The Fed is Lying; We’re Headed for Times Worse Than Great Depression Warns Insider Bert Dohmen

The Fed is Lying; We’re Headed for Times Worse Than Great Depression Warns Insider Bert Dohmen

[Music] hi this is Danel cambon and welcome back to the danela cambon show here on itm trading well Jerome Powell has just come out and said he is fed up with hearing about stag inflation and saying he’s not seeing any signs of a stag flation or talk that we’re heading into some sort of 1970s environment but after three hot inflation reports to start the year and some disturbing signs of persistent price pressures in the first quarter GDP report some investors have begun to fear that the US could be headed for a repeat of the Stag flary 1970s here to talk about this and so much more is Bert doen you might know him from the Wellington letter Bert always good to be with you welcome back to the show it’s so wonderful to be with you Danielle well I thought of you when I was uh listening to poell because I know that since March at least you’ve been warning that we are um in stagflation so what were your thoughts when you heard Powell push back on this concept yeah okay let me just explain the Stag flation for people who don’t know what it is okay St stagnant economy that is not growing and uh higher higher prices Rising prices so you get inflation and you get a weak economy that is stack flation it’s really the the nightmare for Central Bankers because none of their ancient tools that that never work anyway but they totally will not work in that type of an environment because if they fight inflation with tight money you get a weaker economy you get a deep recession or worse as we saw in the 1930s and uh so uh it was incredible when any of these type of people like Powell and so on uh are so vehement in denying something you know that that is in fact the truth you know whatever they deny is the truth the the truth is the opposite in other words so right now U it depends on what number you use all of these people use the official statistics uh for inflation and for labor and for the economy from the Bureau of lab statistics and those are false false false numbers they are just like a fairy tale uh I mean in every issue of our Wellington Ed which is usually about two a month it’s you get about 50 pages of analysis we talk about the false numbers from the BLS for example one month last year I think was January last year they had a gain of 517,000 jobs and then then we said that’s impossible POS in January you never have that in January and so we went to the BLS website to their own website and we found out that there were two and a half million job losses so they were off by three million jobs in their official announcement you know because they only take seasonally adjusted numbers seasonally adjusted means these are untrue these are fake and this is a fairy tale they seasonally adjusted they never reveal how their seasonal adjustment work so let me ask you this burp because the the April jobs report showed that the US job market showed signs of cooling with just 175,000 jobs so they didn’t come out with an exuberant number here but you still don’t believe it no no there actually negative if you look at the charts that we look at uh the American Born jobs in fact they have been declining since 2018 so if you’re American Born you’re likely to be in danger of losing your job the foreign the foreign born U uh job holders have been increasing slightly and that is why these statistics are higher Al the BLS the uh the put in the IND the numberly temporary workers like I think it was recently we had 303,000 increases in jobs you know well they were all part-time jobs part-time jobs they don’t pay the bills you know and so all of these statistics you have to not believe them you know Drake president rean used to say uh you know trust but verify uh I always say verify before you trust I want to bring up another Point uh from your report this one was from April 208 28 sorry a correction and gold will be a buying opportunity where you talk about the FED fighting inflation and for you say it’s all talk and you point to The Soaring uh money supply talk to me about this yeah money supply M2 which is the important one uh we always used M3 in the older days but then they did away with M3 but because it revealed too much of what they were actually doing so then we had to depend on M2 M2 has been rising since late last year money supply Rising does not uh uh basically confirm any tightening of monetary policy when monetary policy tightens then you have a drop in a loans loan creation we showed the chart of bank loans they’re going up up up every month there is no sign of any withdrawal and the trick here of the FED is that they always consider interest rate increases they call that tightening interest increasing interest rates without reducing or restricting loans is inflationary it’s actually achieves the exact opposite and this is what put my company on the map my company started in January of 1977 so a long time ago and there was a start of double digit inflation which got up to 15% the FED funds rate got up to 20% the prime rate got up to 21 a half% in 1980 so uh that was a very inflation period and we C that on the button when the new fed chairman G William Miller at that time he took Arthur Burns’s place and he came and he said we’re not going to fight inflation with tight money we’re going to do it with interest rate policy in other words we’re going to keep on raising interest rates and we wrote at that time that is a prescription for soaring inflation by gold and silver with everything that you have and as we saw we the huge B Market in all Commodities