Why did the Market crash today? | Political Uncertainty? | What next? | CA Rachana Ranade

Why did the Market crash today? | Political Uncertainty? | What next? | CA Rachana Ranade

e hey folks R here and I welcome you all to a very very important live stream because today we are going to talk about some important points today markets were jittery especially the fall that we saw today uh put a lot of questions in so many people’s minds that today a key support 22,000 was broken the psychological support we call that was broken markets went down by almost 350 points today so that was that was not a small fall that we saw so a lot of people have loads of doubts in their minds that if Market fell then why did it fall uh is this like if a crucial level is broken then could there be continued weakness in the market which could take it lower and lower and lower if it were to go lower where does the market seek its first support if that is broken where could the market seek its second support right so we going to try and answer all these questions that number one what could have been the first trigger of the selloff uh we are also going to not we not going to talk only about one trigger we are going to talk about two three triggers as to why we are seeing some sell off in the market as a long-term investor what should be our strategy is what we are going to discuss today uh some some super important Concepts I was about to tell the whole story right but uh fii’s data I’m going to show you some fii data but that will blow off your mind that is this so I mean how could we I mean the correlation between fii selling fi is buying versus the market reaction it’s it’s a fun data point so that also we are going to see today so we are going to start with the Nifty levels no doubts on that but first of all Hardy welcome to all our new members uh giridharan uh Joseph uh Gori Satish Nita snea yogesh Manoj a warm welcome to all the members himman G thank you for uh the super sticker so yes and of course sandep as well so a lot of members joining in today uh so very very very warm welcome to everyone and also to nain okay so is saying everything is going down but T is Still rocking of course yes T Motors is doing well and tomorrow I think yes tomorrow is at 10 so uh tomorrow tat Motors will come up with its results so really looking forward for the result for those who all are are pro- investor members if you remember we have discussed about tataa Motors in absolute detail we have talked about the jlr segment how it contributes to data Motors and you know we have indepth covered tataa Motors in that video wherein we said that EVS is one part of the story but jlr sales is the bigger story uh where in it coming into profits is going to be a big you know level up for tataa Motors so we have discussed that in detail no doubts on that but today rather than uh I mean initiating our live stream with uh Tata Motors is not I is not what I intended uh today uh talking more about the broader level is what I intend to tell you so uh we are going to discuss about the Nifty levels but first and foremost let’s try and understand what could be the top reasons for the market Fall okay and then we’ll talk about trading view I I’ll show trading View and then we’ll talk about the levels right so uh if you read the news carefully you see that one thing which is being talked about a lot is political uncertainty uh again I am not a political pundit uh I’m not even pee out of that entire Pandit uh my knowledge about politics is like pretty basic level okay so I’m not the one who can uh gauge the overall thing that state I I really can’t do that I’m not good at uh you know that specific point but what is actually bothering a lot of people is the low voter turnout okay so in the first phase of the election whatever were the whatever was the expected turnout for the voters that did not happen uh I saw some news channels covering that almost 3% three and a half% the voting was down as compared to the previous voting uh but then I think Election Commission also came up with the report that it is not like as bad as 3% down as compared to the previous one it’s somewhere around 1 point something per okay so see irrespective of which party wins okay I I have always said this so many number of times that it’s always good from the market perspective is what I’m saying it’s always good that one single party has full majority okay and if they are into uh full majority what is the biggest Advantage is that they can take policy decisions in a very clear Direction number one number two uh one shade higher uh you know Advantage if the existing party comes back into Power one more Advantage is that whatever policies they have kickstarted they can continue those same policies they can continue those projects at a similar Pace or maybe at a faster p as well okay so and and the third and most important point is that if uh you are in a specific state where the election has not yet been conducted then please please please my appeal to everyone is that everyone please go and vote on the voting day because it should not happen that you’ll feel that XYZ party will come in power anyone can tell this party will come in power and that is the reason why there’s no need that I go and vote anyways that part is going to come into power if we feel that and if we don’t go then God forbid but if most people think in that similar fashion the results could be Topsy turv right so please don’t do that uh the the point that the low voter turnout is there is a fact and that is the reason why markets are shaking a little bit because of that same point is this really crazy will this uh is this like a horrible thing for the market now let me tell you clearly I’ll tell you my own logic behind that okay I feel that is this uh is this bad is the lower water water turnout bad yes it is sad but the point is that I don’t feel that it is going to have a big impact on the market okay when I when I share the FI data okay when I share the FI data when I share the retail data everyone will feel that oh my God what is this and that is the time value even you will understand that why certain news are made as headlines and why some sort of fear is instilled in the minds of retail individual investors and why they are on the losing side whereas fi are on The Winning Side okay when I share the data you’ll understand what point I’m trying to make okay so if you ask me lower bter turnout ratio is it bad it is bad it should not happen but is this like is this like something terrible for the market I doubt okay I really don’t feel so it’s terrible for the market uh so Point number one no no big fear if the lower the if the water turnout ratio is a little bit lower okay second thing is the rising Bond Ys in the US market if bond yields Rise Again simple logic if if I am uh an Institutional Investor I have Indian equity on one side I have us Bonds on the other side if the US bond yields are rising I investor