the same drivers that are driving gold from a technical point of view um also driving silver how correlated are the two assets what can the charts tell us about silver right now I was going to show you this chart I’ll cover it real fast but I think a better chart to to tell people like you it often how come silver is not back at alltime highs gold is it’s above how come there’s a there’s a built-in catchup move for silver you know but I’m those are some while objectively they might look true there’s some policies embedded in that type of reasoning and I have some actual charts going to show you that people should everything is priced properly right now in the markets if you’re if you think something’s not priced properly because you’re looking at two different charts and comparing them in your head say those two charts they should match but they’re not and then you’re in your head you’re you’re you’re jumping and you’re saying hey those should match they there’s a built-in catchup that means you’re not looking at the good charts you’re not charts that are correlated will look correlated if they’re not correlated there’s no such thing as a catch-up move there might be one but it the markets are pretty smart guys and thinking that the market always got it wrong and there has to be a catchup is you thinking that the the billions of dollars slashing around are like totally off base so maybe maybe I should start with that chart instead of this one let let me just pop it up it’s um that charts one and it’ll be silver tracks because I’ve done a whole bunch of these and okay here all right I’ll show you this one guys again a lot of data the black line is gold adjusted for inflation and then I overlaid the silver chart and you’ll see the track and you’ll see that the gold adjusted for inflation is not at alltime highs right well this look this is Old Chart it’s before it broke out but they’re tracking practically the same right gold has is almost at all-time highs versus inflation silver starting to track starting to move up alongside it but that’s what silver is Guys Silver is a derivative derivative play on Gold’s capacity to out outperform inflation the the cost of holding gold the the carry cost the inflation burden on gold that’s what silver tracks so if you want higher silver price if you want silver to be at all-time highs and U Break Out you need gold to do the same thing versus inflation so that’s one of the big charts that I show people when every time I hear that silver you know it’s it’s lagging gold it’s no it’s it’s doing exactly what it’s supposed to do so if you want gold the silver prices to go higher you want gold to keep outperforming inflation and yeah it was a big turn around here see yeah that chart kind of uh led the led the breakway oh man almost one year Kevin since I did that chart July 4th 2023 but you know there was indications that that thing was going to move upwards and it’s the same thing for miners I don’t like miners track gold versus SPX so I I could overlay of course there’s outperforming miners uh you know but the mining indices they track gold versus SPX there I’ll do it right now for you guys so let’s say I do gold XA USD divided by SPX so that’s and a lot of people I could put what do you want me to put I could put the Aza Aza is the precious metals fund since 1968 and I’ll put on log scale and look guys I’ll just zoom out and you’ll see that this is gold versus SPX this is the Aza chart and as I’m moving a a chart up and down you’ll see that it’s tracking gold versus SPX so as gold versus SPX has not done new highs it’s not breaking out yet here the same thing’s happening for um for the miners right they’re going to get a lot of twins and that’s why we often mention we want to see gold versus SPX above do five when gold is worth half of SPX it’s gonna be close to technical breakout almost a horizontal breakout line or slightly uh angled one which we give more value to those breakouts right it’s way more important to have a horizontal line breakout than a slight a steep one right there’s more there’s less downwards momentum when you have these horizontal line breakouts so that that’s what the miners are again the miners are properly priced when Gold’s able to outpace uh SPX and those Capital flows and that goes back to the first chart I showed you your miners they’re going to do fine nominally right so that’s what all all this hangup is about you want to really make sure gold op forms SPX and it leads me back to the the chart the first chart I had Ted which was the gold was just the silver chart so everybody wants to know what’s happening Nally to Silver and let me find it silver is hitting some very idential identif identifiable resistance since the 2011 to 2013 top there was a breakdown there’s this concept called either pivot lines or I like we like calling them walls previous support turn resistance so when you have support support support that breaks down as soon as you’re below it converts that support into resistance right that means all the bag holders here they’re trapped and if ever the price even it’s years later it comes back to that level people say oh my goodness we’re back where I got trapped I wna I Want to Break Even I I don’t want to tell my wife like I lost money and you sell right you they sell they sell they sell so every time you try to go up above if there’s still sellers the price goes back down until that wall you eroded it right like water drick Ling down hitting it and eventually it breaks and then the Dam breaks so we need that $28 level to really really break and look it was crazy on the shorter time frames here it was it was silver sree all over again about uh two three weeks ago remember like Silver’s Going Bonkers it was it was melting through that monthly defined resistance on the shorter time frames but the higher the time frame the more important the breakout will be and look we’re at the end of the month now and uh Silver’s back below this it’s a wick I don’t like it I don’t like that volume guys I’m sorry that volume it’s telling me that it’s blowoff top type volume it could