Bitcoin [BTC]: This Is Just The Beginning ($48K Target Zone)

Bitcoin [BTC]: This Is Just The Beginning ($48K Target Zone)

[Music] bitcoin’s macro support is now at risk of failing which puts the next downside Targets in firm view so in this video here I will be talking about the triggers and signals I’m watching and also taking a look at the big picture to see if anything has changed there but before we dive into all the charts please remember that I’m not a financial adviser so always do your own G diligence and research and past results are not indicative of future performance all right before we get to the big picture stuff and even just crypto in general we take a quick look at the US dollar which in my opinion is one of the main driving forces of the markets right now both stock markets and cryptocurrency and just like I discussed in yesterday’s video around this period here it was looking like the US doar still wanted to go up it looked like we’re forming a higher low and the market wanted to push higher to retest some higher levels and if that was going to be the case it would likely put some pressure on stock markets cryptocurrency and anything priced in US Dollars which is exactly what we’ve seen over the last 24 hours so the main trigger I’m looking out for on the US dollar to suggest that asset prices are going to be feeling a little bit of ease because of course there’s been a fair bit of pain across the board is breaking beneath our trend line and also back beneath those old tops I like to keep things really really simple and that’s as simple as it needs to be for as long as the price is holding above these levels it’s technically strong on our lower term time frames here in the low term being the daily chart and until we can see a breakdown beneath those levels it is suggesting we’re reaccumulated getting ready to test some high prices so you can also add a 50% level into the mix to see where that price point comes in and from the current top down to that last low you can also see it’s back beneath those old tops which were acting as resistance and we’re likely going to be coming support if we come back down to retest them so for a price point on the index it’s around 105 so anything above around 105 again more likely consolidation and reaccumulation and it’s only going to be once we break down from that zone and start to hold that we can expect some longer lasting Trends to the north side of Bitcoin crypto and also stock market or at least that’s one view that I am tracking really really closely and something I’ve been sharing with you guys for quite a while now and it’s continuing to work out so we will see what will happen the next couple of weeks and if in fact we can start to see some early indications of a trend change but so far there’s no indications of the US dollar breaking down and we’re continuing to see pain in other assets all right before we get to the big picture stuff of cryptocurrency the macro view the macro cycle has anything changed there or not I’ll start out on the hourly time frame and then step it up into the higher term time frames so in yesterday’s video we were looking at the market in this period here I did say that I didn’t mind the look of a potential bottoming pattern but no Trends had turned up definitively and also had to expect selling pressure to come into the market as our 50% level and our pivot point so of course history will go on to prove that the Pivot Point worked once again we pumped into that price selling pressure came into the market and then we’ve dropped away significantly hard from there so there was signs of some rounding going on there’s still no signals to suggest the trends were actually changing and in fact we had that rejection right on 50% and the trends just did get smacked right back down again now hovering around $660,000 so for me to be seeing any signs of strength in this market I of course want to be seeing those Trends turn back up that’s as simple as it really needs to be when Trends are down on those higher term time frames as we’ve been tracking for quite a while now to do with the momentum shifting it’s going to take a fair bit of momentum from the other direction of the market we want to be seeing more than just the hourly and 4H hour Trends turn up because the daily trend has also been down for quite a while now as well but back to our hourly analysis here we are getting some support on that 60k pivot point but we need to be seeing these Trends turn up the one bar and the two bar and the 4our just to give the market a bit of a weight of evidence that the momentum is actually shifting so we can start to see that translate onto the daily and weekly but as you know the daily and weekly have also been down for quite a while as well but for early signs that the Market’s coming back to life on the hourly time frame we have to get back above that breakdown Zone and it’s not a very clear breakdown Zone at the moment but I would like to see price action back above at least that old low at around 62,000 bucks but better if it gets back on top of the 50% level which now needs to be adjusted if we do break to Fresh low from where we are but that 50% level is just over 36 63,000 rather 400 bucks getting back above that price point the market would be a little bit safer to expect an intermediate low being in the market and anything up until that price point it can still just be a deadcat bounce before selling overwhelms the market again to push to low prices now that’s it for the hourly chart you can clearly see that the market does still have a downward pull so there’s no reason to expect anything else until we start to get evidence of the opposite to take place up now to the 4-Hour time frame where you can also see that clear rejection on the 50% level and also like I’ve been sharing with you guys for quite a while now we’ve not seen any consecutive closes and high lows above this trend line here you can see that we pierced it we did not get any high lows above the line we pierced it again hitting the 50% level and we did not not at any higher lows above the line and yet again we’ve just been smacked right back down again or at least Bitcoin has been and if you’re on the wrong side of the market you most certainly would have been as well but to keep things simple on our 4-Hour time frame we can just watch this one trend line for the time being this one here is now no longer relevant but just looking at the overhead trend line once we can start to see some price action above that zone there which is very similar to what we’re looking at on the hourly time frame to do with that $63,500 it’s the same thing on the 4our chart at least close enough for what we’re looking at here with our trend line we do have to continue to respect the support for as long as it does hold but you can see that each time it’s coming back to hit the support Zone it is just going that little bit lower and of course we haven’t been breaking any tops in between so price action is just suggesting some general weakness until we start to see some breaks back above those levels and holds and high lows and all of that kind of thing and not only that for our Trends to actually change direction so if you are wondering about the swing chart and the trends how I get all of my trading signals I would recommend you check out that second link in the description below where we can learn more about that you can try out the Tia against swing indicator for free for 7 days if you don’t like it just cancel it and no harm done but what we’re looking out for with our Trends is for our 4our 1 bar and our 4our 2 bar Trends to turn up which then increases the chance that our daily time frame will also turn up but as you can see here we’re just neutral we don’t have green we don’t have red there’s no definitive trend on these lower term time frames and that’s mostly to do with that recent volatility in the last session how we broke higher and then we broke lower but we really want to be seeing those higher lows and this to flash green on at least a couple of indicators to let us know that our time frame over a higher degree is also going to turn back up or at least increase the chance of that happening but we have no definitive trend on our lower term time frames we’re just chopping around in some widening ranges which is always a concern cuz typically that can lead to some shorter term distribution or at least distribution relative to the time frame that you are looking at and as you can see here we are just getting those widening ranges as for our high time frame Trends you can see we’re down on our twar and down on our weekly so some very clear patterns there so the Market’s going to need to do a fair bit of work to get back into a position of at least neutral and green for us to see some higher prices and until that takes place we have to respect what the Market’s doing and the market is just ranging and even heading low with those highs in the market so a much better place to hang out to suggest we’ve seen a very important low in the market is all the way above around $67,000 once we can break the 50% level and break on top of those last two swing tops then it would be looking like we’ve seen an intermediate low and the end of the big picture correction but until that comes about there’s still every chance the market is going to head lower and test some lower levels now I do have in the chart here 48,000 bucks as a key level to be looking out for and I’m going to justify that for you in a moment but if we did see that breach 50k and drop back into the 40s it would be another 20% from where we are and around 35% from the all-time high now 35% in the big picture in terms of previous Market Cycles previous Bitcoin Cycles it would still be the smallest correction in a bull market cycle typically there’ve been anywhere from 40 50 60% Corrections throughout an entire bull market cycle this cycle here all we’ve seen so far is 20% nothing more than around 22 or 23% if my memory serves me correctly you can see the last correction was 21 we had 21.7 20 and then 22.6 so we haven’t seen anything more than 22.6 so far but if we did see that drop down into the sub $50,000 range down to 48k it would be a 34% correction which certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibilities whether I think it’s going to happen or not is another story at this stage here I still think it’s very low probability of getting back to that zone but in terms of Market structure it could still do that and remain in a very bullish Market structure and that does come back down to some Elliot wave analysis which I’ll get to in just a moment but before that I wanted to recap on this chart here which I shared with you guys I think it was last week or maybe two weeks ago where we’re looking at three red weeks which suggests that the momentum had shifted and we’re going to be seeing lower prices now that’s exactly what’s happened yet again now this is different to my three bar rule where I’m looking for three down days to suggest a larger correction we got that signal a long time ago and it’s played ball perfectly I shared that with you guys at the time as well it just takes a fair bit of time to actually develop so that three down days which is another one of my favorite signals happened all the way back here from the all-time high so when we get that signal we can suggest a larger correction to take place but of course it doesn’t mean it has to to happen overnight we did get this pattern of distribution and we are heading lower now this signal here is on the weekly chart where we’re looking at three red weeks which does often suggests the momentum is Shifting and we’re going to need some time to put in a low and then break to new highs again now like I showed you in this entire bull market cycle so far it’s happened four times the first time it happened was when we had the collapse of Banks and everyone was getting scared that’s the only time it hasn’t worked in the bull market the next three times from there we did see three red weeks the momentum shifted and we did see new low prices before marking the actual low you can see three red weeks we pumped a little bit dumped put in a new low then this time here we had three red weeks a big dump another three red weeks another sell off to put in a new low before actually marking the Bottom now what we saw this time and I also shared with you guys at the time was three red weeks we also had a little pump up in this bar here but we’ve now broken to Fresh lows so this signal is now complete it’s done its job we’ve had fresh lows how low the market actually goes is another story but I hope you all prepared for the potential of lower prices last week and now we’ve obviously seen the signal play ball once again as for the wave in the macro cycle like I’ve been sharing with you guys for well over a month now I did suspect we’d seen the top of wave three and that we’re in a macro Wave 4 so I hope everybody who’s been following along for at least a month or so was well prepared for the potential of lower prices which we’ve now seen and we’ve just broken to Fresh lows in Bitcoin but the total market cap hasn’t quite broken to Fresh lows now the reason why I was saying that the potential of 48k is well on the cards has to do with the Elliot wave cycle and one of the main guidelines that I do track now I’m just trying to clean my charts up for you so I can show you exactly what talking about to do with 48k and where that sits in terms of Market structure but it would get all the way back down to this peak when the ETFs were announced now in terms of Market structure and Elliot wave guidelines that’s definitely in the realm of possibilities now it’s not a rule but rather a guideline where the end of a wave four will typically breach the wave four of a previous cycle and by that I mean you can see this wave four here in white you have wave three wave four it wouldn’t be surprising to see this way for to come back into that zone to end the correction now it doesn’t have to happen and I actually don’t think it will happen this time but it’s definitely a possibility and something that Elliot wave analysts are always looking out for to do with potential end of Correction zones now what I want to be seeing first before getting too excited about a sell off into the 50ks and a recovery is of course to see the breakdown of 60 Grand some closes and lower highs and of course those Trends to continue into that zone there’s no point getting too far ahead of ourselves and there are a couple of other main support zones above 48k which are likely going to hold the market up as well even if it is temporary but price action is still holding at 60k for now so it’s going to be interesting to see what the next couple of days brings and if in fact bounce away from here or start to trickle out to test some lower prices so while 48k is certainly on the horizon for a major downside Target we don’t have any confirmation of a big breakdown yet because 60 Grand is still holding for now but if and when the time comes this is certainly going to be an area to watch where most people are going to be losing their mind because Bitcoins back under 50 Grand but we’ll have to take this one day at a time until that comes about we have 60 Grand and 56 Grand to be keeping on top of and of course all of those short-term Trends which are going to be giving us a lead what the high time frames are going to be doing so that’s all I’ve got for you in today’s market update where we’ve covered Us doll Bitcoin on the macro and the short term if you do want more from us in Tia crypto hit that link at the top of the video description where you’ll get free weekly reports from us and be kept in the loop with everything else we have going on over there that’s it for me today wishing you more health wealth and happiness and until next time I’ll catch you then [Music]

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⏰ Timestamps
00:00 $48k?
00:30 US Dollar
02:10 BTC 1-Hour
04:14 Bitcoin 4-Hour
06:16 BTC Daily
07:56 Macro Analysis

#cryptonews #bitcoin #crypto

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