what can I do I can pull out my money from the Indian market and I can put it in the bonds where I can get a good yield and that to at comparatively lower risk so if the bond yields are rising definitely that’s not a good sign for our Indian market third thing I also read so this could also have triggered some sort of sell-off so I hope you have understood the first two reasons of sell-off in our Indian stock market number one is uh the lower voter turnout and number two is about the rising us bond yields but if the in FIS are pulling out money from our Indian stock market are they putting it entirely in the US bonds answer is no in fact I read it in one or two uh news articles that they’re also putting this money in Chinese market Chinese stock market and Hong Kong stock market okay you might have heard about Hing okay and all these uh indices for China and Hong Kong right uh so talking about that many experts feel that the Chinese stock market and the Hong Kong stock market are currently lower in valuation as compared to the Indian stock market I’m repeating I read this in the news that Chinese stock market and Hong Kong stock market are comparatively lesser valued as compared to Indian stock market and that could be one of the reasons why institutional investors are pulling out money from Indian stock market and are putting it in the in these markets okay now if you ask me is this bad this is bad from an Indian perspective no doubt about that but I feel that right now we are trading at higher valuations reason is simple because the story that India is radiating right now is it is India boss it is it is the future it is the next big thing which is going to happen I said this in one of uh one of the events that I had been uh we have now moved from an incredible India to an inevitable India right so uh if that be so if we are in that you know driver’s seat then we are want to command higher valuations and that is the reason why institutional investors will also understand at some point in time that of course for them as well geographical diversification is a must they are going to diversify they are going to put money in other markets as well but they will have to have a bigger allocation in India because this country has a promising future right so uh yes uh that so I hope this is also clear that the second Point Rising yields is leading to some sort of sell-off from the Indian markets and money is being put in US bonds plus as I mentioned that’s not the only place where the money is being put also it is being put in the Chinese markets and in the Hong Kong markets okay third thing is that uh the the big players today beat HDFC bank so top five constitu of nifty right the highest constituent of nifty everyone knows is HDFC Bank followed by Reliance Industries then I think we have ICI we have enosis we have Lassen and tuo right so out of these I think INF forces was the one which was in green today if I recollect properly but L&T today saw a huge fall and one of the top five constituents in Nifty if that falls by like more than 6% is that going to lead to a big fall answer is obviously yes okay now when I tried to understand that why did lnt really go down because when I was reading uh some quick results of lente I found uh let me just pull out the data just give me a [Music] second yes uh so I read that the domestic orders increased by 177% on a year-on-year basis International orders contributing to 35% of the total so domestic orders have increased that’s a good thing for the full Financial year lnt received orders worth 3.03 trillion 31% increase compared to the previous year which is FY 23 so all in all if you ask me about the order flow that is great so where was the problem I think one big problem was the margins the margin guidance that they reduced and they reduced it to somewhere around I think 8.2 8 8. to 8.3 from 8.5 so if you ask me again that was not a huge reduction in the margin guidance but overall they also mentioned about supply chain disruption then uh ongoing certain conflicts uh at at a global level right they could lead to supply chain disruptions and all in all uh in spite so I’ll tell you honestly I I felt that L&T results were not that bad okay but overall sentiment took it down and if you ask me one more point from the technical analysis perspective okay it’s a fantastic example of a textbook head and shoulder pattern okay I will I will share my screen and uh I’ll just remove all my drawings we were just you know discussing lnt chart and uh you know whenever I teach technical analysis I always say that there are two types of uh chart patterns which come up one is like a textbook chart pattern and one is like you’ll have to imagine a little bit you’ll have to keep your thinking a little bit wide open then you’ll be able to visualize that technical analysis C chart so I’m just sharing my screen and this is a classic example of a head and shoulder pattern so if you see here this is the left shoulder this is the head this is the right shoulder and you can see a breakdown okay so even if I were to just draw a quick head and shoulder pattern for you so I’m not using the tool of Head and Shoulder but just quickly drawing it for you left shoulder head right shoulder and breakdown correct for those who know how to calculate the downward Target if this is the height of the head ideally we clone this height and we put this height from the breakdown okay so this is how we calculate that this could be the price up to which it could go again not no calls nothing everyone understands that I’m just trying to teach you how technical analysis can be used to analyze where could the stock possibly lead it to okay always understand I say this thousand And1 times during so whenever I have uh you know when I recorded my technical analysis batch in that also I’ve mentioned that it’s it’s not a 100% thing these are game of probabilities so probability of this stock going downwards by another few points so like here you can see up to this level probability is high but this does not guarantee that it will go down mandatorily okay so uh I hope you have understood classic example of a textbook head and shoulder pattern right so uh all these points so three points uh till now we discussed number one we said political uncertainty number two we talked about Rising Bond deals number three we talked about Nifty top constituents uh like Reliance or HDFC bank or we did talk about L and tuo they not performing that great and in fact Larson and tubo uh cracking down by almost 6% that was definitely not a good sign right so all in all if you ask me that all these were the important points till now but one more very very very very important point is that the fourth point which is about fi data okay how to interpret fi data and how retail individual investors whom we have been praising for quite a long time you you all who are watching the live stream I believe 99.9% people are in the category of retail