Mastering The Energy Market: Inflation’s Impact ft. Doomberg | #1031

Mastering The Energy Market: Inflation’s Impact ft. Doomberg | #1031

[Music] will inflation send Commodities higher welcome to real Vision Daily Briefing it’s Tuesday May 7 2024 I’m Ash Bennington joined today by doomberg headwriter of the doomberg substack welcome hey Ash great to be here I gotta say crosses off a key item on my bucket list to be interviewed by Ash Bennington on real Vision I mean who could ask for more do I feel exactly the same way it’s like U you know longtime listener first- time caller I’ve been watching on real vision and it’s just a pleasure to have you here and to have this conversation with you today before we get into the weeds I want to since this is your first time having a conversation with me let’s start at the 50,000 foot level and talk a little bit about the way you currently see energy markets big picture you bet so we like to say the single most important thing a macro and should um should answer to themselves is is the global market for primary energy well supplied or in short uh and if it’s long that informs a certain set of views and if the energy markets are short supplies are tight um commodity prices are high that informs a different set of views and if we look across the primary energy Spectrum today we see coal trading between $125 and $150 a ton which is relatively um affordable let’s say compared to historical um averages natural gas in the US is in the middle of a glut um you can’t give it away in some parts of the US which we’ll probably talk about and um the one primary energy input that stands out when you correct for energy content when you sort of normalize dollars per million btu is oil and um oil is trading at a relatively substantial premium to the other primary energy um Commodities and one um you know two things you should of ask yourself about that is is how can you estimate that premium and what is the the Genesis of it what is the source of it so our preferred view to try to get a you know Thumb in the air estimate of the geopolitical risk premium in oil is to multiply landed natural gas prices uh as quoted in dollars per million P2 by6 and compare that to WTI and Brent and if we look today um natural gas landed in Europe or in Asia um is about $10 a million btu which makes it roughly the equivalent of $60 a barrel oil and we see WTI trading around 80 and Brent a little higher which means some portion of that 20 to $25 difference is um as a result of the we think the the the ongoing kinetic conflicts both in Ukraine and in um the Palestinian Gaza Israel Iran Nexus and um in our view if peace were to miraculously and spontaneously appear I we think oil could easily head south of 60 uh and and Below because we do believe at the highest level Commodities are pretty well supplied you have um you know OPEC holding back a couple million barrels a day of production interesting to see how that discipline uh maintains itself um as things progress but by and large there’s plenty of natural gas in the world there’s plenty of coal in the world in the physical markets there seems to be more than enough oil to be had and the only real standout metric that we see on the board today is this geopolitical risk premium in oil and so we view the price of oil as axy for the Market’s assessment of risk of uh uh of the war expanding and and that’s our view today so let’s take that view and talk a little bit about how you express it in terms of positioning uh WTI I know is something that folks here at r watch quite closely I think most people have a rough idea of what that chart looks like uh you know heading down to essentially zero I don’t know below zero uh during the depths of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 shooting up uh during the reopening in May I guess May June July of 2022 to just shy I believe of 120 bucks a barrel now trading on my screen 7845 talk a little bit about how the thesis intersects with price and how you think about expressing yeah so um The Sweet Spot for oil look oil is not a freely traded commodity right me we have like an overt C cartel that has an Express desire to help manage the price it is highly inelastic so a million barrels a day or two million barrels a day of Supply swing can radically change the price as we saw when it traded for minus $37 a barrel at the height of the covid crisis because of basically running out of places to put the stuff and traded up to $130 uh a barrel I think Brent touched uh at the apex of the initial outbreak of War uh in Ukraine um as a result of Putin’s uh invasion of that country and so um another example is um President Biden released a million barrels a day 1% of global daily uh demand for a period of six months and he cut the price of oil in half that gives you um some indication of the sensitivity of the price of the commodity uh with respect to supply deficits for Supply accesses um and so the sweet spot for OPEC is between $7 and $90 a barrel today which uh on an inflation adjusted basis back to like $ 19980 is it’s $25 a barrel I mean