Refund never received

I never received my refund in the mail, the IRS tracker said it was mailed in early April. I submitted a claim that it was lost, stolen, etc. I have a couple of questions:

1) What are the chances someone cashed my check? Wouldn’t they need a bank account or an ID in my name at the very least?

2) Does it actually take the full 45 days to get the replacement check?

Thanks in advance!