in fact and gold and silver until 1980 when Paul Walker came in and so this fiction that higher interest rates are fat tightening is should be totally discarded and unfortunately every person every analyst you see coming on to TV says that and I don’t and my question is of do they really believe this or is this just part of the the fake story that they always try to perpetually like everything is well the economy is robust the economy is not robust we’re losing people you know all the time jobs job Creations you know they’re go a big downside we show those charts in the Wellington letter you know and so we debunk all these false hoods coming out of Washington Washington is a manufacturer of false economic statistics just getting back to your point about um stagflation because I want to give context to the people back at home because you know we hear we hear all these terms they’re thrown at us but explain to us the dangerous I mean if we are are do you think it would be equal or worse or not as worse to this stack flary environment that we saw in the 1970s uh it really depends how how you consider worse you know what do you look at is it the weak economy that’s bad or is the high inflation what what is the worst for you people have a lot of money uh they would probably like higher inflation gives them higher interest rates higher Returns on properties that they rent out and so on other people who don’t have much money they don’t like the higher prices it kills them it kills the family budget so it all depends on what situation the person is in yeah a valid point I guess what I’m getting at is when people hear the word styf flation and especially for people new um to perhaps economic terms I mean how should they prepare what is one to do in a sty flary environment how are you best protected well the first thing that you have to do is don’t listen to economists especially if they have a PhD you know when I was in college I my degree I got in chemistry but I was very curious why are economists always so wrong so I took two years of Economics you know uh and and I found out why there was all so wrong these false economic theories so you want to educate yourself read some books on it’s called the school is Austrian economics that was created about a 100 years ago LC fores uh was in there and so on so they believe in the free market the free market is the economy you know want to watch the FED pretends that they are uh basically steering the economy they don’t steer the economy as a friend of mine always used to say believing that is believing that the little bird sitting on top of a rhino going through the jungle actually steers the Rhino it doesn’t work that way I I want to bring up um something else you wrote this was from uh November 14th of 2023 you said inflation Hedges like Metals gold and silver should do well especially as the danger of a Sharp Plunge in the US Stock Market is now on the back burner as we wrote recently we believe that gold will be at get a new record high soon so uh you know congrats on that call I mean you called that before gold now reaching all-time highs talk to me about your thoughts um on the gold market and then I’ll get to my second question yeah Dani that’s a let’s let’s go back to the last gold bull market 19 late 1970s 1980 so because of our um analysis of the FED policy and so we said this is a green light for inflation full Speed Ahead what the FED just announced you know higher interest rates but not Tight money is said this is ridiculous and it will never work and so we call that right about and the gold gold went up to $800 depending what Market if you’re using futures or what but that’s that’s called $800 and then it started going down and we use Advanced technical analysis that means charts and charts are absolutely necessary to watch if you’re investing in gold and silver and this is so because you get some very very good technical s signals as we got last year on gold and uh so uh at that time we said if it breaks $694 on a down sign we’re in a bare market and uh then it broke $694 and we said that said we made a lot of money buying gold and silver and now we’re going to make a lot of money selling short and we did make a lot of money selling short at in the 198 82 I think it was the put options we had on the Mining stock the put options were worth more than the stocks themselves so it was very profitable timing the market is essential you cannot just buy and hold forever nothing there’s nothing goes in One Direction forever I think it’s interesting that you say um that there’s a lot of you know firms that point to the Middle East problem uh obviously tensions China Taiwan Ukraine as reasons to buy gold however you say those points are not related to the real demand increase for gold as those events all happen before the recent upward moving gold talk to me more about that yes monetary policy is is the one thing that that controls the price of gold you know events like like the war any War I don’t care if it’s Middle East or whatever it is it doesn’t have anything to do with the price of gold you know it’s just basically you got a maybe a ner reaction for a few days when something happens but that’s it you know how can how can it effect it doesn’t mean that people are going to stuff gold bars in their pockets and run across the border to to neighboring country it’s too heavy to do that you know that’s people use diamonds for that you know you don’t believe in the fear trade no no not at all the fear trade does not exist in Precious Metals unless it’s for a few hours so once folks say to you ber well is it too high the price now to get into gold well uh let’s go back to 1980 