individual investors uh we always say that retail individual investors have become a big you know big positive for the market it’s we who move the market we have been talking so nice things about retail individual investors but when I show you one data point you’re going to be like what are we doing we definitely want to say that so I’m going to share this fourth point but before that I can see some important uh messages I thought the fourth point is likes good one RI G but yes I I take that right away 2,000 as usual as usual so I’m going to share the ratio with you all people who watch my channel they they really just ignore the likes Point 201700 people who are watching our Liv stream 372 people have like liked the Liv stream this is crazy right this is this is not even this is barely 15% of number of viewers who are watching so please take that extra effort of taking your hand near the mouse smashing the like button if you are watching on the mobile that’s very easy you can just do like done okay it’s it’s that easy 2,800 people watching live now and 600 people have smashed the like button come on at least 50% at least okay so I am going to talk about the fifth Point uh the fourth fourth point right now which is the FI data something really really really really important Point coming up so I’m going to share my screen here we go everyone pay attention now uh one one comment caught my attention so when can we expect a mutual fund from your side R mutual fund R mutual fund K let’s do that one day okay okay CH so as of now immediately no plans okay but we’ll take that okay CH so let us go to slideshow yes this is the FI data that me and my team have pulled out okay even if you can’t see some data uh it might be possible that on your mobile screen uh some data is not clearly visible but I’m going to read out the data as well so just listen to what I’m saying carefully okay so on 8th May that is till yesterday till yesterday you can see how much has been the sell off in the market uh 6,600 crores have been sold yesterday 3,600 crores sold day before yesterday and on 6th of May 2,168 crores sold the day before that that is the selling by fiis in the cash segment I’m not talking about F segment right now okay because sometimes you know in the fendo they will take trades uh as a hedge position okay so I’m not going to cover fendo data right now for FIS I’m just going to take the data of cash segment how much they have sold okay and month till date they have sold roughly around 15,000 crores okay now if you take these three four years three four days data you’ll see that in these three to four days itself Market has corrected quite a bit okay so everyone understands this that more and more fi selling will lead to a market Fall okay all our Channel viewers Know This Much Point very clearly right now that if I start selling more and more that is going to lead to a sell off all our Channel viewers already know about that I’ll show you some more points now okay now let’s understand what happened in January 2024 so what we going to do we are going to try and understand what happened in January how much was the FI sell off and we’ll try and correlate with how did the markets react to that again I’m repeating even if the charts are not visible data is not visible it’s okay I’m going to read that out for you in January 2024 first month this year fi sold off in cash segment again I’m repeating one last time I’m going to tell you only figures fi cash segment okay 35,9 77 crores worth of you know that is a worth that is the amount that FIS have sold in the cash Market okay is that a big number yes how much did the markets fall almost 1.77% so that’s a cut of almost 385 points okay what happened in February February they sold another 15,000 crores almost 16,000 crores how much did the market Fall point no it did not fall it in fact went up by 0.13% 27 points negligible okay so the moment FIS are selling huge like 35,000 crores we did see a cut almost 2% gone 15,000 15,000 CR this and that will absorb that’s okay okay but only 3,300 crores of buying from the FIS only 3,300 cres and markets bounced by 2.12% wasn’t that crazy 2.12% with 3,000 crores of buying and once they sell 35,000 crores we are down by almost quarter to 2% okay and what has happened in April till date this is scary till date April 2024 so last month of course we are talking about we are not talking about May till date but April uh so till date was a wrong wording that I used for April it is for the last month again 35,000 sold 35,000 crores worth uh you know cash segment may they sold off but again markets were more or less flat so once we see such kind of data we start saying that F whatever they want to do they can do anything it’s R retail individual investors who actually manage the show these days and we are the ones who rule the market these days we we say this quite a bit but wait pict we are going to discuss that but let’s understand one or two more data points as well uh quick just one or two right now if I tell you from August to October okay last year I’m talking about from August October how much did FIS sell 20,000 CR 26,000 CR 29,000 crores and how much did markets fall off they fell by qu to 4% almost 800 points in these three months in November okay in November they sorry they sold they bought worth 3,900 crores and uh next in December 31,000 crores 32,000 CR the what and markets went up by 14% 14 % okay so whenever FIS are selling by Leaps and Bounds markets is falling okay but with a even a very small Buy Signal from that side Market is bouncing like anything okay wait wait now it is important to understand one or two more data points I also read this fi is not the sole movers anymore and that is what we tried to even understand why why are we saying this why retail individual investors have become so powerful let’s read out few data points mutual funds ownership and NSC listed companies reached at an all-time high of 8.92% in 3 months ended March 2024 propelled by net inflows of rupees 8153989491 retail individual investors either directly investing or investing via mutual funds that will of course go into the DI category we are really putting in a lot of funds but one more interesting data okay read this mutual funds sip stood at 8.4 crores it’s mutual fund sip accounts I’m talking about mutual fund sip accounts stood at 8.4 crores and please read the next figure total amount collected through sips during March 2020 24 was 19,27 crores okay when we saw this selling selling was let’s take an example of August August 20,000 was sold 20,000 crores was sold off okay amount amount of 20, 620 crores was sold off and what are we saying a FIS you selling 20,000 crores worth worth in the cash segment no worries our sip collection itself is 19,000 271 crores are the retail individual investors I’m as I’m saying right either directly by putting their money in the equity Market or through mutual funds through dis it’s crazy amazing okay but