have been breakout type volume if the price would have closed above 28 but it didn’t so now you have to see that as people that are trapped right everybody that bought at 28 20 like on the smaller time frames these guys now they’re become resistance because if the price goes down and the price starts going back up they’re going to want to break even it’s a psychology right like if the price doesn’t rocket in your direction H you know you can say oh my goodness I got lucky and I’m going to exit so but it was very good though there was a know there was a trend line here break a horizontal a slightly angled one so that was pretty good there was a breakout but now this 28 guys is the is the level to watch you want a solid monthly close above that but right now it’s it’s just uh there’s a there’s a correction happening there for gold for silver on the short time frames and you just look all tops start with bullish looking consolidation patterns that fail all tops start like that so you got to wait and hope that that whatever correction we have on a short time frames is just nice and resolves you know over time and after that you have to wait but jumping the gun as soon as you realize you’re in a correction you got to step aside you know or you could pray and hope but look why pray and hope it resolves upwards and you don’t want to get trapped again there you don’t just just don’t know how long there that things going move sideways absolutely wow excellent breakdown once again um Kevin did you have did you want to move on to uranium now is there anything else you wanted to add to the silver well yeah there’s there’s a gold chart as well so I suppose taking a quick look at gold before looking at your ra would be would be a good thing this is the gold road map that um I’ve put out just just very recently to try and visualize for people what I think um is a high probability path for gold over the next several years so I put a forecast out back in 2019 when gold was down at around $1,300 and the forecast was that it would hit $2,000 Trend sideways for for about three four years and then in 20 round about now 2024 would break to the upside people can see that that forecast on on on my social media channels of course and so that particular gold forecast needs refreshing and updating that’s kind of all history now and that’s happened and and that was all based on the cup and handle pattern and other sort of technical analysis techniques that um led us to believe that there’ll be a you know a painful long consolidation we broke out from that and the 2000 area has now switched from being resistance to being support okay uh so we’ve moved up as I said to round about that 2,400 area the high 2300s to 2,400 now there is some natural resistance coming in between sort of 25 and 2700 that kind of region uh and that’s pretty um consistent with some other techniques including Fibonacci extensions and um Pole flag measured targets and all that kind of thing you can see this this um flag pole here this is flag and then me so there there are a number of techniques that give targets any between sort of 25 2700 we haven’t quite reached that um 25 to 2700 area yet now we’re seeing quite a bit of weakness with gold pulling back as I speak down below I think they below 2300 yet I haven’t looked in the last hour or so but I think the question right now is whether we back test the support in the 2 to 2100 area now or whether this little pullback um doesn’t go very much further before accelerating towards that Target area it’s pretty much a coin flip I think whether it back test that area now or extends higher over the next few weeks before pulling back but either way um I’d be surprised if we don’t come back for a final sort of monthly defined um back test of that sort of breakout area we we’ve already tested it on the daily and weekly time frame but not on the higher time frames and given the size of this pattern it would make a lot of sense if we did come back down to to test that area hey Kev yeah sorry I just saw Jesse There He just sold all his gold while you were talking how’d you do that Jesse now you can’t see my hands I’m clicking I’m I’m putting in putting in sell orders but the long-term picture given what we’ve been talking about with the capital rotation the stock markets and all the other sort of weight of evidence is that pullbacks despite them being you know perhaps sizable pullbacks this is a 15 20% pullback for gold could even be a bit more sort of towards 25% It’s Not Unusual and silver of course moving 30 to 40% to the downside is perfectly normal price action in a silver bull market happens multiple times in in every silver bull market so don’t get stuck on the idea that you know silver can’t move from 50 to 25 before going up to 100 and coming all the way back down to you know these these big drops are are normal for for for silver and you know for gold as well so you can see here we’ve seen some big drops in the past even in the bull markets you see these 15 20% drops that take place over over a period of several months so it’s it’s nothing new it’s perfectly normal price action but in terms of the long-term targets I I would be somewhat surprised if we’re not at least at the sort of area around $8,000 to $12,000 by the end of this decade so the technical analysis techniques that that I use sort of suggest that 8 10 12,000 is an entirely reasonable Target in fact you can see the um this is this green dotted line here is an extension of the a threeyear moving average if I wants to put on the chart and by measuring the distance above the moving average you can get a target a reasonable Target and somewhere around 40% above the three-year moving average is a perfectly reasonable uh Target so um and if we move to anywhere like 100 to 150% above the moving average as we did at the end of the last bull market then as I say 12,000 or or so is is entirely entirely possible so that’s the general road map um that we’ve got replaces the one that out in 2019 and looking at uranium that you mentioned there the uranium road map is still completing its cup patter or Arc pattern um as gold has already done gold of course reached its Arc Target of $2,000 several years ago before before forming the the handle on that uh so so uranium has got sort of basing pattern same s recovery pattern been Guided by A Perfect geometric Arc also the three-year moving average um and what’s taking place at the moment looks pretty standard consolidation pullback in the middle of a resistance Zone and of course we broke out above the $24 area which was sort of a stage to breakout broke out from this flag pattern here so the initial surge the um for the uranium this is ur by the way it’s the UR ETF uranium minus ETF the initial surge the long pullback secondary Surge and it looks like a normal bull market cons consolidation unless we fall below the threeyear moving average I don’t really have any major concerns for the uranium sector it’s all looking pretty good pretty bullish at the moment so the the long-term targets or the longer term targets are up towards the top right hand corner of this Arc which uh will put us probably above sort of 90 $90 or so but currently the next stage of the move probably puts us somewhere near 50 50 to $65 that sort of area so it’s all looking pretty pretty bullish for Uranium um I know there’s perhaps some people getting a little bit frustrated at the moment the last couple of days we’ve seen some nice moves for for Uranian miners but um it all looks perfectly in line with our with our projections and our forecast yeah and I think you get that frustration lot of that comes from social media the fact that news gets transmitted instantly people are checking the price every day people buy in seeing all this bullish froth on Twitter you know like I’m sorry I’m part of the Twitter uranium community and I love it but it’s not the place you want to go for investment advice or for for any sort of information about uranium because it’s literally just bullish memes and people talking about how uranium is going to rip and go to the sky and so people buy into these things and very often they don’t position size correctly they Yol blow into junior explorers with no Discovery or or something like people companies with no path to clear production then they wonder why their portfolios in the in the there’s a very good point you just touched on there Jesse which I’ll just mention you know risk management and uh managing your position size using sound risk and money management protocols is is absolutely essential in this kind of thing and by the way chart technical charts if you’re not used to looking at them and you’re more used to thinking about the fundamentals and weighing up the fundamental factors just bear this in mind the technical chart is the physical representation of every known fundamental Factor so I could spend many many hundreds of hours researching the market or I could look at the price chart and the price charts kind of done that for me because the price chart tells me where the support is tells me where the resistance is tells me where the volume support is it it puts all that information very conveniently down into a nice pretty picture for me and if you can learn the language of technical chart analysis then you can learn to interpret interpret but really what the fundamental stories are for all of these instruments whether it’s uranium or gold or silver or the stock market the technical chart is just the physical representation of everything that everybody knows all the market participant know about the fundamental factors great well uh did you want to move on to energy now guys just in the interest of time P or Patrick do you have anything quickly that you wanted to add to the uranium conversation before we we dive into energy yeah no it’s like everybody just match your time frame with the chart so if somebody Kevin’s showing you a monthly candle chart with like 20 30 years of data it’s like you know you look at Twitter and there’s a 5% down day in uranium or 10% upate that it’s it’s it’s irrelevant you know you have to look at the time frame to match your expectations or else you’re just dead man walking right there going to be you’re an uptrend a secular Bull uptrend and then there’s a um a correction on the on the daily chart and then you’re going to sell everything and then after that it’s going to rip higher you know everybody’s went through those emotions because they’re too close to the steering wheel right so if you’re a day trader fine look at the shorter time frames but if you’re an investor and you’re trying to catch these longer term rate rides then you have to zoom out on a higher time frame yeah absolutely um let’s take a look at the energy sector uh obviously from a fundamental perspective I think it looks very good um however you have the the chatter out there that well we’re going to have a global recession and that’s going to crush the demand for oil so I’m wondering what the charts are telling you um I see here you’ve got a a crude oil um SPX priced in crude oil that’s interesting to walk us through this all right well again same exercise I did with gold you want in a bull market for oil you need to be outperforming SPX you will not be have a bull market for oil if you’re not outperforming SPX or it won’t be as robust you know you got to you got to beat SPX they’re the that’s where the money goes you have to beat that so I hear same thing 145 years of data that’s all fine some uh some some tops here sideways Rising trend lines same thing like I explained to you with the gold chart the seven-year rate of change when that thing is as SPX goes up higher highs versus oil but the the rate of change lower highs that’s some bearish possible bearish Divergence and once that cookie crumbles and you have a technical breakout here the bottom pane is the actual oil chart and then you have a technical breakout for oil while it’s breaking out vers PX while the rate of change is going negative it’s it this like the weight of evidence right check mark check mark okay I’m good so here we had the first like a mini bull era for oil back in the 1913 it ran same thing here 19 uh late 