when when the top in Gold when broke 694 to the downside they said okay we did a long-term study on gold prices going back 200 years in the US and then before it start trading heavily in the US we had to go back to England so we went down about I think 400 or 500 years in time for to get an idea of the gold Cycles Cycles are so important because the cycles of human emotions and U so uh we found that there was a cycle of 20 year bear markets so we said in 1980 it’s going to be a 20-year bear Market people thought that was crazy because everyone was looking for $3,000 gold everybody and I think there were a few people who cancelled their subscription they thought that’s outrageous 20 year bare market and gold cannot happen well the bare Market ended in the year 2000 so exact ly 20 years we were amazed ourselves because Cycles usually they shift a little bit to the left to the right they’re not that accurate but this was right on the button was so and we said our cycle study also says that and this is in 1980 that we wrote this we said the the next bull market the secular bull market will last 30 years and said we have no idea what would cause a 30y years secular B market in gold well now we know it’s this uncontrolled printing of money of the major central banks they are just creating money but they used to have to print actual currency at the Bureau of Engraving which we visited with Congressman Ron Paul one time and um but now they just do with computers it’s computer money you Bo boom boom few keys on the keyboard and you got another trillion dollars you know that’s that’s the way it’s done right now so there is no control to the amount of money that they can print and to even print it faster we’re going to have a digital currency for central banks they’re not they’re trying to get away from that name now because it’s gotten a bad reputation so many people have written about it but we’re going to have that it’s going to be basically like a Bitcoin except manufactured by the Federal Reserve so 30-year bull market right now if that cycle is also accurate we can look forward to 1930 31 but that doesn’t mean it will not have big bare markets like this secular um bull market that we’re in right now had a big correction in 2011 from a high the charts look great Etc people were very enthusiastic about gold and silver and then a plunge mining stocks went down 90% I think there was a hedge fund manager who came out with a special fund for the gold and silver and they were down over 90% uh so uh it can’t surprise you gold and silver is One Market where um our calls the long-term calls have been right on the button but you don’t trade it we always say we’re not smart enough to trade gold and silver those are two markets that are so highly manipulated that you can you cannot trade it very short term you know so right right right it is important to recognize that if you don’t recognize the what the risk exposure you’re going to get killed in markets you know the the markets are not fair the markets are manipulated from A to Z all markets and especially since 2007 when they started the high frequency trading in 2007 that these are computers they can now they control over 80% of the daily volume on the stock exchanges can you imagine that these super fast computers they can enter 90,000 trades per second trades not shares trades per how can you hope to compete with that from your laptop computer at home you cannot you know so you you have to get get a little bit smarter so just getting back to your point then um so has the train not left the station yet for gold well I haven’t seen any trains lately but uh the uh I think we’re still in the early phases of this if uh uh if my forecast on the Cycles is correct and U you know the central banks have been sitting on the price of gold they did not want gold prices to rise so when they the central banks they leased out their Golds to Banks can you imagine they lease gold okay to the banks the banks would take that right they charge course 1% whatever the interest then they sell it on the free market and so on so they didn’t want gold to rise but for that reason I think what what happened in Gold here in the last six months really shows us they stopped their agenda to sit under the price of gold and now it’s you got to have more gold actually right now this is the lowest uh amount of um of Assets in gold in about the last 30 years it used to be I think it was 40 years ago I’m sorry 40 years ago 5% of assets under their management were in Gold 5% now it’s three1 of percent I mean dropped by 90% there’s so such a lack of interest in Gold retail investors are not interested in gold right right I love to see it because it shows us we’re in the early phases right because what happens when the retail investor shows up I mean what kind of price forecasts forecast could we be looking at B yeah I cannot make a forecast on that but uh I mean look at I don’t want to say it I mean we do have price goals on but when you say a big number then every plunges in it they mortgage their house and so on and start buying this stuff I don’t want to lead to anybody losing their home you know this happens people think I’m kidding when I see that in 1987 the stock market crash you may remember that we had a meeting and just by by chance it happened a few days after that crash or a week after the crash and U with the top vice president of the Wall Street firm and um I said well what are you doing here and he said well I’m going around the country foreclosing on houses and it was was a major Wall Street firm and I said oh I didn’t know you guys were in real estate he said we’re not we’re doing margin calls said we’re