this doesn’t mean that retailers still 100% dominate the market now why are we saying this this is a very disturbing point that I’m going to share with you today okay 100 person attention for the next only two minutes what first first we’ll talk about who spotted the winners okay agreed that we are in command we are retail individual investors are putting money in the market we are showing that much confidence in the market everything is understood but understand this who spotted the winners okay number of companies where Holdings increased so what what are we saying that whenever the fiis are hold are increasing their holding in companies how many companies did they increase their holding in let us say 594 companies I’m repeating 100% attention Okay fiis increased their holding in 594 companies okay and in that quarter where they increased their stake in that quarter the average stock price change during that quarter was 2.3% up okay so whenever fi increased their stake in one company no in 594 companies average those stock prices whatever companies they administered they Rose by 2.3% good now we have to understand if retail individual investors are increasing their stake in some companies what is happening to the average stock price I’m going to I’m going to just wait on this uh snipp it and I want you all to tell me that in how many company so here I’m not so I hope you have understood about fi right fi is increasing their holding by 594 in a specific quarter Average stock price is increasing by 2.3% I’m going to stop sharing in like next 10 seconds you have to tell me in how many companies are retail individual investors increasing their holding and when they’re increasing the holding in that company what is happening to the average stock price okay I’m going to stop sharing and let me see your answers now I want to see your answers when retail individual investors are increasing their stake what is happening to the stock price M so pradep has got the answer the first answer has been given by Pradip G 994 companies okay okay I think this is 8% down and I think uh evil King gaming also samip has also given the correct answer on an average so if you say retail individual investors whenever they are increasing their stake vial I’m going to talk about decreasing whenever we are putting more money let us say 994 companies we put money by retail individual investors on an average the portfolio the stocks are going down by 7% very saddening data isn’t it now I’ll share you one more data point okay what happens when the stocks are being sold off okay what happens when fii sell off number of companies where fi decreased their holding okay number of companies where FIS decreased their holding how many companies 689 companies where fi decreased their holding okay and after that what happened the stock price fell down by 2.72% on an average now what does this mean everyone please Focus for the next one or two minute assume that I I am an FIA okay assume that I’m an institution and I a foreign institutional in institution okay foreign Institutional Investor I am basically I do my own analysis and I feel that these 1 2 3 4 XY Z whatever companies I feel that their performance is not going to be that great their quarterly results are not that good The Guidance that the management has given is not that great okay overall industry analysis whenever I’m doing it’s not that great their annual report especially when I read uh the management discussion and Analysis I feel that yes there are certain opportunities but management is not able to tap into that and maybe their competitors might eat up their market share based on all these I feel that I should not be holding this stock anymore and I sell off how many companies 689 companies where I’m decreasing my holding after I sell what has happened on an average stock price has gone down by 2.72% okay so can I say fi’s analysis was correct yes now again I’m going to wait for 15 seconds 20 seconds you have to tell me in how many companies RIS have decreased their holding in a specific quarter and after they have sold off what happened to the stock price you have to tell me how many companies did retail individual investors sell off their holding and after they sold what happened to the stock price [Music] are you getting me Ganesh janh says whenever we are decreasing the holding almost 699 companies and stock price have stock prices have risen by 8.88% is this RI G also giving the same answer 6.99 so many people crazy data just crazy is what samitra says mind mind blown right even when I read this I was like in that with seral t she was like actually that’s what happened today when I when I read this data crazy data I mean and why does this happen again boils down to Basics why does this happen retail individual investors are impatient retail individual investors are going to get panicked just because of some news who creates the Panic many of times I can say news are floated okay news I mean I’m not saying that fake news are floated absolutely not news to okay it is a real news but whenever the news is there if a bubble is created around this is this is crazy everyone start starts talking about that those who have not done their homework rightly those who have not done their analysis rightly this is where the confidence of holding on to your stocks is going to get lower and lower and lower okay so many of times unfortunately retail individual investors invest solely based on tips unfortunately uh they will just ask their friends that coner stock lay with stock to buy and they they’re going to invest and that is where their confidence itself is going to be low n says institutional investors create this Panic okay but I mean it is up to us right whether we should get panicked or not like today’s fall after today’s fall those retail individual investors who are going to get panicked they are going to be the weak hands they are going to be the ones who are going to sell off markets can still go downwards still many retail individual investors are going to get panicked and they’re going to sell off their nice stocks also where they’re fundamentally strong they’re going to sell off okay so absolutely SV says tiendra so if you want to have that conviction to hold on you need to study okay study can be so I always say this right so possibility number one just as an example if you are one of my Pro investor members go through the detailed videos that I’m telling you it will give you a lot of information about the company and if you if you actually consume that information if you do a little bit of your own analysis also that will give you so much more confidence to hold on to those stocks right so again it’s it’s not it’s not compulsory like it’s not school syllabus it’s not College syllabus no one is going to Grant you marks for that but if you want to hold on to any stock with conviction fundamental analysis is a must is a must then and only then you will get to have that confidence to hold on to that stock for a longer time even if it that stock has gone 1X 2x 3x whatever so 1X 2xx so 2x 3x that will help you to stay invested in that okay so for those who have still not enrolled for my fundamental analysis course it’s never too late markets may see some sort of Correction in 2019 markets have corrected post election 2014 same old story 2009 same old story 2004 same old story so you can have an opportunity to see some sort of Correction in the market and if that be so you should be well prepared you should know how to search for fundamentally strong stocks so if you want to have that opportunity please don’t forget to check my course on fundamental analysis that will help you to stay invested in a stock with conviction because how to analyze that stock is very important you can also consider joining my Pro investor member ship which will uh which will definitely help you to uh get more and more knowledge about companies from different different sectors right so this is the coupon code for you live stream this is going to be uh active only till 12 midnight uh so this is where you can uh enroll with this coupon code for some better uh for a better valuation of my courses as well uh all should be done your courses promotion absolutely Ravi is saying you should do more promotion about your courses three courses he he’s saying uh fundamental analysis technical analysis and valuation he’s saying that he has also done that so all three are important but I I feel fat absolutely valuation also is important but fundamental analysis technical analysis both are absolutely important and I feel that so possibility number one you go for fundamental analysis Pro investor membership technical analysis or if you want I think right now you have an opportunity also I’m running a 21 days technical analysis challenge I did a separate live stream uh yesterday so I’m not going to go into the details of that but I will share this in my pinned comment so in the next 21 days imagine something like this if you do my course plus side by side you attempt the 21 days challenge my God in a matter of one month I’m sure you’ll be like you’ll be having lot of information lot of knowledge and when whenever you enter any challenge then it becomes so much fun to get bite-sized knowledge every day you’ll have certain questions uh for our so these 21 days uh challenges are there available for my invest in India community and my invest in India Community also has a WhatsApp group where people interact with each other today some amazing discussion was going around Tata power in the group I keep an eye to whatever is going on in the group anyone messing up till date no one has messed up no one has given tips and this and that but people give their views people give their own educational perspectives it’s it’s fun uh Ravi G is saying all the best for the 21 days challenge guys exactly the challenge starts tonight at midnight so anyone who wants to enroll it’s just two hours left uh and uh for my invest in in in India Community also we are giving special discounts uh this is just the Second Challenge and that is the reason why we are offering big discounts on our monthly membership and on the yearly membership as well Puja if you can just uh exact Puja has pasted the link n.i invest inindia also share the coupon codes as well I’m just telling this uh orally it’s India 25 uh for uh the monthly Challenge and India 40 for the yearly membership so India 25 for the monthly membership India 40 for the yearly membership for those who are not sure whether they should really go ahead for the yearly membership or not of course I will not uh say that without you know any second thought go for yearly membership first experience this okay you may think about going ahead with monthly membership uh those who have been a part of uh the community it’s fun so uh you know amazing but definitely go ahead with this uh Community uh definitely Puja is fast okay right so all these links you’ll find in the description box so without uh wasting much more time uh again I should not be using the word wasting time this is an opportunity for me to to tell you about the different courses about the different uh you know initiatives that me and my team are taking and I believe that uh because I should take this positively Ram is saying that she spends 50% of her time promoting her courses 30% time beating around the bush on data points no no uh I don’t agree with this Rams you are our community member I take this as a feedback but uh I I definitely feel that 30% time beating around the bush that is not the case right it takes lots and lots and lots of Hard efforts absolutely mading time we spend in finding data validating it and we check whether all these data points are correct or not and then and only then we present it in front of everyone right so it’s not easy to find so much data a lot of data is available on the internet sometimes exact contradicting data is also available if you have seen my video on AR C when a news came up which which said that when re fell down by I think 7 8% the other day and uh there were two news two different news articles that I shared and I mentioned that you know one was about uh a case where one of the news article mentioned that it will not impact the profitability it will be routed through the investment reserves the second article said that it will directly impact the profitability as that amount will get debited directly to pnl now if I were to just beat around the bush I would just pick up one news article and present it right in front of you and say this is the case that is not the that is not the case we we try and dig down on a lot of data points and uh you know coming up with that definitely takes uh loads and loads and loads of efforts so sorry like like you know I I I disagree with your point right uh it’s never beating around the bush if I don’t know anything if I don’t know a specific point I would say I’ve said this so so many times on our Liv stream that you know I I’ve not tracked that stock I I have not really studied that Stu okay so you are uh my uh you know Community member so I appreciate the feedback but I feel it’s my responsibility to respond to the feedback as well right uh even uh I rii I think was asking about where did you get the FI data it’s from Prime database again it was based on one of the news articles that I referred to and and in that the prime database uh was the main source from where uh actually the data was sourced right all right um absolutely absolutely I’m getting a lot of uh yeah okay um right right right see okay okay good work thank you thank you a lot of people are saying good work you’re the best great patience thank you thank you ignore okay thank you thank you for the kind words as well right okay so with that let get back to Nifty levels now okay so let’s quickly go to Nifty today what I’ve done is I have deleted all the different trend lines and supports and resistance everything I have deleted so that we start with a clean slate and that is where we will understand the whole story of nifty you’re going to understand a very nice point today we are going to understand about an inside bar okay totally different concept which we have not discussed till date I’m going to quickly share some data points on that okay so if you see a right from what right from January 24th we have been seeing this as a trend okay low high higher low higher high higher low higher high similar low similar High and the question is that what about this low now okay so what I’m going to do is I’m going to draw a trend line okay so Al T let’s draw this trend line and if I were to disconnect this okay so if you see here here intraday it touched this trend line and came back here also there was so it did honor this trend line on this day that is the 19th of April it was a gap down opening But ultimately it closed above the trend line only okay okay but today is the first time since what since January 24th that this longterm trend line has been broken okay that’s that’s a big sign of concern this long-term trend line has been broken is this giving me com is is this giving me Comfort no this is not okay now let’s try and understand okay this is broken then what what is the next support for that so this was the previous low on an intraday basis so I’m just going to put Al Ed here this is what 21,800 L 21792 point something something so 783 point something so I’ll round it off to 21,800 okay is that a very important support level answer is yes based on uh the weekly uh pivots so if you see here based on weekly pivot also if you see here 22,0 and20 is a weekly pivot so tomorrow if it closes below this then a weekly level of R1 is also going to be taken out so we have to be careful when we see tomorrow’s closing as well but on a daily candle again the S2 is at 21767 so again 21767 if I want to round off it will come to 21,800 level okay so based on trend line I don’t feel that as of now 21,800 even if we take this low this is 21,700 so again everyone you can write this down maybe 21,700 21,800 I think this is a level which ideally should be honored by the market we don’t want to be into those retail individual investors category who first sell off and once they sell off after that the those stocks rally okay we don’t want to be in that category we want to be in that category where others are panicking it’s okay but we are not going to panic we are going to believe on the market overall strength of the market and we are going to hold on we are going to hang on to our important stocks which are fundamentally strong stocks right so now if you see here whatever is this level 21,7 I hope this point is clear 21,700 level 21,800 level okay so this is now understood agreed now let’s also understand about something called as an inside bar okay now if you see here this is called so any candle which has a big body will be called as a mother candle and typically this candles are more relevant if they come at the end of some Trend okay towards the end of a trend it could be towards the end of an uptrend or towards the end of a downward Trend whatever is the case Okay so this will be called as a mother candle now we’ll have to dra first I’ll just draw uh line so this is the weak I’m just zooming this very to its highest possible level so that the lines are correct so I I hope everyone is clear the high high of that Wick is what I joined and plus the lower point of the wick is what I have joined all t Okay better okay now what does this inside bar say so this range what happened is that the second day the candle stayed within the range of this whole bar third day it it went down intraday and even on the Clos basis it did see a fall so this inside bar range breakout was given it did try to come back within the range yesterday but it did not it failed it it closed again below the range and as a result today also we saw a big selloff okay now if we come across an inside bar then how can we find the target of that inside bar okay so whatever is the height of this inside bar from the topmost point of the the week to the lower most point of the week which is in our example around 450 points once this level is broken from here the same height should be added which is 450 points so let us take from here 450 points roughly it is coming to 21,900 okay so just to wrap up the whole story as per inside bar also 20 multiple supports we are seeing based on inside bar 21,000 900 okay based on uh based on second one which is uh we talked about the previous swing lows we saw 21800 was a big one and even 21,700 was a good support so I feel loads and loads and loads of support levels in Q so please ensure that uh you are not selling in panic if you have fundamentally strong stocks write it down whenever you see a good fall in the market I feel that this is one more chance that you are going to get to enter at a discounted price even if Market Falls you should be happy for those who are the duky atmas who could not enter at comparatively lower levels markets may give you some chance to enter at a little bit lower levels so please try and ensure that you have uh the list ready with you of all your favorite stocks all their fundamentally strong stocks uh and you know you you actually uh keep an eye you keep a close eye and maybe think about re-entering them at at good levels right so I hope whatever points oh my God so today we talked about so many points we kickstarted the data with political uncertainty then we talked about us bond yields then we talked about Nifty uh companies that nifty 50 cut off five companies where L&T basically was not performing well one amazing data that we talked about was about the FI data the the retail individual investors data how RIS sell in panic and then you know they are not able to enjoy the good profits is also what we checked and very important today we saw was about one New Concept of an inside bar so all in all I hope you have understood uh how how the overall analysis can be done right uh so let us quickly now get started we’ll we’ll do the live stream for another 10 minutes maybe uh by the way I hope you have noticed the small change what is the small change write it in the comments till I drink water [Music] H I understand no bottle [Music] L and glass I don’t know in we call it as tamb no plastic yes well just just as all thanks to you uh to to all my members out here and to all my viewers out here uh gani glass were suu in Tamil marati we call either tambia or this is actually called as a guu in marati and guu in marati and suu in Tamil some similarity all right in Hindi it’s l okay all right now let’s come quickly to questions another 10 minutes saying now heartbeating slowly after watching live stream question okay I’m getting so many new names m in Telugu wow okay l in K also okay so now going back to questions idfc first bank showing Poland flag pattern for long time and available at lower price let me just so whenever you are posting about any specific stock uh also mention the time frame right so that it becomes a little bit easy and quick for me uh to check which uh time frame I have to check uh so the your one was about idfc First Bank yes idfc First Bank Al okay flag and pool idfc first man in a monthly you may call that one minute okay yes so the monthly if you see here the pole and a downward sloping fla flag maybe but there is no breakout yet so can’t be considered right now uh it has to have a breakout then only it’ll be fun right Ashwin says Hi rashna is it advisable to consider accumulating more stocks of Geo Finance uh at current levels giving given its recent decline of over 10% in the last few days okay so let me just pull up goo Finance I’ll pull out the daily Candlestick uh chart is not that encouraging uh let me share my screen so this is the Geo Finance C chart so if I were to just draw so till here it was in a sideways Trend and from here actually I can say that it has started its actual run up so if I were to draw a Fibonacci from here to here okay the first 23% has been taken out today itself but today I think all stocks have seen a beating uh and immediate previous support actually can be seen somewhere around 350 is levels I know this is uh 334 but even I can see some good consolidation here as well 3 334 by pivot and if I want to see the candles here so I’ll just draw an ALT so if you see here right uh the stock went up till here saw some resistance came down again went up here did not cross second day it did then a big candle breaking it immediate next day went up took uh so breakout retest bumps it could be possible that it tries and tests this level I think this is a very good level of 338 uh because it has seen some nice consolidation here in the past as well so keep an eye for 338 this is as for technical analysis fundamental analysis if you are a pro investor member of mine uh I have explained this the model the business model of Geo Finance in absolute detail so please uh find time to watch the video on Geo Finance as well right uh can we see analysis for HL Tas if you are a pro investor member yes I’ve done an absolute detailed video on HL please time find time to watch that as well right hom Moto flag poll on daily by the way hoo Moto uh if I’m not mistaken came up with good set of numbers today when the markets was were not doing well uh even today also the stock was up by I don’t remember let me just see 3% wow okay so yes flag and pole kind of yes not uh not very clear flag and pole for it’s not like we’ll have to stretch our imagination too much uh so okay not a very clear flag and pole for hero [Music] Moto your analysis on tataa power has it broken crucial levels if so what is the next important support level tataa power uh again I’ve not taken that I mean I’ve not done the analysis of this stock on a fundamental analysis level basis but let me just quickly pull up uh the data based on technical analysis so seems that I’ve tracked this long back maybe I okay a I forgotten to share the screen one minute one minute I forgot to share the screen uh t power here is it for you here you can see it was a clearcut cup and handle but as per cup and handle target has already been met uh from the breakout level if I were to just check right from this breakout level Fibonacci from here it was going up and up and up so 23% is at this level this is the 38% at 391 I know that uh one of the Institutional Investor has initiated uh coverage on tataa power saying that it will go down by another some 40% or 45% uh I read it uh but overall I’ll be honest right the overall the power sector per se is so bullish I’m so bullish on the whole power sector right now I I don’t really see any reason as to why uh they were so bearish that it’ll go down by around 40 45% but we not comment on it because I’ve not checked that stock fundamentally uh so you know it’ll be tricky to answer that so let’s see if I find time I’ll definitely check that stock fundamentally and then maybe do some comment on tataa power about our favorite stock is it good level to enter R around 51 for a fresh investor for longterm in sip mode longterm sip so no tension by the way if you read uh I was I was telling about it uh you know that when I did the analysis for re and PFC and I released a video and I said there were two contradicting views which were about uh one one view mentioned that whatever is the new provisioning Norm that is also draft but if it comes then one one was of the opinion that whatever is the provision that will take a hit on the profitability the other was like No it’s it’s below the line item basically it will be routed through reserves and the chair chairman of Rec has given a clarification I think that happened yesterday or day before yesterday and he mentioned that it will not impact the profitability it will not impact the profitability it will be rooted through the reserves okay so uh good one for I mean of course a good one uh I’ll share my screen I have um some data or R I’ve shown this I guess uh this was a triangle it was a break out went up uh I mean now now again see this is an example I gave an example of nifty today right so this is like an inside bar ideally if it were to be a textbook inside bar then this body should have been a little bit more for this candle okay it should have been a bigger body but if you can see here if I consider this as a other candle this is within it this is inside it this is inside it okay now we have to see on which side does this break out okay if it breaks out on the upper side it may go up by this much okay if it breaks on the lower side on the lower side then it will go down by that same point okay so if you are talking about this stock from an sip perspective a let’s see what has happened with big red candles okay we’ll just see quickly December 23 big red candle cut off 7% 7% cut okay and this was the level top top level was three 436 covered in like 8 to 10 trading sessions okay gone delete big red candle 5.5% n taken out in another three trading sessions uh again 6% back to back actually 5% two 10% back to back this level was 53 did take some time this was Feb 24 this was taken out in April 24 but still two months okay again what this is a big red candle 78% now it’ll be interesting to see even if it breaks on either side I I really don’t I’m I really don’t get scared uh fundamentally very strong stock so if if you feel that it is a strong stock if you also feel it’s a strong stock then uh I mean you should you should write this down and do sip in good stocks okay always bye beu good night you are in UA Buu so at your place it will be like what 8:30 or something like you’re going to sleep right now at [Music] 8:30 [Music] okay r g sing well earlier I had not bought AR but after the draft which resulted in dip I bought I got full toss it was to be hit for six okay uh SN is saying as I joined today can I watch watch previous videos like PFC and RC absolutely snea you can watch previous videos as well no doubts on that so if you’re talking about Pro investor membership you can watch videos right from 2020 also okay um manjun how can I get membership without International payment manjun if you have any doubts you can uh drop a WhatsApp message to my team uh I’m just writing 90221 96678 okay my team will surely get back to you tomorrow morning uh just drop a WhatsApp any anyone who is facing any problem with any course enrollment or joining our membership uh invest India membership please drop a WhatsApp message on this number my team should be able to help you out right okay uh my previous message on Reliance M pattern broke daily and weekly let’s check for Reliance what has happened with the Reliance Industries relian is is showing weakness I have drawn so many lines here actually uh I’ll still share the screen lots and lots of drawings on the Reliance okay so this was a range bound thing for Reliance for a long time this is from it’s from August 21 and on the upper end it is October 21 such a long time it has stayed in this range then it saw a nice breakout now if I were to extend this if I were to extend it by weeks or maybe if I want to just take the body still I can say it’s again this could be like a breakout a retest so important level for reliance as well okay uh so add it to your watch list how can we pay in invest India in INR right now you can’t pay in INR but if you have any credit card wherein dollar payments are enabled you can you can pay right uh should not be a big problem and still as I mentioned still if you facing any difficulty please please drop a WhatsApp message at 90221 966 96678 my team should be able to help you out right okay just last one or two quick questions H Venda is saying this is good invest in India but payment in dollars actually Venda the point is that there are a lot of nris in that community so people from more than 20 countries are a part of that community so it becomes easier for them to do dollar payments but yes uh the tech team is on it and the India the INR thing is also uh they are rolling out in in a month or two but just for one or two more months you’ll have to go outad with dollars all right any one or two more quick questions no no jubilant food please no it I mean that stock is not at all performing well jubilan food work once once one of my darling stocks it is in my portfolio no doubts on that uh miserable performer in my portfolio uh but yeah I mean yeah absolutely IR IRCTC still is back in profit after the IRCTC has given a nice run up but why why currently I’m not talking so much about ircts is that I feel there are some other stocks which are performing better than IRCTC and that is why I’m talking more on those stocks uh but you know uh talking about jubil and food work they have not given good quarter results and for long quarters four five quarters back to back I I mean I saw uh a lot of IPL matches I at least three four IPL matches I saw last quarter uh last season I mean even for the World Cup matches I I had gone for the India Pakistan match and huge line at Domino’s Pizza counters still that quarter result was also bad so much of people so many people coming down to your outlet to consume Pizza still if the results are bad like oh God nothing is going to was my so I felt very bad okay okay okay okay yes tat motor Spike today that was because of the expected results tomorrow so it will be interesting to watch uh how how the results come up right there are going to be some stocks which are not going to perform well it’s okay you should have some good stocks I’m sure you do have some good stocks in your portfolio as well which will cover the loss in juul work don’t make that mistake that if jubilant is doing loss in your portfolio then you have to take out profits from that stock only that that is a mistake that people do don’t do that mistake okay so if Whenever there is any loss in a specific stock in my portfolio instead of covering up the loss from that same stock what I would do is I would try and hunt for some good stocks try and get gain more profit in that so that this loss can be set up from set off from that profit from some other stocks and I’ll get more you know I’ll be in much more comfortable position be everyone in our group go for pizza contribute to quarter see I think the problem is is with uh you know overall they’re not able to increase their prices of pizzas plus their operating profit I’ll share the screen one let me show you where the pain lies jubilant Food Works I’m sharing my screen just give me a second see this is the quarterly profit for jubin Food Works and if you see here see their sales are also stagnating is one one big pain point so if you see here from last so many quarters so 1255 1301 all in cros 1332 1270 1335 1369 13 sales are also not jumping very high okay and their operating profit margin which used to be around what 26% 26% 26% now constantly going down 22% 177% 18% gone a little bit up to 20% % 20% but now the problem is that even below operating profit now if I deduct the interest portion their depreciation look at the PBT man I mean earlier it used to be what 165 crores 161 let me just compare only December only Q3 okay 165 crores December 2020 179 cres December 2021 111 crores December 22 86 crores 86 crores December 2023 very very sad story I hope the management does something and uh you know they they come up with with some uh good good option right all right 1040 manun that’s what I told right currently only dollar payments are available for invest in India but you can definitely contct my team exactly sa Kumar you you said it rightly a lot of competition from unorganized sector as well true all right done and dusted for the day 10:40 we spoke for almost one hour 10 minutes today’s stream was a little bit long stream but I think uh today we spoke about a lot of points uh one Concept in technical analysis we learned for the very first time today what was that name of the concept quickly I want to check that in the comment section ffat one New Concept totally New Concept which we which we had not discussed till date too much to ask for mother candle okay but that’s a part of what inside bar absolutely inside bar that was that was one new thing we talked about the mother candle and by the way the inside bar is like called as the baby candle okay we did talk about that the FI data the retail individual investors data uh we talked about political uncertainty we talked about so many things today I hope you all enjoy today’s live stream I’ll see you on next Thursday till then take care J and bye-bye

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What is covered?
00:00 – Start
00:30 – Introduction
03:51 – Top Reasons for market fall
17:50 – FII data and impact on Nifty
39:00 – Reason for REC fall
41:00 – Inside bar and Nifty levels
50:00 – Q & A session

#CARachanaRanade #ShareMarket #Nifty