The Honest Truth About Crypto In 2024..

The Honest Truth About Crypto In 2024..

you’re too late to this crypto cycle it’s too late to buy altcoins and there isn’t much upside left in this crypto borun is a very common Mantra that I’m seeing echoed on Twitter over the last few days let me read out some tweets that I’ve recently seen probably the biggest misconception is that normies are coming to buy your coins nope they learned from 2021 and have correctly classified crypto as a scam those who do buy anything buy Bitcoin and eath ult dispersion forever until they all get their own ETFs retail absolutely despises cryptocurrency and these tweets are getting tons of likes views and Impressions pentoshi one of the biggest creators on crypto Twitter said that this cycle should have the largest diminishing returns of every cycle and this tweet here says if I had to guess I’d say we’re entering the eighth inning of this bull market meaning we are at the very very end of the run so this is a very common mindset right now regarding the crypto Market that we are currently late to this crypto cycle and there isn’t much upside left so in today’s video I want to actually unpack this is there any truth to the saying that we’re late what is my opinion of where we currently sit in the crypto cycle and I also have some opinions on the market which actually are proving to be quite controversial in May 2024 and maybe go against the grain of the sentiment in the market right now so by the end of this video you will not only have a clearer picture on how I view the crypto Market but you’ll also have a much better grasp on where we currently sit and also the altcoins the exact narratives within cryptocurrency which are set to benefit the most from this crypto cycle so the first thing I want to do is give you a very quick update adding on from my last video in terms of where the Bitcoin market and the altcoin market currently sits Bitcoin has been chopping sideways it did recently make a lower high it’s still technically above the lower bound of the range here at 61 to 67k but the price action is choppy and the market is a little apathetic and un interesting if you look at total three this really does paint the picture for I think why we are starting to get a lot of this negative sentiment starting to seep its way into the market and that is the fact that look we had an amazing run from October all the way until March 2024 we pretty much didn’t have a single weekly red candle okay we had a few but the red candles were quickly met by a flurry of green 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 eight weekly positive candles in a row and there hasn’t been many weeks during this period this six Monon runup where the market traded sideways you ju deposed that to the last month of price action and you can see we’ve had two negative candles followed by four consecutive sideways candles the last time we had a sideways run was at the start of the year and this was succeeded by a m massive rally to the upside so I do see and I totally accept why these opinions are starting to become apparent because a lot of the altcoins have slowed down this is the altcoin index it’s the total three in terms of their propensity to exhibit positive price action there has been many new launches many of which has been underwhelming and a lot of new dilution coming into the market which has seen altcoin prices stagnate and in some cases reduce over the last month or so I’m going to touch on the dilution a little bit more in a future video because I believe it’s a major problem but I think this current price action does go some way to explaining why this sentiment is seeping in but where do we currently sit in the context of the cycle this is pretty much the question that everyone is asking right now because where we sit will dictate your response in terms of how you navigate the altcoin market if we are truly in the8 Innings of the market then you should probably have a much shorter term time Horizon when it comes to your trades maybe go a bit more aggressive but keeping in mind that we probably only have a few months left if you think we’re slightly earlier in the cycle then you might take the approach of accumulating over the next few months and if we are really early in the cycle then of course you can take a much longer term view towards the market you can accumulate slowly on major dips and stack quality coins so where do I think we currently sit well let’s look at some of the data and then let’s break down some of these tweets here and look at both sides of these arguments because I believe it’s really important stuff to discuss if you’re serious about succeeding when it comes to trading altcoins in 2024 this cycle is nothing like we’ve seen before actually although some of the price action is quite similar and we will look at that in just a second there are some factors which make this cycle completely different from previous cycles and we need to take that into account in order to effectively maximize it so before we get into this question where do we sit in the crypto cycle I want to remind you that if you’re looking to trade crypto on an exchange that doesn’t Force kyc you can trade on blof and get access to a variety of pairs both across per markets and spot markets and actually right now I’m doing an exclusive campaign only for four more days so this ends on May 12th if you are watching this video before May 12th you are in luck because there’s four more days to register using a link in the description below and you will qualify for a $30 Futures bonus for depositing any amount so that means you can deposit $1 $5 $10 and you will get a $30 voucher that you can trade with by the way this Futures bonus will be issued at the end of The Campaign so from the time of recording in 4 days time on May 12th this is limited to the first 500 users I did check my stats before and although we did have 500 signups not all 500 have actually deposited and are thus not eligible for this giveaway so there is still