oil is still incredibly cheap today for all the talk of peak cheap oil and all that nonsense um there’s plenty of it and it’s Dirt Cheap considering its utility for um you know Humanity um so $70 to $90 a barrel is where OPEC would like to manage the price anything below that and they begin to see budgetary stresses and anything above that and they begin to concern themselves with economic contraction and inflation causing you know pullbacks and things like that and so we’re kind of in the middle of that sweet spot right now I I think when we saw the initial reports that Iran was lobbing a couple hundred missiles and drones into Israel you saw oil Spike and then when Iran preemptively said even before the missiles had landed that this was the end of their conflict in their view uh oil prices collapsed and gold prices collapsed um and so on and so um the one thing that we need to keep an eye on as investors uh whe whatever your views on on positioning is Biden’s extreme attention to the price of gasoline in the US he’s an old school politician um we we personally interacted with his staff when he was the senator from Delaware which we used to jokingly say you know Joe Biden um D comma Dupont he knows the commodity industry quite well he’s acutely aware of the price of gasoline at the pump and how that affects the future runway for for politicians that there’s talk just today that they might tap the spr again the Strategic petroleum reserves to try to manage oil prices down ahead of the election and so when you look at the fact that oil is trading at a substantial premium to the other primary inputs and the president would like oil prices to go down um sets up sort of a short-term scenario where we view the risk to be on the downside I will close by by mentioning a a uh a new substack author Jack John Johnston who’s a really great Commodities Trader and um I think he’s retiring and now starting to write more broadly on Subs had really great note this morning JJ 745 I believe is the substack handle um talking about how the risk of 60 seems more likely to him than the risk of 90 or 100 do you share that view to I do yeah yeah I think look if if we if if we could broker a ceasefire in Israel and um you know the Russians Reach the the NEPA River and and hostilities come to a a close there uh and we have some form of a uh know North Korea South Korea situation where the West claims that these borders haven’t moved and Russia’s just going to occupy the place and dare somebody to do something about it um I think um we could see downside risk to the price of oil um and and on top of that look when you have natural gas trading where is cheap as it is and and we should say Henry Hub has since recovered off the lows which we had thought might have been in at a150 per million btu Henry Hub but um just last week there was a a a pipeline uh Kinder Morgan pipeline declared course majure and the price of natural gas at the waha Hub in the perian Basin is minus $4 Moon bday uh Moon BT today on the screen as as we’re talking that’s a spot price of course but they’re giving away natural gas in the the Beating Heart of the US uh oil and gas in commodity infrastructure in Texas and um that is um eventually people will just switch the engines like they’re not going to burn diesel um with with WTI at $80 or 78 as it is today um when they can burn natural gas and do the same work at a fraction of the price and so the markets will close that Arbitrage over time um in a glut Arbitrage is tend to close down in a supply crisis arbitrages tend to close up um and we have so much natural gas especially in the US and and the thing that people perhaps don’t understand is that the production of oil and the production of natural gas are linked in the US and so this geopolitical risk premium in oil is driving the glutton natur gas because it is co-produced especially in the peran um as an unwanted byproduct and you you can’t give it away the reason why they’re paying people to take natural gas in the peran is because they want to sell that oil for $80 a barrel because that’s above their Break Even price or their you know their profit Zone and so perversely War uh will eventually be the undoing of that um of that that energy Arbitrage when you correct your content this is so fascinating for me dunberg is barely a tourist in this space where you are a permanent resident but it’s fascinating to me and it’s really interesting I I want to talk about natural gas and just a minute uh but I also want to ask you something about something because it’s generally in the news for political reasons you mentioned the spr the Strategic petroleum Reserve uh I am again just a visitor in this space but I’m looking right now on the eia website this is the US Energy Information Administration at the spr reserve stocks and what I see here is a peak it looks like around 2 uh 10 at just shy of three4 of a million barrels uh staying relatively constant rolling down uh in 2020 to maybe 630,000 barrels and now we’ve cut that in half since President Biden has tapped that what are the risks in