selling people’s houses because they couldn’t meet a margin call so you read your margin agreement they could take your watch they can take your house they could take your car and I don’t know if they can take your wife and children but but those Agreements are pretty nasty uh you know we’re speaking today uh you know with stocks jumping after the softer than expected April jobs report boosted hopes that the FED could start cutting interest rates soon just curious to get uh your thoughts on this this Market um that’s showing no signs of slowing down ver yeah our forecast since beginning of the year was that the market is going to be in very good shape uh it’s meaning it’s going up not in good shape but the market is going to be going up until probably uh the end of the summer and um that is because the Federal Reserve has no option but to create the money necessary for the US Treasury to sell all their confetti which is called treasury bonds Treasury and not treasury bills they have to sell this in order to raise money for so that bomic can have more to spend to say to the Friends overseas there’s no money there for Americans but uh but we have a lot of friends overseas in the Ukraine Etc that W our money and we are giving it to them where it goes after that is anybody’s guess you um are coming out uh well you just actually released a report on uh AI how you can thrive in the greatest wealth opportunity in decades you say you say the AI frenzy will be bigger than the dotom bubble in the year 2000 yes and that that is um something we are looking at very very carefully and I think the way to end this whole bull market phases with the big frenzy and the best way to generate see is all manipulated the best way to generate the frenzy is AI That’s the easiest thing right now everybody’s AI people don’t have any idea what AI is but they want to be invested in yeah exactly so so we’re getting there and uh you know read read a book or two on the AI so you find out what it is b b but is it frenzy like cryptocurrency was frenzy yes that that’s it and these frenzies last longer than the time so what I could see is uh and this is just a scenario this is not a forecast so we always have scenarios and they have to be validated by by what actually happens and uh so but right now we can see you know bad period for the stock market ahead of the election because I think there’s going to be lots of turmoil that was our forecast for the whole year said riots the burning cities Etc we’re starting to have it right now Wars Etc there going to be uh 2024 and going into the election the election I think for certain people certain groups of people an election where people cannot go and vote and where it’s paper ballots would be more desirable but without paper without paper ballots no with paper where Pap yeah so that nobody goes and votes in person because then you have to you can check an ID but the paper battles are wonderful if you want to you know Stalin said it years ago Stalin said it’s not the people who cast the votes that are important it’s the people who count the votes um let’s wrap with that uh well first of all I just want to let the people know that anyone interested in Bert’s recent report on AI we’ll we’ll throw a link down in the description description below in the of the video um but the last time you were on uh you know the video did extremely well and so many people are writing in concerned about your views that that we were heading into a Great Depression style era um so let’s just wrap on that I mean talk to me we you know that was about 6 months ago where are you at with that now I mean you talk about burning cities Wars riots unfortunately we’ve seen all of this unfold in 2024 um are we headed um towards a Great Depression yes in 2020 you know everyone in our business gives their forecast for the decade and that was my forecast that we would see an environment we said we like the 1930s except probably worse than the 1930s and we list at all these things including famines Etc droughts and wars and Wars was the one thing that hadn’t happened yet was it one year of years ago and then Ukraine started so I said well now all the forecasts are correct already very early in the forecasting cycle so uh we can have that type of period still expect I think everything is super ripe for a deep deep depression and and you know looking at history I mean uh situation today very similar to what we saw in the 70s B right with the Civil War Vietnam protest on campuses I mean what do you make of the similarities between these two decades these are these are Cycles uh there’s a 90e cycle and you go back 90 years you get to the 1930s so these are Cycles they have something to do with human emotions which are cycles and what what determines those Cycles I don’t think anybody is sure there’s a lot of speculation at the Elliot wave for example they have their own theories and so on very very interesting and uh so we’re human beings so we get very enthusiastic and then some bad happens and we get very depressed and these they’re shortterm Cycles like that and then long-term cycles and this is the long-term cycle so 90 years we had a depression so we’re going to have one again now and because the politicians are doing all the same things again as in the 1930s just totally out of control spending we’re gonna have out of control tax increases and um unless there’s an unexpected election outcome and um so they way you’re talking about the tax increases all the Trump tax cuts will be abolished next year you know they they expire basically and that should get us immediately into a deep recession because reduced taxes create prosperity increased taxes create recessions and depressions one last point so what do you tell people when when they say to you ber I’m scared for the future how can we change that mindset no you cannot change the mindset I mean you’re going against the universe and the the laws of nature you cannot change it look at would you have ever expected hundreds of well actually several billion people going and get getting an injection in their arm which is an experimental drug which has which we now know has very bad side effects like death if you call that a side effect or blind is a friend who went blind afterwards and so on so it was terrible stuff but billions of people I think it’s two billion people it’s estimated got that poison into their arms you know just because a big farmer want to make a lot of money and they did it oh yeah my doctor says you know this believe in the doctor is really misplaced you know if you have a doctor that cautioned you don’t get the VAC keep him treasure him like gold but anyway but but this is human emotions who would have ever thought that Americans could be locked up in their own homes that you could be prohibited from going to a restaurant uh because you didn’t have a vaccine card that people were getting false vaccine cards I mean this is so unheard of in a free country and we’re supposed to be a democracy well yeah there was a good Economist I think was L for he wrote Democracy is just a soft form of Communism you know because you know because the the minority can determine what the majority really wants or gets so uh I think right now you have to have the best guidance you can get unfortunately many Professionals in the business have not been around since 1980 I I said that on I think was Rich Dad program I said look for someone who was in the business in the late 1970s if you have an advisor if he wasn’t in the business in 19 late 1970s he will not know what’s going to happen next you know and we were there and we called it perfectly including the big turn from inflation to deflation that Paul V came in he said we’re going to do this and this I said he’s going to win and this is the end of the inflationary boom so but you know in Washington they don’t learn from history uh probably nobody reads anymore the only way you can get knowledge is by reading books and the younger people they say oh yeah all my reading on Facebook well that’s I don’t call that reading you know that’s Entertainment but read books read books yeah uh Bert doen always love speaking with you you can not read more um about Bert’s thoughts from the Wellington letter I thank you always for coming on I’ll let you go surfing now okay Bert okay Daniel thank you very much and I wish your listeners all the best in the future and please don’t listen to cocktail party advice okay yes and don’t listen to TV advice blogs like yours Etc so much better you have great guests on and that’s where you get the truth because they’re allowed to say the truth yes yes I I I I really believe in that and that’s why I’m so thankful to itm for giving me this platform that to have folks like youber you know speaking the truth because I say I really do have the best guests uh on the show and I am so privileged to be in this position of getting to speak with you and on your point to your point about you know seeking good uh you know counsel and speaking to educated people I invite everyone um to reach out to my incredible colleagues over at itm trading you can do so by booking a calendly it’s a calendar appointment it’s in the description uh below it’s a free session where one of these incredibly educated people will walk you through concerns or help you build a strategy of course surrounded around gold and silver uh which we see as the ultimate solution uh with the times that lie ahead and don’t forget to sign up at danela kumon.com to stay on top of all these great interviews we will see you soon thanks for watching thanks Bert Dan one what can I say one more thing please we have a free report it’s I think it’s about 24 ptients on the markets now and what may be ahead it’s free and it’s is very s because we uh we get good money for our writings and research there’s a free report you get on our website doen capital.com doen capital thank you and I will put uh we’ll put that free report description um also yeah below of this video so lots of good information read it all folks thank you thank you okay bye [Music]

“Washington is a manufacturer of false economic statistics,” says Bert Dohmen, founder of Dohmen Capital Research. In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, Dohmen criticizes the Bureau of Labor for inflating job numbers by including part-time positions that ‘don’t pay the bills.’ He also delves into the gold market’s performance cycle, suggesting we’re entering a 30-year bull market fueled by major central banks’ unchecked money printing. Meanwhile, Dohmen’s optimistic outlook on gold extends to the anticipation of retail investors joining the market, driving prices even higher. Lastly, he reiterates his earlier prediction of a tumultuous 2024 marked by ‘riots, wars, and burning cities,’ particularly in the lead-up to the election. Link to Bert’s Latest Free Research Report: https://dohmencapital.com/freeaireport

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📖 CHAPTERS:
00:00 Stagflation
3:41 April job numbers
4:48 Money supply
7:55 Stagflation compared to 1970s
8:56 What to do with stagflation?
10:11 Gold price
20:34 Market
21:43 AI frenzy
23:59 Great Depression
25:30 1930s and now
27:07 Concluding words

LINK TO WELLINGTON LETTER: https://dohmencapital.com/services/wellington-letter/

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