some room to qualify given the fact that it’s the first 500 not to sign up but actually deposit and once you’ve deposited and gotten this bonus if you trade only $11,000 worth of volume you get another $20 Futures bonus but then as you trade even more you can unlock things like an airpod a Nintendo switch an iPhone and for the whales out there you could potentially get a MacBook Pro Apple Vision Pro or a Rolex depending on how much you trade of course um but if you don’t want to trade for now you can simply deposit and get access to the $30 bonus just for depositing any amount you’ve got to use the link in the description though and this campaign is only running until May 12th so let’s get on to this question where do we currently sit in the crypto cycle well I have a little bit of perspective I want to share with you today the first thing I want to remind you of is and we will get into why this cycle Dynamics is different from the previous Cycles um later in the video because I believe it is but if you just want to look at a pure time and price action perspective and compare this Bitcoin cycle specifically to 2020 and 2016 because those were other Haring years what you can conclude is that where we are currently sitting in May 2024 is the equivalent of where Bitcoin was at the same time in 2020 which is actually super unique and I guess it provides a little bit of opium because this would essentially mean that the bull market Peak would not happen for another year and a half from now because we’ve just had the Bitcoin Haring from the time of the Bitcoin Haring until the peak in 2020 it was another year and a half we had the earlier Peak in May and then we had the secondary Peak in November so that gives you a lot of juice left in the lemon when it comes to time based appreciation and we did see a very similar thing in 2016 it was almost not until a year after the harving that Bitcoin hit its peak now you can argue we’re in a left leaning cycle you can argue the runup prior to the harving was more aggressive than previous run-ups and this is true so you could make an argue that this cycle is slightly accelerated and if that’s the case we won’t peek later next year we might peek in q1 2025 or Q4 2024 I mean that is open for discussion and not every cycle although they rhyme repeats what is for sure though is from a pure cycle perspective coming to any sort of conclusion that we’re in the eighth Innings considering we have currently just had the Bitcoin harving I believe is a little bit nonsensical when it comes to the altcoins which we’ll discuss in a few minutes it is a little bit different from Bitcoin but it’s important to contextualize where we currently do sit for Bitcoin and the bull market progress from a percentage versus other Cycles is sitting around 37 to 40% the other thing that I found interesting now looking at more so the altcoins than Bitcoin and E because this is an altcoin index in front of you is how we are kind of mirroring the Wall Street cheat sheet right now and what I say kind of we’re pretty much exactly mirroring the Wall Street cheat sheet now this is not the be and end all of crypto trading in fact it should simply be a guide to quantify emotions in the market I do believe that there is some validity here to suggest that maybe we aren’t as accelerated as people thought a lot of people thought maybe that March mem coin Mania was the thrill Euphoria stage of the market I’m of a different opinion that we are actually sitting slightly closer to the Hope SL optimism stage of the market and you could even argue the disbelief stage we are still just edging out of as a lot of people are now as you can see starting to fade this crypto cycle irrespective of what exact stage you think we’re in I think a lot of us would now agree that we are somewhere in this area here and this area is full of shakeouts as you can see in disbelief hope and even at the beginning of optimism you get big shakeouts The Hope period is Quantified by a multitude of sideways chop as you can see so if we are in this period Then sideways chop should be expected but this is just a Wall Street cheat sheet it’s not actually reflective of how markets operate it’s just an interesting thing to look at and compare considering we are closely in terms of the altcoin index following the price action that the Wall Street cheat sheet would suggest but in order to really work out where we sit we have to dig even deeper because just looking at things like the Wall Street cheat sheat and the past Cycles although that is pretty good cheap surface level opium it doesn’t really answer the intrinsic questions which are super important in order to understand how altcoins are going to perform this cycle and when altcoins are truly going to Rally this cycle and the main question that we need to ask ourselves I believe is this one where is retail because we know that the past ball runs were fueled by retail Mania we know that these big periods of mass altcoin Market rallying fueled by new liquidity coming into the market what are we seeing this year well we’re seeing a bunch of l2s launch we’re seeing a bunch of new products ship but we’re not seeing any new inflows so although the crypto market cap in terms of the altcoins is technically chopping sideways a lot of alts are bleeding why are they bleeding well because these new launchers are coming and suckling liquidity out of other coins so the most important question in the altcoin market becomes where is retail and once we answer that question we have to ask ourselves if they’re not here when are they actually going to come back so I want to dig deeper into this now because I’ve got an opinion on this which maybe differs from some of the common commentary that you were seeing in the market now the first question we got to ask ourselves is is retail here and the answer is no I mean maybe some people came back for that mem coin run in March but the majority of people that came back to the market during that period weren’t the fresh retail blood they were the existing Deens that dip their toes into the crypto Market in 2021 and decided to come back and maybe do a little bit of trading on salano and AP into some lower cap meme coins but true retail true fresh retail don’t live on decentralized exchanges they don’t even really have a phantom wallet they’re aping random stuff on centralized exchanges and hoping it goes up that’s the reality of true retail and that sub sector of the market despite there being some arguments that they came back in March which I don’t believe is true the started is suggesting that they’re not back you can see here that interest over time for a variety of crypto Search terms but the main one of course being crypto is actually lower than it was in August 2022 right now Bitcoin was 20K in August 2022 just let that sink in Bitcoin was 20K right now Bitcoin is over 60k 3x higher but search volume is lower now the main reason for this being the casee is the recent Bitcoin runup was largely propelled by an Institutional ETF bid SL narrative and it was mostly a Bitcoin narrative and not an altcoin narrative so although Bitcoin has been in a strong Bull Run and although a lot of the alts have been lifted off their lows and the altcoin market has certainly performed well you wouldn’t be mistaken if you are holding a lot of the major caps right now for thinking we’re not even really in a bull run just consider considering the hype and the interest compared to last cycle wasn’t there now I must say last cycle was an anomaly not just for crypto but for the world we had Mass money printing people bought at home receiving stimulus checks aping into luxury watches and Pokemon cards the crypto Market isn’t the only thing that has less interest Pokemon cards have less interest luxury watches have less interest in fact a lot of them APS Rolexes PEX they they’re down 50% in price right right so it wasn’t just crypto which was a beneficiary of this period it was also a bunch of other asset classes and collectible classes people had unfettered time and financial access I think right now the financial situation of the world seems to have deteriorated since then in terms of the liquidity side of things and crypto is extremely responsive to liquidity also a lot of people did get burnt in 2021 a lot of people did ape the top because that’s how markets work most people get in towards the top it takes more Capital being injected towards the top of a market to actually move price proportionally as much as previous rallies which does end up meaning that the vast majority of people buy the top and lose money and there’s a chance and I would say there’s a good chance a lot of the viewers here although recently hopefully if you’ve been watching my videos you managed to navigate it well there’s a chance that you also did did buy the top I mean I bought the top on a lot of coins when I was getting a little bit too risk on in 2021 was I able to come out the other side better off yes but that took persistence throughout grinding in the bare Market positioning myself in 2022 against the trend like buying salana at $10 positioning myself in defi all coins when no one wanted to hear about them and starting to play these narratives when the market started waking up in 2023 but the vast majority of people didn’t stick around for that bare Market you know I had the luxury of having a community on YouTube having a Twitter account being engaged with friends in the space that kept me in the game most people didn’t stay in the game and there now seems to be this common thought in the market echoing in the market that retail is never coming back and they hate cryptocurrency just look at some of these tweets retail absolutely despises cryptocurrency we just recently saw the Ohio State’s commencement speaker loudly booed after trying to shill bitcoin so there seems to be an aversion to it in the public sphere we see these Reddit posts starting to shame crypto and getting a crazy amount of up votes you see here Reddit actually hates crypto so much that it’s pre-drafted anti- crypto arguments that the mob spams at you every time you even mention crypto and Anem actually chimed in on this and said consensus from normal people who don’t like us spend 12 hours a day on Dex screener is that crypto is a scam believe this is mostly due to misinformation spread by tradire Talking Heads over the past decade and has prevented retail from significant wealth creation which is true narrative needs fixing and then this was to top it all off and and you can see I did a lengthy response to this which is one of the reasons which triggered me to make this video today this tweet here that says probably the biggest misconception is that normies are buying your coins nope they learned from 2021 and have correctly classified crypto as a scam and those who do choose to buy are going to buy something like Bitcoin and eth Al dispersion forever until they get their own ETF so basically saying the only coins that can perform other ones with ETFs now I wrote an absolute rant and in this rant I believe holds the key to the question we asked earlier about is retail ever going to come back I vehemently disagree with this statement I completely disagree with this statement sure retail might not just ically come back to the market I do believe that a lot of people did get burnt as I mentioned before and I also believe that there’s no magic wand like the 2021 liquidity bubble that is going to get people sitting at home bored with stimulus checks aping into random coins in the market again those conditions can’t be recreated but what people are forgetting is just how much has been built over the past few years and just how much more advanced the crypto Market is now compared to the 2021 Bull Run 2021 was basically the year where most of the crypto VCS entered the space started writing checks trafi realized the power of it started fom moing started actively investing into the space and thus we had this development boom start to occur did the development boom start start to occur in 2018 2019 no why because these projects weren’t getting funding the boom occurred in 2021 but to develop a good app how long do you think that takes one year two years 3 years I mean Facebook when did that launch like 2006 probably wasn’t a very usable product until I think 2012 is when it really started to hit its peak around the time when they bought Instagram right pretty much every social media app like YouTube which you’re watching this on like I was an OG like user of YouTube when I was like 8 9 10 years old way back in the day when YouTube first launched it was almost unrecognizable from today it’s an amazing product now compared to what it was back then great apps take time especially complex decentralized ambitious applications which are trying to literally reshape the fabric of the financial system that takes a lot of time so when it comes to this expectation in cryp that we’re going to have all this infrastructure within a year or two it’s like it’s totally nonsensical but the amazing part is we’re now in 2024 it’s been 3 years since that massive wave of development and I can tell you from being someone that is now behind the scenes in the space working with projects seeing what’s being built meeting Founders interviewing Founders we are so much further ahead now than what we were back then and the amazing thing is although retail may not come back from this magic wand stimulus list that we got in 2021 they may very well and in fact not May well I believe they will come back once we have those killer applications and use cases which are attractive enough to get retail through the door and I believe we are seriously close we have some serious candidates like crypto gaming or for more sophisticated retail rwa which is a massive Innovation on the existing barriers to entry in the asset space I mean across a variety of sectors for example the stock market so equities but also real estate Commodities bonds Etc that’s just one point and we’ll elaborate on this point in a second but the second Point as to why it’s very likely retail comes back is because of the reflexive nature of crypto humans are innate gamblers the higher prices go the more people want to gamble and speculate on price that’s just how it works the other way it works is the more desperate people become the more depressing the world becomes the less hope there is crypto is a Beacon of Hope for a lot of people just as sports betting and gambling and that is unfortunate but it’s the truth is hope for some people as well Lottery as well lottery tickets I think we’re at their all-time high high sales so far this year and crypto is one of the easiest ways to speculate in the world in terms of gambling and it’s the biggest casino in the world and one of the most accessible casinos in the world mem coins are a new form of gambling a form that probably appeals to the younger generation more than your traditional you know Lottery systems Etc and when you want to talk about speculation what is one of the biggest bubbles in the world right now it’s the AI bubble now if you want to invest in AI how do you invest you you’ve got to buy traditional stocks on the stock market it takes 2 days to unrra your money you make a trade on very complex and juny infrastructure and then you sell and you pay 50% tax on it and then you offramp and it takes another two days and like it’s it’s so inefficient you pay a 10% brokerage fee if you want to speculate on AI the easiest way is through crypto and AI is one of the biggest bubbles I think we’re ever going to see like you haven’t even seen anything yet trust me it’s going to get absolutely crazy and crypto is one of the easiest ways to speculate on that so the list of reasons why people could come back and and and the list of niches that could attract people is pretty much endless but I I do believe AI gaming and gambling SL mem coins are the three strongest compelling verticals for this so yes maybe retail isn’t just going to come back again randomly but I do believe there is a much stronger value proposition Now versus last cycle and the second this flywheel starts to take place the second a lot of these comments about us being late to crypto are going to start to seem really dumb like as Becca says in front of you crypto seems common to us we’re in this space maybe every day you’re on Twitter you’re on YouTube watching this video but we’re a tiny minority 199 99.9% of people on the street do not know what salana is we are very early from a mind share perspective and once some of these flywheels start to take hold the Mind share is only going to grow and by default that makes us very early so are you early in terms of buying Bitcoin at 10K versus 70k I mean no objectively we can say no but are you early in terms of the growth and Adoption of this space the answer is a resounding yes and for that reason we have a lot of upside left in my opinion I just want to touch on a couple more potential verticals that could get retail in as well so we talked about AI we also have payment rails which offer accessibility let’s not forget why crypto was created it’s to democratize access to the the financial system so although the speculative stuff is really fun and I like talking about it let’s remember it’s still one of the best ways to transfer a large amount of wealth in a fast manner efficiently cross border permissionless I mean it’s amazing if you’ve ever done a crypto transaction it’s absolutely amazing you can literally pay for anything you can transfer as much as you want it’s awesome it’s honestly awesome and I think people that use crypto regularly you know have realized this but the majority of the world has Becka points out haven’t yet there are so many real world use cases which we haven’t even scratched the surface on I mentioned AI before you also have gaming gaming is one of these narratives right which actually genuinely we haven’t seen anything yet the point that I’ve made in this video about the development inflection point happening in 2021 that’s even more true for