doing so if we get below say a quarter of a million barrels so um need to correct you by six ORD of man uh sorry three of magnitude it’s it was three4 of a billion barrels of oil and now there’s some 300 and and change million barrels of oil uh all right it’s it’s expressed in thousands this is how you know I’m a tourist well actually Bloomberg has this crazy they they express it in Thousand barrels but then the U the chart is in millions so it’s 365 million thousands and I don’t know why they just don’t say 365 million but I I can’t doomberg I can’t I can’t imagine why I would be confused exactly but nonetheless um one of the things that people need to realize about the Strategic petroleum Reserve is it was constructed as a consequence of the supply crisis as a result of the Oil Embargo of the 1970s the yapo war and back then um the main us political establishment thinking was that um Herbert’s Peak was right and the US had reached peak oil production it was already a major importer of crude and would forever be and what has changed in the intervening period is the share Revolution so we filled the Strategic we built and filled it when we needed it because we were net energy importers and by a wide margin but the sh reg revolution has made the US a gigap power in energy we produce 20% of the world’s oil and petroleum products we produce 30% plus of the world’s natural gas we’re still the net exporter of coal we have some 95 nuclear reactors operating with really great uh capacity factors we have um an abundance of of food and fertilizer and the to export them we are a a superow in energy today unlike the world has ever seen I believe and I quote Luke Roman in this regard that we’ve added two and a half Saudi Arabia worth of BTUs uh since the Advent of the shell Revolution and so the is that now is that to total energy production capacity including natural gas yeah gas and oil two and a half like a BTU normalized yeah exactly and then by the way we have a unlike most Petro States we have a relative still despite China’s best efforts to hollow it out we have a relatively robust manufacturing sector that can feed off of that natural gas and do quite well for themselves you know if you’re a fertilizer maker in the US who gets to price your your product on uh in the global markets you’re pretty happy to have somebody pay you to take natural gas so that you can make your fertilizer um whereas you know if your competitors are paying $10 a million btu for land at LG then you’re going to win in that market you you’re going to climb the cost curve um quite well so um when the spr was built we needed it and we were short and now we’re long we’re net exporters we have more refining capacity than we need we’re net exporters of refined Goods like gasoline and Diesel um in parts of the country we still have to import because of various insanities like the Jones act which doesn’t allow us to like ship you know um Diesel from the Gulf Coast of Texas to New York Because unless you know it’s a US flag ship and we don’t have any such ships because we’re not in the Marine business anymore um so but nonetheless um we have this this abundance of of of energy in the US and so it it seems Reckless it is certainly political like it’s overtly political so I can understand why people who might be Trump supporters think it’s a dirty deal for Biden to empty the spr ahead of the midterms to save a few House Seats and now ahead of the presidential election but he’s going to do it and um on the pantheon of risks that the US is taking that’s relatively small compared to the fact that we’ve allowed for example China to hollow out our manufacturing sector especially in the military supply chains in fact we we in our Doom Zoom presentation for our Pro tier this month we we half jokingly called China the new Arsenal democracy because all democracies have outsourced their military supply chains to China and we just assume they’ll keep giving us these critical Goods when uh when when we go to war with them it’s insane but I dig grasp the spr will be emptied ahead of the election if Biden needs it it will be overtly political and it’ll work it will swing a few percent of Voters because people care about the price of gas but interestingly what I hear you saying is compared to the other risks that you see in the economy around energy around supp chains and elsewhere uh you believe that the new Supply Dynamics in the United States makes uh emptying the Strategic petroleum Reserve though it is in your view an overtly political act far less dangerous than it might seem on the surface because of the productive capacity of the energy sector in the United States correct I mean again if we were net oil importers and we were at the behest of the Saudis it would be a different story now look if you’re Europe you’re still in that situation but you know Europe has got its own insane energy policies to deal with the US is an energy gigap power today there’s no there’s never been a country more powerful more prolific from an energy perspective than the United States of America in 20124 