1940s early 1940s it ran but here’s where it gets interesting we had bigger runs here in the 1970s we had a crazy run here this is the nifty50 topping breaking down versus oil going the 7year rate of change for that racial plummeting and then oil just went Bonkers in the 70s like huge and I’m sure some people said can’t go up that high it’s going to break everything well look if they’re destroying your purchasing power you gotta you got to let that thing uh you know ride up the oil price and it’s also the oil price relative to SPX right if it’s overvalue versus SPX that means there’s a lot of fuel for it to reset right and it resets so much here it’s crazy in 1980 oil had retraced uh 1920 there so that means like for 60 years it’s just was simply retesting lows or highs it did versus SPX some 60 years later here’s the the next run for SPX versus oil but look breakdown from the top uh lower highs momentum unwinding and a beautiful technical breakout here higher high higher lows and here horizontal plane higher highs breakout all the words I’m using it’s like the observations like the bullish observations you guys should be check marking you know we’s saying he’s saying horizontal breakout line check higher lows check higher highs check breakout versus or SPX breaking down versus oil check that makes a bull run a more powerful and sustained Bull Run likely and again same thing again SPX resets versus oil and then after that the whole cycle repeats again here blow off top for SPX versus oil remember oil was negative I thought about filling up my pool I have a 60 lit 60,000 l pool I was thinking about filling up with oil there as like I wasn’t thinking straight I should have just like bought oil Futures but in my crazy mind I said let’s just fill up the PO the pool of oil it was it was negative the price like how did that make sense what they’re giving it away I never understood how you could have negative oil but I guess like contango and all that stuff there backwardation were there I think there was oil tanks filling up to the point where they no longer had storage in in some places I think in Cushing Oklahoma where where so much of the oil was kept that there was actually a storage glut so they could pay people to take it off their hands for for a brief moment in time crazy crazy talk but but in the abyss of it people are still doubting it it’s like oh maybe I’ll stay negative forever it’s like like what you don’t think it’s crazy because at tops we always think it goes up and at bottoms we always think it goes down it’s human nature unless you’re looking at charts to see where turn the turnaround is right and look at this massive top or I could say possible massive top for SPX versus oil so we have a rising trend line here one two three touches if that thing breaks down here that that’s a possible massive head and shoulder stop for SPX and if that breaks down that’s going to Mark a new bull eror for oil and look at that the move $300 oil is not off the table easy it the momentum is is breaking down the setups like totally there so if there’s a market sell off now the recession but once that’s out of the way my goodness the purchasing power destruction the the like whatever money they have to print to save the the US Stocks the next times they tumble is going to is going to catapult oil like the if it ever Clos Above This breakout line I think it’s maybe that 115 120 if it goes above that goodness gracious Jesse there it’s like uh hang on hang on to your oil stocks not Financial advice yeah well that’s exactly what I’ll be doing um well guys this has been an incredible conversation I I love your unique approach to charting and you you bring so much wisdom and knowledge to the game I think people should be paying more attention to to just technical analysis in general as well as the work that you guys are doing um so why don’t you tell us about Northstar bad charts.com what it is exactly you do there where people can find it uh fill us in yeah it’s just coming up to three years of Northstar bad charts.com at the moment we’re both on Twitter of course you can find me at Northstar charts on Twitter and Pats bad charts one on Twitter uh but we were just getting a bit little bit inundated with requests for information all that kind of stuff so we’ve got a smaller audience on our website which makes it more manageable that’s uh our star bad charts.com as you say and we cover everything we we’re not sort of uh tied to gold or silver or uranium or anything in particular we’re tied to technical analysis and we follow the evidence for the technical analysis so that we always steer our members and subscribers towards whatever it is that is uh having good-look technical charts and was outperforming at the time so yeah you’ll find much more of this kind of stuff on the website lots of podcasts and uh we’ve got a um celebratory uh two-day special offer actually for anybody that wants to to uh to join us uh over the weekend noon Friday to noon Sunday 50% discount so uh yeah why not treat yourself great well I’ll put a link in the description below to Northstar bad charts.com as well as both of your Twitter so people can follow you there gentlemen thank you again for coming on the show it’s been an honor it was an honor for us Jesse thanks man yeah the honor is all ours thank you

Patrick Karim and Kevin Wadsworth bring their immense experience in charting and technical analysis to this masterclass on evaluating commodities. The duo present and explain compelling charts for gold, silver, uranium, and energy, along with explaining how they manage risk in the volatile commodity markets.

For more content from VRIC host Jay Martin, please visit Jay Martin University at https://jaymartinuniversity.com/

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Northstar & Badcharts: https://northstarbadcharts.com
Follow Patrick on X: https://twitter.com/badcharts1
Follow Kevin on X: https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts

00:00 Introduction
00:36 Broad Market and Gold
16:08 Silver Outlook
29:08 Uranium
33:43 Energy Forecast

#gold #silver #uranium