gaming because gaming was one of the narratives that ran really late in the year and most of the checks the highest amount of funding actually happened in q1 and Q2 2022 it’s been 2 years only to develop what people expect will be AAA games no wonder no amazing game has launched but we are about to get there we are starting to see the first signs of these major triaa titles coming to Market Godzilla is a good example this is an ecosystem that I invested into their first game is the Battle Royale Off the Grid it looks killer the graphics are killer but the most important thing is it’s coming to PS5 Xbox and PC and they have a token and a node system powering the entire economy so this is really going to be one of the first tests for web 3 gaming in practice in front of a large audience not just one of these crappy little axy click farm games that you can play you know play to earn games it’s not play to earn it should be play and earn just like a regular game except the economics can actually incentivize virality that’s what a a true economic system should achieve in the gaming market so a game like off all it takes is one game for crypto gaming to become a narrative again and get real users that are on PlayStation and Xbox through the door into crypto using it without even knowing they’re using it that is the key to real crypto adoption so all it’s going to take is one game crypto gaming bang and that definitely could be Off the Grid it’s a very strong candidate for making that happen and as I mentioned before meme coins you cannot fade meme coins coins like Pepe and Doge are actually operating more as more effective proxies to salana in the case of whiff and eth in the case of Pepe than salana and eth themselves in the market so there’s kind of this new generation of memes which I think could actually rival the doers and the shibs of the world in the near future popcats performing well as well there are a bunch of other meme coins I won’t mention today that that I’m interested in there are more Community focused coins that are starting to launch so meme coins are a massive vertical and there isn’t just money in the high caps like you could see here which do do you know appeal to retail because they’re on centralized exchanges some of them Etc but there’s also a huge opportunity in just understanding the meme coin space and you know doing it on chain because that’s how you can spot a lot of these memes early and as Elio says here memes actually appeal to retail now more than Bitcoin he says the problem about BTC is it’s completely unrelatable now ain’t no one from college trying to buy 03 Bitcoin with their beer money instead most of the students probably aped Doge at the peo top last cycle when Doge hits a dollar plus I think that is the bat signal Bitcoin is no longer a mainstream thing SL only institutions and deletes want an asset that’s expensive most college students can’t afford groceries and this was in response to this post here which was commenting on the fact that Bitcoin rallying didn’t change retail’s opinion well it’s obviously not going to change retail’s opinion they’re not interested they feel like they’re late to Bitcoin now I love Bitcoin but the recent rally does suggest it is because it’s been ETF driven a more institutionalized rally and and probably the most institutionalized rally we’ve seen which is amazing actually for The credibility and Adoption of the space but it does answer the question you know why hasn’t retail come yet so hopefully that gives you some more perspective on how I view the market I think we are early I’m very optimistic about the future of this space I don’t think we are very far from some major catalysts I mean if you even look forward to the next few months we have chd5 releasing a lots of AI stuff releasing that could be great for the AI Niche we’ve got these proper AAA titles like Off the Grid starting to launch that could be amazing for the gaming Niche the list goes on and on new infrastructure and Tech which makes it easier to onboard retail is launching every day you just have to weather the storm here go into the market with a plan like I discussed on all these videos so make sure you’re subscribed if you aren’t already and have that post notification Bell turned on and even if the next few months are sideways and a bit choppy I think once it’s all said and done at the end of this cycle it could be one of the most explosive adoption Cycles we have ever seen so no you are not late to the market and that is my TED Talk for today I’m going to see you in the next video if you do want to trade any crypto remember we’ve got that bonus for you for the first 500 users only only for 4 more days it ends on May 12th to give you a $30 Futures bonus on any deposit and then of course you can unlock these amazing rewards the more you trade Link in the description to access that it’s non kyc which obviously is a plus and I will see you in the next video have a lovely rest of your day peace

In this video, I discuss where we currently are in the crypto cycle, and attempt to unpack the newly formed narrative that suggests ‘we are late’ in this cycle, with minimal upside, if any, left for Bitcoin and altcoins!

Sign up to Blofin and trade with NO Restrictions + claim a FREE $30 bonus (& win an iPhone, Macbook or Rolex!)
👉https://partner.blofin.com/d/MilesDeutscher

Topics Discussed:
-BTC
-Crypto market update
-Altcoin cycle
-AI, Gaming and Meme Coins

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/milesdeutscher

Disclaimer: The “Miles Deutscher” YouTube channel is a social podcast for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed by the host should not be construed as financial advice! Listeners are encouraged to do their own research.

#crypto #altcoins #bitcoin
___________________________________________________________________________
0:00 – Intro
2:05 – Bitcoin Technical Analysis + Crypto Market Update
4:15 – Where Are We In The Crypto Cycle?
12:23 – Where Is Retail?
26:08 – Crypto Gaming + Meme Coins
29:53 – Outro