um period and that has to be the first input into geopolitics into economics well think that that like Puzzles us you know we wrote a piece early this year called slick Landing where we predicted that it would be highly unlik that the US would slip into a recession and we tried to explain why we thought that was you know we all know that if oil goes to $150 a barrel we’re probably going to see recession in fact last time it peaked out in that range we saw the great financial crisis of of 0809 um we also know that if um oil spikes $150 or $200 or $300 we’re going to see inflation um and we also know that Germany screwed up its energy policy and it is undergoing massive de-industrialization and struggling with a recession why would it not be then that the exact opposite of those things we’re swimming in cheap hydrocarbons we can’t give away natural gas we produce more than enough of the oil that we need we were’re net exporters of coal we have the world’s best nuclear and largest and best nuclear power Fleet still until China laps us um why wouldn’t it be that that concoction um would be something that might insulate us against a recessionary impulse especially when you have Congress wastefully spending so much money in running these large deficits and you have an overtly political fed that is has an eye on the election and everybody in Washington DC wants to keep the orange man out of the White House like how is this a recipe that’s going to bake a recession cake I I don’t see it um we don’t see we made the call we’ll see if we’re wrong we’ll try to figure out why and we’ll admit it but you know I I think lots of people have a political lens when they try to view sort of macroeconomic numbers they want Biden to fail they want oil prices to go up they want gasoline prices to go up um that that’s just not in the cards like I I I just don’t see you have to be the difference between an analyst and Advocate is you try to read the the numbers on the screen and do your best to interpret them um and that’s our view look we we came to some prominence during an energy crisis but that doesn’t mean we’re permanent energy Bulls like the very most important question you have to ask is are we short or long energy and the Very nature of that question is there are two possibilities and once you convince yourself of one or the other you have to go with it um and we think the world is long Commodities today gosh that’s so well said advocacy just seems like it’s bleeding into everything in 2024 on both sides of the aisle uh and it’s a real Challenge and it’s one of the reasons why we’re so happy to have you here on real Vision to cut through a lot of that noise by the way doomberg uh before we move on to the next segment I wanted to give you the opportunity you mentioned the pro tier tell folks if they’re interested in hearing more about what we’re talking about right now where they can find you where they can find your content sure all our work is at doomberg dcom we recently ejected a squatter um from that domain name at at no small cost I suppose that’s a compliment that we had to pay off to get rid of s squatter and they made a good investment but we’re we’re now doomberg dcom we’re still um substack site and we are partners with substack um we have two tiers we have a um an annual subscription tier where you get all of our articles and you get to comment on all the pieces and interact with us um and then also we have this Pro tier for um perhaps wealthier or even uh some people who work on Wall Street to um get additional access to doomberg and that tier also gets a monthly webinar from us uh either a presentation we put together or a high-profile guest and um and so those are the two tiers we have but basically you know this is the work of Our Lives we publish seven or eight pieces a month and one Doom Zoom a month as we call it for our Pro tier and uh this is all we do and and it’s really a blast I can’t even imagine publishing seven or eight pieces a month you know we were joking before we went on the air we’re a very small team but um when you find what you were meant to be doing in life you just keep doing it and um these um pieces uh just sort of come to me and then we research write edit publish promote defend um all of them and sometimes we’re wrong and we admit it and we learn and we have this amazing Network we have uh we’re approaching 230,000 subscribers on the doomberg platform which means we have this vast network of experts to tap into for ideas and for and Consulting on pieces as we’re working them and oh this person that I know works in the the utility industry and their very senior position at such and such a company let’s Reach Out them off the Record and find out whether we’re characterizing this right and so on and so and then we have a Cascade of of um really interesting story ideas coming to us every day via email and we try to respond to every subscriber and so it’s just really fun you know again like when you find what you’re meant to be doing you know good Lord just keep doing it and that’s our plan and so back to the