Bitcoin [BTC]: Shift In Momentum Signals LOWER PRICES In Crypto (But it’s not all bad news)

Bitcoin [BTC]: Shift In Momentum Signals LOWER PRICES In Crypto (But it’s not all bad news)

[Music] signs of a v-shaped recovery are beginning to surface which means new all-time high prices may be just around the corner but with volume declining in the recent rally just like we saw in the last two attempts crypto is going to need another burst of energy sooner rather than later in the big picture the macro it continues to look extremely bullish with the potential of a reversal playing out right now so in this video here we will be reviewing the short shortterm the intermediate term and of course the macro while also diving into the traditional markets and some other important macro data I cover for you on the channel but before we dive into all of that please remember that I’m not a financial advisor so always do your own due diligence and research and past results and not indicative of future performance all right before we take a look at some of the data both in the traditional markets and of course Bitcoin and crypto we’ll take a look at some important announcements and data for the week now as I usually do at the start of the week I’ll go over to forexfactory.com calendar and I recommend you should as well you can set this up to whatever time zone you are in and whatever country you’re in of course and we’re looking at the high impact announcements now previously I’ve only been showing you guys the high impact announcements out of the US but I have added a few more countries into the mix this week here we have a couple of big announcements to do with interest rates which we know all of the world is always hanging on to what that interest rate is going to do to give them a lead into what inflation’s doing what the econom is doing and all that kind of thing but for us on the channel we always come back to the charts because we know that the price moves first and then the news is always playing catchup to try and justify what the price is actually doing but in terms of dates and times this stuff is really really important because you can see an influx in volatility and you can often see extreme turning points on these dates and times or very close to them so anyway for this week we have Australia and the UK with their interest rate announcements and there’s not too much out of the US other than the unemployment claims which can definitely shake the market up a little bit especially if these numbers come back a long way from what they’ll forecast from but remember I really don’t care about those numbers it’s about looking at those dates and times and we’ll typically get a bit of volatility around them and you will see more volatility around them if the numbers come back at some number that just wasn’t anticipated so that’s the way I use this data here now that’s it for the fundamental announcements next up we have this here where we’re looking at liquidations volume and all the rest of it now 24-hour volume is down by about 8% that’s no surprise we’re just coming off the back of a weekend liquidations has been really really low and relatively balanced around 40 million both for Longs and shorts both getting liquidated which is extremely common when the market is stuck within a range both people are trying to go in too heavy waiting for this breakout and by both people I mean Longs and short shorts and you can see when the Market’s within a range they both get equally wrecked but essentially here we don’t have huge amounts of volume so that’s pretty normal for what we’re looking at there apologies I just realized my screen probably wasn’t showing all that information but I was looking at that 24hour liquidations down in that corner there but from there we can take a look at the daily exchange volume which I’ve been anticipating would fall off a cliff and which is exactly what we need to see to print macro higher lows in the market typically most people exit the space when the price has been falling even though it was much better prices than a couple of weeks or a month or so ago and we’ll see that transl ated into the exchange volume where there’s just less activity taking place so that’s this chart here you can see we’re down around 60% from the peak of the market volume is really really drying up which again is exactly what I want to be seeing but it could still take some time before we start to see an uptick in volume and new people enter the space but it is good to see this playing out right now we’re starting to level out somewhat at around $40 billion on our 7-Day moving average here for the exchange volume so we’ll see if this continues to go quiet which is what I want to be seeing moving forward at least for the next couple of weeks or so in terms of Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows you can see a huge amount of outflows on the 1st of May which perfectly lines up with the bottom in the market so far people like to sell low and then buy high and after the market had moved back up there’s a large amount of inflows on Friday session so it is good to see a little bit more activity taking place here but I suspect this may still dwindle out somewhat before we start to see some more extreme levels of prices and some more sustainable Trends as well but we’ll let the data do the talking and at least so far there’s been a good uptick in ETF interest over the last week so I’ll continue to track this one really close as well to see what the masses are doing and where their attention is and how this lines up almost perfectly with fear and greed before we jump into the crypto charts where Bitcoin looking like it’s going to have a really strong close to the week we’ll take a quick look at the US dollar which is one of the most important factors in the market right now for basically all of our economies around the world at least in my opinion so far it’s been giving us a really good lead on the market and what we’ve been looking out for here on the US dollar is for a break back beneath our trend line and back beneath our old tops once we can see some closes and lower highs beneath this level here at around 105 on our US dollar Index i’ be getting very confident that we’ve seen an intermediate top and perhaps a major top in the big picture view or at least my big picture view of the US dollar is that we’re in a massive distribution phase and we will be heading lower on our macro charts now I’ve zoomed right out so you can see what I’m talking about that’s the peak in uh September of 2022 we have dropped down considerably and we’re stuck within a big picture range and what I’ve been fishing for over the last probably 18 months now is a macro lower high on this chart here which appears to have taken place all the way back in October of last year but we’re just yet to get that true breakdown in the market now it doesn’t mean it has to happen it is just something I’m looking out for and so far everything is still lining up for this to be some big picture distribution and for a breakdown to take place but we will let the price action do the talking and we have been trending higher on our lower term time frames I’m just looking out for some earlier leads that we are going to be breaking down and putting in another leg lower but again you have to respect that resistance and respect that support and for as long as the market is within those ranges you have to expect more sideways Market action and for Trends not to be too longlasting in either direction which is what we’ve seen over the last 18 months so far as this range did really get established now one of the main reasons I’d like to see this chart break down is because it would also line up with another leg up in cryptocurrencies and also for a strong stock market as well because when this chart heads low up broadly speaking we see higher prices in assets priced in US Dollars and also stock markets and all of that kind of thing just to keep the cycle ticking along to plan so we’ve seen a really good breakdown in the recent week or at least at the end of last week what we’re looking out for now is for some further signs of confirmation that we’re going to be breaking down on some higher term time frames of course it’s still very early days we still have broader higher lows and the potential of another higher low forming in the market and we only really had two clean down days at the end of last week so I’m not getting too far ahead of myself but it will be interesting to see how this one plays out over this week especially with those other interest rate announcements coming out of Australia and also the UK and just for a quick look at the stock market which I typically don’t talk about too much but it’s really really important I do track it really closely you can see as the US dollar was falling at the end of last week this is the daily chart here the stock market did also bounce as well along with cryptocurrency so you can really start to see that inverse relationship this chart goes down other assets go up broadly speaking all right before getting to the macro view of crypto I’ll start out on the lower term time frames and actually I had a comment saying that I’m doing it the wrong way around I need to start macro and then zoom into the lower term time frames I like to take a look at that granular look first to see what those Trends are doing and for them to translate onto those higher term time frames but you let me know in the comments section if you would prefer to see the macro first and then the lower term charts but at least for now I’m going to continue to stick it out with the hourly chart and then step it up to the higher term time frame so you can obviously see a nice reversal in the trend since getting that capitulation bar last week if you do recall I said take a look at that big volume that big down bar an extreme level but I wasn’t yet convinced we were going to be bouncing hard away from that point until we started to get back on top of some of those pivot Points with 60 Grand being the most important Pivot Point overhead now hindsight has perfect 2020 vision and you can now see that this was the signal and we got that confirmation by the way of breaking back on top of that pivot point and after those high lows did form so it’s really no point getting biased about one side of the market or the other you need to have some kind of way to go with the trend once you get those confirmation signals and as you can see as soon as we got back on top of that pivot point it kind of ground its way up to that zone we started to break a bunch of Swing tops then we had some nice very clean Trends from that point getting back on top of that 60k working up to those next Pivot Point levels now these yellow lines here are my Pivot Point levels which I’ve shared with you guys for the last couple of months they remain unchanged I’ve just added a few beneath the market as we have obviously trended lower before breaking back on top and as you can see they’re still continuing to play ball almost perfectly I’m always expecting selling press PR to pick up when they approach from the underside and then buying pressure to pick up when they approached from the overside now it doesn’t happen all the time but it happens often enough and I really hope I’ve shown you guys how support and resistance does typically work so you can see when we hit that 63k from the underside we had some temporary selling pressure it wasn’t a very clean hit but as soon as we got to that next Pivot Point at 64,500 buckss it played out almost perfectly we had selling pressure pick up we dropped down to the next level buying pressure picked up and here we are with now price stuck between these levels here so if and when we can get back on top of 645 I’m looking up to that next pivot point which comes in around $66,500 of course resistance can get hit between these levels but these are just the main levels I have been tracking really closely and they continue to work out pretty well at least so far so we’ll continue to track them on the channel so 66,500 bucks is that next resistance overhead if we do happen to see some general weakness across the board and we start to retest some lower levels breaking back beneath $63,000 is the trigger I’m looking out for and if we see some closes and lower highs I’m anticipating a sell off back down to retest that $60,000 range at least and then we can take it as it comes and see see what happens from there to see if any volume comes back into the market and if we do see some buying pressure pick back up just like we saw the last times the market sold off we see a big influx in volume and that abnormal extreme move take place if we do see something like that down into 60k then there’s every chance we’re printing another higher low getting ready to go up but of course we have to cross these Bridges one at a time there’s no point getting too far ahead of ourselves so that’s it for the hourly analysis there we can step up to the 4our Chart you can see that we don’t have any definitive trend on our 4H Hour 1 bar two bar or our daily time frames which suggests to me we’re still going to be seeing some chopping Market action until we can start to see some clear Trends and of course some Confluence across multiple time frames so while we have been trending up over the last couple of days it is still unclear as to whether this is just a little bit of a suckers rally until we start to see some Trends turn up but of course price action is King we’re back above 64,000 bucks at least for now so while I am looking out for some definitive Trends to take place the market is obviously trending higher we’re obviously breaking pivot Points so of course time will tell if when the correction comes if we print another higher low or we test lower prices it is always a moving Target but for our 4-Hour analysis there we are back on top of our trend line we’re back on top of our short-term 50% level so it’s a very positive place to be as we’re now strong on a number of indicators with that next resistance overhead based on our 50% levels at around $65,000 for round numbers up now to our daily chart where you can see we are still down on our 1day two bar and our weekly time frames we don’t yet have any Confluence on our daily Trend so it will take a little bit of time for this to form if in fact we will be turning up on our daily time frame we have that resistance overhead at around $65,000 as well on the daily chart coming from the all-time high down to the correction low so this is an extremely important Pivot Point both for our daily and weekly analysis typically like my pivot Points I expect selling pressure to come into the market when we approach these levels from the underside so this is a very clear resistance area you can also see some resistance coming from March and also April as well so it’s only going to be when we can get back on top of the zone and start to hold we want to see some daily closes and high lows above around 65 Grand that I’d really be getting excited about new all-time high prices being just around the corner and as you and as I pointed out in the introduction we are seeing low of volume in this rally which is always a bit of a warning sign but it doesn’t mean the market can’t overcome it and just to show you what I mean to do with low levels of volume on the rally we saw that exact same thing play out in this rally here I pointed out to you guys at the time that it was a bit of a warning sign you can see the market tried to move up the volume was low just suggesting there weren’t a lot of strong buyers around when the market tries to go up on low volume it’s a warning sign or at least it’s a warning sign for me and it just means the price can get smack back down really easily when you do see that low volume that’s what I’m looking out for now on this recent pump it’s doesn’t mean the market can’t overcome it again like I said previously but in terms of a really strong Market I’d like to see price action on top of 65 Grand and start to hold from that point forward I’ll be getting really excited about the prospect of breaking back into new all-time highs now that is one of the main negatives I do see for this rally so far being that declining volume but of course price action can overcome that really easily and we can technically get back on top of another strong indicator over the next day or so so we’ll continue to track this one closely as well now beneath the market of course 60 Grand remains one of the most important levels so if we do see a correction anything down to that zone is still really bullish provided volume comes back into the market at that price so we will cross that bridge if and when the time comes but at least for now those short-term Trends are still up so we’ll see what the next 24 to 48 hours holds now I’ve kept it no secret I’ve been fishing for a macro correction to take place and that was all the way back from the end of March that I started talking about this so here we are with the correction currently in progress and we do have signs that we are printing a macro higher low and the market structure is continuing to play ball nicely meaning we’re getting ready for this Fifth and final leg but we don’t yet have that market structure on the lower term time frames to give us confidence that we have finished this decline in the market and we’ve actually printed that macro high low so in terms of the bull market market structure everything Still Remains on track at least for me that we are just in a corrective pattern getting ready for this macro fifth leg up in the bull market but it will take a little bit of time to confirm this is the end of a wave four or at least by this wave count that I have been tracking really closely and it’s still working out to a te but in terms of our weekly chart and our weekly analysis you can see that we’re still down on our onewe one bar Trend we’ve remained up on our one we two bar and our monthly Trend through this entire period which again is a really bullish thing to be taking note of our Trends have remained up on those macro time frames but it’s going to take a little bit of work and of course some high prices to get us to break this weekly downtrend which will give me some confidence that we have printed this higher low and we’re ready to put in new all-time highs now like I covered previously on the daily chart one of the most important pivot Points overhead is around that $65,000 for our weekly analysis I’d like to see some price action above 69k which of course is getting really close to the previous all-time high so it can be a little bit of a useless level when you’re thinking about how how far the market needs to move to get that confirmation but all I’m looking at here is that previous all-time high being the end of cycle 3 at $69,000 for us to see some really positive momentum and price action on our macro time frames we do need to see confirmation above that zone which again is only a few thousand bucks away from New alltime highs so it doesn’t really seem like anything that useful but in terms of Market structure that’s what I want to be seeing for our big picture charts in the earli signal we’re going to be getting that break above 69k is on the daily chart above that $65,000 and that same confirmation trigger I always talk about on the channel being those closes and high lows above the zone so while the macro does continue to look really good let’s just wait for those shorter term time frames to play ball and for those confirmation signals to come about but just to wrap everything up that I’ve discussed in this video for you guys we’ve looked at the US dollar and the potential of a intermediate top to be taking place we just don’t have that confirmation beneath those old highs yet and of course we want to be seeing this chart break down to give us confidence that crypto is ready for another run up and of course the stock markets are also ready to put in a bigger move you can see that inverse relationship play out in stock markets and crypto when the US dollar is falling we typically see higher prices in those other assets that’s something else that I did cover on this video here and many times before but I did want to give you a real-time view of this taking place at least over the last few days now in terms of Bitcoin on the lower term time frames we have the Pivot Point at $64,500 with that next Pivot Point overhead at 66,500 buckss and a break beneath that $63,000 is one of the earliest triggers I’m looking out for to suggest we may be coming back to retest that even $60,000 price point in terms of our 4-Hour analysis I’ll leave that one there it’s about the same price level as the daily chart in terms of overhead resistance at 65k that 65k level does come from the all-time high down to the correction low at least so far so this is one of the most important levels and triggers I’m watching to give me confidence that we’re getting ready to break back to New all-time highs with that pivot point on the weekly chart at $69,000 so I’ve had a huge update for you guys to start your week off as we looked at the announcements some of the important macro data and of course a bunch of charts in tradire and also crypto that’s all I’ve got for you in this market update to kick your week off I hope you found some value in it if you want more from us in Tia crypto hit that link at the top of the video description where you get free weekly reports from us and be kept in the loop with everything else we have going on over there that’s it for me today wishing you more health wealth and happiness and until next time I’ll catch you then [Music]

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⏰ Timestamps
00:00 V-Shape?
00:40 Announcements & Data
04:10 TradFi
06:40 BTC 1-Hour
09:20 Bitcoin 4-Hour
10:10 Daily Analysis
12:10 Macro Analysis
14:10 The Wrap-Up

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