FOMC MEETING LIVE with CRYPTO MARKET REACTION
leave me [Music] wind [Music] [Music] my [Music] well hello there and good afternoon how are you doing today what’s up everyone how is it going sorry I’m just screwing around we’re a few minutes early and with it being a few minutes early I’m just looking at races right now okay I’m just looking for some races maybe some 40 8 Hour races maybe some 100K Mountain Climb Races maybe some loops around a lake maybe some backyard Ultra yes Peter manahan says good morning Claus just got out of the mountains been out of cell phone range for 3 Days isolation on top of the mountain Las Vegas meditating clearing my eyes so to speak good for you Peter that’s what I’m kind of doing too I’m looking to see what kind of races that I can clear my eyes clear my brain what’s up trick how are you doing see virtuals in the house as well Paul is hanging out with you Paul is uh uh sorry just looking at a whole bunch of comments coming in now all right everyone’s got the sound working what is up sorry I’m just screwing around looking at races I’m just seeing what I want to do hanging out with me is the shat yes William Shatner hanging out in the house as well heat map is red I think I think we know what the deal is um there there was a lot of optimism priced into the market right let’s just let’s just be real here okay I think I think a lot of us that have watched our um not that we knew that this was coming but we’ve been talking about it for a while like and we’ve had we’ve had really good conversations all of us here um we’ve had a lot of good conversations in the chat uh a lot of good conversations in the comments some good emails going back and forth and and we are we’ve been sitting here going you know what the indicators are not good United States I got US inflation up on the screen yeah okay we went up quick we went down quick and now look sideways action sideways not good not good at all okay now wait let’s take this a step further check this out this is for the UK all right so for the UK same thing right inflation went up quick it went down real quick and now it’s kind of okay I mean it’s not as as stalling as the United States is the United States is in much more clear stall but this deceleration isn’t as quick anymore so that has people kind of you know curious right I mean that people are just kind of like okay great are the 20s going to suck are rates going to be High I mean just what is the mess that’s going on a lot of out there are talking about xrp stand right around that 50 Cent Mark very good observation now let me share with you something here okay cuz I knew you guys were going to GS we’re going to bring up stuff like this okay so check this out all right let’s go to cryptocurrencies now watch what I have up here on the screen this far right column is for the last 7 Days Bitcoin down about 12% eth 9 BB9 Soul 18 ouch Mama xrp down 4.5 so so far uh the best out of the group uh 19% down is Doge ton coin 16% now let’s dive specifically into ton look at this pumps pumps and dumps sniff hanging out with this as well what’s up sniff sniff says C are you worried about what they’ll find on Diddy’s hard drive I never did business with Diddy so I think I will be safe others probably not so much thanks for hanging out with us sniff Robert Melvin the Rev is hanging out with us as well rev what do you think about the ton chart up on the screen check it out look at this big pumps over seven dollar and now $463 the the market is not holding its gains it’s really it’s really really weird the the the big pumps that we’re seeing in things um B&B is still holding it fairly well right let’s be real here BNB is is it got close to or was touching 600 now 548 that’s not that far off you know no I I’m not on Diddy’s hard drive no there are no picks of me on Diddy’s hard drive there are not okay I I I make sure I license my content so that I get paid for when I do what I do virtual says go socks that’s right I’m repping the socks hoodie by the way everyone the socks still suck um they’ve lost two in a row against the twins they had a three-game win streak before that but that was against Tampa Tampa probably not as good as we thought but yes goox their game starts here in about 15 minutes a in 15 minutes actually Socks game is 25 minutes in 15 minutes is the Fed Fed rate decision sniff says Diddy likes fit white boys and and I okay I I will admit I am fit I am looking to see what kind of race I want to do whether it’s a 48h hour a 12-h hour loop one 100K 100 m I’m still trying to figure it out still trying to figure it out wig bust is saying Phillies I I I saw the socks play the Phillies and and here’s my observation all right my observation when the socks played the Phillies was very simple the Phillies looked like men like bom and all those characters the dude with the grizzly beard they look like men the socks players look like and I’m not like knocking College dudes but like a college dude’s body versus like a man’s body who’s in his like late 20s it just the Phillies look like men legit man look like men revs hanging out says meet me at the dumpster I got matches yeah dumpster fire is the situation here but Bitcoin is melting down the most from this but we’ve all thought about this right we’ve all thought that rates were going to be paused for a while now here’s the thing look at this now you have people saying well wait a minute there’s a 1.1% chance that JP is going to raise rates today whoa whoa whoa okay let’s be real here he’s not going to raise rates but the fact that there’s actually people putting money on this action on a 1.1% come on now come on now Joe buddy throwing in the baseball reference Joe I love it Joe says the bull market lasts 16 months it’s only the fourth inning in a ninth inning game quarter four will be the beginning of the end and the end of quarter1 2025 all right Joe loved it except when you went from Innings to quarters you’re going to lose a lot of people here no I get what you’re saying dude I’m giving you a hard time no for real let’s just hope though that the bull market is not the white socks okay let’s hope that the bull market is some like top tier team not the white socks um so no way in hell and that’s right trick no way in hell is Jerome going to be raising rates but it’s the idea that that that’s the this hit is on the table a month ago right a month ago it was 1.8% right here to lower it now it’s a 1.1% to hit I mean that’s crazy crazy too damn dangerous says hi Clauson Holland here xrp is up xrp is fairing this storm fairly well seeing it right now hanging out at 51 Cent so xrp holding on to itself better than Bitcoin right now uh dot also as well up almost 7% so some things are moving in the market Doge down big ton down big uh optimism is holding up pretty well too check out optimism can’t deny that up almost 8% last 24 hours Mark Simmons says Hey clous listening from the UK no more baseball talk under now wait a minute wait a minute though you’re listening from the UK don’t they have baseball in London in June you’re telling me you don’t want to pay what is it now like 80 lbs for like the worst cheapest tickets to like game you probably care nothing about dude they’re charging 80 lbs I saw for for uh London baseball tickets all right Mark I got you I got you now let’s talk though UK inflation if UK inflation stays high you’re going to be on the same nasty path that the United States is which is it’s going to stay high for longer and when you stay high for longer what happens yes you forget stuff I understand yes maybe you eat a little bit more than what you should yeah maybe you ramble sometimes okay I get that but when things stay high for longer you get used to it so you get used to the idea of things going up more once that becomes something normal to you once high prices become normal and acceleration of prices becomes normal that sets you up for a hyperinflation play that’s not good that’s that’s not good at all it it’s one thing to have inflation right but it’s one thing to have persistent inflation where people start becoming accustom to it where people are sitting here going you know what dude inflation is high we we could tolerate it we got enough cash if if people start taking that attitude and if governments keep taking that attitude that’s that’s a problem that’s a big big problem so I don’t know we have to we do we have to be concerned um we have to be concerned that that we need to be monetarily strong we have to be fiscally smart especially now because I mean if inflation stays High PPI stays high it’s going to be a mess John slack says I could see us Giants dumping Bitcoin right now just to over the Chinese ETFs that come out yeah Chinese ETFs come out and there’s 11 million in volume the same one day in the United States was like 4.6 billion or something that’s come on come on China Chinese ETFs man there was there good good calling that John there was there was crap for Action from Chinese ETFs hold on let me just take a quick little drink here electrolytes by the way this is like a high high electrolyte mix salty lime like for real it’s like a almost like a healthy Margarita but without the booze it’s it’s it’s not bad but it’s not good either so yeah you don’t want inflation to stay high for a while now in 9 minutes we’re going to get the announcement that they’re going to pause all right let’s just say it right now we’re going to get the announcement that they pause 1.1% chance that it is going to be raised but most likely a pause oh now some money’s changing look at the money changing money changing 2.4% to the lowering just throwing it out there but no for real we know Jerome is going to take a pause this is people just playing on the probability side both with uh in terms of what’s happened so at 2:00 we’re going to get the announcement 2:30 Jerome goes on the mic we’re going to be watching the crypto Market seeing what the reactions are we’re going to be talking specific prices of some of our favorites here we’re going to be talking about also who’s fairing the best over these last seven days coconut monkey says they want more Banks to fail and consolidate easier to usher in the new Financial system the thing is uh coconut monkey our big risk right now is regional Banks um the the regional ones that had high risk portfolios they’re the ones that are yeah yeah that that’s the those are the risky ones right there Regional Banks Edwin thank you very kindly Edwin dropping support on the channel oh hold on I’m trying to hit like on here my guy dropping support on the channel everyone please give Edwin A big thank you as it is customary that anyone supports the channel we thank them because I greatly appreciate and youall do too CU it keeps the channel sponsor free um John slack says what’s the best way to delete our trillions of debt create a new currency backed by gold and money printer goes bur again the only thing is is can you really C can you really like forgive debt because like think about this right like if you just wipe debt off someone’s taking a hit on that right someone is taking a hit okay I mean let’s say this right let’s say you have an auto loan and you’re like you know what I’m just going to say f it and not not do the auto loan anymore all right cool so the bank still takes a hit on that they didn’t get their money yeah they could auction off the car get something for it get as much as they can for it but they’re never going to get all their money back so it’s a loss so no matter what you still are writing up the loss so that that’s just something where like the idea for giving debt it’s just I guess the problem is is someone’s on the hook for it someone needs to get the money and and you know like for real like it I would be pissed like you know let’s just say if I was a landlord of you know like a 16 you know tenant like housing type thing and all of a sudden they all stiffed me and I was just like well great now what do I do I just got to take the loss for that month until I get new people and that’s that’s rough man so yeah we got to we got to think about the idea of forgiving debt just someone’s got to pay it man someone’s definitely definitely got to pay it uh Robert Melvin says uh they just raised capital gains tax for the end of July here in Canada oh I read that before you could delete it kachow kachow uh houses are going up on the market fast on here to capitalize on profits beforehand um where where I’m at right now we still are at a massive housing shortage they’re trying to build out here they’re just not building fast enough and what they’re building is expensive AF man wig bus is saying V has done well the last seven days thanks for hanging out with us Paul my guy uh let’s take a quick look at the heat M because we got five more minutes for the announcement from Drome po you got Bitcoin at 57 e thunder3 at 2920 BNB okay 50 bucks off that 600 part BNB is not doing too bad either dot not doing too bad either up 7% last 24 Edwin is the man thank you very much Edwin I appreciate and seriously thank you everyone out there that supported the channel whether it’s with like super chats super thanks um comments uh positive ones just liking the video seriously thank you to everyone just in in all the support you guys and gals have done it’s just been a a really great journey that like I it it’s become like a daily part of what I do and and hanging out with everyone has become a daily thing so thank you to everyone because this is this is really fun this is this is a lot of fun to hang out and explore this stuff xrp holding on pretty strong here as well almost at that 51 Cent Mark but I think what we have to start looking at is okay if we’re not going to get the rate cut here and if we’re not going to get the rate cut in June and if we’re not going to get the rate cut in July or September so then we start looking at going okay well there’s not going to be a pre-election pump right a lot of markets really look for a pre-election pump and I think that’s that’s something that we have to be careful of because if money stays expensive you can’t pump as much because money just costs so darn much and and and and here and here this is this is how this goes okay this is how this goes when we when we look at the markets and when everyone is telling you oh Partnerships Moon oh Partnerships melting faces all like all that stuff that’s all well and good but remember economic conditions have to be feasible for that too okay unless it’s a complete like game Cher where it revolutionizes is the the world you know what I mean like like you you have to be understanding that if money is still expensive because inflation is high and because the fed’s not going to pause for a while then then the idea of melting faces that gets hard that gets really really hard uh alcoholic click says yes thank you thank you CL no thank you thank you for supporting the channel I really do appreciate it um why nobody has hit the like button because maybe everyone is busy uh touching other things I don’t know maybe the Subscribe button okay I don’t know maybe they’re touching the the volume button they want to turn it up because they’re driving in their car maybe they’re driving in their their Carrera 4S and they’ve got the top down and they’re like oh my God I can’t hear CLA so let me turn it up in the Carrera 4S yeah sorry so inflation is going to be a problem um and that means the 20s are going to be expensive it’s going to be an expensive generation uh my kids are going to have it pretty rough because this decade that they’re growing up in as young adults right um in their their their teens to mid 20s late 20s um you the it it’s going to be tough things are going to be expensive for the Youth coming out of college um I think I think that you’re going to see a lot of people struggle because the the debt is just going to keep catching up right I mean auto loans are insane so think what’s what’s one of the first things that like these these college kids college age kids do right to get their credit going they get a car you know so now they’re going to be paying a lot for interest and you’re going to see that in the whole 20s I I mean like I just that’s just I it’s just the reality of what we have to to digest right now so like I do I get the idea of mooning I get the idea of melting faces I get the idea of grow menal cry I get all of that right but like you know money’s just not being thrown around like a strip club anymore you know like during the roony Rona time people had a lot more money debt was cheap and there was a lot of money flowing around there was a lot of money printer go Burr Around The roony Rona time and people were spending like drunken Sailors and I know I know CL why are you ripping on the sailors I’m not ripping on the sailors unless it’s Michael sailor I love the Navy and all that stuff but my my point is is just it’s crazy Edwin’s got it right 60 seconds to go and hit that like button I would appreciate it coconut monkey is saying Casp is the way to go Casp is the way to go yeah I I do there are winners out there I think people have you know if you haven’t by now learned you you at least should try to have some side action right and I mean you got to at least start looking at not just putting everything on Longs and making sure you take some juicy profits because remember no one ever went broke taken profits and we know the market right now is way pulled back from what we even saw say like 10 days ago so if you don’t take the profits right those are unrealized gains and how much fun is it pretending to do in spend money when you can spend money I’m hitting the refresh button like a I almost said a really naughty thing I’m going to keep hitting the refresh button like a I almost said another naughty one here we go all right so the PDF is out here we go to support its goals the committee decided to maintain maintain we took a pause everyone ladies and germs to support its goals the FED decided to maintain maintain everyone Edwin saying side action the lady next door not in my neighborhood they old ladies out here yeah definitely could rip on Sailor a little bit rev I mean we we totally can but the FED decided to pause all right I’m going to put that down here in the chat give me a quick second fed decided to pause there we go here we go here we go all right let’s pin this up on the top now everyone sees that the FED decided to pause let me take a quick little drink here and then we’re going to get into some serious juicy data with the [Music] FED all right here we go recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid Pace job gains have remained strong and the unemployment rate has remained low inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated in recent months there’s been a lack of further progress toward the committee’s 2% inflation objective the committee seeks to maintain maximum employment inflation rate at 2% over the long run in assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy the committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic Outlook there you go everyone um uh alcoholic clicks is waiting for the next tip yeah it it seriously it’s been tips and dips man seriously pumps and dumps like if you it it the the general rule has been this the faster something goes up the faster it’s going to come on down so if you see something going on up and it doesn’t make sense why dude I get it ride the wave but make sure you line your Pockets with the green now uh oh more monkey business says Claus are you into mining crypto I I am into it not like I don’t mind crypto but I’m in like to it I love researching I love watching videos about it um I love the math behind it I seriously I I really dig crypto mining I think mining right like the way that uh it’s done via Bitcoin I think that’s the right way to incentivize the chain oh but it uses a lot of energy well you know what so do all our Poli politicians flying on private jets across the damn country until that changes give me my crypto mining Last Chance is hanging out with us what’s up last chance Last Chance says melt faces this Market couldn’t melt butter the only chance this Market has of melting face is if you hang out with me in the South and Run 100 K in the summer yeah that’s the only chance cuz for real money is just too expensive so what we’re looking at right now is that the FED decided to take a pause we knew that was going to happen no one is shocked by that but what we are shocked about is how Bitcoin has peeled back so quickly here now my thinking and My Hope okay my hope okay is that the market bounces back kind of gets us back up to that 60,000 for Bitcoin that would be nice that would be nice that would give us a lot more support than what we need but as you can see right now it’s Bitcoin and ton leading the way on the way down John slack says some of the mining rigs rigs in shipping containers are insane dude like some of the the setups that these people have and because think that when it comes down to mining the thing that really is like your biggest factor is what do you pay for electricity right I mean like that’s like the big variable right there what do you pay for electricity so like watching some of people tie the mining rigs into like Hydro power stuff like that is so freaking cool because you’re like look you’re harnessing the power of water moving in a stream I’m probably not going to argue with that boom done like that um Aunt ly’s hanging out with us what’s up Aunt Lyn a ly says CLA my little brother looks like we’re pausing get out your popcorn yeah I wonder if Jerome’s going to be a total ass this time um for those of you who were here in the last live stream do you remember where he told the guy he was like you need to like watch your place or something he said something along those lines and we were all like wait wait what what just happened like dude it was he was like rough like he was like you have to understand where you’re where you’re talking or where you’re talking or where you’re talking to something like that it was really rough man uh t uh tman Bond says inflation cannot be stopped ask Argentina if inflation ever came down yeah that’s dude that’s a big fear inflation can change Our Lives I think more than any other like geopolitical event outside of War out there because inflation can just drain the money of societies uh Rober Melvin says I’m expecting another big dump I just feel it I I the thing is is like I would love to see Bitcoin at 62 but the reality is is if the ETF fundamentals aren’t solid and the ETF fundamentals are what got us here then that means you’re you’re going to see some erosion and more profit taking that’s that’s you know that’s something you got to worry about uh Team B say pause means up later I hope not Jerome says check yourself Jerome definitely did say check yourself make xrp great again in the house hanging out with us what’s up to you yeah Jerome is like look I I can’t and but the thing is do you think there’s going to be political pressure on Jerome to pause you you think when these elections come out here in November that you know and and even more so okay even more so think of think of before that think of October right when it really matters because November is too late okay but you don’t think there’s going to be pressure put on PO for one rate cup before the election I I think like if if I were a betting man okay if I were a betting man and and and you were to be like clouse you know gun your head man like where would you put some action I would put action on a rate uh a rate hike or I’m sorry a rate cut right before uh the election the September contract that would that would be the only chance man that that is just that is just the thing uh an Lynn says inflation is just another form of Taxation at least give us a kiss before you screw us JP yeah give us a reach around before you us from behind yeah I just think about this the expectations like five weeks ago were three rate Cuts dude I I mean like I don’t know I don’t know man the Rev says that was my logic and then a swing to the upside around December just in time to look good after the elections and save xus now see that’s the whole thing is like I I I see that play too I do I see that play too I I just I mean economically can we afford it trick is saying second quarter of 2025 the hawk is landing trick gets a new name we’re going to be calling you the hawk my guy trick saying second quarter 2025 okay re realistically speaking if if we go with rates High second quarter of 2025 that would mean that you could see rates through 2028 staying elevated contrary to what the previous growth cycle was could you imagine the next three years being elevated like that because think about it and and and something and and Trick’s got a good point on this because what trick is essentially saying is look you got to be rough now you got to be rough now and you have to tackle inflation now because if you don’t you’re you drain everyone inflation just screws people it’s nuts man it’s it’s nuts yeah we’re somehow I’m going to figure out how to change Trick’s name to Hawk on here so when he types us what comes up but like I do it’s it’s a good point if you don’t tackle inflation now you can get screwed but but who’s who’s who’s the one screwing us with inflation like are y’all out there spending like drunken Sailors going oh dude you know screw this let’s just money printer go bur it no I think a lot of people have have been very um I don’t want to say cautious but they’ve been very respectful with their money you know um now now I admit I have been spending lately but it’s also because I’ve been taking profits and selling lately too so I mean there is that dynamic as well but I I just think monetarily stuff is just going to be expensive man I mean that’s just a problem I trix’s rates will never be low again I you know the the idea of what we saw during The roony Rona time that was a cash grab man that was a cash grab that is now just taxing the ever living hell out of all of us Patrick G says remember the 80s and the rates then um okay here’s a story for everyone so my dad uh was into business right and and he got a loan and he got a loan for his business and I’m trying to think if it was if he got the loan and because he did a franchise okay he got a loan it was in the late 70s and then he got a second location in the early 80s I thought it was and one of the two I don’t remember which one his rates were like 17 18 19% like I was like wait what did you just say 177 or 18 like 18 19% that’s just crazy so Patrick Dre great comment there saying remember the 80s and rates then yeah 70s and 80s had some Wicked rates man trick says look what’s happening around the world yeah and that’s the problem trick it’s not I I don’t want to say this is a consumer driven problem I really I really believe that this is a more governmental spending problem I I think that yes as consumers maybe we’re having a little fun okay I I’ll say this maybe as consumers we’re still spending more than we should maybe we shouldn’t be getting $1,600 a month uh M mobile you know Escalades and stuff like that you know may we should kind of back down with that just a little bit but I mean just to to see what’s happening with government spending government spending is so much more than than the Mom spending could ever be so much more more than like the dumb business spending I mean government spending I mean you know when we look at the the debt clocks and all that stuff we’re talking trillions everyone trillions man Trix says he was there when there were 177% yeah that’s I mean and I think rates have been so low for so long that that this is something where I mean could you imagine how slow we would be growing as a world could you imagine that how slow we would be growing as a world world if rates stay high for the next 10ish years that’s a that’s a lot of innovation that just gets thrown away a lot of innovation that gets thrown away uh Rob says the average interest rate in the US since Inception has been 5.18 these rates are normal people have short-term memories that have been spoiled the last few years 1.7 or 2.5% is not normal good point um I got my first house in the early 2000s and my rate was six six I think 6 and a half and then I remember a few years later I was able to like refi for like 5’5 or something like that five it was like 675 maybe I gotten into 5’5 somewhere around that range in there so yeah I I totally agree but see what happens though is it all becomes relative right so when when you open up the faucets the way you do and make money cheap for everyone again that takes time to mentally get over that right that spending habit takes time it takes time for people to change their habits um when we look at spending from governments it’s the same thing governments have just saying money printer gone B we’re giving money all over the place it doesn’t matter if it’s the Ukraine it doesn’t matter if it’s the Middle East I mean they are just all over the place with money spending so I think I think the the big thing we have to think of is it’s not so much us that’s really putting like the hit on inflation it’s here it’s it’s it’s it’s more the governments Joe buddy’s got a good comment loone sharks here in Puerto Rico charge 10% a month man yeah they had uh for those of you that do not live in the United States um we had a whole bunch of laws that were passed a few years ago about loone sharks and uh like those car title loans and so forth they were really screwing people over and what they did was was they passed a whole bunch of laws to limit the percentages but it’s still astronomic High I mean astronomically High trick says remember 2024 is not a normal year the elections trick you want to see something really cool you’re going to like this and for everyone to to kind of see like this is hold on I’m going to show you this is really cool all right this is saved on my phone see if you guys in Gs can see it I don’t know if you could see it it’s an article about elections that trick sent to me a while ago and I have been sitting on the this article for a long time like a long long time and the reason I’ve been sitting on this article because everything in there is so true this is a mega election cycle I mean a mega mega election cycle um coconut monkey says refi the house at 299 fix before Co hit well done dude that that that is a golf clap moment and the reason that’s a golf clap moment is because if you’re going to borrow money borrow it on the cheap well well played there that saves you a bunch of money um smartest people in crypto gather here that’s coming from the Rev we do we’ve got a we’ve got a very diverse and legit group of Minds on here and I think that’s the power of this channel is it’s it’s these thoughts that just get shared with each other now that being said I’ll be one of the first ones to say that like I don’t agree and y’all don’t agree with everything I say we don’t agree with each other says but we do this very I don’t want to say like nicely cuz sometimes I use naughty language but we do with respect with the idea that we all want to get better and get smarter with stuff so I love seeing the chat love seeing the conversation we do we’ve got a lot of Canadian viewers in here a lot of UK viewers a lot of viewers from the US as well remember we’ve got my man William Shatner over there in the background yep the shats hanging us we also got the PSA slabs up on the wall for the basball fans that is US baseball for you and a little bit of Canada mixed in for you at 2:30 p.m. Rome is going to go on the mic and look at beautiful DC beautiful love DC one of my favorite cities trick says don’t hold any crypto my bad no no no not bad at all the reason why is crypto has been crazy risky it’s been more like throwing darts at a board you watch ton pop pop and then drop really hard right you watched Solana reach high hpar was moving more a lot of these had some way way way bigger ones so yeah but it all depends everyone here is here because we all want to learn we want to have a little fun trick and I are big into selling metal stuff oh by the way check this out solid silver pretty cool solid silver what do you call this a nut cracker guy about like three 4 in tall something like that yeah thought it was really cool stuff we’re all hanging out here nacho football 2o just baseball um I I’m more of just a baseball guy just a baseball guy a Lyn says just love me some CL well thank you Aunt Linn don’t make me blush on cam my lighting isn’t perfect well it be hard to see me blush with a little bit of scruffiness that I got on my darts land like spaghetti give me a pool cute dude I for real man I mean yes we are all obviously we’re all here to get rich I mean come on now we’re not here for the tag if you’re telling me that you’re here for the tech I’m going to be like look look look what is the tech doing for you bro so yeah let’s I’m with you on that more monkey business but yeah we’re hanging out we’re waiting we’ve got 13 minutes till Jerome Powell comes on the mic let me do a quick hydration break here by the way after this I have to do a training session because I have a race coming up in like a couple days I’ve got a big race in July and I’m trying to find out my big race for the year a 12-hour race a random distance race 100K 100 mile a 48 hour race a Last Man Standing a dxy that’s what we’re talking about today everyone we’re talking about crypto we’re talking about hanging out we’re talking about the FED we’re talking about hey are we going to get the Christmas pump for the fed or the pre-election pump or we get nothing are we getting coal in our stockings this year coconut monkey says hopefully the lawsuit will be over the summer then we can find out if that’s what’s holding xrp back I do not think you’re going to get a resolution this summer uh I’m I’m not saying that to be negative um you’re going to have quite a few appeals filed off of the the fox documents so that’s going to take some time and then there’s even more procedur I mean we’ve got quite a bit of procedural stuff in each one of these procedural things we’ve had kind of like delays so far so I I I’m with you on that right I would love I would love to see the lawsuit over this summer but the reality is is there they do they’ve got some appeals coming up here um the fox things are going to be big the fox thing is going to be big that goes over to nurn netburn has to hear on that that’s going to take some time next year is most likely when you’re going to see it over with that’s just the seriously procedurally dude they’re just they’re just stopping with everything man um amused ruple says uh thank you love to hang out with you yeah seriously this is so much fun doing the the chat hanging out um I like the chat is active on this channel as well I can’t stand when you do the live streams or when you see them and when they say like the the comments have been blocked you know like this one comments are turned off there’s no chat for the FED Liv stream but there’s a chat here there’s a chat here if you’re down to hang out with us down to share on the old chat uh Melvin is saying I can’t play darts oh man you’re going to have to learn how to play darts put a blindfold on spin you around a few times and throw it against the wall xrp Haven says the sooner the FED cut rates and I hope it last for four years or so the market can get stronger X behaven that is totally true one of the big things X behaven and thank you for bringing that up by the way one of the big things that’s missing from all of this not so much Bitcoin but your alt is investment from Venture capitalists Venture capitalists in crypto used to dump four to six billion a month into the crypto markets that now is less than one billion a month the reason they’re not putting much money in is because money is expensive so way to way to go on that xrp haven good good comment there because you are you are totally right all right totally right money becomes cheaper more development money can come in which can give a lot of these chains useful products useful Tech which could that bring in even more Trix says anyone watching World Snooker no not a snooker player I would not mind playing you know little traditional pool but not a snooker player uh Roy Wan says Hey Claus good evening I must say XP looks solid very weird yeah xrp holding itself very strongly right now in fact when we look at xrp let’s get to that right here xrp has only down 4.6% in the last seven days that is the best out of the top on that okay that is the best out of the top 20 Roy wogan says I play darts with the wife Nice Nice I you know you know youall know I love my dark humor you know I like my inappropriate humor I like that playing darts with the wife is a good one Claus you really think there’ll be election this year where there’s Obama and Clinton they’re not uh rallying yeah you’re you’re going to have an election I think you’re going to see I think you’re going to see Biden and Trump battle it out again and yeah I think that’s what you’re going to get I mean it yeah you know that’s not fun that’s not fun uh coconut monkey says hoping they can make a deal with no appeals for a few hundred million but we will see the the coconut monkey I’m glad you being that up and we’re talking about um Ripple and the SEC settlement ideas and so forth the the two billion and the the 10 million is so crazy far apart like if you’re the SEC and you’re asking for 2 billion remember the SEC just got uh CZ in binance right the the SEC has been stacking some big wins here so if the SEC is asking for two billion man I would think I would think at the minimum they would want a 1 billion penalty that that that would be like the the least or the lowest they would come down they’d be like look we’ll cut our penalty in half find you 1 billion that still proves a point that’s it you know would Ripple agree to paying one billion hell no that’s way too much money yanked out that is way too much man uh stepen chiver says XP definitely needs a major cheerleader like sailor Brad and his team needs some personality you know that’s a good point with the Sailor thing because you know what think of bitcoin’s Advocates right bitcoin’s biggest Advocates are your Sailors your Bitcoin miners your Al Salvador and so forth right and those those Advocates are the especially the ones that are just buying and hodling are really helping out their cause you don’t hear a big name doing that for xrp and that’s a that’s a really good point there Stephen is you don’t have that fxrp you don’t have that big cheerleader out there that can that can just keep talking about it and Blasting it out there it’s it’s a good point that is a good point um right now Market pretty divided you got some messiness here in the red you got some meme pullback but you got some of the alter make Some solid moves as well bucking the trend aptose optimism do xrp they’re all bucking the trend xem at 10.8 exem at 10.8 isn’t anything exciting I mean come on come on come on that’s not an exciting chart like this little bit of oscillation that’s not exciting not exciting at all coca monkey says I think if it goes the distance triple pay peanuts because they can’t prove damages and and that’s what I’m saying coconut monkey there like stuff like that there’s so many opportunities to appeal like if this does Go the Distance dude they could drag this out forever man and I that’s what I don’t want I I I get it I get it right like as a news channel Roger ver is in the dogh house yeah Roger ver is a weirdo but like I’m I’m I’m not trust me as a news channel what do I want views right that’s obvious now do I want the case to go on and on and on honestly no I just want it over like I know it’s a storyline I know it’s a plot line I know it’s something that’s always good for views people always want to know about I get that but I want it over it’s just it is it is a beatto death story it sucks I mean I it gets tiring man like it it really really does like I I got to be honest with you the the xrp court stuff just gets it just gets tiring because it has it’s been delayed delayed delay and it’s just it’s a it’s a punchline that’s over you know what I mean like it’s just gone on too too long right now so I it’s I get it I I I would I would like a settlement too I just think the two sides are too far apart you know what I mean like I really do I think it’s too far apart we’ve got the FED coming on live here in about five minutes when they do when they do come on I will switch it on over but in the meanwhile look at beautiful old DC in the background John slack says I have a short stack lined up to capitalize on the post settlement pump always got Stacks ready always have stacks ready you always got to have cash ready because if there’s ever an opportunity you got to be ready for it always always leave bullets in the gun always man always oh oh Von argal says oh so Claus you just want views so when you starting your only fans I you know if I were to do an only fans it would I don’t know it would probably like a really like not like sexual but like a really runchy like like really bad like Andrew Dice Clay sort of crypto presentation that would be my thing that would be my thing yeah I know right needs the sponsor right yeah you got to be a sponsor man I I I can’t I can’t just pimp myself out for nothing I need to be sponsored first and and to sponsor me would require a 2004 BMW M3 before they went too too heavy and when the engine was still legit that’s how that works that’s how that works uh Poncho Hernandez say xpx sum XC will pump once liquidity starts to flow in yeah liquidity will flow in once money becomes cheaper and once money becomes cheaper everything will just start getting better for everyone but that’s going to be a while you know what I mean that that’s going to be a while I mean I I you just you just it is it’s going to it’s going to take some time got a good one John says I converted my xlm to xrp I only want to hold one sideways chopping coin well done sir well done on that um Robert Melvin says I’d watch yeah seriously if I ever were to do like another broadcast I would it would be really really brunchy like I would it would have to be something where like I could say and do whatever I want like do you do you all know how much I edit my videos cuz some of the things I say are really bad like really really bad and I’m like oh okay I can’t put this like yeah so so if I ever were to do like a like a subscribe service I would I would have to do it on a platform that lets me say whatever I want and I wouldn’t have to worry about like snowflakes freaking out like I would it would it would have to be something where I feel very very protected so just throwing that out there um Martin OK Conor says how are BTC ETF so big in the USA they’re doing no volume in any other country they’re available you can buy that yourself they’re not going to do well in China yeah I I don’t think they’re going to do that well in China because I think China the action is in Native token I do I think I think in China they in Hong Kong they specifically and I’m gon to say Hong Kong in Hong Kong what I’m saying what they specifically want is they want native token obviously I mean I just I I the volume was Jack [ __ ] the volume sucked the garbage volume legit garbage volume out of the Hong Kong uh ETFs seriously it says clouse why don’t you want to be part of the xrp army um cuz dude I roll solo man like seriously I I do I roll solo I I do my own thing and I’m seriously happy just being myself right now I’m happy just presenting the news the way it is calling things out the way it is hold up Cho Che [ __ ] there you go waiting for it all day no I’m I’m I’m I’m honestly what I love about crypto is what it can do I love the idea of moving money cheaply I love the idea of being able to have an international currency I love the idea of the government not being able to tell me what to do with my money right I like the decentralized part of crypto now if the government keeps ruining the decentralized part then I’m going to be like this is not cool and and that’s my thing so my stance on crypto I really really like what it can do and I really think crypto is is a really good idea for us to have some control against the government you know I mean and that’s and John Slack’s got an even better one I’m in the whatever makes me money Army yeah for real man if I if I find some gold that’s like super juicy price-wise I’m going to get in on that uhoh look who it is uhoh someone’s getting ready hold on let me do this let me uh let me remove myself here give me a second go to Studio hold on hold on everyone I got to figure this out give me a second here I’m going to turn me off get you to Jerome oh here he is let’s go live to my man JP good afternoon my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to Pro promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people considerable progress toward our dual mandate objectives inflation has eased substantially over the past year while the labor market has remained strong and that’s very good news but inflation is still too high further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain certain we are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal restoring price stability is essential to achieve a sustainably strong labor market that benefits all today the fomc decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings though at a slower Pace our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation and the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year however in recent months inflation has shown a lack of further progress toward our 2% objective and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks I’ll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid Pace although GDP grow grow moderated from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year to 1.6% in the first quarter private domestic final purchases which excludes inventory investment government spending and net exports and usually sends a clearer signal on underlying demand was 3.1% in the first quarter as strong as the second half of 2023 consumer spending has been robust over the past several quarters even as high interest rates have weighed on housing and equipment equ investment improving Supply conditions have supported resilient demand and the strong performance of the U Eon US economy over the past year the labor market remains relatively tight but supply and demand conditions have come into better balance payroll job gains averaged 276,000 jobs per month in the first quarter while the unemployment rate remains low at 3.8% strong job creation over the past year has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a continued strong pace of immigration nominal wage growth has eased over the past year and the jobs to workers Gap has narrowed but labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above our longer run goal of 2% total pce Prices rose 2.7% over the 12 months ending in March excluding the volatile food and energy categories core pce prices Rose 2.8% the inflation data received so far this year have been higher than expected although some measures of short-term inflation expectations have increased in recent months longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households businesses and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets the fed’s monetary policy actions are Guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food housing and transportation we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 % objective the committee decided at today’s meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 and a qu to 5 and a half% and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings though at a slower Pace over the past year as labor market tightness has eased and inflation has declined the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance the economic Outlook is uncertain however and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks we’ve stated that we do not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% so far this year the data have not given us that greater confidence in particular and as I noted earlier readings on inflation have come in above expectations it is likely that gaining such greater confidence will take longer than previous VI ly expected we are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for as long as appropriate we’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market we know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we’ve seen on inflation at the same time reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate the committee will carefully assess incoming data the evolving Outlook and the balance of risks policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate we will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting turning to our balance sheet the committee decided at today’s meeting to slow the pace of decline in our Securities Holdings consistent with the plans we released previously specifically the cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from the current 60 billion per month to 25 billion per month as of June 1 consistent with the committee’s intention to hold primarily treasury Securities in the longer run we’re leaving the cap on agency Securities unchanged per month and we will re reinvest any proceeds in excess of this cap in treasury Securities with principal payments on agency Securities currently running at about1 15 billion dollar per month total portfolio runoff will amount to roughly $40 billion per month the decision to slow the pace of runoff does not mean that our balance sheet will ultimately shrink by less than it would otherwise but rather allows us to approach its ultimate level more gradually in particular slowing the pace of runoff will help ensure a smooth transition reducing the possibility that money markets experience stress and thereby facilitating the ongoing decline in our Securities Holdings consist that are consistent with reaching the appropriate level of ample reserves we remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run to conclude we understand that our actions affect communities families and businesses across the country everything we do is in service to our public mission we at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals thank you I look forward to your questions thank you Howard Schneider with Reuters um a question to follow if I could uh do you consider the current policy rate uh still uh you confident that it’s sufficiently restrictive to get inflation back to 2% so I do I do think the evidence shows you know pretty clearly that policy is restrictive and is Weighing on demand and um there are a few places I would point to for that you can start with the labor market um so demand is still strong the demand side of the labor market in particular but it’s cooled from its extremely high level of a couple years ago and you see that in in job openings you saw more evidence of that today in the joltz report as you’ll know uh it’s still higher than pre-pandemic but it has been coming down both in the indeed report and in the jolz report that’s that’s demand cooling uh the same is true of quits and hiring rates which have essentially normalized um I also look at the we look at surveys of workers and pardon me surveys of workers and businesses and ask workers are jobs plentiful and ask businesses are workers plentiful is it easy to find workers and you’ve seen that the answers to those have come back down to pre pre-pandemic levels you also see in in inter sensitive spending like housing and investment you also see that higher interest rates are weighing on those so I do think it’s clear that um that policy is restrictive sufficiently restrictive I guess is so I would say that we we believe it is restrictive and we believe over time it will be sufficiently restrictive that will be a question that that the data will have to answer so as a followup if inflation continues running roughly sideways as it has been uh the job market stays reasonably rest strong unemployment low and expectations are anchored and maintained would you you disrupt that for expectations are not anchored or anchored or anchored stable roughly would you disrupt that for the last half point on pce you know I don’t want to get into complicated hypotheticals but I would say that you know we’re committed to retain retaining our current uh restrictive stance of policy for as long as it’s appropriate and we’ll do that Gina thanks for taking our questions chair pal um I wonder you know obviously Michelle Bowman has been saying that there is a risk that rates may need to increase further although it’s not her Baseline Outlook I wonder if you see that as a risk as well and if so what change in conditions would Merit considering raising rates at this point so I think it’s unlikely uh that the next policy rate move will be a hike I’d say it’s unlikely um you know our policy focus is really what I just mentioned which is which is how long to keep policy restrictive you ask what would it take you know I think we’d need to see persuasive evidence that our policy stance is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time that’s not that’s not what we think we’re seeing as I as I mentioned but that that’s something like that is what it would take we look at the totality of the data answer to that question that would include inflation inflation expectations and all the other data too would that re acceleration in inflation well I think again the the test what I’m saying is if we were to come to that conclusion that policy weren’t tight enough to achieve that so it would be the totality of of all the things we’re be looking at it it could be expectations it could be a combination of things but if we if we reach that conclusion and we we don’t see evidence supporting that conclusion that’s what it would take I think for us to to take that step Chris uh thank you Chris rugaber and Associated Press uh you didn’t mention the idea that rates are at a peak uh for the cycle and didn’t mention the idea that it might be appropriate to cut rates later this year uh as you have at previous press conferences so has the FED sort of dropped its easing bias where are you standing on that so one um uh let let me address uh Cuts so obviously our decisions that we make on our policy rate are going to depend on the incoming data how the Outlook is evolving and the balance of risks as always and we’ll look at the totality the data so I think and we think that policy is well positioned to add address different paths that the economy might take um and we’ve said that we don’t think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy stance until we’ve gained greater confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward 2% so for example let me take a path uh if we did have a path where inflation proves more persistent than expected and where the labor market remains strong strong but inflation is moving sideways and we’re not gaining greater confidence well that would be a case in which it could be appropriate to hold off on rate Cuts I think there’s also other paths that the economy could take which which would cause us to want to consider rate cuts and those would be two two of those paths would be that we do gain greater confidence as we’ve said if that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2% and and another path could be you know an unexpected weakening in the labor market for example so those are paths in which in which you could see us uh uh cutting rate so I think there it really will depend on the data in terms of in terms of peak rate you know I I think um really it’s the same question I I uh I I think the data will will have to answer that question for us what and could you just follow uh on the path where you might not cut is that you mentioned that would be inflation persistent uh I mean is inflation would that be the key data in making that decision or could you expand a bit more on that thank you again it’s it’s um we’ve set ourselves a test that we for us to begin to reduce policy restriction we’d want to be confident that inflation is moving you know moving sustainably down to 2% and for sure one of the things we’d be looking at is the performance of inflation we’d also be looking at inflation expectations be looking at the whole story but clearly incoming uh incoming inflation data would be at the very heart of that of that decision Nick OS of the Wall Street Journal uh chair Powell to what extent has the easing in financial conditions since November contributed to the re acceleration in growth and do you now expect a period of sustained tighter Financial conditions will be needed to resume the sort of disinflation the economy saw last year so I I think it’s hard to know that I think we’ll we’ll be able to look back you know from down the road and look back and and understand it better you know if you if you look at um let’s look at growth really uh what we’ve seen so far this year in the first quarter is growth coming in about consistent with where it was last year I know GDP came in lower but you don’t see an acceleration in growth I mean the thought would be that Financial conditions loosened in in in December and that caused an uptick in activity and that caused inflation presumably that’s what or tightening in the labor market you you don’t really see that happening what you see is economic activity at a level that’s roughly the same as as last year so you know what what’s causing this inflation you know we’ll we’ll have a better sense of that over time I don’t know that there’s an obvious connection there though with the easing of financial conditions in terms of tightening you’re you’re right I mean rates are certainly higher now and have been for some time than they were before the December meeting and and uh they’re higher and that’s tighter Financial conditions and you know that’s appropriate given uh given what inflation has done in the first quarter you you’ve said in the past that stronger growth wouldn’t necessarily preclude rate Cuts I wonder would continued strength in the labor market change your view about the appropriate stance of policy if it was accompanied by signs that wage growth was reaccelerating so I just want to be careful that we don’t Target wage growth or the labor market and remember what we saw last year very strong growth a really tight labor market and a historically fast decline in inflation so we and and that’s because we know there are there are two forces at work here there’s the unwinding of the pandemic related supply side distortions and and and demand side distortions and there’s also monetary policy you know uh restrictive monetary policy so I I wouldn’t rule out that something like that can can’t continue you know I wouldn’t give up at this point on further things happening on the supply side either because you know we do see that uh that companies still report that that that there are supply side issues that they’re facing and also even when the supply side is issues are solved it should take some time for that to affect economic activity and ultimately inflation so there are still those things so I I don’t like to say that either strong either growth or or a strong labor market in and of itself would automatically uh create problems on inflation because of course it didn’t do that last year you ask about wages we we we we also don’t we don’t Target wages we we T Target price inflation it is one of the inputs the point with wages is of course we we like everyone else like to see high wages but we we also want to see them not eaten up by uh by high inflation and that’s really what we’re what we’re trying to do is to is to cool the economy and and work with what’s happening on the supply side to bring uh to bring the economy back to 2% inflation and part of that will probably be uh having wage increases move down incrementally toward levels that are more sustainable Rachel hi chair pal Rachel seagull from The Washington Post thanks for taking our questions you talked about needing time to gain more confidence that inflation is sustainably moving back down to 2% it’s may now do you have time this year to cut three times just given the calendar yeah I’m not really thinking of it that way um you know the what I what we’ve said is that we we need to be more confident and we’ve said my colleagues and I today said that uh U we didn’t see progress in the first uh uh in the first quarter and I’ve said that it it it appears then that uh it’s going to take longer for us to to reach that point of conference so I don’t know how long it’ll take I I you know I can just say uh that when we get that confidence then then rate Cuts will be will be in scope and I don’t know exactly when that will be and with hindsight are there any signs that you can look back on now looking at the reports from January or February or March that suggested something more worrying than just expected bumpiness I you know not really you know what what um so I I thought it was appropriate to reserve judgment until until we had the full quarters data until we saw the March data and so take a step back what do we now see in the first quarter we see strong uh economic activity we see a strong labor market and we see inflation we see three inflation readings and and you so I think you’re at a point there where you where you should take some signal I I we don’t like to react to one or two months data but this is a full quarter and I think it’s appropriate to take signal now and we are taking signal and the signal that we’re taking is that it’s likely to take longer for us to gain confidence that we are on a sustainable path down a 2% inflation that’s the signal that we’re taking out you know Steve Mr CH if I could Steve at leisman CNBC if I could follow on that um what particular areas were sort of temporary or blips in the inflation date in the first quarter and what’s the dynamic by which you expect them to work out in the coming uh months and quarters yeah so we we will um you know we will put the thing we have put the thing under a microscope I will say nothing is going to come out of that that’s going to change the view I think that in fact uh we didn’t gain confidence and that it’s going to take longer to get that confidence but confidence I I just think you I mean you know the story what what um what’s happened since December is you’ve seen uh higher Goods inflation than expected and you’ve seen higher non-housing Services inflation than expected and those two are working together to to sort of be higher than than we had thought and there are stories behind how that happened uh and you know we I think I think my expectation is that we will over the course of this year see inflation move back down that that’s my my forecast I I think my confidence in that is lower than it was uh because of the data that we’ve seen so you know we’re looking at those things we also continue to expect and I continue to expect that Housing Services inflation given where Market rents are those will show up in in uh in measured Housing Services inflation over time uh we believe that it will it just it looks like the LA that there are substantial lags between when uh you know lower Market rates turned up and and for new tenants and and when it shows up for existing tenants or or for in Housing Services so if I could just follow up is there a bit of a contradiction in the idea that you are reducing quantitative tightening which is sort of an easing while you’re holding rates steady at a restrictive rate to try to slow and cool the economy and inflation thank you I I wouldn’t say that no I mean the active tool of monetary policy is of course interest rates and uh this is this is a a long a plan we’ve long had in place place to to slow really not not in order to um uh you know to provide accommodation to the economy but to or to to be less restrictive to the economy it really is to ensure that the process of shrinking the balance sheet down to where we want to get it is a smooth one it doesn’t wind up uh in um with with financial Market turmoil the way it did the last the last time we did this and the only other time we’ve ever done this Cor Horus from Bloomberg uh two questions first simple one um given the Run of data since March has the probability in your mind of no Cuts this year increased or stayed the same that’s the first question second question chair pal you joined the board in 2012 and I’m sure you remember as I do what the jobless recovery was like um lawyers accountants all kinds of Highly qualified people who couldn’t get jobs and given your history there I wonder if there’s an argument for being more patient with inflation here um we have strong productivity growth that’s helping wages grow up go up we have good employment and so it seems to me there’s a lot of Hysteria about inflation I I agree it’s you know nobody likes it but but is there an argument for being patient and working with the economic cycle to get it down over time thank you so on your first question I don’t have a probability estimate for you but all I can say is that uh you know we’ve said we that we didn’t think it’d be appropriate to cut until we were more confident uh that inflation was moving sustainably at at 2% we didn’t get our confidence in that didn’t increase in the first quarter and in fact what really happened was uh uh we came to the view that it will take longer to get that confidence and I think there are it you know I think it’s U the economy has been very hard for forecasters broadly to predict to predict its path but there are paths to to not cutting and there are paths to cutting it’s really going to depend on the data in terms of the the um employment mandate to your point um if you go back a couple of years uh our our our sort of framework document says that when uh you look at the two mandate goals and if one of them’s further away from from goal than the other then you focus on that one it actually it’s it’s the time to get back there times the uh you know times how far it is from the goal and that was clearly inflation so our Focus was very much on inflation as as and this is what we referred to in the in the statement as um we as inflation has come down now to below 3% on a on a on a 12-month basis um it’s become it it we be we’re now focusing the the other goal that the employment goal now comes back in for to focus and so we are focusing on it um and and that’s that’s how we think about that CLA CLA Jones Financial Times thanks a lot for the opportunity to ask the questions just to go back to the answer before um the previous one um it seemed to suggest that you think the likeliest path of inflation is one that’s going to allow you to have a situation where rates are lower at the end of the year than they are right now it’ be good if you could just confirm whether or not that’s a correct reading um and the qy1 GDP R print has um led to some some to start mentioning the term stagflation with respect to the US economy do you or anyone else on the fomc think this is now a risk thank you yeah I I’m I’m not um deal really in likelihoods I think there are there are paths that the economy can take that would that would involve cuts and there paths that wouldn’t and I I don’t have great confidence in which of those paths I think my I would say my personal forecast is that we will begin to see further progress on inflation this year I don’t know that it will be enough sufficient I don’t know that it won’t I think we’re we’re going to have to let the data uh lead us on that in terms of your question the second question was stagflation I um I guess I would say I I was around for stagflation and it was um you know 10% uh 10% unemployment it was high single digits inflation right now we have and and and and uh very slow growth so um right now we have 3% growth which is you know pretty solid growth I would say by any measure and we have inflation running under 3% so uh I don’t I don’t really understand where that’s coming from and and uh uh in addition I would say you know most forecasters including our our forecasting was that uh that last year’s level of growth was very high 3.4% in I guess the fourth quarter you know and probably not going to be sustained and would come down but that would be that would be our forecast that wouldn’t be stagflation that would still be to a very healthy level of growth and of course with inflation you know our we will return inflation to 2% and that won’t be so I don’t see the Stag or the flation actually Michael mcke from Bloomberg radio and television the vice chair of the fomc said recently that he’s willing to consider the idea that potential growth has moved up and of course he’s Mr potential growth our star do you share that view and would that imply that maybe policy isn’t tight enough i s so I think I would take that question this way um we saw a year of very high productivity growth in 2023 and we saw a year of I think negative productivity growth in 2022 so I think it’s hard to draw from the data uh I mean the question is will productivity run there are two questions one is Will productivity run you know persistently above its longer run Trend I don’t think we know that in terms of potential output though if that’s a separate question we we’ve had a what amounts to a uh uh a significant increase in the potential output of the economy that’s not about productivity it was about having more labor frankly both through in in 2023 both through participation Al through immigration so we’re very much like other forecasters and economists getting our arms around what that means for potential output this year and next year and and last year for that matter too so I think in that case I think you really do have a significant increase in potential output but you’ve also got you so you got more Supply but those people also come in and they they are they work they have jobs they spend so you’ve also got demand so it it may there may be it may be that you get more Supply than you get demand at the beginning but ultimately it should be neither inflationary nor disinflationary over over a longer period Well you uh said earlier that um at this point you’re not really considering rate increases if uh growth is higher but you’re not considering rate increases does that imply that you’re more worried about causing the economy to slow too much than you are about inflation taking off again no I I think we we we believe our our policy stance is in a good place and and is appropriate to the current situation uh we believe it’s restrictive and you know we our evidence for that I went over earlier you you see it in the labor market you see an inflation sensitive spending where demand is clearly come down a lot over the past few years and that’s that’s more from monetary policy whereas the supply side things that are happening are more on the supply side so um that that’s how I would think about it thank you Mr chairman Edward Lawrence uh from Fox Business so GDP growth is about 2% inflation employment is about 4% it feels a lot like a steady state and we have 3% inflation so if the data Remains the Same that you’re seeing um and I know you said you don’t see a rate hike but it stands to reason that you would need a rate hike to get from 3 to 2% inflation so was there any discussion about a rate hike in today’s meeting uh and you know are you satisfied with 3% inflation for the rest of the year Well I of course we’re not satisfied with 3% inflation um 3% can’t be in a sentence with satisfied um so we will return inflation to 2% over time but but over time and we think our policy stance is is appropriate to do that so if we were to conclude that policy is not sufficiently restriced to bring uh inflation sustainably down 2% then that’s that would be what it would take for us to want to increase rates we don’t see that we don’t see evidence for that uh so that’s where we are the discussion was there a discussion about a rate hike at all so the the policy Focus has been on has really been on what to do about about um uh holding the current uh the current level of restriction that that’s really that’s part of the policy that’s where the policy discussion was in the meeting I wanted to follow on the 3% is there a time frame of persistent inflation that would trigger a rate hike there there isn’t any rule you can’t look to a rule you know these are these are going to be judgment calls uh I you know clearly restrictive monetary policy needs more time to do its job that that that is pretty clear based on what what we’re seeing how long that will take and how patient we should be it’s going to depend on the totality of the data how the Outlook evolves Victoria hi Victoria Guido with Politico um you’ve talked about your commitment to being a political and nonpartisan and I was just wondering given that it’s an election year is the bar for rate changes higher uh close to an election and uh similarly is there a significant economic difference between you know starting to cut in SE say September nember versus December so we’re we’re always going to do what we think the right thing for the economy is when we come to that consensus view that it’s the right thing to do for the economy that’s our record that’s what we do we’re not looking at anything else you know it’s it’s hard enough to get the economics right here these are difficult things and if we’re if if we were to take on a whole another set of factors and and use that as a new filter it would reduce the likelihood we’d actually get the economics right so that’s how we think about it around here and you know we’re at peace over it we we know that we’ll do what we think is the right thing when we think it’s the right thing and we’ll all do that and that that’s that’s how everybody around here thinks so I I I can’t say it enough that we just don’t we just don’t go down that road if you go down that road where do you stop and and we’re so we’re not on that road we’re on the road where we’re serving all the American people and making our decisions based on the data and how those data affect the Outlook and the balance of risks and then is there a significant difference between uh you know whether you start in say September versus December there’s a significant difference between an institution that takes into account all sorts of political events and one that doesn’t that’s where the significant difference is and and you know we’re we just don’t do that I mean you can you can go back and read the transcripts for every this is my 14 fourth election fourth presidential election here read all the transcripts and see if anybody mentions in any way the pending election it just isn’t part of our thinking it’s not what we’re hired to do if we start down that road I again I don’t know I don’t know how you stop so Simon uh thank you chair Powell question about the labor market you’ve mentioned a few times that the labor market is normalizing certainly today’s jolt data suggested that things are kind of getting back to pre-pandemic levels one thing that hasn’t normalized is wage growth which is still quite a bit stronger than before the pandemic I wonder if you can share your analysis of of why that’s happening is it a lagging indicator or something else going on so I think if you if you go back to where wagees peaked wage increas is peaked a couple three years ago essentially all wage measures have come down substantially to that but they are not not down to where they were before the pandemic they’re still roughly a percentage Point higher and we’ve seen pretty consistent progress but not uniformly and you’ll note the the ECI reading from Tuesday was it was expected to be to have come down and essentially it was flat year-over-year uh you know I think roughly so yeah I mean it’s that part of it is Bumpy and uh again we don’t Target wage increases but but it you know in in the longer run if you have INF if you have um wage increases running higher than productivity would warrant and uh then you know there it there will be inflationary pressure pressures uh employers will raise prices over time if that’s the case so we’ve seen progress it it has been in you know in consistent but we have seen a substantial decline overall but we have ways to go on that scottc hey from Market um you mentioned uh consumers and consumers are feeling the weight of interest rates right now mortgage rates are up as our rates for car loans credit cards people looking to borrow are very discouraged that’s reflected in their views on the economy what would you say to them well um the thing that hurts everybody and particularly um people in the lower income brackets is inflation if you’re a person who’s living paycheck to paycheck and suddenly all the things you buy the the fundamentals of Life go up in price you you are in trouble right away and so with those people in mind in particular what we’re doing is we’re using our tools to bring down inflation it will take some time but we will succeed and we will bring inflation back down to 2% and then people won’t have to worry about it again that’s what we’re doing and we know that it’s painful and inconvenient but the dividends will be paid in the in the will be very large and and everyone will share in those dividends and we’ve made quite a lot of progress if you if you can think about it I think core I think headline core PC peaked at at 5.8 now it’s at anyway headline peaked at 7.1 now it’s at 2.7 don’t want to get that wrong no you don’t uh quick followup are current interest rates really doing that much though to fight inflation right now for those consumers yes I mean I I think I think that restrictive monetary policy is doing what it’s supposed to do and it’s but it’s also this case unusually working alongside and with the healing of the supply side this this that was different this time was that a big part of the of the source of the inflation and the reason why we’re having this conversation is that we had this supply side kind of collapse with with shortages and and bottlenecks and all that kind of thing and and so and this was to do with the shutting down and reopening of the economy and other things that that um that really raised demand so many factors did that so I think now you see those two things working together the reversal of those supply and demand distortions from from the pandemic and the response to it along with with restrictive monetary policy those two things are working to bring down inflation and we’ve made a lot of progress let’s remember how far we’ve come we and we have a ways to go we’ve got work left to do but we’re not looking at the very high inflation rates that we were seeing two years ago uh Courtney Brown from maxios uh thanks for taking our questions chair Powell um I wanted to follow up on something you mentioned earlier on um housing inflation there’s kind of been this long awaited disinflation and shelter that still hasn’t arrived so I guess two questions how do you explain the substantial lags between some of the private sector data we’re seeing and um the government data and how confident are you that rents will be helpful on the inflation front in the coming months so essentially the there are there are a number of places in the economy where there’s a where there just lag structures built into the inflation process and housing is one of them so when you have um when you when when someone um goes to a new person goes to rent an apartment that’s called Market rent and you can see Market rents are barely going up at all they the inflation in those has been very low um but it takes before that they were incredibly high they of led the the the high part so what happens is the those Market rents Take Years actually to get all the way into um rents for uh turn tenants who are rolling over their leases landlords don’t tend to charge as much of an increase to a rollover tenant for whatever reason and what that does is it builds up a sort of an unrealized portion of increases when there have been big increases and what happens is you know it’s it’s complicated but the story is it just takes some time for that to get in now I’m I am confident that as long as Market rents remain low this is going to show up in measured inflation assuming that that market rents do remain low how what will be the exact timing of it I think it I think we’ve learned that the lags are longer we now think significantly longer than we thought at the beginning um and so confident that it will come but not so confident in the timing of it but yes I expected that uh that this will happen thanks Nick jinsky thank you chair pal for taking the questions this is Nicholas jinsky from Baron’s magazine um it seems that over the past three or four years economies and central banks in developed markets leas have been on more or less the same trajectory easing during the pandemic fighting inflation with restrictive policy on the way out um feels like that may be ending in 2024 based on some of the economic data from Europe and the US and Japan and statements from those central banks as well so my question is what what considerations or risks does a period of more Divergent global economic trajectories and Central Bank policies present for the fomc so um that you’re right I think that that may happen and I you know you know that we all serve domestic mandates right so I think the difference between the United States and and other countries that are now considering uh rate Cuts is that they’re just not having the kind of growth we’re having uh they they have their inflation is performing about like ours or maybe a little better but they’re not experiencing the kind of growth we’re experiencing so we actually have the luxury of having strong growth in a strong labor market very low unemployment High job creation and all of that and we can be patient and we and we will will be careful and cautious as we approach the decision to cut rates whereas I think other other jurisdictions may go before that in terms of the implications I you know I think um obviously markets see it coming it’s priced in now and so I I think the econom markets and economies can adapt to it uh and I think you know we haven’t seen in addition for the emerging market economies we haven’t seen the kind of turmoil that was more frequent 20 years ago 30 years ago and that’s I think partly because Emerging Market countries many of them have much better monetary policy Frameworks much more credibility on inflation and so they’re navigating this pretty well this time Jennifer thank you chair pal Jennifer sha bger with Yahoo finance you sort of backed away from the notion that the economy would need to encounter pain for inflation to come back down but given sticky inflation data in the first quarter can disinflation still happen along relatively painless path for the economy or is some softening in the labor market and the economy likely needed to bring inflation back down so you’re right we I think we thought and and most people thought there would have to be U probably a significant um dislocations somewhere in the economy perhaps the labor market to get inflation all the way down from the very high levels it was at at the beginning of this episode that didn’t happen that’s a tremendous result we’re very of course gratified and pleased that hasn’t happened and if you look at the Dynamics that enabled that it really was this the that that so much of the gain was from the unwinding of of things that weren’t to do with monetary policy with the unwinding of the distortions to the economy you know Supply problems supply side problems and also some some demand issues as well the unwinding of those really helped inflation come down now as I’ve said I I’m not giving up on that so I think I think it is possible that that that those forces will still work to help us bring inflation down we can’t we can’t be guaranteed that that’s true though and so you know we’re we’re trying to use our Tools in a way that keeps the the labor market strong and the economy strong but also helps bring inflation back down to 2% sustainably we will bring inflation down to 2% sustainably we hope we can do it without um you know without U uh significant dislocations in the labor market or elsewhere and speaking of dislocations in the labor market um in terms of cutting you said if there were weakness in the job market that could be a reason to cut rates so if the unemployment rate were to take above 4% but inflation not back down to your 2% Target how would you look at that would the unemployment rate popping back above 4% catch your attention you know I I said an unexpected weakening is what I what the way I characterize it so you know and I’m not going to try to Define exactly what I mean by that but you know it would be it had to be meaningful and get our attention and and lead us to think that the labor market was really significantly weakening for us to want to react to it you know a couple of tents in the unemployment rate would be would would probably not do that but a broader would be a broader thing that would that would suggest that uh that it would be appropriate to consider uh cutting and I I think whether you decide to cut will depend on all the facts and circumstances not just that one chair Paul thanks for taking the question Kyle Campbell with American Banker uh you’ve said that Broad and material changes are needed for the bosel 3 endgame proposal and you’ve mentioned that a repr proposal is something that’s on the table as you’ve had more time to sort of sit with the public commentary process that and understand the options available to you if you have a better sense of whether a repr proposal will be necessary um and you have a timeline in mind for when um you know some sort of movement will be made on that front either a repr proposal or a move to finalize so let me let me start by saying that the FED is committed to you know completing this process and and carrying out bosel 3 endgame in a way that’s faithful to bosel and also comp comparable to what the other other large comparable jurisdictions are doing um we haven’t made any decisions on on policy or on on process at all nothing nothing no decisions have been made I’ll say again though if we conclude that that repr proposal is appropriate we won’t hesitate to insist on that and then do you need to resolve issues with the capital proposal in order to advance other parts of the regulatory agenda or do you expect to continue to make progress on those other uh agenda items you know there’s no mechanical rule in place there but I would say that the you know the basil 3 it process is by far the most important thing and really is I think occupying us at this at this time in terms of what’s what’s what we’re moving ahead with let go to mark for the last question thank you Mark Hamrick with Bankrate uh Mr chairman uh what can you tell us about your the approach that you take uh with your role in the sense of trying to achieve consensus what you recently identified as a priority uh while allowing for a range of views or even dissent uh we don’t see many descending votes in the official statements even when more spirited discussions are noted in the minutes after the fact how do you avoid group think uh and avoid a higher risk of a policy mistake thank you so I I think if you listen to and you all do listen to my uh my 18 colleagues on the on the fomc you’ll see that we do not lack for a diversity of voices and perspectives we really don’t and it’s one of the great aspects of the Federal Reserve System we have 12 reserve banks around the country where they have their own economic staff not the people who work here at the board they’re different people and you know and and so each each Reserve Bank has its own culture around monetary policy and its own approach and that kind of thing it guarantees you a diversity of perspectives so I I think the perspectives are very diverse but uh and in terms of in terms of descents you know I I we have descents and and you know a thoughtful descent uh is is a good thing you know if someone really makes you think that kind of thing but um all I can say from my standpoint is I try I listen carefully to people I try to incorporate their thinking or do everything I can to incorporate their thinking into what we’re doing and I think many people if they they feel that’s happening you know that for most people most of the time that’ll be enough and but I’m I’m not um I mean it’s it’s not you know frowned upon or illegal or against the rules or anything like that it just is the way things come out and uh I mean I think we have a very diverse group of BR of people frankly more diverse than it used to be in many dimensions more diverse but from the obvious you know gender and demographic ways but also we have we have um more people who are not PhD economists so we have people from business and and law and Academia things like that uh so I think you actually do have quite quite a good diverse perspective the I think all of us read these stories about a lack of diversity and we look around the room and say I don’t I really don’t understand what they’re talking about so but I get the question though thank you very much well there you have it Jerome poell has said what he has to say and what he said is no rate Cuts in sight now the crypto Market is fairing fairly well look at soul is up dot is up xrp bucking the trend at 4 and a qu% there on the rise so we are seeing some moves to the other direction but the long and short of it is is that the rate Cuts won’t be anytime soon now there will be a narrative out there to say yes Cuts Cuts Cuts boom boom boom Moon Moon Moon choo choo [ __ ] but that’s not the case the case is that Jerome Powell is going to have to walk that fine line and not give indications one way or another coconut monkey chimes in and says pause forever essentially that’s how he’s going to have to play this right now the fear is that if inflation stays above three for a while at current rates he’s going to be forced then to raise them and what what kind of a mess would that make for the economy so here we are done with Jerome Powell on the mic and I’m getting the blessing to be on the mic and what we’re all thinking is the same thing prepare by having cash on the side because buying Ops are going to come in times to make money are going to be here don’t be married to any position no nor should fomo ever be in your thought process there’s going to be some times to make some green you just got to be openminded and see what the market is showing you so it’s what we got we’ve been talking Jerome we’ve been talking AI we’ve been talking a lot of stuff I mean you know honestly I think this is one of the better meetings I think we can honestly say that you know we knew he was going to pause we knew what he was going to say I I this this was very expected he had a good point where he said you know what might not have a rate cut before the election you might not have one for Christmas either that’s very important very very important I I think that a lot of us have to be uh understanding that this process is going to take a while with inflation you’re going to have high prices for a while you’re going to have growth stifled for a bit he even said that rents and rates affecting rents and housing that Cycle takes years years so now we’re just going to have to sit tight just take what the market gives us and what the market gives us is time yes time I always talk on this channel is something now time is some you never get back it always just goes away and you got to grasp as much of it as you can well we now know how much time we have in this market because guess what if they’re going to be pausing for a while you got time either to load your bags or to play the dips and tips as long as you stay within the lines you’ll be all right but just make sure to he keep the cash on the sideline because if you don’t have cash you can’t play and if you can’t play you can’t win all right everyone what we are going to do is we are going to end the stream at 3 26 uh stream ends so just a couple minutes here I do have a few things that I need to do I still need to train I still need to figure out what race I’m going to sign up for hold let me show yall something really quick here so there is a race I was looking at give me one second here there was a race I was looking at and like I almost [ __ ] myself yeah look at this one the 100K race for $265 are you kidding me there better be one heck of a handy at the end of that that race like a happy ending or something like that because oh my gosh 265 for 100k race no way no freaking way alcoholic click says years we need to have a Christmas every day it would be nice to make it rain every day but here’s the thing you can make it rain you just got to look for those opportunities to go in hit it take your profits and get up on out I I I think just there’s going to be too much of a narrative for Moon Moon Moon and with rates being expensive that ain’t going to happen trick says he’s off to watch snooker and sample some lemon cabbage no cabbage for me at the moment sadly I have to go running I have to do my heat adapt heat adaptation training oh God sucks Poncho Hernandez is saying peace I’m out peace to you Poncho arcast CEO predicted 30 to 50 trillion tokenized on xrp but if it doesn’t help the price 30 to 50 trillion doesn’t mean much and that’s the thing you got to find the opportunities to make the money harar has been pumping here for the last few weeks good to see that as well the stream here is going to be ending very shortly I wanted to thank everyone for watching thank you everyone for seriously being so active in the chats this was a lot of fun Jerome was a little bit more boring but the chat kept me going chat kept me going because this was a lot more fun make sure you say goodbye to each other in the chat because remember we’re all a big group here hanging out learning from each other and having some fun I am going to get changed I’m going to get changed and I’m going to go do some running in the nasty nasty heat so I’m going to play you some tunes I will catch you cool cats later [Music] rain rain ofly Bab you me [Music] [Music] my oh oh oh oh [Music]
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🚨ARTICLE LINKS🚨
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
https://www.youtube.com/@federalreserve
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2024/rent-of-primary-residence-in-miami-area-rose-10-1-percent-over-the-year-ended-december-2023.htm
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6 Comments
I'm hoping the homie romie raises rates😂 I buy when there's blood in the streets!
Banger of a chat for those who missed out. Looking forward to the next one and thanks Klaus and everyone who joined in to… help make learning fun!
Money is created by a stroke of a pen. Debt is an illusion. No one has to pay. It’s a lie Klaus.
Not one mention of the government giving away billions. What kind of journalist are these people, spineless. Thanks klause ☮️💜🌞🎶🎶 XRP the standard
I eated too much Indian food last night , I was in no shape for live chat unfortunately.
klaus you’re DOPE!!! 😡😡🫵🏾🫵🏾🫵🏾🫵🏾