whole advy versus analyst thing look an energy crisis would be great for dber um as measured by our subscription business for example um we’re not cheering for an energy CR is we are trying to analyze the markets and call the balls and Strikes as we see them because our goal is to still be doing this in 10 years right and the more credibility you build with your Audience by calling it as you see it and look we get things wrong we were early to the European energy crisis and we were we hung on to that thesis too long um but then we were pretty quick to call the coming glut in natural gas which I think we got right um and we were certainly deadstone right you know Dead To Nuts right on the sanctions policy and that it would backfire and so we’ve got some big calls right we’ve gotten some big calls wrong uh you nobody bats a thousand in this business and as one of our subscribers who appreciates our authenticity and our in our analysis said to us the only thing worse than being wrong is having no opinion give me your opinion show me your homework and I’ll do the rest and so that’s our view very well said uh talking of which I want to take a look at another view this is Andreas steno Larson and we’ll talk about his view when you get back piece called What If the Fed holds rates steady uh this is from today 57224 let’s take a look at that clip when you see such a decline in the input price of everything from energy to chemicals to food you typically see a tendency towards increasing order books because of falling prices um so basically the opposite of what an economic textbook will tell you but what happens when prices decline is that a lot of people assess that this is a good timing to buy and load up on on inventories and that’s essentially what we’re seeing the first signs of now um and if I’m right that’s a very positive sign for the overall commodity cycle during the rest of the year and when we pair that um real world reflation or inflation with Easy Financial conditions I still think Financial conditions are pretty easy especially in the US we probably still have an inflation problem down the road jber I think you may have a slightly different view from Andreas St lson let’s give you a chance to respond sure first of all a big fan of Andreas um love his work um always try to catch him when he’s uh when he’s out there and um I I I watch that clip with interest I think one thing that’s really important for people to differentiate is um you might be in the commodity sector but you are either a producer of Commodities or a user of Commodities and where you’re drawing that Commodities line so if I look at that chart that Andreas showed you know the chemical industry for example which is one we know quite well they are in the US benefiting greatly from cheap natural gas and so of course Global investment is to come to the US and perhaps stay away from Europe or Asia because we have this natural gas advantage and that is a key input into the chemical sector um the chemical industry is dotted with co-generation facilities they the two things you need to run an integrated chemical plant like BSF or you know pick your favorite um is you need electricity you need steam you need industrial grade heat and you get both of those from a natural gas fired power plant and so if you’re a producer of natur gas you’re in the commodity sector and if you’re in the chemical industry Wall Street investors think they’re in the commodity sector but in reality they are benefiting from this natural gas gulut so you always have to ask yourself when you’re analyzing an industry or a stock or company um what are their inputs and what are their outputs what are they paying for their inputs what are they what are they what are they get to charge for their outputs and so if you look at the fertilizer companies like we mentioned earlier like you want to be in the US today if you’re making fertilizer because fertilizer is a globally traded commodity fertilizers are globally traded Commodities and your inputs basically are natural gas and so if you’re $2 a a million btu Henry Hub but you get to charge ammonia Global prices out of Tampa for export you’re going to be printing cash like literally a license to print cash and if you’re an ammonia producer in Germany right now you’re in the Hur locker and so I think you have to um drill down into regions and uh integration so how back integrated is this particular company um and you know broadly speaking is the fertilizer industry in North America better situated than the Chinese um take Mexico you know Mexico has a huge Advantage right now because it has hard pipes over land to the perum and they’re getting natural gas in abundant Supply at their cheap prices and and if you’re looking at the power sector in Mexico or you’re looking at the chemical industry in Mexico or you’re looking at the automotive industry in Mexico which is a great consumer of electricity and energy um you you can see that when you have this Dirt Cheap natural gas plus access to the North American market via NAFTA and then you have this uh you know foreign investment because of those two factors you could see and begin to understand why it is that that despite the challenges with sort of The Mexican government and the drug cels and so on that we’re seeing this boomlet in Mexico and so um I I and the last thing I would say is I think Commodities Drive inflation not the other way around um and so back to our original question of is our commodity markets well supplied if they are well supplied that’s generally not a well it’s it’s it’s a um headwind for for inflationary spikes um if you have negative natural gas in the premium Basin and you have oil relatively well tained and coal pretty cheap this is not you know conditions that are right for inflation with the big exception of you know the the the the shipping issues in the Red Sea and and other hotspots uh and so on and that that would certainly Drive some inflation but in our view Commodities lead inflation not the other way around gosh dunberg I would love to have you back for a full hour Deep dive just to hear you talk about the natural gas business here in the United States that would be fascinating anytime two hours I’m I’m G take you up on that man that would be awesome bet you bet that would be fantastic all right let’s see if we can do a speed round here we a lot of questions coming in let’s just see if we can hit as many of these as quickly as we possibly can uh I know that folks want to hear from you first one comes from Nick C hi doomberg part of Ralph Pal’s thesis is that we will have to move to more nuclear or have innovation in the energy sector to be able to supply The energy needed to support the new demand that AI will need what companies where are you looking for innovation in the energy sector great question where are you looking for Innovation so first of all I agree wholeheartedly we’ve written about this um quite favorably one of one of the best titles of our pieces which was supplied by Grant Williams called fision ships um we believe that the need for both increased electricity and quality of electricity makes nuclear power uniquely um situated to supply that increasing demand we have this view that the sort of celian computing exponential growth Curve will always be hit that Humanity will rearrange its economies to do so and just just sort of a gut feeling um as sort of a conjecture of how the economy will work that has held true for several decades and certainly since kwell wrote his famous the singularities near book which if you haven’t read it I suggest you buy it and at least read the first chapter after which you will probably put it down and go for a long walk um the the the nuclear Renaissance will be driven by the need for super high quality baseload power that only nuclear power can provide now expressing that view easiest way to do it just get long uranium I suppose the Sprout physical uranium Trust um there are other companies in the space the the nuclear industry is notoriously difficult to invest in um because it’s been overlooked for so long um Sprout also has an ETF which combines a basket of uranium companies as well as some exposure to the Sprout physical uranium trust I believe is um UNM is the ticker I would take a look at that but do your own due diligence and all those things I think there’s significant Tailwind in the nuclear sector um physics will ultimately not be denied and you cannot grow um electricity capacity um without substantial nuclear Renaissance and we’re seeing that today and full credit to the Biden Administration for uh recognizing that fact and we think trying to get ahead of it although we would say the the recent passage of the uranium import ban from Russia seems rather risky certainly bullish for uranium and the whole complex but uh we shall see how that will work out jber I’ve said when physics and feelings Collide physics always wins yeah physics is undefeated in the battle against pla udes that is our preferred expression of that a same feeling perfect that’s that’s perfect uh that just answered John A’s question who wants to uh know nuclear growth long term in the US I think he just answered that um here’s one from Paul English doomberg won’t the US fiscal Quagmire brought on by unrestrained spending along with the fed and treasury moves eventually Drive the market for hard assets uh PM’s Commodities including oil yes well I mean there’s no other way to say it but it’s just a matter of timing and and and uh and your own Horizon right so our narrow analysis of between now and the US election is different than 10 years from now I mean I we are clearly on an unsustainable path I mean a trillion dollars every 90 days in in the in the US uh debt pile nobody believes that’s going to be repaid I mean we’re at the um refinance kicking the can down the road stage of the fiscal dominance crisis um and I think again it boggles the mind that we’re like you know going around the world picking fights with nuclear superpowers when we’re running massive deficits and uh accumulating debt that nobody believes will ever pay back um but it is what it is again like in in the in the medium term absolutely terrible I mean I we see a crisis coming in the short term I think we’ll be able to extend and pretend and punt it down the road and get through the election uh AJ staninger so with this scenario you describing be bullish or bearish for oil refiner stocks what have the refiners based on this thesis sure refiners a little more complex because you’re one step down and China has excess refining capacity you know well for all the talk about China importing oil that exports a lot of finished goods you know China has this way of occupying um critical choke points and Supply chains that make analysis like this a little bit more tricky than just the headlines would allow you to believe um I would say U the most valuable thing to have is a uh grandfathered permit to operate a refinery in the United States like we’re not billing anymore we’re we we occasionally expand you know um big sites if the government allows you but I tell you if if you own a permit operate a Refinery or a chemical plant or other major heavy industry in the United States that is extremely valuable and uh and we’re not we just we don’t know how to build these things anymore and we just don’t and so um what we’re seeing even nuclear power these plants uh you know we we had Mark Nelson on and reported him for our Doom Zoom Pro which we release in a bit for May um nuclear power plants are basically Immortal today and these chemical plants these refineries that have permits that nobody wants to see shut down an environmental occasionally complain about um if they have the permit and they’re there you that’s a license to print cash for a very long time and so by and large over the cycle um refining is is a pretty good business jber I have to say uh this 30 minutes you’ve absolutely crushed it I don’t think I’ve gotten this uh un ignorant this fast uh in 30 minutes ever in my life about energy this has just been a fantastic conversation come back and do a deep dive with me man I would love that anytime you know how to find us and I really enjoyed it and I must say Ash you know I again crossed this off my bucket list uh real Vision Daily Briefing with Ash Bennington you know Maggie love Maggie too so but happy to have participated with you today and I really appreciate the questions from the audience and doomberg dcom if they want to find out more dber before we go final thoughts key takeways we covered a lot of ground here what would you like to leave folks with I keep an eye on the price of gold and the price of oil as pertains to the Middle East um that is the the one thing on the board and I and I do think um people are perhaps underestimating the seriousness with Russ with which Russia is taking all this talk about NATO troops in Ukraine I uh totally underreported story is that Russia called in the ambassadors of France and the UK yesterday and basically gave them a pretty severe dressing down we’ll see uh what happens in Russia I think we’re going to lose the war in Ukraine and the big risk on the board is NATO’s response to losing that war and I I don’t like to want to uncork a whole can of worms here in the last 30 seconds but um keep an eye on Ukraine keep an eye on the Middle East um and if peace were to break out there then I think oil goes down Commodities uh stocks go up um Everybody cheers um but but but just keep an eye on those two things because those are unpredictable one misunderstanding away from $120 oil I don’t want to be like totally bearish oil the geopolitical risk premium is there for a reason it could go both ways um the way in which it resolves uh will be determined by factors that have nothing to do with the physical supply and demand of oil spectacular conversation D I really enjoy this one thanks sir before we go Ral pal has said the economic Singularity is coming we have six years to make as much money as possible in ral’s view uh if you want to hear more about ral’s thinking on this uh get ready for the exponential start with your $1 trial today at realvision doccom thee exponential that’s realvision thee exponential to get more of Ral Pal’s views on all things future thank you so much for watching thank you for listening to real Vision Daily Briefing we’ll be back again tomorrow same time same place see you then have a great afternoon everybody

Doomberg, the pseudonymous author of the Doomberg Substack newsletter, joins Ash Bennington to discuss what recent inflation data means for the commodities sector, how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impact energy markets, and China’s plans to take over the semiconductor industry.

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00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Outlook On The Energy Sector
03:50 – Positioning in Energy
10:10 – The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
21:20 – Inflation’s Impact On Commodities
26:40 – Innovations In The Energy Sector
29:25 – Will U.S. Spending Drive The Market For Hard Assets
30:27 – Refinders
32:22 – What To Watch Out For

Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf